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Monday Housecleaning

– The Cowboys pick, obtained from Cleveland, will be the 22nd overall. Still, not bad. I’m sticking with my original prediction, that Dallas goes cornerback with this pick, though wide receiver could also factor. T.O. and Patrick Crayton are under contract. Sam Hurd looks like a good #4. Where’s the speedy wideout to replace Terry Glenn?

That said, I look for free agency to scratch that itch. D-back baby.

– Dallas plays the NFC West and the AFC North next year. Being first place finishers they also draw the top seeds in the NFC North (Green Bay) and the South (Tampa Bay). Therefore:

• Home — Giants, Eagles, Redskins, Bucs, Seahawks, 49ers, Bengals, Ravens;
• Away — Giants, Eagles, Redskins, Packers, Cards, Rams, Steelers, Browns;

We’re going to see Dallas in some late season, cold weather games, possibly Lambeau Field, Heinz Field and in Cleveland.

We’ll also see some team that rarely come to Texas Stadium, like the Seahawks, Bengals and Ravens.  I don’t think the Baltimore Ravens have ever played in Dallas.

Browns Watch

Update:  The Titans pull out a 16-10 win on the cool leadership of, drumroll please, Kerry Collins, who subs for an injured Vince Young.   Cleveland, at 10-6 should get the highest non-playoff draft slot.

The Titans hold a 7-3 halftime lead. The Colts are resting all key starters — no Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark or Joseph Addai. Reggie Wayne played until he passed Randy Moss as the NFL receiving yardage leader, then got the hook.

If Vince Young and Co. hold on, they get the final AFC playoff spot and bounce Cleveland and hence Dallas to the 20th pick.

If the Titans win, they leave Indy at 13-3 and Dallas in the 31st spot with their pick.

This Game Means Nothing, Reason 37

Flashback — Dallas beats the Redskins at midseason.  Why?

Because Jason Garrett had Terrell Owens going nuts in the middle of the field.  He had four TDs that day, and three of them came when he motioned into the middle of the field and torched linebackers or safeties.

Was T.O. playing today?  No.  Dallas’ top matchup nightmare was gone.  And even then Miles Austin had a chance to get some big highlight plays, and dropped two TD passes.

Pro Bowl wide receivers have value.  You saw exhibit A today.

Now, let’s consider another very important factor.  The Vikings lost today.  Washington would have made the playoffs even if Dallas beat them.

Why load up, create a special menu game plan that can expose them and then have its surprise value lost to you if the Redskins beat Seattle and come to Dallas in two weeks time?  How stupid will the OC and DC feel having wasted special blitzes, coverage packages, etc. on a meaningless game, and then making their playoff week that much harder?

What’s that Robert Johnson line, “if you cry for a nickel you’ll die for a dime?”

This game was a nickel in terms of value.  It gets Dallas no closer to the Super Bowl.  It can only serve to diminish the team’s chances if it wasted vital strategic secrets and/or got key people hurt.

Washington has to travel cross country, to play on Saturday, against a Seattle team that rested a lot of key people today and hence lost to Atlanta.  Who’s going to be better prepared for the short week?

What Do We Know? Redskins Edition

So Dallas goes 13-3 with two of the losses in the division — to Washington and Philly — and to the Pats.  Would you have thrown this offer back if offered in September?

Now, that said, the game sucked eggs.  Here are some notes we can pin to our bulletin boards:

1.  Dallas misses Terence Newman.  You think he would have been turned like Jacques Reeves was today?

1a.  Any question that one of those two #1 picks next year is for a cornerback?  We’ve only been saying there here since, what, August?  Coverage shortcomings are keeping the Dallas defense from taking the next step.  And while Reeves has become better this year, he’s a four year veteran.  He is what he is.

2.  The Redskins fear Demarcus Ware.  When Ware was left alone against Chris Samuels, he put the OT on his back and stripped the ball from Todd Collins.  I don’t think Washington ever went another passing attempt without giving Samuels help.

3.  The Cowboys miss T.O.  Where was the passing attack without him?  Sam Hurd made a couple of catches in the deep zones, but the Redskins rolled their coverage short.  Miles Austin?  Great speed, manos de piedra.   He let two TDs slip through his fingers.

4.  Terry Glenn gets an incomplete.  He was undercut and flipped onto his back in the first quarter.  He left the game and never returned.

5.  Roy Williams — how many times did he make the tackle on a Redskins 3rd down conversion?   He’s iffy now.  What’s David Fulcher’s son going to do when he loses a gear?

6.  Dallas played a funky 3-5-3 scheme late in the game with Washington running the ball.

Cowboys @ Redskins 2nd Half Thread

Why is anybody surprised that the Cowboys offense looks flat?  T.O.’s out.  Gurode’s out and Jason Witten has dropped every pass his way.   Tony Romo has shortarmed open receivers.

They’ve got nothing to play for and it shows.

Cowboys @ Redskins 1st Half Thread

I’ll be out most of the day, so start your tailgating reeeeal early.

McFadden the Misleading

will-o’-the-wisp    /?w?l?ð??w?sp/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronun[wil-uh-thuh-wisp] –noun

1. anything that deludes or misleads by luring on.
2. the unceasing Darren McFadden-to-Dallas fantasies.

I’d like to know what the McFadden fantasists have against Marion Barber?  Oh, I know the argument.  McFadden could be Adrian Peterson class and would be an upgrade over Barber.  And Dallas’ two #1 picks would give them the ammunition to move up to say the 7th or 8th spot should McFadden slide, as Peterson did last year.

But there’s the matter of what to do with Barber?  He just made the Pro Bowl.  He’s due a shot at the starting spot next year.  He’s also due a big contract.

Is Dallas going to pay him big money and then pay even bigger coin in picks and salary to get an upgrade over Julius Jones? Because that’s what it would take.  Barber would need to be re-upped before the April draft, since free agency starts in March and there’s no guarantee that McFadden would fall.

Do you then insult Barber by lavishing bigger money on a guy who hasn’t proven a thing?  Do you then keep Barber as the highest paid rotation runner because it makes no sense to keep a top seven or eight pick on the bench?  Do you really think Barber won’t see this as a slap in the face?  That he’ll accept it without hurt or complaint?  Do you risk “making your money unhappy,” one of Jerry Jones‘ biggest no-nos?

And if you do all this, who’s that bonafide 2nd round cornerback you’re gonna get?  After spending all that money to fix a position that isn’t broken, you’re looking at a defense that still needs a young cornerback.  Or do the McFaddenites have that much confidence in Alan Ball?

The Cowboys defense is good but it’s not dominating.  Put a top cover guy opposite Terence Newman and you can dream of domination.  You can then spend the second #1, the second or even the third round pick to find a speedy complement to Barber, who’s a 4th rounder himself.  The key is finding an upgrade for Jones, and those can be found somewhere on the first day, and even later.

McFadden, to my eyes, causes many more problems than he solves.   I’m hoping he goes high and keeps fellow Razorback Jerry Jones from losing his cool.

Who’s Legit?

Looking at the playoff rolls I think the Super Bowl field is pretty short, though not as short as folks might think. Using my formula of scoring offenses and scoring defenses (over 90% of Super Bowl teams ranked in the top ten in scoring offense and defense) and only one champion, the ‘06 Colts, had a defense ranked lower than 12th in scoring defense, I’m paring the field.

AFC

The experts peg this as a two team race, but by my schema, nearly every AFC team has a shot, however modest. Consider:

The Top Tier

1. Patriots (1st offense, 2nd defense)

Their elderly defense looked shaky against the Eagles and Ravens, but has bounced back nicely. It’s hard to argue with top two offensive and defensive scoring records. However…

2. Colts (3rd offense, 4th defense)

How close are the Colts to 15-0? This close — Peyton Manning threw six picks against the Chargers, yet the Colts only lost 23-21 because Adam Vinatieri missed a 29 yard field goal in the last two minutes. They had the Pats right where they wanted them down 20-10 at home. Then their receiving corps fell apart.

Indy had a perfect game plan — spread the Pats secondary and them hammer Joseph Addai. He averaged nearly 7 yards a carry in the first half and could not be stopped rushing or receiving. But when Anthony Gonzalez went down early in the second half, the Pats defended the run, doubling Dallas Clark and stacking the line for Addai. (Marvin Harrison didn’t dress that day.)  When Manning needed game-icing first downs in the 4th quarter he was throwing to guys like Aubrey Moorehead, who let him down.

Imagine Dallas trying to protect a 4th quarter lead with T.O. and Patrick Crayton on the bench and you get the idea. This year’s Colts are much better than last year’s champs and I would not be at all surprised if they repeated.

Second Tier, but Still a Threat

3. Jaguars — (5th offense, 6th defense)

Top ten in both categories and they’re on a roll, winning six of their last seven, including an impressive win in Pittsburgh where they outslugged the Steelers. They’ll likely play San Diego in the first round, a team they’ve beaten already. That would send them to Indy, however. The Colts swept them this year, though the second game was a 28-25 grinder.

4. Steelers — (8th offense, 3rd defense)

A fourth AFC team to achieve the double dip. But the Steelers have looked poor against top teams lately. The Pats didn’t look too troubled beating them and the Jags beat them up. Losing Willie Parker hurts them.

5. Chargers — (6th offense, 7th defense)

How about that? Five AFC teams in the top ten in offensive and scoring defense. The Chargers have rebounded nicely after a slow start but they were outmanned against the Pats and the Colts had them on the run in the second half. I don’t trust Philip Rivers this year.

NFC

The Top Tier

1. Dallas (2nd offense, 12th defense)

The defense has risen steadily in the scoring category and now stands just outside the top ten. Having healthy starting corners makes all the difference in the world. So would a healthy T.O. and Andre Gurode.

2. Green Bay (4th offense, 8th defense)

Still legit, despite their blowout in Chicago.

3. Seattle (11th offense, 5th defense)

Don’t discount these guys, who have been Dallas in reverse. Their injuries were on the offensive side of the ball and now they’re on a roll, winning six of seven. They’ll likely beat whichever of Washington or Minnesota comes to visit them, setting up a Mike Holmgren homecoming — Seattle at Green Bay in the divisional round. His last playoff trip ended when Matt Hasselbeck predicted they would win, then threw the game deciding pick in overtime.

Again, don’t overlook them. They’ve got a good defense and have beaten Dallas twice in recent years, though both were close games played in Seattle.

Dark Horse

4. Tampa Bay (18th offense, 1st defense)

Defense matters and Tampa’s is salty, though their offense looks very pedestrian. And they would have to win two games on the road, where they are 3-5 this year.

Others

• Giants (14th offense, 14th defense)
• Redskins (19th offense, 13th defense)
• Vikings (12th offense, 10th defense)

The Vikings look respectable, though they need help to get into the playoffs. They look like a strong bet for ‘08, if they can find a better quarterback.

Overall, the AFC looks rather tight, though I still think it’s between the Pats and Colts. Then again, who thought the Colts would win last year? With so much quality conference wide, it will only take one upset to make the dominoes fall, as New England’s upset of San Diego last year opened the field.

In the NFC, I give Dallas a tiny edge over Green Bay and Seattle, because they’re going to be at home. But it’s a razor thin edge.

What About the Defense?

All the speculation about the Cowboys’ play Sunday focuses on the offense, which will be shorthanded a fair amount of the time. T.O. won’t play. Terry Glenn might make an appearance, but he’s not going four quarters. Neither will Tony Romo, if he plays at all.

Consequently, many people feel the Cowboys have no chance and with some cause. I recall the ‘96 Cowboys were in the exact same position. They had locked up the 3rd NFC seed and had nothing to play for when they visited Washington for the season finale. The Redskins had a shot at a playoff berth with a win.

Dallas started Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin, then pulled them after a series.  In came Wade Wilson, Hershel Walker and Kelvin Martin.

The final was Redskins 37, Cowboys 10. It didn’t faze the vets, who pasted Minnesota 40-15 the following week.

Lost in all this is the defense’s role this weekend. We know points will be much harder to come by with Brad Johnson at the controls and Sam Hurd playing in T.O.’s place. (On the other hand, can Johnson be any worse than Tarvaris Jackson was Sunday night?) But the defense has some pride. They can finish in the top 10 in yardage and scoring defense with a solid Sunday. They’re playing Todd Collins, who’s, how do you say, sackable.

The secondary had one of, if not its worst game against Jason Campbell earlier this year. The corners played soft, slipped and according to their head coach, blew a lot of routine coverages.

If pride matters, these guys should play better this time, keep the game competitive and give the backups on offense a fighting chance.

Important Auditions Sunday Afternoon

One of Bill Parcells’ first significant moves upon taking over Dallas in 2003 and was re-signing free agent to be Flozell Adams to a five year deal. Though criticized at the time, it turned into a good investment; Adams is having a typical salary drive year, earning a Pro Bowl starting spot this season.

Which will bring the Cowboys to another key decision this offseason. Adams is on the verge of testing the market and might not want to give the Cowboys negotiating exclusivity. This will almost certainly be his final deal and with Parcells now running the Dolphins operation, Adams is assured at least one major suitor outside of the Metroplex.

That means the Cowboys should use some of Sunday’s finale with the Redskins to give third year man Pat McQuistan some heavy reps at left tackle. The seventh rounder has earned some plays at both tackle spots this year but nothing extensive.

Washington will be going all out to win, as their playoff lives depend on beating Dallas. McQuistan would therefore be assured of seeing “live bullets” and if he showed well, the Cowboys could entertain spending their free agent money on other spots. If he performs poorly, they would know that Adams should be a strong sell from Jerry and Stephen Jones.

Wade Phillips has said he will start key players and try to win the game, so I expect Adams to open if Tony Romo gets the start. If Romo gets a quick hook, after a series, a quarter or a half, look for McQuistan to take the field.

A lot of money could be riding on his performance.

– Backup C Cory Proctor should get his second start, with Andre Gurode rehabbing an injured knee. He’s another young linemen with a lot at stake. Proctor had a mixed performance against Carolina. When the Panthers went with even fronts, Proctor was quick out onto linebackers and could block in space. He also was efficient with the shotgun snap.

When the Panthers lined a tackle over him or on a slant, Proctor was often overpowered. Kris Jenkins pushed Proctor backwards on several running plays and embarrassed Proctor with a swim move on a first down pass play.

Merry Christmas Everyone

from Raul and me here at The ‘Boys Blog. A special holiday greeting to those of you reading overseas. I see quite a few hits from far flung places. If you’re serving somewhere far away this holiday, stay safe. We’re thinking about you.

Since there’s nothing going on, check back in later. I do have a couple of new posts in the works.

Would we let you down?

How Do I Like Me Now?

Not very much at the moment.

Before the season, I made my playoff predictions based on what I called the “fantastic four” theory of team churn. I pointed out that there has been an average of four teams that went from being losers the previous season to playoff teams the following season. In the seven seasons between 2000 and 2006 there were four losers to playoffs in five seasons; there were five losers to playoffs in one and three in another. A clean total of 28 teams or four per season.

This year, we could see just two such jumps, the lowest total ever. In the NFC, the Bucs jumped from 4-12 in ‘06 to the ‘07 South title. Either the Redskins or Vikings will make the second jump.

In the AFC, the Browns have a chance to be the third jumper, if the Colts can stop Tennessee.

The reason I push the theory is to counter the pre-season magazines, which more often that not carry over the playoff teams from the previous year. I want to show that parity constantly churns the playoff rosters. And parity worked again. Only four of last season’s divisional champs (New England, Indy, San Diego and Seattle) and six of the twelve ‘06 playoff teams (N.E, Indy, S.D., Seattle, Dallas and the Giants) repeated.

So what threw my theory off this year? The fact that three 8-8 teams that missed the playoff last year (Jacksonville, Green Bay and Pittsburgh) qualified this year. If the Titans win this week that will mean four .500 teams made the jump.

So I guess we can call ‘07 the year of mild churn, where fewer teams made the big jump and more made the modest move.

And for what it’s worth I did pick the Redskins to be one of the big jumpers.  I also picked Detroit and (swallows hard) Miami to be new playoff teams.

What Do We Know?

1. The NFC field is almost filled. Five teams are in — Dallas and Green Bay have the top and second seeds. Seattle and Tampa Bay have the other divisions sewed up. The Giants are in. Minnesota can zero in on the last seed if it beats Washington tonight.

If so, we’re looking at Seattle hosting Minnesota and Tampa Bay hosting the Giants in the initial NFC round. Dallas would draw the lowest seed to emerge the following week, meaning rematches with the Vikings or Giants or a first meeting with the Bucs.

2. Browns watch — The Titans hold the 6th AFC seed at this minute and control their fate. They beat the Colts next week and their in.

There’s the sticky business of beating the Colts, who like Dallas are 13-2. Indy, however, has nothing to play for, guaranteed the second seed. Will they sit key starters and give the Titans a chance? We can hope so. Missing the playoffs could push the Browns pick as high as 20th.

Ho, Ho, Ho! The Bears Gift Dallas The Top NFC Seed

Update III: The Bengals overcome themselves to beat the Browns 19-14. A Titans win over the Jets pulls them even with Cleveland in record and leaves them a half game behind in conference record. I don’t know who has the tie breaker edge if the Titans win out. Cleveland plays the 49ers at home next week but may no longer own their own destiny.

Update II: Say hello to the number one seed. Brian Urlacher returns a pick for a TD. It’s now 35-7 Bears with just over ten minutes to go. The Packers are done.

Update: It’s now 28-7 Chicago after the Bears block a punt and return it for a TD.

Chicago 13-7 over Green Bay at the half. A Bears win and the Cowboys clinch home field throughout the NFC playoffs.

Cowboys @ Panthers 2nd Half Thread

Dallas goes to 13-2 and has a chance to set a team record for wins next week versus Washington.

0:00 — Romo kneels down three times.  Final — Cowboys 20, Panthers 13.

1:42 — Barber cuts back right and gets a second first down, forcing Carolina to use their final time out.

2:00 — Two Barber runs gain ten yards.

2:55 — Carolina fakes an onside kick, keeps deep and tackles Crayton at the Dallas 13.

3:04 — Moore throws incomplete on 3rd and goal. Kasay’s short FG attempt is good. Dallas 20, Carolina 13.

3:50 — Tank Johnson blasts Matt Moore for a loss and is flagged for roughing the passer on a helmet-to-helmet hit.

3:54 — Steve Smith makes a 54 yard reception to the Dallas 9 on 4th and 9. Smith is injured on the play.

5:05 — Romo misses Barber running a swing up the left sideline. Punt returned to the Carolina 31.

8:12 – Carolina returns the kickoff to its 27.

8:17 — Nick Folk hits a short field goal. Dallas 20, Carolina 10.

8:45 — Barber runs a draw on 3rd and 4 and is caught after a one yard gain.

10:00 – Julius Jones follows Kyle Kosier right to the 8.

10:45 — A slant to Sam Hurd gets a1st to the Carolina 11.

11:27 — Patrick Crayton gets 16 of the 20 on 1st down.

11:45 — A Cory Proctor hold wipes out a 13 yard Julius Jones‘ run.

12:20 — Romo beats an right edge rush and scrambes for a 1st at the Panthers’ 30.

13:24 — Jacques Reeves breaks up a deep pass from the end zone. Carolina punts from deep and Crayton returns the ball to the Panthers’ 42.

14:10 – Romo forces a flat pass to Crayton running a post. The throw is picked off at the Panthers’ 3.

14:45 – Romo pitches a tent in the pocket, hits Hurd on a crossing route and watches the WR struggle for 13 on 3rd and 9.

4th Quarter

0:00 — Romo converts 3rd and 3 with a dumpoff to Barber, moving into Panthers’ territory just before the quarter ends. Losing your big receiver hurts. The Panthers are doubling Witten and playing safeties closer to the box to stuff the run.

4:09 — Kevin Burnett forces an Inc. off a blitz. Carolina got one first down after Dallas punted from midfield. Carolina has to punt a second time after a penalty. Crayton returns to the Dallas’ 27.

7:52 — Miles Austin takes the kickoff to the Dallas 43.

8:00 — Carolina starts at its own 40. Moore converts three first downs to Steve Smith and a D’Angelo Williams run leaves the Panthers 2nd and goal at the two. But a false start penalty and back to back sacks by Ratliff and Ellis push Carolina back 20 yards. John Kasay’s kick is good.

Dallas 17, Carolina 10.

Injury update: T.O. — high ankle sprain is the original report. Jay Ratliff and Terence Newman are back on the Cowboys’ bench.

Newman and Ratliff are both playing.

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