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Think Of It As Julius Jones Versus the Rest of the NFL…

July 2, 2007

…not just Julius Jones versus Marion Barber, for those of you with JJ/MB3 fatigue.

ESPN.com’s Nate Ravitz weighs in on the familiar Cowboys’ running back debate today. Ravitz’s column is ostensibly a fantasy football analysis, but he bases his analysis on the overall talent and expected production of the backs, so the article has value for the non-fantasy-motivated Cowboy fan as well.

Ravitz comes down squarely on the side of Barber. His analysis centers around the gap in YPC between the two backs, and their likeliness to get stopped behind the line versus their propensity for big plays:

Last season, Jones averaged 4.1 yards per carry, while Barber’s YPC was 4.8. That’s a glaring difference, and not just for the obvious reasons. Barber actually had a handicap in this category because he received more carries in short-yardage situations. In fact, if you remove just the touchdowns from three yards out and in, Barber’s YPC swells to 5.1, and Jones‘ … well, he didn’t score any short-yardage touchdowns.

One of the main reasons why Jones trails Barber in yards-per-carry is his propensity for getting stuffed behind the line of scrimmage. According to STATS Inc., Barber was stuffed just six times in 135 carries, and his .044 stuff percentage was the second-best mark in the NFL. In stark contrast, Jones was stuffed 26 times in 267 carries, producing a .097 rate that was among the very worst in the game.

Jones also averaged only 4.0 yards per carry on first-and-10 situations — again, one of the very worst marks in the league. And for all of the talk about his big-play ability, Jones, in those 267 carries, had just five runs of 20 yards or more, one more than Barber (135 carries),Wali Lundy (124) and Vernand Morency (91).

The YPC argument is one we’ve heard before, and as most Cowboy fans know, it is not as simple as Ravitz makes it out to be. Julius Jones got the bulk of his carries early in games against fresh defenses. MB3 logged most of his carries late in games, when defenses were tired and Dallas was in two TE road-grade mode. This can account for much of the YPC disparity, and probably SOME of Jones’ higher likelihood of getting stuffed behind the line.

The potentially new information here, though, is the comparison between Jones and the rest of the league, not just between Jones and Barber. Jones’ count of 5 big plays and his high “stuff” rating of .097 put him near the bottom of the league amongst comparable backs, and it is less easy to justify his difficulties from that perspective.

While we can understand why it would be easier for MB3 to break a 20+ yard run late in a game, there is no reason Julius should be in the same category of 20+ yarders as runners like Wali Lundy and Vernand Morency, who did not solely run late in games, who received far fewer overall carries, and who are overall not exceptionally talented or productive backs. Similarly, the .097 number is alarming because it is reportedly low relative to all the other backs in the league, not just relative to Barber.

As a Julius Jones booster, I am looking forward to what should be a make-or-break season for him in what he claims is a friendlier offense to his skill set. It is worthwhile to note that it was Bill Parcells, not Wade Phillips, who passed on Steven Jackson, Greg Jones, and others to draft Julius Jones with Dallas’ first pick of the 2004 draft. Phillips has no personal stake in Jones’ success and should feel no pressure to play him, particularly with Jones becoming a free agent at the end of this season. The competition this year should be decided solely on merit.

Written by Tim Wilson · Filed Under Fantasy, Players | 55 Comments 

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