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Preparing for the Cowboys’ Draft, Part Four: the Parcells Profiles

Bill Parcells has overseen drafts for three teams in the past 12 years, choosing players for New England from 1993 to 1996 and the New York Jets from 1997 to 2000. He is heading into his third draft with the Cowboys.

This initial breakdown will examine his track record as a selector. While Parcells has shown some frustrating tendencies in his brief time with Dallas, like taking heavy risks with second day picks and emphasizing kick returners and special team players with late selections, his drafting ability holds up. There are two qualities of Parcells’ drafts that should hearten Cowboys fans.

1. Parcells is amazingly accurate with first day picks. Want to see how a winner is put together? Take a look at Parcells’ four drafts with New England. In ‘93, he inherited a team coming off a 2-14 season and had the first pick in the draft. While it may seem like a no -brainer today, there was a split among experts over the top two quarterbacks, Washington State’s Drew Bledsoe and Notre Dame’s Rick Mirer. There were heavy rumors that year that the San Francisco 49ers might trade up to acquire Mirer, whom no less an authority than Bill Walsh compared to a young Joe Montana. Parcells ignored offers for his pick, chose Bledsoe and never looked back. His three other first day picks made the team with two, LB Chris Slade and OG Todd Rucci becoming starters.

Parcells second draft was his dud, as only one of his four first day picks stuck. That pick, however, was DE Willie McGinest. Parcells scuttled Jerry Jones’ grand plans for his first draft, as Jones had worked out a pre-draft trade with the Rams to swap Alvin Harper for the fifth pick, which Dallas would use on McGinest. Parcells took McGinest at pick four.

The next two drafts would form the backbone of Parcells’ 1996 Super Bowl squad. He had four first day picks in ‘95 and hit on all of them, selecting Ty Law, Ted Johnson, Curtis Martin and Jimmy Hitchcock. Law, Johnson and Martin became instant starters. Hitchcock was the Pats’ nickel corner.

Parcells ran the first day table again the following year, landing Terry Glenn, Lawyer Milloy and Tedy Bruschi in the first three rounds.

In all, his picks in rounds 1 through 3 from ‘93 to ‘96 were remarkable. Parcells had fifteen such picks in those four years. Twelve of them made the team. Ten of them– Bledsoe, Slade, Rucci, McGinest, Law, Johnson, Martin, Glenn, Milloy and Bruschi — were quality starters. The other two, Hitchcock and Vincent Brisby, were key role players. Even more amazing is that all of those ten except for Slade and Rucci are still productive NFL players.

Parcells did not have the same quantity of picks in New York, but still hit on a solid percentage of them. In ‘97 he made good on two of his three picks, selecting LB James Farrior and WR Dedric Ward. As with New England, Parcells’ second draft was his worst, as none of his three first day picks distinguished themselves. In ‘98, Parcells had only two picks on day one but landed two starting guards in Randy Thomas and David Loverne. Thomas is a Pro Bowl-caliber guard and was a target for Dallas in free agency two years ago until it was outbid by Washington.

Parcells saved his best effort for last. Through shrewd trading and with compensation from the Patriots for Bill Belichick, New York had five first day picks, four of them in the first round. As he had in New England, Parcells aced his final draft, getting John Abraham, Shawn Ellis, Chad Pennington, Anthony Becht and Laveranues Coles.

Again, there was a definite contour to Parcells’ drafting: he was good in year one, poor in year two and perfect in years three and four. A similar pattern has emerged from years one and two in Dallas. Parcells was solid in year one, getting three starters with his three picks — Terrence Newman, Al Johnson and Jason Witten. Year two was a letdown, with the brilliance of Julius Jones offset by the season-ending knee injury of Stephen Peterman and the disappointing progress of Jacob Rogers. We can all hope the Tuna repeats the third year success he enjoyed with the Patriots and Jets.

2. Parcells first day picks are overwhelmingly from major college programs: If you’re fixated on a sleeper prospect from Anonymous U. on day one, don’t count on him. The more important the pick, the more conservative Parcells tends to be. Only two of his early Jets picks were from non-BCS eligible schools. At New England, only three of his fifteen picks were from smaller programs. And keep this in mind — in years three and four at both New England and New York, all of Parcells’ picks were from major schools in major conferences.

Looking for an initial way of weeding down your draft list for rounds one and two? Start by eliminating the Troys and Hamptons and Alabama-Birminghams from your list. Parcells has drafted nothing but major program players in his short tenure with the Cowboys. Coming off a 6-10 season, I’ll bet he’s less likely than ever to take a gamble on players who haven’t proven themselves in major conference play.

Coming next: Is there a Parcells’ “type”?

More Cowboys Crumbs

Loose change found under the Valley Ranch sofa cushions:

Injury update I: New Cowboys RG Marco Rivera claims he is recovering from his disc surgery and is already running on a treadmill.

Injury update II: Mickey Spagnola of dallascowboys.com reports that rehabbing TE Dan Campbell has been running sprints lately. (scroll down) This should lessen the urgency to find a blocking tight end, but don’t discount the Cowboys drafting one in the middle rounds. Parcells can never have enough of them. If you saw the Patriots last year, who shuffled four tight ends in and out of their lineup, you’ll have an idea of where the Cowboys would like to go.

Walter Signs: Restricted free agenct OL Tyson Walter signed his one year $656,000 offer from the team.

To Terry or Not to Terry?

“The Cowboys might keep an eye on recently-released Chris Terry, who started all eight games he played in last year with the Seahawks. The six-year veteran who has 80 career starts has been injury-prone, missing half the season in 2004 and 11 total games in the past two years.

But at 6-5, 295 and experience at right tackle, signing Terry could serve as a nice insurance policy if either Tucker, Vollers, or even Rogers doesn’t cut it on the right side.”
–Cowboys Still Looking to Upgrade at Right Tackle
dallascowboys.com, March 26, 2005

“…If he can stay out of trouble and play with intensity consistently, Terry is capable of developing into a Pro Bowl caliber player.”
– Scouts Inc. 2004 report on Chris Terry

“Terry was suspended for four games in 2003 because of a repeat violation of the NFL’s substance-abuse policy. He was also fined an additional five game checks that year for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.”
–Len Pasquarelli, ESPN.com, March 19, 2005

“Athletic and steady with good footwork.”
– Pro Football Weekly 2004 Preview review of Terry

“Terry, who came to the Seahawks after being released by the Carolina Panthers in the wake of a misdemeanor charge of assaulting his wife and a subsequent missed court date, started 23 of the 25 games he played for Seattle.”
–Seahawks Release Chris Terry, Scouts.com, March 19, 2005

Preparing for the Cowboys Draft, Part Three: Know Your Team’s Profile

In the days before the 1989 draft, the Dallas Morning News printed a brief article laying out the templates Jimmy Johnson used for drafting defensive players. At first glance, the schemata looked superficial. But mated with a draft book, the templates made the process of weeding out pretenders from serious prospects a quick one.

Johnson profiled the players he wanted thusly:

DTs: had to be at least 290 lbs., preferably more. Their job was to be run stuffers. Tenacity was a must, but speed was not a concern.

DEs: Johnson wanted speed. Consequently, his ends had to run 4.7-4.8 or better. He had success at the University of Miami converting big linebackers to ends, so heavy linebackers who were tall, and had the potential to carry 265 to 275 lbs. were welcome. The poster boy for this project was Tony Tolbert, who played OLB at Texas El-Paso, but bulked up and had a stellar career as the strongside end.

LBs: Johnson wanted these guys to run 4.65 or better. Height was not a priority. Tenacity and durability were. And did I mention they had to be fast? The Cowboys scheme would protect these guys, so their ability to recognize and pursue was foremost.

DBs. Again, speed. Jimmy said he wanted four corners in his secondary, so that all of them could cover. So nobody who ran over 4.55 made the cut, for corners or safeties. The one time he went against type was when he drafted Darren Woodson in ‘92. Woodson had been a linebacker at Arizona State, but he was the fastest linebacker at the ‘92 combine (ran a 4.47 40), and his slight size — for a linebacker — made him a candidate to play safety. (Most conversions go the other way, with big safeties converted to linebackers.) It also didn’t hurt that Woodson could cover anybody, receivers included.

You might be thinking, so what? So you’ve got speed scales for linemen, linebackers and DBs. What can that tell you?

Plenty. Once you start looking at draft books, which usually feature times from the Indianapolis combine, you will find that there are very few linebackers who can run a 4.65. In the 1991 Pro Football Weekly draft guide, for example, 81 linebackers were profiled. Only thirteen of them made the time cut. Dallas drafted two of those — Dixon Edwards and Godfrey Myles.

Depending on the position, the time profiles allowed you to eliminate 80 to 85% of the names in your draft book and zero in on those players most likely to fit the Cowboys scheme. While Jimmy Johnson was doing the drafting, chances were almost 100% that the players he selected would conform to his published profiles.

Another aid was then-PFW editor Joel Buchsbaum’s positional rankings. At the beginning of all his books, he would break each position down into five categories: overpublicized players, underpublicized ones, underachievers, overachievers and sleepers.

In the stellar ‘91 draft, many of the Cowboys’ draft picks fit into the overachiever category (Russell Maryland, Bill Musgrave) or the sleeper category (Erik Williams, Godfrey Myles). This was not by accident. When Sports Illustrated followed Johnson in the week leading up to the ‘91 draft, they found his organization engaged in a process he called “grinding.” Cowboys coaches and scouts would call former coaches and acquaintances of players Dallas was considering. These people were “ground” on character issues: was the player lazy? Did he take plays off? Would he play with an injury? Did he have personal problems the team should be aware of? The Cowboys found that these references were always initially reluctant to criticize their friend or former player, but would tell you the whole truth if you worked them hard enough.

As you might guess, the attention to finding overachievers diminished when Johnson left. One characteristic you will find in early Jerry Jones drafts is a tendency to go after players defined as “boom or bust.” As older fans know, most of these picks went bust.

Finding profiles is not as easy under Bill Parcells. For the 2003 and 2004 drafts, you could get a sense of what Dallas was looking for — on the defensive side of the ball. (His offensive schema are a little different from what the Cowboys drafted before, but there are more similarities than differences on that side of the ball.) The Cowboys were still playing the same scheme Johnson brought to the team in ‘89, so the players sought to fill defensive positions was the same.

However, standards are changing, now that Parcells is moving to a more 4-3/3-4 hybrid scheme. What’s more, Parcells is no friend of the press. You won’t find neat player profiles sitting in the Morning News sports pages, as you did in 1989.

So what’s a draftnik to do? Rely on history, that’s what. When we return for Part Four of this series, we’ll look at the type of players Parcells drafted at his New England and New York stops for insight into his 2005 Cowboys plans.

Preparing for the Cowboys Draft, Part Two: Fun With Numbers

Draft picks are fungible, and one of the fun games in preparing for the draft is working out trade scenarios. Since Jerry Jones is a noted mover and shaker, working out scenarios is almost a must for Cowboys fans.

Fortunately, the Cowboys have made it easy for GMs and fans to calculate the value of a trade. Back in ‘89 when Jimmy and Jerry were the NFL’s young punks, they had a chart created which assigned a numerical value to every pick in the draft. For a brief time, it was their sole property. But as coaches like Dave Wannstedt and Norv Turner left for other jobs, the chart became known league wide. It has become almost standardized in its use. You can see one here.

With this chart, you can play armchair GM and plot the Cowboys reconquest of the NFL. Here’s a hypothetical to give you an example of how it works. Let’s say it is draft day and the Cowboys’ pick at 11 is fast approaching. The Green Bay Packers, who have the 24th pick, call you. They need secondary help and want to get Antrell Rolle, who is still on the board.

That’s a steep drop for Dallas, but you consider it because the Packers have two 2nd round picks. You know they can afford to wheel and deal. You look at your draft chart and see that the 11th pick is valued at 1250 points. The Packers pick at 24 has a value of 740 points. In order to make it work, the Packers have to come up with extra picks worth 510 points, the difference in value between the Cowboys’ pick and theirs.

Your chart shows that their first 2nd round pick, the 51st, is worth 390 points. Their 3rd round pick, the 89th, is worth 145. That’s 535 points worth of picks. You tell the Packers you’ll drop to 24th if they’ll give you the higher of their 2nd round picks and their third.

Green Bay comes back and says you would owe them 25 points if this deal went through. That’s the value of a high sixth round pick. You’re willing to give them your sixth, but you don’t have one. (Dallas has two sixth round supplemental picks, but supplemental selections cannot be traded, by league rule.) You offer your seventh, which is worth 10 points. You also offer your sixth round pick in 2006, which will probably be worth 16 to 22 points. Green Bay says okay, but they want it upgraded to a 5th rounder. When future picks are factored into deals, NFL teams upgrade them one round; in other words, a sixth rounder today is worth a fifth rounder next year. That’s how Dallas got Buffalo’s #1 in the Julius Jones trade.

To summarize, your charts calculate the following deal:

Green Bay gets: Dallas’ 11th pick, Dallas’ 7th round pick, and Dallas’ 5th rounder in 2006.
Dallas gets: Green Bay’s 24th pick, Green Bay’s 2nd rounder (51st) and Green Bay’s 3rd rounder (89th).

Again, this is hypothetical. I have heard nothing about such a trade. But if this were to come Dallas’ way on April 23rd, and the decision was yours, would you take this deal? It would give Dallas two first rounders, two second rounders, and recoup the third rounder Dallas lost in the Drew Henson trade. On the other hand, you lose your pick in the top 12. What do you do?

The clock is ticking.

Preparing for the Cowboys Draft, Part One

“Nobody knows anything…”

— Screenwriter William Goldman on Hollywood

Keep Goldman’s words in mind as we head into the last month before the draft. Now is the time when the so-called experts — many self-proclaimed experts– crank up the rhetoric. It’s also the time that the trade scenarios get bolder. Here are the first points to remember as the mock drafts begin to fly like passes at closing time:

1. Teams lie. You’re going to hear a lot from teams now about players they like. Don’t believe any of it. Use your better judgement to determine what a team needs. What positions have they not yet filled through free agency? This, more than anything will tell you who your team is likely to draft. Heard rumors that Dallas is interested in somebody? Unless it dates back to the combine or Senior Bowl week, it’s likely disinformation.

Here’s an example. For the past few years, the Cowboys have held a banquet the week before the draft where they bring in guys off their “short list.” Some of these guys have been drafted by the Cowboys. Most have not. In 1998 the Cowboys had Penn DE Mitch Marrow in with two dozen other “prospects.” The night before the draft, a Detroit paper reported that Dallas had a scout stationed outside of Marrow’s agent’s home, with a contract in his suitcase. It appeared that Marrow was a Dallas target, and many mock drafts that year had Marrow, a Mike Mamula-clone, creeping as high as the second round. It was all a smoke-screen; Dallas took Greg Ellis with the 8th overall pick and Marrow went to Carolina in the third round.

While this is lying, you hope your team is really good at it; teams are in competition for the same guy, and if your intentions are known, you can get burned. A team that also wants the same player can jump over you and scuttle your plans.

Lets go back to 1997. Dallas ‘96 playoff run had been cut short in great part because TE Jay Novacek’s back had given out early in the season. It was fairly well known that Dallas was interested in a tight end, though they had plenty of other needs. Valley Ranch was initially coy with its plans, but a few weeks before the draft, Sports Illustrated featured a photo of Troy Aikman throwing passes to prospect Tony Gonzalez at a “secret” workout. Now, how secret is this workout if the biggest sports magazine in the country has it? And how responsible was Valley Ranch in providing the photo? The Cowboys were seemingly more interested in publicity than in drafting effectively.

The photo’s damage was severe. The Kansas City Chiefs, who also coveted Gonzalez and who were already picking ahead of Dallas, moved up even farther to select him. Their explanation for the move? They wanted to make sure the Cowboys didn’t trade ahead of them and take Gonzalez.

But wait, as those old Ginsu knife ads said, there’s more. The Eagles, who were picking three spots ahead of Dallas, suckered Jerry Jones. There was only one other first round TE talent that year — LSU’s David LaFleur. The Eagles called Dallas and offered to swap places. They informed Dallas that another team was talking to them about moving up to get LaFleur. In reality no such team existed, but Dallas was desperate.

It shipped a first day pick to the Eagles to make the deal. Eagles officials crowed to the press that they had taken their rivals for a ride. A Dallas official, in a moment of unvarnished candor, told Mickey Spagnola, then of The Insider, ” you have no idea how much more we were willing to give up to get him.” Gonzalez has been the most productive tight end of the past eight years. LaFleur, who was rated below Gonzalez because of trick back, had his career cut short by new back woes. The Cowboys thereafter went from being the most draft-press- friendly organization to being one of the most deceptive ones. It started its propoganda banquet the very next year.

Loose lips really do sink ships.

2. Somebody always slips Take a good look at your top 10 to 15. Somebody on that list is going to take a long ride down on draft day. Sometimes it’s for drugs. In ‘95, Warren Sapp was a top five rated pick, but slid to Tampa Bay at pick 12 after word leaked that he had tested positive for marijuana. Other times it’s for behavioral issues. Many draft mediots were putting Randy Moss in the Cowboys’ draft stocking back in ‘98, but they and 20 other teams passed on him, much to Minnesota’s delight.

Other times, however, there is no rational reason for the drop. In 1990 Pro Football Weekly’s Joel Buchsbaum rated Emmitt Smith the fourth best player overall, and his mock draft had Tampa Bay selecting him with the fourth pick. On draft day, Emmitt’s 4.55 40 yard dash time dropped him to 17, where Jimmy Johnson greedily scooped him up.

In ‘98, Flozell Adams was consistently rated between the 12th and 15th picks in most mock drafts. When he fell out of the first round on draft day, Dallas happily selected him with the 38th pick.

For all its success in grabbing big droppers, Dallas has also let them slide through its fingers. In 1996, PFW had Texas DE Tony Brackens rated the 12th best player overall. On draft day however, he slipped, and slipped, and slipped, clear out of the first round. The Cowboys, who desperately needed an end to replace the broken Charles Haley, looked the gift horse in the mouth at pick 30, traded down seven spots with Washington and settled for the immortal Kavika Pittman.

This year, Dallas is well positioned to benefit from more slips, having the 20th pick and the 42nd. If it keeps its composure and doesn’t get cute, other teams’ mistakes could help Dallas back to prominence.

Because it happens every year. Though your friends and the “experts” will tell you that they are certain Braylon Edwards and Derrick Johnson will be long gone by pick 11, or that Mark Clayton is too small to be worth the 20th pick, you’ll be certain of the one sure thing about Draft 2005.

Nobody knows anything.

Mock Draft Friday

The War Room’s latest mock draft has Dallas taking WR Troy Williamson at 11 and DE Marcus Spears at 20. The cbs.sportsline gurus all have Dallas taking DE/OLB Shawne Merriman at 11 but differ wildly on pick 20. CNNSi’s Don Banks gives Dallas Merriman at 11 and Williamson at 20. ESPN’s Scout’s Inc. folks second that duo (subscription only). Mel Kiper gifts Merriman to the ‘Pokes but says they will take WR Roddy White with their second choice.

Who, of these mediots, has the best feel for the draft? Who have you found to make the best draft book? Discuss.

Howard’s End?

The Oakland Raiders have apparently entered the Darren Howard sweepstakes, offering New Orleans either CB Charles Woodson or CB Philip Buchanon for him.

This seems unrealistic for both teams. Oakland is clearly looking for a salary dump, especially if they can get out from under Woodson’s $10 million cap hit. New Orleans, on the other hand is also looking to get out from under Howard’s deal so it can re-sign its own players. What the Saints want is draft picks. And the Raiders are short, already having shipped the 7th overall pick to Minnesota for Randy Moss. It doesn’t seem likely that Oakland would send its number two to the Saints.

The Howard scenario is being set in concrete, at least from Dallas’ perspective. It will happen after the draft, it appears, or it won’t happen at all. (You know this is more likely because New Orleans’ latest posture is saying they will trade Howard before the draft or they will keep him, which, as we have discussed in earlier posts, is a dumb long-term move for the team.)

With a Howard deal seeming more remote, to whom do you look for a rush, and with which pick? Shawne Merriman? Derrick Johnson? Dan Cody? Erasmus James? Demarcus Ware? David Pollack? Matt Roth? Someone else? (Show your work, it will be graded.)

Update: Saints higher-ups seem awfully eager to discuss a possible Howard deal with the Dallas press. Yesterday, GM Mickey Loomis told the Star-Telegram that Jerry was giving him the cold shoulder. Today, coach Jim Haslett tells the Star-Telegram that Dallas and the Saints have never had a serious discussion about compensation for Howard. He also repeated Loomis’ threat that Howard would not be traded after the draft.

Two teams are playing poker. Jerry Jones is not saying a word. The other team is lobbying hard to the Cowboys fan base.

Who’s got the better hand here?

Cowboys Crumbs

Some tidbits of information from a slow March week:

Horsecollared: The Ft. Worth Star-Telegram is reporting that the Cowboys will vote for a rules change banning the “horsecollar” - type tackle, whenever it is written. NFL Competition Committee members have struggled to find the appropriate way to define an illegal horsecollar.

The Cold Shoulder: Saints GM Mickey Loomis is quoted in the same story as saying he’s getting “the cold shoulder” from Jerry Jones in his attempt to work out a deal for DE Darren Howard. The sticking point is compensation: the Saints want more than the Cowboys are willing to give. This is following the scenario I predicted; unless a team like Minnesota enters the picture, the Saints will be trying a lot harder to move Howard before the draft than the Cowboys will be to acquire him.

Give it Back: new Cowboys guard Marco Rivera offered to return his entire signing bonus to Jerry Jones upon injuring his back last week, according to NFL.com. Jones declined the offer.

Cowboys Gain Two Picks: the NFL awarded Dallas two compensatory sixth-round picks in next month’s draft. The picks, numbers 208 and 209 overall, are for losing DE Ebenezer Ekuban and CB Mario Edwards in the 2004 free agency swap. They bring the total number of Cowboys picks to eight. Dallas did not have a sixth round pick, having traded its own to Oakland for DE Kenyon Coleman. The Cowboys now have picks in every round except the third; that pick was swapped to Houston for QB Drew Henson.

Coming soon: a series on how to read draft books.

Patience the Main Ingredient in a Howard Deal

With the NFL owners meeting in sunny Hawaii this week it’s ironic that player business has slowed to a glacial pace. Less than three weeks after they began, free agent moves have come to a near standstill.

That stasis has to be frustrating Cowboys faithful, who were hopeful that a deal for Saints DE Darren Howard could have been worked out by now. New Orleans was facing a deadline of March 17th to move the disgruntled end, but Howard deferred it by signing the Saints’ tender offer. The Saints now have time to strike a harder bargain with a team like Dallas, but here are two reasons why I believe the trade will happen, but not until the end of April at the earliest:

Howard is eating up $7.8 million worth of cap space. The Saints have four core players who are in the last years of their deals — RB Deuce McAllister, C LeCharles Bentley, WR Joe Horn and CB Mike McKenzie, who cost a second round pick to obtain. The Saints want to sign them to long-term extensions to keep them off the market, but don’t have the cap room to do so. They will have it if they move Howard.

If the Saints keep Howard they face a similar dilemma with him next year. They either franchise him again, which would give him an outrageous cap figure of $9.3 million, or they risk losing him to free agency for no compensation.

So what long-term options do the Saints really have? They move Howard now and gain stability, or keep him around and risk blowing up their team in 2006.

From Dallas’ perspective, the desire to get Howard is great, but the need to get him now is not. Jerry Jones has said he does not want to trade draft picks for players and at this point he’s right. I see no risk that Howard will be traded to another club before the draft. The other teams that keep being linked to Howard trade are Washington, Minnesota, Seattle, Miami and Denver. Let’s look at the likelihood of each team trading for him:

Miami — the Dolphins entered free agency with less than $2 million in cap space. They’ve already made several smaller money additions, most notably safety Tebucky Jones. They’ve already got a big ticket DE in Jason Taylor. How can they afford another one?

Denver — They also entered free agency with limited cap room. They’ve been trying unsuccessfully to unload high- priced DE Trevor Pryce, who has the biggest contract on their defense. They appear trapped, capwise. They’ve pursuing DE Courtney Brown, a much cheaper option who was released by the Cleveland Browns last week

Seattle — The team most often named as a competitor signed DE Bryce Fisher from the Rams last week. He got a four year, $10 million deal. They paid Grant Wistrom a mint to play DE for them the year before. I don’t think the Seahawks paid Fisher all that money to be Howard’s backup.

Washington — The Redskins had a fair amount of cap room, but lost much of it when they made the Santana Moss-for-Laveranues Coles trade. They’re in strong pursuit of Courtney Brown, who seems more in line with their budget. They also can’t give New Orleans their second round pick, since the Saints already own it.

Minnesota — They had over $30 million in cap room and have spent freely, trading Randy Moss and signing Pat Williams, Darren Sharper and Fred Smoot for their defense. They are still the club most likely to be that “other team” but they’ve been quiet since signing Sharper and WR Travis Taylor last week.

New Orleans might be trying to drive up the price of getting Howard, but why give them anythingbetween now and the end of the draft? Dallas has no visible competition and New Orleans’ need to move Howard only increases as the season approaches. Sure, a new team might emerge after the draft, but teams won’t exactly have more cap room then, will they?

I expect Dallas to turn off the phones, keep the 42nd pick, use it on the best available player and then call New Orleans after the first mini camp. Who knows? Dallas might draft an end who looks so impressive to the coaches, it makes them disregard the Howard deal altogether. Stranger things have happened.

In any event, put those Darren Howard thoughts on the back burner of your mind. Unless Jerry convinces Saints GM Mickey Loomis to cave on his trade demands over some mai tais this week, it just ain’t gonna happen in the near future.

Update: Minnesota, that “other team” mentioned upthread, may be just that. The Orlando Sentinel passes on the rumor that the Vikings might consider sending the 18th overall pick to New Orleans for Howard. The Vikings have the cap room to make this happen. Time will tell, but it should not compromise the Cowboys thinking in any way. The Cowboys would have to send the 20th pick and a lower pick or package a starting player and a pick for Howard to trump the Vikings, if this rumor has merit. Both prices are too high, in my humble opinion.

Remember the Legend

Emmitt Smith signed a one year contract with Dallas today, allowing him to retire as a Cowboy. Smith is in the process of submitting his paperwork to the NFL and will be listed on the Cowboys reserve/retired list after it is processed.

Take this thread to list your favorite Emmitt Smith game or run.

I’ll list two, though I could add dozens more:

1. In 1990, a 3-7 Cowboys team beat the Rams on the road to start a four game winning streak that got them — briefly– into the playoff race. Their offense had been terrible to that point under David Shula, whom Jimmy would can after the season and replace with Norv Turner. But in that game, the Triplets cut loose for the first time. Michael caught a long touchdown pass from Troy.

And Emmitt scored on a goal line play where I am sure he leapt into the pile, moved sideways in mid-air and made a stunned Rams linebacker miss.

2. In the 1996 NFC Championship Game against Green Bay, Emmitt broke free on a run to the right. He was hit low by a Packers defensive back and flipped upside down. He put his free hand out, pushed off and somersaulted back onto his feet, running for about five more yards. It was only a ten or fifteen yard run, but it showed how nobody was going to bring him down easily that day. It was so amazing that Fox didn’t notice it; the producers assumed he had been tackled by the first hit and didn’t run a replay. If John Madden had seen it, I’m sure he never would have stopped talking about it.

Draft Open Thread

Fox Sports is causing a bit of a stir today with its updated mock draft, showing Dallas taking Mark Clayton at pick 11 and Shawne Merriman at pick 20.

What two players are in your draft crystal ball? And will Dallas keep the 42nd pick? If so, who will it take with it?

Another Trade Target?

There is speculation on the Jacksonville Jaguars site that Dallas may be interested in franchised safety Donovan Darius.

This seems little more than a wild hypothesis. While the Cowboys clearly want a safety to complete their secondary, Darius is a strong safety; the Cowboys are looking for a free safety so that Roy Williams can be moved to his natural strong safety position. Darius would also cost Dallas a high draft pick or a player. With Dallas still negotiating for Darren Howard, it seem unlikely that it would try to trade for two players.

Lastly, Darius would want a long-term contract for a sizable amount of money. The Cowboys have cap room available, but it seems unlikely they could afford to pursue both an end and safety and have much left over for the draft.

The Roy Williams Rule?

The NFL Competition Committee is debating whether to outlaw the “horsecollar” style of tackling that Roy Williams used when he broke Eagles WR Terrell Owens’ leg. According to a committee member, Williams injured four players with that style of tackle last year.

Update: The NFL Competition Committee is determined to make a change, but is still uncertain as how to proceed. What is certain is that some version of this rule will be implemented; no less an authority than Jerry Jones says so.

Certainty or Money: The Darren Howard Decision

The latest droplets of information that have condensed on the Valley Ranch windows suggest that we may have to wait a while for the Darren Howard situation to resolve itself. When Howard signed the Saints franchise player tender offer, he removed the 3 pm Wednesday deadline as the hard target for a deal.

What’s more, the Cowboys are facing dual standoffs. On the organizational front, the Saints and Cowboys are playing a game of chicken: Dallas is willing to deal its 2nd round pick this year for Howard, but New Orleans is now holding out for more. The possibility of another team entering the bidding would complicate matters for Dallas, but I have found no proof that the Cowboys are bidding against anybody but themselves. While the New Orleans press mentioned Seattle, Minnesota, Miami and Washington as possible competitors, the local press in those cities has not supported the claim.

The Seattle papers quote Seahawks brass as saying they want “value” for picks and are not willing to “overpay.” That’s one strike against a Howard move to the Northwest. And consider this: Howard is apparently asking for a contract that approximates the six year, $33 million deal with a $14 million signing bonus that Grant Wistrom signed last year. Seattle gave him that contract. Do you think they are ready to write up a duplicate for Howard?

Update: The Seahawks signed former Rams DE Bryce Fisher to a four-year deal on Tuesday, seemingly taking them out of the Howard sweepstakes.

Minnesota brass was quoted over the weekend as saying they were turning their attention to offense after signing FS Darren Sharper. They made good on their claim today, signing former Ravens wideout Travis Taylor. The Redskins have been in hot pursuit of former Browns DE Courtney Brown since his release. And the Dolphins, who do not have bundles of cap room, just signed safety Tebucky Jones after the Saints released him Tuesday.

On the player front, the Cowboys now appear a bit relucant to give Howard that Wistrom-like deal, if Mickey Spagnola is correct.

A third matter is how desperate the Cowboys are for Howard’s production? Fans and press alike are daydreaming of a Howard-Ferguson-Glover-Ellis line. Here’s some data to whet the fantasy. In 2000 and 2001, Howard’s rookie and second seasons, he played on a Saints line with NT Norman Hand, Glover and DE Joe Johnson. In many respects the talent of this line resembles what Dallas has now, with the possible exception that Johnson was a better rusher than Ellis.

Look at the sacks they racked up:

2000: Howard - 11, Hand-3, Glover-17, Johnson-12

2001: Howard-6, Hand-3.5, Glover-8, Johnson-9

That’s 43 sacks in 2000, an average of 10.8 per man. Though the total dropped to 27 in 2001, the line still averaged almost 7 sacks per player. Dallas has had trouble getting that type of production from its team sack leader since Charles Haley and Tony Tolbert were in their primes a decade ago.

This is the danger the Cowboys face. They have lacked a rush line for so long that the temptation to pay any price is high. So again, at what point would New Orleans or Howard prompt you to call the whole thing off? Does such a point exist?

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