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Day One of Free Agency and What Do We Know?

Nose tackle is getting a lot of attention.

– Dallas traded Jason Ferguson to the Dolphins for an ‘09 6th rounder and a swap of 6th round picks this year.

– The Packers traded DT/NT Corey Williams to the Browns for a second round pick.

– The Eagles apparently have a deal in place with CB Asante Samuel.

– The Vikings are working on a deal for Bengals FS Madieu Williams, to replace Darren Sharper, I presume.

– Cowboys CB Jacques Reeves has visits set up with the Rams, Chiefs, Saints, Texans and Bucs. He and Samuel are the top two tiers of free agent CBs folks. You better believe CB will be a hot position in rounds one and two of the draft.

– The Dolphins are one of several teams pursuing Lions DT/NT Shaun Rogers. They’ve heard the reports in Miami about the Cowboys and Dolphins discussing a trade for Jason Ferguson.

The Miami scribes apparently don’t know Bill Parcells that well. They’re ready to flip a high pick for Rogers, feeling Parcells “is the guy to finally motivate him,” but feel Ferguson is only worth perhaps a 7th round pick, cause he’s an eleven year vet.

Ferguson isn’t worth a day one pick, but Parcells values certainty. He “likes to know what he has” in a player, I’ve often been told. He knows what he has in Ferguson, who is a guy who grinds and produces. Neither he nor any other coach/GM would know what he has in Rogers, who flashes dominance and then eats himself out of the lineup.

– Kris Jenkins was another DT/NT the Dolphins were tracking but the rival Jets have acquired him from the Panthers. This should enhance whatever value Ferguson has for his old coach.

Update: Espn claims the Jets gave up a 3rd and a 5th for Jenkins.

Flozell is staying

Update: The Hotel’s deal is reportedly for $42+ MM over the 6 years, with $15 MM guaranteed in the first three years of the contract. From the initial sound of it, it would seem to be a definite 3 year deal, with the 4th, 5th, and 6th years falling under the NFL’s less than secure “cut-when-convenient” ethos.

The Cowboys reached a contract agreement with LT Flozell Adams this evening, just hours before he would’ve become a free agent. The deal is reportedly for 6 year, but exact financials are not yet available. Adams turns 33 in May, and would have headlined a weak offensive free agent class as a premier player at a prized position.

In other FA news, Marion Barber III has been tendered with a one year offer of $2.56 MM as a restricted free agent. The Cowboys would receive a first and third round draft pick if another team elected to beat the Cowboys’ offer.

DE Chris Canty received a $2.017 MM tender as a RFA. The Cowboys’ would receive just a first round pick if another team beat their offer for Canty.

FB Oliver Hoyte, the man who ended new Cowboys LB Zach Thomas‘ 2007 season, was cut today as well.

Clip & Save — Mock #1

My first day mock, as of February 27th. I’m taking a conservative approach here, assuming Dallas re-signs Marion Barber long term and makes a strong push for Flozell Adams.

Round 1

pick 22 — Dominque Rogers Cromartie, CB Tennessee State : I saw a mock today that puts him in the top ten. That’s the power of a 40 time on some mockers. He had a fantastic combine but I think this is getting carried away. I do think he’ a first rounder now. He would be the first Tennessee Stater to go in the first since Ed Too Tall Jones and Waymond Bryant went in the top ten back in 1974. Let’s hope Too Tall is sending some of that old school mojo to his old pro team.

pick 28 — Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State: He’s big and productive and put up a 4.40 40 time that should answer questions about his speed.

Round 2

pick 61 — Red Bryant, NT, Texas A&M: People on this board have been screaming for a nose tackle the last two years. Here’s your guy. A 322 lb. run stuffer.

Round 3

Matt Forte, RB, Tulane: Ran a 4.46 at 217 lbs.

Happy Birthday to Us

Perhaps it’s because I have a son who is about to celebrate a birthday.  Whatever the reason, I missed this blog’s 3rd birthday last Friday and I feel like a deadbeat dad.

Sorry, Raul.  Sorry, blog.  Sorry dear readers.

Happy birthday to The ‘Boys Blog.  We’re all growed up and, THREE!

Who Rises and Who Falls on Draft Day

Last March I took a look at team drafts by positions, to see which positions went high on draft day and which ones dropped. I was working with a heuristic that quarterbacks rose and running backs generally fell on draft day. Some readers challenged me to put my research where my mouth was. The chart below, showing offensive drafts from the past decade, is the result. I’ve updated it for ‘08:

Position	1st Rd	Top 10	% in Top 10
Quarterbacks	28	16	57%
Tackles	27	11	41%
Receivers	43	17	40%
Running Backs	30	12	40%
Tight Ends	13	2	15%
Guards	10	1	10%
Centers	3	0	0
Fullbacks	0	0	0

Some conclusions:

1. There are only four positions that get serious first round attention on offense — quarterback, offensive tackle, receivers and tailback. A tight end might sneak in now and then but guards, centers and fullbacks are afterthoughts.

Dallas follows this template. In the past 25 years the Cowboys have taken a QB — Troy Aikman, three WRs — Mike Sherrard, Michael Irvin and Alvin Harper and a running back — Emmitt Smith, from the marquee positions. They even drafted a TE, nabbing David LaFleur in ‘97. They have never, however, gone for an interior offensive lineman.

2. A lot of wide receivers will go in the first round, as they always do.

It’s been mentioned that first round WRs are bad bets. But look at the charts. Does this ever stop teams from selecting them? Receiver is easily the most popular first round position. This year will be no different. Malcolm Kelley, DeShawn Jackson and Limas Sweed are among the receivers getting first round attention, but I doubt we’ll see one taken in the top 14 to 15 and fewer than normal in the first round.  Nevertheless, three or four will likely leave the board in the first 31 picks.

And odds are roughly half of them will bust. But that’s a subject for another day.

To summarize:

If you go on success, offensive tackle is the safest bet. If you like taking risks, wide receiver is your pick. Quarterbacks, however, rise to the top, ahead of OTs, because there are never enough of them.

Running backs, as you can see, fall, in relation to the other marquee spots. More first round backs have been taken than QBs or OTs, but fewer of them in the top ten.

– What does this mean for Dallas and for the board in general?

Forget QB.  There’s no Brady Quinn, who could even be used as a bargaining chip.  Brian Brohm might fall, but I doubt he would inspired the package that Cleveland gave Dallas last year.

There could be a short lull after Jake Long leaves the board in the top five, if not the top three, but the OTs will go in round one.  There’s an abundance of them and they’re as safe a pick as you can make.

Once again, the running backs could slip a little. I’m not talking an Aaron Rogers-like fall, but Darren McFadden could be closer to pick ten than pick one.  And once he’s gone, Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall could wait a while.  They should go in the first round, but this year’s RB crop is rich, so team that need a RB, like Arizona and Houston, may choose to address other positions in round one.

Three Men Say They’re Jesus

Two of them must be wrong.  Right?

Tonight I’ve seen:

• a report that Dallas wants to re-sign Flozell Adams;
• a report that Dallas will pursue Randy Moss when free agency begins;
• a report reviving the rumor that Dallas will package one of its picks and Marion Barber for Miami’s #1.

Can Dallas afford more than one of these moves?

Let’s take option three, for instance.  The signing bonus for Darren McFadden would be $30 million.  What would it cost to re-up Barber?  Significantly less, I think.

And if you do that, can you even consider options one or two?

My guess is that option one is the most likely, with option two the least likely and option three not close behind option two.

This silly season seems sillier than most.

Cornerback Up

It looks like secondary players will be the top targets for NFC East teams when free agency opens next week.

– The Philadelphia Inquirer reports the Eagles will make a strong push to sign Giants FS Gibril Wilson.  Brian Dawkins will be 35 next year and the Eagles want to maintain the quality of play at that key position.  Wilson is considered an ideal fit because the Eagles and Giants run the same defensive scheme. The New York Daily News seconds the rumor, so there’s probably something to it.

– Newsday reports the Giants could try to work out a trade for Seattle CB Marcus Trufant if they fail to land Falcons’ CB D’Angelo Hall.   The same story quotes a league source who claims Dallas and Washington are also interested in Hall.  

The Newark Star-Ledger, the paper which originally broke the Hall to the Giants rumor, says the team will look to the draft for their corner if they lose out on Hall.

– The Newsday story contradicts the line out of Valley Ranch, or does it?  Dallascowboys.com’s Nick Eatman claims the “the conversation [between the Cowboys and Falcons] didn’t even last long enough to see what it might cost to acquire [Hall].”

Perhaps, but consider this:

1. there have been reports over the weekend that Dallas asked for permission to discuss numbers with Hall.  Any team that acquires Hall will have to negotiate an extension, so that rumor at least makes sense.
2. Eatman works for the team’s house organ.  He’s the last guy who will spill the team’s strategy, especially when anywhere between six to ten teams are said to be interested in Hall.
3. let us look earlier in Eatman’s story.  This is his summary of the situation:
   

   “But at this point, it doesn’t appear the Cowboys have any strong interest in acquiring Atlanta’s disgruntled cornerback DeAngelo Hall [sic] who has recently stated he will not play for the Falcons in 2008.”

Folks, this is what is known in political journalism as a non-denial denial.  Eatman does not unequivocally say Dallas doesn’t want Hall. He says at this point, the Cowboys lack strong interest in Hall.

Sure, they don’t have interest NOW, because the Falcons are not going to deal him now.  If you have several teams interested in your asset, you wait until free agency plays out, and thins the cornback options.  Then, you wait until just before the draft, perhaps even during the draft, to see if a team panics and gives you a steal.

Atlanta has three division rivals after the same guy.  They’re in no hurry.

–

Monday Musings

Just me thinking out loud:

1. The fan threads on the Atlanta Journal Constitution are filled with Falcons partisans screaming for their team to pass on Darren McFadden. Once Vicked, twice shy.

2. At the Miami Herald, they’re hoping against hope that McFadden’s 4.27 time will convince somebody to trade up and relieve them of the number one pick. But they mention his paternity problems and the $30 million bonus the top pick commands and I think they know in their heart of hearts it ain’t gonna happen.

3. I’m thinking about Texas A&M DT/NT Red Bryant. The Cowboys are showing interest in him. He’s 322 lbs. and is one of the top run stuffers coming out this year. One scout has compared him to Casey Hampton. He’s much bigger than any of the Dallas NTs, including Jason Ferguson, who lists at 305 (and I’m told the Dallas weights are very accurate).

If Dallas were to land him, you think the phones between Miami and Dallas would heat up, with Ferguson the target? And which side would call first?

4. So Dallas is interested in Texas DB Marcus Griffin. Are they looking for a young S to put in the pipeline? Would this have ramifications for other Dallas safeties in the near or not so near future?

5. I’ve been on team sites looking for draft information and I keep seeing nimrods suggest that their team trade a guy who’s scheduled to become a free agent. For example, a Chargers fan proposed his team trade Michael Turner for D’Angelo Hall.

I’m not picking on the Chargers’ partisans. I’ve seen this type of thing on Dallas sites too. Which makes me wonder — what part of “unrestricted free agent” don’t these folks understand. If you’re a UFA, your contract has expired. Your old team has no claim to you.

This isn’t the NBA. Sign and trades don’t exist in the NFL.

6. This would be funny, and perhaps effective: Dallas signs RB Michael Turner and acquires FB Lorenzo Neal from the Chargers, recreating San Diego’s backfield, with Marion Barber playing the LaDainian Tomlinson role.

Turner has more speed than Barber. I remember he sealed the Chargers win in Indy two years ago with a 70+ yard run in the 4th. He took a toss right, broke a tackle and fled. Plus, Dallas’ running game and San Diego’s are identical. Wade Phillips surely knows him from his Charger days. Turner would be a plug and play player.

But would he play in a platoon? Here’s what draftdaddy.com said about him a few days ago:

Michael Turner’s (Chargers tailback) people are not happy here in Indy. Apparently his agent has been told precisely what I expected — the draft is loaded with tailbacks and teams in dire need at running back will draft one. The one team that might be his buyer is New Orleans, because Deuce’s recovery has hit some snags, according to their trainers. The Steelers like Turner a lot, but they don’t like the numbers he is looking for. Arizona, reportedly, loves him but can’t afford to even buy groceries on their cap. They just had to cut three players to get a little wiggle room.

Let’s parse this statement a bit more. Every team mentioned here runs a two back system. The Saints rotate Deuce and Reggie Bush. The Steelers have Willie Parker and Najeh Davenport, though Parker is rehabbing an injury. And would the Cards cut Edgerrin James for Turner? And would they have the cap space to sign him if they did?

He’s not such a far fetched option, in my opinion.

We’ll learn soon enough. A week from today we’ll be three days into free agency.

7. Michigan RB Mike Hart is getting some attention, after his great interviews. But have people seen his 40 times? I think he averaged 4.60.

Dallas won’t draft a guy who’s slower than Marion Barber. That’s not the change of pace Jerry Jones is looking for.

D-Mac Daddy

What’s the hubbub over Darren McFadden and his “Maury Povich-like” interview?

He’s facing a paternity suit and told one team he has two more children on the way.

To quote Butthead of Beavis & Butthead fame, “does this make him the Daddy Mac or the Mac Daddy?”

His first endorsement deal should be with Durex or Trojan.

Maybe he and Tom Brady should have a talk…

The jokes just write themselves!

I can hear the interview now:

Al Davis:  “son, we’ll draft you at four, if you have a vasectomy first…”

I tell you the jokes just write themselves…

Could McFadden Fall and if so, how far?

It seems possible. The Atlanta Falcons were due to meet with Arkansas RB Darren McFadden to conduct their due diligence after the RB gave an apparent stinker of an interview earlier in the day. McFadden apparently was nonchalant about character issues, “including a Maury Povich-style paternity suit.” The Rams VP of personnel is quoted as saying, “there have been some red flags with him…”

The Falcons are especially sensitive to character issues after the Michael Vick fiasco. If they pass on McFadden, how far could he fall? Top ten picks get huge signing bonuses and teams in that range that need a RB might not feel willing to risk an eight figure bonus, especially with this year’s deep RB class.

McFadden’s agent needs to conduct some damage control stat. If his client’s answers are already being discussed in major newspapers, the RB may have cost himself a lot of money.

Combine Update: Offensive Linemen

Today offensive linemen, tight ends, and specialists worked out at the combine. Below are some notes on the linemen, and specifically on this year’s crop of OT prospects, which is the best and deepest in years. The Cowboys look to be be in the market for a tackle in the first 2-3 rounds, so some of these guys will be possibilities. Most of the analysis on NFL Network today came from Mike Mayock, who is a bit unorthodox on some of his rankings but typically less hyperactive than Kiper and the others.

Jake Long, OT Michigan

6′7″, 314

225 Press: 37 reps

Long’s 37 was the highest rep total among offensive linemen yesterday. This is even more impressive because of his very long, skinny (relative to other OLs, not normal humans) arms–the bench press favors OLs with shorter arms and barrel chests. Long’s each is extraordinary–his arms actually measure 2 inches more than Joe Thomas’ did last year, and he has the largest hands of any OL prospect at this year or last year’s combine.

Chris Williams, OT Vanderbilt

6′6”, 315

225 Press: 21 reps

5.35 forty-yard dash

Andy Reid reportedly loves this guy, and Mayock has him as his #4 OT overall. More of a finesse blocker at this point–showed very good feet in the mirror drill. Lacks the strength necessary at the NFL level, but has the frame to develop. Just looking at him, you can tell he lacks the bulk to hold the edge against a bull rush from an elite NFL DE and that he will need to spend time with an NFL strength coach before he can be an everyday starter at LT.

Brandon Albert, OG Virginia

6′7”, 314

Ran 1.71. for the first 10 yards of the forty-yard dash, which is extremely explosive and is really the most important segment of the run for an offensive lineman. Mayock made the bold statement that on Albert that he has never seen an interior OL that plays better in space.

Heath Benedict, OT Newberry

6′4”, 321

5.08 forty-yard dash

Fastest forty-yard dash amongst his OL group. Shows good explosion. Probably not physically capable of playing LT in the NFL–likely mans RT or moves to G at the next level.

John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame

6′3”, 284

5.40 forty-yard dash

One of the lightest OLs at the combine–will need to put considerable bulk on his frame to make it in the NFL. Excellent footwork in the mirror drill–good up and down leg movements, strong lateral quickness.

Ryan Clady, OT Boise State

6′6”, 317

Longest arms at the combine this year, surpassing even Jake Long. Good strength and technique combo.

Gosder Cherilus, OT Boston College

6′6”, 315

ESPN’s #5 overall OL prospect and Mayock’s #5 rated OT.

Jeff Otah, OT Pittsurgh

6′6”, 339

5.56 forty-yard dash

ESPN’s #4 overall OL prospect and Mayock’s #2 OT. Very upright in the mirror drill. Lacks much of a knee bend, and his height combined with that lack of a bend hurts him a bit in getting leverage against a bull rush. Great size, but looks stiff. Does not move great laterally.

Carl Nicks, OT/OG Nebraska

6′5”, 341

Second heaviest OL at the combine. May get some looks at OT from whatever team drafts him, but ultimately he likely projects to a guard in the NFL. Good size/bulk, but does not necessarily have the footwork to fire outside like an OT needs to.

Of the OTs, only Clady and Jake Long project as top 15 picks at this time. Players like Otah and Chris Williams are flawed but still very talented prospects, and are possibilities in the second half of the first where the Cowboys currently own two picks.

Other notes:

WR DeSean Jackson officially weighed in at 169 pounds this week. While everyone knew he was not a big receiver, that’s an extremely low number. Combined with his injury history, it raises some concerns.

Despite Jackson’s size issues, there is no shortage of big WRs in this year’s draft. There are 10 WRs at the combine over 6′3”: Limas Sweed (6′3”), Malcolm Kelly (6′3”), Marcus Monk (6′4”), Evan Moore (6′6”), James Hardy (6′5”), Justin Harpe (6′3”), Marcus Henry (6′3”), Todd Blythe (6′4”), Maurice Purify (6′3”), Mario Urrutia (6′5”)

Rutgers running back Ray Rice weighed in at 199 pounds, one of several RB prospects who showed up a bit lighter than expected.

The Economic Case For A D’Angelo Hall, Part II

What’s does Asante Samuel want?

– Ten years,

– $100 million,

– $30 million guaranteed.

Akin On the Spot? Yes, Thomas Now a Cowboy

Update II:  There’s a rumor gaining steam in the threads, apparently seen on ESPN (can anybody confirm?) that would break down like this:

Dallas gives up:

• pick 22
• it’s 4th rounder, 122nd
• Anthony Henry
• Akin Ayodele

Atlanta would give up:

• D’Angelo Hall
• the 37th pick (6th in round two)
• the 48th pick (17th in round two)

Consider this:  Akin Ayodele played at Jacksonville as a 4-3 OLB for defensive coordinator Mike Smith.  The same Mike Smith who is Atlanta’s new head coach.

I tend to take rumors like this with a grain of salt, but this one appears to have a bit more juice than most.

Stay turned.

Update: Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer says the Cowboys have reached a deal with LB Zach Thomas. This most likely ends the tenure of Akin Ayodele as a Dallas ILB.

The Cowboys active pursuit of Thomas says they were not happy with their ILB play. Ayodele became a blocking magnet and had tremendous difficulty disengaging or avoiding centers and guards, a must in the 3-4 system.

Thomas is smallish, but Wade Phillips’ Chargers defenses proved a player Thomas size could thrive; Donnie Edwards racked up scores of tackles playing at 227 lbs. when stacked behind mammoth NT Jamal Williams.

To keep the mental and logical dominoes falling, Dallas may have depth at NT with Jay Ratliff, Tank Williams and the rehabbing Jason Ferguson, but if Phillips wants to replicate his Chargers’ scheme, don’t be surprised if the Cowboys look for a mammoth NT in the middle rounds. I know they’ve spent time talking to Texas A&M DT/NT Red Bryant, one of the bigger D-lineman in this year’s draft.

– LB Zack Thomas picked up his second contract offer yesterday, from the Saints. He also has one in his back pocket from the Patriots.

Thomas was supposed to speak to the Cowboys yesterday at the Combine. I’m wondering, with all the talk of moving Bobby Carpenter, if Dallas were somehow to land Thomas, wouldn’t Akin Ayodele be the guy on the hot seat? After all, Carpenter and Kevin Burnett are kids. They’re high draft picks, but they cost less than Ayodele, who got a big free agent deal two years ago. Wouldn’t he be the guy you would shop, and who would give more cap relief?

- The Dolphins are also in the D’Angelo Hall hunt, with GM Jeff Ireland vouching for his character. The Miami scribes feel the team is more likely to acquire WR Troy Williamson from the Vikings.

The Economic Case for Pursuing D’Angelo Hall

… comes from Redskins’ personnel honcho, Vinnie Cerrato, of all people.

When explaining why the Redskins, perennial free agent players, won’t be chasing down players a week from tonight, Cerrato explained,

“I just think there’s a limited number of guys in free agency. The price of what guys are going to be paid is astronomical. I don’t foresee us being a big player.”

Let’s parse Cerrato’s statement. A couple of weeks ago the top veteran cornerback pool consisted of Nnamdi Asomugha, Marcus Trufant and Asante Samuel. Asomugha and Trufant were franchised by the Raiders and Seahawks respectively this week, meaning if you want to get a veteran corner, you better get your checkbook and put Samuel’s agent on your speed dial.

Now, is he better than Hall? Marginally so, perhaps. But one thing a team pursuing Hall gets is a chance to negotiate a long term extension before free agency blows past salary standards out of the water.

But what type of money would a D’Angelo Hall merit? Based on performance, less than he probably wants.

Update: The Newark Star-Ledger story outlining the Giants pursuit of Hall makes precisely the case I outlined above. The Giants had hoped that Asomugha and Trufant would hit the open market but rate Hall higher than Samuel.

The story cites two sources who claim the Giants would give up the 31st pick. That must mean the Giants, who grabbed Aaron Ross with pick 20 last year, rate Hall higher than any rookie they can get with the 31st pick.

That Dallas is also interested in Hall means the Cowboys scouts feel the same about any rookie they could acquire at the bottom of the first round.

This tells me that none of the corners rated in the 28 - 32 area merit first round grades. Let’s do some reasoning here. This means that the Giants and Cowboys both see players in the 28-31 spots as having second round grades. This means that at best, we’re looking at 22-25 players with top round grades this year.

Adjust your mental mocks accordingly.

D’Angelo Hall On The Block; NFC East In Pursuit?

D’Angelo Hall told reporters at the scouting combine this afternoon that the chances of his remaining a Falcon are “slim to none” after learning the team is shopping him.

The Newark Star-Telegram reported this morning that the Giants are offering their first round pick, which is the 31st, for Hall. The linked story also claims the Redskins might have interest.

This rumor link says Dallas is also “in it” for Hall and that Jerry Jones has requested to “talk numbers” about Hall, likely meaning he would want to work out a contract extension before he makes a deal. Hall is entering the final year of his current deal. The site speculates Dallas could offer its second #1 pick at 28, which would trump New York’s current offer, if in fact that rumor is true.

The same site says the Ravens, Chiefs and Falcons are showing interest in Flozell Adams. Nor surprising. The Chiefs lost Willie Roaf, the Ravens are trying to move past Jonathan Ogden and the Falcons just need a left tackle.

Update:  The Arizona Republic reports that the Cardinals and Larry Fitzgerald are “far apart” even though the team made him an offer that would make him the game’s highest paid WR.

But don’t get your hopes up.  In fact, go to the refrigerator now, get some cold water and pour them on your WR fantasies.  Here’s the key graf:

“We’re looking for something that works for both parties, but we were told that he (Fitzgerald) was going to be a Cardinal this year no matter what and he’s fine with that,” [agent Eugene] Parker said Friday. “We’re trying to find something that can work for both of us. We expect him to be a Cardinal one way or the other.”

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