The Silly Season - PFW Edition
Posted: June 12, 2005 @ 11:23 am
The survey of preseason annuals continues with Pro Football Weekly’s Preview. This has been my favorite over time because it is the most analytical and talent-based magazine. Joel Buchsbaum, who wrote PFW’s respected draft books, began a system of rating pro talent; every annual would list the top 50 players regardless of position and then rate the top 25 by position.
Buchsbaum died recently, but the PFW staff has continued his ranking system with the duties spread out among several reviewers. The magazine also has week-by-week statistics for every player by position from 2004, which provides the raw data to let you conduct your own analyses. Since the whole point of blogging football is stepping outside the spoon-fed world of sports media, this magazine is, in my opinion, the most user-friendly for the self-thinking fan. PFW is based in Chicago, and like the Street and Smith annual rated last week, uses local staff to compile team reports, with off-the-record input from league scouts.
The Cowboys get mixed reviews here as well. Dallas is forecast as the second place team in the NFC East, though the team’s many offseason moves only earn it a 7-9 prediction from this group of mediots. The primary reason for the small step forwards is the magazine’s incredible underrating of the Cowboys’ young skill position stars, particularly Jason Witten and Julius Jones, a topic I’ll address later this week.
The analysts are even more conservative than S&S in their forecasts, picking 10 of the 12 playoff teams from 2004 to repeat. In the AFC, all four ‘04 division winners repeat, with the Jets returning as a wild card team. The only change forecast has Jacksonville replacing Denver as the final wild-card entry. In the NFC, Philly, Atlanta and Seattle repeat as division champs. Minnesota moves to the top of the North, while the Rams repeat as a wild card entry. The only change here has Carolina replacing Green Bay on the playoff card. PFW joins a growing chorus in picking the Eagles to defeat the Colts in Super Bowl 40.
Here are some interesting items from the annual:
The upgrade in talent this offseason does not mesh with the magazine’s prediction that Dallas’ record will only improve one game. The Cowboys are much stronger on offense, according to their metrics, yet Dallas is seemingly held in place by Bledsoe. I’m ambivalent about him myself, but I don’t see how he could be a regression from Vinnie Testaverde and he’s certainly an upgrade over Quincy Carter and his happy-meal game plans from 2003. The editors wisely shy away from trying to predict rookie performances, yet it’s hard to imagine that someone won’t emerge from this group to further help the cause.
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Good article. I was thinking about your “conflict” conclusion as I was reading it. How can they rate so many players highly yet predict 7-9? Maybe they couldn’t bring themselve to say 9-7 or maybe it’s a typo.
The stat about Bledsoe vs 10+ win teams is interesting, sounds like they had to dig deep for it. Still, Dallas faces just three such teams this season, one twice. With Drew winning 15% of those match ups, we could split the four games. Not too bad, if my math is right.
Will Parchman has a good article on Bledsoe’s stats that paints a better picture of Drew’s potential. It’s over on http://cowboys.mostvaluablenetwork.com/
My math is not bad (I hope), but my conclusions are hastily drawn surrounding it. I do not mean to say that based on Drew winning 15%, or 1 in 6.8, of certain match ups, indicates that he should win 50% of four such games this season. He should not win any of the four or maybe one at best. But looking at those matches, I think we could split them in some combination as the 10+ win teams we face are SD, Philly and Denver. Of course, we could win them all too. Stoopid math…
Ive said it before, ill say it again, No one will predict dallas to do anything until they do something. Then all these morons will say they figured big d would step up any time. sameold sameold. This is proven by the fact that they show dallas as having improved dramatically when they break down the players one by one, but for some reason dont think it will help them win any games to be a better team. I bet they said we’d do better before last season, even though we had less talent, cause to predict that we would suck in 04 after going 10 and 6 in 03 would be making a prediction that required a little thought. I cant wait to see these idiots all eat crow!
I’m going to be putting up Lindy’s review of the Cowboys off-season later on tonight… reading these preview mags are always interesting, but I always seem to have some gripes with the way they do things.
The mediots take too much consideration into what a team’s record was last year. We’re we really a top 10 team going into last season? No. By Week 10, they will be saying they saw this from the Cowboys and their team is balanced and have a great young defense and one of the most talented RB’s and TE in the league.
Lou,
You nailed it. What I’m beginning to see writing these reviews is that the mediots can think back approximately nine months. They don’t look at trends. They don’t take the learning curves of young players into account. They don’t see that because football is the most team sport, a team can amass a great deal of talent before it shows change on the field, and as a result, change in the NFL proceeds in quantum leaps, not in gradual slides up or down.
Because they’re short sighted fools, they miss that the *given* is that some team or teams with losing records will make anywhere from a six to eight jump in wins.
Where did the Rams come from when they went to the Super Bowl?
Where did the Panthers come from when they went to the Super Bowl?
Where did the Cowboys come from when they bounced up to 10-6 in ‘03?
Where did the Falcons, Chargers, Jets and Steelers come from last year?
Oh yeah, from losersville.
The question is simple: which 5-11, 6-10 or 7-9 team(s) is/are going to be this year’s story?
Because it only happens every year. That NONE of these magazines can acknowledge this tells me that the bongs get passed early and often at these joints, cause there is no collective short-term memory to be found at any of them.
Well lets pose the question then. Who do u guys feel will make that “quantum leap” this year? My money on improving teams are our Boys of course along with the Lions and Cardinals. I see Green Bay sliding quite a bit. Any thoughts out there? Lets see if we can collectively come up with better predictions than these mediots for the this upcoming season. GO BOYS!
good question chris. here’s my two cents:
UP:
cowboys - easy choice with our 6 - 10 record last year. reasons are what we’ve all been saying - because of the majority of our off season moves on defense and a rookie class that will have at least 2 gamers appear by game #9. because Bill Parcells wills it. because our offense, though not lighting up the boards, will run the ball into opponent’s throat. Also, even if bledsoe is only average, he’s got to be better than vinnie - time for another interception — testaverde. I say we’re a 9-7 team in ‘05
arizona - the other 6-10 team I think has improved. And I think Denny Green knows how to get a team into the playoffs. And they play the 49ers twice (two free victories). However, that’s where they stop. Probably also a 9-7 team in ‘05
DOWN::
I’ve some dark horses here. The Vikings. I just don’t think their offense is all that without Moss (a rookie in Moss’s shoes? forget it.) And they’re without O. Smith for the season. I’m not as impressed about the defensive pick ups in the off season - Smoot, Pat Williams, Darren Sharper and Napoleon Harris and Sam Cowart. They’re fine but they’re not dominant. I think Culpepper has a harder time finding Robinson, the TE and other WRs without Moss around.
Pats - they lost too much coaching and are just bound to have a poor season. Sure, they make the playoffs, but that’s all. We’ll see a weakness in the armor somewhere. And some players will do some bonehead thing to break the squeaky clean image of the Pats. Seymour is already starting that for us. I hope Dillon continues it.
Greenbay - Farve is getting old and they lost too much ont he O-line and I don’t think highly of their defense.
Good analysis Carioca. I see things pretty much the same way. I’m probably a little more impressed with the Vikings than you are. As for the Patriots, having won the superbowl 3 of the last 4 years, anything short of that would be a down season, so I’ll agree with you on that one. I really don’t think they’ll take it this year.
Okay, I’ll admit it. I don’t want them to take it this year because they would do something even the Cowboys didn’t do. I’d rather see ALMOST anybody win it this year rather than the Patriots, who I rooted for last year because they were against the Eagles.
Car and Rob,
I argue regularly with a few Vikings fans. I think TICE sucks as a coach and should have been fired. They tried to BUY a Defense. Which history has proven rarely works. Moss and Smith are gone. Two best players at key positions. Culpepper is solid, but they seem to be getting a lot more attention. They did spend the most in FA, but how many TDs went to Randy Moss……….who is going to do that?
Dallas schedule is not that bad. Worst of it is our own NFC East Rivals…….in my opinion. Defense in a 3-4 will take some time to gel. However, the 4-3……..if all you did was put Ferguson and Spears out there next to Glover and Ellis………with Henry, Glenn, Newman, now avaialble at Corner……….we dramatically improve.
I think we could be better come playoff time than at any other time during the regular season. NFL has proven, home field advantage is nice but it doesn’t mean a thing. Ask San Diego…….or Pittsburgh.
Now talk about a team that cannot improve that would be Pittsburgh. I think Ben will miss burress…….and they lost a few players to FA. I think they could be a 10-6 team……..or maybe a little better…….but after a 15 win year………that will be a major disappointment.
Cincinnatti and Arizona are two teams I see as improved. Detriot also. I am not sure Mariucci is a Super Bowl coach, but he is building an impressive talent in Detriot. I think they will all three be teams on the edge. 9-7 but any of em could get 10 or 11 win seasons.
Should be an intersting year. Across the board, I see it wide open. Eagles and Pats will remain strong. Indy will still be in it. Jets probably too……..although they lost a bit and have yet to sign Abraham……..I hope they can clip the Pats. They play the Pats pretty well. They just cannot seem to win those games.
Jon,
Every now and then, you say something I can’t argue with, even if I wanted to. Your take on the 4-3 is just such an example. I’d argue with you on this, but you’re dead on. I’d love to see that lineup because I’m not 100% sold on the 3-4. In theory, it sounds great, but we were proven just a couple of years ago running the 4-3. I still don’t think the 3-4 is going to be an every down scheme, but I’m starting to believe it will eventually become the primary scheme, if we show we can play in it effectively.
As I said to Caricoa I like the choice of Arizona. Picking up Antrelle Rolle was a great move for them. I’d love to have seen him here too, but it was not to be. I forgot about Detroit. On paper, they have got one hell of an offense going into this season. If they can’t make some serious noise now, somebody needs to be fired.
For me, the jury is still out on Cincy. Pollack and Thruman should do okay, but I don’t know what else they’ve done. I haven’t really followed them that closely.
Even with the player losses, I think NE will be too strong for the Jets. We’ll see.
I also liked Caricoa’s pick of Green Bay on the downside. Losing Rivera hurt them, no matter what spin they put on it. Didn’t they lose another lineman as well. Farve can’t run like he used to, and without that protection, he’s going to dance with a few more defenders this year.
Yeah all the hype around the 3-4 is overrated. Mini Camp and Training Camp expect to see it all the time. Preseason too. I think come day one of regular season though you are going to see Dallas still using a lot of 4-3. Guessing a 50-50 transistion this year. Would be surprised if Bill ever shelved the 4-3 all together. Zimmer and the team need to learn it, that is why it will focused on so much. Ironically despite calls to the contrary……….Glover has pro bowl experience in both……..Canty played both in college……..and Spears, Burnett, all saw some 3-4 in college. He did a good job of adding players that can do either. I like the flexibiliity it is going to offer Bill, and Zimmer.
Zimmer used to be our Defensive Backs coach, and he has never in his tenure had a more talented list of CBs, SS, to field in coverage. FS will get figured out, and Reese is nice insurance. That coverage improves, and we are going to be a better football team. We were the kings of giving up 3rd and long………..which just deflates a defense.
Well I think Marvin Lewis is a great Defensive coach. I think Carson Palmer is due for a breakout season. He is a legit NFL QB, and showed a lot last year. They are still the bengals, but Lewis is slowly getting his players in his system. They may be one of those teams on the bubble. Easily 8-8 or possibly 10 or 11 wins.
Antrelle Rolle is a player. He will have to adjust to the NFL game, but he is a playmaker at CB with a nice physical game. I thought he was the most dominant player on Defense in college last year, period. Dennis Green produced some of the most potent offenses in the history of the NFL, and it looks like he is trying to do it again in Arizona. Warner is the wild card, if he returns to form and is protected he could be an MVP. If he struggles, they don’t have much else at QB to go on.
Jets lost more than they gained. But Pennington was hurt some last year. If he was healthy, Martin stays healthy they can compete. The will miss our NT Ferguson………but i like Herm Edwards intensity and that team still has above average talent. I think NEs own division is getting more and more interesting. Saban down in MIAMI knows Bill Bel and his style well. He will be a formidable opponent……….but not yet. He is in the 1-15 rebuild year we all remember well down in Dallas.
This is way off the subject, but did anyone see Saturday’s article in the Star Telegram about Drew Rosenhaus?
That guy is a broken record. All he ever says if that if a team can break a contract, why can’t a player hold out for more money. The one thing you never hear out of his mouth is any talk about the huge sums of money that these players receive as a signing bonus that the team can never get back when they sign these contracts.
Terrell Owens received something in the neighborhood of $10MM last year including his signing bonus and now he expects to renegotiate. I’m sorry but whose fault is it that he agreed to that contract? T.O. fault. For once I am rooting for the Eagles. I really hope they put the screws to him and don’t give into his demands. It’ll be a moral victory for the league and it’ll also help level the playing field between the Cowboys and the Eagles not having T.O. on the field.
Rosenhaus is just giving these guys bad advice. He wants to hold out Sean Taylor and what happens? The guy could be looking at jail time. Finally he returns Gibbs call…no doubt with his hat in his hand. Now he nor Rosenhaus have any leverage with that situation.
Rueben Droughns has one good year running the ball in Denver and he’s advising him to sit out as well. Give me a break. The Browns will move on without him and Rueben D. will be back on the street broke again before he’s back on an NFL team.
Mike McKenzie is talking another holdout with the Saints. Another joke.
I’m sorry but some of these players are idiots. One day they are going to have to realize they are replaceable and that their agents are much greedier than they are themselves.
Sorry to vent.
Look guys give the Pats a little more credit than that, as for the NFC the Eagles will be our only major obstacle. I mean how cool would that be to have Parcells dethroan Bellicheck.
No Playoffs and I will be super dissapointed! One more thing I know Julius only played half the season, but boy oh boy will he dominate this year, I am absoloutly counting down the days.
i think dallas will slowly go to the 3-4. i just don’t see them jumping to the 3-4 all of a sudden. i see them playing a lot of it in the preseason. and that will determine how much we play it in the regular season. bp won’t start losing games just to play in the 3-4. i see us winning 10 games anyway.
even though i agree that detroit will be coming up; besides dallas being the biggest jump. i haven’t heard too many people talk good about the cleveland brown. as bad as they where last year. if they could go 7-9. that will be a huge improvement. besides dallas; my vote on the biggest improving teams will be the arizona cardinals and the cleveland browns. that is not to include “dallas”.
the biggest drop offs would have to be pats. (that is if seymour and/or bruschi does not play). after that i would go with the steelers. it is hard to win back to back 15 games seasons. the jets are going down and the packers are going down fast.
the other lineman that the packers lost was wahle.
Gene
I did not read the article in question and while I agree with your position on the weight of signing bonuses compelling players to live up to their contracts, the league has always enjoyed the power to break the contracts at will. Unchecked. So, I understand Rosenhaus’ contention here as well, if one party must abide, why not the other? I won’t pretend to grasp all the inner workings at play but I’d guess the answer is not so simple as the question. The salary-cap hit a team takes mitigates their control to some degree but the leverage remains with ownership to cut someone with no regard for the contract if they are so willing.
I wonder if his holdouts are more frequent because of the CBA negotiations? Is he an NFLPA pawn? Or is he just a brazen egotist, concerned only for an emboldened reputation and fattened wallet? Or is he truly championing his clients’ interestsâ€â€indeed that of all NFL players, during a perceived time of influence? Striking while the iron is hot? It’s curious. I’m not a big fan of the power brokering undertaken by lawyers (or politicians or unions or insurance companies or banks or any big industry for that matter) in this country or any other, but I don’t fault NFL players or any individual for taking measures respective to their situations to maximize their own earning potential. If I needed an agent, I would want the best representation possible but I would not surrender my will for “hisâ€Â. I would maintain control, reminding him that he works for me. So I hope.
NFL players probably look at baseball players and wonder what’s up. How much does A-Rod make a year? Big Unit? Manny Ramirez? How long is the average baseball career to a football career? I’d say there is a huge disparity. The NFLPA pales in comparison to the baseball player’s union. And like it or not, it’s a part of the game, as much as touchdowns, cheerleaders or the price of game tickets.
Darrel,
I think you are dead wrong about the Pats and the Browns. The Browns have no QB, TE, OL, DL, LBs, and a weak secondary. They will be drafting first next year.
As for NE, sure they have good players, but there success is as a team the players are all selfless and buy into the team concept, and if you dont, you are gone. They will again win the AFC and likely the SB.
matt;
i didn’t say that the browns are going to the playoffs. i said they will be a better team than they where last year. as far as the pats. they have lost the offensive and defensive coaches. (two very smart guys) and “if” bruschi and seymour both are not on the field. they will not be the same team as they where last year. and if i am not mistaken. they also lost an offensive lineman. don’t get me wrong; they will be good. however, i don’t think they are going to the super bowl, but they are still the team to beat. they are the champions.
(on the rosenhaus topic)
I think we’re missing some definitive numbers in order to settle Rosenhaus’s and TO’s chatter. What is needed => TO’s average yearly income assuming the Eagles terminanted his contract on any given year of the contract. For instance, if the eagles cut him after the superbowl, he would have pocketed > $10m for 1 year. Not bad. If they cut him after the end of year 2, he’d make something like > $6m per year (signing bonuc plus two years’ salary). etc…
Then lets compare those numbers to what Marvin or Randy or Terry (holt) make in a similar analysis. Are any of them making over $5m per year? Where, exactly, is the injustice to TO? This way we know how truly unfounded the wining from Rosenhaus and TO is.
On dallascowboys.com, I asked Mickey Spag to provide us with this type of info. Am hoping we see it there eventually.
Rather unfair to compare baseball & football (162 games vs. 16), but if you must…
Baseball players avg $2.3 million, Football around $1.1. However, this is a bit misleading…
The median salary in baseball (a better barometer because it reduces the effect of superstar salaries) is actually less than $1 million…with the Rockies a lowly $230,000. In fact, only 10 teams (about a third) have their median above $1 million. Even if you look at superstar numbers, NFL players are awfully close (A-Rod & Peyton Manning both at ~ $10 mil/year). Hell, TO’s is around $7 mil.
Baseball teams have fewer players on the roster. If you use “production” numbers like Kirwan (NFL.com/Sportsline analyst & former GM) does, it’s not even close. (i.e., $$/game)
Baseball is not a competitive league. And the main reason is the lack of revenue sharing, salary cap, and guaranteed salaries. By the way, the NFL does guarantee a player’s salary for the year, but why would you ever consider paying for something you no longer need, can afford, or is not meeting expectations?
If you want football to be like baseball, I guess you could sympothize with Rosenhaus, but for me, I’ll take the current formula. As much as I’d like to have seen Dallas sweep most of the titles in the ’90s (and they would have sans Free Agency), a competitive league is far more appealing.
The football avg was from 2001, I would extrapolate it to $1.8 based on the increase in salary cap, but used only the verifiable number
Correction…A-Rod is at $25.2 million/yr ($155K/game) vs the franchise value for QBs at $15 mil in ‘04 ($930K/game)
hello fellow cowboyans. i want to say that all this mediot pickings don’t mean sh.., we know what changes we needed to make and what signings we needed to do,and we did them with a few exceptions. i think we are a couple of pick-ups away from people jinxing us making big and bold predictions about us.i like this under dog place they have us in. it’s all the more gratifying when we come out the gate smoking. we have a team full of players who want to play to win as a team, and not as individuals. each one teach one. bill will have our boy’s playing playoff football right out of the gate. mark my words.
Very nice posts guys. Good analysis Car looks like we agree on a couple… The Vikings have had me wondering too. Im wondering how well they gel this season. I believe their offense will suffer some growing pains with a rookie wide receiver and Burleson as the #1 receiver. However that DL that they have assembled, although young, is down right scary. Another team Ive been wondering about is the Chargers. Whose it gonna be down the road Brees or Rivers?
I agree with Matt. I see the Browns drafting first this year also. I mean its gonna be pretty ugly I think. Droughns will struggle much like Portis did in Washington (a product of the Shanahan system). Speakin of Denver they also took the whole Browns DL with them. LOL That coupled with the whole Winslow fiasco and a couple of rookies at key positions should get them Matt Leinart in the draft next year (anything is an upgrade over Trent Dilfer). Ive been thinking a lot and without further a do here are my predictions for playoff bound teams. U guys want some bold picks so here they are.
NFC
East
Philladelphia Eagles-despite what we’ve done in the offseason this is still the team to beat. Even with a #1 ranked defense a couple of years ago, they still managed to win our division. How badly they win the division hinges on TO.
North
Detroit Lions- I may have some disagreement here with most of the experts, but I am utterly enamored by their wide receivers. Some competition between Garcia and Harrington coupled by the acquisitions of Shaun Cody and R.W. McQuarters should have them pushing the Vikings for the division crown (that along with the all-you-can-eat buffet against the Bears and Packers)
South
Carolina Panthers- This division for me has always been a head scratcher. I always thought this division was prime for the New Orleans Saints to dominate…but expect another lackluster 8-8 season from the underachievers. The division crown will be dictated by the health of Michael Vick. If he’s healthy I see the Falcons gettin in. I give the Panthers the edge due to the momentum they picked up late last year however. Cant go wrong choosing a team with a great defense and resiliency.
West
Arizona Cardinals- Thats right the Arizona friggin Cardinals. Their mastery of the draft and the pickup of Warner with a chip on his shoulder should elevate this team into a new stratosphere…the playoffs. St Louis with Isaac Bruce’s health problems will struggle and Seattle continues its underachieving ways.
WILD CARD
Minnesota Vikings- the safe pick for the North division crown, a shoe in for the playoffs. (again I mean come on…the Bears and Packers?)
Dallas Cowboys- our boys take care of business against beatable teams. God Bless the Washington Redskins =)
Eagles and Panthers get first round byes. Minnesota beats Detroit in Detroit after splitting the series during the season. Dallas repeats their victory against the Cardinals in the post season. Despite a valliant effort the Boys fall to the Eagles. The Panthers breathe a sigh of relief as they avoid the Lions potent offense. They crush the Vikings handedly. Eagles beat Panthers for a Super Bowl birth.
AFC
East
New England Patriots- The Champs. Nough said. Just give Miami a couple more seasons….
North
Baltimore Ravens- definately the most competitive division. With the loss of Burress I feel The Steelers fall a bit. The Ravens add receivers at Bollers disposal and along with Todd Heap he delivers with a dominating defense behind him. Expect strong competition from the Bengals as well.
South
Indianapolis Colts- The Colts offense is something else. Peyton is the most consistent player in the NFL (also relatively healthy every year). If something happens to the gun slinger, look for the Jacksonville Jaguars to sneak in.
West
San Diego Chargers- another very competitive division. Top to bottom this should be a very close race. Its disappointing these teams have to play each other twice a piece (it’ll cost them some losses). I like what the Chargers did in the draft, they took care of some needs and improve slightly. The X-factor will be how Shanahan does with the Browns DL. I dont think they improved enough in the secondary. They’ll be in trouble with the pass happy offenses of Oakland and Kansas City. Chargers barely edge out the rest.
WILD CARD
New York Jets- the Jets rely on games against the Bills and Dolphins to sneak into the playoffs. Although immensely talented, teams of the AFC West ultimately knock each other out of contention.
Jacksonville Jaguars- although they havent improved their team much if at all, the Jags ride their defense and an improving Leftwich to the playoffs.
Patriots and Ravens earn first round byes. The Colts host the Jaguars in a win in the first round. The Chargers have a rematch against the Jets and are victorious. Patriots and Colts in a rematch of last years conference final. The Colts get the better of the Patriots this time around. The Ravens beat the Chargers riding on the heels of the leagues best defense. The Ravens and Colts match up in the conference finals. In a very tight low scoring game, Boller costs his team a Super Bowl birth with turnovers.
SUPERBOWL
Colts over the Eagles. McNabb proves he can lose the BIG games better than anyone (including Jim Kelly). Manning shines after a statistically worse season than last years.
Feel free to disagree. I made some bold predictions. I’d like to see some other predictions. GO BOYS!
Manning beating Brady…….you are starting to sound like all the rest of the media.
Well shake your Crystal ball up real hard………and make it Cowboys over the Patriots. Big Bill gets his revenge on Little Bill. At the post game press conference Lil Bill admits………..”he is my Daddy” Shirts are printed by all those who do not like the Pats……….simply “Hey Belichek…….whose your Daddy?” A big Star is in the background.
Julius Jones rushes for 220 yards and wins Super Bowl MVP. Demarcus Ware sacks Brady twice and picks off a pass, stiff arms Brady on his way to the end zone in the 2nd Quarter. It sets the tone, and the Pats are never really in it. Witten piles up over 100 yards recieving. Dallas 31 Pats 17
Jones in a class act, hands Ware the MVP trophy and thanks his offensive line and the defense. He also thanks Bill Parcells, Jerry Jones, Notre Dame, his mother, God, and goes on to become the new poster child for clean cut All American. Hey this is a Notre Dame kid after all. After the game Bledsoe is seen mooning Belichek………..Parcells is about to rebuke his qb and then pauses, turns around…….says what the hell and joins Bledsoe in mooning Belichek. Then NFL fines Parcells and Bledsoe. Bledsoe Retires, Parcells takes the GM job for the Cowboys. Bledsoe is not invited to do the Disney Commercial, due to his mooning of Belichek. Brady is shown congratulating Bledsoe, and asking Jerry Jones to “call him” he might be interested. Henson flips Brady off, and says no way Tom, I had you on the bench as a freshman at Michigan………I will lead these boys next year.
TO upset over the Eagles loss to the Cowboys in the NFC Championship game. Fires Rosenhaus and hires the Postons, and says he wants another new contract. McNabb is the first quarterback to use an IV and oxygen mask on the field, during the 2 minute drill, in the 2nd quarter. It does not work. Andy Reid is fired for wearing spandex at practice. Larry Brown is hired as the Eagles Head Coach and declares Allen Iverson the starting WR in place of TO. AI replaces TO as the outspoken team leader and press favorite.
Following the Super Bowl the offseason HOF ceremony sees Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin both inducted. Jimmy Johnson is asked to induct them.
Ok…….probably a little unrealistic but as long as we are using crystal balls. Why not.
Jon
I think he needs Pedro’s permission for the Daddy shirts!
Jon
(sorry)
thats what im talkin bout
I disagree with all the people who think Detroit will be good. I don’t care who you have at WR, they have no QB. Both Harrington and Garcia suck. Harrington is horrible, I watched him play and dont care what ppl say about his potential. Give me Bledsoe over Harrington anyday. Kevin Jones is a nice RB, I dont think he’s as good as Juluis but he should be real good RB in the upcoming years. I still think that the Vikings and Packers will beat up on them this year, and they still aren’t good on the road. They would suprise me if they had anymore than 8 wins.
Also, my improved teams are: Dallas, Arizona, and Carolina. Also, I think the Raiders, Jaguars, and Cincy will improve their records this year.
My disappointments are: Bills, Steelers (they cant repeat 15 wins), and KC. I didnt really like what KC did with their defense. I know all about their offense, but I still say they cant stop anyone. The Bills have a young basically rookie QB now, they’re D can’t carry them that long. THey are expected to really compete this year and I don’t think they will, esp with the Pats and Jets in their division. And I think the Ravens win the North and Steelers win about 10, Bettis is older and Ben had a great season last year, but its not guarenteed he will have another monster year.
Lou,
I would agree that Harrington may not be the real deal. Garcia is old, but a former pro bowler that can still scramble and be dangerous. Cleveland did not have Roy Williams, Mike Williams and Mr. Rogers at WR or Kevin Jones at RB. Kevin showed me a lot in the 2nd half of the season. I still like Julius, but they got a lot of weapons.
Defense…..was starting to improve but who knows. I ain’t predicting them as the Super Bowl champs, but they could surprise some people.
Imagine if the Steelers win a dozen games with a sophomore at QB and it is viewed as a disappointment. It is like the Albatross Dan Marino hung around his own neck going to Super Bowl in his first season………and then never going back……….and never winning. Hard to duplicate 15 wins. Their schedule will be tougher, and they got a lot of breaks. I respect Cowher, but they ain’t going to be untouchable.
Being from the Seattle area, I hear some of the quotes from Mike Holmgren and if you think he is the guru everyone touts him to be, Dallas could be in for a monster year.
Holmgren said a couple years ago that he has learned that the best way to add players is to add veteran FAs to your offense and draft your defense. It is harder for the offense to gel than it is for the defense. It takes 2-3 years for rookies to really catch on to the offensive system, whereas, on defense players can be productive within the first year. These are not his exact words, mind you, but they are the crux of it.
If this plays out right, Dallas has done the right thing this off season and will be kickin some booty this year. The age on offense is more of a plus than it is a minus and the critics are going to be eating some serious crow come this winter.
I am betting on 11-5 which is up from my past prediction of 10-6. Plus, the Eagles will be the wildcard, not the Boys.
For all the predictions, I go back to the trite “Defense wins Championships”. Well, it also can predict who is going to be the turnaround teams (as well as my picks for the division winners).
While their are notable exceptions (re: Colts), every team that made the playoffs or experienced significant turnarounds all started with great play on D.
New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Buffalo & Jax are all heavily dependent on their D.
Philly is the only dominant defense in the NFC, thus the only team that really gets any Super Bowl consideration. San Diego’s & Atlanta’s turnarounds was predicated on their vastly improved defense (albeit, both were not statistically leaders, they were much improved from the previous year), as was our Cowboys in ‘03.
Dallas & Minnesota are the surprises in the NFC - The return of the Cowboys’ D will result in a serious turnaround and NFC Champtionship game run…possibly Super Bowl. Vikings did nearly the same retooling (albeit through unreliable FA). Cardinals were a surprising D and may have improved…watch out.
For the same reasoning, Atlanta is going to tank. Same for GB, Seattle, Washington (if you call regressing from 6-10 tanking). Seems all of these teams either played above their heads or lost net talent.
Cleveland, Buffalo, & Jacksonville will improve. Miami is a mystery, but I say a very intriguing dark horse. Same with Oakland.
NE will be hurt by the losses of Crennel & Bruschi, and their corners finally being exposed. Steelers lost a bunch of talent, though they always seem to re-stock. I’m betting it finally catches up. The Jets will sorely miss Ferguson & Abraham (sp)
Philly vs. Baltimore for the Super Bowl. Dallas could make if the stars align.
Kevin,
Those comments sure sings to ring true. Other than a rookie running back, most other positions……..WR, TE, G,C, T, and especially QB take time to learn the offense, learn their routes, and timing. That is one reason I think Bledsoe will be a huge key. He knows Glenn already, and he will love Witten. Rivera was a great addition to the line.
Historically you can look at rookies that also struggled as rookies. But most figured it out in their first year. Sometimes later in the year, sometimes not as an every down starter………but many went on to finish strong.
I think this all points to Dallas getting better and better each week. You know speaking of Seattle, we were in a shoot out with them and managed to hold our own and win. I think our offense will be improved with a healthy Julius and reliable back ups……….Anthony Thomas is no slouch at RB himself………then you got Witten, Key, Glenn and a healthy Campbell.
The rookies on Defense are going to look like rookies on defense. Not much we can do about that. I just hope that Ware, Spear, and Burnett look like first, first and a 2nd round draft picks…….and are getting better each week. Mix in Henry and Aaaron Glenn our coverage improves…….Dallas is going to be sneaky good. The other thing that is nice about Parcells……..he brings in a guy like Glenn that he already knows. Reese is another known commodity to the staff. We don’t have a Marcellus Wiley back there to fail to fit in. I think the Defense can be very very good. I think it will struggle at times, and Parcells will always want more pass rush, but I think by Thanksgiving break we are going to start to see some of the potential of our Future Squad. Ware, Spears, Burnett, Canty and others. It could be a glimpse into greatness.
Ya know Fighter I wanted to say the Eagles VS Ravens in the Super Bowl this year too. My conscience just wouldnt let me say Boller leads them to a Super Bowl win (theres no chance in hell I predict the Eagles actually win one). Hence the safe Colts pick. But I’m glad u said it =)
looking back on last year. there where some pretty bad ball games played. the thing is that our offensive line was really crappy at times. jj was hurt at the beginning, and we had no back ups to speak of. glenn got hurt and was out most of the year, and campbell (the best blocking TE in the league) was hurt. so we upgrade the o-line when we added riveria. jj is back with plenty of depth. campbell is not only back, but i fell like he wants to prove himself again. larry allen is in the best shape of his “young” career. hahaha. and i would rather have bledsoe over vinny any day of the week. i think we will average 10 more points a game.
on the defense: our subtraction was as good as our addition on defense. we subtracted wiley. (one of the biggest bust we ever signed) and we picked up fergueson, henry, glenn, reese. now reese may not be the best fs in the FA area, but with the front seven and the better coverage that we are going to have at the corners. we may not have to have a major star at FS. but he may turn out to be one, or we may have one already on the roster. with a better front 7, and a much improved secondary. i think we will give up 7-10 points less a game.
and with this being said. with the improvement in 7-10 more points on offense, and with the improvement of 7-10 points less on defense. that is somewhere in the neighbor of 14-20 points difference a game. tell me we are not going to win some ball games. now this also doesn’t include if we improve on special teams. we need to score some points on there too!!!
GO BOYS!!!!!