Adam Jones, CB Rankings and Ken Hamlin’s Best Position: K.C. Joyner Returns, Part I
June 29, 2008
The football scientist K.C. Joyner gave BSR an interview Friday, taking time from finishing Scientific Football 2008 to discuss Adam Jones, the Cowboys incumbent corners, whether Ken Hamlin should be moved to strong safety and other topics. Today, we focus on the defense.
BSR: Adam Jones has finally landed in the Cowboys’ secondary. There’s a lot of discussion on the site about his ability to recover from a year off. I don’t think it’s an issue. He was suspended for being a knucklead. He didn’t miss time for a major injury or behavior that damaged his body, like drug or alcohol abuse. Paul Hornung and Alex Karras missed a full year in ‘63 for gambling. Both played well after they returned and they were both 28 the year they sat. Jones was 24. I think his performance curve can actually improve.
Joyner: I agree. Physiologists and baseball analysts like Bill James say that your physical peak comes around age 27 or 28. Don’t forget that John Riggins also sat out a year and helped win a Super Bowl after he returned.
BSR: I saw a comment from an AFC pro personnel guy who said Jones has talent but was inconsistent while at Tennessee. How much can we expect him to add to the secondary this year?
Joyner: Remember, he’s replacing Jacques Reeves. Reeves had a 7.9 yards per attempt in ‘07. Now, a 7.0 YPA is about league average. Adam Jones had a 5.4 YPA in 2006 (which ranked 8th overall). Jones doesn’t have to equal that to be an improvement. Even if he’s a notch below his ‘06 play he’ll raise the secondary’s play.
As for being inconsistent, you don’t post a 5.4 YPA giving up a lot of big plays. He may have given up a decent throw here and there, but you can’t give up many and post a number like that.
BSR: How did the Cowboys’ regular corners rate?
Joyner: Anthony Henry had a 6.6 YPA. That’s in the top third. Terence Newman had a 6.2 YPA. That’s in the top 20. The Cowboys had a top ten secondary with Reeves starting 13 games. They should be as good or better with Jones.
[Note: Joyner didn't have his rankings handy, but he's on the mark. A 6.2 YPA ranked 15th in both the '05 and '06 CB ratings. A 6.6 YPA ranked 21st and 20th in those years. ]
BSR: There’s been a lot of speculation that the Cowboys will move to Anthony Henry to free safety and Ken Hamlin to strong safety, putting Roy Williams on the bench. Henry hinted at this when Jones got some reps at starting right corner in last week’s mini-camp. But Hamlin was very good at free safety last year. Would Dallas be messing with success to move him?
Joyner: Before Ken Hamlin the Cowboys were awful at free safety. [Note: Keith Davis and Pat Watkins had the worst pass coverage numbers for starting FSs in '05 and '06.]
I think Dallas might be creating one problem by trying to solve another one. I don’t have his stats but Hamlin was very, very good last year. If the Cowboys want to replace Roy Williams at strong safety, they should get another strong safety. Look, I don’t have any problems saying this on the record. I think Roy Williams is just one of those guys, like Randy Moss, who’s going to play his game, the game that he wants to play, no matter what.
BSR: Let’s look at the Dallas secondary in comparison to another top divisional unit. I’ve written a couple of pieces on the NFC and I have the Eagles as my bubble team; I’m putting them outside the playoffs but can see them in if they keep Lito Sheppard. How good can Philly’s secondary be if they keep him?
Joyner: Lito dropped off. He takes chances and has high YPAs but the Eagles put up with it because he made plays and got picks. He’s stopped doing that.
BSR: What did Asante Samuel post last year?
Joyner: He was 7.2. Good, but not great.
I think the Eagles suffered letting nickel back Rod Hood go. He posted a 6.6 YPA for Arizona, which is very respectable. They replaced him with William James, who had a YPA over 11.0 last year, which is one of the worst marks in the league.
– Come back Monday for Part II, where K.C. will discuss Tony Romo’s ‘07, the difficult matchups he faces in ‘08, Patrick Crayton’s value as a number two and whether rumored WR target Joe Horn has anything left.
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12 Responses to “Adam Jones, CB Rankings and Ken Hamlin’s Best Position: K.C. Joyner Returns, Part I”
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KC and Raf,
Thanks for the interview and great info on the Cowboys secondary. Looking forward to see how the improved secondary impact the pass rush numbers.
Maybe it’s just me, or maybe it’s the truth.
But K.C. has been a Cowboys’ “Homer” for awhile.
I love the numbers, and the undisputable talent that we have in the secondary rivals the best we’ve had all time.
Consider the company:
Charley Waters, Cliff Harris, Mel Renfro in the 70’s
Woodson, Deion, Kevin Smith in the 90’s
Terrance Newman, Anthony Henry, Roy Williams, and Pacman (not to mention Hamlin, the best FS we’ve had in a decade) might just be the best we’ve ever had. And the depth got stupid in a hurry. I mean 2 of the most highly rated corners and two “surprises” are fighting out for the 4th corner.
Seriously, we’ve got a first rounder that all pre-season rankings rated as the best corner (Jenkins). We’ve got a 4th rounder that might be better than any of the other first or second rounders in Scandrick. Alan Ball has been a beast, last year and this. And none other than Deion pronouced that Evan Oglesby might be the best of ‘em all.
Great dynasties can alway deliver because they can always shut down the opponents.
We’ve waited for Doomsday again. Guess what? We got Luv Ya Blue meets Big Blue. I’m really excited.
I think we may have the best defense ever in Cowboys history. Ever!
Wow, Fighter, you have topped yourself in your optimism!
I hope there was some tongue-in-cheek planting included.
I’m with you, a bit, until you start praising Alan Ball, Scandrick, and Evan Oglesby!
You are comparing this defense to the great Doomsdays of the past based on those guys? They are nobodies who’ve done nothing and shouldn’t even be mentioned in the same breath as Cliff Harris and Charlie Waters, etc.
We can assume Jenkins will be a good player and contribute this year, based on talent and evaluation, but ‘Alan Ball has been a beast’?
It’s good to be optimistic, but it’s silly to say this might be the best defense ever. Let’s see how Roy plays, how Ellis, ZThomas, and Henry hold up, and how the youngsters do-if they are even good enough to make it on the field……
Joe Horn? That’s the first I’ve heard about that one.
Before we all give it up saying this defense is the best ever I have to say let’s not give the trophy up yet. They are good and have talent but the fact is the last 5 games of the season teams could run the ball down their throat. My opinion is that without Fergi our nose DT’s wore down and teams capitolized on that. We still don’t have a true 3/4 Nose and I think without that we still have a ways to go. You have to be able to stop the run, especially come playoff time.
I was a bit brief and assumed that most could make the jump with me.
Let me explain.
Our D-Line rotation is as good as the 90’s version, but still lesser than the Manster, Too Tall, Lilly & Co. But given the change in scheme, I’ll take Canty, Tank, & Spears with Hatcher & Ratliff coming in.
The linebackers are better as a unit than we’ve ever had. There’s no legit argument (though I’d love to hear the inane rant).
My point was that this secondary, as a unit (4 or 5 deep) is as good as we’ve ever had.
And that is the crux of the argument. The great D’s in Cowboys’ history had great secondaries. What we’ve assembled is going to be (IMHO) the best we’ve ever had.
I never said Jenkins or Ball was the equal of the front liners. Geez. We’ve got Newman, the (arguably) second best CB behind Sanders. Henry is as good, or better than any other second CB. Pacman adds a dimension we’ve never had, ever. Hell, 3/4 of the starters made the Pro Bowl last year.
Jenkins, Ball & Co. are competing for the dime package and may not make it on the field. If they do, watch out! That means they’re better than a Pro Bowler. OK…I’m in.
And I’m on record thinking that this D will surpass the great Doomsday group.
I’m with you on us having a great pass D especially with the rotation up front but we have to get opponents into passing situations. Is any one that confident in our run D?
Tank was JAG as he transitioned to his new position and we hope he will take the next step on the field. I am very impressed the steps he has taking in the training room, locker room and he seems to be living real clean off Valley Ranch as well. I hope he can bring leadership and hopefully be a little mean and edgy like Charles Haley. I know we’ve had the leadership debates, mainly regarding Aikman, but when you have a defender in the front that is having fun wrecking the O it does feed the others’ enthusiasm and give them opportunities to make plays. Thats the guy we need to find against the run in order for me to really have a great D. I haven’t forgotten Ware but we need to find another stud in the interior line or LB so we aren’t giving up 4 yards up the gut every play. Does Zach have enough left? James has been a very solid player but doesn’t hit that level. My biggest fear is that we have a “doughnut D’ with a big hole in the middle which will be the logical place for teams to attack.
Fighter, just for giggles I’ll put forth the proposition that the Cowboys late 60s-early 70s linebacker unit of of Lee Roy Jordan, Chuck Howley and Dave Edwards, with backup DD Lewis was the club’s best ever. That’s two Ring of Honor members (who have decent arguments that they belong in the NFL HOF) and two others who played and started for a combined 20 seasons. Not too shabby.
That said, nobody is getting more tingly than myself over the prospect of a Ware - James - Zach Thomas - Spencer starting LB lineup with a little Ellis, Burnett and Carpenter thrown in there as well, and maybe some Greg Walden.
The 2008 version has a little unfair edge because probably 2-3 of its members could play end in a 4-3, but I don’t think Geroge Andrie or Harvey Martin could have ever done that. Howley, Jordan, Edwards and Lewis were pure LB’s fwiw. But, I am willing to state for the record that this will be the best 3-4 linebacking unit the team ever put on the field.
We have the makings of a very good D. I think our safeties are a real weak link except for Hamlin.
I’ll wait for proof on the field, including dominating when it counts, in the playoffs, against the best teams before I compare them to champions of the past.
I don’t think any Dallas defense will ever surpass Doomsday I or Doomsday II. Different times call for differing measuring sticks. The 1992-96 defenses were pretty solid (#1 in yards allowed in ‘92 and ‘94, #3 in ‘96), but as good as those defenses were, they really weren’t that disruptive. They stop you again and again, but when it came to big plays (sacks, ints and fumbles forced/recov) they were sorely lacking, unlike the Cowboy defenses of Landry, even well into the 80s. Even the 2003 defense that was supposedly so great hardly got any turnovers. That’s why I like Wade’s defense, last year they did a very good job of getting sacks and ints. Bodes well for this season…
torchin, Sean:
Even when the team had Ratliff and nothing else at NT for most of the season (you may say that for the whole season as Tank played more DT in 4 man fronts than 3-4 NT), and still, the team finished with real decent numbers. In stats you can see that they finished with a top 10 Defense in yards allowed but you can also see that the Defense face one of the fewest numbers of attempts, the most usable stat is average per carry and they allowed 4.0, which is decent.
Having a more immersed Tank Johnson for the whole season can only help. Having a healthy Zach Thomas can only help.
Repeat after me, Ratliff wasn’t a problem last season.
Alright Chandus, You are right about Ratliff not being a problem. I just fear the heavy dose of large running backs (Jacobs)up the gut. Is Zack healthy?? How may times is he going to be able to take having his bell rung now? I’m not overly concerned, just don’t have anything else to worry about…
I’m all for Adam losing the PacMan monicker, but feel he needs some nickname. I’m also sure that the great minds that came up with Roy “THE THONG” Willams can come up with something.
Maybe Raf’s camp coverage will offer some inspiration