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Matchups That Make You Go Hmmmm

A longtime boxing maxim states that the best fights come when differing styles face off. A boxer versus a slugger provides a more compelling matchup than two sluggers or two jab-and-dancers in the ring.

If the same holds for football, we could have some really good games next weekend. Consider the Colts vs. the Chiefs. Kansas City hammers with Larry Johnson. The Colts can’t stop the run. The Colts throw as well as anybody. The Chiefs will try to prove they can stop people better under Herman Edwards than they did under Dick Vermeil. The Chiefs are the rock. Will Indy be the scissors or the paper?

The late Saturday match is the blunder bowl. Which of the Cowboys and Seahawks can patch their leaks better than the other? The so-so defenses suggest a shootout, but the coaches know each other very well, which probably means bet the under.

Sunday’s late matchup features the Giants and Eagles. Philly’s hot. New York’s not. But they’re division rivals who played two close games this year. I give the Eagles an edge, but anything is possible when teams play round three.

The most nervous guy next week might be New England’s Bill Belichick. He should be the most confident, but how would you feel if Dallas was hosting New Orleans a second time next weekend? You would have probably already sweat through one undershirt thinking about a second helping of Sean Payton.

Eric Mangini already beat his mentor once this season — in New England. Belichick took some guff for his less-than-gracious behavior afterwards. I’ll bet he’d rather face anybody in next week’s field except New York.

That said, Belichick still has Tom Brady, so he’ll probably sleep some the next few days.

The No Fun League

During a playoff run many years ago, Norv Turner was asked if he was having fun. He snapped that nobody in the NFL has fun this time of year.

Watching the calls on site for Bill Parcells’ head, Mike Zimmer’s head and any other available head on a platter, I wonder who is happy today?

Should Marvin Lewis’ figurative head be lopped off too? His team collapsed down the stretch and had it beaten Pittsburgh at home today, would have qualified for the playoffs because Denver lost to San Francisco.

What about Mike Shanahan? His team also missed the playoffs with a home loss to a losing team.

Should Tom Coughlin’s head be served up? He’s as tough as they come, yet his team went 2-6 in the second half.

What about Joe Gibbs? He got the most free agent toys in football this offseason, and went 6-10.

What about Mike Holmgren? The NFC champs went 9-7 and lost to Arizona and San Francisco in December. He’s not carrying much more momentum into his matchup with Dallas next week.

Bill Cowher? 8-8 with the defending Super Bowl champs. His QB turned into a pumpkin and there are rumors he may retire next week.

Tony Dungy? He got Anthony McFarland at the trading deadline and his run defense still can’t stop anybody. The Colts went 3-4 down the stretch and unless they catch lightning in a bottle, another year in Peyton Manning’s window will pass.

What about Marty Schottenheimer? He went 14-2 and yet if he fails to reach the Super Bowl, he’ll hear he’s “the same old Marty.” He has a frosty relationship with his GM and I heard rumors last week that he could get fired if he has another one-and-out postseason.

And Nick Saban? Lots of people were chatting his team up for the Super Bowl four months ago. Now, he’s all but signed and sealed for Alabama, if you believe the rumor mill.

Every guy on this list has at least one Super Bowl ring, AFL Championship ring or NCAA National Championship on his resume. Five of them are actually in the playoffs, but today, they’re all bums.

Who is feeling good today? I imagine Sean Payton and Eric Mangini feel no pain. Maybe Mike Nolan, who has the Niners moving up, but I can’t think of too many more.

Among the veterans, Bill Belichick is safe and Andy Reid has a solid organization backing him up, but he knows “Fire Andy Reid” t-shirts were being sold in the parking lot outside Lincoln Field just a month ago.

It’s a fickle business.

Detroit 39, Dallas 31 — Romo Takes, Romo Gives Away

Starting position for Detroit scoring drives today:

1. Dallas 36 after a 40 yard punt return. Result — field goal;
2. Dallas 21 after a 36 yard punt return and a 15 yard penalty. Result — touchdown;
3. Dallas 40 after a muffed punt. Result — touchdown;
4. Dallas 28 after a Tony Romo interception. Result — touchdown;
5. Dallas 13 after a Romo fumble. Result — field goal.

That’s five real short fields, for 27 Detroit points. When the Lions had to start in their half, they drove for 12 points.

We saw the good aspects of Tony Romo the gunslinger today. We also saw the bad side.

Of all the Cowboys’ foibles and fumbles, this is the line that disturbs me the most:

Dallas backs: 17 rushes for 43 yards. A 2.5 yard average.

Couple that with these numbers for Jones and Barber the last month:

• vs. Giants: 23 carries for 100 yards;
• vs. Saints: 13 carries for 115 yards, 12 carries for 38 yards after Jones opening 77 yard dash.
• vs. Falcons: 24 carries for 95 yards;
• vs. Eagles: 16 rushes for 41 yards;

Forget Julius vs. Marion. Julius AND Marion no longer get it done. The run blocking has evaporated. The game plan is falling on Romo’s shoulders. For all his play-making skill, if you force him to chuck it 40 times a game, you’re cooked, cause he’ll make some mistakes if he has to play Warren Moon in the run and shoot. That’s too much pressure to put on any QB, especially one whose pro career spans ten games.

2nd Half Thread — Lions @ Cowboys

The Dumbass Bowl

Let’s look at one often-neglected area of play and see how it has killed Dallas today.

I’m talking about punts.

1. The Cowboys gave up 40 yards to Eddie Drummond on Detroit’s first return, setting them up at the Dallas 36. Two first downs and the Lions got their second field goal of the day.

2. The Cowboys gave up 36 yards on Drummond’s second return. A 15 yard penalty on Tony Parrish during the play let Detroit start on Dallas’ 21. A TD pass to Roy Williams put the Lions up 13-0

3. After Dallas stopped the Lions and forced a punt with 1:14 left. The Cowboys have taken a 14-13 lead and look to have the time to add more. Terence Newman then muffs the punt, which Detroit recovers at the Dallas 40. Williams catches a second TD just before the half over Aaron Glenn and it’s Detroit with a 20-14 halftime lead.

Notes:

– Demarcus Ware ate his Wheaties today. He’s rolled over Jeff Backus for three first half sacks.

– Chris Canty has made a couple of strong rushes inside. The second drew a holding penalty. Hope the light is going on in his head. If he can do this consistently, the Dallas rush rises to another level.

– The Cowboys are playing a lot of nickel, with Stephen Bowen playing DT. I assume Jay Ratliff’s shouder is still too tender.

– The Dallas rushing attack is wearing down. While people are focusing on the backs, I think the line, especially the right side of Marco Rivera and Marc Colombo may be running out of gas. Colombo has been pushed around a bit this half.

Open Thread — Lions @ Cowboys

Set ‘Em Up

It appears next week’s NFC playoff slate is set.

The Giants win puts them in. Not 100% in but it would take a miracle for the Packers to leapfrog them.

New York’s win knocks the Falcons out, so forget them beating the Eagles in Philly tomorrow. Dallas pretty much has the 5th seed locked up, barring an Eagles stumble.

Which means:

1. The Cowboys will travel to Seattle;
2. The Eagles will host the Giants.

Let me add that this makes three NFC East teams in the playoffs. I’ll have to check for the exact date, but it’s been years since one division accomplished this. I’m not sure this has occurred since the NFL went back to four divisions per conference.

Duh!

I’m sitting here watching the Redskins-Giants game and an obvious fact about the NFL’s standoff with the major cable operators finally became clear to my creaky mind.

Big boys like Time Warner and Cox have balked because the NFL has demanded a fee-per-subscriber roughly three times what major channels like CNN, Fox and ESPN draw. Why, I have wondered, does the NFL want so much money when they offer so little live product?

Could it be because they plan on dragooning more live games onto the NFL network in the near future? It’s the only explanation that makes sense.

Preview — Lions @ Cowboys

The Cowboys defense faces the complement to the Atlanta challenge. You’ll recall that two weeks ago Dallas played Atlanta’s #1 ranked running game and 32nd ranked passing game. The game plan called for eight men in the box. The Cowboys gambled that they could contain the Atlanta running attack and not sustain severe damage from the deep Falcons passes on their single coverage.

For the most part, the plan worked. Michael Vick picked on sore kneed Anthony Henry, but Dallas prevented the Falcons backs and Vick from running amok. The Cowboys stopped Atlanta in the final 25 minutes of the game and won 38-28.

This week, Detroit presents the other extreme. They bring a highly rated passing game, 7th overall, that compensates for the worst running attack in football.

When Detroit Has the Ball

How bad is the NFL’s worst running attack? The Lions have averaged just 44 yards rushing per game the past five weeks. They run on just 37% of their downs. The Lions are having extreme growing pains implementing Mike Martz’ wide open West Coast Offense (the real, Don Coryell/Ernie Zampese/Norv Turner package). Martz still runs his wide open schemes, which rely on three and four receiver sets to spread the field. He eschews caution, choosing to go with five and seven step timing routes down the field. You see very little activity from tight ends, when the system is running smootly.

Unfortunately, from Detroit’s perspective, they lack the personnel to make it hum. Martz has a blue chip WR in former Texas Longhorn Roy Williams, who provides the big play threat. He has a big, possession type receiver in Mike Furrey, who works the sidelines and intermediate middle. He has a steady QB in Jon Kitna.

But that’s about it, as Austin Powers would say. The Lions lost RB Kevin Jones a few weeks ago and rely on backup Arlen Harris. He’s game, but the Lions face an undermanned line, in addition to their understaffed receiving corps. The Lions sport a good LT in Jeff Backus and a decent center in Dominic Raiola. However, they’ve lost starting guards Ross Verba and Damien Woody to injury. (They were not pleased with the bit ticket signing Woody’s poor conditioning anyway and rumor has him leaving this offseason.)

As a result, Cowboys washout Stephen Peterman starts for Detroit at right guard. What’s more, they’ve had to force feed rookie Jonathan Scott the right tackle position. Add Martz’s refusal to rein in his freewheeling game plans and you have a line that’s surrendered an NFC high 58 sacks. They’ve given up 25 in the last five games. For comparison’s sake, when Dallas’ line collapsed last December, it allowed an average of four sacks per game. Detroit’s protection is one degree worse.

This represents a good news/bad news propostion for the Cowboys defenders. the good news is that Detroit defines one-dimesionality. The Cowboys can focus nearly all their attention on the passing game. The bad news, as everyone knows, is that Dallas’ weakness is stopping the pass.

How might they approach Martz’ unit? Will they go to a nickel package straight away and put extra defenders in the secondary, counting on a front six to handle the run? The Cowboys have not done this in either of the past two seasons, preferring to stick to a base 3-4 regardless of what the opposition is doing on first downs. This worked against the Colts, but was exposed in the Eagles and Saints losses.

Parcells mentioned in today’s presser that his defense could disrupt Detroit by improving the rush and by working harder at disrputing the timing routes the Lions wideouts run. This suggest more man coverage, with emphasis on jamming the receivers at the line. I would look for more of the 4-2-5 look on early downs, until Detroit demonstrated an ability to beat it with runs.

I would also look for lots more of Demarcus Ware on the left side, where he matches up against the rookie Scott. I would look for overloads and stunts from Kitna’s right, hoping to work over Scott and Peterman.

The key will be containing Williams. The Lions have a league low four plays of 40 yards or more. Williams has three of them. You know he’ll be matched up against Henry, who’s been gutting out his inflamed knee. Dallas should give him safety help over the top. The Cowboys have used Jacques Reeves as their nickel safety on that side of the field lately and I see him getting more reps to aid Henry over the top.

When Dallas has the Ball

Dallas faces yet another Tampa-2 team, after playing Indianapolis and Tampa Bay in recent weeks. New Lions HC Rod Marinelli coached the Bucs D-line and brought the scheme with him. As with his offense, he lacks the overall talent to make the scheme flourish.

The Lions don’t have a strength. They have trouble stopping the run and pass in equal measure. Their starting defensive line has just nine sacks to its credit. DT Cory Redding (GM Matt Millen loves U. of Texas players) has seven of them. The Lions rank 29th in sacks. Their 3rd down pass efficiency is almost as bad as Dallas’. This means the Lions can’t get off the field. They rank 31st in time of possession.

With Terrell Owens struggling with bad hands and bad routes, look for a repeat of the Tampa Bay game plan. Expect a ball control mix of runs and short throws, to help establish Tony Romo in an early rhythm. He was rusty in the Cowboys big losses to New Orleans and Philadelphia, missing open receivers down the field. The Lions linebacking corps is beaten up, so look for another busy week for Jason Witten.

Overall

The Lions have continued to play hard for their new coach. They’re undermanned but Dallas could have some frustrating early moments. The key to a successful game will be getting some early Detroit punts. The Saints and Eagles both started fast and Atlanta got rolling when Romo gave them an early interception to work with. The young Cowboys defense relies on emotion and getting some early plays could boost it sky high.

Even if the Lions move, they shouldn’t be able to roll down the field. Their poor running game kills them in the red zone, because they lack the muscle to push into the end zone. Romo mentioned that Dallas has a strong week of practice and Parcells seconded that today. “We weren’t perfect, but we were good,” he said.

Against Detroit, good should be good enough.

Dallas 27, Detroit 21

Keep Perspective, Round Two

I think everyone agrees a good free safety could help, as could another pass rusher. How much could just these two upgrades help?

Let’s take a look at three defenses. I’ll call them Defense X, Defense Y and Defense Z:

Defense X
Overall — 14th
vs. rush — 8th
vs. pass — 21st
Scoring — 17th

Defense Y
Overall — 12th
vs. rush — 9th
vs. pass — 22nd
Scoring — 18th

Defense Z
Overall — 1st
vs. rush — 1st
vs. pass — 8th
scoring — 5th

Defense X and Y have almost identical rankings. Both are good but not great against the run and have lots of trouble stopping the pass.

Defense X is the 1991 Dallas Cowboys, the Jimmy Johnson-built unit that went 11-5 and was then destroyed by Detroit’s Erik Kramer 38-6 in the divisional playoffs. That unit’s secondary had Larry Brown and Ike Holt at corners, James Washington at strong safety and Ray Horton at the free. The line by year’s end had Tony Casillas and Russell Maryland at tackles with Tony Tolbert and Daniel Stubbs playing end.

It was three starters away from the unit that won Super Bowl 27. Kevin Smith was drafted the following April and replaced Holt. Charles Haley was obtained from San Francisco and replaced Stubbs. Dallas traded for Pittsburgh’s Thomas Everett just before the deadline and filled in the final hole, pushing the aging Horton to the bench.

The enriched Defense X evolved into Defense Z the following year. You can see how filling your secondary holes and adding that domino-toppling rusher made all the difference.

Defense Y is the 2006 Cowboys. They’re in the same place the ‘91 defense was. In fact, they’re probably a little closer to a complete eleven, because they’re much stronger and deeper at cornerback.

I expect a free safety to be found this offseason, either in free agency or early on day one of the draft. The rusher might be a harder get. Players like Charles Haley don’t grow on trees, but I won’t say it’s impossible to find another one. After all, how many people knew Tony Romo was going to fill the QB need at this point last year?

What Can They Do?

At today’s presser, Bill Parcells resisted calls to lapse into an angry, gloomy assessment of his team. He pushed so many smiles back at the hectoring press he was accused by one writer of being a Pollyanna. Another pointed out that he was far more negative early in his coaching career.

Said Parcells, “that’s when I knew we were going to win all the time. I’m trying to take a more optimistic approach today.”

Parcells pointed out that none of the persistent questions from least season and the summer are voiced anymore. Nobody asks about red zone proficiency, about the play calling, about troubles on the road. He also chided the press for being extremists in assessing each game. “It’s either the outhouse or the castle in this town,” he remarked.

I’ve decided to take him up on his suggestion. I’m going in search of some Parcells sunshine. How did Dallas rate in a longer view, the Saints and Eagles losses included? I’ll begin with this question, is the team better on either side of the ball than last year, when Dallas was also 9-6 and in the running?

Let’s start with a shorter long metric. At midseason Dallas was 4-4. They’re 5-2 so far this half. Go back and read some of the threads after the Redskins loss. How many posters claimed that 6-2 would be necessary to reach the playoffs? How many dismissed that outcome out of hand? It’s not done yet, but it’s possible. Those two losses reek, but 6-2 down the stretch, even in a watered down year, isn’t bad.

Now, to team performance:

Cowboys NFL rankings, 2005 vs. 2006
Total offense — 13th vs. 5th
Rushing off. — 13th vs. 11th
Passing off. — 15th vs. 7th
3rd down eff. — 11th vs. 2nd
Sacks allowed — 28th vs. 17th
Scoring — 15th vs. 4th

Turnovers — 19th (-5) vs. 13th (+4)
Penalty Edge — 3rd vs. 31st

Total defense — 10th vs. 12th
Rushing def. — 15th vs. 9th
Passing def. — 11th vs. 22nd
3rd down eff. — 6th vs. 27th
Sacks — 16th vs. 24th
Scoring — 12th vs. 18th

I’ll meet you halfway, Bill. The offense is better. Much better in fact. Fewer sacks, better running, better passing, better red zone, much better scoring.

But those pass defense numbers make me cringe. See the symboisis between a weak rush and weak covering safeties? They feed off each other, in a negative way. As a result, the Cowboys can get teams into 3rd and long, but can’t get them off the field. But then, you saw Monday’s game. You know that.

Cry For a Nickel

“If you cry for a nickel,
You’ll die, for a dime.”

– Robert Johnson, Last Fair Deal Gone Down

Cry for the nickel, and the dime. And the base sets too while you’re at it.

The Dallas defensive meltdown continues. It began with the inability of the nickel sets to get Philadelphia off the field. On the Eagles’ long opening drive, the Cowboys twice had Philadelphia in third and long early but they converted both times. A 12 yard crossing route on third and ten delivered them one time and an eight yard pass to L.J. Smith a second time. The Smith pass was puzzling; he found himself matched up on Aaron Glenn, who gave him a lot of cushion. Smith ran a simple slant. Glenn missed his tackle, but didn’t get the tight end until the first down mark. Terence Newman later was a count late on a sliding Dante Stallworth reception over the middle. It was that type of day.

The problems with deep middle coverage continue. Stallworth turned Pat Watkins inside out on a 35 yard reception on the play following the Eagles’ 4th and 1 stop. Matt Schobel’s TD grab came on a easy stroll up the middle of Dallas’ coverage where neither Bradie James nor Roy Williams touched him. With Anthony Henry now playing on a sore knee, you’ve got half the field vulnerable on every play.

The bigger issue comes inside, where the middle of Philly’s line road graded the Dallas interior. I gave the outside linebackers some stick, but they made plays from time to time. Demarcus Ware had a sack. Al Singleton made some stops and Bobby Carpenter did some things on his first two series. Inside was another story. Akin Ayodele had one tackle. Bradie James had four and three assists, but they came well downfield. Roy Williams, the Pro Bowl strong safety, had one tackle on a day when Philadelphia ran 42 times. That’s just plain embarrassing. Watch the game in the second half when Philly is running on every down and see if you can find him. I couldn’t.

Give credit to the Eagles line, especially right guard Shawn Andrews and right tackle Jon Runyan. They rolled that side of Dallas’ defense. The Cowboys inside backers are probably still trying to dodge Andrews in their sleep. He’s big, he’s fast and can hit moving targets. He’s probably the best guard in the NFC right now.

The Eagles moved way up in the ‘04 draft to acquire him. I heard rumors at the time that the Eagles were worried the Cowboys would take him and moved up to make sure they didn’t. I doubt the stories are true, since Andrews was selected six spots ahead of the Cowboys’ pick. Nevertheles, Philly got itself a good one. He’s one guy who earned his Pro Bowl berth. Ask Bradie James and Akin Ayodele what they think.

Ho, Ho, Horrible: Eagles 23, Cowboys 7

Notes from Texas Stadium

I saw some interesting tactical moves on Dallas’ part, but they were moot, because:

1. A Cowboys team that had run all year could muster only 82 against a defense that was surrending 150 a game of late.

2. A rush defense that had been stout all year was gashed for 204 yards by an Eagles line that has found the running mojo.

We don’t need to take it much further. The Eagles’ grunts whipped Dallas’ grunts. Play calling, adjustments, substitutions are meaningless when you’re being outhit up front. Marion Barber got three shots from the one to tie the game at seven and failed. Play calling? Nah. There’s nothing elaborate about goalline dives. You hit or you’re outhit.

I’ll have to look at the tape, because I’m curious to see it, but the Eagles based a lot of their actions on cutback runs to the outside. The Dallas DEs, who still can’t rush, yesterday couldn’t hold their gaps. Chris Canty and Marcus Spears were turned inside all day. The outside backers didn’t far much better, and this included Demarcus Ware.

This reminded me of the blowout loss at Green Bay in ‘97, where the Packers finally ended their losing streak to the Triplets-led Cowboys. Mike Holmgren found an edge running Dorsey Levens on cutbacks and Levens ground up the Cowboys line. The QB coach for Holmgren that day was a guy named Andy Reid. Reid beat a different defense yesterday, but the game plan had the same effect.

And make no mistake, the Eagles came prepared to run. They spread the field to keep Dallas in five and six man fronts and then hammered inside. They split their tight ends wide on first down, pulling the strongside Dallas backers into space, put a fullback on that stretched side and then ran off tackle at the bubble. When Dallas tried adjusting to that, Brian Westbrook rans counters to the backside. It was a beautiful game plan, if you were rooting for the Eagles.

Even with that, the Cowboys faltered in the first half because they had no rush whatsoever when Philly was pushed into third and long. Jeff Garcia got happy feet and rushed a pass that Anthony Henry intercepted, but he wasn’t even rushed on that play. Do the Cowboys need to put new circuit breakers into Chris Canty, Marcus Spears and Jay Ratliff (where’s he gone after his fast start) or will more pass rushing ammunition need to be signed or drafted? That’s as big a question today as the free safety position.

Notes:

– The Cowboys need to work hard on their blitzing this offseason. They didn’t blitz that often yesterday, but when you rush six and seven as often as Dallas does, and get nobody near the QB, something’s wrong;

– Seeing the secondary made for some nervous moments. On L.J. Smith’s long catch you could see the field open up for him. Later in the second half the Eagles went to an empty backfield and matched up Reggie Brown on Roy Williams. There was nobody behind him. I got a sinking feeling waiting for the snap because I knew what the Eagles were going to try. Fortuantely, Williams got a hard jam on the receiver and caused an incompletion. That one could have been ugly.

– You’ll notice I haven’t mentioned the offense. Why? When the line can’t get a push, everything falls apart. The Eagles were able to play cover two all day and keep Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens under wraps because they knew they could handle Dallas’ run with seven men. Jason Witten got some good stats, but you can’t beat a team with a tight end alone.

When Tony Romo did float free and make a great throw, T.O. dropped the ball. And Romo has his own errors and review. He badly missed a go route to Owens early in the fourth quarter, when the game was still 16-7 and Dallas was driving. Owens was open but the pass was so far inside Brian Dawkins looked like the intended receiver.

– Bill Parcells took the loss on himself, with cause. I think he misread his team this week. They were flat against the Saints and Parcells stroked them the following week. They responded with a much better effort against Atlanta and he rewarded them with extra days off. They proved they’re not mature enough for that much praise; most of them looked like they never came back from the break. He’s giving them love at his press conferences but you wonder what the tempo and tone of practice will be this week.

– Say hello to the five seed. I can’t see the Eagles losing at home to Atlanta, who could have nothing to play for when they take the field. Barring a Falcons upset, the Cowboys will go to Seattle in the wild card round.

– If the Eagles continue running like this, they’re going to be very dangerous in the playoffs. The Saints run defense isn’t special and the Bears line has come down to earth after Tommie Harris got hurt and Tank Johnson went thug.

Eagles @ Cowboys — 2nd Half Thread

Well, the defensive backfield has gotten exposed once again, and the front line still cannot get any pressure on an opposing QB. In fact, the Eagles offensive line is dominating the Cowboys front 7.

The only consolation is that Romo has been a better 2nd half player, but that may not help unless the defensve can stop the Eagles offense.

Eagles @ Cowboys — 1st Half Thread

The Cowboys win and they get the NFC East title and inside track to the 3rd seed.

With all that happened in the first game in Philadelphia, with 5 turnovers and numerous sacks on Drew Bledsoe, the Cowboys still had a chance to tie the game towards the end of regulation.

Let’s hope the players remember that and exact revenge on the Eagles!

Merry Christmas Bloggers!

And Happy Holidays to our non-Christian readers.

May the Cowboys give us all a gift this afternoon and not a lump of coal.

I’m off to Texas Stadium to watch the good team in person. Raul will keep the threads moving.

Back at it Tuesday.

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