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NFL Quarterly Report — The World’s Upside Down

We talk a lot on The ‘Boys Blog about the turnover in the NFL. We introduced the four losers to the playoffs trend that’s been in place this decade.

Four games into the season and that tendency looks conservative. Let’s take a look at last year’s playoff field and their current records:

NFC

Division Champs

• East - Philadelphia was 10-6, is 1-3 in ‘07
• North — Chicago was 13-3 in ‘06, is 1-3 in ‘07
• South — New Orleans was 10-6 in ‘06, is 0-3 in ‘07
• West — Seattle was 9-7 in ‘06, is 3-1 in ‘07

Wild Cards

• Dallas was 9-7 in ‘06, is 4-0 in ‘07
• New York was 8-8 in ‘06, is 2-2 in ‘07

AFC

Division Champs

• East — New England was 12-4 in ‘06, is 3-0 in ‘07
• North — Baltimore was 13-3 in ‘06, is 2-2 in ‘07
• South — Indianapolis was 12-4 in ‘06, is 4-0 in ‘07
• West — San Diego was 14-2 in ‘06, is 1-3 in ‘07

Wild Cards

• New York was 10-6 in ‘06, is 1-3 in ‘07
• Kansas City was 9-7 in ‘06, is 2-2 in ‘07

Meanwhile, look at the teams that picked first in the ‘07 draft:

1. Oakland was 3-13 in ‘06, is 2-2 in ‘07
2. Detroit was 3-13 in ‘06, is 3-1 in ‘07
3. Cleveland was 4-12 in ‘06, is 2-2 in ‘07
4. Tampa Bay was 4-12 in ‘06, is 3-1 in ‘07
5. Arizona was 4-12 in ‘06, is 2-2 in ‘07
6. Washington was 5-11 in ‘06, is 2-1 in ‘07

None of these teams have losing records and some of them look like legitimate playoff contenders.

Only four of last year’s field look like strong bets to remain in the playoffs, Seattle and Dallas in the NFC and the old standards New England and Indy in the AFC. That’s not to say that more members of the ‘06 field won’t claw their way back, but we could see a lot more new faces come January.

Right now four new playoff teams looks like too few.

Notes:

A University of Philadelphia redshirt may need another year. LT Winston Justice was supposed to be one of the top prospects who would help the Eagles reload and maintain their winning ways. Philadelphia’s 2nd round pick was inactive almost all of last year but was pressed into service when William Thomas was injured last week.

Justice may still have a stellar career but he’s smarting tonight after Osi Umenyiora gave him a schooling. Umenyiora sacked Donovan McNabb six times tonight, going around and through the overmatched Eagles’ lineman. The Giants bagged McNabb twelve times, dropping the division champs to 1-3.

Mythbusting

Give ‘Em Hell Norm

Norm Hitzges put a loud and emphatic ban on whiny fans who called to complain the Cowboys are not getting respect for their strong start.

Agreed. Two weeks ago, I urged fans not to be figure skating judges, trying to assign style points for wins. Today, I want to examine a new practice in NFL coverage that’s tainting team assessments in my opinions.

I’m talking about NCAA-style rankings. Fans gnash their teeth because CNNSi or ESPN or some source they watch doesn’t rank their team high enough.

Get - over - it.

The Cowboys fate does not rest with some bowl selection committee or with sportswriters or coaches. It’s solely in their hands.

People are trying to rip teams apart, based on their schedules. Dallas’ opponents have won two games at 4:00 pm Sunday and will have won three at most by day’s end. It simply doesn’t matter. Yes, the Cowboys have played weak teams, but they didn’t make the schedule. What’s more, how many teams thought their first quarter would be so weak? The Giants won eight games last year. The Bears won thirteen. St. Louis won eight and the Dolphins six. Is it Dallas’ fault they’ve all collapsed early?

This is the NFL. The league sets the schedules, not AD Jerry Jones. The Cowboys can only play the teams put in front of them. And I’d say they’re done a good job of it. When you face bad teams and you fancy yourself a good one, you need to beat them decisively. Let’s look at points allowed and margin of victory:

1. New York — 35 points allowed; 10 point win;
2. Miami — 20 points allowed; 17 point win;
3. Chicago — 10 points allowed; 24 point win;
4. St. Louis — 7 points allowed; 28 point win;

The Cowboys are allowing fewer points every week and winning by a bigger margin each week. They’re doing exactly what they’re supposed to do.

And no matter how weak your regular season schedule might be, you don’t get a cheap path to the Super Bowl. You still have to beat playoff-caliber teams in the post season.

Pull your chairs ups up, whipper snappers, and let this old hand tell you about the ‘72 Miami Dolphins. Everybody knows they’re the only undefeated team in modern NFL history. But those who were not watching back then don’t know how much second guessing and qualifying their record endured during their perfect season.

The Dolphins did not play a playoff team during the season. In fact, Miami played only two teams that finished with winning records, the 8-6 Chiefs, whom Miami had beaten in an epic six quarter playoff game the year before and the 8-6 New York Giants.

When they made the Super Bowl, Miami was just a one point favorite over the 11-3 Redskins. Many experts favored Washington, arguing that Miami had not beaten anybody all year.

Does anybody cite Miami’s schedule strength these days? Does anybody besides numbers geeks like me even know their opponents’ records? No. Those Dolphins are considered one of the top teams ever.

I’m not comparing the Cowboys to the ‘72 Dolphins. They’ve won four games, which is small potatoes in the grander scheme of things. They have not even qualified for the playoffs, never mind won a playoff game. Nevertheless, Dallas and its fans should take a lesson from that pantheon team. You can only beat who you face and as long as Dallas keeps working and winning, who cares what any media naysayers think?

Browns Watch –

We’re at the quarter pole, let’s take stock of Cleveland.

They’re 2-2. They’re top-10 skill position draft picks, Kellen Winslow Jr. and Braylon Edwards, have put their injury problems behind them and are playing like big money players. They beat the Ravens today, straight up. Baltimore moved the ball, but their offense broke down completely in the Cleveland red zone. They look like pretenders to their 13-3 record.

The Browns were opportunistic. They scored 14 points off Baltimore turnovers. Winslow beat Ed Reed on Cleveland’s opening TD drive. It’s early and they’ve got holes, but the Browns pick does not look like a top-5 pick today. Not even close.

Your Sunday Numbers of the Day

3 - 5 - 3

and

3 - 3 - 5

The first sequence shows Dallas’ 1st quarter drives:  a three play drive followed by a five play drive followed by a three play series.

The second sequence catalogs Dallas’ 3rd quarter drives. A three play set, a three play set and a five play series.

The difference? Dallas’ 11 first quarter plays netted 23 yards, one first down and three punts.

Dallas’ 11 third quarter plays netted 191 yards and three touchdowns.

2nd Half Thread, Cowboys vs. Rams

Take a deep breath and score more points.

Cowboys vs. Rams First Half Thread

Finally, an early game!

Pregame — Dallas vs. St. Louis

The Cowboys go for 4-0 at home against the Rams.

When Dallas Has the Ball

Julius Jones’ concussion problems may limit his carries or keep him out. In any case, Marion Barber should get more carries, in line with his increased work load the last two games.

He’ll face a St. Louis front that’s ranked 28th against the run, allowing 152 yards per game and a 4.7 average per carry. The Cowboys, who rank 5th in rushing, have averaged 146 yards per game on the ground.

St. Louis lacks size. The Rams drafted Nebraska DE Adam Carriker with their first pick and moved him to NT. But he’s the only lineman above 290 on a four man line even smaller than Chicago’s.

DC Jim Haslett would love to change up and blitz the Cowboys but I doubt Dallas will get too cute. They’ve started slowly and this could be the week the Cowboys go for the early lead in the hopes of turning their rush loose against Marc Bulger.

The Rams have played their games close to the vest and falling behind early would force them to try and play shootout with Dallas.

The Rams have been strong statistically versus the pass, but this may have to do with the ineffectiveness of San Francisco’s passing attack and the fact that their three opponents have had so much success on the ground.

Dallas is by far the most balanced attack and Jason Witten and the Dallas receivers must be relishing the play action options they’ll have if the Cowboys and get the running attack going quickly. St. Louis is missing starting CB Tye Hill, who would have drawn Terrell Owens.

When St. Louis Has the Ball

Think the Rams are not missing LT Orlando Pace? Marc Bulger was one of the best NFC QBs last year but this year has a 368 yard blowout game sandwiched between two 150+ yard outings. He’s faced constant pressure since game one and Wade Phillips will no doubt bring heavy pressure early to test St. Louis’ protection. Greg Ellis may join the Cowboys’ arsenal this week, after a couple of promising practices.

Was Leonard One Who Got Away?

Back in March, I wrote a piece which wondered if Brian Leonard might be a draft target for Dallas? He was the highest rated FB by far and the Dallas front office was making noise about bolstering the FB position.

We’ll never know where he rated on Dallas’ board but the Cowboys’ 2nd round behavior makes you wonder:

• 50. Giants — WR Steve Smith, USC;
• 51. Rams — FB Brian Leonard, Rutgers;
• 52. Cowboys — trade pick to Cleveland;

Smith was widely rumored to be a Cowboys’ target. Did Dallas have two primo targets snatched from their clutches?

Regardless, we’ll get a good look at Leonard this Sunday. He was Rutgers’ feature back his junior year and moved to fullback to make room for phenom Ray Rice. His selflessness earned Leonard major points with scouts.

It also gave them a peek at his fullback potential. The Rams have been pleased with his blocking so far, but he’ll move back to tailback by default, as Stephen Jackson will miss the game with injured ribs.

Leonard has an all around game. He runs, he blocks, he catches very well. He should be okay. But he’ll need to be better than okay to help get St. Louis’ attack rolling. The Rams were struggling with Jackson in the lineup, though he seemed to be breaking out last week when he got hurt, posting his first 100 yard day of the year.

Scott Linehan has attempted a more balanced, ball-control offense, in comparison to Mike Martz‘ aerial attacks. With his offensive line missing three of its original five starters, the Rams have leaned even more on his running game. He may find that Leonard the running back will mean Leonard the blocker leading his way.

The shoddy pass protection — Marc Bulger was sacked six times by the 49ers in the Rams best offensive showing two weeks ago — has prevented the Rams from taking too many shots down the field. Torry Holt hasn’t lost any of his skills, but brings a pedestrian — for him — 11.7 yard per catch average into the game. His longest catch of the year has covered just 20 yards.

Isaac Bruce has been the bigger play maker but neither has the really bit catch. Dallas will probably use the soft corner play that has worked against Miami and Chicago; the Cowboys may yield 12 and 15 yard passes but they probably feel preventing the 50 or 60 yard play will keep the Rams on a long field.

St. Louis has scored only 32 points all year, so there’s no point in Dallas getting too bold and making things easier for Bulger and his friends.

Summary — The Rams will scrap and they are a better team than they’ve show. However, they’re facing their second consecutive road game after losing two home tilts.

The Rams have had a fatal flaw — they’re soft against the run. The Giants have a horrid secondary but they could slow down the Dallas back and at least test Romo in 3rd and long situations. The Rams will likely have to run blitz to create similar downs.

If they have to cheat safeties up to slow Marion Barber and friends down they’re playing directly into Tony Romo’s and Jason Garrett’s hands.

Dallas 34, St. Louis 14

Fasciitis, Now Tendinitis

Terence Newman is now battling mild patellar tendinitis in addition to plantar fasciitis, according to his coach Wade Phillips.

Newman will still get snaps in the nickel and dime packages against the Rams this weekend.

Jacques Reeves will continue to man the left cornerback spot.

How Much Fun Have You Seen?

I was talking to a friend the other day about the Cowboys. He’s a regular reader of the site. We’re both excited about the start but I told him I was surprised at some of the bitterness I’ve seen on other sites and especially heard on sport talk radio. On Monday there was a parade of Cowboys fans on NFL radio who were gleeful on the one hand and spiteful on the other, sticking figurative knives in Bill Parcells’, Bobby Carpenter’s, Julius Jones’ and Jerry Jones’ backs.

I can understand concern, doubt and apprehension. 3-0 ultimately means little if the momentum isn’t sustained. (Chan Gailey’s ‘99 team started 3-0 and finished 8-8, after all.) But these people were angry. They sounded like those autocrats whose first step upon taking power is to round up their domestic political enemies and line them up before a firing squad. These callers really wanted some sort of toll exacted on their designated “enemies of the Cowboys.”

I asked my guy for an explanation. He theorized that a lot of these fans were probably younger and had seen only the ’90s dynasty or none of it at all. They had become worn down by the losing and frustration of the last decade and had not experienced the ups and downs all good teams go through.

I don’t know if he’s right but he got me thinking. How much of the Cowboys’ storied history have you seen first hand? Our survey this summer showed that the biggest segments of our readership are between 35-45 (38.6%) and 21-34 (38%).

There have been three great Cowboys teams. The first generation Cowboys squad that made eight straight playoff appearances from ‘66 through ‘73 and won Super Bowl 6. The second generation Doomsday, led by the Dirty Dozen draft class of ‘75 made ten playoff appearances between ‘75 and ‘85 and won Super Bow 12.

Jimmy Johnson built Cowboys 3.0, which made eight playoff appearances between ‘91 and ‘99. It also won Super Bowls 27, 28 and 30.

We could be looking at the fourth generation Cowboys juggernaut. I was lucky enough to join the fun for the last half of Landry 1.0. Super Bowl 5 was the first Cowboys game I watched start to finish. Using these categories, that would make me a 4th generation Cowboys fan.

How much of the fun have you seen?

Update: Bobby Carpenter has a torn quad and could miss a month.

– Joey Porter follows Isaac Bruce’s lead and guarantees a win for his 0-3 team.

Chaos Reigns

Last month I wrote about a strange package the Cowboys practiced their last few days in San Antonio that I dubbed “chaos.” Here’s the breakdown:

The eleven on eleven drill brought back a formation I saw on Saturday, but which moved too fast for me to pin down. I don’t know what the Cowboys call it, but the defense worked extensively in a 2-4-5 package I’ll call “chaos.” The top unit had Stephen Bowen and Jay Ratliff as linemen and Demarcus Ware, Bobby Carpenter, Kevin Burnett and Anthony Spencer as linebackers. Behind them, Aaron Glenn joined the regular secondary, playing at left corner while Terence Newman worked the slot.

I call the set chaos because nobody in the front six except Bowen set before the snap. He would line up angled on the center and Ratliff would line up on the opposite side of the line. The linebackers would dance and switch behind the two and Ratliff would make a late adjustment before the snap.

– “Captains of Chaos,” The’Boys Blog, August 6th

Dallas unwrapped a version of chaos for Rex Grossman and the heavy shifting threw Chicago’s play into, well, chaos.

Sunday’s package was a little different because Dallas used Jason Hatcher in Spencer’s place (Hatcher may have been Wade Phillips’ first choice but he was injured the week this package was installed) giving the Dallas front more of a 3-3-5 look. Still, Dallas moved parts around in such a way as to resemble a 2-4-5.

The Cowboys first used chaos on Chicago’s opening drive. The Bears had made a first down in Dallas territory and faced a 3rd and 8 just outside field goal range. Dallas opened with Ware and Hatcher having their hands down, Hatcher at LE and Ware at RE. Bowen, Ratliff, Bradie James and Burnett all moved around inside the two ends, jumping and switching places.

Just before the snap, Ratliff moved into a three point stance as nose tackle. When he did, Ware stood up and moved wide, outside Bears’ LT John Tait. James danced in one A-gap and then dropped into coverage just before the snap. Burnett moved outside Hatcher late. Bowen lined up as a linebacker, between Ware and Ratliff.

Dallas rushed four at the snap, with Ware on the LT and Ratliff, Hatcher and Burnett overloading the right side of Chicago’s line. Bowen took a delayed blitz from his unusual upright position, bowled past LG Ruben Brown and drove his helmet into Grossman’s armpit as the QB threw, forcing a short-armed incompletion. The Bears punted on the next play.

Dallas threw chaos at Grossman again early in the second quarter on a 3rd-and-long near midfield. Dallas went to its camp package, with Carpenter replacing James as the 3rd LB. Ware brought heavy heat from Grossman’s blind side. Hatcher lost RT Fred Miller with a nasty spin move and was bearing down from Grossman’s right. The QB had an extra count but got rid of the ball as quickly as possible, lofting a fade towards a well-covered Rasheed Davis. Terence Newman batted it away.

Phillips threw chaos at Grossman one more time just before the half, using it on three consecutive plays when the Bears were in their two-minute package. On the second play, Chicago called a screen towards Tait’s side, where Ware had been lining up. On this play, however, Ware flopped with Burnett. With the Bears line sliding left, Ware got a free release off the RT side and bore down on Grossman faster than the screen could set up. With Burnett trolling in the passing lane and Ware homing in on him, Grossman threw the pass into the turf two yards in front of Adrian Peterson.

On his last crack at chaos Grossman rushed a slant towards Anthony Henry that the corner jumped and broke up. Henry had the play read from the beginning but Grossman was too harried by the rush to care, getting the pass away as soon as possible. Henry came very close to claiming another INT here.

The first half chaos tally: two pass breakups, two other forced incompletions and an overthrow. Dallas got heavy pressure on Grossman most plays and had him feeling a phantom rush on the others.

The package created consistent pressure. It’s clear that if Terence Newman returns at anything close to 100% the Cowboys can play tighter coverage behind it. Then we’ll see more sacks and picks.

More of this please, Wade.

Update: Blogger Maurizio provides examples of Cowboys Chaos. Thanks!

Domination Days?

Fans of the ’90s Cowboys have several memories of dominating offensive line performances, in games and on individual plays. I can recall three off the top of my head: watching Nate Newton and Derek Kennard roll butterball Packers DT Gabe Wilkins in the ‘96 NFC title game; watching Larry Allen beat Simeon Rice into submission in a ‘98 matchup at Texas Stadium and my personal favorite, watching Mark Tuinei blast Bryant Young back into Ken Norton and ride the stack into the end zone in in the ‘95 NFC Championship game.

I had some deja vu watching this year’s line manhandle the Bears Sunday night. We can get carried away with the hyperbole but take some time if you’ve recorded the game and watch how dominant the line was. Flozell Adams was beaten on Dallas’ first offensive play of the night but a very good Mark Anderson never came close to replicating the feat. Adams got very little chip help and kept the left edge clean.

You would think Flozell’s in a salary drive or something, the way he’s playing. He’s faced Osi Umenyioua, Jason Taylor and Anderson the first three weeks and still looks fresh.

RT Marc Colombo was even better on his edge. Did you ever notice Bears left end Adewale Ogunleye or Alex Brown? That’s because Colombo put them under wraps. He’s taken a big step forward from last year.

C Andre Gurode kept the blitzing Bears ILBs at bay. Lance Briggs tried a delayed move in the 2nd quarter and Gurode stuffed him. Later that quarter, he engaged a blitzing Chicago safety. It wasn’t pretty — for the safety.

LG Kyle Kosier was a pregame concern but he had little difficulty with Bears’ Pro Bowler Tommie Harris, who finished the day with one tackle.

If you want to watch some Larry Allen-like brutality, center in on RG Leonard Davis. Bigg lived up to his name. Offensive line play in today’s game, where lineman can fully extend their hands, is based on reach and punchouts. Davis has a stunning punch. On running plays, he drove the Bears’ linemen laterally and into the turf. Darwin Walker was a frequent victim.

The real howlers come on pass plays. Davis helped Colombo late in the second quarter and caught Ogunleye unprepared. The end flew sideways and landed on his shoulder. It’s an examplar of a “decleater.”

Bigg was equally as dominant vs. Harris. Remember all the pearl clutching and salt smelling one of the Metroplex scribes was doing in camp, warning that Davis was “stuggling” pass blocking? Ask Harris if he’s struggling. Davis faced him at least a dozen times and on every occasion save one the result was the same. Harris would charge upfield, Davis would hit him with two fists just below the armpits and Harris would stagger sideways. Harris beat him one time all game, with a rush low and outside, though Tony Romo was able to sidestep Harris’ lunge with ease.

Bigg gets another test Sunday when he faces LaRoi Glover. If he passes, I think we can declare him a success.

Even the tight ends are getting in on the act. Jason Witten’s wham block on Walker pushed the DT backwards and let Marion Barber get a key first down on a Cowboys’ TD drive. When your ancillary blockers are taking on and beating the biggest lineman on the previously baddest D in all the NFC, domination days may be back.

I Hear Crickets

What happened to all the worry about nose tackle? Where did all the doom sayers who ripped the front office for not simply snapping their fingers and finding the next Jamal Williams? Sure, Dallas signed Tank Williams, but he’s still five or six games away. Isn’t the Dallas running defense still vulnerable? I mean, even Bill Parcells thinks so.

Wade Phillips doesn’t. He’s stood by Jay Ratliff and Sunday’s game showed why. Ratliff clogged up the middle. He faced Olin Kreutz, the NFC’s Pro Bowl center and beat him. When Chicago double teamed him, Ratliff showed good technique, dropped low and clogged up his lane.

When the Bears left him one-on-one, Ratliff walked Kreutz into the backfield.

If Jay Ratliff can handle Olin Kreutz, he can beat just about any center in the league. I’ll say it again. Ratliff got a golden opportunity and he’s making the best of it. A few sacks and people will be talking about him as a unique pass rushing nose guard.

Bill Parcells — The Godfather of Cheap

Tommy Prothro never won a division title as a head coach. He made three NFL stops and always left under a cloud. He was well respected as a talent evaluator and in San Diego, he built the foundation of their winning teams in the late ’70s and early ’80s. From ‘74 until he resigned in ‘78 (after the infamous “Holy Roller” game, where Oakland fumbled the ball forward several times on the final play for a game winning TD) he drafted Fred Dean, Gary Johnson, Louie Kelcher, John Jefferson, Billy Shields, Don Macek and Woody Lowe.

Don Coryell inherited Prothro’s squad, added Kellen Winslow in his first draft and got the Chargers airborne. They never made the Super Bowl but made two AFC title games in the years following Prothro’s departure and were the NFL’s most exciting team during their run.

Prothro was the godfather of the Chargers’ success. He came to mind yesterday when I listened to a bilious Cowboys fan try to tell the NFL Channel’s Pat Kirwan that Dallas’ ‘07 success was the football equivalent of an immaculate conception. When Kirwin asked how much credit he gave Parcells for this team the caller replied, “I give him nothing… Tony Romo was just pure luck…”

Kirwin is an old personnel guy, having worked for the Jets before the Tuna set foot there and he quickly moved to challenge the caller and stick up for the coach. “I remember talking to Parcells three years ago,” he said, “and [Parcells] was telling me then to look out for this kid Romo…”

Dallas had luck getting their hands on Romo. Every other team had a chance to draft him. But Dallas won the recruiting battle once Romo hit the open market and nurtured him perfectly. Some people can argue that Romo should have opened the ‘06 season as the starter but nobody can argue with his play so far; he’ll get his 16th start this Sunday and will get a chance to have the best season-long start in league history.

I want to look beyond Romo at the rest of the Dallas lineup, which bears the Tuna’s stamp. This team is shaping up as his third Prothro, a team he set on a path to long-term success. What sets the Cowboys apart from the ’80s Giants and ’00s Patriots is Parcells’ economy. The caller was quick to rip the Bobby Carpenter selection and Parcells has been justifiably slammed for the Jacob Rogers and Stephen Peterman picks, among others.

That said, turn his draft charts upside down and look at the quality groceries Parcells bought from bargain bins. Romo has been well documented, but look at all of Dallas’ backfield today. You’ve got an undrafted free agent QB tearing up the league. Immediately behind him is undrafted free-agent fullback Oliver Hoyte, who’s already one of the better blockers in the game.

I can hear the gasps: Hoyte’s not in Daryl Johnston’s class! Of course not. But that’s the point. No fullback in today’s NFL compares to the Moose. That’s because colleges, enamored of spread formations, don’t develop them anymore. After watching Lousaka Polite and several other candidates flail, Parcells took a radical step last year and moved Hoyte, an ILB who made the team as a special teams ace to offense. Hoyte was already skilled at blasting wedges. Now, he could tee off on his fellow LBs.

His receiving skills still need work but Hoyte’s aggression is unquestioned. At midpoint last year a scout told me, “Moving Hoyte to fullback was inspired. Hoyte has been Parcells’ best rookie so far this year. He makes train wrecks in the middle of the field.”

And Hoyte didn’t cost Parcells anything but money.

Behind Hoyte is 4th-round RB Marion Barber, who’s evolved into an above average NFL back. Look at the value: Dallas has a quality backfield and spent only a 4th round pick to get it. These guys are Spam and Ranch Style Beans compared to the prime cuts of Aikman and Smith (1st rounders) and Johnston (2nd rounder) but Cowboys fans can’t get enough of them. Jerry Jones will have to back the Brinks truck to Romo’s driveway at some point in the near future but he got a big time ‘06 and may well get a second Pro Bowl season at a Wal-Mart price.

The late round quality doesn’t end there. On the flank, Dallas starts 7th round pick Patrick Crayton. He’s filling in for veteran Terry Glenn, whom Parcells swiped from Green Bay for a 6th round pick.

On defense, Dallas starts 7th rounder Jay Ratliff on the nose. Behind him is 4th rounder Bradie James. 7th rounder Jacques Reeves is grinding away at left corner until Terence Newman, a first round smash, returns and Nate Jones, a fellow ‘04 7th-rounder, manned the slot while Newman was out.

The Tuna liked to tell the press that once a team acquired a player, it didn’t matter where he was drafted. He either could play or he couldn’t. If this team team continues to win big, I think more fans will adopt this position. The touchdowns are not any less tasty nor the wins any less satisfying because they’re being created by back draft bargains. Parcells may have shopped for some groceries at Costco, but Wade Phillips is working them into a gourmet feast.

By the Numbers, Offense, Week 3

Stats updated through game three:

Run Offense vs. Chicago

	Outside Left	OT - Left	Middle (Gs & C)	OT - Right	Outside Rt.
Team YPC	0.0	1.6	7.3	5.7	3.0
Att. - Yds.	0-0	5-8	13-95	3-17	4-12
Jones avg.	0.0	0.0	4.4	0.0	2.0
Jones att./yds.	0-0	0-0	5-22	0-0	2-4
Barber avg.	0.0	1.0	10.7	5.7	4.0
Barber att./yds.	0-0	3-3	7-75	3-17	2-8

The power of a 4th-quarter 54-yard run when the defense is battered. Emmitt Smith used to butt his head against good defenses for 40 or 50 minutes and then hit a big one. Marion Barber pulled an Emmitt in the 4th quarter, following Leonard Davis into the third level of a gassed Bears’ D.

Run Offense — Season

	Outside Left	OT - Left	Middle (Gs & C)	OT - Right	Outside Rt.
Team YPC	6.3	4.7	4.48	6.2	5.8
Att. - Yds.	3-19	17-80	44-197	13-80	11-64
Jones avg.	0.0	4.0	2.79	2.66	5.4
Jones att./yds.	0-0	6-24	24-67	3-8	5-27
Barber avg.	0.0	5.25	6.6	7.9	6.4
Barber att./yds.	1-0	8-42	18-118	9-71	5-32

We’re starting to see Leonard Davis’ effect on the running game. Recall how skewed the averages were to Flozell Adams’ side, last year and through two games. Notice now how the inside numbers have improved (they were much better after Chicago) and how the right side is now slightly more powerful than the left. The sample size is still very small but we can see the benefits of Bigg.

Receivers vs. Chicago

player	attempts	completions	yards	YPA
Terrell Owens	12	8	145	12.1
Patrick Crayton	6	3	27	4.5
Jason Witten	9	6	90	10.0
Sam Hurd	2	1	25	12.5
Anthony Fasano	2	1	3	1.5
Marion Barber	1	1	10	10.0
Julius Jones	2	2	29	14.5
Oliver Hoyte	1	0	0	0.0

Receivers — Season

player	attempts	completions	yards	YPA
Terrell Owens	28	16	329	11.75
Patrick Crayton	11	6	78	7.1
Jason Witten	21	14	233	11.1
Sam Hurd	6	4	93	15.5
Anthony Fasano	4	2	15	3.75
Marion Barber	5	4	41	8.2
Julius Jones	5	4	64	12.8
Tony Curtis	2	1	3.0	1.5
Oliver Hoyte	2	0	0	0.0

We’re starting to see Terry Glenn’s absence a little. He was the 3rd-rated NFL WR in YPA last year, with 10.3. Patrick Crayton is well off that pace. Terrell Owens and Jason Witten are playing at All Pro levels and its scary to think how prolific the offense could be if Glenn returns at even 85% to 90% of his old self.

Sam Hurd continues to rack up big YPAs, as does Julius Jones. Both made the most of their limited throws. They should continue to get big numbers as opposing DCs scramble to slow down Witten and T.O.

Quarterbacks vs. Chicago

player	attempts	yards	YPA	Comp. %	SYPA	INTs
Tony Romo	35	329	9.4	62.3	5.86	1

Quarterbacks - Season

player	attempts	yards	YPA	Comp. %	SYPA	INTs
Tony Romo	88	860	9.77	58.0	5.67	2

Romo bounced back from a so-so Miami game with a headline performance. With Drew Brees staggering only Brett Favre can say he’s in Romo’s address among NFC QBs, though Donovan McNabb appears to be on the rebound.

Romo’s Passing Grid vs. Chicago
(att./comp./yds.)

Distance	Left	Middle	Right
20+ yds.	2-4, 56 yds.	2-4, 66 yds.	2-2, 48 yds.
10-19 yds.	3-6, 43 yds., 1 INT	5-6, 72 yds.	3-4, 32 yds.
1-9 yds.	2-3, 18 yds.	2-2, 12 yds.	3-6, 23 yds.

This was Romo’s most balanced game of the season. He finally got some right side passes to match his left handed performances in games 1 and 2. Note the damage Witten and T.O. did in the intermediate and deep middle. Roy Williams and Ken Hamlin get flack but Adam Archuleta and Danieal Manning are not any better. The proof is right in front of you.

Romo’s Passing Grid — Season
(att./comp./yds.)

Distance	Left	Middle	Right
20+ yds.	5-11, 164 yds.	5-8, 152 yds.	4-6, 124 yds.
10-19 yds.	7-13, 101 yds., 1 INT	10-12, 139 yds.	5-9, 56 yds.,1 INT
1-9 yds.	8-11, 84 yds.	6-7, 59 yds.	3-13, 2 yds.

Your Numbers of the Day

116

– The points scored by the ‘07 Cowboys through three games.

217

– The points scored by Dallas in the entire ‘02 season.

 2

The number of players from that ‘02 offense still playing for Dallas.  Name them.

Bonus question — who was the OC in that forgettable year?

More Fun With Numbers

More, More, More….

How do you like him? How do you like him?

Terrell Owens predicted a 100 catch, 1500 yard, 20 TD season just before the season kicked off. How’s he doing?

Through three games he has 16 catches for 329 yards and three TDs. In other words, he’s on pace to beat his yardage prediction and has a very real chance to make his reception and TD benchmarks. The reason? A gaudy 20.6 yards per reception average.

Jason Garrett is playing deep ball. T.O. is 2nd today in YPC average. Jason Witten has an insane 16.6 YPC.

“But if you want to know, how I really feel,
Get the cameras rolling, Get the action going…”

One Bad Apple Spoils the Bunch

Stats are fun, and stats can be misleading, if you’re ready to made judgements about them. The sample sizes are just too small for any sure conclusions pro or con. I’m watching trends to see if things are going in the right direction but know that one bad game can mess up your world.

I want to address the complaint I’ve read and seen a couple of times today. It goes something like this: “the secondary still scares me. A good QB would rip it to pieces.”

Perhaps, but lets understand something — good QBs or offenses can make good defenses look bad.

Case in point, Dallas vs. Chicago. The Bears entered last night’s game with one of the best run defenses in the game. Their 2.5 yards per attempt average was tops in the game. Their 73.5 yards per game average was third. People looked at the two backs they stopped — LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson — and figured this was the best run stopping unit around.

Then the Cowboys got a crack at them:

Chicago	yds. per att.	YPA rank	yds. per gm.	YPG rank
Games 1-2	2.5	1st	73.5	3rd
after Dallas	3.3	3rd	92.7	12th

Meanwhile, look at how the less heralded Dallas defense looks:

Dallas	yds. per att.	YPA rank	yds. per gm.	YPG rank
Games 1-2	4.3	22nd	92.5	11th
after Chicago	3.9	13th	86.7	8th

That’s right, folks. Today the Cowboys have a higher ranked run defense than the Bears. And it flipped in just one week.

Which gets me to the original argument. Of course a great QB would rack up yards on the Dallas D. They rack up yards on everybody. That’s the definition of being a great QB. Do you think the Cowboys slam dunked Peyton Manning last year? No. He still made big plays. Marvin Harrison caught a bomb. Reggie Wayne caught 111 yards worth of passes and the Colts runners had a good day.

Dallas’ defense did just enough to slow him down. They sacked Manning one more time than normal. They forced an extra turnover than the Colts normally made. They made a key stop on downs inside their ten.

And that’s exactly what they’ll have to do if they want to beat Tom Brady in three weeks, throw in enough snags to give their offense a chance.

And this time Dallas has one of those big time QBs on their side. Just look at what Tony Romo and his buddies did to Chicago last night as proof. The Bears didn’t become a bad defense overnight. They just ran into one of those QBs and offenses that can make anybody look foolish.

Separation Sunday — the Bottom View

Their Hearts Grew Two Sizes That Day

Nine 0-2 teams entered play yesterday. One of them was guaranteed a win, because the winless Jets and Dolphins were facing off.

The Jets won. And so did four others. The Raiders used the same hoodoo the Broncos used on them a week ago, freezing Browns kicker Phil Dawson and then blocking his kick in the final seconds.

The Chiefs came back late and knocked off Minnesota. The Giants rallied from a 17-3 halftime deficit,winning the second half against Washington 21-0. Their maligned defense made a goal line stand in the final minute.

The biggest winner among the former losers was the Eagles, who destroyed the Lions.

So who’s now an official bad team? Round up the 0-3s — the Bills, Dolphins, Rams and Falcons. The Rams and Bills are on Dallas’ schedule the next two weeks.

And I can’t say they’ll all truly bad. Buffalo lost at the gun vs. Denver, playing with the shock of Kevin Everett’s neck injury. The last two weeks have seen them on the road at Pittsburgh and New England. Their beaten up, losing J.P. Losman to a nasty knee injury and Paul Poslusny to a broken arm. Losman will miss the Cowboys’ game in two weeks.

The Dolphins have an overtime loss to Washington and a three point loss on the road to the Jets. The Cowboys are the one team to really thump them.

The Rams are trying but injuries have wiped out their offensive line. LT Orlando Pace is out for the year, and their LG was injured yesterday.

That said, they’re sticking with their game plan. They’re running Stephen Jackson, who’s averaging 23 carries a game and who gained 105 rushing yards yesterday. They’re moving the ball.

But they’re self-destructing in the red zone. They’re missing field goals. As a consequence they’re averaging just 11 points a game. They don’t have the defense to play close to the vest games but they don’t have the pass protection to air it out as they did in the Mike Martz days.

They’re a dangerous team, if Dallas lets down.

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