Who Rises and Who Falls on Draft Day
Posted: February 27, 2008 @ 1:22 pm
Last March I took a look at team drafts by positions, to see which positions went high on draft day and which ones dropped. I was working with a heuristic that quarterbacks rose and running backs generally fell on draft day. Some readers challenged me to put my research where my mouth was. The chart below, showing offensive drafts from the past decade, is the result. I’ve updated it for ‘08:
| Position | 1st Rd | Top 10 | % in Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks | 28 | 16 | 57% |
| Tackles | 27 | 11 | 41% |
| Receivers | 43 | 17 | 40% |
| Running Backs | 30 | 12 | 40% |
| Tight Ends | 13 | 2 | 15% |
| Guards | 10 | 1 | 10% |
| Centers | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Fullbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Some conclusions:
1. There are only four positions that get serious first round attention on offense — quarterback, offensive tackle, receivers and tailback. A tight end might sneak in now and then but guards, centers and fullbacks are afterthoughts.
Dallas follows this template. In the past 25 years the Cowboys have taken a QB — Troy Aikman, three WRs — Mike Sherrard, Michael Irvin and Alvin Harper and a running back — Emmitt Smith, from the marquee positions. They even drafted a TE, nabbing David LaFleur in ‘97. They have never, however, gone for an interior offensive lineman.
2. A lot of wide receivers will go in the first round, as they always do.
It’s been mentioned that first round WRs are bad bets. But look at the charts. Does this ever stop teams from selecting them? Receiver is easily the most popular first round position. This year will be no different. Malcolm Kelley, DeShawn Jackson and Limas Sweed are among the receivers getting first round attention, but I doubt we’ll see one taken in the top 14 to 15 and fewer than normal in the first round. Nevertheless, three or four will likely leave the board in the first 31 picks.
And odds are roughly half of them will bust. But that’s a subject for another day.
To summarize:
If you go on success, offensive tackle is the safest bet. If you like taking risks, wide receiver is your pick. Quarterbacks, however, rise to the top, ahead of OTs, because there are never enough of them.
Running backs, as you can see, fall, in relation to the other marquee spots. More first round backs have been taken than QBs or OTs, but fewer of them in the top ten.
– What does this mean for Dallas and for the board in general?
Forget QB. There’s no Brady Quinn, who could even be used as a bargaining chip. Brian Brohm might fall, but I doubt he would inspired the package that Cleveland gave Dallas last year.
There could be a short lull after Jake Long leaves the board in the top five, if not the top three, but the OTs will go in round one. There’s an abundance of them and they’re as safe a pick as you can make.
Once again, the running backs could slip a little. I’m not talking an Aaron Rogers-like fall, but Darren McFadden could be closer to pick ten than pick one. And once he’s gone, Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall could wait a while. They should go in the first round, but this year’s RB crop is rich, so team that need a RB, like Arizona and Houston, may choose to address other positions in round one.
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1st!!!
obviously this is all offense . id be interested to see where the corners and safeties land in your metric.
stoproyce,
Patience, grasshopper. I need a story for tomorrow…
I think DMAC falls and Mendenhall rises (separating himself from Stewart) leaving DMAC a top 10 (barely) and Mendenhall 15 to 20. Stewart falls to end of 1st, top of second and Jones goes middle of 2nd round.
I would think corners are similar to receivers and safeties similar to tight ends. Just a guess.
Stoproyce, if the RBs go as I predict, that spells trouble for all our DB dreams.
hairmary,
CB is the most drafted position, period.
This was an inspired thought, but to take it a step further, what is to force the #2 team to take advantage of the opportunity to leap frog Miami once they were “late” at picking. It would be an incredible amount of fun if after an hour and a half, no one has picked and then finally team 7 turns in the first pick and the other six teams rush to get the guys at the lowest slop they think they can get away with.
Nothing that happens on the field could match up with that! It would be the most entertaining moment in sports history.
hairmary a froidian slip?
rha,
Nah, I’m just the sloppiest typist in the world.
does any one fathom a scenario where we keep both firsts but move up like to 16 to grab DRC i have a sneaky feeling he is THE future lockdown corner in this league.I believe his stock jumped more than anyones from the senior bowl and combine.i would be sick to my stomach if the skins snagged him from us or the texans who seem desperate for a corner.ok i officially have a man crush on drc . On another topic ding dong sean salsbury is gone,woo hoo by far the biggest blowhard cowboy hater out there, dont let the door hitcha.
I think Houston will go CB in round 1 or trade down. They do not have a 2nd round pick this year. I have heard they like DRC (like every other team this week).
Thinking about what Jerry has been saying it almost seems like they might look for a RB in FA. How much would M.Turner cost? Would he even want to come to Dallas with Barber already here?
stoproyce:
I somewhat agree. He has MAD skills. Physically he is perfect all around for CB play. Can he adapt to the NFL mentally and physically? Time will tell.
I bet we get a WR in free agency here in a few days. BB anyone? Then draft a OT in round 1.
It’s beginning to look like we get 2nd tier WR, DB and RB choices unless we trade up. That may be good enough but trading our 1’s for a plethora of 2’s and 3’s is beginning to make a lot of sense.
These second tier players are all grouped pretty tightly in quality, so a bunch of them might improve our chances of coming away with something special.
Raf, an interesting set of data. But I’d like to posit a different set of conclusions that what you presented.
First, we’re in total agreement that QBs rise. No issue there.
But one way to interpret that data on OTs, WRs, and RBs is that they ALL rise relative to other positions. But before heading into that analysis, with a sample that small, there is statistically little significance between 40% and 41%. So they should be considered equal in terms of likelihood of moving into the top 10.
The 40% figure moving into the Top 10, however, indicates that all of these types move up. With 32 picks in the 1st round (normally), the Top 10 picks represent 31% of the round. Random chance would say 31% of every position would go in the top 10. But for OTs, WRs, and RBs, there are 40%+ in the Top 10. That says these positions move up. Not as much as QBs, but more than random chance would indicate.
rha,
Agree 100% with post #14. Might make good sense to trade out of round 1 with at least one for additional 2nd or 3rd round picks.
Think we might draft a player too high because the value will be gone after 19 or 20.
I thought the Boys gave up a #1 for QB Steve Walsh? Supplemental, but still a #1.
Of course everything will determine what happens in Free Agency at OT and WR, right?
OT - even if FLO’s not here I think we need to draft antother OT for the future. Especially in this draft.
CB - There is nobody better in FA than Reeves IMO . Draft this one high, even if we keep him! Then grab another at round 3 or 4.
RB - Beginning of 2nd round or higher.. no one in FA.
WR - Depends on FA. BB from Chicago or Welker might help but we still need the “wow” factor opposite TO.
DT - round depends on the value
It’s all a gamble based on stats and most importantly.. FILM
rmac,
Did you just wake up?
If you did don’t look out the window just yet.
All this talk of drafting a 1’st round OT is fine if you realize that he probly wont see the field for 2-4 years. If Flo leaves his replacement is already on board, and i hope its not Davis. Our 1st rd pick or picks need and i stress need because of money involved to be 1st year contributors. Our greatest need i think would be cb and rb next, both positions can be first year contributors. OL will not be first year help but would be a luxury pick with hopes of grooming for the future.
JJ has made it clear he does not like to draft wr high. Unless there is a Calvin Johnson type and i dont see one in this draft. He will sign a wr in FA. I see them possibly making a trade up for cb if D-Mac is gone but if he falls to 8 or lower i see them trading up for him…
It’ll be interesting to see what Dallas does in Free Agency. I’d like Dallas to take Michael Turner and remove RB as a draft priority.
My first choice is Brandon Albert - I love aggression in an OL.
With the next pick we get our CB.
Shake up conventional wisdom and take that speedster RB from East Carolina in Round #2.
WR or NT in Round #3.
Let J.Jones & T.Thompson go. Resign MBIII & Canty, and Flo to a reasonable contract.
If only it was my money to spend and everything fell into place the way I want it to.