Bust Factors — Offense
Posted: March 25, 2007 @ 7:52 pm
Are you a risk taker, or are you a draft conservative?
If I told you an offensive tackle and a wide receiver were available at pick 22 and that Dallas needed help at both, which would you choose?
If you’re the stable, Jim Finks build-through-the-lines type, you would select a tackle.
If you’re really daring, you would go for the flash.
We’ve examined offensive positions and determined that QBs, WRs, RBs and OTs comprise most of the first rounders selected.
What we have not shown are the relative risks associated with each position. Here’s an enriched chart:
| Position | 1st Rd | Top 10 | Busts | Bust % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks | 27 | 15 | 8 | 30% |
| Tackles | 27 | 11 | 3 | 11% |
| Receivers | 41 | 16 | 21 | 51% |
| Running Backs | 30 | 11 | 7 | 23% |
I’m setting the bar at a modest level. All you need to do to qualify as a hit is become a consistent starter. We can argue till we’re breathless about value or quality, but in this survey a Rex Grossman qualifies as a hit. He’s become a starter for his team. We may have to reevaluate him in a year or two but for now, that’s the standard I’ll use with quarterbacks and all the big positions.
Note, however that I said consistent. You have to remain a starter. Let’s use receiver Ashley Lelie as a test case. Here are his starts over his five year career — 1, 13, 16, 13, 10. Here’s a guy who got a chance to be Denver’s #2. He’s never endured a major injury, so this line shows his teams no longer consider him a starter. He goes in my book as a bust.
For better or for worse, guys who looked promising but don’t start because of injuries are also listed as busts. Guys like David Boston, who just wasted their talent, would get double bust marks if I could award them.
Quarterbacks — I list eight busts: Jim Druckenmiller, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Patrick Ramsey, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller and Aaron Rogers. Rogers and Boller could change the math here, but time is running shorter on them.
First round QBs make a surprisingly strong showing. Not all of them are superstars, but it’s a pretty solid list: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Duante Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Rex Grossman, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jason Campbell head the list.
Offensive Tackle — This is the safest position on offense. The option of moving a so-so tackle inside to guard decreases the risk. L.J. Shelton and Kenyatta Walker count as hits after moving inside. Aaron Gibson, Mike Williams and Stockar McDougle are the only busts drafted as tackles.
Running Back — Another postion with a sound track record among first rounders. Only seven of the 30 first round picks — Curtis Enis, John Avery, Ron Dayne, Trung Canidate, William Green, T.J. Duckett and Chris Perry qualify as washouts.
Wide Receiver — The most drafted offensive position is also the riskiest; more than half of the 41 first round receivers the past decade fail to make the grade.
Sift through this top-tier rubble: Yatil Green, Reidel Anthony, Rae Carruth, Marcus Nash, Troy Edwards, David Boston, Peter Warrick, Travis Taylor, Sylvester Morris, R.J. Soward, David Terrell, Rod Gardner, Freddie Mitchell, Charles Rogers, Ashley Lelie, Bryant Johnson, Michael Clayton, Rashaun Woods, Mike Williams, Roddy White, Troy Williamson.
Now, consider the four names likely to be available around Dallas’ pick — Ted Ginn Jr., Dwayne Bowe, Dwayne Jarrett and Robert Meachem. Odds are two of them will bust. Can you tell me which ones? Better yet, can you tell Jerry Jones and Jeff Ireland?
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I don’t really see how Rogers is a bust, he’s been stuck behind Favre ever since he’s been in the league. Favre played pretty well last year so Rogers has never really had a chance. Therefore I just couldn’t label him a bust.
Shouldn’t Pennington, Vick, Leftwich and Grossman join Leaf and co on the bust list?
Always take the big nasties. Less injury concerns, too. If they get hurt, you just tape ‘em up, and no one even knows. You ever hear of a 325 lb tackle missing practice time because he “tweaked” a hamstring?
and besides, how much more has Jason Campbell done than Aaron Rogers
NICKL:
All those guys start for their teams when healthy, and all have led their teams to the playoffs. I wish we had suffered more “busts” like that
I think that’s great analysis. While there are a few busts and non-busts that I probably disagree with, I think we lose sight of the overall message if we nit-pick. You could move a few players one way or the other, but the overall message that the data is showing doesn’t change.
The point that’s being made is that given we could use both OL and WR for the future, doesn’t it make sense to take the OL?
I wonder if the numbers would show the same if we were to analyze 2nd round picks. Raf’s earlier analysis showed that WR’s tended to be “risers” which suggests a lot of WR talent went higher than it should. It would be interesting to see if WR’s were a safer pick in the 2nd or 3rd round. That’s when I’d like to grab one.
I think we should take a chance on wr. And of the wr’s available, I feel ginn would give us instant success. But not in the wr role, as much. Moreso as an unbelievably fast punt/kick returner. This kid is lighting and in stead of putting our best defender back to return punts, I feel we should take a chance on ginn and at the same time groom him for the post to/tg era.
If landry is not available at 22, i say take ginn and groom him for the future. ANd for the present, make him this years devin hester.
PittCowboy,
I’m not giving incompletes in my list. If a guy’s not starting, he’s a bust.
NICKL,
“All you need to do to qualify as a hit is become a consistent starter. We can argue till we’re breathless about value or quality, but in this survey a Rex Grossman qualifies as a hit.”
What part of this was unclear?
My point is that a player starting or not starting is very often not due to their ability alone.
Would Rex Grossman be starting if Kyle Orton was better last year?
Would Michael Vick have been replaced by Schaub if he didn’t have such a big contract?
But also, I think that there are players who’ve been tagged busts without getting much of a chance. Can you say that Jason Campbell is better than Aaron Rodgers because Campbell didn’t have to unseat one of the greatest QBs of all time?
How good would Bryant Johnson have to be to get playing time behind arguably the number one receiving duo in the league? Can you really label him a bust or is he just a victim of circumstances?
Even Patrick Ramsey has never really gotten a true chance to start. I’m not saying he’s a good player, but maybe he just needed more game time to demonstrate that he is good.
I think David Carr would qualify as a bust. Just ask Texans fans. I would take Ginn if he is there (which I don’t think for a second he will be) beacause he can do more than just play WR.
Harrington, Boller or Rodgers would probably start on the Bears.
Bryant Johnson and a few other Receiver “busts” would probably have started for last year’s Patriots.
Despite being a starter, Robert Gallery is a bust.
nickl,
You got to draw the line somewhere or otherwise we’re off into the type of digressions you want to have.
I don’t. I’ll grant you EVERY one of your exceptions. Tell me if it changes my bigger points any?
NICKL - don’t disagree with some of your points. But, do you agree with the big picture that Raf is pointing out - that WR is the riskiest draft position? I would have argued against that a few weeks/months ago (and actually think I did) but I think the data is pretty conclusive. I’m all for a WR pick in the 2nd or 3rd round, but I hope we don’t pick one in the 1st.
Raf,
Nice article on quarterback busts.
But I am interested in discussing the risk of drafting a wide reciever compared to other options.
Sorry to hijack the thread, but how about we discuss that instead of busted QBs.
I agree with your point that wide out is high risk. They are also a high reward position. There are no where near 32 number one wideouts in the league.
At the lower third of the first round I think the risk / reward can justify taking a shot.
Raf…
Wasn’t Troy drafted in the 1st round? He’s not listed and he made the HOF. Or are you excluding the “no doubt about its”?
I think you’re right. And I think that you still show that receivers are more likely to be busts, but I think that it is likely that the reason more receivers are busts might be that teams may be more willing to give up on them.
Going back to the Vick-Schaub example, Vick can’t be replaced and Harrington and Carr got a lot more of a chance than Troy Williamson, Roddy White, Michael Clayton, Mike Williams and the like.
I could be wrong, and it may just be that the receivers are THAT much worse than the QBs, but I think there might be a different underlying reason to the disparity among positional success.
On the one side, I see it as very possible that it’s more difficult to understand how well a receiver’s skills will translate to the pro level, but I think that there must be something else.
These things could be contracts (franchise-type QBs get higher contracts), difficulty of replacement (it might not be that hard to replace a receiver who is underachieving, but if a QB shows the glimpses that even Freddie Mitchell showed, he doesn’t get scrapped), etc
Digger,
this post and all the other draft posts are using a ten year frame.
After I posted, I thought that might be the case. Thanks…
It all starts with the the OL. Take the OL, if he is truely and solid no1 pick. If he’s really a high 2nd rounder, then pass and go WR for one of the top four. Get the best available DB in the 2nd, unless that OL guy is still there.
Nickl,
I think QBs get longer looks, but come on, Freddie Mitchell got lots of chances. If it was just a matter of getting longer looks, a lot of those WRs would do a Jimmy Smith and flourish on his second or third team.
Just about all those WR busts are out of football.
By the bottom 3rd of the first round the premium QB, open day LT starters, sure fire pass rushers, huge NT and top DB are gone.
The potential rewards at the other premium positions are not as high while a number of top wideouts were selected in these backets.
Furthermore, a team might be more likely to draft a WR because they have a weak passing game, but this might not be the fault of the receiver himself. When a team drafts a franchise QB, they generally make every effort to help him out. (e.g. the Lions drafting so many receivers for Harrington, Vernon Davis in SF, etc.
It seems like if we’re to say that 2 of the 4 receivers you mentioned(Ginn, the Dwaynes and Meachem) will be a bust, you might wonder if it depends on what team he goes to. Will Ginn have the same success if he’s drafted by the Lions as he will if he’s drafted by the Eagles? Probably not. In Philadelphia, Ginn could step into the role left open by Stallworth, and would have a pro-bowler with a great o-line throwing to him wheras he’d have to fight for the third spot in Detroit and would have to rely on a shoddy O-line to protect a mediocre QB.
It would take a lot of work and I am not asking you to do it, but it would be interested to see the same analysis, but only considering the bottom 3rd of the draft.
I think you’re right Raf, but I don’t think I’m ready to commit to the position. It just seems strange to me that a particular position is more likely to bust. You know what I mean?
Pardon the errors in my last post. Whooooooooooooooooooo, in recent times, got a great receiver after that receiver failed on his previous team. Jimmy Smith was hurt most of his time with the Cowboys and they just gave up on him (one of the BIG mistakes). It was not a failure on his part.
Part of the reason the bust factor on OL is so low is that if you pick someone like that in Round #1 you KNOW they are good.
Nickl,
I’m not opposed to taking a WR in round one. The Cowboys don’t do it often but they were good on their last three. I remember Mike Sherrard as a rookie. He was a dangerous WR before he smashed his shinbone into little pieces.
Alvin Harper was the perfect complement to Michael and of course, #88 will enter Canton this summer.
I’m just saying the Cowboys have to be VERY careful about this position. They need a guy with polish and discipline and a nasty attitude.
I didn’t think one position is inherently more likely to bust than others, but the numbers don’t lie. No other position comes close to WR in numbers of busts.
What may be happening at WR is a lag in scouting. I have nothing in football to compare it to, but I wonder if WR isn’t more prone to measurable bias than others?
How many times do you see a Matt Jones taken in round one based on physical measurables rather than on performance and/or on route running skill?
Look at those names on the bust list. How many of them had nasty 40 times? Or some enticing size/speed combination?
Look at 2001. Six 1st round WRs. Only Reggie Wayne is a consistent above average WR. David Terrell — bust; Koren Robinson — bad hands and off the field problems; Rod Gardner — out of football; Santana Moss — one great year, and is dangerous, but can be bounced around; Freddie Mitchell - was too small and couldn’t beat jams.
Wayne had a rocky first year. His line was good route runner but didn’t have track speed. He’s playing with a deep threat and so it doesn’t matter. He kills people.
And this is what I hope Dallas emphasizes. Give me good hands, intelligence, good route running and the aggression to attack DBs and I’ll be okay with the pick.
NICKL:
In one hand you’re saying that the chances of success of a receiver depend on the team and situation were he gets, while on the other hand you’re also claiming that some QBs that Rafael mentioned as busts are also affected by those situations.
I’m sorry, but a 1st Rounder is expected to start, if it isn’t in his 1st year by his 2nd, if he isn’t starting, or at least being a big contributor, then he’s a bust.
The rest are excuses.
Guys, it’s going to be defense in the 1st round. Accept it and move along. Enter the Phillips era and he needs tools for the 3-4.
You know what would be the most shocking pick at #22?
Kevin Kolb QB Houston
That would make big time news on draft day. Talk about lighting a serious fire under Romo’s butt.
mcallen fan,
No offense intended, but you sound like a Texans fan with that last statement. That’s the type of reasoning I’m seeing on their boards, at least before the Schaub trade, i.e., “who needs Brady Quinn, take Kevin Kolb…”
After you pass on Vince Young, anything to ease the pain.
And yes, it would make big time draft news, the type of risible reviews Jerry heard — and we dreaded — in the late ’90s.
I think we need to take a OT first that way we have a back up plan if McQ doesnt work out.
OLB and CB if the value is good.
I hope we get lucky and get Kalil in the 2nd, he adds depth at center and guard.
OT and C in the first and second can still leave us room to get lucky on a CB, NT, or OLB.
The need at NT sure is hard to ignore though.
One thing that I would love to see also is trading toward the second round or the pick up of future draft picks in the first 4 rounds.
Raf,
Interesting analysis.
My difficulty with it all is the failure rate doesn’t get any better in subsequent rounds. The article is a bit of an empty positive. If you don’t take a WR in round 1, they’re just as likely to bust in round 2, round 3, etc. Heeding the results doesn’t result in avoiding a problem.
So what could really be the solution other than don’t draft busts?
A quick look at round 2 shows…
41 WR selected in round 2.
27 of those WRs would are busts (my sole criteria is they are non-contributors).
6 WR became consistent starters.
66% bust.
15% become starters.
Pretty much the same odds of finding a WR bust in round 2, and the criteria for success is much lower. If you’re looking for a starting WR, drafting one in round 1 starts looking like pretty good odds.
You know what I like about this draft?? We’re all argueing about the different positions we should be drafting and there really is no consensus which position is most important for the Cowboys this year. This team is so much better that even with some of these really great college players, we’re not sure if they’d be able to come in and start. What position on this team can any of honestly say that with pick #22 we’re going to have an immediate upgrade?? Excellent WR’s. Two hard hitting safeties. Two top cover CB’s (when Henry’s healthy!!LOL). Lot’s of “girth” on the O-line and D-line. Oh, and two RB’s who provide us with one of the best running attacks in the league. And that’s not even mentioning our 3 time Pro-Bowl TE. I just remember so many drafts past where you absolutely knew who we were going to draft. We need a DE, so Ellis is the pick. Still need a DE, so Ekuban. Just gotta have a safety and a CB, so Biscuit and Newman come on down. Even when BP was here you still at least knew which position was going to get drafted. I gotta say, I like having a team that’s got enough good players on it that I can’t remotely guess who we’re targeting.
Rafael,
You are missing someone by the name of Cade McNown…1st round pick of the Chicago Bears…great college QB out of UCLA…but as an NFL QB has to be defined as BUST!!
Also, I totally agree with your logic. I don’t want to take that 50/50 chance. I actually think the odds are greater than that for failure in this particular draft, unless someone is ‘lucky’ enough to draft Calvin.
why is michael clayton listed as a bust?
he had a great rookie year and is still a starter.
TL,
WTF! Yep. Should go on my list. Just too many bad QBs that year.
And, if I had to pick two, I’ll put my chips down on Jarret and Bowe as busts-to-be.
(Though I really like Bowe.)
iwillmissTuna,
Clayton’s not listed on the Bucs depth chart right now. He had only 9 starts for the Bucs last year, his production is down two years in a row and if the Bucs land Calvin Johnson as many expect them to, Clayton’s going to the bench permanently, not Joey Galloway. 66 combined receptions in ‘05 and ‘06 after 80 your rookie year looks like Bustville to me.
If no Nelson, why not Blalock with the 22nd with those kinds of numbers?
I’d rather have Aundrae Allison or Jason Hill in the 2nd than the first round WR.
Please no Jerry.
If I draft a WR in Round 1, I want to know that they’ll become above average to dominant.
I cant say that about any of them other than CJ.
If I take a risk, I try to take it in the 2nd or 3rd, not the first.
Why a preference for drafting one in round 2?
You’re just as likely to draft a bust in round 2 and far less likely to find a starter.
I like Allison and Hill too, but I see zero difference in drafting a WR in the low 1st versus the high 2nd.
The only benefit of drafting a WR in round 2 or 3 is we don’t need an immediate starter.
Sam.Iam:
That’s because taking a bust with a 1st Rounder is a bigger bust than a 2nd Round one.
He would also be a millionaire bust.
Just some observations.
There are more WR’s available for the draft than QB’s yet virtually the same number of each are chosen in the top 10 with a much higher bust rate for WR’s.
Taking “SPEED OF THE GAME” into consideration it would appear that QB’s would be much more affected in the transition from college to pro and thus be more likely to bust.
How many of those QB’s got “pine riding time” to prepair VS the WR’s?
Sam-
What Chandus said.
hey….lets say dallas wants to go blaylock in first round, could we trade down a spot or two, like when the time comes.
SamIAm, I imagine the bust % goes way up for all positions after round 1. The question is whether WR is still a higher bust % relative to the others. It may be that WR is just an overall more risky pick no matter when you take them, as you suggest. But, that might be all the more reason to take one later - it doesn’t hurt as much when you miss. We don’t absolutely HAVE to get a WR this year given TO and TG, with some young guys behind them. We could wait a year and see how the young one’s develop. So why take that 1st round risk this year?
rodgers a bust i agree, favre starts in what 3,000 consecutive games and when he exits the game with an injury rodgers can`t even finish the game, question would be do u think the packers would pick him again if they could go back in time? i don`t
Another great article Raf.
However, I’d like to look at this information from a different point of view. The draft success of positions in round one is more of an analysis of GMs over the last 10 years not the talent. Players have no input on where they are selected. The fact that more then 50% of the WRs selected in the first round are “bustsâ€Â. Has more to do with the GMs ability to evaluate WRs or the GM didn’t do a good job of evaluating the players they had on staff.
I wouldn’t allow the success or failures of past GMs to influence my draft strategy as some are suggesting. I would rather take a look at the history of the players and positions are successful, regardless of draft selection.
I doubt JJ will let the Boys follow in the Lions footsteps:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft07/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=2806572
I think it’s good analysis, but a lot of statistical items don’t factor in mitigating factors.
I agree at setting a baseline critera for evaluation purposes. Now there can be arguements about where that baseline should be.
But that’s a problem when comparing across positions. For example, you can’t look at a tackle’s completion percentage.
In fact, offensive lineman are about the last position in sport where contributions are almost impossible to quantify with numbers.
Here’s a question: is a team more likely to stick with an underperforming wideout, or quarterback?
Or offensive tackle, or running back?
Then there’s team-dependant questions. Would Roethlisburger have been as successful in another system?
And organization-dependant ones. If the Bengals head-scout for 8 of those 10 years NOT been the head coach would they have had a higher success rate?
So I think it’s good research for starting a discussion, but I don’t think a team can base it’s evaluations on it. “We can’t take a wide out because they bust”
What if the Cowboys had Troy Williamson graded as the 13th best WR in the draft?
But to really draw any conclusion on bust-rate, what we REALLY need is a copy of the Cowboys previous pre-draft rankings.
Then we atleast take out bad scouting as a variable.
(Going back and reading - I just want to mimmick Roger’s fan in post 54. Much more economical with the language)
I like the analysis but if a O line is the safest pick and we need a future left OT who do we draft in the first round if Thomas, Brown and Staley are gone? Does it make sense to pick up Blalock or Grubbs at #22? We could probably land a highly rated CB instead?
My preferences in the first round are:
OT Joe Staley-he is a legitimate LT prospect
OT/G-Justin Blalock although he does not appear to be a LT prospect
CB-Darrelle Revis, Aaron Ross, Chris Houston
WR-Dwayne Bowe, otherwise we can get a receiver in the 2nd or 3rd round
For NT I like Keith Jackson, Ark., 6′0 303 big motor, on the second day