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Here’s a Twist — Dallas Interested In Michael Turner

The San Diego Union Tribune says the Cowboys are one of four teams interested in Chargers backup RB Michael Turner.

What’s more, each of Dallas, the Jets, the Bills and the Titans,

“appear willing to part at least with a first-round draft pick, but sources indicated the Chargers are still seeking two picks – in the first and third rounds.”

Charger’s GM A.J. Smith added,

“A few of them absolutely have strong interest. Some might be lukewarm, some are on the outside just getting into it,” Smith said. “Where it goes from there, I don’t know. No question, it’s legit.

The Buffalo News confirms the Bills have spoken to the Chargers about Turner.

Here’s the view from Titans country.

Why would teams be so willing to trade a number one for an NFL backup, though admittedly a talented one? Consider this stat:

Over the last two seasons, only two backs selected in the first three rounds - Indianapolis’ Joseph Addai in 2006 and Tampa Bay’s Cadillac Williams in ‘05 - topped 1,000 yards as rookies.

This year’s running backs class looks especially thin. Adrian Peterson shines, but there are questions about second-rated Marshawn Lynch. And there’s a big dropoff after Lynch. With Michael Bush having ankle surgery recently, there may not be a back selected in the second round.

Are we seeing the shadow of Wade Phillips here? His defense had to face Turner every day in practice, so he would know how good Turner really is.

Does this also mean Dallas is shopping, or would shop their current backs should they invest in Turner?

And the draft is still 28 days away.

Turner for a 1st? ‘Skins Speed Crazy? and other Draft Rumors

– The Chargers may finagle a top pick out of somebody for backup RB Michael Turner. The North County Times (California) claims the Packers and Bills among other teams, have shown strong interest in Turner.

If you think this is crazy, remember:

1. Atlanta traded backup Matt Schaub for mid-first round points;

2. Buffalo traded a number one for J.P. Losman three years ago;

3. The Packers are getting ripped by their local press for not obtaining a skill position player at either WR or RB to complement Brett Favre;

Pressure will make you do nutty things. You can almost see Chargers’ GM A.J. Smith rubbing his hands in anticipation of a trade partner’s stupid attack. Landing a mid-first rounder for a one-year, rented backup would rank as coup. This would make people forget the Marty Schottenheimer fiasco in a hurry.

– Football Nostradamus, come on down!

One of our readers posted in a thread several days ago that a little birdie told him the Redskins were in love with Ted Ginn Jr.

Today’s Washington Times reports that Washington will host Adrian Peterson, Joe Thomas and Brady Quinn. No surprises there. All are rated as top five to six picks and Washington picks sixth, for the moment anyway.

The same story notes that Washington’s brass and QB Jason Campbell will travel to Colombus to work out Ginn, who rates as a mid to late first rounder in all recent mocks.

This only makes sense if the Redskins have willing trade-down partners. But then, a lot of Washington’s personnel moves don’t make sense.

Nelson Still A Draft Target

The Cowboys signed FS Ken Hamlin last week, but remain interested in Florida FS Reggie Nelson as a long term solution to their deep secondary hole.

The Green Bay Post Gazette says the Cowboys are one of six teams who will host Nelson for a pre-draft interview. The others are Tampa Bay (4th) Atlanta (8th) Green Bay (16th) Cincinnati (18th) and San Diego (28th).

Nelson has not been rated as a top ten player, so Tampa Bay’s interest may depend on their moving down or more likely moving up from the early 2nd into the late 1st, should Nelson fall. Atlanta is linked with LSU’s Laron Landry in many mocks and may be investigating Nelson should they decide to pick another position in the 8th spot. Green Bay and Cincinnati have long been Nelson targets, along with Jacksonville at pick 17.

Cowboys Pick Chart

The NFL awarded supplemental draft picks, finalizing the draft order.

Here are Dallas’ picks this year, by round and number. Note that teams with similar records rotate picks within their record grouping. In other words, Dallas will cycle through the 9-7 team group:

Round 1 — 22nd overall;
Round 2 — 21st in round, 53rd overall;
Round 3 — 24th in round; 87th overall*;
Round 4 — 23rd in round; 122nd overall;
Round 5 — 22nd in round; 152nd overall;
Round 6 — 21st in round; 195th overall;
– 26th in round, 200th overall from Jets;

Round 7 — 2nd in rd, 212th from Detroit through Jets;
– 24th in round, 234th overall;
– 27th in round, 237th overall, from Saints;

*Cincinnati forfeits this year’s 3rd round pick because it selected Ahmad Brooks in last year’s supplemental draft. The Cowboys 3rd round pick is therefore one spot higher overall that it would be.

Line Slotting

The Houston Chronicle quotes Texans HC Gary Kubiak saying the team may draft an offensive tackle with the 10th overall pick. Levi Brown, come on down?

David Carr’s back, though no longer in Houston, applauds the sentiment. So does Matt Schaub’s.

Six teams picking between 28 and 52 have scheduled visits with Tennessee OG Arron Sears. The Pats (28th) Ravens (29th) Bucs (35th) Vikings (41st) Rams (52nd) and Redskins (no 2nd round pick) clearly like him. Washington may consider Sears as an option at pick 31, should the proposed deal with Chicago come off. They need a guard to replace Derrick Dockery.

Sears is rated in the same neighborhood as Ben Grubbs and Justin Blalock. Look for all three to go in this very late first to mid second round range.

The Romo Rule?

NFL owners and general managers are meeting this week to vote on rulebook changes for next year. Among their decisions thus far have been the decision to make instant replay review “permanent” (they’d previously been voting on it year-by-year) and not to allow defensive players to be linked via helmet microphones to the sidelines in the same way that quarterbacks are.

The most interesting rule for Cowboys Nation, however, was reported by ESPN’s Chris Mortensen this evening on Sportscenter– the Romo Rule, due to be voted on tomorrow. So named because of Tony’s botched hold in the Seattle playoff game, this rule would adjust the way that footballs are prepared before being used in place-kicking situations. As most of us know and have anguished over, the NFL currently uses brand-new “K Balls” for place-kicks, making them slicker and more difficult to handle. For us, it’s a bit of shutting the barn door after the cow’s already gone, but what can you do?

If this rule passes, it would be another in a long line of Cowboys-focused rules in the NFL’s book. Past rules unofficially named after Cowboys are the Emmit Smith Rule (no removing your helmet on the field of play), the Michael Irvin Rule (harsher offensive pass intereference enforcement), the Deion Sanders Rule (no excessive celebration), and the Roy Williams Rule (no horse collar tackling).

In one way or another, America’s Team is constantly making its presence known around the league.

Top Ten Draft Intrigue

April looms and already the rumors are intensifying.

The one hard story to relay has Washington offering the 6th overall pick for Chicago’s 31st and disgruntled LB Lance Briggs. If Washington can convince the Bears, their defense takes a big step forward. All three staring linebackers are 30 or older and MLB Lemar Marshall, a runt at 232 lbs. looked at times last year like he was playing alone.

DC Gregg Williams has never compensated for Antonio Pierce’s defection to the Giants. Last year’s top rookie Rocky McIntosh had a quiet ‘06 so Briggs would instantly be the team’s top backer.

From a trade perspective, the move skews to Washington; they convert the 6th pick into two first rounders, the 31st, of course and the 15th. (The difference from 6 to 31st is 1000 points, which means the Redskins value Briggs as the Falcons valued Matt Schaub, as a mid-1st rounder.) The Redskins would, in effect, get a two for one.

Early rumors from Chicago suggest the Bears, if they took the deal, would look for a DT like Amoki Okoye to pair with Tommie Harris. Chicago’s run defense dropped considerably after Harris suffered a serious groin injury and missed the playoffs. Indianapolis gashed the Bears’ central defense in the Super Bowl.

What’s more, the Bears look thin inside. Tank Johnson’s future remains unclear after a series of legal events and backup Ian Scott left in free agency. The Bears just signed former 49er Anthony Adams but have no depth at tackle.

Correction: Scott has not signed with a new team and could re-join the Bears soon. I regret the mistake.

The Bears might also consider Laron Landry, who could pair with Brian Urlacher to make Chicago’s central pass defense airtight.

I have no idea if this trade will happen, but I can see logic from both sides for its consummation.

NFL.com’s Pat Kirwan’s latest mock draft has two trades in the top five. If the Bears and Redskins made their deal, five of the top six picks could trade hands.

At this rate, it will be a crazy draft Saturday.

Eagles Deal for Spikes

The Philadelphia Eagles team website is reporting that the Eagles have reached agreement on a deal with the Buffalo Bills that will send linebacker Takeo Spikes to Philadelphia. The Eagles will also receive backup quarterback Kelly Holcomb (he of the one-time 400+ yard passing playoff game), and will send DT Darwin Walker and a conditional late round pick to Buffalo.

On the surface, the deal seems like a clear win for the linebacker-starved Eagles. Spikes is 3 years and one Achilles injury removed from being one of the NFL’s top 5 outside linebackers, and instantly becomes the best strongside ‘backer on the Eagles’ squad, and probably the best LB on their entire team.

Last season he made significant strides in his recovery from the Achilles injury and, though he may have lost a step due to the combination of age (he’s 31) and a tough stint of rehab, he certainly still has the physical talent to contribute at a high level in the league. How quickly he picks up DC Jim Johnson’s complicated defensive scheme is another issue, but as a player with both Marvin Lewis and Gregg Williams on his resume, one would think he’s capable of learning pretty much any playbook out there.

This move may also affect what the Eagles do with their first round pick. If Andy Reid’s thinking DB, then this trade won’t change anything, but if he is not confident in new signee DT Monte Raegor, he could look to spend a first or second rounder on the defensive line.

Divisional Doings

– The Redskins have signed former Dallas OT Jason Fabini to fill a backup role.

– The Bills could trade LB Takeo Spikes any day now, according to the Buffalo News. The Eagles and Giants have made inquiries about Spikes and one could be his next team.

Thank You Football Santa!

… I’ve been very, very good this year.

After 19 seasons of bleeding ears, we can turn the volume up a little on Monday nights.

Joe Theismann has been dismissed as a MNF analyst. His replacement has not been named, but speculation centers on Ron Jaworski, Emmitt Smith and (drumroll please) … Bill Parcells!

Oh please, football Santa, if I’m really good, will you pair Parcells with that prefabricated, over-inflated Kornheiser?! That’s JUST the type of Cosell/Meredith odd couple that could make the show fun again.

Can you imagine what Parcells would say the first time Kornheiser makes his one of his inevitable Broadway musical references? Talk about reprising Oscar and Felix.

To quote that TV sage Peggy Bundy, “the mind wobbles.”

Bust Factors — Offense

Are you a risk taker, or are you a draft conservative?

If I told you an offensive tackle and a wide receiver were available at pick 22 and that Dallas needed help at both, which would you choose?

If you’re the stable, Jim Finks build-through-the-lines type, you would select a tackle.

If you’re really daring, you would go for the flash.

We’ve examined offensive positions and determined that QBs, WRs, RBs and OTs comprise most of the first rounders selected.

What we have not shown are the relative risks associated with each position. Here’s an enriched chart:

I’m setting the bar at a modest level. All you need to do to qualify as a hit is become a consistent starter. We can argue till we’re breathless about value or quality, but in this survey a Rex Grossman qualifies as a hit. He’s become a starter for his team. We may have to reevaluate him in a year or two but for now, that’s the standard I’ll use with quarterbacks and all the big positions.

Note, however that I said consistent. You have to remain a starter. Let’s use receiver Ashley Lelie as a test case. Here are his starts over his five year career — 1, 13, 16, 13, 10. Here’s a guy who got a chance to be Denver’s #2. He’s never endured a major injury, so this line shows his teams no longer consider him a starter. He goes in my book as a bust.

For better or for worse, guys who looked promising but don’t start because of injuries are also listed as busts. Guys like David Boston, who just wasted their talent, would get double bust marks if I could award them.

Quarterbacks — I list eight busts: Jim Druckenmiller, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Patrick Ramsey, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller and Aaron Rogers. Rogers and Boller could change the math here, but time is running shorter on them.

First round QBs make a surprisingly strong showing. Not all of them are superstars, but it’s a pretty solid list: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Duante Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Rex Grossman, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jason Campbell head the list.

Offensive Tackle — This is the safest position on offense. The option of moving a so-so tackle inside to guard decreases the risk. L.J. Shelton and Kenyatta Walker count as hits after moving inside. Aaron Gibson, Mike Williams and Stockar McDougle are the only busts drafted as tackles.

Running Back — Another postion with a sound track record among first rounders. Only seven of the 30 first round picks — Curtis Enis, John Avery, Ron Dayne, Trung Canidate, William Green, T.J. Duckett and Chris Perry qualify as washouts.

Wide Receiver — The most drafted offensive position is also the riskiest; more than half of the 41 first round receivers the past decade fail to make the grade.

Sift through this top-tier rubble: Yatil Green, Reidel Anthony, Rae Carruth, Marcus Nash, Troy Edwards, David Boston, Peter Warrick, Travis Taylor, Sylvester Morris, R.J. Soward, David Terrell, Rod Gardner, Freddie Mitchell, Charles Rogers, Ashley Lelie, Bryant Johnson, Michael Clayton, Rashaun Woods, Mike Williams, Roddy White, Troy Williamson.

Now, consider the four names likely to be available around Dallas’ pick — Ted Ginn Jr., Dwayne Bowe, Dwayne Jarrett and Robert Meachem. Odds are two of them will bust. Can you tell me which ones? Better yet, can you tell Jerry Jones and Jeff Ireland?

Who’s Your Buddy?

Sports Illustrated’s Paul Zimmerman takes his share of shots from our readers. Many take exception to his weekly player rankings and invariably claims of anti-Cowboys, or East Coast bias come up.

It’s good to know who your friends are. Zimmerman has no love for Jerry Jones and had a well documented feud with Tex Schramm back in the day, but there has been no more consistent champion of old Cowboys among Hall of Fame voters than Z.

In this week’s post, he makes his 43rd case for Cliff Harris as a Hall of Famer, and pledges to continue grinding on his behalf.

Who Rises and Falls on Defense?

We turn to the defense, to learn which positions are upgraded on draft day and which are overlooked, at least in the first round:

Conclusions:

1. There are only three marquee positions on defense — cornerbacks, pass rushers and monster defensive tackles who can stuff the run and rush inside.

2. It stands to reason that if wide receiver is the top offensive position by number, then finding guys who can stop receivers is equally valued. In this day of increasing spread offenses at the pro level, you need three good corners at minimum to stack up.

From the Cowboys’ perspective, corner looks like a real option in the 22nd spot. Anthony Henry is 30 and will turn 31 during the season. Terence Newman is 28 and will turn 29 in September (he was a 25 year old rookie) and Aaron Glenn will be 35 on opening day.

Age is as much a concern here as it is at wide receiver. Keep Darrelle Revis and Aaron Ross at the top of your 1st round options charts.

3. Pass rushers are an even bigger priority for teams, even though the position falls second here. There are six 3-4 outside linebackers — Greg Ellis, Julian Peterson, Demarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Kamerion Wimbley and Manny Lawson — whose top job is rushing. You could add them to the defensive end category.

4. Free safeties fall. Only four have been drafted in the first round and only Sean Taylor has cracked the top ten the past decade. Laron Landry will likely be the second. This probably explains Reggie Nelson’s sudden fade. Unless you’re seen as something special, as Landry clearly is, teams grade you and draft you in the second round.

5. Nose tackles also get no love. Only four first rounders drafted in the past decade. There’s no Casey Hampton or Vince Wilfork in this year’s draft. Don’t look for nose tackle help this high.

6. Inside linebacker? Not gonna happen. Only TWO 3-4 inside backers have been taken in the first round. James Farrior is one and Bobby Carpenter is rated as the other.

The Cowboys follow these defensive templates to the letter. The team has drafted defense with every first rounder since ‘98. Look at this breakdown:

DE/OLB — Greg Ellis, Ebenezer Ekuban, Demarcus Ware, Marcus Spears, Bobby Carpenter (he also plays outside).
CB — Terence Newman,
SS — Roy Williams

Guys who can rush., a guy who can cover and a safety they felt was exceptional at his position.

What does this tell me? That if Dallas looks for defensive help, we should expect the best cover man or the best pass rusher available to be selected.

Cowboys Sign Hamlin to A “Show Me” Deal

One year, $2.5 million.

That’s what free safety Ken Hamlin received from the Cowboys today.

They get an upgrade. Whether they get the good 2005 version of Ken Hamlin or the inferior 2006 incarnation, they still get an improvement over the erratic play of Keith Davis and Pat Watkins.

We can read three conclusions into this deal:

1. The terms provide a strong incentive for Hamlin to perform; If he fails, or even underwhelms, he’s gone in ‘08.

2. It provides incentive for Pat Watkins. If he makes a step forwards, shows better consistency and better tracking of the ball in the air, he has the opportunity to move ahead of Hamlin and own the position.

3. It takes the pressure off Dallas to force free safety in the first two rounds, but leaves them the opportunity to select one if they see value. Recent mock drafts show Reggie Nelson slipping. Scott Wright’s and Scout’s Inc.’s Todd McShay’s latest mocks have Nelson going to Dallas at pick 22. Mel Kiper has Nelson falling a bit farther, going to New England in the 28th spot.

Friday Free For All

– Quarterback musical chairs continues, though we may be in the final round. Miami has Trent Green in its sights. If the Dolphins obtain him, Duante Culpepper might be released.

David Carr is also on the trading block. Minnesota and Oakland are apparently interested in him but will likely wait out the Texans, who want a draft pick for him. Carr counts over $5 million against the Texans cap, so interested teams know Houston will cut him if they can’t swing a deal.

If Carr were to land in Oakland, would this knock Jamarcus Russell out of the first spot?

– The same story has the Eagles and Giants bidding for Denver MLB Al Wilson, whom Denver is willing to trade. New York’s new GM cut several big names, among them Lavar Arrington, and needs linebacker help.

The Eagles pursuit of Wilson, coupled with their failed run at Ryan Fowler, tells me they’re very concerned about Jeremiah Trotter’s knees.

– Some fans here bash draft value charts. While I think some of the criticisms are apt, there’s no question that teams in fact use them. Here’s Pat Kirwan with a breakdown of how the Texans and Falcons worked out the Matt Schaub deal using charts.

– It’s gone awfully quiet on the Ken Hamlin front, though negotiations continue.

– I don’t want to re-ignite any trade-Julius rumors, but here’s proof that teams were calling Dallas about him — Chargers’ GM A.J. Smith says “there’s a lot of activity” surrounding backup RB Michael Turner, meaning he’s fielded calls from more than one club. Turner is tendered at a level that gives San Diego a 1st and a 3rd pick in compensation if he’s signed to an offer sheet and the Chargers let him go.

Smith says the price remains a one and a three, meaning he’s also been asked if he would take less in trade.

If teams are considering trading a 1st for Michael Turner, you wonder if they’re willing to meet Jerry Jones “right price?”

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