Merger

Blog Merger

The AFL and NFL merged in 1966, ending the rancor and player stashing that existed between the leagues and ushering the Super Bowl era.

I can’t say if I’m going to play Tex Schramm or Lamar Hunt in this scenario, or even that you’re about to get the Super Bowl of Cowboys blogs, but  I can report that a blog merger has been in the works for some time and this Friday, Raul and I will join forces with Dave Halprin at Blogging the Boys.com.

The merger will bring together the two biggest, longest-standing Cowboys blogs and offer readers the biggest and best Cowboys blogging experience.

We’ll keep posting here through Friday but starting Saturday, you’ll find Raul and me and our story archive at http://www.bloggingtheboys.com.

You will have to re-register but I’m assuming many of you are already readers of both sites.

NFL

Which Teams Have the Best Corner Units?

In part four of the series assessing cornerbacks using K.C. Joyner’s YPA stats from 2004 through 2007, I move from individual assessments to unit ratings. Joyner has a new set of ratings in Scientific Football 2008. I’m not going to rely on these numbers, though I will relay that Dallas finished ‘07 in the top ten.

I’ve chosen to overlook his ‘07 ratings for two reasons. First, they’re exclusive to 2007. Joyner rates the corner units as they performed in ‘07. That’s fine, but with Adam Jones joining the Cowboys’ roster, fans are interested in predictive stats.

For that reason I’m using any and all of Joyner’s numbers from the past four years. I figure more is better. As you’ve seen, a player’s YPA’s can fluctuate wildly from year to year. If we want an idea of how a corner is likely to perform in ‘08, I think it’s best to use all the data that’s available. In Terence Newman’s and Anthony Henry’s cases, I’m using their four-year averages, since those numbers are available. In Jones’ case, Joyner has two years of numbers on him, so I’ll go with their average and will do the same with every other CB.

I’m also rating the units three deep, since nickel backs are vital in this era of spread sets. This will lead to some omissions that cannot be helped. For example, Buffalo will be playing a rookie, Leodis McKelvin at one corner spot this year, so I can’t put a number on his performance.

Lastly, I’m simply averaging the three player’s YPAs here, which does not give proper weight to each player’s contribution, so consider these “soft” averages. Therefore, I’m going to place the units in tiers, rather than in a column. By coincidence, there are only five units that have an average YPA below 7.0, so they form my pantheon. Here they are in alphabetical order, with each player’s average YPA in parentheses:

1. Chicago — Nathan Vasher (5.7), Charles Tillman (6.6), Trumaine McBride (7.1)
Vasher is the best corner we have not discussed yet, because I have not rated players with only two seasons of YPAs. Vasher was top notch in ‘05 and ‘06 but missed 12 games last year because of injury. McBride filled in and posted a very respectable 7.1 YPA.

2. Dallas — Terence Newman (6.2), Adam Jones (6.3), Anthony Henry (7.4)
Jones has an average near Newman’s and has a career peak topping Newman’s, posting an outstanding 5.4 YPA in ‘06. (Newman’s career best is 5.7.) If Jones can approach this number again, he’ll be a starter.

3. Green Bay — Charles Woodson (6.5), Al Harris (7.5), Jarrett Bush (6.6)
Harris gets a lot of love from the press, but his YPA is lower than Anthony Henry’s. Like Henry, he’ll break up passes but give up some huge gains. Bush was very good in his first year at nickelback.

4. Pittsburgh — Deshea Townsend (6.3), Ike Taylor (7.4), Bryant McFadden (6.0)
It’s feast or famine with this bunch. Taylor has been consistently average at one corner and therefore draws most of the action. Townsend and McFadden have alternated so-so seasons with off-the-charts good ones. Both had YPAs below 5.5 last year. If the pattern holds, they’ll be off this season.

5. Washington — Shawn Springs (5.5), Fred Smoot (6.8), Carlos Rogers (7.1)
Springs outstanding play the past four years raises this bunch, but Smoot and Rogers have been steady and good, if unspectacular.

Who Is the Best Cornerback: Do YPA’s Mimic the SAT?

The third story in BSR’s series exploring the question, “who is the best NFL cornerback,” looks at the value of K.C. Joyner’s YPA statistic. Does it measure innate cornerbacking skill, or does it measure performance?

The Educational Testing Service, the creators of the SAT exam, long maintained that their test was uncoachable. It, like all aptitude tests, claimed to measure innate ability, what an individual was capable of achieving, not what a particular student had learned. Therefore, cramming was deemed pointless, since it would not affect a student’s outcome. This belief has been exploded in recent years, as the test has been exposed as having a clear ideological bias.

K.C. Joyner has never claimed that his yards per attempt cornerback stats measure a corner’s aptitude. They are derived from pure empirical study; Joyner looks at tape of each NFL corner each year and measures the number of throws aimed his way, the results of each throw and the number of yards gained against each player. The results would seem transparent.

Nevertheless, readers of this blog reacted to my initial posting of corner YPA averages as if the stat did measure aptitude. Several readers questioned the stats, in part because the top ten CB list did not include Champ Bailey, the Denver corner considered the game’s best by many pundits.

Bailey missed the cut, though not by much (he ranked 14th among CBs with YPAs for every one of the last four seasons). He’s lower because he lacks consistency. Here’s his line, with his overall rank by year in parentheses:

As you can see, Bailey’s averages floated in the bottom half in ‘04 and ‘05 before he posted one of the best seasons recorded in ‘06. He dropped back into the bottom half in ‘07, allowing more than three yards more per attempt that year. And it’s not as if Bailey sat on an island most of the game and was then surprised when an opposing QB deigned to throw his way. He was targeted 60 times, only marginally better than counterpart Dre Bly, who saw 78 balls, though Bly’s YPA was an awful 8.8.

Looking at this line, I see a mediocre cornerback, with three fair seasons and one incredible one. But what of that ‘06. Was it a fluke? These number suggest not:

These are the only campaigns by every down corners the past four years to average under five yards per attempt. I think what we might be seeing are a general measure of a corner’s innate capabilities. These are the guys who get 1600s in the CB SATs. In Bailey’s case, he may not be the best cover corner year in and year out but his ‘06 shows that he’s more than able to play at an elite level.

In terms of using YPA as a heuristic, we can see that a YPA in the 4s signifies a sublime season, like a pitcher with an ERA around 2.00 or a hitter with an OPS above 1.300.

So Champ Bailey can be deemed the best corner in the game if we consider peak performance. But isn’t consistency the hallmark of a top player? Would you prefer a guy who can be incredible but plays that way only once a presidential administration, or somebody who can play very well year after year? Compare Bailey to the corners with the two best YPA averages since ‘04 and see how consistency ranks higher than flash:

To answer the question, I’m sure the Denver Broncos are happy to have Bailey on one edge of their defense, but if you ask Dallas fans, they’ll gladly take Terence Newman. He bounced back in ‘07, despite his plantar fascia injury and is a good bet to jump back into the top ten with more help in the Dallas secondary.

Another aspect of YPAs that deserves mention here is how they remake the term “shut down corner.” Fans take this term literally; when a blogger posted Dominique Rogers-Cromartie’s college stats, which showed opponnents completing less than 30% of passes in his direction, another blogger belittled those numbers, saying they didn’t reveal any special performance.

In fact, if an NFL corner posted Rogers-Cromartie’s line on a consistent basis he would get fast-tracked to Canton.

Stopping opponents 50% of the time appears to be the threshold for being considered a shutdown corner. In the last three years only 38 corners have achieved this — 9 in 2005, 17 in 2006 and 12 last season. Since shutdown connotes performance far above 50%, I think that the term be discarded or ignored; shut down corners simply don’t exist.

Only once in that span has a corner topped 60% in success percentage, that coming last year when the Raiders Nnamdi Asomugha posed a 62.9% success rate. Asomugha is the hardest corner to throw against, topping 50% in each of the last three years, the only cornerback to do so.

Might Asomugha then claim to be the best corner? Perhaps, but his YPAs indicate that while it’s hard to complete a throw against him, teams gain large chunks of yards when they do.

The YPA is hardly a perfect cornerback stat, but playing with YPA stats reveals a new cornerback world, one that elevates the steady over the flashy. Corners with 1600 SATs are impressive, but it’s the guys with scores in the 1200 and 1300s, the cornerback nerds who grind day-after-day and year-after-year who have the most success.

News

Blog Merger

The AFL and NFL merged in 1966, ending the rancor and player stashing that existed between the leagues and ushering the Super Bowl era.

I can’t say if I’m going to play Tex Schramm or Lamar Hunt in this scenario, or even that you’re about to get the Super Bowl of Cowboys blogs, but  I can report that a blog merger has been in the works for some time and this Friday, Raul and I will join forces with Dave Halprin at Blogging the Boys.com.

The merger will bring together the two biggest, longest-standing Cowboys blogs and offer readers the biggest and best Cowboys blogging experience.

We’ll keep posting here through Friday but starting Saturday, you’ll find Raul and me and our story archive at http://www.bloggingtheboys.com.

You will have to re-register but I’m assuming many of you are already readers of both sites.

Persons of Interest

Two guys to watch, as I’m sure Dallas is watching them:

B.J. Raji and Ron Brace, defensive tackles, Boston College

The Eagles have the two biggest DTs in this year’s crop.  They’re the only two who top 310 lbs.  Both list at 323 lbs. and either could be a needed fireplug to play on the nose and draw double teams.

The Eagles alternate an over and undershifting 4-3 with a 3-3 package.  Raji is the squattier of the two, at 6′1″, 323, but he always plays the under in the 4-3.  He’s got a massive lower body, with great power and a nifty spin move on his rushes.  He’s rated in the top half of the 2nd round right now and while a wave of early-entry juniors could push him down, defensive tackles rise.  He may be too good for Dallas’ reach.

Brace plays the nose in both B.C. schemes and he “passes the eyeball test,” as the late draft guru Joel Buchsbaum used to say.  Like Raji, he’s got a thick lower body and a low center of gravity.  He’s quick, has a strong punchout and can walk guards back to the quarterback when he’s one-on-one.  He plays in a one-gap scheme but he holds his ground very well when double-teamed.  B.C. calls a lot of zone blitzes and Brace drops into shallow coverage a lot.  Against Notre Dame, he shadowed running backs a couple of times and didn’t look lost in space.

That said, he’s a space eater, and that’s one type of player the Cowboys need.   He’s rated in the 3rd to 4th round in the early mocks I’ve seen.

Watch both of these guys if you get the chance.

Training Camp

Keith Davis to Re-join Dallas — on Monday

Now, why would the Cowboys wait to sign Davis until then?

Are more deals in the works?

If no more moves are in play, it will be interesting to see whether they cut an offensive lineman or a defensive back. If they did the former, the Cowboys would have TWELVE d-backs on their roster.

This makes Davis the second coming of Elvis Patterson. He’s not much as a coverage safety, as today’s early story pointed out. He is a good special teams player, however, and the Cowboys could always use more of those.

Fun with SF ‘08 IV: How Ken Hamlin Got His Groove Back and Saved the Secondary

Longtime BSR readers know I’ve been using Scientific Football to bash the Cowboys’ inept free safety play under Bill Parcells. For whatever reason, the Tuna neglected the spot, trying to force a strong safety, Keith Davis, into the spot, and later trying to force feed rookie Pat Watkins into the position.

Both projects failed. Here’s a chart showing the free safety direct coverage play in ‘05 under Davis, ‘06 under Watkins, and last season under Ken Hamlin. (SF also tracks deep assists, where the safeties roll up in coverage to help corners.)

After ‘05 and ‘06 it didn’t seem possible that the Cowboys’ free safety play could get any worse. Davis and Watkins ranked 36th among 36 safeties in their respective years. In other words, the Cowboys had the worst free safety play in the NFL during that time. Add in Roy Williams’ suspect coverage skills and Dallas had a gaping hole in its deep middle.

That’s not a good way to build a Super Bowl push. When Hamlin was signed in April ‘07 I wrote that regardless of whether the Cowboys got the mid-pack ‘06 Hamlin or the top-5 rated ‘05 Hamlin, they were due to improve.

Look at how much they improved. Joyner didn’t list the direct coverage stats for free safeties in this year’s book but only the late Sean Taylor produced a direct coverage YPA better than Hamlin’s. With Hamlin in the deep middle the one-play 70 yard TD pass drives Cowboys’ fans witnessed in ‘05 and ‘06 disappeared.

Hamlin’s yards allowed total is less than one quarter of what Davis allowed in ‘05. It’s less than half of Watkins’ ‘06 total. (And remember that Watkins was benched in mid-season, so his totals are only a fragment of the team total.)

If Dallas can keep its cornerbacks healthy, it can be a real force with Hamlin in the middle, no matter what type of year Roy Williams has at strong safety. Hamlin missed OTAs bargaining for a better contract but when you look at these numbers it’s hard to begrudge him one penny of his new deal.