Interview Update
June 26, 2005
K.C. Joyner and I have scheduled an interview for Wednesday. Keep the questions coming.
Update on the update: I played e-mail and phone tag with K.C. today but finally got a hold of him. I’ve forwarded around a dozen questions and will send another set soon. I hope to get his response from the first set, which covers his general methods of evaluating players, Drew Bledsoe, Anthony Henry and Terrence Newman, on Thursday.
Pro Writing From Amateurs
June 23, 2005
I sense some restlessness on the site, and I feel it too. Four football annuals have been published so far and it’s clear that their quality is slipshod. You’re hungry, and what you really want is better material to work with.
Paul Zimmerman of Sports Illustrated offers some better material in this week’s mailbag, where he touts Scientific Football 2005, a 467-page tome by one K.C. Joyner of Altamonte Springs, Florida. I have a lot of respect for Zimmerman, the longtime S.I. writer and author of the now out-of-print The Thinking Man’s Guide to Pro Football. While I disagree with a lot of his points, Zimmerman is the most thorough analyst around. That’s because he’s the only analyst at any of the major publications who watches tape. He watches lots of it. And he’s found a kindred spirit in Joyner, who claims to have taped and broken down every game of the ‘04 season for his inaugural book.
Joyner’s goal is to offer the football nut a comprehensive look at the pro passing game. Scientific Football rates the quarterback, receivers, tight ends, backs, linebackers and defensive backs on their effectiveness at completing or preventing forward passes. What inspires Zimmerman is Joyner’s fearlessness at deflating the reputations of the media darlings. Established stars like Champ Bailey get dressed down. So do Madison Avenue wannabes like the young Eli Manning and the established Michael Vick,who is, if I read Joyner correctly, one of the most error-prone QBs in the NFL.
Joyner seeks the truth on the field, which is not obvious to the TV-aided eye, since the screen only shows play roughly five yards past the line of scrimmage. HDTV will improve on this greatly in the next few years but for the time being, we’re often left to the hyperbole of the announcers. And it is their lazy ramblings that Joyner threatens to demolish.
I can appreciate Joyner’s effort. When I wrote for TheBoys.com a decade ago, I used old tapes of Cowboys games from 1991 through 1995 as the basis for my scouting reports. All my game reports hit the web only after I’d watched the tape twice. It’s painstaking work, but it provides a much richer perspective on the game.
I’m also excited to see an outsider take on the established football press. As the preseason annuals have shown, this is an area that is ready to be blown up and reconstructed. While we’ve seen a proliferation of alleged former scouts in the draft book market, the preseason and in-season publications do not look much different than they did 20 or 30 years ago. Pro football is at the place where baseball writing was about fifteen years ago, when sabermatricians got frustrated with the lousy quality of baseball writing and took it upon themselves to do a better job.
I was a regular on the usenet forum rec.sport.baseball back in the early ’90s and watched a group of “regular guys” create a set of home-cooked metrics to better understand what was happening on the field. One was a meteorologist. Another a medical student. Another was fresh from law school. Another was a business consultant. They combined their writings with those of other wise and original thinkers, took a deep collective breath and, like Joyner, created their own book.
The first issue of what they called The Baseball Prospectus was photocopied and mailed to buyers. The next year, they found a publisher. Today, BP is one of the more respected baseball publications on the market. Established analysts like Peter Gammons, who made fun of the “statheads” in their early years, now quote their material as gospel. Many of its original writers still work on the book. Some now write for ESPN. One, Dave Pease, is now in the front office of the Toronto Blue Jays.
These guys helped change the way baseball is watched and appreciated. Joyner now seeks to remake the football landscape. His book is pricey, at $49.95, but I’m going to buy a copy. Anybody who can provide a more honest appraisal of the game deserves all the help he can get.
Update: I e-mailed K.C. Joyner asking for an interview and he has graciously accepted. I’m not sure when we’ll get to hear from him; he’s quite busy since the Sports Illustrated piece, but says he’s always eager to talk to hardcore fans. If you have any questions for K.C., post them in the thread. His ratings promise to be more detailed — and more surprising — than those we’ve reviewed here the last few weeks.
The Silly Season — Guard Ratings
June 20, 2005
A position that has been considered one of the weakest in the league in recent years (notice there are no blue-chip players on this list; when Larry Allen was in his prime in the late ’90s, he would score in the mid-4.0s and nobody else would be close to him) shows some encouraging signs for Dallas.
Named to back-to-back Pro Bowls with the Packers before bolting to Big D, where the Cowboys hope he can duplicate a recent streak of more than 60 games without allowing a sack. Terrific leader and locker-room guy. Quick and has seen it all, which should be a benefit to younger, less experienced linemates. Sets up in a blink, anchors and plays with proper pad level. Has the hand speed to joust with top pass-rushing defensive tackles. Some fear he might fall apart — he played through ligament tears and is coming off back surgery in March.
Who are these people who fear he will fall apart? The janitors at Pro Football Weekly? The bitter Packers fans on staff just itching to say “I told you so” to Jerry — and us — for luring Rivera away? Don’t get me wrong, the back surgery made me feel queasy when I first heard about it, because those things can wreck a career. Having seen recent photos of Rivera rehabbing, and seeing the stretching and torquing he’s doing on his back to strenghen it, I’m far less worried now. But really, if the guy can play through ligament tears and make the Pro Bowl, falling apart is the last thing I worry about. It seems Rivera can play well while falling apart.
One-dimensional Mack truck of an interior lineman in the twilight of his career. Allen has had a Hall of Fame-worthy run, even if he doesn’t dominate and appears drained late in games. Can come off the ball and blow up an interior lineman on occasion. Has rare power and a strong, wide base with broad shoulders. Not agile and is a two-step blocker who much recover and must get his hands up and out to neutralize a blocker.
This scouting report is dead on about Allen the past two seasons, especially in ‘03. He improved last season, but his recovery ability on pass plays left something to be desired. The glowing reports of improved mobility from Parcells better be on the mark or the staff is fooling themselves about moving him to right tackle. If he can play at a 3.2 level as a right tackle, he’s top ten at that position as well.
The question marks are present, because of Allen’s and Rivera’s age and Rivera’s surgery. If they maintain their level of play, Dallas has two Pro Bowlers. Julius Jones and Drew Bledsoe can only hope.
The Silly Season — TE Ratings
June 18, 2005
The PFW folks have some justification for their RB ratings — rookies don’t get overrated, in case they’re flashes in the pan — but the magazine’s TE rankings leave them open for serious questions from Cowboys fans. The position is not as deep as RB, with only 15 players getting a grade. It’s how the magazine grades that will make you see red:
The review of Witten is soft and evasive, saying nothing eloquently,
Fine athlete with better-than-average speed and soft, natural hands. Can throw poorly thrown balls by adjusting and can separate from the defense in confined areas and break open. Appears a bit stiff and won’t shake more limber defenders. Height helps as a blocker, where he gives good effort, but technique can be improved. Somewhat new to the position. Has good weight room strength, not functional football strength. Holds the ball on contact and shows good concentration.
It’s clear that this ratings system is skewed towards guys with speed. Gonzales, Heap, McMichael and Kleinsasser are much better known as receivers than blockers. There are not many in the top eight who are good combinations of blocking and receiving. Alge Crumpler would top my list there, and deserves his high rating, IMO. (It’s too bad Michael Vick doesn’t trust him the way that Troy Aikman did Jay Novacek. With the Falcons’ mediocre receiving corps, Crumpler should have even better stats than he’s posted.)
That said, this list is wildly inconsistent. Shockey is given the third rating based on a “high ceiling,” even though he was booed by Giants fans last year for dropping the ball and looking disinterested in the game. Franks is a good TE, but has shown nothing special in his time as a pro. And he’s a glaring disappointment if you consider that about ten years ago, when Franks was a sophomore at Miami, Sports Illustrated singled him out as one of the players who would revolutionize the game in the next decade. I wouldn’t even consider Franks the second best U. of Miami TE over that span; Shockey and Kelley Winslow Jr. can fight over the top two spots.
Witten, on the other hand, is downgraded because he does not look natural yet. These guys are not rookies. There is a better way to guage their value than their draft-day scouting reports. It’s called production, and on that subject, I’ll defer to Seahawks’ DC Ray Rhodes. Ray-Ray is no Cowboys lover, having faced then for years as the Eagles HC and DC and as the 49ers DC. When Seattle and Dallas met last year, Rhodes declared Witten the best tight end in the NFC. I don’t know if I’d take him over Crumpler, given the choice, but he’s no worse than fourth on this list, behind Gonzalez, Crumpler and Gates. Witten is two- dimensional, and he’s only 22 years old. The rest of these guys are older, and lack balance in their games.
Have at it.
The New Fantastic Four
June 16, 2005
Since the 2000 season, 19 clubs who had losing records the previous year have made the playoffs. That’s a remarkable average of almost four teams per season. In fact, there have been four teams making this jump every year except 2001, when three teams did it. Here is the list:
2000
Giants, 12-4; 7-9 in ‘99
Eagles, 11-5; 5-11 in ‘99
Saints, 10-6; 3-13 in ‘99
Broncos, 11-5; 6-10 in ‘99
2001
Patriots, 11-5; 5-11 in ‘00
Bears, 13-3; 5-11 in ‘00
49ers, 12-4; 6-10 in ‘00
2002
Titans, 11-5; 7-9 in ‘01
Colts, 10-6; 6-10 in ‘01
Giants, 10-6; 7-9 in ‘01
Falcons, 9-6-1; 7-9 in ‘01
2003
Ravens, 10-6; 7-9 in ‘02
Cowboys, 10-6; 5-11 in ‘02
Panthers, 11-5; 7-9 in ‘02
Seahawks, 10-6; 7-9 in ‘02
2004
Jets, 10-6; 6-10 in ‘03
Steelers, 15-1; 6-10 in ‘03
Chargers, 12-4; 4-12 in ‘03
Falcons, 11-5; 5-11 in ‘03
This trend suggests that four more teams will cycle upwards this year. The list also shows why we’ve been beating up on the preseason annuals, who have all penciled in most of last year’s playoff field, with only one or two revisions. This topic started downthread on an earlier post, but I’m going to modify is slightly.
Who will the Fantastic Four, 2005 edition be? My guesses are the Cowboys, Panthers, Cardinals and Raiders. The Giants are my dark horse pick, as I can see all four swing teams coming from the NFC, which is in far more flux than the AFC. (And yes, I know this contradicts my earlier prediction of the Cowboys going 9-7 and missing the playoffs, but after looking at the NFC a bit more closely, I’m feeling more optimistic.)
The Silly Season — RB Ratings
June 15, 2005
Want one big reason why PFW rates the Cowboys to only move from 6-10 to 7-9 this season? Check out their ratings of running backs. The magazine grades players on a five point scale, with grades in the 4.0 to 5.0 range being “blue chip” players, who, in their words are “Pro Bowl quality players who consistently make big plays.” Grades in the 3.0 to 3.99 range are for red chip players, defined as, “impact players who produce like starters but fall short in at least one area.” Here is PFW’s top 20:
Jones’ scouting report lacks any major deficiency. In the magazine’s words,
Limited much of last season by injury before he found the field and looked like the top rookie runner in the NFL. Changes direction with ease and has vastly superior instincts to his brother, Thomas. Has outstanding field vision and make-you-miss ability. Powerful legs to break tackles, good burst and balance. Doesn’t have ideal size but stood up to a pounding down the stretch last season with 22 or more carries in each of the final seven games.
And those were productive carries too; Jones averaged 27 of them for 115 yards per game, a 4.3 yard average per carry.
This rating seems way too low for a guy who showed so much raw ability. But to be fair, Jones only played in eight games. What’s more, PFW shows restraint in rating rookies. Ben Roethlisberger, despite his stellar season, was only rated 17th among quarterbacks, behind David Carr and ahead of Kerry Collins.
Based on skill, and taking into account that Dallas will use Jones a bit less per game this season, where would you rate him entering the season? I’d place him ninth, behind McAllister, but ahead of Martin, who I think will slip back to earth after his monster ‘04 at the age of 31. If he stays healthy and his o-line stays intact (read: Marco Rivera’s back holds together), Jones is top-five material. He’s seen the league now. He knows the speed of the game and has proven his hands are good. (This was the primary concern about his game last year.) His coach has complemented his improved knowledge of the game, so the Julius Jones of ‘05 should look that much more polished than last year’s model.
California Dreamin’
June 13, 2005
Some random notes on a slow June Monday:
The Silly Season - PFW Edition
June 12, 2005
The survey of preseason annuals continues with Pro Football Weekly’s Preview. This has been my favorite over time because it is the most analytical and talent-based magazine. Joel Buchsbaum, who wrote PFW’s respected draft books, began a system of rating pro talent; every annual would list the top 50 players regardless of position and then rate the top 25 by position.
Buchsbaum died recently, but the PFW staff has continued his ranking system with the duties spread out among several reviewers. The magazine also has week-by-week statistics for every player by position from 2004, which provides the raw data to let you conduct your own analyses. Since the whole point of blogging football is stepping outside the spoon-fed world of sports media, this magazine is, in my opinion, the most user-friendly for the self-thinking fan. PFW is based in Chicago, and like the Street and Smith annual rated last week, uses local staff to compile team reports, with off-the-record input from league scouts.
The Cowboys get mixed reviews here as well. Dallas is forecast as the second place team in the NFC East, though the team’s many offseason moves only earn it a 7-9 prediction from this group of mediots. The primary reason for the small step forwards is the magazine’s incredible underrating of the Cowboys’ young skill position stars, particularly Jason Witten and Julius Jones, a topic I’ll address later this week.
The analysts are even more conservative than S&S in their forecasts, picking 10 of the 12 playoff teams from 2004 to repeat. In the AFC, all four ‘04 division winners repeat, with the Jets returning as a wild card team. The only change forecast has Jacksonville replacing Denver as the final wild-card entry. In the NFC, Philly, Atlanta and Seattle repeat as division champs. Minnesota moves to the top of the North, while the Rams repeat as a wild card entry. The only change here has Carolina replacing Green Bay on the playoff card. PFW joins a growing chorus in picking the Eagles to defeat the Colts in Super Bowl 40.
Here are some interesting items from the annual:
The upgrade in talent this offseason does not mesh with the magazine’s prediction that Dallas’ record will only improve one game. The Cowboys are much stronger on offense, according to their metrics, yet Dallas is seemingly held in place by Bledsoe. I’m ambivalent about him myself, but I don’t see how he could be a regression from Vinnie Testaverde and he’s certainly an upgrade over Quincy Carter and his happy-meal game plans from 2003. The editors wisely shy away from trying to predict rookie performances, yet it’s hard to imagine that someone won’t emerge from this group to further help the cause.
Morgan’s Mystery Shoulder Injury a Concern
June 10, 2005
Quincy Morgan injured a shoulder last week in a passing drill.
That much is certain. The question that lingers is how badly? Conflicting reports have emerged in the past two days. Morning News writer Jean-Jacques Taylor makes the injury sound severe, claiming that the injury will require surgery at the end of the season, but that Morgan is determined to play through it.
Clarence Hill of the Star-Telegram offers a more optimistic assessment today, quoting an a member of Morgan’s agency who termed the injury a “strain.” Morgan is rehabilitating the shoulder and claims he will be fine for the start of the season.
With the beginning of camp still almost two months away, the injury is either the type that can be rehabilitated by August or so bad that Morgan wouldn’t have the time to recover from surgery before camp. I’m skeptical that an injury that serious could be managed week-to-week for seventeen weeks and not compromise Morgan’s play. I’m not a medical doctor, but I know a couple who can provide the proverbial second opinion. I’ll add my two cents after I consult them.
Be(at) the Mediot
June 8, 2005
While we wait for the next wave of mediot football annuals, let’s see how you can do. I’d like to see your predictions on the Cowboys’ season. What will their record be? Will they start quickly? Slowly? Will any rookies emerge? Playoffs this year, a near miss, or status quo?
My early gut prediction is 9-7. I think the talent level has improved, and the signings of Henry and Glenn will help the pass defense. I’m not convinced, however, that the switch to 3-4 will go smoothly. My biggest concerns are at the DE positions. Greg Ellis is a true hard-hat player, but if he can’t handle being a two-gap end, teams will run at him without mercy. And Dallas does not exactly have anybody behind him should he fail. Chris Canty is promising, but you can’t depend on a guy who can’t lift yet. I also think it’s overly optimistic to expect Marcus Spears to be a terror right out of the box. I think he’ll be a good player, but even good players have learning curves.
I think Dallas will struggle early, even though the first half of the schedule looks easier. I also think the running game will keep the team competitive and will propel the team to a strong finish once the defense gels. Will 9-7 be enough for the playoffs? Last year it would have been, but the NFC can’t be any worse now than it was in ‘04. I see a narrow playoff miss, but a return of the hope fans had after the ‘90 season, when it was clear success was just around the corner.
No Foolin’ — Allen’s Likely the Lifeboat at RT
June 6, 2005
Bill Parcells’ challenge to the Dallas press that they should not speculate on his secret option at right tackle didn’t stop anybody from doing so. Nor did it stop them from being right; The Dallas Morning News quotes unnamed team sources that left guard Larry Allen spent time during last week’s minicamp working at right tackle.
The adjustment means that Allen’s career — should he play right tackle — has come full circle. Allen became a starter in 1994 filling in for RT Erik Williams, who severely damaged a knee in a mid-season car accident. Allen made his reputation by playing gamely that January on a badly sprained ankle in the Championship Game loss to the 49ers. Allen moved to right guard the next season and began a long run of Pro Bowl appearances. He has played both guard and both tackle positions in his eleven year career.
Allen’s move is made more possible by the development of second-year guard Stephen Peterman. Peterman is fully recovered from the serious knee injury he suffered on a extra point play in last season’s pre-season finale. Peterman worked extensively with the starters last week and impressed the coaching staff.
If none of the Kurt Vollers, Torrin Tucker, Ben Noll, Rob Pettiti group emerges, Dallas could field this offensive line in San Diego opening day:
Peterman’s addition to the starting lineup would add some lustre to the ‘04 draft, which has only Julius Jones to promote so far.
The Silly Season — DMN Edition
June 4, 2005
The Morning News’ Rick Gosselin adds his two cents to the preseason ranking business, rating Dallas 20th in his initial pre-season listing. Gosselin puts Dallas in select company, just one spot behind the Denver Broncos, whom the Street and Smith folks have winning their division. The biggest surprise on Gosselin’s list is Oakland, who leapfrogs from 28th on his last’04 list to the 14th spot now. Given Oakland’s lackluster draft, Gosselin is giving incredible value to Randy Moss and Lamont Jordan.
There is one common refrain to the two lists critiqued so far; Gosselin, like the Street and Smith analysts, is disturbed by the Cowboys’ age, especially on offense.
The New Silly Season Begins
June 4, 2005
June has arrived, which means publishers are racing to get their pre-season annuals on the newstand first. I spotted two in my local bookstore yesterday and purchased Street and Smith’s yearbook. The Cowboys get a mixed review from the S&S folks, who like the team’s draft, but are generally unimpressed with the Cowboys’ direction.
Every annual has a unique format, and Street and Smith’s relies on interviews with league scouts and personnel managers to shape their assessments. Street and Smith’s is based in Charlotte, North Carolina, and uses a team of nine writers to assemble the team profiles. All are from the midwest or northeast; among the more familiar names are Don Pierson of the Chicago Tribune and Larry Weisman of USA Today. Street and Smith’s also assigns a numerical value to each team, based, I assume, on its overall talent level.
Some of the major points in the annual include:
Late Shopping season opens
June 1, 2005
With the turning of the calendar to the month of June, a new shopping day has arrived in the NFL.
The Blue Light Special is alive and well – players of note will be released but be wary of a bargain because there is a reason these guys are on the market.
Teams can begin casting off players they no longer want – typically veterans – and defer the cap impact until next year.
Here’s how it works:
If a player signed a 5-year deal in 2003 with a $10 million signing bonus, that bonus is split up for salary cap purposes so that it counts $2 million per year, even though the player received all $10 million up front.
Now, say after two years that player has not been the impact player the team thought he would be. They want to release him but if they do so in the spring the remaining bonus (years 3-5) is accelerated and the remaining $6 million counts against the 2005 cap.
Enter June 1.
By releasing the player on or after June 1, the team is only on the hook for the $2 million portion that they had to allocate anyway. But in 2006, the remaining portion - $4 million – is accelerated into the cap at that point and must be eaten.
Scanning the league, players such as safety Lance Shulters and receiver Rod Gardner may be June 1 cuts. What players should the Cowboys look at?
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