Senior Bowl Caveat
Posted: January 28, 2006 @ 5:18 pm
The ratings are about to be turned upside down by Kiper and the gang, with the Senior Bowl winding down. Keep these things in mind, especially if you watched the game:
1. The practices Monday through Wednesday are considered much more important than the game. Most of the scouts were gone by Thursday noon, so use the early week reports to adjust your rankings;
2. Many organizations take the attitude that these events can only help players. Somebody who does poorly will have his career placed about a bad Senior Bowl afternoon;
3. Be careful not to drastically overvalue a good game or practice week. I heard Mel Kiper on ESPNews before the game. He mentioned the strong week Dominique Byrd had and how he might be a late 1st rounder now.
Pure hype. Byrd performed well and helped himself, but he was considered a third to fourth rounder before. He might be a second rounder now. The thought that a week will overshadow years of college play is crazy. But this type of thinking is what propels guys like Mike Mamula or David Rivers wind up in the top ten.
Back to Byrd. He’s playing at a position that generally drops. And he still won’t be the top rated TE. What’s more, ranking is a zero-sum game; for every Byrd who crashes the top round, somebody ranked as a first rounder had to drop. We won’t see 50 players taken it the first round, so which blue chipper is Mel willing to boot into round two?
That’s whyI believe Gabe Watson’s week will help him, but only a little bit. He has two years of play on/play off performance. He’s in a drive for his first contract. Is your organization willing to value three days in Mobile over two years at Michigan? And if you do so and take Watson in round one, can you be sure he won’t revert to his old habits once his huge bonus is in the bank?
My guess is most teams will say no to that last question. He’ll likely go in round two, because he’s got real talent, but I can’t see him moving up unless an organization convinces itself he’s it.
And that does happen. Drafting is a lot like falling in love. Some organizations develop mad crushes and act impulsively. They are usually the ones, far more often than not, who get burned.
Comments
-
"The Sports Doctors"
iTunes/
Winamp
Windows
Media
RealOne -
Cowboy Up
Dedicated to providing the best Cowboys analysis anywhere, our efforts are free of charge but not free of expense. Your kind donation today will keep our drive alive.
Thank you
Or mail payment to:
RV2 Enterprises
P.O. Box 150093
Austin TX 78715-0093
Advertisers
-
Fave it!
-
SiteMeter
Burst Media
Rafael-Do teams have a system to rate players value similar to the way they put a point value on a certain draft pick position? Or do they just make a board ranking the players at each position and going by feel of the value.
I watched 3 of the 4 days of practice, so I will rate the standouts from practice and then the ones from the game seperately.
Practice Standouts:
1. Nick Mangold - Center - Ohio St.
2. Marcedes Lewis - TE - UCLA
3. Gabe Watson - NT - Michigan
4. Kamerion Wimbley - DE - FSU
5. Garrett Mills - FB - Tulsa
Senior Bowl Game Standouts:
1. Max Jean-Gilles - OG - Georgia
2. Tamba Hali - DE - Penn St.
3. Joe Klopfenstein - TE - Colorado
4. Manny Lawson - DE - NC St.
5. Pat Watkins - S - FSU
My New Mock 3 Round:
1st Round: Bobby Carpenter - OLB
2nd Round: Nick Mangold - Center or Max Jean-Gilles - OG - Georgia
3rd Round: Pat Watkins - S - FSU or Joe Klopfenstein - TE - Colorado
Rafael,
It also sounded as if Charles Spencer impressed at practice during the week. He looked very solid in the drills ESPN highlighted. .. The NFL Network should telivise college Pro Days and the Indy combine if they want ratings. The draft has/is becoming the “big thing” during the offseason.
Sterling,
Hali and Lawson were very impressive. So did Lawrence Vickers, who might have moved up Dallas’ board. Lawson was a player I had hoped would go unnoticed. His athletisism makes for a good inside or outside linebacker.
Eric R:
I actually think Lawson can play DE in a 4-3, he just needs to bulk up a bit, which is going to happen in with NFL strength and conditioning programs. He could be a Charles Haley type that can be either a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 DE…which means he will probably go higher than originally thought. He also has a very long wing span. He looked great batting down that pass from Cutler.
Vickers looked good too. I don’t know if I believe it, but Kiper said he will be a 2nd round fullback. Seems at least a round too high to me, but there is that supply and demand issue with fullbacks too. I’d definitely rather see the Cowboys take Mangold or Jean-Gilles over him in the 2nd round, personally.
yeah, Sterling,
Kiper is giving everybody inflated grades. When you go back and look at all the first and second rounders he’s touting right now, he’s probably got about 70-80 players.
Sterling,
Thats the way I see it too.
1st round- Bobby Carpenter or Manny Lawson
2nd round- Nick Mangold or Max Jean Gilles
3rd round- Pat Watkins
When we discuss players who are moving up and down the rankings, one thing to keep in mind is that none of it matters. We are discussing the observations of self-proclaimed draft gurus and regular fans. None of the teams has as yet even begun to build a draft board for a player to move up or down. They won’t start doing that until April. And, they don’t pay any attention to the musings of these ‘gurus’.
Every team will create its own unique draft board, unlike any of the other boards. Players high on one board, won’t even be listed on another. And none of them will look like the ones we see now.
As we approach the draft, some of the observers who actually do have contacts with personnel people (like Gosselin), will approach reality with their rankings. Even then, there will be gross departures when the draft occurs. And, until then, we are all just guessing.
As for the mocks, they all become worthless once the first trade or the first so-called reach occurs.
This speculation is a lot of fun, and I enjoy it myself. We just need to not take it too seriously. It is unlikely to go the way we would wish, and there is always some number of people who will be disappointed. [I can only point to the 2005 draft, generally considered to be excellent. Yet, there are those who would have preferred Merriman (and still do), and those who did not like the selection of Spears (and still don't). Those people downgrade that draft, not because the players taken were poor, but because they believe we could have done better. This will always be the case.]
Mr. Bill:
Everything until now and draft day is speculation, as Chandus and Rafael have pointed out recently. A lot can and will happen to render these judgements totally irrelevant, as always occurs. I suspect there is no reason to believe this year to be any different than any other in that respect.
That said, I can’t get even get the slightest bit enthusiastic about the Super Bowl this year. As an L.A. citizen I am more excited by Kobe scoring 81 points in a game than Steelers and Seahawks, and that’s saying a lot as a football guy. I am and always will be a Cowboys fan like the rest of the bloggers on here, so I have to get excited about something other than the past. The prospects for the 2006 Cowboys fit the bill. I’m just happy to still be alive to pull for the Cowboys in 2006!!
I am sure a lot will change and mocks will be irrelevant, but I look at this team as something I have followed and cared deeply about my whole life and always will. Way before such a thing as the internet or blogs existed. I know all the other bloggers who post on here feel the same way, and especially you. I look at the NFL draft as simply a way for the Cowboys to bring in young talent that will help our team beat the other teams we face next season and for years to come, nothing more. It is not a player popularity contest, a future-millionaire glamour pageant, or a chance to show how many NCAA games we watched last season, but a way to evaluate who we would like to see represent our beloved team next season and in the years to come. That is all…who should be honored to wear the Star, and who is not yet worthy. Very few are, or should even be considered.
There are at least a few players in this Senior Bowl, and at least one who couldn’t make it, who can and will (I hope) be the next Lilly, Henderson, Harris, or Dupree. That’s all we are doing is narrowing down the selections.
In my view, only the very best should even be allowed to wear the Star on their helmet. I agree it is only for fun now, but come April it will be very serious business. We have to do our homework now to be prepared then.
To your points about trades and reaches, etc. Have any two players screwed up more mock drafts than Ricky Williams and Randy Moss?
Sterling,
Watching Lawson in the Senior Bowl, I’d have to agree with you. He probably will be a coveted DE for a 4-3 scheme. I had mentioned his name long ago here hoping he would fall through the cracks as a “tweener” that didn’t fit that system. He seemed to prove it was false hope. Sop that being the case, Lawson and Hali rise should move Watson back some, thus making him more attainable. … I also believe that Charles Spencer has become a legitamate option with our second round selection. Watch this player! The highlights I saw of him yesterday were of a seasoned OT (he is listed as a guard), and his 6-5 & 330 lb frame doesn’t hurt any. His foot work was tremedous and he had the knack of locking onto smaller faster players. Pretty much dominating them with his size. He is my sleeper.
Sterling,
I know what you are saying. The draft and all the speculation involved with it are fun.
As a matter of fact, this year, as in the past three, I am in the process of compiling my own list of top-300 prospects, as a consensus of all the top-whatever lists I can get my hands on. The time spent for this project will be measured in 24-hour man-days. Regardless, of the effort involved, the only real benefit of such a task is to better acquaint me with the top draft prospects, since I rarely watch college football.
However, as any kind of predictor (even though I believe the theory behind the process is sound) it is time wasted. Since it’s my time, I do it anyways.
Mr Bill:
I agree when you’re saying that reaches and trades make the mocks and projections look silly, but when you’re saying that what we think Dallas should get doesn’t reflect into what Bill and Co are going to, you’re wrong. Since Parcells came to Dallas, each and every opne of his Drafts was made with the single purpose of making his team more appealiing to his eyes, so he drafted the best player available, and we should all remember that in his press conferences he has talked that as of right now he’s selecting the best player remaining on their board, big emphasis in right now, that’s going to change now that he has a team that reflects his image, he’s going to fill needs and those are clear in this team.
My updated top 3 mock:
1st - Bobby Carpenter, OLB, Ohio St.
2nd - Daniel Bullocks, FS, Nebraska.
3rd - Barry Coefield, DT, Northwestern.
As I mentioned in another thread I want to add Steve Neal (RG) and Tom Ashworth (RT) to the OLine in FA.
BTW, this is a deep Draft in talent, that’s going to work against trades as teams won’t be searching to trade up as hard as how they used to.
Does anyone else wish we had like 4 early second round picks? I personally dont see a lot of differene between 18 and 30. But there is a big difference between the guys likely available at 35 than at 50. Between 30 and 50, I suspect you will see a lot of the guys that we have discussed go off the board. Lawson, Wimbley, Watson, Jean-Gilles, Mangold, Spencer, Lewis.
Anyone have a feel if Tamba Hali has the speed and agility to project to OLB? He reminds me a bit of Willie McGinest. He is a guy that might be available at 18 but not at 30…..
Gilles really impressed me- like a LA clone.
Ridgelake:
An ESPN interviewer asked Tamba Hali if he will play DE or OLB in the NFL. He seemed very emphatic that he will play DE. His actual quote was something about him guaranteeing that he will be starting the play with one hand down on the ground on Sundays this fall.
I agree with your points about the top of the 2nd. I hope this year we have a better second round than last year. Nothing against Burnett, he’s ok, but I had higher expectations from him. I hope we get at least a 2nd rounder if Ellis gets traded.
Eric R:
I agree with what you are saying about Lawson. For some reason I am thinking Gabe Watson is going to go at the bottom of the 1st round somewhere, probably to a 4-3 type team. If the Broncos don’t trade one of their two picks I could see them using one on him since they have a few pricey FA’s on their D-Line who may not be back. I have a feeling someone is going to bite on him sooner than predicted. He’s big and talented, you can’t coach that. Then there is that supply and demand thing with DL’s that Rafael brought up when we were discussing trading Ellis and Glover.
Chandus:
You don’t think Bullocks will last until the 3rd round? He did have a great game yesterday though. Especially on special teams.
Chandus,
I’m glad you see this so clearly. I’m sure a lot of people will see it clearly too, between now and April. Of course, none of them will agree, and will debate the matter fervently on this and other forums and blogs.
Good luck with your foresight. Those look like good picks. But, where are the offensive linemen? I thought you said Parcells was going to select based on need? Perhaps the Cowboys will address offensive line in free agency. Then again, maybe they will sign linebackers, safeties and defensive tackles instead. That might affect your choices.
Mr. Bill:
I just wouldn’t take any OLineman not named Ferguson or Jean-Gilles or Mangold or Winston. All the other names, at least the ones that played in this game, won’t be ready for this season and they might never be ready. And I wouldn’t take Gilles or Mangold or Winston with the 1st Rounder, at least not that high, and I can bet that we won’t see neither of those 4 guys by the time of pick 50.
Signing FA’s is a safer bet and one that could pay dividends early.
Sterling:
As I see it, he improved his stock in the Senior Bowl and in the practices. From there he only needs to take care of his business, which is his body, make a better 40 in the Combine and in his Pro Day and he will be the 4th Safety take off the board (behind Huff, Simspon and Bing) because in the end he looked better than Roman Harper and Anthony Smith in the Seniors week.
Found entertaining the idea of figuring out what would be the ideal package, and the most down to earth, that I could elaborate for you guys to chew. I have spare time, so it isn’t bothering me.
I’m figuring out just one trade and that’s for Glover with Dallas getting a 3rd Rounder. And I would love to see Allen retiring as a Cowboy, but there’s no way in which he’s going to get paid what he’s slated, work needs to get done and get him to sign a medium profile deal for 3 years that can be turned in a 2 year deal and I just don’t like the chances of that happening, so no LA in this roster.
Offense:
LT - Flozell Adams, Rob Petitti
LG - Marco Rivera, Stephen Peterman
C - Al Johnson, Andre Gurode
RG - Steve Neal, Andre Gurode
RT - Tom Ashworth, Rob Petitti
TE - Jason Witten, Anthony Mix (3rd Rounder) and Brett Pierce.
WR - Terry Glenn, Keyshawn Johnson, Patrick Crayton, Terrance Copper and Ben Obomanu (5th Rounder).
QB - No surprizes here.
RB - Same here.
FB - Jonathan Wells.
3-4 Main Defense:
RDE - Chris Canty, Greg Ellis.
NT - Jason Ferguson, Thomas Johnson and Barry Coefield (3rd Rounder).
LDE - Marcus Spears, Jay Ratliff.
WSLB - Demarcus Ware, Scott Fujita.
MLB - Bradie James, Scott Shanle.
JLB - Kevin Burnett, Ryan Fowler.
SSLB - Bobby Carpenter (1st Rounder), Scott Fujita.
CB - T-New, Anthony Henry, Aaron Glenn, Jacques Reeves, Nate Jones and Jay McCareins (6th Rounder).
S - Roy Williams, Daniel Bullocks (2nd Rounder), Keith Davis and Justin Beriault.
42 Nickel front 4:
RDE - Demarcus Ware, Chris Canty.
DT - Barry Coefield, Chris Canty.
DT - Jay Ratliff, Thomas Johnson.
LDE - Greg Ellis, Bobby Carpenter.
Picking a name in the 7th is easy but I wouldn’t know were to place him, most likely in the Practice Squad or on IR.
Sterling,
It certainly looks like Watson will be a late 1st or early 2nd round pick, but don’t count out the Boys just yet. Denver could move Dallas back into the 1st round (29th overall) giving the Cowboys a second 1st round seection. Why would this make sense? Shanahan is reportedly very interested in TO, and coming off a year were his team played in an AFC Championship game, he sees a window of opportunity to win it all. The Bronco’s coach might rather “draft” a proven vet (Glover or Ellis) over a young hit or miss prospect, especially since he has another, earlier, first round selection. .. The question then becomes: What will Denver ask for in return? Glover and Dallas’ 3rd rounder? Glover and Ellis? ..
I believe Ellis and Glover for the Broncos 1st (29th) would make sense for both teams. Denver would add immediate help to one of their weakest areas … pass rush. Plus they still have the 22nd overall selection.
Dallas, on the other hand, could draft Carpenter or Greenway, then Watson with the selection they get from Denver. Thus completing their transformation from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense and still having their 2nd and 3rd rounders to use on other areas. Possibly drafting Charles Spencer with the 50th overall pick. Then in the 3rd round, Parcells can take a player that has slipped, or take one of a bunch of tweeners that should be there. Elvis Dumervil, Mark Anderson, and Parys Haralson are all listed as DEs but may project better as LBs in a 3-4 defense. Players that would be good nickel edge rushers, but will possibly learn the ILB and OLB positions while playing immediate rolls on special teams. …
With their remaining 2nd day picks Dallas can try to fill some wholes. AT FB maybe Vickers or Mills. Brandon Williams could be a nice fit to play WR, but more importantly return kicks for us.
What about Boise St Tackle Daryn Coledge?
Could we pick him up second/third round and add another two Olinemen in the draft?
I saw a little of the Senior bowl and he looked very smooth and powerful.
I think that Max Jean Gilles is a weight problem waiting to happen.
I love Troy Vincent as a FS pick up.
If we use the First rounder on an OLB - the consensus here I think - then lets get some Olinemen/TE/FB Types with the next three picks.
I don’t think we can get an OLB and a NT or FS in the draft while addressing our Oline needs.
Being a first time blogger here, I gotta give you guys some props for very good analyses on our upcoming draft. I like the idea of a Denver trade but personally I was thinking bigger. Now this may be a lil out in left field but hear me out. I say we trade for Green Bay’s first and second round draft pick. This is a team that is in dire need of talent now. They’d love to make a run with Brett Favre at the helm and they are severely lacking at a gluttony of positions. My thoughts are we could unload any combination of Glover and/or Ellis, Rivera, Allen and since they are in the market for a running back either Tyson Thompson or Marion Barber III. This could free up a ton of cap space in addition to continuing our new youth movement. Just a thought but this is what i was imagining with our draft.
1) 5th pick Mario Williams DE(can you imagine this guy lining up with chris canty on some plays)
1) 18th pick Ko Simpson S
2) 37th pick Manny Lawson DE/OLB
2) 50th pick any of the big OT’s bound to drop (Eric Winston, Marcus McNeil (stenosis), Jonathan Scott)
3) Barry Coefield, DT
5) Dominique Byrd TE/Timothy Day TE
6) Reggie McNeal, QB/WR (he’s 6′2 and 209 lbs, runs a 4.3 40 and was still being compared to Vince Young before Young’s breakout year)
7) Best available
Lemme know what u guys think
Favre sounds like he’s gonna retire. They’ve got a first year HC and if he’s gone, they’re gonna blow up and start over again, which makes them one of the least likely places to trade veterans.
clam,
I don’t think Green Bay is in a must win now mode. If they wanted players like Riveria, they would have signed Riveria last year.
Denver on the other hand lost in the AFC Championship game for 2 reasons 1.) turnovers 2.) their inability to get to the QB. The Broncos should be in the market for a good pass rusher. Why not get an veteran end that has averaged about 8 sacks the past few years? Now that makes sense.
Glover has averaged about 6 sacks per year too. Coming from the DT position that is good. If he wins the NFL’s strongest man competition this weekend, hopefully it will show some teams that he is still La’Roi Glover, the Pro Bowl caliber player & the NFL’s strongest man, and not the guy who played out of position last season.
Now we might be able to get more than the 29th overall selection for both of them. But how much more? If Parcells is the negotiator that everyone says he is, then the 29th selection and Denver’s 4th rounder would be good compensation for the 2 vets (IMHO).
Chandus,
I believe where I differ from you (and many others) is in the importance of drafting players who will be immediate, strong contributors. I believe that is what free agency is for. I consider the draft more as a long-term foundation. If players selected can be strong contributors from the start, that is just gravy, in my opinion. If they don’t become stars until the second or third year, that’s just fine with me. This is why I don’t restrict my options to positions like running back or linebacker, where immediate contribution is expected.
There is a reason that we are advised not to judge a draft class until three years have passed. That reason is similar to why so many coaches are reluctant to play rookies immediately. First-year players usually aren’t ready to make the complete adjustment to NFL play. More often than not, they need at least one full offseason of NFL training for their bodies to mature. And they need at least a full season for their minds to catch up to the advanced rigors of the NFL. They are not only physically less mature than they will become, but, mentally, they just don’t know what they need to know to play most effectively.
In my ideal world, free agency pushes us over the top as a leading contender in 2006, and the draft keeps us there for years to come.
By the way, I like your proposed lineup. I notice you have dumped Larry Allen. I would rather restructure his contract to a more reasonable level and keep him around. I would also change one of your first-day picks to an offensive linemen. I don’t have anyone particular in mind.