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Draft 2006: Who’s Your Guru?

“Plays like Golath and can control two gaps and be very disruptive inside… strength and athleticism are better suited for nose tackle.”

– PFW 2006 Draft Guide on DL Brodrick Bunkley

“Won’t fit into a two-gap scheme; he’s undersized and lacks lower-body strength. His narrow base means he won’t hold ground in a phone booth…”

– ESPN NFL Draft Guide 2006 on Bunkley

“Two men say they’re Jesus, one of them must be wrong,”

– Mark Knopfler, Industrial Disease

So which draft “experts” are wrong? It seems ESPN has a problem, since its draft book uses Scouts’ Inc. for information and its web site has used Pro Football Weekly’s material for the past dozen years. As you can see, these folks couldn’t agree on the color of the sky. What’s more, on draft day, the folks in Bristol will turn to Mel Kiper Jr., who publishes his own, very different draft rankings. I guess if you say that every player in the draft both shines and sucks, you’ve got all your options covered.

One of the bigger tasks we face in preparing a board is figuring out which service deserves more weight. This year’s “consensus board” will exist in name only. In the fifteen years I’ve been buying draft books, I’ve never seen such wild fluctuations in player ratings. Bunkley is generally seen as a mid-first rounder, but if you go off ESPN’s rankings, you wonder why anybody would pick him on day one, never mind round one.

And the disparity does not stop with Bunkley. It will affect our views of every player the Cowboys’ value. More to come…

Tucker In Flux

You know that free agency is winding down when Torrin Tucker tops the news. Tampa Bay has signed the backup OT to an offer sheet, giving Dallas a week to match it. Tampa pursued several free agent OTs but didn’t sign any. Tucker would get a chance to start for the Bucs, which explains agent Jordan Woy’s comment that he received a “lot more” in the offer sheet than the $712,000 tender offer Tucker got from the Cowboys.

– As mentioned here yesterday, WR Eric Moulds appears closer to becoming a Texan. Moulds and Houston have finalized a long term contract and the teams are haggling over compensation.

The latest reports from Philadelphia deny the Eagles have pursued Moulds, raising the possibility that Moulds is Houston-bound. The Eagles were considered the Texans most serious competitor.

– The Redskins may add CB Jamar Fletcher to their long list of free agent signings.

– The Giants, meanwhile, are talking to WR Ricky Proehl and utilityman OL Grey Ruegamer.

How Do You Like It Now?

Somewhere today, Drew Bledsoe, Jerry Jones and Bill Parcells are smiling.

Word emanates from league meetings that Buffalo is quietly shopping QB J.P. Losman. Losman, you might recall, was obtained when Dallas traded out of the 22nd spot in the 2004 draft. The Cowboys selected Julius Jones, Sean Ryan and Marcus Spears with the picks acquired in exchange.A second related point came last summer, when Buffalo released Drew Bledsoe and named Losman the starter. When Dallas signed Bledsoe, there was some handwringing that the Cowboys had, in effect, passed up Losman for the older Bledsoe and the players mentioned. NFL.com’s Gregg Easterbrook summed the deal up thusly,

Tuesday Morning Quarterback assumes that had the ‘Boys kept their 2004 first pick, they would have selected Losman. Either way, Dallas remains desperate for a young quarterback… the team’s core dilemma remains lack of quality at quarterback, where the deflating Bledsoe is backed up by Drew Henson (18 career pass attempts) and Tony Romo (no career pass attempts). Should Losman become a star, ‘Boys faithful will be tormented by the fact that they might have snagged him.

No torment today. If there were any regrets, the Cowboys could get beyond them by getting Losman, for considerably less than a first round pick, I am sure. Anybody willing to do this?

In other league news:

– Read this story from the NFL meetings and you’ll understand why Bill Parcells stayed in Florida. To my eyes, it has little to do with his love or hate for Terrell Owens. It has everything to do with his disdain for the Metroplex Press. If they were this hard on Owens’ former coach, can you imagine the questions Parcells would have faced?

The same article claims the Eagles will pass on RB LenDale White if he’s available at pick 14. Good. He could really help the Eagles. I’ve beat this drum a lot, so you can razz me on draft day if I’m wrong, but I’m convince Mike Shanahan will select White at 15.

– It seems they’re playing the same will-he-stay-or-will-he-go games with Joe Gibbs in Washington.

– Eric Moulds may be Houston-bound, according to a source. I’m told Moulds has agreed in principle on a Texans contract and could be traded by the weekend, if not sooner.

– Bud Adams is meddling again. The Titans owner may be regressing to bad habits from his Oilers days, suggesting the team will draft a QB this year. (Hang your head in shame, Troll.) In the ’60s and ’70s, Adams would go for every Southwest Conference player he could find, which could make Vince Young a happy man if FrankenBud is indeed back.

– QB Joey Harrington is making the rounds, visiting Cincinnati yesterday. He has already visited Miami. Dallas has obtained persmission to speak to Harrington, though no team is offering the QB anything but a chance to play backup.

– The Packers are taking a long look at CB Charles Woodson. The Packers News speculates that he could be signed for a deal in the $4 million range.

– Ty Law is getting interest from the Titans, Seahawks and Chiefs. K.C. GM Carl Peterson says he won’t move on Law until the draft is over.

Parcells At the Bat — Updated

One year ago, I created a breakdown of Bill Parcells’ first day drafting tendencies and his success. I’ve updated it, adding his 2005 picks. It suggest Dallas should stay put at 18, or at least stay in the first round if it trades down. It also suggests that Dallas won’t go for an offensive tackle or safety in round one, unless Parcells is willing to break his tendencies this late in his career.

This list take into account all of Parcells’ New England picks (’93-96), New York Jets picks (’97-’00) and Cowboys picks (’03-’05). Players who became NFL starters are counted as hits.

Round One
Picks — 12, Hits — 12, Average — 100%

By position: 2 QBs, 4 DEs, 2 CBs, 2 LB, 1 WR, 1 TE

Notes: Every one of these twelve players — Drew Bledsoe, Willie McGinest, Terry Glenn, Ty Law, James Farrior, Chad Pennington, John Abraham, Shawn Ellis, Anthony Becht, Terrence Newman, Demarcus Ware and Marcus Spears — is still starting in the league.

Round Two

Picks — 14, Hits — 9, Average — 63%

By position: 3 OG, 3 LB, 2 WR, 1 OT, 1 RB, 1 C, 1 DT, 1 DE, 1 SS

Notes: Parcells best positions have been guard — Randy Thomas, Todd Rucci, David Loverne — and linebacker — Ted Johnson and Chris Slade. His biggest misses were d-linemen — Chris Terry and Dorian Boose — and the wide receiver Kevin Lee. His best picks were SS Lawyer Milloy and RB Julius Jones.

Round Three

Picks — 11, Hits — 6, Average — 54%
By position: 2 WR, 2 FS, 1 NT, 1 C, 1 RB, 1 CB, 1 LB, 1 TE, I OG
Notes: It’s boom or bust. The booms, however, are some of Parcells’ best selections ever — Curtis Martin, Tedy Bruschi, Jason Witten and Laveranues Coles.

Overall: You can see why I want Dallas to stay in round one. It’s hard to argue with a 100% success rate. Note also that Parcells goes for the foundational positions — quarterbacks, pass rushers, cornerbacks and once (under protest) for a wide receiver. I’ve listed three DEs and two LBs, but let’s take a closer look at those positions, since there is some overlap. The ends are Willie McGinest, John Abraham, Shawn Ellis and Marcus Spears. The linebackers are Ware and James Farrior.

Those four ends all played in 4-3s in their pro or college careers. If you put them in a 3-4, the breakdown goes as follows:

OLB (3) - McGinest, Abraham, Ware;
DE (2) - Ellis, Spears;
ILB (1) - Farrior

Dallas doesn’t need another DE after getting Spears, Chris Canty and Jay Ratliff last year. It does need another pass rushing OLB. If a top QB like Jay Cutler somehow fell to 18, Dallas might consider him. Same with a cornerback. Parcells’ conniption fit after Glenn was foisted on him suggests Santonio Holmes and Chad Jackson will play somewhere else. And all you TE dreamers out there — forget about it. Vernon Davis would make the passing game insane, but he won’t break the top ten and even if he did, Parcells only took a TE high the year he had four #1 draft picks, and the TE was taken last.

Looking at round two, the best bets appear to be guard or safety, if history is any guide. Whomever he drafts, know that round two has been every bit as bad for Parcells as round one has been good. Keep your fingers crossed.

If a LB is not taken in round one, you can bank on Parcells getting one here. It’s his favorite position, with 7 of 37 day one picks going for LBs.

Denver’s Activity Could
Clarify Dallas’ Plans

Chatter on the threads continues to bring up Santonio Holmes. Holmes has been linked to Dallas in many mock drafts. Some on the threads think Denver’s move up from 29th to 15th positioned them to get their pick of WRs. The Broncos were active in the Terrell Owens sweepstakes and are looking for WR talent.

I believe the Broncos will grab RB LenDale White if he’s on the board at 15 and found a story showing Denver isn’t looking for a WR with its top pick; The Rocky Mountain News reports that Mike Shanahan has inquired about Packers WR Javon Walker’s availability. The 2004 Pro Bowler missed all of ‘05 with an ACL tear and caused stir last month when he demanded to be traded.

If Denver values a rehabbing WR over everyone in this year’s college WR crop, why would Dallas think WR in round one, especially with a freshly obtained Owens? I think these mocks were compiled before the Owens signing and have yet to be updated. I can’t see anything but a LB or FS with the top selection, unless somebody rated in the top 12 unexpectedly falls to pick 18.

– Denver is also one of six teams pursuing a trade for Eric Moulds, according to the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle. A source told me today that the Eagles and Texans lead the pack and that a trade could be completed by the weekend. Moulds allegedly prefers to play for the Eagles.

Is Dallas Done With Free Agency? Update

Just heard from a source who has spoken recently with Marcus Coleman’s agent.  He says Dallas has not inquired about Coleman.

It looks more and more like Dallas will scratch that itch in the draft.

OLB — The Early Line

Because so much attention is being given to the SOLB position and because so many prospects should be available when Dallas picks 18th, it’s useful to consider which players best fit the Cowboys’ 3-4 scheme and which teams will battle the Cowboys for them.

– It’s important to understand that Dallas is surrounded by members of the Parcells family tree, all of whom play the same 3-4 scheme. Cleveland at 12, Miami at 16 and New England at 21 will all be looking for the same type of player as Dallas. All three of those teams also need an OLB. Cleveland’s Romeo Crennell needs a rusher to team with Willie McGinest; Nick Saban needs a partner for Jason Taylor and Bill Belichick needs a youngster to replace McGinest.

San Diego is a fourth potential rival. The Chargers were ready to snare whichever of the Demarcus Ware/Shawne Merriman duo the Cowboys passed in ‘05. They got Merriman and may look for his sidekick this year, since Steve Foley is getting a bit long in the tooth.

A source I spoke to over the weekend says the Browns, Dolphins and Cowboys have confirmed interest in Manny Lawson. Lawson appears to be this year’s Ware, a less-known name in December who has rocketed up draft boards after a strong Senior Bowl week and a dazzling Combine workout. Lawson has speed to burn, which explains why several mock drafts now have him going to Cleveland at pick 12.

Another source who has seen extensive tape of the top OLB prospects feels Lawson is a good player whose workout reputation exceeds his play. He feels OSU’s Bobby Carpenter had the best 2005 and could be the best rusher of the bunch. Carpenter missed the Senior Bowl and did not work out in Indianapolis because he’s slowly rehabbing a broken fibula he suffered against Michigan.

The same source felt Iowa’s Chad Greenway was the overrated member of the class. “He made all of his tackles without being blocked and always tripped people up by the ankles,” he said. This gentleman also quoted former Hawkeye LB Andre Tippett, a fine NFL OLB in his day, as saying Greenway won’t be able to make those ankle tackles in the pros because the players are faster. Tippett thinks Greenway could struggle in the NFL, despite his stellar college play.

I asked him to assess Penn State’s DE Tamba Hali and he feels Hali will play 4-3 end in the pros.  To me, Hali resembles the Vikings Erasmus James.   James was considered a tweener, having played end at 260 lbs. for Wisconsin.  He ran OLB drills for some teams but was taken by a 4-3 team and left at his most natural postion.  Jerry Jones did admit after the draft that James was Dallas’ fallback option if Marcus Spears was gone.  That should keep Hali in the back of our minds.

Draft Composite Board, March 26th

I found a composite board that averages the top 35 players from 45 different mock drafts. As you can see, however, it is not weighted. Take Eric Winston, for example. The Miami OT gets the 22nd overall rating here, based on an average score of 20.18 for the mocks that gave him first round grades. But notice that only 17 put him in round one.

I did a crude weighting, assigning a ranking of 35 for every time a player did not make the first round. Here is my top 32 (and I’m doing this in my head, so pardon any wild mathematical miscalulations).

1. Reggie Bush, RB, USC
2. Matt Leinart, QB, USC
3. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia
4. Mario Williams, DE, N.C. State
5. A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio State
6. Vince Young, QB, Texas
7. Haloti Ngata, NT, Oregon
8. Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt
9. Michael Huff, FS, Texas
10. Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland
11. Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech
12. Winston Justice, OT, USC
13. Broderick Bunkley, DT, Florida State
14. Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio State
15. LenDale White, RB, USC
16. D’Angelo Williams, RB, Memphis
17. Tye Hill, CB, Clemson
18. Chad Greenway, OLB, Iowa
19. Chad Jackson, WR, Florida
20. Tamba Hali, DE, Penn. State
21. Ernie Sims, OLB, Florida State
22. Marcus McNeill, OT, Auburn
23. Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota
24. Mathias Kiwanuka, DE, Boston College
25. Manny Lawson, DE/OLB, N.C. State
26. DeMeco Ryans, OLB, Alabama
27. Leonard Pope, TE, Georgia
28. Antonio Cromartie, CB, Florida State
29. Gabe Watson, NT, Michigan
30. Bobby Carpenter, OLB, Ohio State
31. Ko Simpson, S, South Carolina
32. Kamerion Wimbley, DE/OLB, Florida State

On the cusp –
Sinorice Moss, WR, Miami
Nick Mangold, C, Ohio State

Any surprise why Jerry Jones hinted he might trade down this year? The talent between 26 and 34 looks a lot more intriguing to me than the players rated in the 16 to 20 range. I’d be happy to move down, grab one of them and add an extra pick.

Is Dallas Done With Free Agency?

Dallas has filled its most pressing needs with the signings of Mike Vanderjagt, Jason Fabini and Akin Ayodele. It has upgraded its speed at wide receiver, exchanging the sound but unspectacular Keyshawn Johnson for the thrills of Terrell Owens, with all their good and bad connotations.

Does this mean the Cowboys are solely focused on the draft now? Important holes remain at free safety, nose tackle and outside linebacker and enticing free agents like Lavar Arrington and Ty Law are still searching for a team.

Rumors persist that Dallas could be interested in Arrington. Don’t bank on it. I was told tonight that Arrington turned down a three year, $13 million offer from Miami and will accept an $11 million deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars. A source mentioned that, “Nick Saban is in that Bill Belichick mold. Arrington didn’t want to play for a coach like that again after butting heads with Joe Gibbs.”

I have since learned that Arrington has yet to cancel his second visit with Miami and that the Dolphins are open to raising their offer. It seems Arrington is weighing comfort against cold hard cash. We’ll see which need wins out.

We can also take Law off the Cowboys’ prospect list, if he was ever there. I speculated last week that Law might be at the point in his career where he would consider a move to safety. Another source who spoke to Law early this year said, “when I mentioned the word ’safety’ he almost hung up on me…He wants to play corner and get paid like a corner.”

Law made $10 million playing cornerback last year. I’d stay there too if I were him.

Draftniks Wanted

With so much uncertainty over draft positions this year, I want to assemble a composite board. There are a few on the net, but they’re not weighted properly. One I saw rates players who get first round grades, but only averages the first-round grades they receive.

For instance, if the board reviews 50 mock drafts and a player is rated 27th on average in 30 mocks, his score is 27. A guy who averages 26th spot in 50 mocks gets a 26. This makes no sense because 20 mocks failed to put the 27 rated guy in their top 32, meaning he should get 20 rounds with an average of at least 33 factored in. What’s more, the online composite boards only go one to two rounds deep.

I’m buying PFW again, and The Sporting News. I will also spring for the ESPN booklet this year. I would like to hear from anybody purchasing Mel Kiper’s book, Ourlads and any other major ratings service. Your input will help me assemble the board, which I will then post or link to the site.

That way, we’ll have our own “big board” to go by on draft day.

Draft 2006, Key word: Chaos

The draft books are out. Pro Football Weekly’s has hit the newsstands, as has The Sporting News’ and for the first time, ESPN the Magazine’s. April is almost upon us and with it comes draft fever.

After one quick rush through the books, I can tell you that this year’s draft will be the most undredictable in years. I usually get at least two draft books a year and find that their selections are very consistent through round one, fairly consistent through round two and then begin to diverge wildy around rounds three and four.

This year, however, the wild disparities in player value begin once you get past pick 15. South Carolina Ko Simpson is a case in point. One book rates him 20th. Another has him in the early to mid second round. Another has him in the early third.

Many of Dallas’ other prospective target get stretched. Bobby Carpenter? Anywhere from late first to mid second. Manny Lawson? The same. Jonathan Scott? Anywhere from 25 to 50.

Who’s right? It’s hard to say. And that will make for some heated debates this coming month.

Addendum: Looking over some mock drafts today, I had a premonition. The 2006 rookie of the year will be LenDale White, who will be drafted by the Broncos. Mike Shanahan can never pass up a good back and he’s got the 15th pick now, after the John Abraham deal.

Arizona’s signing of Edgerrin James took away White’s anticipated landing place, but if Denver grabs him I doubt he would mind; White is a Denver native, after all. He would give Denver it’s first marquee back since Terrell Davis was in his prime.

Just remember, you heard it here first.

Ex-Cowboys On the Move

The biggest stories after Mike Vandergagt’s signing involved former Cowboys.

– The 49ers jumped ahead of the Raiders and Lions and quickly signed Larry Allen to a two-year deal.

– Keyshawn Johnson, meanwhile, won his bet with the Cowboys front office. Johnson felt he deserved a raise. The Cowboys balked and released him. Keyshawn got that raise from Carolina, who agreed with him on a four year, $14 million deal that included a $5 million signing bonus, according to ESPN.

– Torrin Tucker may join the growing list of former Cowboys. The restricted free agent visited Tampa Bay and will soon visit Atlanta.

– The Giants remain in free agency limbo. They have the money to sign one solid free agent to a deal averaging roughly $3 million per season. They tried to play Keyshawn against LaVar Arrington but neither was willing to be prodded into a deal. New York might lose both players, as Arrington has drawn interest from Cincinnati, Miami and Jacksonville. Some people on site have wondered if he could fill Dallas’ OLB need. Here are two reasons why he won’t — Carl and Poston. The hardball agent represents Arrington.

– The Eagles are in a war for Jon Runyan’s signature. The veteran RT does not want to move his family and this should play in Philadelphia’s favor. However, Runyan has received a strong offer from the nearby Jets and may be commuting to work in the near future. He’s expected to decide today.

– Never count the Redskins out of the free agent market, even if they’re already made too many moves. They’re still eyeing backups and would like to find a WOLB to replace LaVar Arrington.

– If you’re unmoved by the Mike Vanderjagt signing, consider what the Packers and Patriots face today. They either jump for Paul Edinger or make a run at Josh Brown. Brown’s good, but Seattle has the cap space to match any reasonable offer he gets.

– The Ravens raised some eyebrows by sending a large party to Vince Young’s pro-day workout. They’ve also scheduled a visit with the QB, raising speculation that Baltimore could trade up for him.

– Sorry, EricR. Your Charles Woodson to FS idea is about to go kaput. The Bucs, Seahawks and Packers are courting him to play CB. (Woodson also has Carl Poston as his agent, which likely makes him radioactive.)

Look on the bright side, there’s still Ty Law to consider.

Cowboys Add Vanderjagt

Dallas filled perhaps its most glaring hole by signing K Mike Vanderjagt today. A press conference is expected this afternoon to introduce him.

Vanderjagt’s signing could bring the Cowboys’ free agent signings to a close. Dallas still has needs at nose tackle, outside linebacker and free safety. The team could also use young depth on the offensive line and a young playmaker at wide receiver. The free agent options at these positions are old and expensive. Free agent movement leaguewide has slowed dramatically. There are still lots of players marketing themselves, but they’re of the Keyshawn Johnson variety.

Those top four positions — OL, NT, FS, SOLB — will be the Cowboys’ targets in April’s draft. The only question is in what order?

In other news:

– Keyshawn Johnson will visit New England and Carolina as his Get-a-Raise-2006 Tour continues.

– The Eagles are considering WR Eric Moulds, who is shopping for a trade. The Eagles may lose OT Jon Runyan, who visited the Jets yesterday. The Philadelphia Daily News throws out Larry Allen as a possible Eagles’ free agency target, but offered no proof. The paper tried to reach Allen’s agent but received no reply.

– The Lions are interested in Allen. Detroit GM Matt Millen tried to trade for Allen two years ago.

We’re Moving . . .

In the coming weeks, we are moving the blog to a different location. We have to do this because of all of you who have joined our community - quite frankly, we’re using more than our allocated bandwidth. The move will be fairly transparent - when we transition over, all commenting will be disabled. Once moved, they will be turned back on and anyone coming to this site will automatically be transferred to our new “home”.

More to follow … and I’ll make sure I post before we pull the ole switcheroo.

Wednesday Update

It appears Keyshawn Johnson will not don the Giants blue in 2006. The New York Daily News and Newday report that Johnson left without a contract yesterday and that no further meetings between Johnson and the team are planned. New York apparently offered Johnson a deal that averaged $3 million per season.

– Keyshawn has contacted Kansas City to express his interest in being a Chief next year. Johnson is acting as his own agent.

– The Giants may also lose out on LB LaVar Arrington now that Miami has expressed interest.

– The Jets are intensifying their push to sign Eagles RT Jon Runyan.

– As expected, Adam Vinatieri’s signing by Indy has shaken up the market. The Packers now find themselves considering Mike Vanderjagt, Paul Edinger or giving an offer sheet to Josh Brown. Just like Dallas.

– The Patriots, meanwhile, are looking at Edinger. He visited Foxborough yesterday.

– The John Abraham deal could impact the top of the draft. The Jets are dangling the 29th pick they obtained from Denver yesterday and their fourth overall pick in front of the Saints. New York wants to move up and draft Matt Leinart.

– Vince Young holds his pro day today. The Texans and Titans will attend, as expected. Another team lurking in the shadows could be the Ravens. Baltimore shows no signs of moving up, but wants to be prepared if he pulls an Aaron Rogers and slides out of the top ten.

– The power of creative accounting: According to the Washington Times, the Redskins are still $4.4 million under the salary cap. Some of that money will be used on draft picks, but the ‘Skins can still make a modest-sized deal or two with that reserve.

– The Packers are interested in former Saints’ QB Aaron Brooks. Brooks had his best years as a Saint when Packers HC Mike McCarthy was his position coach. In fact, Brooks’ performance got McCarthy his OC job in San Francisco and helped him earn his head job in Wisconsin. He may feel the need to replay the favor to Brooks. With Brett Favre still on the fence, McCarthy may also feel the need to get an experienced signal caller.

– The Cowboys will host K Mike Vanderjagt today. While scouts grouse about his short kickoffs, he’s the most dependable veteran field goal kicker left.

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