Featured

Who Is the Best Cover Corner?

This is the first in a series of pieces on the top cover cornerbacks and secondaries.

Who is the best NFL cover corner? Who has the best coverage unit around? The question is being kicked around a lot these days, with cornerbacks getting free agent contracts that rival those of quarterbacks for sheer dollars and bonuses.

I’ve come across several lists in recent weeks, all going off reputations, some earned, some not. BSR has decided to pursue these questions with the use of the largest database of corner coverage stats around. K.C. Joyner, the author of the Scientific Football books, will soon release Scientific Football 2008, the fourth edition of his series.

Joyner’s forte is breaking down the passing game, from offensive and defensive perspectives. His CB YPA will shortly become, in my opinion, shorthand for measuring a corner’s skills, in the same way that OPS has become the one stat that can best convey a baseball hitter’s skills. It’s easy to calculate and easy to understand. It shows how many yards a corner surrendered on average every time a pass was thrown to his man.

K.C. prints out a YPA ranking every year and in this year’s book has ranked the teams by tandem, calculating the average YPAs for the starting CB duos on each team.

What he has not yet done is compile YPAs over a longer span, say the last three or four years. When he learned I was putting such a spreadsheet together, he kindly forwarded his 2007 YPA rankings, which will not be published for several more weeks, and gave me permission to publish pieces from my calculated averages. BSR readers will therefore be the first to see these numbers. If you are not a regular Joyner reader, I highly recommend his ESPN columns and his books which can be ordered here.

The spread sheet raised as many questions as it answered. Although I have four years of data at my disposal, is it fair to omit a cornerback who has only played two or three years, but at a high level? What about a player who has missed a year due to injury?

In addition, what about players who have solid numbers but show a steady decline. Should I rate them above or below a player who has a similar number but whose averages are improving?

For now, I’ve decided to offer these breakdowns as a starting point for discussion, not as the last word in the debate over which players are best and which units are best. I’m going to offer two individual lists, one showing the best cornerbacks for the last four years and one for the last three years. The reason I’m pushing the data to be comprehensive is the generally inconsistent level of CB play from one year to the next.

It’s fairly routine to see a corner, even a good one, have two stellar years, then drop off a year and then bounce back strong again. For examples, look at the lines for Deshea Townsend and Ronde Barber on the top ten list below.

I’m sure there are many factors for a dropoff. A corner might be playing hurt. He may lose his confidence for a stretch of the season or an entire campaign. His pass rush might be weaker one given year. Whatever the case, there are not many corners in my sample who strung four strong years together. Even the better ones had a so-so year somewhere in the mix.

That said, I believe that a player must display consistency in order to be considered tops at his position. So my first list will, with one exception, include only those players who have posted numbers for the last four years.

(*Charles Woodson did not get a rating in ‘05 because he was playing a rover position in Oakland’s system and did not qualify for the CB ratings.)

Some observations:

– The cornerback positon is incredibly unstable. You don’t think of corner as an attrition position, like running back, but there are only 40 players who had qualifying numbers each of the last four years. That’s just 1.25 per team. This is why cornerbacks who hit the open market make so much money. The demand for solid corners does not come close to meeting demand.

– Raise your hand if you considered Shawn Springs one of the top five corners in the game. I considered him for my top-of-my-head top ten, but he’s been the best YPA guy in the league the past four years.

– Raise both hands if you had Deshea Townsend in your top 20.

– There’s Terence Newman, Cowboys’ fans, parked at #2. His highest ranking in any given year has been 8th, but as you can see he’s been Mr. Steady. His 6.1 last year is even more impressive given his heel injury.

– In the what might have been category, check out Ken Lucas at 6th. The year he hit free agency he was rated higher by the Dallas scouting staff than Anthony Henry. Bill Parcells took the recommendation of Todd Bowles, who had coached Henry in Cleveland and who is now with the Tuna in Miami. Had Parcells pursued Lucas instead — Lucas did cost more — he might still be coaching.

– Notice the big names not on this list: Champ Bailey, Chris McAlister, Nate Clements, Asante Samuel? Inconsistency put them down the list. Bailey had one of the best years Joyner has ever recorded in ‘06, but it’s his only exceptional year the last four. He ranked in the bottom half in ‘04 and ‘05.

– Lastly, YPA tells us a lot, but don’t rush to judgments on guys who are on the list or are not. One fact that nags at me is that gambling, CBs, who Joyner calls “ball-hawks,” often have higher YPAs. Antonio Cromartie, for example, only had a 7.2 YPA last year, which is about league average. Guys like this will give up more intermediate and big throws in exchange for more picks. Conversely, CBs in cover two systems tend to have lower YPAs than they do when they play in more aggresive systems. Should we take the YPAs straight or weight them somewhat depending on a player’s personal style and scheme?

I’ll repeat, take this chart as a point of departure. Discuss.

Next: The top 10 CBs by YPA for the last three years.

Programming Note: I, like our Vice President, will be spending the next few days in an “undisclosed location.” I don’t know if his getaways involve a comely blonde, but mine will. I’ll see you folks again oh, Thursday.

Maybe.

Dallas May Be America’s Team…

but the Patriots are Hungary’s Team, dammit!

Check out this site.

It seems the Hungarians also love themselves some Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cowboys, based on visitors, are mid-pack.

NFL

Who Is the Best Cover Corner?

This is the first in a series of pieces on the top cover cornerbacks and secondaries.

Who is the best NFL cover corner? Who has the best coverage unit around? The question is being kicked around a lot these days, with cornerbacks getting free agent contracts that rival those of quarterbacks for sheer dollars and bonuses.

I’ve come across several lists in recent weeks, all going off reputations, some earned, some not. BSR has decided to pursue these questions with the use of the largest database of corner coverage stats around. K.C. Joyner, the author of the Scientific Football books, will soon release Scientific Football 2008, the fourth edition of his series.

Joyner’s forte is breaking down the passing game, from offensive and defensive perspectives. His CB YPA will shortly become, in my opinion, shorthand for measuring a corner’s skills, in the same way that OPS has become the one stat that can best convey a baseball hitter’s skills. It’s easy to calculate and easy to understand. It shows how many yards a corner surrendered on average every time a pass was thrown to his man.

K.C. prints out a YPA ranking every year and in this year’s book has ranked the teams by tandem, calculating the average YPAs for the starting CB duos on each team.

What he has not yet done is compile YPAs over a longer span, say the last three or four years. When he learned I was putting such a spreadsheet together, he kindly forwarded his 2007 YPA rankings, which will not be published for several more weeks, and gave me permission to publish pieces from my calculated averages. BSR readers will therefore be the first to see these numbers. If you are not a regular Joyner reader, I highly recommend his ESPN columns and his books which can be ordered here.

The spread sheet raised as many questions as it answered. Although I have four years of data at my disposal, is it fair to omit a cornerback who has only played two or three years, but at a high level? What about a player who has missed a year due to injury?

In addition, what about players who have solid numbers but show a steady decline. Should I rate them above or below a player who has a similar number but whose averages are improving?

For now, I’ve decided to offer these breakdowns as a starting point for discussion, not as the last word in the debate over which players are best and which units are best. I’m going to offer two individual lists, one showing the best cornerbacks for the last four years and one for the last three years. The reason I’m pushing the data to be comprehensive is the generally inconsistent level of CB play from one year to the next.

It’s fairly routine to see a corner, even a good one, have two stellar years, then drop off a year and then bounce back strong again. For examples, look at the lines for Deshea Townsend and Ronde Barber on the top ten list below.

I’m sure there are many factors for a dropoff. A corner might be playing hurt. He may lose his confidence for a stretch of the season or an entire campaign. His pass rush might be weaker one given year. Whatever the case, there are not many corners in my sample who strung four strong years together. Even the better ones had a so-so year somewhere in the mix.

That said, I believe that a player must display consistency in order to be considered tops at his position. So my first list will, with one exception, include only those players who have posted numbers for the last four years.

(*Charles Woodson did not get a rating in ‘05 because he was playing a rover position in Oakland’s system and did not qualify for the CB ratings.)

Some observations:

– The cornerback positon is incredibly unstable. You don’t think of corner as an attrition position, like running back, but there are only 40 players who had qualifying numbers each of the last four years. That’s just 1.25 per team. This is why cornerbacks who hit the open market make so much money. The demand for solid corners does not come close to meeting demand.

– Raise your hand if you considered Shawn Springs one of the top five corners in the game. I considered him for my top-of-my-head top ten, but he’s been the best YPA guy in the league the past four years.

– Raise both hands if you had Deshea Townsend in your top 20.

– There’s Terence Newman, Cowboys’ fans, parked at #2. His highest ranking in any given year has been 8th, but as you can see he’s been Mr. Steady. His 6.1 last year is even more impressive given his heel injury.

– In the what might have been category, check out Ken Lucas at 6th. The year he hit free agency he was rated higher by the Dallas scouting staff than Anthony Henry. Bill Parcells took the recommendation of Todd Bowles, who had coached Henry in Cleveland and who is now with the Tuna in Miami. Had Parcells pursued Lucas instead — Lucas did cost more — he might still be coaching.

– Notice the big names not on this list: Champ Bailey, Chris McAlister, Nate Clements, Asante Samuel? Inconsistency put them down the list. Bailey had one of the best years Joyner has ever recorded in ‘06, but it’s his only exceptional year the last four. He ranked in the bottom half in ‘04 and ‘05.

– Lastly, YPA tells us a lot, but don’t rush to judgments on guys who are on the list or are not. One fact that nags at me is that gambling, CBs, who Joyner calls “ball-hawks,” often have higher YPAs. Antonio Cromartie, for example, only had a 7.2 YPA last year, which is about league average. Guys like this will give up more intermediate and big throws in exchange for more picks. Conversely, CBs in cover two systems tend to have lower YPAs than they do when they play in more aggresive systems. Should we take the YPAs straight or weight them somewhat depending on a player’s personal style and scheme?

I’ll repeat, take this chart as a point of departure. Discuss.

Next: The top 10 CBs by YPA for the last three years.

Programming Note: I, like our Vice President, will be spending the next few days in an “undisclosed location.” I don’t know if his getaways involve a comely blonde, but mine will. I’ll see you folks again oh, Thursday.

Maybe.

Source: The Questions Are On Offense

I talked to a source who broke down the issues facing the team less than a month before training camp. Although the offense ranked 2nd overall in points, averaging just more than four touchdowns per game, I was told the organization sees its biggest questions on the offensive side of the ball. Some key points:

BSR: What are the biggest concerns on each side of the ball?

– The defense looks solid. I think the secondary looks strong, the linebackers look strong and the line looks solid. In the secondary, Terence Newman is solid, Adam Jones is solid. I think Anthony Henry didn’t look like he was 100% in the mini-camps, but he should be fine.

I think one of the rookie corners will be in the mix, though I’m not sure if it will be the one [Mike Jenkins] or the five [Orlando Scandrick]. One will be in the lineup this year and the other will be inactive. We won’t really know until they put on the pads at Oxnard.

I’ll add that I think the secondary will be improved with Dave Campo running that unit. They appeared to be better fundamentally. Nothing against the last coach [Todd Bowles] but I think Campo is an exceptional teacher and the guys know he’s got their backs.

BSR: So you don’t see an overhaul positon wise? I’m of the belief that they’ll stick with Ken Hamlin at the free and limit Roy Williams’ reps, getting him off the field when they’re in nickel and dime sets.

– Absolutely. Teams find guys like that. I also think the team is playing Hamlin right. Make him do it more than one year. If he plays well again, then you think about something long term.

BSR: What about the offensive side of the ball? Where are the weak links there?

– There are a few questions there. I think the team wants to get a better sense of its offensive line depth. They have Pat McQuistan going into his third year and Doug Free entering his second year and they moved James Marten to guard. They’ll give their starters some time but you may see the young guys going two and three quarters in some games so the team can get a really good look at them against top competition.

I also have some questions about backup quarterback. Brad Johnson is a smart guy but when he’s in there the ball goes sideways a lot. I think he’s here for 2008 but I’m sure the team has an eye out for another prospect beyond this year. 95% of the teams in this league are cooked if they lose their starting QB but if Tony Romo missed any significant time I think the Cowboys are an 8-8 team without him.

Without question, the biggest issue is at wide receiver. The team isn’t panicking yet, but I do think they have some worries about the #2 position. The offense stopped scoring touchdowns when Terrell Owens got hurt last year. Patrick Crayton is okay but he’s more of a #3 than a #2.

The team was looking for a young receiver before who could become a number one and could not find a fit.

I think they might need a little luck to fill that this year. It gets harder to fill holes once camp begins.

BSR: I know the Tom Landry Cowboys often filled holes with trades for veteran receivers. Lance Alworth, Billy Parks, guys like that. Might Dallas look at a veteran who’s dependable, in the way Keenan McCardell was for the Chargers a few years ago? And does this explain the Joe Horn rumors?

– My understanding is that Horn’s agent was given permission to shop him. The Cowboys have not called Atlanta.

BSR: So this is likely his agent trying to drum up interest?

– Yes, but if you asked me would I take Terry Glenn with nicks or Joe Horn, I’d take Glenn.

BSR: If the team can’t fill this need via trade, does this mean they’ll turn more to a guy like Felix Jones as a receiver?

– I think Jason Garrett is a guy who wants to open things up and get the ball down the field. I think one of the bigger questions is: how fast can Felix Jones learn what’s going on? He has to be a blocker, a catcher and a runner.

He’s got the potential to be a matchup problem, because he’s an explosive player, and because Dallas has T.O. and Jason Witten and Marion Barber, who can play every down, and they’re legitimate weapons, so defense can’t just lock in on him. But they will if he’s not clear on his responsibilities. It’s going to be interesting to track him in the one-on-one drills in camp, to see how he does against linebackers. Will they rag doll him, or will be be able to stay square and hold his ground?

If he doesn’t picks things up fast enough he’s Reggie Bush, a guy you draw up special plays for. And he has to be better than that. If all he can do is run special plays just for him, defenses will clue in very quickly that he’s in the game to get the ball.

News

Source: The Questions Are On Offense

I talked to a source who broke down the issues facing the team less than a month before training camp. Although the offense ranked 2nd overall in points, averaging just more than four touchdowns per game, I was told the organization sees its biggest questions on the offensive side of the ball. Some key points:

BSR: What are the biggest concerns on each side of the ball?

– The defense looks solid. I think the secondary looks strong, the linebackers look strong and the line looks solid. In the secondary, Terence Newman is solid, Adam Jones is solid. I think Anthony Henry didn’t look like he was 100% in the mini-camps, but he should be fine.

I think one of the rookie corners will be in the mix, though I’m not sure if it will be the one [Mike Jenkins] or the five [Orlando Scandrick]. One will be in the lineup this year and the other will be inactive. We won’t really know until they put on the pads at Oxnard.

I’ll add that I think the secondary will be improved with Dave Campo running that unit. They appeared to be better fundamentally. Nothing against the last coach [Todd Bowles] but I think Campo is an exceptional teacher and the guys know he’s got their backs.

BSR: So you don’t see an overhaul positon wise? I’m of the belief that they’ll stick with Ken Hamlin at the free and limit Roy Williams’ reps, getting him off the field when they’re in nickel and dime sets.

– Absolutely. Teams find guys like that. I also think the team is playing Hamlin right. Make him do it more than one year. If he plays well again, then you think about something long term.

BSR: What about the offensive side of the ball? Where are the weak links there?

– There are a few questions there. I think the team wants to get a better sense of its offensive line depth. They have Pat McQuistan going into his third year and Doug Free entering his second year and they moved James Marten to guard. They’ll give their starters some time but you may see the young guys going two and three quarters in some games so the team can get a really good look at them against top competition.

I also have some questions about backup quarterback. Brad Johnson is a smart guy but when he’s in there the ball goes sideways a lot. I think he’s here for 2008 but I’m sure the team has an eye out for another prospect beyond this year. 95% of the teams in this league are cooked if they lose their starting QB but if Tony Romo missed any significant time I think the Cowboys are an 8-8 team without him.

Without question, the biggest issue is at wide receiver. The team isn’t panicking yet, but I do think they have some worries about the #2 position. The offense stopped scoring touchdowns when Terrell Owens got hurt last year. Patrick Crayton is okay but he’s more of a #3 than a #2.

The team was looking for a young receiver before who could become a number one and could not find a fit.

I think they might need a little luck to fill that this year. It gets harder to fill holes once camp begins.

BSR: I know the Tom Landry Cowboys often filled holes with trades for veteran receivers. Lance Alworth, Billy Parks, guys like that. Might Dallas look at a veteran who’s dependable, in the way Keenan McCardell was for the Chargers a few years ago? And does this explain the Joe Horn rumors?

– My understanding is that Horn’s agent was given permission to shop him. The Cowboys have not called Atlanta.

BSR: So this is likely his agent trying to drum up interest?

– Yes, but if you asked me would I take Terry Glenn with nicks or Joe Horn, I’d take Glenn.

BSR: If the team can’t fill this need via trade, does this mean they’ll turn more to a guy like Felix Jones as a receiver?

– I think Jason Garrett is a guy who wants to open things up and get the ball down the field. I think one of the bigger questions is: how fast can Felix Jones learn what’s going on? He has to be a blocker, a catcher and a runner.

He’s got the potential to be a matchup problem, because he’s an explosive player, and because Dallas has T.O. and Jason Witten and Marion Barber, who can play every down, and they’re legitimate weapons, so defense can’t just lock in on him. But they will if he’s not clear on his responsibilities. It’s going to be interesting to track him in the one-on-one drills in camp, to see how he does against linebackers. Will they rag doll him, or will be be able to stay square and hold his ground?

If he doesn’t picks things up fast enough he’s Reggie Bush, a guy you draw up special plays for. And he has to be better than that. If all he can do is run special plays just for him, defenses will clue in very quickly that he’s in the game to get the ball.

Tony Romo, Tough ‘08 Matchups and Who Needs a 2nd Receiver? K.C. Joyner Returns, Part II

Today, K.C. turns his attention to the offensive side of the ball.

BSR: Last year your write up of Tony Romo said he was probably NFL QB at intermediate range throws. How would you rate his ‘07 game. Did he improve, regress or stay about the same?

Joyner: I think he regressed a little bit. His bad decisions increased. I think teams forced him to be more patient, to be willing to go down the field in 10 to 12 yard throws. He wasn’t always willing to do this, as you saw in the Buffalo game.

BSR: I’m amazed at the amount of abuse he gets because the Cowboys lost to the Giants. He’s only played one full season in the league and he’s sometimes portrayed as a failure, as if he’s got this long habit of choking that he needs to overcome.

Joyner: I know what you’re saying. I remember when he dropped the field goal snap in Seattle in ‘06 and people were telling me his career was over, and I remember saying, “no, that’s a good NFL quarterback.”

He’s not the guy who’s going to be the benefit of the doubt. When Peyton Manning started in Indy, he was the cornerstone. They had a ton invested him and he had a reputation for being the hardest working guy on the team, so even though he had trouble in his early playoffs he was given a lot of slack.

The press sees Romo with starlets and they see Joe Namath. He’s not given a lot of slack.

Roger Staubach was an excellent quarterback but he lost Super Bowl 10 to the Steelers, he lost to them in ‘77 when Dallas won the title, he lost Super Bowl 13 the following year and lost Super Bowl 13 and a half in ‘79. He was 0-4 against Terry Bradshaw and the Steelers but you never hear, “oh, Roger could never beat the Steelers.”

BSR: Adam Schefter of the NFL Network reported that Dallas was supposedly interested in Joe Horn. Does he have anything left?

Joyner: Joe Horn did not have enough attempts to qualify for my ratings but his numbers were between five and six, which are not good.

I have to wonder why they feel they need another complementary receiver. I have a new rating this year, where I look at how a receiver did against three different classes of corners. I classify any CB with a YPA below 7 yards as a red corner, a CB with a YPA between 7 and 9 as a yellow corner and any corner with a YPA above 9 as a green corners. Reds are matchups you tend to avoid, yellows you attack with caution and greens are great matchups for a quarterback.

Last year, Patrick Crayton had a 5.4 YPA against red corners, which is not very good. But his YPA against yellow CBs and against green CBs was above nine. Now a YPA around ten will usually rate a receiver at the top of the league.

This means that when he was not matched up against elite corners, Patrick Crayton was a very effective receiver.

Look, Terrell Owens will probably have 150 passes thrown his way. Jason Witten will get another 100 to 120. Crayton will probably get 90 to 100 balls. The running backs and backup tight ends will get maybe 60 or so. That’s just over 400 attempts. How much will Dallas need another receiver?

Here’s another reason why I wonder if Dallas needs another receiver. I used the red/yellow/green system to rate the matchups each QB will face in ‘08, giving a zero every time a QB faces a red CB, one point for a yellow CB and two for a green one.

Tony Romo has the lowest matchup total for any QB entering 2008, meaning he faces the hardest schedule passing wise. When the Cowboys coaches look at their opponents I think they’ll rely on their running game more this season. Now, every other NFC East QB will also have a tough road, but Romo has the most difficult schedule, period.

BSR: How do you rate Dallas’ chances, given Romo’s matchup problems? 2007 came to a disappointing end but I never wavered from my belief that the ‘07 Cowboys were not going all the way. Their defense was not finished. I think they’re close enough to being complete this time. They didn’t match up against New England and could not match the Giants in producing a rush with four men.

Joyner: I think the Cowboys have an excellent chance. They have arguably the most talented team in the NFC, with San Diego being arguably the most talented team in the AFC.

BSR: Careful, K.C., you’re stealing my thunder. Dallas and San Diego meet in their first pre-season games and I see them squaring off again in the Super Bowl. Thanks again for joining us.

– K.C. Joyner will be featured in a BSR podcast later this week to answer more questions, promote “Scientific Football 2008,” his new cornerback tracking service and “Blindsided,” a new book which aims to puncture several football myths.  If you have a question for K.C., post it in the thread.

Games

Dallas May Be America’s Team…

but the Patriots are Hungary’s Team, dammit!

Check out this site.

It seems the Hungarians also love themselves some Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cowboys, based on visitors, are mid-pack.

Coming Attactions, Rock-Hard Performance Boosters and a Final Camp Pitch

– The NFL year is heading farther into the dead zone, with the coaches due to take their vacations before the camp grind begins. The team did release its camp schedule so we have a target. Workouts begin on July 25th, just four weeks from today.

We’re not slowing down here at BSR. I’m interviewing K.C. Joyner tonight and will publish his comments over the weekend. We’ll be talking about Adam Jones, the Cowboys secondary in general, T.O., possible second wideouts, Tony Romo and a host of other topics.

K.C. will also discuss Scientific Football 2008, which is about to be released, and a new cornerback tracking feature that his web site will feature this year. Check in for that.

We’re also going to talk about Cowboys fandom with the folks at Barry Switzer Ate My Hamster Too, better known as The Hamster, a U.K.-based Cowboys fanzine that’s been around since the mid ’90s. The lads will tell us what it’s like to root for the good team from almost half way around the globe. I wonder if they have any Page 3 girls for their fanzine? Hmmmm, I wonder if we can get some Page 3 girls for BSR!? (Page 3 Girls are a “feature” of The Sun, the biggest daily “red top” in England. Warning — may not be work safe.)

– They’re not just corking their bats any more — A few years ago, when Viagra was first introduced, an NBA official joked that “the league should test for a lot of drugs but if it really wants to scare the players, it should announce its testing for Viagra.”

Seems there might be something to that line. Sports officials now think the little blue pill might enhance on-field performance. The major sports leagues might just have to test for it after all — or put medicine jars full of them in every trainers room!

Viva Viagra indeed.

Finally — we’re in the home stretch of our fund drive. We’re at $1,835 now and are closing in on $2,000, which is the amount which would make it comfortable for me to cover all two initial weeks of camp. I’m closing the drive on Monday, so pitch in if you can and help us reach our goal.

A big thanks to the generous people who have already donated. We won’t let you down.