Cowboys-Cardinals Preview
Posted: October 29, 2005 @ 5:35 pm
Two former division rivals are reunited Sunday when Dallas plays Arizona. The game will be important for both teams, as Arizona tries to build off a win last Sunday at Tennessee. Dennis Green’s Cardinals are a paltry 2-4, underperforming for a team some picked to make the playoffs this year. (That includes me.) The Cowboys need to rebound from a devastating 13-10 loss to Seattle. A win would take them to the bye at 5-3, a highly respectable first half.
When Arizona Has the Ball
Dennis Green is a stubborn guy. He was a long time assistant under Bill Walsh at San Francisco but when he became head coach what offense did he adopt? Walsh’s? No, it was the one-back, two-tight end formations of rival Joe Gibbs. Green later became more daring and made his Vikings one of the first to use a one-back, three-receiver set as its base offensive formation.
He still using that package in Arizona. Green has added Larry Fitzgerald to the inherited duo of Anquan Boldin and Bryant Johnson. The mystery has been finding a quarterback. Arizona acquired former Rams and Giants QB Kurt Warner, but he was replaced by Josh McCown three games into the season. McCown has been an improvement over Warner, but he’s been highly erratic, throwing for 350 yards some weeks and for half that the next.
One reason is his offense’s lack of balance. Arizona’s running game has yet to produce a rushing touchdown. It’s backs are averaging around 70 yards per game. Teams know that Arizona needs to pass and have adjusted accordingly.
The bad news for Cardinals opponents is that few of them can match up to the size Arizona brings. Boldin is 6′1″, 220; Fitzgerald is 6′3″, 223 and Johnson is 6′3″, 213. The good news if you’re a Cowboys fan is that the Cardinals offensive line, with all of its high picks, is playing so-so ball yet again. This means that McCown gets sacked a lot — 16 times in the last five games. It also means that McCown gets pressured and makes a lot of mistakes. Arizona has committed 18 turnovers in its six games, a neat, clean three-per-game average. Last week’s win over the Titans was the first time Arizona did not commit at least two.
Dallas will be tested by the size, but can probably win most of the matchups. The key will be stopping Boldin and Fitzgerald. Both have rebounded from injuries last season to play like first day selections. Boldin especially has regained his rookie of the year form. The Cowboys have shown a tendency to play matchup in recent weeks, and I suspect that Anthony Henry will draw Boldin, since he plays outside in most Arizona formations and Terence Newman will take Fitzgerald, who does most of his work out of the slot.
With so much rushing in the game plan, the Cowboys will probably keep more linemen active for this game. That means more Jay Ratliff, who plays when Dallas faces pass happy teams like Philadelphia and Seattle. Dallas will probably use a lot more of the 4-2-5 package they threw at the Eagles three weeks ago, since the running game is less of a concern.
Don’t think, however that Dallas will abandon the 3-4. NT Jason Ferguson is healthy again and his play the last three weeks has been a major factor in the defense’s improvement. Ferguson is making plays on running and passing downs. He has lessened the reps for fellow NT/DT LaRoi Glover and made him more effective.
Dallas has more flexibility in the 3-4 now that LB Scott Fujita is part of the rotation. He can play, and blitz, from both outside positions, so he lets Demarcus Ware roam the line. Ware has rushed from both outside spots the past couple of weeks.
When Dallas Has the Ball
Six of one, a half dozen of the other. Dallas was strong in pass blocking the first five games, but mediocre running the ball. Last week the running game showed signs of life, but was undermined by a severe dropoff in the Cowboys’ protection. The suspected culprits were the young tackles, TorrinTucker and Rob Petitti. Against the Seahawks, however, Tucker looked solid. He got almost no extra help from backs and tight ends and handled his man. He made two critical fourth quarter mistakes, blowing an assignment on a 3rd and 2 running play and giving up a half sack on a third down and goal on the series where Jose Cortez missed a short field goal. However, his play stacks up against a typical Flozell Adams game. He was strong in the running game and kept the mental errors to a minimum.
The real meltdown came on the right side of the line. Rookie Rob Petitti was responsible for two and half sacks and was flagged for holding. Less noticeable but just as damaging were the miscues of RG Marco Rivera. He gave up a sack that ended a Cowboys second half drive and committed two penalties. A false start was overcome but a holding penalty negated a 22 yard screen pass to Marion Barber that would have moved Dallas deep in Seahawks territory in the second quarter. It sucked momentum from the offense when it was trying to build on a 7-0 lead.
The mental mistakes can and should be corrected. Rivera is a long time vet and a Pro Bowler. The sacks are what cause concern. Rivera had given up only two in his last three years at Green Bay. After a clean first five games he has now allowed two sacks in two weeks. Coincidence, or might his back or something else be bothering him? Rivera had a touchy hamstring in camp. Stay tuned.
In Petitti’s case, the offense will likely return to its plan from the first six games of giving him chip help from backs and tight ends. Last week he went mostly solo, getting help on only two plays in the first half and on five overall. I don’t think Dallas will go crazy and offer him the level of help he got in the Eagles game. Chike Okeafor is good, but he’s not Jevon Kearse. Still, Petitti will get more help.
On the other side of the line, I think Tucker will get help on a need basis. Bert Berry is very good, but so is Grant Wistrom, and Tucker played well against him. One other player the Cowboys must account for is SLB Carlos Dansby. He gets to blitz a lot in the Cards scheme and makes the most of it.
Dallas must protect Drew Bledsoe better because his effectiveness is directly related to it. Bledsoe also needs some work on his form because he is showing some of the tunnel vision that has plagued him before. Seattle intercepted him twice, but could have gotten at least three more passes that Bledsoe forced into double coverage. Peerless Price will likely get into the mix more. He caught one pass for 19 yards last week and ran an end around. However, Dallas did not rely on its three WR packages as much as it had when Patrick Crayton was healthy.
Overall, I espect the Dallas game plans to be similar to those we’ve seen all year. Try to establish a balance between run and pass, take your shots down the field when you’re outside your own 40. I think the run/pass mix will skew a little bit — but only a little bit — more towards the run. Dallas might also go more to screens. The offense has run one per game the past five games and each one has gone for big yards, though two were brought back by silly penalties against Larry Allen and Rivera. Arizona will likely bring the blitz, seeing Tucker and Petitti. This is one way to temper their aggressiveness. Another is to rely more on the draw that Julius Jones ran so well. When Dallas was in third and eight and nine last year Jones could be counted on to make the yardage most of the time. Dallas ran Barber draws twice last week. He made nine and eleven yards. Problem was, the downs were third and eleven and third and sixteen. If Dallas can avoid sacks early in series, this play can work again.
Prediction: The game will turn on two factors. First, on how well Dallas runs and secondly on how well it protects the ball. The Cardinals will give up sacks and the ball. They’ve done so in every game this year. They’re one dimensional and the Dallas defense is probably the best they’ve faced this year. The defense might even get its first points of the season. If the running backs, Bledsoe and Keyshawn hold on to the football, Dallas should win.
But who can predict turnovers?
Dallas 24, Arizona 16
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Pretty much agree. Tucker did pretty well and it was Pettiti that stank. RIvera- looking like too much money. Matchup makes sense- hope we do it. I am still wondering why we were not running many draws when JJ was in there- it was his best play last year and we should be trying to use it this year.
Look for the Cardinals to strike early with passing The wide outs are their strength. I dont see them being patient enough to run consistently. I think Zimmer will game plan this on a wait and see basis. Play pass first run second. He will depend on front line to control their offense.
On the other side, I think it will be the opposite. Payton will run first, pass second. So we’ll see.
One thing keeps jumping out at me looking over the Cards games — they’re a 30 minutes team.
They’re close in every game until halftime, and either squeak one out or get squashed in the second half. In other words, you could be on the money, Linus, and Arizona could strike early. but it won’t mean a thing unless Dallas coughs up the ball three times in the first half again and falls behind 21-0.
Raf,
I think Berry is on a diferent level than Wistrom. Wistrom’s one sack came after Witten got tackled during a pattern and no one made a call. Tucker kept Wistrom at bay by hisself. No way he can do that to BBerry all game. I think
Pettitti will be the one who needs to hold his own by himself and Tucker gets the help.
How many touches does Barber get? Atrain? TT? Would love to see BarberIII with about 20 runs, TT with 10 in the second half and Atrain with a Goalline TD or two.
Also,
will we see that 4-2-5 that Dallas opened up with against Philly? I know they didn’t stay with it for long, but it sems like a perfect antidote for pass happy teams. And Blitz that QB!!!
Raf,
Did Tucker not get any help last week? I thought he did, but I’m sure you’ve watched more tape than me.
I think we’re in for a lot 3 WR’s sets plus Witten. I see Arizona blitzing 50% of the plays. Green has always done that against better teams, but so do a lot of coaches.
27 Cowboys, 17 Cards
Mr. T.,
Hardly any at all. I was concentrating on Petitti, but I watched
Tucker a lot and he held his own.
Raf,
I can only hope that’s true about Tucker, and it gives Parcells the confidence to open it up. I’m worried about the Cardinals defensive ends, but they are soft up the middle, hopefully we can take advantage of that.
With a young team, you look for improvement. Sometimes improvement is more important than wins and loses.
The secondary has gotten better with the long pass. A good sign. Now comes a new challenge to the defense. Can they get better pass rush in the 4th quarter? Will they stop teams with the game on the line? … time will tell.
The offense doesn’t get a pass either. They have to improve on making the screen play a weapon in their arsenal. No more damn holding penalties!! Can they consistantly run to both sides effectively, as they did against the Eagles? If so then maybe they can run the ball down in the red zone more efficiently. Do these things and protecting Bledsoe becomes less of a task as well. A good offense is like a well oiled machine. When everything is working together with a good flow its very productive. If one thing breaks down it all breaks down.
The Cowboys came out against the Eagles and gave us all hope. I would think Parcells wupped on his players this week, just as if they were playing the Eagles. This week and the two to follow are critical weeks of practice to set the tone for the stretch run. “Make the improvements … NOW!!” might have read Parcells’ shirt. Critical three weeks of practice. Critical game on Monday Night against the Eagles. Critical game against the Cardinals today!! Times are definately critical, and the Cowboys need to play with urgency. This is the time of year when smoke starts to rise from the trenches!! Were players are tougher and nastier!! Every play is a battle to the war!! Football runs through every fans veins with the hope that their team is victorious!! Only the strong survive!! These three weeks are critical, and we will see just what these young pups are made. Will they make their run? Will they stop teams in the final minutes of the 4th quarter? Be dominant on defense for 60 minutes? ….. Can they travel to Philly, NY, Washington, and Carolina to face the elements, and still come out on top? Or will they fall apart like young teams are supposed to? … Who knows? But now is a great time to be a Cowboys fan!!! LETS GO COWBOYS!!!!
Rafael,
Insightful analysis, as always.
One thing that keeps coming up in my mind is the kicking game. Something tells me this will be a close game. Arizona’s Rackers has been the best kicker in the NFL this year. We just signed a guy off the street who has never been in aan NFL game before. Now maybe Suisham is the real deal. But I would not want to bet on our kicking game vs Rackers right now.
I see this as a 13-10 game. 17-13 type thing maybe. I see both teams struggling to score a lot of points today. As we all know, tight game make kickers much more important. Odds are that does not help our cause.
One other point. If we do play a lot of 4-2-5, I do worry about 5′ 9″ Aaron Glenn against Az’s big receivers. With Newman playing the slot, teams know that Glenn will be on the outside. It doesnt take too much imagination for Denny to get 6′4″ Fitzgerald on Glenn. Now Glenn did a good job against T.O. But its a matchup that favors Az, particularly in the redzone.
Overall, I think Dallas will pull this one out. But its going to be closer than most think. Cowboys 17-13.
Big surprise,
JJ officially listed as out for this game.