A Points Swap That Could Work

Posted: March 23, 2008 @ 3:15 pm

Dallas has two #1s and a very late 2nd.

It’s looking at players (Felix Jones, Antoine Cason, Jamaal Charles) who are rated in the early-to-mid 2nd round. The rumors are that it could use the 22nd pick on a veteran wideout or hope that a high rated player drops, as Brady Quinn did last year.

I think we would all feel better about moving up from 61 about a dozen spots and leave with three favored players. But how?

Talk to Atlanta. Consider, they have three 2nd rounders after trading D’Angelo Hall to the Raiders, the 34th (3rd in round) 37th (6th) and 48th (17th) overall.

Look at the points on this two-for-two swap:

Atlanta gets:

  • Dallas’ 28th overall — 660 pts.;
  • Dallas’ 61st overall — 292 pts.;
  • Total — 952 points

Dallas gets:

  • Atlanta’s 37th overall — 530 pts.;
  • Atlanta’s 48th overall — 420 pts.;
  • Total — 950 points

Call it a win-win. Both teams keep their initial number of overall picks. Atlanta keeps its highest 2nd round pick and gets to move into the late 1st. Dallas drops down nine spots from 28 but just as important, it moves up 13 spots from 61 to 48, allowing the Cowboys a shot at a quality CB or RB prospect. With these picks, Dallas can realistically think about Jones, Tracy Porter, Cason, Charles, Ray Rice and Justin King. If it wants to draft a WR here, James Hardy and Early Doucet would likely be available.

Comments

46 Responses to “A Points Swap That Could Work”

  1. 1
    kameleon_o on March 23rd, 2008 3:25 pm

    1st!!!!

  2. 2
    THEAIRFORCEBAT on March 23rd, 2008 3:34 pm

    That would be a great idea, and work out for both parties.

    Who knows if Atlanta would bite though.

  3. 3
    Fighter15 on March 23rd, 2008 4:00 pm

    Where does the Ocho-cinco (should be Ochenta-y-cinco, but I digress) trade fit into this trade scenario.

    I like it, but might rather have Stewart @ #22, Chad for #28, Pacman for the 5th, and Red Bryant/Frank Okam @ #61.

    They can take the rest of the draft off for all I care.

  4. 4
    Derrick on March 23rd, 2008 4:06 pm

    you aren’t getting Chad Johnson, cincy isn’t going to eat 8 mill on their cap, forget about what he says, he’s just looking for a new deal, thats all, he’s not going to be traded. The better option is Roy Williams in detroit.

  5. 5
    cormanman on March 23rd, 2008 4:18 pm

    I like that trade down. It is my #2 idea draft scenario. I think that most of us can agree that the idea would be to find one of the top 4 CBs there for us at #22 and then have the option at #28 of Stewart, one of the top WRs, or the trade down. I’m feeling the odds of the top CBs being there are decreasing.

    I am having difficulty seeing how we are going to pay for this.

    1) Ware
    2) Canty
    3) Newman
    4) Barber
    5) T.O.
    6) Hamlin
    7) Renegotiated contract for a WR that we trade for

    Each of those is a major contract and we are up against the cap right now. That doesn’t even include our draft picks.

    Ware - We can’t afford all of that. Clearly they will resign Ware. That’s a no brainer.

    Canty - I think we should do Canty now, as we haven’t seen as much obscene money for 3-4 DEs. If Ratliff is manning NT then Canty is easily our best DE.

    T.O. - If he’d do a two year extension then I think that’s a no brainer. He is a game changer and our offense is clearly much worse when he is not there. If T.O. walks then we need to sign an ELITE receiver to replace him.

    That leaves Newman, Hamlin, and Barber hanging out there somewhere. I don’t think we can keep all three, and it is conceiveable that we might only be able to afford one. You tell me:

    Newman - great player but will be 31 years old and looking for a mega deal that will cost as much as Hamlin and Barber combined. Good CBs can be found with high draft picks and can succeed as rookies.

    Barber - Heart of the team but plays a position that is easiest to replace in today’s NFL. Likely can replace 75-85% of his production with a 2nd-4th round draft pick.

    Hamlin - Many people don’t feel the love for Ken Hamlin, but they have very very short memories. It was only one season ago that our secondary was swiss cheese and anyone could go deep on us. That turned around last year and the only thing that changed in the secondary is that we added Hamlin. IMO he is a key player for us and is versatile enough to play SS or FS.

    I’d love to keep all three but I don’t think it’s possible. If Jerry is serious about adding another high dollar WR then I think we can only keep one.

    Tough choices are coming. It is CRITICAL that we don’t blow picks during this upcoming draft. While we don’t need to add any starters today (aside from nickel CB) we definitely need to add players that can start next year of the year after because we can’t pay everyone $7 million per.

  6. 6
    UnconventionalWisdom on March 23rd, 2008 4:20 pm

    Moving up in the second would be great. I’ve been advocating taking a WR with one of our firsts (or trading for one). But I’d be oay with an using an early second on a WR like Hardy or Doucett. I’m just afraid a WR of that quality will be gone by the Cowboys’ pick in the second. There always seems to be a run on WRs in the late first and early second.

  7. 7
    Trey on March 23rd, 2008 4:29 pm

    The da of solid corners falling in the draft may be over. Dallas is not the only team pressing over the fact that top corners are getting paid 10MM a year.

    It makes drafting a sure one make a whole lot of sense. Corners will move up boards for the next few years.

  8. 8
    THEAIRFORCEBAT on March 23rd, 2008 6:13 pm

    I know that Jerry wants to trade for a wideout, but I don’t think Roy or Chad is going anywhere.

    Boldin might be an option, but it looks like Arizona wants to keep him.

  9. 9
    Luke. on March 23rd, 2008 6:42 pm

    A month or two ago when the rumors first started flying about Detroit’s WR Roy Williams being on the trading block I couldn’t believe our luck and didn’t understand why we weren’t doing everything possible to get this guy here in Dallas.

    Then I heard how much money that he was after. And then I understood.
    Chad Johnson has also mentioned that he expects to get paid the big bucks but that he just doesn’t want it from Cincy. Anquan Boldin wants a new deal and that means big dollars too.

    Cincy says they won’t trade Chad. Detroit says they won’t trade Williams. And Arizona has said they won’t trade Boldin.

    While I’d like to see a proven top quality target brought in (Williams is still my favorite of the group) I don’t see how we can afford these types of guys even if they’re available?

    Could the whole “we’re working a trade because we don’t like the First Round WR’s” line be smoke?

  10. 10
    bigmoney on March 23rd, 2008 6:48 pm

    cornmanman,

    Very good post. (#5)

    Realistic and logical.

  11. 11
    jarhead on March 23rd, 2008 6:51 pm

    cormanman,
    three of the guys you mention above are quite young and can get money that will be spread over 5-6 years, allowing cap-managable deals.

    TO already has a healthy cap hit so re-working his deal is easier than it sounds, he can get paid without counting any more against the cap than he already does over the next two years.

    newman is the tricky one b/c of his age, but signing all of these guys is not as hard as you make it sound, unless they decide they are adamant about testing the market.

    considering dallas’ contender status and overall stability, i’m not convinced they will be.

  12. 12
    Gray on March 23rd, 2008 6:52 pm

    Raf-

    did you run across this mock?

    http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7941664?MSNHPHCP&GT1=39000

    I would do it but I am hoping that Stewart falls to 22.

  13. 13
    StillHateTheGiants on March 23rd, 2008 6:56 pm

    cormanman,

    I agree with most of what you say. The cap situation makes me very nervous because we’ve made some bade decisions that will hurt us (e.g., Roy Williams, Brady James). Both those guys were over paid in my opinion and can’t be cut for cap reasons. Jarhead makes a good point about TO’s cap hit. It’s already high so a new deal may actually save money. A big if, but if we can draft well this year for a CB (or 2) and RB, it may make it easier next year to decide what to do.

  14. 14
    bigmoney on March 23rd, 2008 6:57 pm

    If we make several high draft choices JJ and crew will be scrambling to sign everyone before training camp starts. He’ll have to drop starters to sign these guys.

    Look for these players to be dealt prior to or during the draft. It’s the only way to clear cap space.

    I also think JJ is gambling on there being an uncapped season and it increasing a great deal afterware.

    This is a big gamble. If this strategy slaps him in the face there might be a fire sale of starters.

  15. 15
    Luke. on March 23rd, 2008 7:16 pm

    The Galloway article also says that the Cowboys had a deal in place with Javon Walker but the Raiders got too expensive for them. How will Chad, Roy or Boldin be cheaper?

  16. 16
    bigmoney on March 23rd, 2008 7:21 pm

    Of all the players metioned above I believe that TO will be the only one that will cooperate to help the team.

    His cap hit will be above 5 mil this year. To get it down to 3 over the next 3 years would cost another 4 mil. In the third year he will be 37 years old entering the season (12/7/73).

    This is an average of an 2 mil over the last 2 years. If we give him something up front it’s less.

    With this being said, he would have to take a cut in pay or play until he collect social security to make out.

  17. 17
    Rafael Vela on March 23rd, 2008 8:07 pm

    Gray,

    I would do that in a second if Jenkins was there, but I would push for my deal with Atlanta rather than the one they propose. Then you can get:

    22. Jenkins;
    37. best RB on the board;
    48. best WR on the board.

    If you do Fox’s proposed deal you take Bryant at 61.

    One problem with this mock. Jenkins WON’T be there. I keep hearing Tampa Bay loves him and would snap him up in a heartbeat if he was available at 20.

    I believe that. Their CBs are older than Dallas’.

  18. 18
    scout on March 23rd, 2008 8:08 pm

    http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/profile.php?pyid=57291

    According to NFL Draft Scout, the Cowboys have been linked to
    Mario Manningham. Just putting it out there. It is the first I have heard of it.

    What ever happens, Dallas needs to keep the # 22 pick, because of the very distict possibility of this:

    1. Miami Vernon Gholston
    2. Rams Chris Long
    3. Falcons Glenn Dorsey
    4. Raiders Darren McFadden
    5. Chiefs Jake Long
    6. NYJ Derrick Harvey
    7. N.E. Leodis McKelvin
    8. Baltim. DRC
    9. Cincinn Ellis
    10.N.O. Rivers

    Parcells will take Gholston over Chris Long. Gholston has more upside, and he is more athletic. Parcells wanted Spears over Merriman and Ware, and he learned his lesson. Long has been compared to Patrick Kerney. The Rams signed a tackle in free agency, and Leonard Little is has been playing since 1998. That went DE last year, and they will do it again. Orlando Pace, whom the Rams still have, is a better prospect than Jake Long, and Parcells passed him over for a linebacker in a trade down. This time, Parcells is stuck.

    The Falcons have a defensive coach, and their GM is from the Patriots. Asso, they have all those second round picks to go after Chad Henney or Brian Brohom in a trade up. I don’t think Matt Ryan is worth a top three pick. He will fall. Dorsey is a safe bet for the money.

    The Raiders passed on Larry Fitzgeral in favor of Robert Gallory. Al Davis will not make another mistake in the top five.

    Derrick Harvey had a monster work out in Gainesville. He has entered the top ten. He will either go to the Patriots or Jets. Both teams have scheduled private workouts. The Patriots would take him, but spygate heats up as the Jets spoil NE’s plan.

    Baltimore will pass on Matt Ryan, and this will cause him to fall where the Vikings will nab him. Baltimore loves McKelvin, but he is gone. They take DRC instead. Ozzie Newsome moved back into round one to get Kyle Boller. I bet he tries this strategy again.

    11. Buffalo Malcolm Kelly
    12. Denver Ryan Clady
    13. Carolina Philip Merling
    14. Chicago Jeff Otah
    15. Detroit Chris Williams
    16. Arizona Aqib Talib
    17. Minn Matt Ryan
    18. Houston Mike Jenkins
    19. Phil Kenny Phillips
    20. T.B. Devin Thomas
    21. Washing Limas Sweed
    22. Dallas Rashard Mendenhall

    If Kelly passes his pro day, Kelly is the pick at # 11. Denver will choose between Clady, DeSean Jackson, and Mendenhall. I strongly think they will take the left tackle. Their o-line needs help, bad. They have an unproven third round pick at the LT position, and the the Broncoes want to win now. Plus, they have Travis Henry, and the Broncos think they can plug players in at RB. Jackson should trump Mendenhall if they pass on the tackle, which I think is unlikely.

    Carolina wants Harvey, but he is gone. They need a DE to play on the other side of Julius Peppers in order to try and help him get his mojo back. They need a tackle, but they would take Clady over Williams, but Clady is gone. They will take the Vikings’ player. They have a number one pick at running back right now. Their defense needs help.

    This is where the four last hurdles for Mendenhall start.

    Chicago already has top 5 money tied up into a running back. Guess who has sat down with Matt Forte and watched him workout? Yep. Lovie Smith. If they are looking at Forte, they are looking at Tashard Choice, Kevin Smith, and probably others. They need to win now, especially with the hated Packers getting the division away from them last year. They need a quarterback and could look at Ryan right here. Their o-line has a gaping hole at tackle. They could use a guard too. Jeff Otah should be the pick., because they can break him in at guard or move him to right tackle. The only thing that could screw this up is if the Chiefs reached on Otah if they missed out on Jake Long. I think the Chiefs would take McKelvin if that happened. The Bears like Gosder Cherilus and might try to trade down to get him. The fans want the hometown hero, but they will be disappointed. The deep running back class and a bad offensive line or the need for a quarterback trump Mendenhall.

    Guess who Matt Millen is eyeing? Yep. Matt Forte. Millen will look at Chris Williams, Rashard Mendenhall, and Jerod Mayo. That is two very good players in dire postions of need vs the star runningback. The games are won up front, and the Lions ol-line sucks. Chris Williams is the pick. The takles rise, and the running backs fall. Williams is definately a top 15 pick. The Eagles may try to move up and grab him, but I doubt they will be successful.

    Arizona has a gaping hole at CB, and they want to win now. The fast rising Aqib Talib would be perfect in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ zone blitz sheme their coach dreams of. They want a running back, but their coach saw Willie Parker do the job, and he wasn’t even drafted. He can go after Cory Boyd in the later rounds. They could look at Antione Cason here. Quentin Groves would be nice, but it is too high for him here.

    The last hurdle is Houston, and it will be cleared. They play the Colts twice, the Jags twice, and the Titans twice. They want to win now, and their coach comes from the Denver system and philosophy. They don’t have a second round pick. If they want a good corner, like the Cardinals, they have to take him now. Jacques Reeves isn’t the complete answer. Dunta Robinson will miss half the year. Mike Jenkins is the pick for sure. It fits their profile. They want to beat the Colts, and what they have now at corner will not cut it. If Reggie Smith has a great workout, he could be the pick at # 18. He can be moved back to safety when Robinson returns.

    After this, Mendenhall belongs to Dallas if they want him.

    I would take him in a blink. He is a top 15 player.

    Stephen Jackson was the number one RB in a weaker class, and he fell to 22.

    I say Jonathan Stewart would be grabbed by Seattle for sure. Holmgren knows what he has now, and Stewart could be a star.

    This is long, but I thought I better explain.

    Rashard Mendenahall could be a Cowboy.

  19. 19
    Rafael Vela on March 23rd, 2008 8:09 pm

    Luke,

    I took Galloway’s statement to mean Dallas thought Walker was asking too much *given his knee problems.* Not that they could not afford him.

  20. 20
    torchinDefense on March 23rd, 2008 8:09 pm

    Rafael,

    I think it’s a big possibility that Atlanta will want to trade back into the 1st to get their QB.

    That is basically what I said a few posts back but I had traded for their #37 & #68 for our #28 & #92.

    #22 - Jenkins CB DRC CB or Talib CB (in that order available)

    if all three players are off the board then best WR, Hardy or Devin Thomas

    #28 - traded for Atlanta’s #37 and #48.

    R2 - James Hardy (#37 from Atlanta)

    R2 - Felix Jones RB or Chris Johnson RB (in that order avail)

    R3 - #68 from Atlanta
    Duane Browne or Carl Nicks OT

    R3 - Red Bryant DT

    R4 - traded to Tennessee for Pacman Jones

    R5 - Duane Tribble CB

    R6 - Jamie Silva SS or Chris Horton SS

    R7 - Mackenzy Bernadeau OG

  21. 21
    scout on March 23rd, 2008 8:13 pm

    Detroit, Houston, Chicago, and Atlanta are looking at Matt Forte in the second round.

    Don’t forget Kevin Smith and Tashard Choice. These are options for them as well. Choice had a monster work out. Ray Rice, Mike Hart, Cory Boyd… ect…

    These teams can get a RB later. The tackle and corner and DEs will be gone.

  22. 22
    Rafael Vela on March 23rd, 2008 8:20 pm

    scout and bigmoney,

    The Mendenhall scenario brings up a risky prospect — if you land a Mendenhall, do you then use MARION BARBER as bait for a top of the line WR? As you said, lots of teams early in the 2nd want Matt Forte, a poor man’s Barber. Think Detroit might not send you Roy Williams for him straight up? Then you still have the 28 and can do the Atlanta deal and get another CB and/or another RB or a NT there?

    There’s your cap savings, bigmoney. You have to give the WR an extension but Mendenhall’s money at 22 is small compared to the huge extension Barber will command.

    As I said, that will be seen as a risky move, but there’s your WOW in spades.

  23. 23
    Rafael Vela on March 23rd, 2008 8:25 pm

    actually, I would not use the 37 and 48 on a WR if you trade for one.

    I would take another CB at 37, the best of the Porter/Cason duo left and at 48 I could still get Jamaal Charles, cause Dallas still needs a second RB.

    Unless they want to trade down a few spots from 48, say to 55 or so if they can find a partner, get another mid level pick and take Red Bryant.

    I saw a top 100 that rated him in the mid 60s, just at the start of the 3rd round.

    Many people have said this already on site but it bears repeating — if Dallas likes him, and I know they talked to him, they can’t let him get to round 3, cause Miami will open the 3rd by calling his name.

  24. 24
    Luke. on March 23rd, 2008 9:34 pm

    Raf, I think you’re right about the Galloway article but I still can’t see how we can afford a major signing, I would like to be wrong and land Williams though but not Chad Johnson.

    Also, I don’t see the threat that Miami is to take Red Bryant. Bill Parcells didn’t draft a First Day NT while he was with Dallas. He drafted Ratliff and Mountavious in the 6th and 7th rounds and that was after he’d been here for a few years.

    The Dolphins have a big bunch of young guys at the Defensive Tackle position; Steve Fifta (6′0” 312), Paul Soliai (6′4” 344), Randy Starks (6′3” 312), Rodrique Wright (6′5” 300), Chase Page (6′4” 295).

    And now he’s acquired Jason Ferguson to be the veteran/leader and teach the young guys.

    I don’t see any reason for them to draft a NT at all and they’ve got much bigger needs.

  25. 25
    Rafael Vela on March 23rd, 2008 10:02 pm

    Luke,

    That was because there were no NTs he wanted with a high pick. He took LONG looks at the Michigan NTs but eventually passed on both.

    How many of those kids played last year?

  26. 26
    scout on March 23rd, 2008 11:04 pm

    Rafael,

    That is an interesting trade with Atlanta for sure. It makes good sense. The Falcons may be nervous about the Dolphins taking their QB in round 2. The Ravens would be looking to get into round one as well, but they only have one 2nd round pick.

    It would be risky, but I would do the Barber for Roy Williams trade if I could keep that # 28 pick. Then you could do the Atlanta trade if you wanted to.

    What about this:

    Draft Mendenhall or Stewart at # 22.
    Trade Marion Barber and Patrick Crayton to Detroit for Roy Williams.

    Then at # 28 draft DeSean Jackson or Mario Manningham. I prefer Manningham.

    Then you could put Manningham in the slot in his rookie year. I know he can play flanker for sure. When he gets stronger, he will be a star and can play all three positions.

    This doesn’t solve the cornerback depth, but Pacman is probably coming.

    You can draft a cornerback in round three by trading down into round four. Antwan Moulden (Eastern Kentucky)

    It doesn’t help you move up for Red Bryant, but Ahytuba Rubin is ranked right behind Red Bryant. You can probably get him in round two.

    This would be your wow on offense.

    Roy Williams, Rashard Mendenhall, and Mario Manningham

    That would be your WoW on offense like you said above.

    I like Marion Barber, but a running back can be replaced. Ware, Newman, Canty, Owens, ect… are very hard players to find and just about impossible to get your hands on when you are a winning team.

    If you could give me Roy Williams and Mario Manningham in the slot, I would trade Barber.

  27. 27
    scout on March 23rd, 2008 11:05 pm

    Another player the Panthers might like is Dan Conner. Doesn’t Beason play on the outside? Conner would be another player that keeps them away from Mendenahall.

  28. 28
    scout on March 23rd, 2008 11:07 pm

    I would try to keep Crayton, but if I could trade him for Manningham (in order to keep the 28th pick), I would do it.

  29. 29
    scout on March 23rd, 2008 11:16 pm

    The Bengals sent Marvin Lewis to look at James Hardy. Hardy had a great workout. He could be had at pick # 28.

    Here is the thing about Chad Johnson.

    The Eagles outbid the Patriots for Moss. They could offer up # 19 and more money. That would get the Bengals Kelly or Thomas to replace him.

    Also, I wathced a Monday night Bengals game. Johnson was suppossed to run a certain inside route into trafic. He went off his route and ran towards the endzone, but Palmer threw the ball where Johnson was suppossed to be. The ball was picked off, and Johnson got all over Palmer and blamed him.

    I don’t like Johnson. I would rather add Roy Williams and add Manningham (Mario draws comparisons to Marivin Harrison, and Breer compared him to Chad Johnson.)

    Also, Chad probably said he wanted to play for Dallas to get the Redskins and Eagles in a frenzy. That would draw his value up and get him more money.

    Roy Williams is from Texas. Pay the guy from Texas, but Newman needs his money. He deserves it. Dallas needs to take care of him now, so he can play freely and not have to think about an injury hurting his payday.

  30. 30
    Rafael Vela on March 24th, 2008 12:47 am

    scout,

    Jerry could also just be gaming everybody, trying to distract us from real interest in a WR at 28.

    Personnel folks are known to fib a lot this time of year…

  31. 31
    jevans1729 on March 24th, 2008 5:47 am

    Scout

    We all understand that Dallas needs a WR and you like Manningham. We got it. However, what is Detroit’s incentive to take on Crayton’s contract and Barber who will be an UFA this year, to give up a player they don’t want to trade? It makes no sense.

    Jerry’s history and what he has said recently do not support the WR in the 1st round scenario. You see him pursuing other teams WRs before taking one in the 1st round. Be patient on the WRS. One will be there in the 2nd round.

  32. 32
    burmafrd on March 24th, 2008 7:22 am

    Manningham is seriously over rated by all too many people. He is mostly tease and very little action in the BIG games.

  33. 33
    AzCowboy on March 24th, 2008 9:28 am

    Peter King is beating the drum this morning for Dallas to move up to draft McFadden. Yikes. I had hoped that hype was dead. He also has Chad Johnson coming to Dallas during training camp when the Bengals can’t get him into camp. And then there is Pacman…not sure where the money comes from….but triple yikes.

  34. 34
    AzCowboy on March 24th, 2008 9:31 am

    Anyone know what it will cost to release Terry Glenn after June 1st and what the cap savings would be? Unless his cost to the cap is a push, I can’t see JJ keeping him.

  35. 35
    eightball on March 24th, 2008 9:32 am

    As soon as last season ended I have thought we would draft a CB with 22 and/or 28. When Stewart got hurt I started to think there was a chance that he may drop to us, and he could be a good pick. Now, the more I look at other team needs and draft history I agree that Mendenhall and Stewart might be available at 22. It seems that CB’s, speed pass rushers and LT’s shoot up the board while RB’s drop to the late teens and early twenties. The only 2 exceptions to this are the can’t miss super back type, Reggie Bush or Tomlinson (McFadden this year), and in 2005 when 3 RB’s were drafted in the top 5. All three are still BIG question marks in the league. The lack of production by the 2005 trio of RB’s will work in out favor if we want to draft Mendenhall or Stewart. At this point I am officially changing my opinion. If either Mendenhall or Stewart are available at 22 I think we should grab them assuming all of the top CB’s are gone. Also, Barber’s style of running makes him a huge injury risk if he is the lead back. Finally, when talking about RB’s for Dallas the #22 seems appropriate.

  36. 36
    BishopWest on March 24th, 2008 10:06 am

    I read a lot of speculation on when there is a “run” on a certain position in the draft.

    Is there a “run” on DBs in the mid-1st round?

    Do RBs really drop to the late 1st round?

    Will quality WRs be available in the late 2nd round?

    Well, I took the time to do the math.

    Just considering draft trends in the last 5 years, with an eye on the positions that we are most interested in: DB, WR, and RB.

    Here are my findings:

    DBs - There is no “run” on DBs in the first round at all. Consistency is found throughout the early, mid, and late 1st round.
    Early 1st - 10 drafted
    Mid 1st - 11 drafted
    Late 1st - 10 drafted
    *The run on DBs comes late in the 2nd round - 17 drafted.

    WR - There seems to be a late 1st round “run’ on receivers.
    Early 1st - 10 drafted
    Mid 1st - 4 drafted
    Late 1st - 9 drafted
    * However, a total of 22 receivers were drafted in the 1st round and 18 more in the 2nd round. An earlier study of mine found that late 2nd round WRs are just as productive in their rookie seasons as late 1st round receivers.

    RB - There is a “run” on running backs late in the 1st round.
    Early 1st - 5 drafted
    Mid 1st - 2 drafted
    Late 1st - 7 drafted

    Other observations:

    There is a huge “run” on DL in the mid 1st round.
    Early 1st - 7 drafted
    Mid 1st - 18 drafted
    Late 1st 7 drafted

    There is another “run” on DL late in the 2nd round.
    Early 2nd - 5 drafted
    Mid 2nd - 4 drafted
    Late 2nd - 12 drafted

    There is also a huge “run” on LB in the mid 1st round.
    Early 1st - 3 drafted
    Mid 1st - 11 drafted
    Late 1st - 5 drafted

    The “run” on Centers and Guards comes in the Early 2nd round.

    The “run” on TEs comes in the 2nd round.

    The “runs” that I’ve listed here are the only observable “runs” in the last five years of the draft.

  37. 37
    AzCowboy on March 24th, 2008 10:10 am

    Good stuff BishopWest. Would you care to speculate on what the obscene money that CBs in FA are getting will do to the demand of CBs in the draft. I think they will go early and often.

  38. 38
    buster on March 24th, 2008 10:28 am

    All of these scenarios are giving me a headache; there are so many good options. Here’s my prediction: On draft day, JJ gets a call from Obama asking JJ to be his VP. JJ immediately accepts and hands the keys to the Dallas Cowboys over to his son Stephen. Stephen, shocked by his fathers VP asperations (especially since he’s a Rebpublican and voted for McCain in the primaries), immediately calls Bill Parcells and offers a straight-up trade - MBIII for Ricky “smoke-em-if-ya-got-em” Williams. Realizing the dumb-ass move he just made, and a weird stroke of irony, Stephen trades all of the 08 picks to Miami for the 1st pick of the draft, and picks McFadden.

    Hey, you never know, it may happen…

  39. 39
    BishopWest on March 24th, 2008 10:40 am

    Continuation of Post #36

    I failed to mention that there is also a late 1st round “run” on QBs, but then QB nearly disappears in the 2nd round.
    Early 1st - 8 drafted
    Mid 1st - 3 drafted
    Late 1st - 5 drafted

    Early 2nd - 2 drafted
    Mid 2nd - 2 drafted
    Late 2nd - 1 drafted

  40. 40
    BishopWest on March 24th, 2008 11:38 am

    What does the complied data from post #36 really mean for the Cowboys 2008 Draft?

    If we want a CB, we can stay put at #22 or #28 and a quality DB should be available.
    If we choose to wait until the 2nd round, and knowing that there is a late 2nd round “run” on DBs, we may want to trade up a little in the 2nd round to get the guy we want of those that remain on the board.

    If we want a RB, we know that there is a late 1st round “run” on running backs, we can stay put and select whoever is available at #22 or #28 (maybe Stewart will fall, due to injury); by the time our late 2nd round pick arrives at #61, according to the trends in the last five years, the top 5 RBs will be off the board (McFadden, Mendenhall, Stewart, Jones, and Johnson.) Who could still be available at #61; maybe Matt Forte, Ray Rice or Jamaal Charles.

    If we want a WR, we know that JJ doesn’t really like to pick WRs in the 1st round, however this year could be an exception. Trends say that there is a late 1st round run on receivers. We can stay put at #22 and #28 and see which WR is available; if we wait to go WR at #61, trends say that the top 7-10 WRs will be off the board (Sweed, Kelly, Jackson, Thomas, Hardy, Doucet, Manningham, Royal, Nelson, and Caldwell.)

    I like the late 2nd round RBs more than the late 2nd round WRs.

    My choice would be to go CB, WR at #22 and #28, and wait for RB at #61.

  41. 41
    Chandus on March 24th, 2008 11:58 am

    Bishop:
    Things have changed, there’s going to be a run because of 2 reasons:

    1. Because of the silly that teams are throwing around to average players and,

    2. Because more teams will follow the Indianapolis and New England way to do things on Offense, which is opening up Defenses with a wide and talented attack.

  42. 42
    Chandus on March 24th, 2008 11:59 am

    Number 1 should read:

    1. Because of the silly money that teams are throwing around to average players and,

  43. 43
    Chandus on March 24th, 2008 12:06 pm

    jevans:
    And what’s your reasoning off Dallas picking Dwayne Bowe last year if he would have been on the board in Spencer’s place? The scouting department wanted him and they were as high on him as they were on Spencer. Jerry would have vetoed the move? I don’t think so, Draft Boards are compiled and agreed by the Front Office before the Draft.

    And everything that the owners are saying right now, or what some sources are telling to the media, should be taken like a grain of salt on a beach, there’s just too much false information.

  44. 44
    CaptainComeback on March 24th, 2008 12:55 pm

    Corman, post 6 Nice post. I’ve been banging this drum since early February when I was on my anti MB3 campaign. You broke it down pretty nicely, I probably should have done that in order to get my point across clearer. Although I’ve sway a little bit on MB3, I would not object to letting rid of him.

    MUST SIGNS:
    Ware
    Hamlin
    Canty
    T.O.

    LET THEM GO IF THEY
    WANT THE DOUGH:
    Newman
    Barber

    Hopefully we can replace in the draft.

  45. 45
    jevans1729 on March 24th, 2008 1:28 pm

    Chandus Yours #43

    My reasoning is based on several observations. The first is that Jerry has not drafted a WR in the first round since 1991. Also, if you look at the roster, our top two WRS (T.O. and Glenn) were FA signings. The rest are either 7th round picks or UFA’s.

    However, while I think your Bowe argument is valid, Jerry was looking at Ellis coming off an achilles injury and he couldn’t possibly know that Glenn would be injured. Therefore, even if Bowe was on the board, I think the best pass rusher will always trump the WR in JJ’s mind.

    My final point is not so much the WR positon but the WRs that are available in this draft. There just doesn’t seem to be any consensus about any of them. I’m not personally against taking WR in the 1st round. However,with this group, they all seem to have some warts that could bite you. I just think the 2nd round is a safer place for this group when you consider all of the needs we have and the money we have to spend on 1st round picks.

  46. 46
    CaptainComeback on March 24th, 2008 1:32 pm

    j evans,
    Who would you take with the other 1st round pick? A RB, NT, SS?

    If 2 CB’s are there it might be hard to pass up, pending on Adam Jones.

    To me the RB sohuld not be taken until the 2nd round. But all the specualtion in BS anyway because we don’t know who is going to be available.

    To all, As far as getting Roy, CJ or BJ.
    Forget it. These teams aren’t parting with them plus they will cost too much money. Haven’t we learned anytihng this offeseason.

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