Preview — Lions @ Cowboys
Posted: December 29, 2006 @ 6:37 pm
The Cowboys defense faces the complement to the Atlanta challenge. You’ll recall that two weeks ago Dallas played Atlanta’s #1 ranked running game and 32nd ranked passing game. The game plan called for eight men in the box. The Cowboys gambled that they could contain the Atlanta running attack and not sustain severe damage from the deep Falcons passes on their single coverage.
For the most part, the plan worked. Michael Vick picked on sore kneed Anthony Henry, but Dallas prevented the Falcons backs and Vick from running amok. The Cowboys stopped Atlanta in the final 25 minutes of the game and won 38-28.
This week, Detroit presents the other extreme. They bring a highly rated passing game, 7th overall, that compensates for the worst running attack in football.
When Detroit Has the Ball
How bad is the NFL’s worst running attack? The Lions have averaged just 44 yards rushing per game the past five weeks. They run on just 37% of their downs. The Lions are having extreme growing pains implementing Mike Martz’ wide open West Coast Offense (the real, Don Coryell/Ernie Zampese/Norv Turner package). Martz still runs his wide open schemes, which rely on three and four receiver sets to spread the field. He eschews caution, choosing to go with five and seven step timing routes down the field. You see very little activity from tight ends, when the system is running smootly.
Unfortunately, from Detroit’s perspective, they lack the personnel to make it hum. Martz has a blue chip WR in former Texas Longhorn Roy Williams, who provides the big play threat. He has a big, possession type receiver in Mike Furrey, who works the sidelines and intermediate middle. He has a steady QB in Jon Kitna.
But that’s about it, as Austin Powers would say. The Lions lost RB Kevin Jones a few weeks ago and rely on backup Arlen Harris. He’s game, but the Lions face an undermanned line, in addition to their understaffed receiving corps. The Lions sport a good LT in Jeff Backus and a decent center in Dominic Raiola. However, they’ve lost starting guards Ross Verba and Damien Woody to injury. (They were not pleased with the bit ticket signing Woody’s poor conditioning anyway and rumor has him leaving this offseason.)
As a result, Cowboys washout Stephen Peterman starts for Detroit at right guard. What’s more, they’ve had to force feed rookie Jonathan Scott the right tackle position. Add Martz’s refusal to rein in his freewheeling game plans and you have a line that’s surrendered an NFC high 58 sacks. They’ve given up 25 in the last five games. For comparison’s sake, when Dallas’ line collapsed last December, it allowed an average of four sacks per game. Detroit’s protection is one degree worse.
This represents a good news/bad news propostion for the Cowboys defenders. the good news is that Detroit defines one-dimesionality. The Cowboys can focus nearly all their attention on the passing game. The bad news, as everyone knows, is that Dallas’ weakness is stopping the pass.
How might they approach Martz’ unit? Will they go to a nickel package straight away and put extra defenders in the secondary, counting on a front six to handle the run? The Cowboys have not done this in either of the past two seasons, preferring to stick to a base 3-4 regardless of what the opposition is doing on first downs. This worked against the Colts, but was exposed in the Eagles and Saints losses.
Parcells mentioned in today’s presser that his defense could disrupt Detroit by improving the rush and by working harder at disrputing the timing routes the Lions wideouts run. This suggest more man coverage, with emphasis on jamming the receivers at the line. I would look for more of the 4-2-5 look on early downs, until Detroit demonstrated an ability to beat it with runs.
I would also look for lots more of Demarcus Ware on the left side, where he matches up against the rookie Scott. I would look for overloads and stunts from Kitna’s right, hoping to work over Scott and Peterman.
The key will be containing Williams. The Lions have a league low four plays of 40 yards or more. Williams has three of them. You know he’ll be matched up against Henry, who’s been gutting out his inflamed knee. Dallas should give him safety help over the top. The Cowboys have used Jacques Reeves as their nickel safety on that side of the field lately and I see him getting more reps to aid Henry over the top.
When Dallas has the Ball
Dallas faces yet another Tampa-2 team, after playing Indianapolis and Tampa Bay in recent weeks. New Lions HC Rod Marinelli coached the Bucs D-line and brought the scheme with him. As with his offense, he lacks the overall talent to make the scheme flourish.
The Lions don’t have a strength. They have trouble stopping the run and pass in equal measure. Their starting defensive line has just nine sacks to its credit. DT Cory Redding (GM Matt Millen loves U. of Texas players) has seven of them. The Lions rank 29th in sacks. Their 3rd down pass efficiency is almost as bad as Dallas’. This means the Lions can’t get off the field. They rank 31st in time of possession.
With Terrell Owens struggling with bad hands and bad routes, look for a repeat of the Tampa Bay game plan. Expect a ball control mix of runs and short throws, to help establish Tony Romo in an early rhythm. He was rusty in the Cowboys big losses to New Orleans and Philadelphia, missing open receivers down the field. The Lions linebacking corps is beaten up, so look for another busy week for Jason Witten.
Overall
The Lions have continued to play hard for their new coach. They’re undermanned but Dallas could have some frustrating early moments. The key to a successful game will be getting some early Detroit punts. The Saints and Eagles both started fast and Atlanta got rolling when Romo gave them an early interception to work with. The young Cowboys defense relies on emotion and getting some early plays could boost it sky high.
Even if the Lions move, they shouldn’t be able to roll down the field. Their poor running game kills them in the red zone, because they lack the muscle to push into the end zone. Romo mentioned that Dallas has a strong week of practice and Parcells seconded that today. “We weren’t perfect, but we were good,” he said.
Against Detroit, good should be good enough.
Dallas 27, Detroit 21
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Great pre-view Raf!
I think we’ll score one more TD and the score will be:
Dallas - 34
Detroit - 21
Go Cowboys!
Raf
Nice write up.
I do think that we will see some actual 4-3 from our Defense on this week. not just constant Nickel Packs..
Why?
Disrupting a route is much easier for Carpenter/james/Akin than it would be for Reeves, or whoever the nickel saftey would be.
Parcells has been hinting at something all week. I don’t think it is more 4-2 nickel…
What about something really exotic? Like that 2-4-5 the Patriots opened with against the Eagles in the Super Bowl?? Nahhh…
To all, incase you don’t know what to ‘hope for’ this weekend: Five teams have qualified for posteason play: I won’t know which game to watch. Eagles/Falcons or Lions/Cowboys. Oh!!! I have DirecTV and NFL Sunday Ticket, so both I guess.
1. Chicago: 13-2, homefield advantage; NFC North champion
2. New Orleans: 10-5, first round bye; NFC South champion
3. Philadelphia: 9-6, current NFC East leader (swept Dallas in head-to-head tiebreaker)
4. Seattle: 8-7, NFC West champion
5. Dallas: 9-6, Wild Card (no other team outside of DAL or PHI can finish as the #5 seed)
Playing for the sixth and final seed this week:
6. N.Y. Giants, Green Bay, Carolina, St. Louis and Atlanta: tied at 8-7 (Click here for NFL tiebreaking procedures)
Four of the five teams involved in the tie for the sixth spot are from different divisions. The only division with two teams is the NFC South with Atlanta and Carolina.
Atlanta will need a win or a tie and other favorable Week 17 outcomes to qualify for postseason play. Here’s how it shakes out for the Falcons:
Two scenarios get the Falcons into the NFC playoffs —
1) ATL win + CAR loss or tie (at New Orleans - Sun.) + GB loss or tie (at Chicago - Sun.) + NYG loss or tie (at Washington - Sat.)
PHI or DAL (#5 seed), ATL 8-8 (#6 seed on strength of victory tiebreaker over STL), STL 8-8, CAR 7-9/7-8-1, GB 7-9/7-8-1, NYG 7-9/7-8-1
2) ATL tie + CAR loss + GB loss + NYG loss + STL loss (at Minnesota - Sun.)
PHI or DAL (#5 seed), ATL 7-8-1 (#6 seed), CAR 7-9, GB, 7-9, NYG 7-9, STL 7-9
Here are the complete NFC Playoff scenarios going into Week 17:
NFC EAST
Dallas has clinched a playoff berth.
Dallas clinches East Division:
1) DAL win + PHI loss or tie
2) DAL tie + PHI loss
Philadelphia has clinched a playoff berth.
Philadelphia clinches East Division:
1) PHI win
2) DAL loss
3) PHI tie + DAL tie
NY Giants clinch a playoff berth:
1) NYG win + NYG clinch strength of victory tiebreaker over GB
2) NYG win + GB loss or tie
3) NYG tie + GB loss or tie + STL loss or tie + ATL loss or tie + CAR loss or tie
4) GB loss + STL loss + ATL loss + CAR loss
NFC NORTH
Chicago has clinched homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs.
Green Bay clinches a playoff berth:
1) GB win + NYG win + GB clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over NYG
2) GB win + NYG loss or tie + STL loss or tie
3) GB win + NYG loss or tie + CAR win
4) GB win + NYG loss or tie + ATL win
5) GB tie + NYG loss + STL loss + ATL loss or tie + CAR loss or tie
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans has clinched a first round bye.
Carolina clinches a playoff berth:
1) CAR win + NYG loss or tie + GB loss or tie
2) CAR tie + NYG loss + GB loss + STL loss or tie + ATL loss or tie
Atlanta clinches a playoff berth:
1) ATL win + CAR loss or tie + GB loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
2) ATL tie + CAR loss + GB loss + NYG loss + STL loss
NFC WEST
Seattle has clinched NFC West title
St. Louis clinches a playoff berth:
1) STL win + NYG loss or tie + CAR loss or tie + ATL loss or tie
2) STL tie + NYG loss + CAR loss + ATL loss + GB loss
Detroit, Arizona, Tampa Bay, Washington, Minnesota and San Francisco have been eliminated from NFC playoff contention
Credit, the above was stolen from the Falcon’s webb page.
Does Owens ever put it together that his drops have stopped drives, thereby, giving him less chances, at actually catching something, during a game. Or, is it always other people’s fault?
Thank you for the preview Rafael.
Hopefully we can get after the QB allot against there struggling Oline and gain a bit of confidence on D for the playoffs.
Hey does anyone know what games have been picked to be shown nationally yet. I heard there was a double double-header or something?
If Dallas doesn’t beat these putzes they should give away their playoff berth.
Detroit 27
Dallas 13
We get no sacks, and they run rampant on us.
How about siting Henry and starting Glenn?
Or if the game is won or lost, resting him in the second half………
Cowboyman good call on TOs drops costing him not just those passes but ones sure to follow on sustained drives.I just dont see us using the 4-3 any more than we already have. No since tippin our hand before the playoffs. I think we will do small amounts of several things to get a feel of things that might work for us. Detroit has a good passing attack but lack of talent and running game that should let us get away with experimenting ways to generate a rush. Are we the late or early game.
Larry, when Tony Robbins hangs it up you should apply for his job.
The Cowboys have a great chance to get the confidence mojo going again. Lets hope they bring their A game so they can go into the playoffs with a mental edge.
Could Reeves make the transition to FS? There is a huge multiplier effect to plugging that hole. It would allow Williams to play closer to the line; allow T-New and Henry to be a bit more aggressive.
Similar but in reverse to the impact of losing Ellis (made our def that much more predictable).
Other than Romo’s hot patch we have been a model of week to week inconsistency:
L W B W L W L W W W W L W L W L ?
This would mean a W against Detroit and a first round exit in the playoffs.
I hope we can knock off Seattle. Should be possible, they’ve been playing even worse than us. Be good to get this team some meaningful playoff experience to build on to make a strong run next year. And if we can use the 2 wins to get on a run, who knows what can happen….
Luke,
You’re correct, this is a double network doubleheader weekend. Go here:
http://gribblenation.net/nflmaps/
Click on the links for week 17 for each network and time slot. Most of the nation will be watching Dallas-Detroit early, and Philadelphia-Atlanta late, on Fox; and Indianapolis-Miami late on CBS. The early CBS game is not a national game, so it will depend on where you live as to what you watch.
By the way, Rafael, nice write up. Your pregame analyses have always been very sober, and a refreshing counterpoint to the fans here who predict a blowout victory every game.
One can hope for the best but expect the worst. sadly that is where I am with the Boys now.
kinda
Thats a great site. It looks like fox is using the old TV adage “when in doubt put on the Cowboys”
keystonetom,
I guess Fox is thinking the Eagles have a decent chance of losing, otherwise why show the Dallas game? Personally, I would have given the St. Louis-Minnesota and especially the Carolina-New Orleans game more of an audience, but Fox could be thinking the Giants will win tonight, making those games moot.
I think Fox is thinking Cowboys=Ratings=dollars. But then again Fox may be thinking what Im thinking, F__k the Eagles.
I noticed the stl-minn game is on in the midwest only. They’re betting that most of the rest of the country want to watch the ‘boys.
I hope the falcons give the iggles all they can handle.I hate it here in Pa. when their fans get so f***ing cocky.
Im wondering if the Eagles are going to have a let down after playing us.(a common acurance) Im wondering if Falcons have any pride and are going to fight hard not to have a losing record or are they going to just mail it in. If they step up they can beat eagles. Vick can feast on pressure if they get sloppy. They can run the ball well. Do we want them to win or do the matchups we get with eagles winning favor us.
Keystone I really dont know how you can live there. Eventually I would get beat up by a mob.
They’re a bunch of babies. They couldn’t beat anyone up. They never have a realistic view of their team. Every year they are gonna win it all no matter who’s on the team or who’s coaching.
What ever happened to Junior Glymph?
Can he rush the passer?
CowboyMan, I equate TO to a woman. A woman is a man without any reason or accountability.
keystonetom, you’re right about the Philly fans, I used to live on the “least coast”. I never had a problem walking into that dump, the Vet, wearing full Cowboys regalia.
You intimidate them first, and they back right down. Many of them are like the classic school yard bully that pick on the weak. When they get punched in the face, the don’t expect it, nor no what to do.
keystone Tom, I am also located in Eastern PA and have to hear every morning over coffee at work the normal Eagles garbage. 4 weeks ago they were all wanted Andy R fired and Feely to be QB not Garcia. I explained to them Reid is a good coach and Garcia would be ok in his offense. All they did was moan and groan. Now Reid is coach of the year and they want to cut McNabb and make Garcia the starter.
I take my daughter to 2 games a year at the Linc. She is a big eagles fan. I know I am a terrible father. Well the fans there are the absolute worse bunch of drunkin slobs in the NFL. I complained to all the Eagles fans that all the fans did was go back and forth for beer and the bathrooms. I think my dauhter and I were the only fans in our section that actually watch the game. Everyone else, in their eagle crap, got drunk and booed.
After the Tennessee game they were selling Fire Reid shirts in the parking lots.
Yeah, I live in DC, and fans on this coast are the most childish and ignorant there are. I thought the arrogance of 49ers fans in 1990’s was the worst, until I moved here. Eagles fans are the absolute worst in their immaturity and delusions, although some are less worse than others.
Although I need to mention the Steelers fans I know, and I know a bunch, are a decent group of people. They dearly love their Stillers, but are knowledgeable of the league as a whole and respectful of other teams and their history. Funny how Steelers fans are gracious, and they have five rings, and Eagles fans behave tantrum-prone children, and they have none. Nice how karma works, huh?
Ravens fans are a good group, too. Didn’t mean to toss everyone under the bus.
I do not understand why we ever play the Cover 2. It seems to me that we do not have the players to do it effectively. You need good cover Safetys and a good pass rush. Both are our weakness’s right now. I’d like to see much more straight mono on mono while attempting to send an extra guy to rush the QB. Id send a different guy from a different area each time. To me, it seems like the best bet, but what do I know.
After the season, we’ll need to improve our pass rush and our FS play.
I think too much blame is placed on Zimmer.
Far too much blame. If Parcells did not like the scheme’s or defensive game plan, he would have done something about it. There is far more to this problem than the game plan.
Zimmer needs to be accountable but he should not be taking all the blame.
BUSHPILOT,
MAKE SURE YOUR FUTURE WIFE TO BE NOT SEE YOUR QUOTE #23
HAPPY NEW YEAR.
SQUID
What can I say? The more confident I am the worse this team plays!
So I’ll go against the grain, and hope I’m wrong.
I know one thing-Almost every time we hear a team has some weakness, they always do great against in that area.
Ross Verba, who couldn’t make our team is out, and his backup is in. But I bet he gives up zero sacks, whoever he is…..
They can’t run? Watch them get 100+ yards on us.
I’m only 50% tongue/cheek here.
Toast, Happy New Year!! I tell my girlfriend that all the time, she just laughs. I guess I’m happy to have one with a good sense of humor.
donny,
I agree that I don’t like the cover2 either. It seems like there are automatic soft spots built into the scheme. I like man-to-man in football and basketball. If you have the better team and athletes, prove it and win the individual battles. Tampa was great using it a few years ago, but they also had a serious pass rush.
keystonetom,
What happened to Glymph is that Bobby Carpenter started playing better about the time Junior was re-upped. Parcells said of B.C. “he’s coming along” this week and will get more playing time. He was one of the few defensive players who had a good game last week, along with Ferguson, Henry and to lesser extents, Ware and Newman.
I think Glymph has only seen the field once since he was re-signed.
What will make Parcells stay next year? A loss in our first play-off game? Or if we almost get to the superbowl will he stay and try again next year?
Do you guys even want him to stay? And who would replace him?
boyz ,I want him to stay. I just spent the afternoon with jints fans watching the nfl network show the 91
jint SB run. There was a lot of love and respect among “bill’s guys”.That will happen here if he stays.
I agree
I think in today’s world it is not all that easy to take a team to the superbowl. I also think he took over a mess in Dallas and that takes time to fix. I am not at all unhappy with his job here. I do wish this team in particular would play like they really, really want to win every game and for whatever reason they don’t. I wonder if they didn’t take the Saints as serious as they should have and I have no answer for what happened last week with Philly…but maybe once they get into the playoffs they will play like we all want!
Toast, you beat me to the good advice to Bushpilot.
boyz4ever: I think you’re both right and wrong. Very good teams like NE have a great chance of course. On the other hand, there’s the Steeler’s of last year. Pit was up and down team all year, like the ‘06 Cowboys. With parity, any team making the playoffs seems to have a much better chance (than in the dynasty days), no matter their regular season record, to win it all.