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Getting Their Guy

The Cowboys, according to a CNNSI interview between Jerry Jones and Peter King, had four players on their first round must list. Eventual pick Anthony Spencer topped the list, and King learned LSU WR Dwayne Bowe was another.

Jones claims the War Room was happy to make the deal for Cleveland’s ‘06 #1, but admitted,

“But I’ll tell you something,” Jones added. “There was a little bit of a hollow feeling in our draft room, because now we had traded back so far, to Cleveland’s pick in the second round, that we thought there was no way we’d have a chance at one of the four players we wanted.”

Who were the four? Let’s look at the players taken between 23 and 29:

23. Kansas City — Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
24. New England — Brandon Meriweather, FS, Miami
25. Carolina — Jon Beason, LB, Miami
26. Dallas — Anthony Spencer, OLB, Purdue
27. New Orleans — Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
28. San Francisco — Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
29. Baltimore — Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn

Jones admits that he talked to Baltimore about moving down, but was prepared to take Spencer at 22 had Cleveland not offered it’s first next year. This means he didn’t feel moving down to 29 would give him a shot at the Fab Four.

Remember too, that New England was at 28 at the time and uses many of the same defensive player templates. Dallas could likely not risk dropping and staying behind them.

Beason at 25 did not fit Dallas’ profiles. He’s a 4-3 LB, who would have been perfect in a Jimmy Johnson scheme.

This leaves, with the order of preference a guess on my part, aside from Spencer’s place at the top:
1. Spencer,
2. Bowe,
3. Meriweather,
4. Meachem.

I had Meriweather in my mock draft and would have liked him. But there’s no way Dallas could have made the Cleveland/Philadelphia deals and gotten him. They got the next guy on my preferred list. I’ve said it for a while. The defense isn’t finished. Adding a pass rusher gets the Cowboys one step closer to that goal.

Draft ‘07 — The Amazing Disappearing 2nd Round

The caterwauling has begun, among Dallas faithful and across the NFL. This pick stinks. That pick stinks. The team reached. They didn’t fill this or that need…

I’m seeing this more than usual this year, because the board was softer than any in the 18 years I’ve been buying draft guides and dissecting the action.

The War Room Scouts, who put together an NFL-type draft board for The Sporting News gave 26 players 1st round grades this year, just 22 players 2nd round grades, 39 players 3rd round grades and 51 players 4th round grades, suggesting that smart teams needed to get their guy in round one and head for the middle, if they wanted maximum value.

Want proof that any type of consensus among real War Room boards fell apart after approximately 30 picks? Take a look at Rick Gosselin’s Top 100, which he compiles from league sources. It’s the best information laymen will get pre-draft on what teams are really thinking about players. It’s so good I’ve been told some NFL teams use the top 100 as a guide when running through pre-draft scenarios.

But look at the ratings of some 2nd round-rated players and their actual draft positions:

36. Ryan Kalil – taken 59th, - 23 spots;
37. Trent Edwards — taken 92nd, - 55 spots;
43. Craig Davis — taken 30th, +13 spots;
47. Antonio Pittman — taken 107th, -60 spots;
50. Marcus McCauley — taken 72nd, - 22 spots;
51. John Beck — taken 40th, + 11 spots;
53. Tank Tyler — taken 82nd, - 29 spots;
54. Zack Miller – taken 38th, + 16 spots;
55. Ray McDonald – taken 97th, - 42 spots;
57. Eric Weddle — taken 37th, +20 spots;
59. Charles Johnson — taken 83rd, - 24 spots;
60. Tanard Jackson — taken 106th, -46 spots;
61. Jason Hill – taken 76th, - 15 spots;
62. Jonathan Wade — taken 84th, - 22 spots;
65. Andy Alleman — taken 88th, - 23 spots;

That’s half of the second round, the meat of the first day, that didn’t fall within ten spots of their ratings. In many cases, the players dropped almost a full round and in four cases almost two rounds from their ratings.

This suggests that the middle and late second round was a giant black hole, where teams scrambled to get the best deals or just fled. Dallas has taken some heat for trading out of the 53rd spot but look at two consensus draft gurus and their actions:

– San Diego GM A.J. Smith pushed Gosselin’s board to the breaking point. Smith took WR Craig Davis 13 spots higher than his rating, landing the mid-2nd round rated wideout late in the first. Then, he traded up 25 spots, from the 62nd pick to the 37th slot, and took Utah’s Eric Weddle, though Weddle was rated 57th. Said Smith, “I felt there was no chance he would be there in the bottom of the round.”

You think Gosselin’s draft grades will slap Smith with a D for getting cute? Fat chance.

Next, look at New England’s behavior. The Pats gambled on Miami FS Brandon Meriweather, then traded the 28th overall pick to San Francisco for the ‘Niners’ ‘08 #1 and a fourth this year. The Pats didn’t ask for San Fran’s second rounder at 42, though they didn’t have a second of their own.

Scott Pioli and Bill Belichick didn’t feel the second was worth the trouble this year. The Boston Herald summarized the Pats thinking this way:

This isn’t considered the deepest draft in the world, so rather than address an immediate need at linebacker with a player like Michigan’s David Harris, the Pats pocketed the pick for next year when the draft class is supposed to improve and the pick will likely be higher than 28th.

New England made a trade for an ‘08 first rounder, speculating it will be higher and the Pats bailed altogether on the 2nd round. Hmmm. Sound like some wacky, hyperactive owner some people bashed this weekend?

Lastly, look at the Eagles. They tracked Meriweather and were willing to let Dallas back into the first after the Pats selected him. They spent their first pick on QB Kevin Kolb, suggesting they didn’t see any “wow” to immediately bolster their squad in the 26 to 40 pick range either.

Any team can justify taking any player almost anywhere after the first 35 picks this year. Take 4th round pick Isaiah Stanback, the most controversial Cowboys’ pick, judging from reactions on this site and elsewhere. One draft book lists him as a sixth rounder. Another as a fifth. On the other hand, Pro Football Weekly’s ‘07 Draft Guide guide says this,

“[Stanback] has as much physical talent as anyone in the NFL and could be a dynamic game-changer capable of contributing immediately, similar to the way Michael Robinson (49ers) and Brad Smith (Jets) — both fourth-round picks in 2006 — did as rookies.

They rated him as a 3rd to 4th round player.

Think James Marten was overdrafted at the 67th spot because Gosselin rated him 85th? Consider that Doug Free was rated 77th and was drafted in the 122nd spot. Just tell yourself that Dallas took Free in the early 3rd and Marten in the late 4th. I guarantee you’ll sleep better.

While you’re lamenting the 3rd round receiver Dallas lost trading up for Anthony Spencer, try thinking of the players Dallas can now realistically dream of getting with the Browns’ pick next April –

Darren McFadden, Jake Long, Glenn Dorsey, Brian Brohm, Mario Manningham…

Don’t you feel better already?

Late Rounds Thread

The last one needs a breather.

2nd Day Open Thread

10:20 — Dallas was not joking about selecting a QB. It takes Washington signal caller Isaiah Stanback with the 103rd pick.

10:10 — Oakland starts the 4th by picking RB Michael Bush.

Cowboys Will Be Working Early

They’ve got the 4th pick of the 2nd day.

Some names to consider at that spot:

1. Tanard Jackson, DB, Syracuse
2. Doug Free, OT, Northern Illinois
3. Paul Soliai, NT, Utah
4. Antonio Johnson, DT, Miss. State
5. Josh Beekman, OL, Boston College
6. David Clowney, WR, Virginia Tech
7. Jay Moore, DE, Nebraska
8. Brian Robison, DE, Texas
9. Michael Bush, RB, Louisville
10. Michael Coe, CB, Alabama St.
11. Jermon Bushrod, OT, Towson State
12. Brannon Condren, S, Troy
13. Allen Barbre, OG, Missouri Southern

These are the leavings from Rick Gosselin’s Top 100, which didn’t measure up to its reputation this year, falling apart in the middle of round two and losing coherence in round three.

This tells me there was nothing approaching consensus among NFL War Rooms this year, because his is a composite board.

Other names to watch:

Anthony Arline, CB, Baylor
Courtney Brown, CB, Cal Poly
Tarell Brown, CB, Texas

John Wendling, FS, Wyoming

Ben Patrick, TE, Delaware

LaRon McClain, FB, Alabama

Aundrae Allison, WR, East Carolina
Dallas Baker, WR, Florida
Chansi Stuckey, WR, Clemson
Courtney Taylor, WR, Auburn

Cowboys Draft Again — Take B.C. OT James Marten

8:42 — Somebody finally took Jerry’s points chart away.

The Cowboys made their second selection of the day, adding Boston College OT James Marten to Purdue OLB Anthony Spencer.

OTs, especially 3rd round OTs, are never sexy picks. But Dallas was clearly affected by that mid-2nd round dropoff; the early to mid-2nd saw the big time OGs go (Arron Sears to Tampa Bay and Justin Blalock to Atlanta) the WRs snatched from grasp (Sidney Rice, Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith all went between picks 44 and 51) and FB Brian Leonard taken one spot ahead of the Cowboys.

Marten earned acclaim as the most versatile lineman in this year’s draft, able to play every position, including center.

Dallas Trades With Cleveland Again!

7:27 — The Cowboys, who lost their 3rd rounder in the Anthony Spencer deal, trade down a second time with the Browns, swapping the 53rd pick for a very early 3rd (3rd in the round) a high 4th (4th in that round) and a swap of 6ths, which moves Dallas up from 26th to 4th in that round.

In points the trade is a wash. They give up 370 points and gain 364. They’re trading quality for quantity, gambling that a 3rd and two 4th rounders can get them more than a 2nd and a 4th.

Getting Bold To Avoid Getting Cute

Trading down from the 22nd pick to the 36th was something the old Jerry Jones did with frequency.

Moving back up to 26th may have made him look hyperactive, but it utimately kept him from looking dumb.

We’ve heard for at least a week now that Dallas liked OLB Anthony Spencer and perhaps DB Brandon Meriweather. When Dallas pick came on the clock, both players were available.

Equally as important, QB Brady Quinn, a mockers’ consensus top ten pick was also there to be had. Dallas had lucked into another J.P. Losman-like scenario. Teams at the top of the 2nd round, who needed QBs and who had passed on Quinn, now had a chance to claim him. Cleveland saw a chance to pair the Ohio native with OT Joe Thomas and made their bid. On points, Dallas could been impatient and asked for Cleveland’s 3rd rounder, which would have made the difference between the teams’ spots (240 points).

Instead, Jerry Jones squeezed Cleveland’s 2008 1st rounder out of the bargain, a fascinating bet that a team with 19 victories the past four years will remain in the league’s lower half.

The math changed dramatically when New England took Meriweather with the 24th selection. The Patriots had another first rounder at 28 and could have scuttled Dallas’ plans all by themselves. They’re overhauling their aging linebacking corps, which lost Tully Banta-Cain to free agency and which is losing Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel to age. New England landed Adalius Thomas in free agency and adding Spencer could have bolstered their rush.

Also lying in wait were the Ravens, Colts and Cardinals. If Dallas had to have Spencer, it had to move back up. And move it did, trading again with the Eagles (who were Dallas’ trade partner in the Chris Canty deal two years ago). The Cowboys gave up their 3rd and 5th round picks.

That’s a heavy price, but I’d trade a 3rd and 5th for Cleveland’s #1 any day. Teams make quantum leaps forwards and backwards every year and the Browns could be one of this season’s surprises. But that would require that Quinn be Dan Marino Jr., good straight out of the box, or that Charlie Frye sustain a passable Otto Graham impersonation for sixteen games.

If they don’t, Dallas is looking at a top ten pick next year.

On the Cowboys’ end, the rush had to be addressed. For all the talk — valid talk — of secondary needs, the Cowboys notched just 34th sacks, leaving them in a four-way tie for 18th.

Spencer can be eased in, with Bobby Carpenter able to play on early downs. Carpenter can also take some reps inside, where he’s more athletic than Bradie James, who may be the reps loser in the transaction. A healthy Greg Ellis means Demarcus Ware won’t have to play 100% of the downs to give Dallas the maximum threat.

– Fresh from the board. Say goodbye to the guards. Arron Sears and Justin Blalock have just left the board before the 40th pick. I’m thinking wide receiver. Sidney Rice, Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett are still available.

6:45 – Top players available — Ryan Kalil, Trent Edwards, Steve Smith, Antonio Pittman, Marcus McCauley, Eric Wright.

Losman Redux — Dallas Trades Down to 36

4:07 — (Raul) The Cowboys trade the 2nd rounder they got from Cleveland (36), a 3rd rounder (87) and a 5th rounder (159) to Philadelphia for their 1st rounder (26) and select DE Anthony Spencer from Purdue.

The 26th pick is worth 700 points. The 3 picks Dallas offered are worth 723. The 5th rounder itself is worth 28 points, so Dallas could package any of their two 6th rounders or three 7th rounders to move into the 5th if they so desire.

3:18 — The Cowboys select NOBOBY with the 22nd pick. They trade down with Cleveland, who selects QB Brady Quinn.

The points difference between 22 and 26 is 240 points or an early 3rd rounder. We’ll see what Dallas got in return.

Update: Dallas gets Cleveland’s 2008 #1. Cowboys fans now have two teams to root for every Sunday — the ‘Pokes and the team playing the Browns.

3:04 — The Jaguars take Reggie Nelson, making it four DBs in a row. The Cowboys are up.

2:58 — The Giants draft Texas CB Aaron Ross. Not a surprise. They badly need cornerback help. The DB run deepens.

Notice the last seven picks? Revis, Hall, Griffin, Ross. The top three CBs are gone.

2:48 – The Titans take Michael Griffin. He’s the 19th pick. We’re officially into the “who do you love” area, where the board will get awfully, awfully squishy.

Also, the DB run is starting early. If you want one, definitely get one now.

2:37 — Get your defense early. This is an offensive heavy draft, yet seven of the last eight picks have been on defense. Teams know if they don’t fill their sacks early on that side of the ball they miss out.

2:30 and what do we know?

– Brady Quinn is falling, and he could fall farther than Aaron Rogers. Who needs a QB in the next eight to ten picks? The Bengals are set. So is Tennessee, the Giants, etc. The Jags might think about him but I don’t think they’ll go QB.

Dallas could be in position to pull another Losman deal, moving down into the early 2nd with teams like Cleveland, Detroit and Tampa Bay, who could have taken Quinn in the first.

– Best move so far — the Jets moving up to get Darelle Revis. He fills a huge hole and they had two 2nds to play with, both late in the round.

– From Dallas’ perspective: Jacksonville still sits ahead of the Cowboys and is an even more likley candidate to take Reggie Nelson at 21, IMO.

First Round Open Thread

Update on the Michael Turner Story: The Nashville Tennessean claims the Titans have offered to swap #1s with the Chargers and offer a 4th rounder in addition.

The article says the Titans did not and will not offer an ‘08 #1 and that the Chargers have apparently found the ‘08 first rounder from the “mystery team” acceptable. A story earlier in the San Diego Union Tribune said the Chargers would not accept a swap of 1sts, which had been offered last week by the Cowboys.

This gets more interesting by the minute.

Dallas Chased Michael Turner Once. Are They Doing It Again?

The San Diego Union Tribune tonight confirms that the Chargers have been offered an ‘08 first round pick from an unidentified team for RB Michael Turner. Speculation centers around Green Bay, though a source close to the Packers told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel this afternoon the Packers were not the mystery club.

The Cowboys could be the club. The story says Dallas earlier offered to swap 1st round spots and its 3rd rounder in exchange for Turner. The points add up to 355, or a late 2nd round pick. (The Cowboys’ 53rd pick is worth 370 points, for comparisons sake.) The story also says Dallas withdrew the offer because Turner’s agent Bus Cook make excessive contract demands.

The Cowboys may be making another run.

Update: The Nashville Tennessean claims the Titans have offered to swap #1s with the Chargers and offer a 4th rounder in addition.

The article says the Titans did not and will not offer an ‘08 #1 and that the Chargers have apparently found the ‘08 first rounder acceptable. A story earlier in the San Diego Union Tribune said the Chargers would not accept a swap of 1sts, which had been offered last week by the Cowboys.

This gets more interesting by the minute.

– In other news, the Packers are trying to obtain WR Randy Moss from the Raiders.

–

Wanted — Live Blogger

I’m going to be away from the draft tomorrow for the first two hours and later in the afternoon when Dallas will pick, assuming the Cowboys stay at 22.

If you want to work the control and keep the rest of the ‘Boys Blog community up to speed, e-mail us ASAP. The link is in the left hand margin.

Just Thinking Out Loud

I wonder if any of these statements are related?

1. Jerry Jones has said he has two offers to move down and collect a #1 next year;

2. Espn said this afternoon that a team offered San Diego a #1 next year for Michael Turner. Wouldn’t it make more sense to trade your ‘08 #1 if you knew you could get somebody else’s ‘08 #1? If Dallas pulls the trigger on point one, might they be the team making A.J. Smith the offer?

3. If you’re after Turner, wouldn’t you have worked out a destination for Julius Jones? There’s no point in having three running backs.

None of these points may be valid or related. But it makes me wonder…

Smoke From The War Room…

… a trade that they’ll deny.

Smooooooke, from the Waaaar Room….

Where’s Richie Blackmore when you need him?

It’s 5 pm. What do we know?

– The Chiefs deny the report that Green Bay has offered a package for Larry Johnson.

– Matt Mosely claims on ESPN that he thinks Dallas will try to trade down for Anthony Spencer. Maybe, Matt, but this would be a risky move. He’s rated 34th on Rick Gosselin’s Top 100, but there are 3-4 teams like the Pats (24th and 28th) the Jets (25th) and the Ravens (29th) who could snag him if Dallas trades down too far.

Think Tony Brackens in ‘96. The Cowboys got cute, tried trading down seven spots when he was on the board and he was on the clock, saw him drafted by Jacksonville, and then tried to convince everybody that Kavika Pittman was the guy they were after all along.

– The San Diego Union Tribune says the Chargers probably will not touch S Brandon Meriweather if he’s available at pick 30. This is the team that drafted Shawne Merriman. Now, Merriman never stomped on a guy during a gametime fight, but he did have his own set of issues, which factored into Dallas’ choice of Demarcus Ware. I wonder if Chargers’ GM A.J. Smith might be hiding in plain sight?

– Espn reports that the Chargers have been offered an ‘08 1st rounder for RB Michael Turner. The Packers are denying that they’re the team.

Sources have told me that Green Bay is a team that likes to trade down and stockpile picks, so I believe they’re not the mystery team, if it even exists.

– I’ve seen reports that the Steelers have talked about swapping #1s with Denver. The Broncos appear desperate to move up and get a defensive lineman and may be hoping Adam Carriker is on the board at 15. If the Steelers move down to 21, OG Ben Grubbs may be their man.

– More as I see it.

Larry Johnson to Green Bay? It’s Draft’s Eve

The biggest story of Draft Friday has Green Bay offering the 16th pick and it’s 4th rounder to Kansas City for RB Larry Johnson.

Let’s consider the trickle down effects if the Chiefs accept.

With Thomas Jones setting the market thus far with an end-of-2nd rating and Johnson going for a mid 1st (again IF it happens) I think we could peg Michael Turner’s and Julius Jones’ values at somewhere in the high to mid 2nd rounds, if a buyer were found.

On the Jones front, I’ve seen a rumor that he’s been offered to Buffalo for the 43rd pick but have found nothing even remotely concrete to validate it. Take it for what it is right now — wild speculation.

Other early rumors:

– The Broncos are trying to move up into the top 10, allegedly to draft DL Omobi Okoye, if he lasts that long. If Denver stays at 21, its top candidates are apparently DEs Jarvis Moss and Anthony Spencer, two guys you often see on Cowboys’ wish lists.

– The Giants are considering Dwayne Jarrett with the 20th pick.

– The Redskins and Bears are talking about Lance Briggs again.

The same story says the Redskins would consider WRs Dwayne Bowe and Ted Ginn Jr. in the 31st spot if either were available.

What does this say about Washington’s wild ‘06 free agent spree? The Redskins have already cut their losses with S Adam Archuleta, trading him to the Bears. Drafting a WR in the first would indict the high dollar signings of Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle-El. If Washington stays at pick 6, it will likely take a defensive lineman to improve its anemic rush, which was not helped by signee Andre Carter.

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