What Does 21 Mean for Pick 22?
Posted: March 17, 2008 @ 9:08 am
A source told me this morning that the Cowboys have 21 players on their board with first round grades.
The team picks 22nd.
That’s no reason to panic. As I’ve said time and again, every team has a different board. What are the odds that the 21 players Dallas has rated as blue chippers will go exactly in slots 1 through 21? They have to be very high. If just one team ahead of Dallas takes a player the team has as a high second the Cowboys will have first round value waiting for them when they pick.
And if seven such players go that high, the Cowboys could find first round talent at both of their first round spots.
Any guesses on the identity of the Talented 21?
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99 Responses to “What Does 21 Mean for Pick 22?”
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First? Hopefully, their first 28 dont contain Felix Jones. Not bloody likely, I am sure.
It is my understanding from an inside source that with Jeff Ireland gone their will be strict adherence to Mel Kiper’s Big Board.
Speaking of Mel Kiper’s Big Board…
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/melkiper/index
That’s good news, but the obligatory caution is, there will likely be players we rated as 1st round players around at 22 and 28, but that doesn’t necessarily mean there will be CBs, WRs or RBs available we had rated there.
The odds are however, one of the needs players will still be around. Don’t be surprised if we end up with the top guard or hopefully a pressure lineman or linebacker with one of those top 2 picks.
I hope we can restrain ourselves to getting those 1st round graded players rather than reach for need. Otherwise, we will send those top guys further down the line to NY or GB.
1.Chris Long DE
2.Jake Long OT
3.Glenn Dorsey DT
4.Vernon Gholston DE
5.Darren McFadden RB
6.Sedrick Ellis DT
7.Matt Ryan QB
8.Ryan Clady OT
9.Rashard Mendenhall RB
10.Leodis McKelvin CB
11.Phillip Merling DE
12.Jonathan Stewart RB
13.Keith Rivers LB
14.Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB
15.Jeff Otah OT
16.Malcolm Kelly WR
17.Chris Williams OT
18.Limas Sweed WR
19.DeSean Jackson WR
20.Aqib Talib CB
21.Mike Jenkins CB
Top Players still available at 22 in no particular order:
1.Derrick Harvey DE
2.Reggie Smith S
3.Brain Brohm QB
4.Felix Jones RB
5.Branden Albert G
6.James Hardy WR
7.Brandon Flowers CB
8.Antoine Cason CB
9.Dan Conner LB
10.Tracy Porter CB
11.Early Doucet WR
12.Jamaal Charles RB
13.Joe Flacco QB
14.Devin Thomas WR
15.Kentwan Balmer DT
16.Jerod Mayo LB
I’m thinking we can get a RB in round 2, so as long we get a CB and WR in round 1, I’m good.
Just get 1 WR:
James Hardy
Early Doucet
Devin Thomas
And get 1 CB:
Brandon Flowers
Antoine Cason
My first post from Kuwait!
Desean Jackson at 169 lbs is not going in the first.
Sure Desean Jackson can go in the 1st!
Walterfootball.com has him going at #20 to Tampa Bay
NflDraftDog.com has him going at #19 to Philly
NFLDraftCountdown.com has him going at #12 to Denver
Mel Kiper has him going at #20 to Tampa Bay
NFLDraftBlitz.com has him going at #17 to Minnesota
I find it oddd that Desean is going so high by so many known draftniks. its seems that with a few exceptions nobody on here would take him. He is a talented guy but for good as he could be he has the look of a guy that bust into flames.
“How could a 3rd or 4th corner make Roy Williams better?” C’mon, how about taking Roy out on known passing downs and replace him with the 4th corner.
Bishop West,
Nice.
Give me a Thomas and a Flowers in round one and I would be happy.
But why Jamaal Charles? How does that guy get into a discussion to top 40 prospects?
Give me Matt Forte in round two in addition to a first round WR and CB and I’ll do the happy dance.
though I must add, look at the guys you have rated 15-21. One of those guys will likely be on the board for Dallas at 22.
The most likely, IMO? Talib or Jenkins, though Kelly and Sweed would be intriguing as well, especially Kelly.
Raf, I’d be interested in your take on the possibility of asumghwa possibly hitting the market if the raiders get the Hall deal done.I heard if they pull off the stated contract with him they wouldn’t be able to afford the franchise tag on namde so he’d hit the market.Most of the silly money has burnt away .wouldn’t we have to make a stab at him to keep him from the gnats and skins? could we?
QB Ryan
RB McFadden, Mendenhall, Stewart
TE Davis, I know he can’t block,..
OT Long, Otah, Williams
G Albert
WR Kelly
10 on Offense
DT Dorsey, Ellis
DE Long, Gholston, Merling
LB Rivers, Mayo
CB McKelvin, DRC, Talib, Jenkins
11 on Defense
Change:
LB: Mayo for Connor
Burmafrd - are you at Camp Doha? Is that place still around? I spent a good part of my life at that place in the early 90’s…
Where to start - oh yeah, we’re so screwed only 21 first round grades. Jerry has to trade up to #1 and #2 to get Felix Jones and Manningham.
Actually, I think there’s a very good shot that the 4th CB is available, maybe even the 3rd at #22.
I have them as McKelvin, Jenkins, DRC then Talib. They are so close that is 10 GMs might prefer them in all 10 different combinations.
To me, DRC is the most physically gifted, therefore greatest potential but he is raw. The Ravens, Bucs and Boys can most afford to draft him with the intent of time to grow into the position.
The Bills (WR), Cards (LT) and Texans (RB) need a CB but have greater needs at other positions.
I predict
CB availability at #22:
McKelvin 5%
Jenkins 25%
DRC 50%
Talib 75%
Cason 90%
Flowers 90%
There’s a good chance at getting a top 4 CB without a trade up.
CB availability at #28:
McKelvin 5%
Jenkins 5%
DRC 5%
Talib 50%
Cason 75%
Flowers 75%
Porter 90%
Getting a top 4 CB at #28 is rolling the dice, but a quality CB more than capable of being our 3rd CB is likely.
BishopWest,
Is that you mock for 1 through 21 or your 21 first round graded players? I like Brandon Albert to replace DeSean Jackson for the 21 first rounders. I also like Kenny Phillips, Brian Brohm Dan Connor and James Hardy but can’t figure who to replace.
Now if it’s a mock, I have no clue as the wildcard Matt Ryan could go as early as #1 or he could fall as deep as the Ravens. Likewise anybody could grab Dmac but if the Raiders and Jets pass, I don’t know where he lands. Likewise, do the Pats go CB or LB?
Isn’t Doha a Saudi port?
“But why Jamaal Charles? How does that guy get into a discussion to top 40 prospects?”
It’s called production.
I still believe there are 3 first round RBs with Johnson, Charles, Rice and Forte ahead of Jones in the second.
Seen lots of mocks with Jones number 4 selected as early as #22, but Charles is about the same size and carried the load for the Horns. He might/should go after 40 but I doubt he’s there for us at the bottom of the second.
DJ Hackett just signed with Carolina - 2 year deal worth $3.5.
New Dallas 7 round mock - updated 3/17
1. Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
1. Early Doucet, WR, LSU
2. Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina
3. Philip Wheeler, ILB, Georgia Tech
4. Simeon Castille, FS/CB
5. Robert Felton, G, Arkansas
6. Dwight Lowery, CB, San Jose St
7. Jason Shirley, DT, Fresno St.
“there’s many people who are simply saying we have to draft a CB in the first round value be damned”
Picking a CB at the bottom of the second (next pick without a trade down) should provide a qualtiy 3rd corner but that player may never become an effective replacement for Henry or Tnew. Certainly not the end of the world, CB would remain a need position in the 09 draft.
Gray,
Is that mock where somebody selects for all 32 teams or your wishes for the Boys draft? The first round looks accurate but some of the picks after that seem optimistic.
I’m starting to get depressed. A lot of these Mocks I have seen have the Big 3 CB’s going by pick number 19. Seems like there are too many teams that need CB’s. If the Pats take a CB at 7 I think they are reaching a bit. Maybe we are better off trading back a bit. This sucks.
birdness:
Doha is the capital city of Qatar. Qatar is in the Gulf.
“Seems like there’s a consistency between being drafted in the first round and ya’know, actually being able to be productive on the field?”
Really? Does that work at every position?
I’ve seen the coast of Gutter, never been there. I was thinking of Dhahran.
What happened to Mike Jenkins? At one time he was the top rated CB. Now he seems to be a question for round one.
Jenkins is not a question for round 1 and is no lower than the 4th CB, he may still be first on some boards. He skipped the Senior Bowl where McKelvin and DRC had great weeks. DRC put up better numbers at the combine. Jerry will be lucky to land him at #22.
Here’s my best stab at the 21.
RB 3, McFadden, Stew, Mendy
CB 3, DRC, McKelvin, Jenkins
DL 4, Long, Dorsey, Ellis, Merling
OT 4, Long, Clady, Williams, Otah
OLB 3, Gholston, Harvey, Groves
ILB 1, Rivers
QB 1, Ryan
S 1, Phillips
WR 1, Kelly
The last 3 to make the list were Merling, Phillips, and Groves. I could see Sweed, Balmer, DeSean Jackson, Reggie Smith, Albert, and possibly Brohm as receiving 1st round grades.
Camp Doha is in Kuwait, I spent a good while in that area in 99.
Across the border from me now. Greetings from Baghdad!
If I recall correctly from Raf’s description of how teams pull together their own boards - don’t they exclude players they know they won’t pick e.g. first round QB’s?
In which case, if they have 21 players they are almost guaranteed to have a couple still there at 22. I would have thought they may even have a shot at 28 if they are lucky.
jevans1729,
Why were the Cowboys showing some interest in Jevon Walker? They couldn’t afford him.
Drafting a player like Limas Sweed or Malcolm Kelly would allow T.O. to rest some. Even Devin Thomas could give T.O. a couple of plays off.
Now would be a perfect time to draft a potential number one target. He wouldn’t have to be the guy now. He could just learn.
If Owens goes down, Dallas is done. See the Carolina game and Washington game at D.C. Plus, he may want more money than Jerry wants to pay and he has had some injuries in his career.
Dallas hasn’t used a first round pick on offense since 1997, and the defense still has issues. (Carpenter and Roy Williams) It is time to use some top end draft capital on an offensive premium position.
It is time for that to change. The value should be there at the WR position.
The Cowboys depth chart at WR speaks for itself, as does the performance of Austin and Hurd and Glenn. Who knows when Stanback will be ready or if he will ever be a starter.
Yes. Dallas was 13-3 last year as people say, but everyone has seen Garrett’s offense. Another reliable weapon is going to be needed against the good teams, especially.
Terry Glenn is hope at this point. Again, he could fall apart at any time. LeRon Landry almost put him out for good. Glenn was lucky.
Bone on Bone
Does Sam Hurd strike fear into anyone?
Miles Austin?
Isaiah Stanback?
Luke,
I would take Red Bryant over King in round two. King is a developmental guy that I really like. Getting him as a dime back and developing him into a future nickel back would pay off down the road. The guy has freakish measurables.
“I don’t think D.J. Hackett could push Hurd or Stanback down the depth chart”.
No one on this blog said this, but this is the delusional mode of thinking that exists by some.
You have to be kidding me.
I heard that Jerry has McFadden ranked/listed 21 times.
rha,
No. My draft opinions are a far cry from a smear campaign trying to deny a human being the opportunity at a second chance in life.
Pacman has been severely punished. He is no angel, but those that persectue him in the media are being hypocritical. We all have flaws and weaknesses.
While Pacman has brought the scrutiny on himself through his behavior. People wanting him to not get a second chance have no write to trash him unless they are perfect.
They need to look in the mirror.
Just saw Mcshays latest mock and he had us taking Jenkins at 22 and the WR Devin Thomas at 28. I would be estatic over that. If Sweed and Devin Thomas were both available at 28, who would you take. Sweeds wrist checks out in this.
Squid,
Jenkins at 22 and Devin Thomas at 28 would be perfect. But I don’t think Jenkins will make it to 22 and don’t think Thomas will make it to 28. I’d love to be wrong.
Sweed no Thomas, wait Sweed. They both have it all, just Sweed is bigger but Thomas is faster and his wrist does check out. By happy one of them is there.
“don’t they exclude players they know they won’t pick e.g. first round QB’s? ”
So Matt Ryan and Brian Brohm are off the Boys list of 21? Likewise for any TEs or OLBs? Does Parcell’s list consist of just TEs and LBs?
No, those guys are on the board. 21 means everybody.
The only players who might be excluded from a board are character or medical risks whom a team knows it will not consider.
Donny,
I never said Manningham was the best WR in the draft, but he is one of them for sure. Before the combine, some experts were saying he was the best route runner and deep threat in the draft. Mannngham was an All-Big Ten player. He had to play against Jack Ikegw., Tracy Porter, Justin King, Charles Godfrey, ect… during his career. Manningham has plenty of skins on his wall. I don’t think I’m hyping him at all. His yard per catch dwarfs DeSean Jackon’s.
Manningham has huge value at # 28. I bet he has a better grade than Steve Smith of the Giants. Smith was a player I didn’t like, but I was wrong.
I like Sweed, Thomas, Kelly, and Hardy as well. I wish Dallas could take Sweed and Manningham in round one, because I wouldn’t hesitate. However, CB will prevent it.
Manningham should be more ready to go than Hardy and Thomas.
Also, if Kelly works out well, he will not get passed Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Washington.
If Sweed doesn’t work out and his wrist is cleared, he may fall to us at # 22. If he did, I would have a real tough choice to make. Sweed or Flowers. I am leaning Sweed right now if that happened.
Sweed will not get by Tennessee if his wrist checks out. How do you pass on the preseason number one rated WR at # 22 unless you think Hurd, Austin, and Stanback are the ultimates waiting to turn into Superman? Sweed playd at Texas. He won a national title. He didn’t play quarterback for crying out loud.
I’m talking to the media pundits out there that honestly think drafting players like Jerome Simpson will solve the lack of a number one WR in the wings behind a 35 year old player who is in the last year of his contract. You could break Sweed in at Glenn’s spot and he could learn under T.O. for at least one year, maybe more. Also, you wouldn’t have to pay $28 million dollars in guarantees to do it.
If Sweed works out and shows his wrist is strong, getting a shot at him goes down, but it is still possible at # 22.
Thomas may be over drafted. Meachem went at # 27 last year. You may sneak him back to 28. It is risky, but taking him at # 22 is a little high. Having said that, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Redskins took him at # 21. Moreover, the Bills are having a private workout with Thomas. They are famous for over drafting players.
Manningham is more polished than Thomas or Hardy for sure, and he can probably be had at # 28. His skill set fills a need on this team.
Bernard Berrian just got paid big bucks to be the type of player Manningham was at Michigan and hopes to be in the NFL.
I can make strong arguments for drafting either a number one and two option in round one this year. It isn’t a hard argument to make.
We just disagree on Doucet vs Caldwell. An NFL trainer can help Doucet strengthen his leg muscles. Also, Doucet was clearly the best WR at the Senior Bowl and Caldwell was down there. Caldwell has much more to prove than Doucet. Doucet is a safe pick. He is polished, a great route runner, a big play maker, and a terrific blocker.
Doucet is stronger than Caldwell, and he gets great seperation with his size and power and cutting ability.
When LSU needed a play, they didn’t call a play they called on Doucet.
When Florida needed a play, they went to Harvin, not Caldwell.
Lets hope teams make a run at the QB,OT and LB positions. We may still get atleast 1 pick with a first round grade, maybe even 2!
I am glad TorchinDefense, Luke, and
Chandus and others see reality in our WR depth chart.
None of us will make the picks, but we don’t have to sit here and listen to significant members in the Dallas Cowboys media tell us how D.J. Hackett isn’t an upgrade over Hurd and Stanback.
We can express our opinions on this blog, and you can disagree. Mario Maningham is better than Hurd, Austin, and Stanback right now.
Again, put them all on waivers and see who gets picked up first.
I can hear A.J. Smith now. “Oh boy, Sam Hurd is available. Quick, it is Miles Austin”.
No, Manningham hasn’t caught a TD pass in the NFL, but he will soon, and it will be more than the one Hurd caught all year long, especially if he plays with Romo, T.O., and Witten in Dallas.
Manningham can stretch the field and is a more polished and explosive route runner than Hurd, Austin, or Stanback right now.
rha, if Hurd is so good, why did he disappear all the time last year? Hurd, at best, is a borderline # 3 option. Where were these guys at Carolina and Washington last year?
Manningham would add a weapon now and would strike fear into a defense and would draw single coverage. He is one of the most talented offensive players in the draft, and he has huge value on the board for Dallas at # 28.
People are expecting Romo to deliver Super Bowls, but they are unwilling to hand him a young blue-chip WR out of round one.
Everyone better hope Romo isn’t asked to spin straw into gold at the WR positon.
It is time to draft a top rated WR in round one. The value should be there with one or both of the picks.
Dallas has two undrafted players and a converted quarterback already, but some people (not just on the blog) would be willing to sit back and take what’s left over at the WR position while the blue-chippers disappear, again.
The positon needs a serious talent and youth up grade for now and the future. I say Dallas has to address this position in round one this year. If they don’t, they will pay the price, and it may be this year.
Dallas has used nine straight picks on a defensive player in round one, and our defense still has problems.
It is time to address the offense with one of these picks. Garrett and Romo deserve it. The offensvie coaches deserve it.
There will be a huge run on the OTs early. They will be gone by pick # 22. This draft is deep at running back but not at the WR position.
If you want a potential number one or two target, you better get them in round one, because the risk for busts goes up after round two and you will have to probably trade up to get a hidden gem later in the draft.
Michael Irvin
Alvin Harper
=
2 Super Bowl Championships!
Squidlo,
I’d take Sweed.
Scout
I think we first need to define #1 receiver. When I think of a #1 receiver I am thinking Randy Moss, T.O., Marvin Harrison, Chad Johnson,
Fitzgerald/Boldin type players. None of the WRs you are talking about are in these players class. The are no Calvin Johnsons out there, nor do we need one at this point. If you want to upgrade over Austin, Hurd,Stanback, or even Crayton, fine. You can do that in the 2nd round or later even.
As for Terry Glenn, you are absolutely wrong with your “bone on bone” analysis. I know this because Glenn was offered the option of microfracture surgery. This surgery is only done if you HAVE cartilage. It’s primary function is to prevent arthritis in later years. Glenn didn’t have the surgery because:
1. It only has a 75 to 80% success rate in patients under 45.
2. Glenn obviously wants to play and has seen what unsuccessful surgery has done to athletes such as Jamaal Mashburn Terrel Brandon who are no longer in the NBA.
Also, a healthy Glenn is better than all of the wide receivers you listed. Some of those players will be available in the second round for sure. You’ll get a WR, it just won’t be in the first round.
I like Chris Johnson (RB) from Eastern Carolina.. He is a beast… Fast, quick and great vision… not to mention pretty good hands as well. I’ll take him on 22 or 28.. He wouldn’t be there for us on second round. He will make us a very dangerous team.
Jevans,
The chances of our two mid thirties injury prone WR’s playing the whole year without hassle is wishful thinking at best.
And there is #1 WR potential in the draft; Sweed, Thomas and maybe even Hardy have that type of ability. Are these guys rated as high as Calvin Johnson was? No. But that’s actually a good thing for us because if they were we wouldn’t have a chance of drafting them in the 20’s.
The point about drafting a WR in the first round is that it looks like there will be good value for us at WR at either the #22 or possibly #28 spot. You don’t turn down good value at an important position of need.
What if Terry can’t play regularly because of his bad knee? What if TO gets injured again like he has in his last 3 seasons? Here’s the result; a frustrated Romo and an offense that averages 13 points a game. Better hope that all these backup CB’s and backup NT’s that everyone is so keen to reach for in the first 2 Rounds are able hold teams under 10 points.
Camp Arifjan is where I will be working. Its the ASP.
Pacman has to SHOW that he appreciates that he is on the edge of being banned for life. He has to SHOW that he knows how stupid he has been. Nothing he has shown the last few months indicates that.
I watched Manningham in 6-7 games the last 2 years. Not just the big OSU and Bowl games but others as well including Iowa, Indiana, ND, Wisconsin. He does not impress me.
Just watched Jerry Jones being interviewed during the Desperados’ game. He seemed very positive on status of Terry Glen..
Can you imagine if Terry can come back and play well (at least most of the games). This will allow getting the rookie WR (whomever he maybe) some time to grew and learn from the two masters…
Luke,
That’s simply a load of BS. We have the same exact WR corps, that did not have Glenn until the playoffs, yet set nearly every passing record in the history of the Cowboys.
And now they’re only gonna score 13?
Fighter,
You didn’t read what I said. I was talking about what happens if Glenn and TO can’t play. Look at how many TD’s we scored to finish the season after TO went down, answer Zero. TO went down and we scored 3 points in the entire half against Carolina. Then next week without TO our starting offence scored a whole 3 points in the first half. Our backups managed only 3 points in the second. Look at our record breaking QB’s stats without TO against Washington; 7 of 16 86 yards and 1 interception. Why the problem? Why didn’t he just hook up with Witten, Crayton, Glenn, Hurd, Austin, they all played?
Then in the playoffs our record breaking passing attack managed this; Romo 18 of 36 for 201, 1 Td and 1 Int. Why the struggle? TO was playing injured (and still was the only receiver capable of catching a touchdown), Terry Glenn was playing injured, Patrick decided not to show up when we needed him the most and Hurd and Austin could barely get on the field. Result 17 points.
You’re right we have the exact same WR group that couldn’t manage a single TD without TO on the field.
Luke,
I don’t disagree with you, but I don’t think you can cite those playoff stats and rip into our “record-breaking offense.” Stats typically drop in the playoffs for one big reason: you are playing against better teams.
So I think sticking to the Carolina game makes your point better– if TO goes down, our offense loses a lot of its potency. And with a WR of that age, even with Owens’ remarkable conditioning, that’s always a possibility.
Luke:
I think you are overlooking the fact that our O-Line was hurt the last part of the season - exactly the time that the offense scored 13 points per game. Romo’s hand was also hurt. You cannot just pin it on the receiving corp. Without a doubt, the injuries in the receiving corp matter but there are other factors that made a big difference.
No one has talked about it, but I feel that the problems with our receiving in the playoff game was due to Crayton and Glenn being rusty. Crayton was playing a position he hadn’t played all year (3rd receiver) and Romo’s timing was out of sync with Glenn. The team just seemed out of sync and the coaching staff made a huge mistake to think that you could just put pieces in place without time for adjustment. Hopefully, they will get it right next year.
As far as the draft goes, I think if we want one of the top 3 CB’s then we must trade up 3-4 spots. I think that we might need to do this because we need to consider finding someone who can replace Newman. Newman is going to cost an arm and a leg next year. If we were fortunate to find two good CB’s this year, we could get on fine without Newman. One will step in for Newman and the other would become the Nickel CB. I think we need to consider losing Newman, just as New England let Samuels walk. We must not sink the boat just to keep a gold plated oar.
Luke
Our picks are at #22 and #28. With the exception of Hardy, I can find a mock draft that puts every wide receiver including Manningham, Thomas,Jackson,Caldwell,Kelly, etc. in the second round. Now ALL of the guys I have mentioned very well MAY become #1s but I seriously doubt it.
Ted Ginn was drafted by Miami in the first round last year. How did that work out for them? I know the jury is still out but he sure wasn’t Randy Moss.
My bet is that when Dallas gets to #22 and sees what’s available at CB, RB, OL, they will choose a player if he has a first round grade on their board. I say they will most probably trade the #28 pick if they can get a willing partner, and address the other needs later.
jevans,
Nobody’s advocating we reach for a WR like Miami did with Ginn. And plenty of people (including unanimous of this blog) thought it was a terrible pick. I’m not saying we trade up into the top 10 and take Deshawn Jackson or some other ridiculous move I’m just saying there’ll be some good looking prospects of value in the 20’s at WR and we should grab one because we need one badly.
As we move closer to the draft the confusion at WR position will settle some and we’ll have a clearer picture of where guys will go.
Luke
Do you believe we need a WR more than a RB or CB?
Jevans,
I believe you could make a case that each is very, very important (and that’s what i’ve been trying to do the last two days). What I’m objecting to is that so many people are saying that our 3rd and 4th CB is by far the most important thing in this draft. Someone put a list of needs up the other day with CB rated first and then 5 empty slots before WR. That’s just silly. There’s people talking about taking a second CB or a NT before a WR or RB. We have major needs at CB, WR and RB and we should take the best value we can get at those positions however the draft falls. We’d all love for it to fall CB, WR, RB but if it falls WR, RB, CB so be it, don’t damn value to draft a freaking 4th corner or nose tackle neither of who will probably see the field much anyway.
Raf,
Why Jamaal Charles in the top 40?
According to NFLDraftScout.com Jamaal is listed as the #4 out of 187 RB prospects.
Emmitt Smith was 5′9″ and 207 lbs. when drafted. Jamaal is a little taller at 5′11″ and 7 lbs. less at 200.
Jamaal has tremendous speed (4.32 in the 40) and burst. He can excel in the open field. Rarely, if ever, caught from behind.
Averaged 6.3 yard per carry.
Walterfootball.com has Jamaal Charles listed in front of Matt Forte.
NFLDraftDog has Charles listed as a possible 1st rounder.
I like Forte, too. I guess it is a matter of opinion.
Week 15 is where the season really started to unravel.
We lost to 8-8 Philly, 10 points to 6. Yes that’s 10 points to 6.
Our passing attack was 13 of 36 for 214 yards 0 Td’s and 3 Int’s.
Our rushing attack managed 53 yards.
Week 16 we beat the 7-9 Panthers 20 to 13.
We scored 17 points in the first half with TO and 3 points in the second half without him.
Week 17 against the 9-7 Redskins we lost 27 to 6.
Romo’s half without TO looked like this; 7 of 16 for 86 yards and an interception.
Our running game; Jones 8 for 7 and Marion 6 for negative 6! For the entire game we gained 1 yard on the ground.
Then the playoff game, which I’ve already covered earlier. But to recap; we scored 17 points.
Our record setting QB finished with a month of QB ratings like this; 22.2, 81.2, 34.9, 64.7
Do we just ignore that our offense completely collapsed the last month of the season? Is a 4 game streak of poor offense not enough to convince people? Should we wait for it to happen for a full season before we realise all ain’t as rosy as that hot streak in the middle of the year (which mostly consisted of the Romo to TO combination completely dominating opponents) led us to believe.
What would prevent this from happening again? I know, let’s draft 2 CB’s and a NT!!
birdness,
I was only listing who I felt the top 21 draftees were; it is not a mock draft.
FanSince72,
I watched the first half of the Skins game today and there was plenty of times when the Oline picked up the blitz and gave Romo good time and he looked from one side of the field to the other and back again and still no-one was open.
Luke
I think that part of that is plain and simply due to the number of people on the roster at the relative positions. We (technically) have one FA running back with the Barber situation pending, 3 CBs, and 6 WRs.
Personally, my draft philosphy is to draft BPA. However, with such a paucity of RBs and CBs, I think it tends to heighten the anxiety level. As for the WRs, I just don’t think there is the type of “wow” guy that we REALLY want in this draft. Good receivers? Yes. Better than our backups? Yes. “Wow” guy? I don’t think so. I gurantee you that you will be able to get one of the receivers I listed iny #54 post in the second round. Considering the $ we already have commited to the WR position, I just think that is the more reasonable course of action. Have no fear, you will get your WR.
Luke - you make a great case for making WR a first-round priority. My feeling is that if Sweed or Kelly is there at #22, the Cowboys will seriously think about it, especially if none of the top three CBs are available. Same thing if Thomas, Hardy, or Jackson are still there at #28. I’ll be absolutely shocked if Dallas chooses a RB over a WR in the first, except if Stewart or Mendenhall slide.
My gut says that there’s going to be a trade from either #22 or #28, and maybe several, but at the end of the day Dallas will end up with a 1st-round CB, a 2nd-round WR, a 3rd-round RB, and a late-1st/early-2nd pick of someone who doesn’t fill an immediate “need” (probably OL, but maybe DL or even safety) but is someone they had targeted early on as a great bargain.
jevans, you really think that none of the WRs this year are going to develop into NFL stars? Why so pessimistic about this group? Their numbers at the combine and Pro Days have been quite good (as a group), and while there’s not a can’t-miss guy there, I’ll be shocked if one of Sweed, Kelly, Thomas or Hardy isn’t playing in the Pro Bowl in 2010. Definitely worth taking a shot with one of them at #28, I think.
Jevans1729,
Scott Wright has Manningham going to the Rams at number 33. The 4.38 that he ran at his pro day will move him up to # 28 or # 29 in my opinion. Manningham is a proven player. If you wait for a WR at the bottom of round two, you will settle for a player like Andre Caldwell or you might not get one. Caldwell has more risk than the players ranked ahead of him. He simply wasn’t as good as all they guys ranked ahead of him in college.
You have quality starters (number one and two guys) and super stars at WR. Both categories come out of round one and round two. Even many of the #2 options come out round one. That is where the teams are getting most of the starters at WR. Football Outsiders did a study on this, and the results were definitive. Super Stars at this position are tough to come by.
Assuming Kelly runs well and Sweed can work out, there will be a run on WRs in round one. Furthermore, by the end of round 2, where you want to take one, the good ones with the most potential will be gone.
That is why you will see, I bet, six taken in round one. There might not be a WR with a first round grade, either. Some will come close, though.
I am not a doctor, so I was just stated something I had read on Glenn’s knee. I do know his knee is in bad shape, and he played in two games last year. Plus, Glenn came out of the 1996 draft class. There is no safety net under him. If he goes down, you have Hurd or Austin on the field.
I could only come up with 19 players that might have a first round grade.
I stepped back and thought about what I would do as GM. I don’t see Mike Jenkins dropping to Houston. I think the Patriots will take him. If Jenkins has truly dropped, something is up.
#22 Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech
I’ve thought this through. I really like this player. He will prove me right at his pro day when he runs a better time. Flowers has plenty of speed and is an excellent man to man corner and he excells in zone coverage as well. On film, he is the best CB in the draft. He can start at some point if I need him to do it. I’ve been on Flowers since last fall. This isn’t a reach. His stock should rise to this range after his pro day 40 run. I can look for him at 28 as well.
# 28 Mario Manningham WR Michigan
There is no safety net behind Terry Glenn if he breaks down again. Patrick Crayton is best used as a # 3 wideout in a three WR set. Crayton doesn’t scare teams deep. Crayton is a good play maker, but I don’t think he is a true # 2 option.
Manningham will have a year in our system and can replace Glenn out right in 2009. Manningham is more polished than Devin Thomas or James Hardy. Passing on Sweed would be tough. I like him, but T.O. is still here, and Glenn’s eventual repalcement takes priority.
Manningham can stretch the field for me this year. He can provide a deep threat and take some heat off Owens and Witten. Manningham could be option 1a or 1b some day. I think he is that good. Remember, he came out as a junior. Next year, he would probably be a top 20 pick.
Flowers and Manningham give me two players who can help me right now, and they have the college production to back it up.
I personally would feel like Sweed or Kelly would be a great addition if they fall.
I’m not really concerned with Sweed’s injury because this hasn’t been a concern until this year.
Kelly isn’t a burner but he’s one of the better jumpers I’ve seen around. He would be a huge mismatch on pretty much any corner physically.
Scout:
I don’t really take much stock in combines.. and I don’t take ANY stock in pro days.
Who doesn’t run faster on their pro day?
That being said, I like Flowers.
Not so much on Manningham… I think I like Devin Thomas more.
This is my prediction for the draft at this point. (Sweed and Kelly are the wildcards.) Until they work out, I”m moving them down.
I’ve used Scott Wright’s mock for a guideline.
1. Miami- Jake Long OT
2. St. Louis Vernon Gholston DE
3. Atlanta Matt Ryan QB
4. Oakland Darren McFadden RB
5. K.C. Jeff Otah OT
6. NY Jets Leodis McKelvin CB
7. N.E. Mike Jenkins CB
8. Baltimore Brian Brohn QB
9. Cincinnati Sedrick Ellis DT
10.N.O. Keith Rivers OLB
11.Buffalo Devin Thomas WR
12.Denver DeSean Jackson WR
13.Carolina Ryan Clady OT
14.Chicago Chirs Williams OT
15.Detriot Rashard Mendenhall RB
16.Arizona DRC CB
17.Minn. Derrick Harvey DE
18.Houston Jonathan Stewart RB
19.Phil Reggie Smith S/CB
20.Tampa Bay Malcolm Kelly WR
21.Washington Limas Sweed WR
22.Dallas Brandon Flowers CB
23.Pitt Brandon Albert OG
24.Tennessee Philip Merling DE
25.Seattle Dustin Keller TE
26.Jacksonv Kenny Phillips S
27.S.D. Tracy Porter CB
28.Dallas Mario Manningham WR
29.S.F. James Hardy WR
30.GB Gosder Cherilus OT
31.NYG Jerod Mayo LB
I made a last second adjustment. If Kelly doesn’t work out well, Devin Thomas will be taken by the Bills at number 11. They reached on Donte Whitner, and they could reach here. They have worked Thomas out privately. This will cause the Redskins to take Sweed at number 21 in this mock.
Trades are too hard to predict, so I left them out.
AIRFORCEBAT,
The scouts and teams care, or they wouldn’t have them. The scouts are careful to make sure their is no cheating going on.
Many of the players didn’t jump as high at the combine because they were tired from doing drills. That is one reason the verticals are going up.
# 70 mock draft
I left out Aquib Talib. I’ll give him to Houston at # 18. He can play corner for them now and has safety potential as well. That is a great value pick for Houston.
At # 25 Give Seattle Jonathan Stewart.
Scout,
Actually Mick Mayock said there was mistakes made with arm measurements on the vertical jumps which is why people are averaging around 5 inch increases on their pro days. Somebody stuffed up.
And you left Chris Long out of your draft and he looks like a sure fire Top 10 pick.
Donny,
I’ve just been looking at some highlights of RB Chris Johnson and wow, I think you might be right about this guy. His fastest ever Combine electronic 4.24 Forty is not lucky, this guy is super fast. As well as stepping around and over guys he also showed some good tackle breaking ability too. But really his speed stands out so much, he’ll get through a hole and guys will have good angles on him but then zoom, he just explodes around them and he’s gone and they look like they’ve got anchors on their ankles compared to him.
I like the sound (look) of Chris Johnson. How low do you think we could pick him up? Bottom of 2nd?
With his speed I doubt he makes it to our pick up the bottom of the 3rd.
One thing we all need to remember is this is the time of year were lower guys rise and high guys fall. This will be the case until about a week before the draft. This is also the time of year where teams thrive on misinformation. Trust nothing said and go with your picks before the combine.
Too many guys on here fall in love with numbers. If he couldnt play before the great combine workout then he still cant play. If he could play before the combine/proday and the numbers check out then he can play.
greatwhite
It is not that I am pessimistic about the group. It is the fact that there is no consensus about this group with maybe the exception of Hardy & Kelly as respects a #1 grade. I will gurantee you that all of the receivers I listed do not have first round grades. If the player with the #1 grade falls to you at ANY of the 3 positons of need, then you take him whether its RB, CB or WR. This is in opposition to Scout’s theory which seems to be that the WR must be taken in round #1 period. If the WR, CB, or RB don’t grade out as a #1, then you don’t take them.
Scout
Brandon Albert and James Hardy are graded much higher on every mock I’ve seen than Flowers or Manningham. If Albert or Hardy were there at #22, I would definitely take them over Flowers. Also, I would DEFINITELY take Hardy over Manningham at #28. I don’t expect Hardy to be there. Also, I bet Felix Jones grades higher than Manningham for the #28 pick. However, my bet is that Dallas trades either their #22 or #28 pick to get picks in the second and later rounds depending how the draft plays out.
Jevans, mocks are predictions where people are drafted not graded. Brandon Albert is seen as the 23rd pick because Pitt lost Faneca and Pitt has a long history of picking this sort of guy when its a need. For us to pick Albert would be the same as us picking another LB. There are more pressing needs.
The highest I have seen Hardy rated as far as WRs is 4th or 5th.To me anybody in the the top 6 has an equal opportunity to be a good pro. Who we get will probably be about who is left. They all bring strengths and weaknesses.
Depending on a guys size, 4.5 forty or better is enough speed to be very good. What really makes a good WR is the ability to change speeds. To look like your running fast when your running slow and, to look like your running slow when your running fast. If you cant sell a shorter route then you wont beat anyone deep consistently. If your not consistent then your hope and hope is not a plan.
I like the big guys Sweed, Hardy, and Kelly. They are productive and strong and produced and all have good enough speed to be productive.
I also think Manningham would be good fit here. Someone said with Romo, he can make a WR better.(a stretch) I think Manningham is the most polished WR that runs the best routes and gets the best seperation. This to me is an ideal fit for Romo. You get open and he will find you with the ball.(Manningham ran faster at his pro day)Screw everything else, just get open and catch the damm ball.
Having said all of that, there are several of the top 6 WRs I could live with. Im not over the top with a pure burner like many of you are simply because Romo doesnt have the big arm. Im trying to figure out who would be the best fit for Romo. Any of these guys seem to be able to score.
jevans,
Are Albert and Hardy graded over Flowers and Manningham on Dallas’ board?
That’s what matters and we don’t know what’s on it.
I also think the mocks are slow to raise and lower some guys.
Flowers was a late 2nd round pick on Wright’s mock about a month ago. Mayock was the first one to really tout him, saying Flowers was his best CB and now the guy is rising everywhere.
Manningham was in a lot of mocks to teams like Washington and then he fell and how he’s bouncing all over the place.
I have not seen Hardy ranked above Manningham. Maybe recently, but not before.
Seems to me Kelly is the one rising on all the boards. Earlier in the offseason he was behind everyone, now looks like the top pick. I haven’t seen what he’s done to deserve that.
Everything I have read is that he doesn’t get seperation. If he can’t get it in college, how’ds he get it in the pros?
“I don’t think I’m hyping him at all. His yard per catch dwarfs DeSean Jackon’s.”
That would be hyping. Two different QBs, two different systems, two diffent WRs, both small, one fast, one fragile - I believe neither worth a first round pick.
If Sweed, Kelly, Hardy and Thomas are all gone by #28 - there has to be better talent at a different position. If either Manningham or Jackson last to the middle of the second, move up to grab one.
Just my thoughts, not facts. Although that first statement about better talent is pretty close to a fact.
“Manningham has huge value at # 28. I bet he has a better grade than Steve Smith of the Giants”
Except Steve Smith had a decent combine, instead of a horrible one and Steve Smith projected to NFL slot WR a little different than a small, slow deep threat, with stone hands and glass body.
That’s over the top, but Manningham’s history indicates he could be a bust risk playing against bigger, stronger, and faster NFL DBs.
“Bernard Berrian just got paid big bucks to be the type of player Manningham was at Michigan and hopes to be in the NFL”
Jerry didn’t give Berrian any money. The Vikes did and just look at their WRs - very different needs than the Boys.
Forte played in the same Conference as Chris Johnson and averaged 200 total yards a game. If Forte would have returned 1 kickoff a game for 24 yards or 2 KOs a game for 12 yds each he would have had the same yards per game as Johnson. Instead he ran for 2127 yards with a 5.9ypc. CJ ran for 1400 with a 6.0ypc.
Forte might be as good and tough as MBIII with more speed. He has got the size and speed to block. Im hoping RBs drop as I would love this guy in the 3rd.
” think we first need to define #1 receiver.”
A WR that will make the play when a play is needed - cannot be single covered without the risk of giving up 6 - an elite #1 beats double coverage. Gets separation and has good hands. A threat to break/avoid a tackle and go the distance - got have good yards after catch. NFL production at least 1,000 yards and 10 TDs every year, remains healthy - no trick hammys. That’s my expectations for #1 WR.
Birdness, running bad a the combine doesnt mean anythng if you run well at your pro day. He ran better. I also read a report about his combine and they say he didnt look polished in his running. Like he just showed up an expected his speed to be there. He made a mistake that will cost him bucks but that doesnt mean he cant play. I worry more about his ability to get away from the line of scrimmage. Is he stong and sudden enough.
Steve Smith was known as a great, polished route runner, same as Manningham.
“Someone put a list of needs up the other day with CB rated first and then 5 empty slots before WR”
I understand that view for several reasons.
The O was dominant last year, the D wasn’t. Sure it’s a new scheme, but the secondary was the weakest link.
TO is one old potential injury waiting to happen, Tnew and Henry are both old potential injurys, so twice as likely to happen.
Glenn, Stanback, Hurd and Austin are behind TO, who’s behind Tnew and Henry - chirping crickets?
The 3rd CB plays every nickel package. The 3rd WR can be replaced with double TE set.
RB, WR and CB are needs! If Jerry want’s a young Tnew/Henry replacement he has to use a first round pick (maybe top of second). If Jerry wants a 3rd CB, he can wait.
Passing on CB at the bottom of the second round would be a huge risk for a team with NO 3rd CB.
“I’ve used Scott Wright’s mock for a guideline.”
Doesn’t Scott Wright have us taking my favorites Felix Jones and Manningham?
While Ryan and Brohm in the top 10 is possible, there’s no way the Jets take McKelvin over Howie Long Jr. So at least one top 3 CB should fall.
“I like the sound (look) of Chris Johnson. How low do you think we could pick him up? Bottom of 2nd? ”
We don’t at the bottom of the 2nd.
Speed rises, to me he’s the #4 RB and may even leapfrog Stewart’s bad toe. If Johnson is available at #28, he’s likely the pick however, Jerry can get a little less wow in his Barber complement later and reserve the slot at #28 for a different need.
Kelly to the Bills has been a consistant mock since he said he was coming out.
“Forte might be as good and tough as MBIII with more speed.”
Maybe falls, but not bottom of the 3rd. Won’t Parcell’s try to grab him to share with, not living up to the hype, Ronnie Brown?
Consider the Top WRs
Listed by Height
James Hardy 6′5″
Limas Sweed 6′4″
Malcolm Kelly 6′3″
Devin Thomas 6′1″
Mario Manningham 6′0″
Early Doucet 6′0″
DeSean Jackson 5′9″
Listed by Weight
Malcolm Kelly 224
James Hardy 217
Limas Sweed 216
Devin Thomas 215
Early Doucet 209
Mario Manningham 181
DeSean Jackson 169
Listed by Best 40 Time
DeSean Jackson 4.32
Devin Thomas 4.32
Limas Sweed 4.46
James Hardy 4.47
Malcolm Kelly 4.47
Early Doucet 4.5
Mario Manningham 4.6
Alphabetically Pros
DeSean Jackson - speed, burst, elusive return man
Devin Thomas - speed, elusive, vision, tough
Early Doucet - burst, hands, tough, elusive, vision, blocker
James Hardy - hands, leaper, bulk
Limas Sweed - hands, leaper, smooth, beats the jam
Malcolm Kelly - hands, blocker, bulk
Mario Manningham - burst, elusive, routes, deep threat
Alphabetically Cons
DeSean Jackson - lacks size, poor blocker
Devin Thomas - only one big season in college, lacks burst, raw, needs development
Early Doucet - trouble getting separation, needs work on route running, difficulty beating the jam
James Hardy - lacks burst, trouble getting separation, character concerns, needs work on route running
Limas Sweed - lacks burst, trouble getting separation
Malcolm Kelly - lacks explosion and burst
Mario Manningham - lacks bulk, needs to get stronger, trouble with the jam, not much of a blocker, character issues
“running bad a the combine doesnt mean anythng if you run well at your pro day”
No, skipping the Combine doesn’t hurt you if you run well at your proday. Choking at the Combine causes you to slide in the draft.
At this point prospects are no longer some dumb kid, top prospects are mentored by experienced agents. Players showcase their ability at the Combine. They prepare at speed camps and train specifically (take off, stride, form …) to reduce that 40 by a tenth or two. At the Combine, the prospects receive the same treatment on the same track with an electronic timer (well Bo Jackson was hand timed sub 4.2).
If Manningham didn’t prepare for the Combine and decided to run - he gets a red flag for being an idiot.
Now if he was injured, I can understand the vast improvement at his proday. Otherwise I continue with my belief that he is slow, fragile and can’t catch like a NFL starter should.
At least Troy Williamson is healthy and fast.
Good stuff BishopWest,
Which one is the probowler?
Any data on Caldwell, Nelson, Avery Hawkens or Royal?
He will lose some money but he has always been known as fast and he ran fast at his pro day. I said it will hurt in the money department but it still doesnt mean you can play.
If someone really liked him before the combine and he bombed at the combine he would still have a chance to prove he is fast. Thats one of the selling features of the combine. If you dont do well at the combine you can always try again at your pro day.
Troy is very healthy and very fast and he still cant play. Jerry Rice was a little slow but he could play.
Squidlo your post #78 last thread.
My original argument was about the drafting of a wide receiver in the first round because there was no real consensus for this WR class. Since as Raf said we don’t have the Cowboys board, I took a look at the RANKINGS of the players by NFL Draft Blitz and Scott Wright’s site to prove my point. The rankings do not include teams needs, just the top players rankings regardless of position.
Player Draft Blitz Scott Wright
RBs
DMAC 3 1
Mendenhall 11 11
Stewart 18 10
F. Jones 26 29
CBs
DRC 13 16
McKelvin 9 13
Jenkins 15 20
Talib 21 27
Flowers 53 64
WRs
Kelly 29 24
Hardy 27 38
D. Jackson 35 17
A Caldwell 44 ?
Doucet 38 48
Sweed 57 12
Manningham 70 41
OG
B. Albert 28 25
There is definitely a consensus for the RBs and QBs. (Let’s use 10 places to call it a consensus.)Andre Caldwell was not even rated as a top 100 player by Scott Wright. Look at the disparity for Sweed and Manningham to justify being 1st rounders. Albert is the top OG in the draft. He could probably take Kosiers spot today at 6″7″ 315 lbs. Imagine him next to Flo when we run left. I didn’t know you were so high on Joe Berger that we couldn’t use an upgrade.
AP 3rd Team All American, Albert is the best OG in a class without many good prospects. Is Albert the top OG because of his ability at OG or because he’s also projected at LT.
He’s tall, good bulk, has long arms cranked up an amazing 23 reps on the bench. The Steelers need him so he likely goes before #28 but do we need him at #22?
“He will lose some money but he has always been known as fast and he ran fast at his pro day”
I’m way too critical on Manningham - I just don’t like him in the first round. I believe we could trade down from #28 and still get him if he’s the must have guy.
Henne is getting hype again as a NFL QB, do any other top WR prospects have that benefit?
Hardy, Sweed, Kelly and Thomas have big bodies to go over DBs, Manningham doesn’t. If Manningham had hands like Bennett/Nelson or speed like Avery/Jackson/Royal, then I could see him in the first round.
Give me Chris Johnson over Manningham at #28. He will return kicks better than Teddy Ginn and still catch more balls than Manningham. If he learns to block, then he can spell Barber for those missing 10 plays a game.
I would not be surprised if Chris Johnson goes in the bottom quarter of the first round.
I would consider him at 28 if there as a player who could play both RB and WR. I’d leave him at RB but one who goes in motion and into patterns a lot.
I agree with those that really like Matte Forte.
I think he is a very very nice RB.
Either CJ or Forte would be incredible.
Maybe someone commented on this and I didn’t see it. I havent been reading as much due to time crunches but where does Zach Bowman fit in at CB?
I really do not know how to rate the top 2 which are Mckelvin and DRC in my mind.
Jenkins
Talib
Porter
Flowers
Bowman
Cason
Some pretty good corers will be picked up in the top and middle of the 2nd round. The scouts will be tested this year on the CBs ad the WRs.
I just pray we pick the right guys.
King