Cowboys @ Panthers Preview
Posted: December 21, 2007 @ 1:33 pm
Can Dallas bounce back? Is Tony Romo’s thumb well? We’ll find out a day early when the Cowboys travel to Carolina Saturday night. Find your local sports bar or your buddy with satellite programming. This one’s on the NFL Network, as the Packers game was.
When Carolina Has The Ball
Cowboys’ castoff Matt Moore will make his second career start against his old team. When I saw him in camp, I saw a guy with a strong arm, sure delivery but some softness to his accuracy. His first start against Seattle was typical of a first time starter’s game.
Carolina called about a 55/45% run-pass mix. So option one will be stopping the run. The Panthers don’t want to put the game on Moore’s shoulders, so the Cowboys should expect some heavy running on first and second downs. The Panthers are using a platoon system similar to the Cowboys’ with D’Angelo Williams and Deshaun Foster splitting the carries.
The Cowboys, as we know, play better in pursuit. The Lions and the Eagles have had some success running zone blocking plays at the Cowboys triad of Jay Ratliff, Akin Ayodele and Bradie James. The ILBs in particular have had some difficulty disengating from guards when the action comes right at them.
A key to stopping inside runs will be Keith Davis. He’s getting the start at SS in place of suspended Roy Williams, as the Cowboys are leaving Ken Hamlin at FS. This seems like a smart move. Replacing Hamlin leaves Dallas at risk of giving up the big play, something they have avoided for the most part this year. What’s more, Davis is far better in run support than he is as a cover guy. He’s a smaller version of Roy Williams, so SS plays to his strengths.
Another reason to leave Hamlin deep is that Carolina throws almost exclusively to its wide receivers. It lacks a real tight end threat and Moore only uses his backs as a last resort. The key to stopping the Panthers passing attack is simple — slow down Steve Smith. In years past, Dallas would put Terence Newman on Smith and give him help over the top. I look for more of the same tomorrow.
Take away Moore’s primary and force him to go through his progressions and the Cowboys will have opportunties to sack him or force errant throws. He’s smart, but he’s not the most mobile guy. Dallas used a lot of press coverage against Donovan McNabb last week and I look for more pressure.
When the Cowboys Have the Ball
Run it, boys. Seattle got in trouble last week by abandoning the run, giving only 11 carries to Shawn Alexander and friends, while giving Matt Hasselbeck 41 attempts. Sound familiar? Look at the play scripts from the Eagles’ loss. Too many throws by a sore-thumbed Romo and not enough attempts for Marion Barber and Julius Jones.
The reasons are understandable. Jason Garrett’s calls were getting guys open — repeatedly. Tony Romo simply could not make the throws he has all year. Dallas had multiple opportunties for a quick strike but could not excute.
We may see a more deliberate approach this week because the Panthers are not a heavy blitzing team. When healthy they rely on their front four to generate a rush and play a lot of zone behind it.
This could mean a replay of the Lions play sheet, when Romo made heavy use of his tight ends and backs as targets, as the Lions worked to take Terrell Owens’ big plays away. The Panthers don’t score a lot so they cannot get into a shootout with the Cowboys. A bend-bit-don’t-break approach will likely be Carolina’s.
Romo can eat up opponents who try this — if he’s healthy. I’ve seen very little on his thumb. If he opens spraying the ball, as he did last week, we could be in for a long evening.
Prediction:
The Panthers are 2-6 in their last eight games. They’ve topped 13 points just twice in that span, once when they scored 17 points in a 31-17 loss to Green Bay and 31 in a blowout win over the 49ers. They’re averaging 12.5 points since their bye.
Carolina does not score points. The Cowboys defense should be able to contain them. Carolina’s hope of winning will hinge on holding Dallas well under their season total. The Panthers held the Seahawks down last week and upset them 13-10. With Tony Romo’s thumb out of sorts, this is a concern. Carolina has a good defense and can hold an opponent down at home.
It does appear, however, that Julius Peppers will not play, and will not be near full strength if he manages to make the field.
Romo had his choice of receivers last week. It was not a matter of finding open targets, but of getting them the ball. The Panthers are not a big blitzing team and I think that Romo will get the time he needs to make his throws.
Don’t be surprised if the game is close at half of even after three quarters. Dallas blew open a one point game last year in the 4th and cruised to to 35-14 win. We could be looking at another such game on a short week.
Dallas 27 — Carolina 13
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My FIRST game to watch in person was terrible…Hopefully this one will be better.
That was against the eagles last week.
Raf
I can’t believe the blog doesn’t have over 1,000,000 members by now. Cowboy fans and non-Cowboy fans alike. You can’t find stuff this good hardly anywhere. Keep it up
I would not be concerned if Brad johnson came in and worked the second half. He has a good arm and the veteran mentality to not make game losing mistakes.
Fewer hits on Romo’s thumb is better for the playoff games.
So either we get 2 TDs ahead, or Tony is not able to throw accurately and I would cheer for a Brad Johnson half behind center.
I see us running more than 50% of the plays for the first time this year.
I wonder what is up with Hamlin wearing Roy Williams jersey number 31 at Thursday’s practice?
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7588778?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=5
A few weeks ago I posted that I thought based on our schedule the we would be in a funkk for the Detroit game. With talk and hype I got talked out of it. I have a therory that you can only peak for so may weeks and then you are due to fall off and begin working towards another peak. I think these funks that teams go into are about 3 games where they are noticable. 1) you see them falling off(Lions)2)bottom out(eagles)3)climb out. I think we will win this game but its a climbing out game. We will play better and will start to get on our next roll. I kinda wished we had 3 games left to really hit our stride before the playoffs but it doesnt always work out perfect. I also worry about geting back in stride and then taking a week off(bye).
With the injuries we have it will be hard to tell but I think we play better but not what we expect. We should see the funk behind us and some good signs of us getting on a new roll. Playing the Panthers is probably just what the Dr. ordered.
they better get their $hit together and start playing well again. The last couple of games have been horrendous!!!…December is not exactly the month to stink it up.
Kill Carolina, bury Washington and bring on the Bucs!!!…
OK, admit it… Tex was dead on about Bill Parcells. This guy is a snake in the grass, who can be trusted about as far as Gramatica could throw the obese coach.
Deion said it best… “how can a guy go through 7 organizations and not get fired? - He is a Quitter.”
Same old song and dance from Mrs. Doubtfire. Interviewing for the NY Giants job before a divisional game while employed by the Cowboys. Playing a down-and-out Arthur Blank for some more $$$ in Miami.
Addition by Subtraction for the Cowboys, the proof is in the puddin’.
Bill Parcells… the Worst Person of the Year, 2007.
Deion said that? That pompous a-hole burned through five himself.
Takes one to know one.
Squid,
Last thing I’d worry about is a bye. Biggest thing to shoot for before the season begins is a bye.
There is a natural tendancy to relax (or let down a bit) after winning an emotionally charged game in the NFL. I recall in 1992 - late in the season Dallas beat a Bronco team that was undefeated at Mile High (I think they were 7-0). The way the Cowboys came back against this desperate team (the Broncos were in the playoff hunt and needed a win), in an extremely hostile environment - gave me an indication that the 92 Dallas team was ready to make a playoff run. After the win, the following week …. they lost … they were flat. It happens. As we all know that Dallas team went on to dominate in the playoffs and win their first of 3 Super Bowls. When you compare to the 2007 version, Dallas played Green Bay for all the marbles, and came out flying. Then came out flat in two games with much less significance. It happens.
I am starting to see things out of this defense that I really like. In my opinion Dallas can have a defense muh like Chicago’s last season if they continue to pressure opposing QBs. Heading into the playoffs, they are turning that corner. I saw them pressure McNabb (who plays behind a good offensive line) and thought “who in the NFC playoffs has a quartback that can move as well as McNabb?” If Dallas can continue to put pressure on QBs, it will lead to turnovers and defensive points in the playoffs. With that offense, I say bring on the Patriots .. bring on the AFC!!!
Eric, I had forgotten about the Denver game and that was a very young team that had a first round bye. Im thinking in terms of rythmm and confidence, the 2 biggest things after talent. I think we will be ready but I sure wish we would get clicking ASAP.
I hope your right about the D. I have felt all along that it was a full season process. You become a kick ass D when you not only know what your to do but what everyone else is suppopse to be doing. I also wondered at times if SOB toned a few things down to keep them hidden or maybe to work on some weaknesses.
Just heard Bill Parcells say something about young QB’s, and he referenced Romo, that I thought was a pretty good breakdown on young QB’s. Not word for word but close:
“It’s the ability to put bad games behind you. That’s something that Tony Romo has. The strong will to go forward that separates the really good QB’s from the ones that don’t make it to the top. The mental ability to dismiss bad things, learn from them so they’re not repetitive and then go forward. Knowing full well there’s going to be another day when something similar happens but it’s going to be a different set of circumstances that makes that similarity happen. If you’re not making the same exact mistake but you’re just going through and learning as you go, you can continue to make mistakes but as long as they’re not the same mistakes, then you’re going to be improving as a player.”
He said one more thing but my DVR ran out of time and I didn’t catch it but what he said kind of struck me because of the way it reminds me of what we’ve seen from Romo this year and last.
I’m with ManTab. If these guys go out tomorrow night and play heads up football and spank this inferior team decisively like good teams do, we’re all good.
But if they play heads up ass football like they have since about halftime with Green Bay, I see a repeat of last year. Torch me all you want, but I had to spend all week with Bird fans. Hey Boys: CLEATS ON THROATS!
My last opine on the Philthy game. Rafael had it right, I kinda thought they might.
Let’s get one thing straight. The Iggles were one of 5 teams that ranked top 10 in both O & D. They were not a bad team. Secondly, they’re a division opponent in the best division in football (this year and most any other) in the history of the NFL. There’s a reason only two teams have ever swept the division.
We are not in a swoon.
We are not suddenly a bad team.
All this “whoa is me, fighter, I’m scared” crap is just that. Much ado about nothing.
So we have to win the last two to get home field. Anyone (besides me) predict THAT in July?
Don’t worry, be happy!
boom baby…
Before the Eagles game I predicted correctly that they would try a flea flicker on one of their first 2 drives, as a result of what happened in the Detroit game.
Luckily our safeties didn’t fall for it.
Unfortunately, it’s just as easy to predict for this game that Carolina will score at least one sp. teams touchdown, because of the injuries we’ve had and a domino effect.
It’s also pretty easy to predict that our overrated running game is not going to suddenly improve with Gurode out.
By the way, where are all these huge holes Leonard Davis is supposed to be opening up in his Pro Bowl season?
No prediction for a score, but I got burned when I expected them to blow out the Lions.
Not feeling real confident, and I don’t want to hear a bunch of lame excuses about our injuries if we lose. Other teams have lost a lot more than we have. Carolina is playing a free agent QB making his 2nd start ever!
Last week I said the Philly game would tell us if our D was really declining, and the answer was no. But this game for me tells me if the Cowboys as a whole are going to put it together, or choke again like last year.
Are they still the best team in the NFC, a top team in the league?
Or did they peak too soon and are again going to just be another playoff team?
They should blow this team out, and if they don’t then I don’t think they’re ready to go all the way.
If they can get back to playing at a high level, then we’ve got a chance once the playoffs start.
I remember Bill Parcells giving his 10 commandments for quarterback play.
I think Romo has done an outstanding job with the first ten. However, I think he needs to take another look at number 11, and I’ll explain why.
Galloway scored some points when he referenced the 11th commandment in a recent article when talking about Romo. I have to give him credit for making me think about number 11 and why Parcells listed it. Here is # 11:
“Don’t be a celebrity quarterback. We don’t need that. We need battlefield commanders who will fight it day to day, weeklong and seasonlong, and lead us to win after win after win after win”.
Bill Parcells
Tony Romo has been that battlefield commander who has lead the Cowboys to win after win after win, and he has done it while being linked to a couple of Hollywood starlets. He has done it while taking an off day to fly to Los Angeles and have a good time. Romo has been in the Hollywood tabloids. So what. Dallas is 12-2, Romo is playing like an MVP, right. Romo is an extremely hard worker who takes his craft seriously. Jessica Simpson didn’t make Romo play bad. After all, she attended the Packers and Jets games and Romo did very well. Simpson’s presence on television showing off her pink # 9 jersey can’t hurt the team’s perception of Tony Romo’s leadership. Not so fast my friend.
Simpson Gate or “that” has been a distraction in the Cowboys’ lockerroom this week, and Simpson’s camera antics and her presence alone on camera has been used against Tony Romo’s credibility as a leader. I’ll explain.
I don’t know if Tony Romo was distracted by his relationship with Simpson during the week of preparation. The common fan doesn’t know. However, it is the perception, right or wrong, that television gives us through visual imagery that has defined Romo’s mess. Yes, this is Romo’s mess. Parcells warned Romo about this commandment. Romo should have learned his lesson during Carrie Gate last Christmas Day. He didn’t.
When the common fan looks at how dominant Tony Romo has played this year and all the sudden, he or she sees him playing like some guy who looks like he is on his third team, fixing to get cut again. That person is shocked. There must be a reason for his poor play. After all, Romo has demonstrated quarterbacking skills that are comparable to Brady and Manning this year.
As the fan seeks answers, he or she starts seeing images of Romo throwing bad passes and cut-aways to Simpson shimmying in her pink #9 jersey. Furthermore, the fans know Simpson’s reputation as well and that doesn’t help Romo in the court of public opinion.
As a result, you get “that” in your lockerroom for a week after some of the fans and the media hang “the distraction” around your neck after a tough loss.
Instead of talking about the Panthers’ coverage schemes or defense, a certain #81 finds himself talking about something that sounds like a “high school” love drama between three people.
Furthermore, Owens’ comments about Simpson can be interpreted two ways. I don’t think he was completely joking when he made his comments this week. Although, I do think some humor can be found in Owens’ comments with the media. However, I think Owens ended up using humor as the talk progressed, because the media laughed at what he was saying. If you listen to Owens in parts of that interview, he sounds dead serious, especially at the start and middle of the interview. That is my opinion. While Romo has taken cover this week, his teammates have had to listen and cover for him.
Romo has to be accoutable for the Jessica Simpson distraction “that” invaded his lockerroom this week. As Parcells said, “We don’t need ‘that’”. Romo has indeed brought “that” upon himself. It isn’t Terrell Owens’ fault. He shouldn’t have to apologize for anything. I don’t think he was entirely joking with his comments, especially about the feelings in the lockerroom, and “that” is the problem.
The seeds have been planted in the players’ heads as well. They, like the common fan, saw the difference in Romo’s play during the Eagles’ game. Romo fell off the map. He was really bad. Also, they remember last year’s game with the Eagles where Carrie Underwood was on the field. Parcells wasn’t happy about Underwood being visible with Romo before the game, and I’m sure he wouldn’t have wanted Simpson’s face on t.v. while his quarterback was struggling.
The media is crying distraction and some of the fans are crying distraction, and the players hear it. It just takes a few key players to buy into the “distraction” in order for your leadership to lose equity or credibility. After all, the players know Romo is involved with Simpson. It isn’t a far leap to say a few could think his relationship with Simpson caught up with him during a critical game.
The Chicago-Sun Times is a pretty credible newspaper. The paper reported that the Cowboys have told Romo to put his romance on hold with Simpson during this crucial time of the season. Also, they reported that a Cowboys’ official told Simpson that it might be better to “cool it down” with Romo as he plays a critical stretch of football.
I don’t know if the report is true, but I wouldn’t bet against it, and I wouldn’t expect to see Simpson visible at the games for the rest of the season.
However, you’ll see thousands of her tomorrow night in Charlotte.
Romo needs to deliver this week, he has backed himself and the team into a corner after “that” dominated the headlines for a week instead of the Panthers. Don’t think they won’t come out ready to play. We shall see.
The Cowboys basically blew a chance to all but lock up home-field throughout the playoffs last week. Now, Gurode is hurt, Williams is out, and Watkins is out. Things just got tougher. Washington looms as well.
It is up to Romo to right the ship he has driven so masterfully through out the season.
So because a bunch of idiot camera men and a bunch of idiot mediots have blabbed on and on about Simpson all week, we now blame Romo for all this?? For bringing his girlfriend to a football game??? WTF?? Scout, you already mentioned the fact that she was at the Green Bay and the Jets game and Romo played great. So I’m pretty confident in saying that SHE HAD ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH HIS PLAY!!! Romo, nor Simpson, controls what the camera or the media decides to focus on one week to the next. The media makes the story, not the players on the field anymore. This isn’t Romo’s fault. He didn’t bring this on himself. He didn’t tell the cameras to go and point at JS. The media, in their never ending quest to try to bring US FANS the 24 hour a day coverage we want, has now turned football into Entertainment Tonight.
Kameleon,
I think you missed his point. I think what he is saying is that Romo’s image has become a distraction this week in the locker room. Not that it caused him to play badly.
kameleon, I agree with you. The media is trying to give the appearance that there is a distraction, and the sheeple are buying into it.
I don’t, and you can probably bet the players don’t. In the locker room, they’re probably laughing about the talking heads getting everyone’s panties in a bunch, I know I would be. That’s why I call them oxygen thieves. They’ll spout off about anything controversial to justify their pay check.
I’ll say it again, DON’T LISTEN TO THE OXYGHEN THIEVES, they have no place here.
oxygen
I HOPE the players are not distracted. Probably not. BUT frankly having Jessica take a lower profile would be a good idea.
There’s a lot of wasted effort here on Jessica. She’s not on the team. Take it over to Oprah’s blog will ya.
My prediction,
Cowboys 35, Panthers 10.
I was watching the pre-game warmup on the NFL channel. Tony looks fine, his catching his own balls in warm ups!
El harpo,
Maybe I did miss his point, but I thought his point was that Romo brought this on himself. I disagree with that.