Draft 2006: Who’s Your Guru?
Posted: March 31, 2006 @ 5:45 pm
“Plays like Golath and can control two gaps and be very disruptive inside… strength and athleticism are better suited for nose tackle.”
– PFW 2006 Draft Guide on DL Brodrick Bunkley
“Won’t fit into a two-gap scheme; he’s undersized and lacks lower-body strength. His narrow base means he won’t hold ground in a phone booth…”
– ESPN NFL Draft Guide 2006 on Bunkley
“Two men say they’re Jesus, one of them must be wrong,”
– Mark Knopfler, Industrial Disease
So which draft “experts” are wrong? It seems ESPN has a problem, since its draft book uses Scouts’ Inc. for information and its web site has used Pro Football Weekly’s material for the past dozen years. As you can see, these folks couldn’t agree on the color of the sky. What’s more, on draft day, the folks in Bristol will turn to Mel Kiper Jr., who publishes his own, very different draft rankings. I guess if you say that every player in the draft both shines and sucks, you’ve got all your options covered.
One of the bigger tasks we face in preparing a board is figuring out which service deserves more weight. This year’s “consensus board” will exist in name only. In the fifteen years I’ve been buying draft books, I’ve never seen such wild fluctuations in player ratings. Bunkley is generally seen as a mid-first rounder, but if you go off ESPN’s rankings, you wonder why anybody would pick him on day one, never mind round one.
And the disparity does not stop with Bunkley. It will affect our views of every player the Cowboys’ value. More to come…
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the most accurate mock guys seems to be our own Rick Gosselin. he got Ware and Spears right last year. my favorite site is the huddle report with Drew boylhart since he watches film and usually goes against the grain of the copy mocks. he had ware last year as his favorite before anyone else had him listed. This year he has us taking Carpenter with the chargers taking green way right..hmm
I like his thought on Spencer being a better NT than OG. If true would make him a perfect fit for the cowboys in the 2nd because if he could not start at guard he could rotate at NT and would atleast make it to the games.
Mel Kiper just ran down his mock draft on SportsCenter. Survey Says……CB Jason Allen goes at 18
Slide
Maybe Allen and Burnett would inspire each other since they are both former team captians.
I just think it’s funny that pretty much every person on this blog thinks we’ll draft OLB and OL first, FS and WR second, but every mock draft I’ve seen online or elsewhere has us going WR or FS first, OLB and OL second. Yeah I’ve seen a lot of MDs out there that have us picking OL in the first round, but only one that had OLB like many people on here think. Just goes to show you how deep this draft is and how hard it’ll be to guess. Not at all like last year’s, although not a lot of people thought Spears would fall into our hands.
no discussion that this year’s draft has been hailed as one of the most deepest drafts in recent memory. for that reason, i cannot possibly imagine cowboys trading down or anything in that nature. when their turn comes up at #18, they will pick someone. period. no fancy trading down or that kind of nature. pick someone and wait for the next round. thats it. then of course here comes the question of who? ur preaching to the choir. i am almost certain rafael is wrong- i think broncos will not choose lendale white.
With the exception of the top 5 picks (Bush, Williams, Leinart, Ferguson, Hawk) the mock drafts seem to be all over the board as to where the rest will fall.
For example, the ESPN guide mentioned above says on Bunkley “His narrow base means he won’t hold ground in a phone booth.” Funny, because no less than two hours ago i saw Kiper Jr. - on ESPN mind you - predict that Bunkley will go No. 8 overall to Buffalo. Inconsistency abounds.
the reason why these “tv” drafts and the most popular drafts got us taking wr’s and fs’s is because its the most tredniest pick its what every body saw lastm year when we played the deadskins raiders etc.., with k.d having a year of experience y not take a chance on a 3rd or 4th round f.s i.e jason apel from texas a&m… i would choose fs only if there wasnt a big lb or ol avail at the 18th opick i would even go as far as trading the pick and try to fill the meat of our needs in the 2nd or 3rd rnd
One of the problems is that many, if not all of the draft magazines come out way too early. In fact, it’s the beginning of April before they should be finalized and released because they seldom have updates on the Free Agent trades that drastically alter their premature picks.
Many draftniks don’t have Dallas taking an OLB in the 1st round - most of these gurus are pretty evenly split - predicting Dallas will go with FS, OL & WR. These guys are just guessing, pretty much like all of us on this blog. I’ve read some intelligent analysis of Dallas’ and Parcell’s tendencies right here, and I’d say our more informed bloggers give a better picture of what Dallas may or may not do than the so-called experts do.
I’ve offered my opinion that OLB (or a DE converting to OLB) would be our best 1st round selection scenario because with the right pick our pass rush gets better which makes our defense’s weakest position, FS, get better.
Dallas’ needs align well with the depth of this rookie pool. No matter which way Dallas goes, whether they trade down or stay put, they should really, really improve their team with this draft.
My favorite guy has to be Mike Mayock on nfl network. He had us with with Ware last year and also predicted the fall of Aaron Rodgers to Green bay. That being said he is really high on Wimbley this year comparing him to our own Demarcus Ware and Shawn merriman. Wouldnt mind seeing this guy on the other side.
Yeah I think I like Mayock the most too. I remember that Rogers prediction to the Pack. I thought he was being ridiculous but sure enough he fell all the way to like 26 or whatever it was. I think what makes him good is that his primary focus is just on College players. He knows more about how these guys play than their coaches do.
I wouldn’t mind seeing us take Carpenter at No. 18. He was overshadowed by Hawk all season and suffered an injury, but he is the real deal. One advantage in taking him over Lawson or Wimberly is that he is a true LB so there is less of a learning curve, as opposed to a DE not used to coverage, IMO
Len Pasquarelli has a very interesting story about how frequently receivers change teams.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=pasquarelli_len&id=2391429&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab4pos2
Much of his mentioned movement concerns the Cowboys, and it’s worth noting that he writes “teams keep selecting wide receivers in the first round, quickly move them into the lineup, and eventually find they aren’t ready.”
I keep finding mock drafts saying that Dallas will pick Santonio Holmes in the first round and I constantly shake my head in disagreement. Parcells only once took a WR in the first round (Glenn in 96). I think Chad Jackson is the best WR in the draft, but even if he is there at 18 i don’t think Dallas would pull the trigger. Dallas has more important needs than WR
Rafael,
I don’t think it is so unusual for there to be such a disparity of opinions here. I suspect the teams’ draft boards (when they are filled out in a couple of weeks), will have similar disparities, especially with those players who have injury or personal risks. Some players valued as a first-day pick by one team, will not even appear on another team’s board. Even without those risks, scouting college players is a completely subjective endeavor. Two professional scouts will often look at the same player and come up with divergent evaluations.
As for weighting the mocks, I wouldn’t bother to guess at the quality of their outputs. If anything, you might want to weight based on the date of last update. That is how Gosselin gets so good. He waits until the last possible second to publish his final mock. Those in the national magazines are at a distinct disadvantage in that regard.
Perfect example of the chaos that is mock drafting. Mel Kiper has us drafting Jason Allen at #18. NFLdraftcountdown.com has us drafting Jason Allen at #49. I guess we might be reaching a little if Kiper is right.
Mr. Bill,
You do find disparities once you get about one and a half to two rounds deep — usually.
What’s wierd this year is that you usually find ironclad consensus for about 12-15 picks and then fairly cohesive consunsus in the next 20-30 players. (There may be fluctuation on positions *within* the clump, but the same 20-30 players are in the clump.)
I’ve never seen such wild varitions in the 10-20 range. Where one guy is 15-20 in one mock and 30-40 in another.
We already put all our eggs in one basket (TO). Wasting a 1st round pick on a WR would be like buying a second basket to just sit there and be empty. Well maybe not that bad, but it’d just be a waste. I’m sure we’ll pick a decent WR in the later Rds, but I’ll cry if we use our first on one. He’ll obviously compete with Crayton for the 3rd WR spot. It’d be nice if he could return punts cause Crayton wasn’t that great at it, but what if he does return punts and beats out Crayton? Then Crayton is the #4 WR and serves no purpose on special teams cause I doubt he can be on coverage (BP likes non starters to have duel roles if they’re gonna be active on gameday). Best case scenario –we spend a late round pick on someone with potential and has had success returning punts, and fills the number 4 spot. When we brought in Price last year he didn’t start and returned some punts, but sucked at everything so it was adios.
I think we have to get a OLB in the first RD(Wimbley, Lawson, or Carpenter). Then we get a FS in the 2ND(Allen if he falls) in the 3rd round we should get a OT or OG whatever is available. Then we get a WR in the 5th round. After that, we select the best players available.
what do you guys think about that? Any comments?
Slide,
Interesting example in Jason Allen.
I think we, as Cowboys fans, should start to realize one of the factors for “gurus” to guestimate their boards are their own conversations with the player prospects. Last year it was pretty obvious that the cat was out of the bag that the Cowboys had “shown interest” in Shawn Merriman, and a bunch of mock drafts had us taking him. … Last season, “Cowboy interest” in Merriman may have been a ploy by the Boys so no one would be able to forsee Parcells true intended target, Demarcus Ware. In the two previous drafts, the Jets and then the Eagles jumped Dallas to select players that the Cowboys were reported to have “high interest” in (Dewayne Robertson and Shawn Andrews). … I think Parcells and Jones are keen students of this “game”, and that is why they told Merriman he is the man if he is still on the board at 11. So I now view any “Cowboys interested in …” report with a grain of salt.
Good point Eric. I knew about the Merriman thing but not the drafts before that. Good thing we have a freakin genius for a coach. It’d be nice if BP sticks around after retirement to asisst us once a year during draft time. He should cause without football that man will wilter up and die (harsh but could be true)
I think the chemicals in Kiper’s hairspray have absorbed down through the skull.
Eric,
Good point…although…maybe…he wanted the guy people think he wanted and wanted the guy people didn’t think he would want. But, maybe he knew we knew he knew and actually only SAID he wanted the guy he always wanted but then wanted someone completely different and had to settle for a guy he then told everyone he always wanted.
Basically, how do you know Bill didn’t do the same thing with Dewayne Robertson and Shawn Andrews that he did with Merriman?
We may have fallen victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well-known is this: never go in against a guy from Jersey when the draft is on the line! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha -
Nice
Acowboy4life, I agree totally with your post in 17. That’s exactly how I see it too. One thing is for certain, the draft will probably not go as we see it because of so many variables and so much behind the scenes thinking from BP and JJ. I wish I was a fly on the wall in their draft preparation meetings! We can speculate all we want and have many great discussions about certain players, but at the end of the day we have no clue what’s going on in JJ and BP’s mind. I think that’s what makes the draft so exciting. Just as a side note- I feel BP is not in his last year, especially if TO isn’t too out of hand!
I’ve seen reports that indeed we were going to take Merriman, except he signed on with the Postons, so we went with our 1a choice in Ware.
Either way, I do believe JJ & BP participate in draft misdirection.
But one thing we bloggers have over the mediots is the ability to focus on one team, our Cowboys. Further, we’re not limited by a publishing deadline.
With the exception of QB, 1st round picks are expected to start and contribute. WR is the most consistent boom/bust position. Finally, BP always has a theme and targets need on the first day.
As has been stated, our biggest needs are OLB, FS, 3rd WR, and OL.
OL is clearly the biggest need. But they seldom are ready to start right away, thus removing them from Round 1. FS is not a value pick. WR is possible, but highly unlikely. Thus the blog’s consensus on OLB.
But after that, you can expect OL to come early and often, with a FS & WR thrown in. Top tier Guards are usually available in Round 2. OT has value in Rounds 4 & 5. FS & WR can produce some real finds in Day 2.
But given our lack of immediate need, expect BPA to dominate the ‘Boys draft.
fighter 15
completely agree with your analysis. I would add a caveat that the Olb is classified by some as Olb/DE. I am also would not be suprised by a running back pick at pick 4 and after.
Fighter15,
The only problem with your point about Merriman, is that he didn’t switch agents until after the draft. As far as I know, that came as a complete surprise to everyone, especially the Chargers.
I don’t see how the Cowboys could have known about it, since they have no contacts with the Postons, and, in fact, avoid them like the plague.
Raf:
What do you think of Dallas re-signing Willie Pyle to a one year deal. He basically played in the nickle package last year. I guess more of the same & insurance. He lacks speed & wasn`t terribly impressed with his tackling last year.
While I find Kiper’s hair to be ridiculous as well as some of his beliefs, I respect him for studying this stuff way before anyone else and being totally focused on the draft.He is a person to be listened to and taken seriously.
What I like to do, for fun, is list all the guys I’d like Dallas to take in Round 1, and then repeat it in Round 2 and Round 3, and then do a Best of the Rest group. It’s not scientific and I’m very influenced by the pre-draft magazines I buy because I’m not the type of guy to study the prospects myself.
While doing that, I found there is a lot of talent in our needs area - I think we’ll get rookies with decent upside in the 3rd & 4th rounds.
And I agree with most here - OLB if the right guy is available - and I think he is. I’m not too keen on grabbing a true OLB and passing on a talented DE - Ware learned a new position and did okay. The D is that much better this year & a learning DE/OLB won’t hurt as much as last year.
I think a pass rushing DE rookie can play right away vs a rookie line backer that has more responsibilities.
Maybe we shock the “experts” and trade down for more picks and pick up the end from Louisville ?
I hear alot of you talking OLB, FS, & OT/OG, but what do you think about NT? Ferguson is getting up there in age and Thomas Johnson seems a bit undersized. BP took 4 DT while in New England (usually rounds 3-6), 3 times with the Jets (including Ferguson), and 0 times with the ‘Boys. It is certainly a position which would help keep pressure on the QB, perhaps alleviate some pressure from KD. Further, it may help the pass rush if our NT takes double teams.
Just something to think about.
Vandy
I completely agree - in fact if Ngata or Bunkley were available in Rd 1 I’d love to see Dallas grab them. I didn’t think Ferguson was anything more than average - and that’s a lot of money for an average player. A force at NT would stuff the run up the middle and flusf QB toward our aboe average to great DE’s and OLB’s.
I think we grab one somewhere in the draft, but Ngata/Bunkley would be great. If only the draft worked out the way I want it to - then I’d only have myself to blame for the failures (lol).
There are several good NT prospects that can be had on the second day. I would guess that is where BP will go. OLB, FS, OL the first day.
Vandy,
The Cowboys spent a lot of time eyeing Gabe Watson, so you know they’re thinking NT.
Parcells has commented that you need two because it’s such a grinding position. You get double teamed on every single running play inside and your primary job is to grab turf and hold your ground.
boysrule,
Dallas plays a 3-4. They’ve got a rusher in Ware. Teams can dictate rush and coverage responsibility by where they place their TE.
Whomever the Cowboys draft will have to rush and cover.
sierrareef:
As an Oregonian, I have seen what Ngata can do. In fact, what he did is turn a completely ordinary defense with completely ordinary DBs into a national powerhouse last year (12th in the nation). He is a monster who got 11 tackles in one game!
I doubt he will fall, but if he does, I would be extremely excited.
I enjoy watching the draft every year,siting on the edge of my seat waiting to see who the Boys take.I also think ESPN does a great job with the telecast,CountChoculaHair seated next to Boomer,it just doesnt get any better than that!
Rafael,
Do you think theres any chance JJ or BP review these blogs? There is an awful lot of excellent insight put forth here on a daily basis. It would be like meeting with the Cowboys board of directors.
keystonetom,
that’s flattering but I sincerely hope — and expect — the Cowboys brass knows a lot more than we do. Otherwise, they’re in trouble.
Samiam-
Now that’s funny, I don’t care who ya are!
BTW ESPN is running a special on FAVRE’s greatest plays etc. Indicating something will happen today, the deadline for his roster bonus. If he stays past today, he’s there all year, I say. Stay tuned, We love you Brett! Good luck whatever you decide.
Mick says BP does get on the web and review not only his site, but also other Cowboys sites (as well as his opponents) I don’t know how much he does this as he is my mothers age, and she can send E-mail, store pictures, and play wheel of fortune, and that is all she can do. He may be all high tech and know what a blog is, but how much he gets from it, or how much time he has to go over it is another thing.
Howdy Bill!!!
Well since you put it that way.
Bill,
If you’re reading, welcome. If you want a source who can protect your anonymity and won’t get upset when you’re cranky and want to vent at 2 am, use the link on site. I’m all ears.
I don’t believe a word about JJ and BP not being in sinc on the TO signing. Pure BS from the ‘just make it up if they’re is no real news’, people. Way too many of those types in sports writing.