NFC Crystal Ball
Posted: June 22, 2008 @ 10:58 pm
The preseason magazines have started to appear. We used to rate them here, but gave up because they have this nasty habit of taking last year’s playoff field, adding maybe one “surprise team,” though they often have none.
As we’ve pointed out time and again here, there are on average four teams that go from losing records to the playoffs each year. Most of them have been in the NFC this decade.
Let’s ignore the magazines this time around and make our own picks.
I’ve nominated the Vikings as my new standout team. But let’s take it farther.
1. Pick the six playoff teams.
2. Who will be new to the playoff dance?
3. Any bounce-back teams?
4. Who are ’08’s big droppers?
I’ll take first crack.
1. The playoff six:
- Cowboys
- Vikings
- Saints
- Cardinals
- Giants
- Panthers
2. I have four new playoff teams — the Vikings, Cards, Saints and Panthers. There has been roughly 50% turnover from year to year league wide and I’m seeing more churn in the NFC, which has been the more volatile conference.
My final slot came down to the Eagles and Panthers. I’m giving Carolina the nod today, though I’d like to see Jake Delhomme’s health before I lock this one in.
3. My two NFC loser-to-playoff teams are the Saints and Panthers, with the Vikings and Cardinals moving from 8-8 to the post-season. I also see San Francisco yo-yoing back into contention but just missing the playoffs.
4. Big droppers?
a. The Redskins are trying too much change. They’ve lost their head coach and their DC, which means they’re putting in new offensive and defensive systems. They’re also relying a lot on their first-day receiver and tight end draftees;
b. The Packers should be good but what do we really know about Aaron Rogers. Their division will get tougher, with the Vikings and Bears improving. I don’t see them falling to 6-10 but 9-7 could happen;
c. The Seahawks have lived off their division’s weakness; they’re the only Western team to finish above .500 since 2003. They won 9 games in ‘06 and 10 in ‘07. I see them dropping out of the divisional penthouse with the Cards and 49ers improving. I’ve been burned before picking the Cards but they’ve been building their talent base and can win that division at 10-6 or 9-7.
d. The Bucs jumped back into the race last year by riding their defense. That offense doesn’t scare me. They’ve have 83 quarterbacks, which means they don’t have one. How much longer can Joey Galloway carry that offense?
Your turn.
Comments
-
"The Sports Doctors"
iTunes/
Winamp
Windows
Media
RealOne -
Cowboy Up
Dedicated to providing the best Cowboys analysis anywhere, our efforts are free of charge but not free of expense. Your kind donation today will keep our drive alive.
Thank you
Or mail payment to:
RV2 Enterprises
P.O. Box 150093
Austin TX 78715-0093
Advertisers
-
Fave it!
-
SiteMeter
Burst Media
first!!
1.Cowboys
2.Vikings
3.Saints
4.49ers
5.gnats
6.Seahawks
First, how hard would it be to link last year’s “Prediction Thread”?
It would be funny/interesting to see how we did.
All I remember was that I was one of those high on the 49ers.
I sure didn’t see GB being any good.
Division Winners:
Dallas
Minn.
New Orleans (Would you believe, a 7-9 division champ?)
Seattle (49ers died when Norv left, I will never pick the Cards!)
Wild Cards:
Giants
Eagles
I cannot picture any team from the West or South taking a WC.
The problem with my WC’s is having 3 teams from the same division-they have to beat up on each other and that brings their records down.
But GB has to go through Detroit and Minn., and Chicago gives them trouble, so I went with the Eagles.
Raf, you picked the Saints too?!?
I thought that was my ‘out-there’ pick.
Their offense was still good, and if their D can just be OK they can take that division.
What a sorry-ass division.
Dallas
Green Bay
New Orleans
Arizona
NewYork
Minesota
Dallas
Green Bay
NO
Seattle
New York
Minnesota
Cowboys
Packers
Bucs
Seahawks
Saints
Winner of Dec 21st Panther/Giants game
Cowboys 12-4
Giants 11-5
Vikings 10-6
Packers 9-7
Seahawks 9-7
Bucs 9-7
Cowboys
Vikings
Saints
Rams
Giants
Panthers
My story and I’m sticking to it. Rams surprise all with a healthy offense and an improved defense. Giants start slow, finish strong again, but the Eli/Tyree magic is not there.
1.Cowboys
2.Packers
3.Panthers
4.Cardinals
5.Giants
6.Saints
I agree with RHA that the Rams should make it to the playoffs this year, and that the Saints should eliminate the Bucs from contending in the NFC South.
And now, another issue: does anyone else think that Romo is not fully capitalizing on his ability to scamble and run downfield? I guess he is picking his spots carefully and lessening the chance he’ll be hit hard enough to get hurt, but I just feel like he could easily rush for 20-30 yards/2-3 first downs a game, be even more Staubach-esque. The dude has moves and enough speed to be considered a threat in that regard, I believe.
Is this nitpicking? Probably. But it’s the slow time of year, so…
I wouldn’t be so quick to write off the Seahawks. Sure they coast every year due to the weakness of the NFC West, but they also beat the Skins in the playoffs and came freakin’ close to . I know that a lot of you are laughing at the fact that they’re counting on Julius at RB, but he’s not going to be a drop-off from what they had last year. The Hawks win now with defense and some timely (and streaky) Hasselbeck plays. They’ve still got the four best defensive players in their division–Peterson, Kerney, Tatupa, and Trufant. Qwest Field is one tough place to play. And come on, what logic is there for seeing marked improvement in any other NFC West team, beyond the “they can’t be this bad forever” line of thinking. Once again, the Seahawks clean up in the division and at home, finish 10-6 or 11-5, and win a home playoff game.
Playoff teams:
Dallas
Green Bay
New Orleans
Seattle
Minnesota
Philly
Biggest Surprise: The Giants miss the playoffs, finishing 7-9. Call me a believer in a slight twist on the “Super Bowl Loser Hangover” trend–this year it’s the “Team That Got Lucky and Won the Super Bowl Hangover.” Sure the Giants got hot and did what no other team could have done. But they were a one-trick pony with their pass rush, and the Hall of Famer that made it go is retiring (although I’m with Bigg Leonard in not believing it until the regular season starts). The turmoil there is overblown by the media, but they’re going to miss Strahan more than most realize. The reality of playing in football’s toughest division is going to bring them back down to earth, and they’ll lose out on the wildcard spot to the Eagles.
In the Giants game against the Packers, the Packers just seemed to be getting pushed around. The Giants shouldn’t have needed to go into overtime. At least we put up a fight against them. I think the Packers miss the playoffs.
Wow, not a lot of difference in the picks.
A lot of people like NO, and the main difference seems to be between Phillie/GB/ and Carolina.
Great White, I’d agree the Giants could take a big fall. There are a lot of unhappy people there now, and they lost a couple of players.
I just can’t get it out of my head that what GB did was smoke and mirrors last year.
And the rest of the NFC is so weak, it’s hard to say who’ll surprise. No one saw the Bears or NO coming 2 years ago, and no one saw GB and the Giants doing so well last year.
greatwhitenorth,
Uh, no.
a. I’d take Patrick Willis over any of those four guys you named.
b. Seattle won one game last year against a team with a winning record.
c. Yes, they beat Todd Collins in a wild card game and then were run off the field by Green Bay. If Ryan Grant doesn’t hand them 14 points in the first five minutes of the game the final score is 42-6.
d. The 49ers swept them in ‘06 when Norv Turner was there. The 49ers collapsed when he went to S.D. and Alex Smith got hurt, not to mention Frank Gore. Mike Martz will get that offense to bounce back. The Cards are FINALLY beefing up their O and D lines. I never said “they can’t be this bad forever” so please refrain from putting words in my mouth.
The Seahawks had a nasty running game in ‘05 when they went to the Super Bowl. But Shawn Alexander got old, Steve Hutchinson is a Viking now and I saw Walter Jones getting beat last year.
That line and that offense is in slow decline. They look like the ‘98 Cowboys to me.
Damn good points Raf. I’m editing mine.
1.Cowboys
2.Vikings
3.Saints
4.49ers
5.gnats
6.Panthers
I’ve got to agree with greatwhitenorth here. I think the Gianrts miss the playoffs and a winning record as well. Eli will suck in the regular season as usual. The Eagles will be our competition in the East. My predictions are similar to greatwhite as well, only I see the Vikings taking the division and the surprising Bears getting the final WildCard.
East - Cowboys
North - Packers
South - Panthers
West - Cardinals
WC - Saints
WC - Vikings
Raf,
a. Willis - I didn’t see him play last year, so maybe I’m underestimating him. But I’d still take Seattle’s D over any in the West.
b. In any other division, the Hawks would be in trouble, but they could win zero games over winning teams and still finish 8-8, and that might be enough to win the division.
c. Collins wasn’t the worst QB in the playoffs, and how many of us wanted Seattle to win that game so Dallas would face NY instead of the Skins? Seattle got their butts handed to them in GB, but the snow there had a lot to do with that–not that they would have beaten GB in any case.
d. You’re counting on Martz to save the 49ers offense, when the only stars he has are a smash-mouth runner and a speedy TE (hardly his usual weapons of choice)? I think he’ll have a hard time bringing that offense to the level of the Lions of the past few years, much less remind anyone of the “greatest show on turf” days. I’m still carrying a grudge against Holmgren from his Packers teams, but I’ll take him and Hasselbeck over Martz and Alex Smith.
On the Cards, didn’t mean to lump you in with the rest of the sportswriters who take the “their day has to come eventually” approach. But all you said was that they’re building up their talent base, and later that their lines are improving. I haven’t studied their offseason moves, and I trust that Wisenhunt and Grimm will do their homework on the lines, but what I remember about their offseason was them being held hostage by Fitzgerald’s deal and losing their best defender (Pace) to the Jets. Who/where are these line improvements you’re seeing?
Bottom line is that Seattle has fewer question marks than everyone else in the division, and their biggest offseason loss was their kicker.
East - Cowboys
North - Lions
South - Panthers
West - Cardinals
WC - Saints
WC - Vikings
Lions will get 10 wins! At least somebody has to win that division. Looks like NFCE only gets one team.
did you guys hear this crap about imus saying on his radio show that adam jones was basically in all this trouble because he is black and thats to be expected? wtf is up with that giant douche?
I think you all have lost your mind. Please remember it all starts with the qb. So …out of all the teams we are looking at who has the most questionable qb situatuation? I would say the Vikings, Cardinals, and Green Bay all have suspect qb situations. Not to say that rest of the team is not good. I tend to play it safer. If Jackson from MN or Rogers for GB steps up, then lookout!!! But until they prove themselves i’ll stick with the proven. BTW…Eagles are too old.
1. East - Cowboys
2. North - Vikings
3. South - Panthers
4. West - Seahawks
5. wc - Giants
6. wc - Saints
East - Dallas
North - Minny, though I don’t trust Tavaris yet
South - New Orleans (should be improved defensively)
West - Someone has to get to 8-8 right? Seattle because of their D and QB.
WC - Green Bay (Rogers can play. Like Romo in Year 1)
WC - Giants (Fewer questions than anyone else)
I wanted to put Philly in there. Strong D. If they can stay healthy at QB and OT, they will be tough. I don’t think they can stay healthy.
Tampa Bay? Too many question marks across the board.
Carolina? Possible. Their D is getting old. But if Peppers returns to form, they are playoff caliber.
Out West, anyone could emerge. They are just the land of mediocrity. San Fran? Give em a couple of years to learn Martz’ system and to get the right kind of WRs. Arizona? I have hope, but I’ll believe it when I see it. St. Louis? Might actually surprise if the OLine can stay healthy. I went with Seattle by default.
Only 2 carry-overs:
E - Cowboys
N – GB
S – Saints (bounce-back)
W - 49′ers (new)
WC – Panthers (new)
WC – Iggles (new)
The NFC N is playing the AFC S - that is 4 games against the toughest division in football, so no WC teams for them – Rogers edges Jackson but GB don’t go far in the playoffs.
NFC W is awful, so it is a “winner by default” pick. ‘Hawks are on the slide and have a lame-duck HC. Can’t bring myself to pick the Cards and the Rams are too far away. 49′ers issue was an anemic ‘O. I think Martz will do enough to get them the division with 10 wins.
NFC S plays the relatively weak AFC W (other than SD) – resurgent Panthers and Saints bounce to battle it out with Payton outfoxing Fox.
Eagles finished strong. I think that will carry-over and they will stay healthy enough to clinch the WC over the NYG’s.
Fallling: Bucs, Skins and Lions – with Millen finally getting fired.
On second thoughts - I retract that comment about Millen - that is too outlandish an idea…
I really don’t understand the lovefest for Minny or the ‘Aints.
Minnesota has no QB, no WRs, and a pretty weak secondary (OK, really weak @32nd).
N.O. has no D, period. Maybe the worst secondary in football. Further, they lost their best RB and the chances of him being back 100% are slim.
One last on the Giants. Every other year they won, they failed to make the playoffs. They lost 5 starters on D and really didn’t get much in FA and only Phillips in the draft.
As for the Cards, they have to show me, ’cause no matter the talent on paper, that franchise simply can’t win.
I think y’all are really underestimating Tampa’s D and Jeff Garcia. They have receivers, RBs, and finally have some semblance of an O-line.
Thus the chalk picks.
COWBOYS
VIKINGS
SAINTS
SEAHAWKS
PACKERS
GIANTS
eagles…cards…panths just miss..eagles give way to gnats with a week 17 loss to the BOYS..who are playing tuff to keep the # 1 seed away from the VIKINGS.
What do we know about Aaron Rodgers? Well, he is from a highly respected D-1A program at Cal, coached by one of the best in Jeff Tedford. He has all of the tangibles the NFL looks for in a quarterback. He has been developed in the manner Romo was developed, which is the preferable method, rather than being thrown onto the field as a rookie when you’re not remotely close to being ready. He is surrounded by a decent squad. Watch out for Green Bay. When the playoffs roll around, you’ll be wondering how you didn’t see them in your predictions when it should have been so obvious.
I agree with the Cardinals pick. Matt Leinart in his third season should be starting to show a little of what he’s made of, and he has some great receivers. Next year he’ll come into his own.
I don’t know about New Orleans. Drew Brees is good but not a quarterback that can carry a team.
Finally, I think Washington may be better than you think, primarily due to Jason Campbell. The last two years have been development ones for him. He was able to sit for a few games last year like Leinart, due to injury, which will benefit his development. I don’t think they will make the playoffs due to the strength of the NFC East, but they might be greatly improved.