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Taylor Dancing Onto the Cowboys’ Radar?

Jerry Jones employed Dancing With the Stars champion Emmitt Smith. Might he be entertaining thoughts of trading for the latest DWTS finalist?

The NFL Network’s Adam Schefter lists Dallas as one of five teams considering a deal for Dolphins DE/OLB Jason Taylor. Schefter writes:

Of all the potential landing spots, none is more intriguing than Dallas. It is a longshot, granted, but Cowboys owner Jerry Jones never can be ruled out. The Cowboys have debated the merits of trading for Taylor and they already hold additional draft picks in 2009 -– Cleveland’s in the third round, Detroit’s in the fourth. Dallas could decide to package picks and/or a disgruntled player such as defensive end Greg Ellis or safety Roy Williams that former Cowboys coach Bill Parcells knows well.

Dallas knows its loaded at defensive end now with Ellis, Demarcus Ware and last year’s first-round pick, Anthony Spencer. But Cowboys owner Jerry Jones never bypasses big-name, talented players such as Taylor. He has thought about the possibility of Taylor in Dallas and, despite the long odds, could wind up taking action.

Let’s parse Schefter’s passage. First, he’s one of the better information guys around, so when he writes that the organization has discussed Taylor we can be sure it has happened.

Next, he lists Philadelphia as one of the possible suitors. Keeping Taylor away from a division rival could be as much a spur for the Dallas brass as adding Taylor on its own merits.

Next, there’s the combination of Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland and the headache-for-headache factor. We know that Jones is not swayed by Greg Ellis’ paranoid ramblings but would he swap Ellis for Taylor?

Consider these factoids:

• Greg Ellis is 32, Jason Taylor is 33.
• Ellis had a career-high 12.5 sacks last year, his first in double digits.
• Taylor has averaged 12.9 sacks the last six seasons. He has six double-digit sack seasons.

Some people point to the Dolphins’ 1-15 ‘07 and imply that Taylor is losing his edge. I’m not so sure. He had 11.0 sacks last year. His unit certainly collapsed, dropping from 4th in yards allowed in ‘06 to 23rd in ‘07. That was due to injuries and a horrible rush defense. Miami’s pass defense rating remained steady, actually rising from 5th in ‘06 to 4th last year. The rush defense, however dropped from 8th in ‘06 to 32nd last year.

Taylor was one of the few Dolphins defenders still playing hard last year. And let’s not forget his stellar ‘06, when he won the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year award. K.C. Joyner wrote this of Taylor’s campaign in Scientific Football ‘07:

One of the joys of watching tapes is when you come across a phenomenal player. I always find watching ’80s Giants games fun because I can’t wait to see Lawrence Taylor put an asskicking on some other player. When Taylor was on his game, he was unstoppable and it made for compelling viewing.

I had been waiting impatiently for such a player to show up on tape the first three years that I broke down, but I never saw one. Dwight Freeney came close to reaching the LT level in 2004 but he wasn’t quite that dominant. I had begun to think that phenoms such as LT were extinct until I saw Jason Taylor play last year.

Taylor was capable of winning a game all by himself. Just look at some of his performances last year:

• Week 7 versus Green Bay — had three tackles, three forced fumbles and two sacks in the first quarter alone;
• Week 9 versus Chicago — had an interception return for a touchdown, a sack, a forced fumble and two passes defensed;
• Week 10 versus Kansas City — made a great play to get into the passing lane near the Chiefs’ goal line to get his hands on a pass. He dropped the interception but it was still a phenomenal read of the play and one that most defensive ends couldn’t make.
• Week 11 versus Minnesota — Got into the passing lane again, this time with the Dolphins up 17-13 late in the 4th quarter but with the Vikings on Miami’s 47 yard line with 3:39 left. He made the pick this time and returned it for a touchdown… As if this wasn’t enough, he also got a sack and knocked down a pass on Minnesota’s next drive.
• Week 12 at Detroit — He didn’t put a sack on the board in this game, but he still was able to draw a 15-yard facemask penalty and a 10-yard illegal-use-of-hands penalty due to his pass rushing.

And the events listed aren’t a full accounting of what he did last year. They do show that by midseason, Taylor was playing at a level that only the greatest players ever reach.

The evidence would make a swap for Taylor seem like a no-brainer. His pass defense numbers in ‘06 would make any of the Cowboys’ corners jealous. But there is this factor called the salary cap. Taylor is due $7.5 million in ‘08. Greg Ellis is due far less and the Cowboys may figure that they’re getting far more bang for their buck putting up with Greg’s pouting.

Still, there’s a big part of me that would love to see Dallas fleece Bill Parcells for his stubborn and to my mind silly decision to shun Taylor last month when the player tried to visit his new GM. Why? Because he’s dancing on a TV show? Is Parcells one of those Norman Mailer-esque old schoolers who think a player loses his purple mojo if he goes (gasp) ballroom dancing!?  And does the manly Tuna — who made time in his busy Valley Ranch schedule for regular hair dye jobs — fear his masculinity will suffer if he lets Taylor in the same room?

To quote that man expert Peggy Bundy — the mind wobbles.

If the Cowboys could also get out from under Roy Williams’ contract and make him the Akin Ayodele in a second two-for-one Dolphins deal, I’d slip on my soft shoes and stroll a little myself.

And you know you would too.

Accelerated signing bonuses make exceptions for no team, however, so I’m going to second Schefter and rate any Jason Taylor-to-Dallas deal as a longshot. (sigh) A fan can dream, can’t he? I’ll take a QB-sacking dancer over two pouters any day.

A Tough Schedule Innoculates You. It Does Not Weaken You

Pat Kirwan writes on NFL.com today about Dallas’ ‘08 chances:

The Cowboys have a quarterback in Tony Romo who can win in this league, a defense that can apply pressure and a few playmakers like Terrell Owens. That adds up to Dallas likely being in the hunt.

Coach Wade Phillips has the demeanor to lead these players and keep an even keel. The NFC East is brutal and there are questions surrounding DB Roy Williams, as well as the second wide receiver and possibly the nose tackle positions. My fear for the Cowboys is the same worry I have for the Giants, Eagles and Redskins. They may cannibalize themselves during the season leaving very little for the deep playoff run.

I have a lot of respect for Pat Kirwin but I have to ask — did you watch football last year, Pat?

The NFC East put three teams in the playoffs. The Cowboys, Redskins and Giants beat up on each other during the season. The Cowboys swept New York, winning each regular season game by ten points.

Were the Giants too beaten up to perform in January? I don’t think so.

Let’s go back to ‘92. The Cowboys went 13-3 with two of the losses coming against the Eagles and Redskins, who joined Dallas in the playoffs. The Eagles embarrassed Dallas in an October Monday Night game.

Was Dallas too pooped to play? No. They destroyed the Eagles in the third matchup and rolled to a title.

Having tough, regular opponents can forge discipline and toughness onto a roster — if it has the talent. The ‘92 Cowboys were flawless in their postseason and their tightness got them past a very talented 49ers squad. Dallas was not awed because they had to get up several times that year for the Redskins and the Eagles.

The same was true of last year’s Giants. They raised their game against Tampa Bay, Dallas, Green Bay and New England. They eliminated mistakes and that was the difference in their last three games, all nail biters.

Don’t worry about the Cowboys. They’ve got the talent. Attention to detail, or a lack thereof, will determine their fate, not accumulated bruises or fatigue.

A Sneak Peek at ‘08

I was a guest on The PigskinPodcast last night.  You can hear the interview here.

I don’t normally speak this fast, but I was told we were going to squeeze a lot into ten minutes.

Stand By Your Blog

We passed the hat just after the draft to raise camp funds and got some great support.  We’re going to pass it a second time, with a slightly more urgent appeal.  We’ve raised a decent percentage that should cover many of my expenses to Oxnard.

The questions are now whether I can afford to stay for one week or two.  My ideal itinerary would have me settling down at Oxnard the first weekend and covering the first full two weeks of camp leading up to Dallas’ first pre-season game versus the Chargers.

One week or two will depend on your generosity.

As you also know from our recent posts, we’ve incurred some unexpected legal and start-up fees.  You can help us retire those and move on.  Use the Amazon or PayPal links on the right hand side.  If you prefer snail mail, use the e-mail link and we’ll get you an address.

Friends don’t let friends rely on newspapers for camp coverage.  Thank you.

The Fantastic Four — 2008 Edition

Back in 2005, I first pointed out that the NFL undergoes incredible churn from year to year. Between 2000 and 2006 28 teams that had been losers made the playoffs the following year, a steady four per season. I dubbed these big standings-jumpers the Fantastic Four. Submitted for your perusal:

The system coughed a bit last year, with the NFL Fantastic Four slipping to a Fantastic Two. What happened?

Not much really. There was still incredible churn, with six of the twelve ‘06 teams missing the postseason in ‘07. 2007 turned into the Revenge of the 8-8ers, with the Giants, Steelers, Jaguars and Titans going from .500 to the playoffs. New York, of course, rolled all the way to a championship. The Browns jumped from 4-12 to 10-6, but just missed January football.

The Davids are still dropping the previous years Goliaths. Who will make the leap this year? Make your picks in the threads.

My ‘08 losers-to-preeners: Carolina, New Orleans, Buffalo and Oakland.

8-8ers making the jump this year: Minnesota and Houston.

The team I may still put into the equation: Philadelphia. I can’t figure them out. I can easily see them getting back into the playoffs, especially if they keep Lito Sheppard. But I can also see their aging offensive line collapsing.  I keep going back and forth on them.

Conventional Wisdom Sees Turmoil at Valley Ranch. Good!

I’m taping a podcast with Pigskinpodcast.com, to be broadcast on Wednesday. One of the questions to be addressed is Wade Phillips‘ status. The host said that from afar Phillips appears to be a “dead man walking” and that the move to Jason Garrett already appears underway.

There is no doubt that Jerry Jones envisions a smooth transition from Phillips to Garrett, whenever that comes. That said, I see contradictory evidence that Phillips’ hand has been weakened.

Weeks ago, I reported a source claimed he and other authoritative observers feel DL coach Todd Grantham will be an upgrade over the departed Kacey Rogers. Last week, the same source told me that after watching the rookie mini-camp, he thinks the Dallas secondary will be much better prepared this year with Dave Campo managing the corners. Campo got very high marks from the source for his teaching skills and for getting his charges to focus on detail.

Brian Stewart aside, Phillips inherited Bill Parcells‘ defensive staff intact. Tony Sparano raided the Cowboys’ D-staff after becoming Miami’s head coach, taking Rogers, Paul Pasqualoni and Todd Bowles with him.

Now, Phillips has three new position coaches who are more attuned to his attacking, one-gap version of the 3-4. Ironically, Phillips lost out on adding Dom Capers to his staff as a consultant, but now has three coaches in Stewart, LB coach Reggie Herring and S coach Brett Maxie who were on Capers’ staff in Houston.

From early reports, it appears Phillips has upgraded two defensive coaching spots. We’re all aware of the improvement TE coach John Garrett brought to the offense last year, getting Jason Witten to complete his game. If Grantham and Campo can bring 5 to 10% improvements to their units, the Cowboys’ defense can expect another improvement in ‘08.

In the broader sense, let’s examine the conventional wisdom about Dallas and how out of tune it appears compared to the information tricking out of Valley Ranch. Recall that one year ago Phillips was just settling into his coaching seat and many commentators were predicting Terrell Owens was going to destroy the locker room, cause it was T.O.’s second year, and he was due to stop behaving himself.

And right on cue, he tore the team apart. Right?!

Now, the tension is allegedly between the head coach and the offensive coordinator. Oh well, you’ve got to find your controversy somewhere.

People Try to Steal Our Stuff, Part Two

You’re reading the Blue and Silver Report so you made the jump from the old site. You’re probably wondering what prompted such a rapid move with so little advance notice, much less some after the fact.

Gather ’round, my friends, to hear a story of copyright gone wrong.

A couple of days after the draft, I received a notice that a person, who in Bill Parcells’ fashion I’ll refer to as “The Individual” sent an e-mail claiming ownership of the site. This was surprising to me since I was never before aware of this person’s existence, never mind this person’s relationship to the site.

“The Individual” claimed that money was owned to them, since they had sold the site to a third party for a loss over what “The Individual” paid to buy the site years ago.

Again, this was news to me, for reasons I’ve just explained. Furthermore, I was annoyed to be told I owed money to anybody. You see, I know something about copyright law. I used to be a communications professor in a past life. I’ve made creative projects of several types. I’ve been paid for some of them and not for others.

In all cases, I’ve taken care to protect my rights. In order for anybody to claim ownership of my writing, they need to obtain a work-for-hire agreement. You can see the details behind such an arrangement here.

No such contract was ever discussed. Consequently, no such contract was ever signed. It’s impossible for “The Individual” to argue such an arrangement was ever proffered since this person did not make their existence known to me until the last week of April.

I therefore own all writings I generated on the old site. Since I don’t appreciate drive-by extortion attempts, I decided to move my work to this site, leaving “The Individual” with the old site and all comments generated there. I last wrote at the old site on May 6th.

Two weeks ago today, I received an e-mail detailing demands from “The Individual.” They wanted not only for my entire story archive to be returned to the old site, but for me to cease all writings at this site, since they might be property of the old site. In addition, I was to work out an arrangement to continue writing for the third party to whom “The Individual” wanted to sell the old site. Absent these terms, I was going to be a defendant in a lawsuit.

To quote the late Bill Hicks, what balls! I was told that if I did not consent to having my past and future work stolen and bartered by “The Individual,” I was going to be sued.

I don’t suffer bullies. I therefore ignored the threat. Yesterday, however, I was surprised to see that “The Individual” or somebody working for them, had copied and pasted all writings generated on this site onto the old one. That’s black-and-white theft. I never agreed to let my new work be posted there. In a delicious irony, one of the stories “The Individual” transferred is “People Try to Steal Our Stuff, Part One,” which details a recent suit by several Texas newspapers against a small website that was copying and pasting stories from them whole and without attribution.

In other words, the old site front paged a story damning the very action it was undertaking. The old site also copied and pasted the legal disclaimer found in the right-hand column on this site — with one significant change. The passage that here reads:

All original work, articles and comment posted by Rafael Vela, Raul Villaronga or invited guest bloggers, however, are protected by applicable copyright laws…

on the other site now reads:

All original work, articles and comment posted invited guest bloggers, however, are protected by applicable copyright laws…

See some key names missing? I’m sorry, but copyright law is made by Congress and upheld by the nation’s courts. It cannot be custom fitted by a site owner to that individual’s whims.

My counsel and I are working on the issue. In the meantime, know these things:

1. I write exclusively for Blue and Silver Report. All new stories and comments are only authorized here. If you want to discuss one of my pieces, you’re in the right place.
2. I have no contract with the other site. I have never had a contract with the other site. I would never agree to one. Therefore,
3. The other site has no claim to my work, past, present or future. Lastly,
4. I may have a work arrangement for the current and future work with another entity. “The Individual” may want to consider that as they continue to illegally copy my latest work onto their site.

I’m sorry for the confusion this has caused you. I am hopeful this will be settled soon. In the meantime, come back and enjoy our continued coverage. Camp Blog ‘08 is a go.

I write for you. I will not be deterred by some overly-litigious dunderhead with a dim understanding of the law.

And now, back to our regularly scheduled off-season.

Update: The pilfered post-May 6th material has been taken down. An e-mail from “The Individual” has been received claiming the posts never existed on the old site.

We’ve got the screen shots to prove they did but hey, they’re down…

New Contract Should Mean More of the Same Old Same Old

Marion Barber’s new deal means the Cowboys can maintain the status quo. I believe Barber will get more playing time, based on his ‘07 breakout and his Pro Bowl invite.

That said, why should the Cowboys make a radical change in the way they use Barber? They’ve just made a huge investment in him. The strongest argument against paying Barber big money is his “blood and guts” running style, as SI Senior writer Paul Zimmerman terms it. Barber does not eschew contact. In fact, he seeks it out.

For this reason, it’s easy to see him going the way of Larry Brown, Earl Campbell, Eddie George and other power backs whose bodies wore down under NFL punishment.

Pardoxically, the best way for Dallas to protect and maximize its investment is to not go overboard and suddenly use him as a “feature back” in the Emmitt Smith style -giving him 80 to 90% of the running backs touches. What Barber can’t suddenly do is get selfish, demanding such a workload. He’s got his money. The focus now should be all about winning.

Dallas also invested a first round pick in a complement for him. Felix Jones looks like he could be an upgrade over his predecessor Jones. One source said he was drafted to be a “matchup headache” for defenses. He’s got value. By giving Jones his share, OC Jason Garrett will ensure that Barber gives his team — and himself — the greatest value for the full length of the deal.

In other words, don’t expect too much to change.

Cowboys to Extend Newman and Barber

The team’s website reports that the Cowboys are close to an extension with CB Terence Newman. Early parameters are 7 years, $51 million. We need to wait and see voidable years, signing bonus, etc. but this appears reasonable given the massive deals given to free agent CBs lately.

Update:  Jerry also flashed the cash for Marion Barber.

Fly First, Run Later

I was talking to a source this week who mentioned a dramatic splits in the Cowboys running attack.  He pointed out that Dallas was 28th in first half rushing and 13th in the second half.

This confirmed a strategy I first noticed in week two against the Dolphins, where Dallas passed at a very high ratio and then tilted towards the run in the second half.  I wrote then that OC Jason Garrett was trying to gas the Dolphins D-line early by forcing them to chase Tony Romo in the heat.

These stats show that Garrett’s game plan was not a one off.  Dallas did this throughout the season.  It makes me wonder if Felix Jones will be used in a manner similar to Julius Jones last year.  He won’t be the starter, but if the Cowboys stick with their pass first, run later strategy (and why would they change it if it worked so well?) that we’ll see Jones a lot in the early phases of the game, to keep Marion Barber fresh and able to rip apart defenses late.

Guarded Optimism for the Top Rookies

I just spoke to a source about the Cowboys’ draftees and got some optimistic reports.

My guy watched the rookies and made sure I understood that all observations are based only on workouts in shorts and shirts. That said, here is what I learned about the latest Cowboys’ crop.

Of top pick Felix Jones, he said this:

He’s a different kind of cat, compared to Julius Jones. He’s simply a better running back. He’s got more explosiveness… I’ve been told by people around the league, not from the Cowboys, that if this kid can show he can block and get on the field early that he’s got a chance to be the offensive rookie of the year…”

He also had good things to say about Martellus Bennett:

“You can see the physical ability. They’re only in shorts but he looked impressive. He’s 6′5.” You can flex him out. He’s got great hands… but [TE coach] John Garrett isn’t going to give this guy any breathing room. He was always on Bennett, telling him, ‘come on, finish! Grip the ball tighter!’ I think he may have been babied in college and it looked to me like Garrett was trying to break a lot of bad habits.”

He urged me — and you, by extension — to keep an eye on 5th rounder draftee Orlando Scandrick this summer, saying:

“He wasn’t covering Terry Glenn or T.O. out there but you can see his athletic ability. He’s got the backpedal, the change of direction… I talked to people around the league before the draft — and again, this wasn’t from the Cowboys — and there were some questions about his intelligence. But there were some people who told me they thought that if he was able to pick things up that he could be a better corner than [Mike] Jenkins in the long run… he went to Boise St. but this kid has Pac 10 talent. He could have easily played at a USC or a UCLA or an Arizona or Arizona St. You could see that on the practice field…”

Your turn.

The 5, 10 and 25% Solutions

Earlier this week, I put up a study of the “Wade Phillips Effect,” a comparison of his teams the year before he arrived and their first years on staff.

What we saw from the ‘07 Cowboys was a vast improvement in consistency. A team that had been winning and losing in alternating weeks the last two years of the Parcells regime suddenly stopped yo-yoing, winning five in a row to start the season and then reeling off seven more wins after a loss to New England.

The lineups on both sides of the ball were nearly identical to those in ‘06. How then did Phillips get his team to play better?

Part of the reason is maturity. In ‘07 we saw several key young defensive players took the next steps in their respective developmental curves. Demarcus Ware added 2.5 sacks to his ‘06 figures, moving from 11.5 to 14. Chris Canty became a rock against the run at RE and showed flashes of pass rushing skill. Bradie James rebounded from a disappointing ‘06, looking slimmer, faster and more confident. His tackle totals were identical to his ‘06 numbers but anybody who watched him know he adapted very well to the new scheme.

What helped the Cowboys was a general improvement by several players of 5 to 10% over the previous year. Add these small improvments together and Dallas was able to tip some frustrating ‘06 losses into the win column. We were spared the anxiety of ‘06 Redskins and Eagles road losses, where Dallas piled up miscue upon miscue.

What also helped were four increases in secondary performance, one obvious and the other three far more subtle, that together were probably worth a couple of wins.

Cast your mind back to December ‘06. The Cowboys were 1-3 that month and the defense looked poor in all four games. The Saints ripped them for 42; the Falcons tagged them for 28; the Eagles bludgeoned them on the ground 23-7 and the Lions threw up 39, with Jon Kitna laughing afterwards at the confusion he saw in Dallas’ back seven.

People on site grouse about the ‘07 secondary but the ‘06 version was the primary culprit in the defense’s collapse. RCB Anthony Henry played with a balky knee that locked up on him. He persisted on guts, smarts and pain killers but he had no top gear. I’m sure people remember his pick of Jeff Garcia in the Eagles’ loss. Henry had a clear path down the sideline for a touchdown but was caught from behind because he didn’t have the burst.

Teams began picking on Henry deep in December and succeeded because Keith Davis and Pat Watkins were combining to play two headed Cyclops at free safety. Neither could track a ball in the air, so they both allowed passes to be completed in front of them, behind them and right next to them. At nickel back, Aaron Glenn’s game was collapsing. His surprising ‘05 performance was apparently the flicker before the flame went out.

Add these problems up and Dallas had only one coverage man who was capable of playing at a better than league average level, that being Terence Newman, and even he had his yips in December. He played poorly in the Lions game just days after calling his defensive mates out in the press.

Last year the secondary took a giant step forward based on better health, trust in youth and one key, low money signing. Henry missed several games midseason but was solid when he was healthy early and late. Teams picked on him early but stopped when he snagged several September interceptions. The healthy ‘07 Henry represented perhaps a 5-10% increase over the gimpy ‘06 edition.

Newman missed early games with a heel injury but played stronger as the season went on. He was strong in both seasons but was more consistent in ‘07. He might give up a play here and there but never had awful games, as he did the year before.

Jacques Reeves, for all the deserved grief he received, upgraded the secondary. Yes, he played soft and conceded a maddening number of 8, 10 and 12 yard passes. But we need to keep his play in context; that so-so play rated Reeves in the middle of the pack and earned him notice from K.C. Joyner as one of the better buys in free agency.

He wasn’t Kenny Gant, circa 1992 but Reeves was still a step up from Glenn, who placed 60th among corners in Joyner’s final ‘06 ratings. Reeves rarely gave up deep balls, something Glenn had started to do with regularity.

The quantum leap, of course, came at free safety, where Ken Hamlin sutured the wound in the deep center of the Cowboys’ coverage. In Joyner’s ‘05 ratings Keith Davis ranked last among coverage safeties. This is probably more a function of Davis playing out of position — he’s a strong safety forced to play the free — but his performance is what it is.

In ‘06 Pat Watkins ranked 34th among the 36 rated coverage safeties. Davis wasn’t even on the list, meaning he was even worse that 36th rated Chris Crocker. Dallas was going on several consecutive years with the worst free safety play in the league. Hamlin couldn’t help but improve, even if he was mediocre.

He was far better than mediocre, earning a Pro Bowl berth. I haven’t seen Joyner’s ‘07 metrics, so I don’t know where Hamlin rated but these numbers don’t lie: the ‘06 Cowboys were 24th in passing yards allowed. In ‘07 they rose to 13th.

In ‘06 Dallas gave up 25 TD passes, ranking 27th; last year they gave up 19, ranking 8th. The interception total took a modest jump from 18 to 21.

If Henry, Newman and Reeves were offering 5 and 10% improvments, Hamlin’s might have been 50%. It’s hard to put a clear number on it, but the results are clear.

Going into ‘08. there appear to be several areas where the Cowboys can make more small improvements off last year’s work. On the line, new coach Todd Grantham’s improved attention to technique could squeeze more from Canty, Jay Ratliff, Jason Hatcher and even Marcus Spears.

At OLB, it’s not unreasonable to expect Anthony Spencer’s game to make a leap. The same is also true for Ware. He worked hard with Greg Ellis during camp to improve his hand usage and rush technique. That said, Joyner’s recent ratings of the game’s top rushers found that Ware made all but one of his 14 ‘07 sacks on speed and bull rush moves. If Ware can ever incorporate Ellis’ techniques, he could be looking at an 18 to 20 sack season.

At WILB, Zach Thomas offers promise that he can improve on Akin Ayodele’s disappointing ‘07. Ayodele dropped from 84 total tackles in ‘06, an average of just over 5 per game, to 57 last year, an average of 3.5 per game. Thomas has never averaged less than 10 total tackles per game the past seven years.

In the secondary, Dallas will try to move up another level or two from Reeves’ standard, hoping that either Pacman Jones, a top-5 corner in Joyner’s ‘06 numbers or top pick Mike Jenkins can provide the improvement.

Remember, the Cowboys don’t need to add Lawrence Taylor Jr. to be better. A few modest upgrades can take them from their 11th ranking last year into the top five.

You’re As Big a Winner as Your Teammates Make You

Compare and contrast:

– Opening drive of the 3rd quarter, 1993 NFC Championship Game. Score tied 10-10. Dallas crosses midfield on a key 3rd down completion from Troy Aikman to Michael Irvin. On first down just outside the 49ers’ 40, Aikman pumps, then throws a deep fade down the right sideline for Alvin Harper, who is covered by Eric Davis.

Aikman underthrows the pass and it appears Davis might intercept, but Harper, who high jumped 7′1″ in college, does his best Reed Richards impersonation, leaping and reaching over Davis and snatching the ball off the ‘Niners’ facemask. The circus catch gives Dallas first-and-goal at the four. Daryl Johnston scores on a short run and Dallas ends a long drive with a touchdown. The Cowboys never trail again and go to the Super Bowl.

– Opening drive, third quarter of a 2007 NFC Divisional Playoff game. Scored tied 14-14. Dallas breaks into New York’s red zone on a mad scramble by Tony Romo. Two plays later, from the Giants’ eleven, Dallas runs Anthony Fasano on an out towards the right goal line pylon. He’s well covered by Gibril Wilson, who hangs off Fasano’s right shoulder and leaves Romo a target about a foot square.

Romo paints an imaginary laser on Fasano’s heart and rifles the ball on the spot. When it bounces off the tight end’s pads, the collective hearts of the Cowboys Nation are broken. The Cowboys leave four points on the field, settling for a field goal after an eight minute drive and search in vain for them the rest of the game.

Two huge games. Two outcomes in the balance. Two Pro Bowl Dallas QBs at the controls.

One of them makes a perfect throw into the smallest of spaces. The other floats a duck towards his target. Yet it’s Aikman, the poorer thrower, who gets rewarded.

I raise the comparison because I’m reading a lot of stereotyping, positive and negative about Aikman and Romo in the threads these days. That Aikman won because he possessed unquantifiable super powers which could will his team towards titles. That Romo has failed because he doesn’t yell enough, or possess the pixie dust which Aikman would sprinkle in the huddle, making his teammates’ hearts grow three extra sizes.

I think we’re seeing causal chains running in reverse here. To my eyes it’s simple. Aikman didn’t pull any hocus pocus. He’s considered invincible because Alvin Harper and quite a few other Cowboys played beyond themselves when the chips were down. They made Aikman’s reputation as much as he did.

Romo suffers slights like “the best QB never to win a playoff game” because Fasano and several other teammates failed to execute the ordinary.

You’re only as good as your teammates help you be.

Can Greg Grump His Way Back to the Pro Bowl?

Greg Ellis has been bad at recognizing what’s good for him the past two years.

He complained vehemently when Bill Parcells pulled a Willie McGinnest and moved the career-long 4-3 end to 3-4 OLB in ‘06. Ellis told any press member who would listen that he had misgivings, then adapted with amazing speed and was Dallas best rusher that year until he tore an Achilles tendon in the ninth game of the season.

Last year he complained about a lack of respect and expressed a desire to be traded. Jerry Jones mollified Ellis by settling the veteran’s insurance policy. Ellis then produced his career year, notching 12.5 sacks in just thirteen games, ten of them starts.

The adrenaline in the Cowboys’ locker room was still flowing after the Giants loss when Ellis lodged his latest complaint, saying rookie Anthony Spencer was going to be great and Ellis didn’t know if he had a future with the team.

Given the direct ratio of whining-to-sacks, what I’ll call the WHEI (Whining by Ellis Index) Greg is probably looking at another trip to Honolulu. The Cowboys developed a rotation with Spencer and Ellis late in the season, one that took full form in the playoff loss to the Giants.

In that game, Dallas used Spencer opposite Demarcus Ware on first and second downs, and inserted Ellis on sure passing downs. In two minute warning situations, or in late game situations where Dallas went to a four man line, Ellis stayed in the game and played end.

I imagine Dallas will use this rotation a lot more this year. Spencer showed strength at the point of attack against New York, beating Kevin Boss on most of his matchups and turning all plays towards him inside. The Giants got a couple of decent runs around the perimeter, but they came against Ware, not the rookie.

This means Ellis might get fewer starts on the stats charts but will be much fresher in passing situations. He’ll likely complain, but will also probably continue with his Jim Jeffcoat impersonation. That long-time Cowboy enjoyed great late- career success as a situational rusher; his vast repertoire of moves was a great change up from the speed of Tony Tolbert, whom Jeffcoat often spelled in ‘92, ‘93 and ‘94.

Ellis has one of the better rush repertoires in today’s game. I discussed him with Espn.com’s K.C. Joyner when he wrote a story comparing top rushers from the ’80s and ’90s to those of today. Joyner said this about Ellis:

It’s funny that you mention Ellis. I was very close to making him one of top five because of his varied use of pass rush techniques. I had no idea he was working to help Ware but Ware couldn’t ask for a better teacher.

Oh sure, Greg will complain about playing time. He’ll complain about not fitting in. Then, he’ll give Spencer and Ware more pointers. And then he’ll probably grump his way to a 15-sack season.

Okay, Greg, you’ve finally won me over. You’re the Lou Holtz of pass rushers, constantly poor mouthing your talents while you excel. I concede. I’ve been your hardest critic the last two years, but I’m calling off my complaints. Forgive me for not understanding your novel ways.

Too bad WHEI won’t work in my life. Somehow I can’t see complaining my way to love and respect from my kids or my girlfriend or my colleagues or my readers… Some guys just have it all figured out I guess. Maybe we could form an Ellis cheering section at the games, or here on the blog?

I’m putting in to be the Chairman of “Greg’s Grumpies!” Anybody want to second my nomination?

Like Deja Vu All Over Again?

Situation A — A ‘91 Cowboys team filled with young talent gets hot and runs off a five game winning steak to end the season, including a thrilling week eleven 24-21 win over the then-undefeated and eventual Super Bowl champion Redskins. The ‘Pokes win a wild card playoff game and face a Lions team in the divisional round which had beaten them 34-10 in week six.

Fans are beyond thrilled, knowing a win would set up a rematch against the Redskins, who never matched up all that well against the Jimmy Johnsons. The thinking is the Lions loss was an early season fluke, and that the Cowboys will be one step closer to a title if they can contain RB Barry Sanders.

Detroit crosses up the run-conscious Cowboys. QB Erik Kramer comes out firing from Detroit’s base 3-WR set and riddles the overmatched Dallas secondary, which has Larry Brown and Ike Holt at the corners and James Washington and Ray Horton at the safety spots. Detroit beats Dallas even worse the second around 38-6.

In the offseason the focus turns to improving the Cowboys’ rush and overhauling the secondary. The offense gets just one new starter from off the roster, that being RG John Gesek. Dallas gets its rusher by fleecing San Francisco for Charles Haley. It then drafts CB Kevin Smith in round one, SS Darren Woodson in round two and trades with Pittsburgh for FS Thomas Everett at the trade deadline.

With Smith providing a blue chip upgrade over Holt at left corner and and Everett pushing the aged Horton to the bench, Dallas pass defense improves from 23rd in ‘91 to 5th in ‘92. Dallas has the athleticism to match up with the San Franciscos and Detroits and rolls to a Super Bowl win over Buffalo.

Situation B — A young and talented Cowboys’ team finds the consistency it lacked under previous HC Bill Parcells and rolls to a 13-3 record. Fans remember a 48-27 shootout loss to the Patriots in week six and look forward to a possible rematch in the Super Bowl. They know the secondary is suspect at the nickel and dime corner slots but wonder if the pass rush and a strong offense can let the Cowboys keep pace.

They never get the chance. In the divisional round the Cowboys offense goes ball control in the middle quarters then fizzles the last 20 minutes. The defense plays gamely but gives up a 52 yard TD pass on the Giants’ opening drive when Amani Toomer breaks three weak tackles and stretches a 10 yard reception the distance.

The back breaker was a seven-play, 71 yard touchdown drive just before halftime which took just 46 seconds. New York picked mercilessly on nickel corner Jacques Reeves.

In the offseason the Cowboys, like their ‘91 counterparts, leave the offense mostly intact, drafting RB Felix Jones to replace Julius Jones and TE Martellus Bennett to take over for Anthony Fasano. Ten of the eleven starting spots on offense look to be unchanged when camp begins.

On defense, the task is to upgrade the secondary. Reeves and dime corner Nate Jones are let go in free agency. Pacman Jones is acquired from Tennessee, pending re-instatement by the Commissioner. Dallas drafts Mike Jenkins in the 1st and trades up for speedy Orlando Scandrick in the 5th.

Historians will tell you that historical situations cannot be compared; just because a glorious result occured in Situation A is no reason to expect it to repeat in Situation B. There are too many variables in play that can prevent lightning from striking twice. Consider injuries; the ‘92 Cowboys enjoyed great health. Will this year’s team see the same?

That said, the parallels between 1992 and 2008 are eerie. Dallas is clearly giving itself a chance to repeat history.

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