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Divisional Playoffs Pick’Em

January 12, 2006

Ah, 3-1 last week. Not bad, but boy was I wrong about the Giants and Panthers. Going for 4-0 this week.

AFC
New England over Denver
I saw big chunks of their regular season matchup. The Broncos race out to a 28-3 lead. The Patriots try a comeback and get within 28-20. The play that sticks with me comes at about the six minute mark. Tom Brady drops back on a third and long and finds one of his receivers running free in the deep middle. In the long past words of Keith Jackson, “he was so alone, he was lonesome.” Brady leads him perfectly. It looks like the Pats will get new downs inside the 20 or a TD and a chance to tie the game.

The guy drops the ball. Pats punt. Game over.

That was then. That Pats defense was held together with tissue and paper clips. Richard Seymour — out; Rodney Harrison — out; Tedy Bruschi — out; the Pats secondary — putrid. New England still has a weak secondary but nobody can run on it of late. The front seven is healthy. The pass rush has returned.

On the other hand, the Broncos have looked a little soft down the stretch. The Cowboys should have beaten them. The Chiefs did. The Ravens took them to the final gun. They got two easy ones at the end against two teams, the Raiders and Chargers, who were done.

I don’t know if Denver can flip a switch and turn it on again. Moreover, I don’t know how they can switch on a pass rush they never had this year. Denver racked up just 28 sacks and needed strong production from its linebackers and SS John Lynch to even get that many. If Denver has to bring six and seven men to get heat on Tom Brady, it’s playing into the master’s hands. I see 28-20 again, but with the teams reversed.

Colts over the Steelers
I saw their regular season matchup too. Indy had too much speed for Pittsburgh, on both sides of the ball. The only way I see the Steelers winning is if they can control the ball for 36 to 38 minutes and get a little turnover help from Peyton Manning and his friends. Pittsburgh’s defense looked shaky against the Bengals. They’re playing a better offense and a better defense this week.

NFC
Seahawks over Redskins
I also watched their first game back in October. It was the week after Joe Gibbs’ comeback against Dallas and his guys pulled one out here too. I’ve read a lot of reviews this week on the big sites. They all point to Washington’s defensive dominance. What the reporters miss was that Washington played a reversal of the Cowboys game — they controlled most of the game and let Seattle back in it late. Seattle ran a 14 play, 91 yard drive up Washington’s gut to tie it late. They then intercepted Mark Brunell two plays after the kickoff and had first and ten just outside the Washington 30 with 49 seconds to go.

That’s when Mike Holmgren went Marty Schottenheimer on us. Instead of trying a bootleg pass or some play that could get his offense within the 25, he hammered Shaun Alexander twice inside and tried to position the ball in the middle of the field.

You know the rest, right? Josh Brown clanked his kick off the left upright. The Redskins scored in overtime and went crazy again.

The stat lines were balanced then. I don’t expect that to happen Saturday. Washington’s offense has disappeared since Brunell injured his knee against the Giants. They had to sweat out a game against a backup Eagles team and were shut down completely by the Bucs. Monte Kiffin showed the world how to gameplan. Stack the line, shut down Clinton Portis, take away Chris Cooley’s waggles, rotate your free safety to Santana Moss’ side and wait for the punts.

Washington has won its last two games on turnovers. Gregg Williams is on an incredible steak of late, calling defenses that match his opponent perfectly. But injuries may finally have worn his margin for error away. DE Reynaldo Wynn was lost with a broken arm. The secondary is playing on fumes. You know the Seahawks will try to bait Sean Taylor after his spitting fine.

Let’s put it this way: the Redskins can win by forcing more turnovers and scoring with their defense, but right now, it’s the only way they can win. And it’s asking a lot for them to do it three weeks in a row, all on the road.

Panthers over the Bears
Note to self — if you pick a team to win the Super Bowl, don’t pick against them come playoff time.

I picked the Panthers to win it all back in August. So I pick the Giants to take them out. Foolish me. The Bears handed the Panthers their worst beating in week 11. The score was only 13-3 but Chicago manhandled the Panthers line, sacking Jake Delhomme eight times. The pressure was all from Chicago’s front four. That should favor Chicago again, right?

Not really. The Bears got two early gifts from Delhomme. One pick let Chicago drive 8 yards for the game’s only touchdown. A second Delhomme pick inside his 35 gave Chicago a field goal. That was the game. The Bears were able to tee off on Delhomme the rest of the way.

Their offense didn’t do much either, amassing just over 250 yards. The Panthers just shut out an explosive Giants offense last week. Their job should be easier this week, against a one-dimensional Bears O.

Deshaun Foster, who ripped the Giants front seven last week, averaged 4.6 yards a carry back in November. But he only got nine carries, as his team was playing catchup. If Foster gets off to a decent start, look out. The Bears had no answer for Steve Smith then, as he caught 14 passes for 169 yards. If Carolina mounts any early rushing attack, we’re looking at a replay of the Giants win, where play action to Smith broke New York’s back.

That’s my take. It’s your turn.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under Games | 19 Comments 

Payton Holds Extended Talks with Saints

January 12, 2006

Update:
The New Orleans Times Picayune today wrote of Payton, “he’s presumed to be the leading candidate for the Saints job.” There was no basis for the claim, but stay tuned.

The AP notes that OC Sean Payton’s interview with the Saints lasted an hour longer than scheduled today. Take that as you will.

If nothing else, it shows the Saints had a lot of questions for Payton on how he might resurrect the franchise after they bottomed out this past year. Payton was surely asked his ideas on how to handled the team’s QB situation. Veteran Aaron Brooks was benched late in the season and the team has the second pick in the draft, fueling speculation they will take one of the Matt Leinart/Vince Young duo.

The Wisconsin press noted that Mike McCarthy’s handling of Brooks helped him land the Packers job. McCarthy was Brooks’ QB coach and the Saints’ OC for Brooks’ best seasons. The QB slumped badly last year after McCarthy left for San Francisco, though the Saints had many reasons for their subpar play.

Payton may be considered someone who could resurrect Brooks’ career, given his history with young QBs. We’ll likely know by Friday at the latest. The Saints are scheduled to interview former Packers HC Mike Sherman tomorrow and the Rams’ former honcho Mike Martz Friday.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under News | 14 Comments 

The Rumor That Won’t Go Away

January 12, 2006

Philadelphia Enquirer writer and ESPN personality Stephen A., aka “Screamin’ A.” Smith rubs out collective nose yet again in the Terrell Owens-to-Dallas rumor.

In doing so, Smith reveals, IMO, the fragility of this rumor. Smith’s logic chain goes as follows: Michael Irvin talks to T.O. regularly. Michael would love for T.O. to land in Dallas. Michael has Jerry Jones’ ear. Ergo, this could happen.

Smith also adds fuel to any desire Jerry might have for pursuing T.O. — the Redskins and their owner-with-a-Montana-sized-ego Daniel Snyder might pursue him as well.

These are all fine points, and Smith has Irvin quoted, so I don’t deny Michael’s interest in moving T.O. to his old team. But there’s this one, teeny-tiny factor Stephen A. overlooks:

Michael Irvin isn’t the GM of the Dallas Cowboys. And while he has the title, Jerry Jones isn’t the GM of the Cowboys anymore either. Sure, he gets his way on minor moves like Anthony Thomas, but who changed the defensive philosophy last year? Who moved to acquire Drew Bledsoe? Who ran the draft? Who had Jerry over a barrell just last week over a contract extension, a situation that moved Jerry to say publicly how much he had bought into this other guy’s philosophy on things?

T.O. won’t come to Dallas unless Bill Parcells wants him and I see nothing in the coach’s history to suggest he’ll spend most of his slowly-diminishing cap space on a risk that big. Sure, he’s put up with Keyshawn Johnson, in New York and in Dallas, but isn’t one Keyshawn enough, especially when signing Owens could compromise his ability to rebuild the offensive line?

This rumor will travel, but I don’t put much stock in it.

Assistants’ Update: While the chances of seeing both Sean Payton and Mike Zimmer return next year have improved, any chances that Norv Turner and Dom Capers might consider Dallas should they leave are diminishing. The Rochester Democrat & Chronicle reports that both former head coaches are on Bills’ HC Mike Mularkey’s short list. Mularkey fired six assistants last week and needs to complete his staff overhaul soon, while so many teams are trying to fill head coaching vacancies.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under General | 43 Comments 

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