Which Teams Have the Best Corner Units?
Posted: July 16, 2008 @ 12:59 am
In part four of the series assessing cornerbacks using K.C. Joyner’s YPA stats from 2004 through 2007, I move from individual assessments to unit ratings. Joyner has a new set of ratings in Scientific Football 2008. I’m not going to rely on these numbers, though I will relay that Dallas finished ‘07 in the top ten.
I’ve chosen to overlook his ‘07 ratings for two reasons. First, they’re exclusive to 2007. Joyner rates the corner units as they performed in ‘07. That’s fine, but with Adam Jones joining the Cowboys’ roster, fans are interested in predictive stats.
For that reason I’m using any and all of Joyner’s numbers from the past four years. I figure more is better. As you’ve seen, a player’s YPA’s can fluctuate wildly from year to year. If we want an idea of how a corner is likely to perform in ‘08, I think it’s best to use all the data that’s available. In Terence Newman’s and Anthony Henry’s cases, I’m using their four-year averages, since those numbers are available. In Jones’ case, Joyner has two years of numbers on him, so I’ll go with their average and will do the same with every other CB.
I’m also rating the units three deep, since nickel backs are vital in this era of spread sets. This will lead to some omissions that cannot be helped. For example, Buffalo will be playing a rookie, Leodis McKelvin at one corner spot this year, so I can’t put a number on his performance.
Lastly, I’m simply averaging the three player’s YPAs here, which does not give proper weight to each player’s contribution, so consider these “soft” averages. Therefore, I’m going to place the units in tiers, rather than in a column. By coincidence, there are only five units that have an average YPA below 7.0, so they form my pantheon. Here they are in alphabetical order, with each player’s average YPA in parentheses:
1. Chicago — Nathan Vasher (5.7), Charles Tillman (6.6), Trumaine McBride (7.1)
Vasher is the best corner we have not discussed yet, because I have not rated players with only two seasons of YPAs. Vasher was top notch in ‘05 and ‘06 but missed 12 games last year because of injury. McBride filled in and posted a very respectable 7.1 YPA.
2. Dallas — Terence Newman (6.2), Adam Jones (6.3), Anthony Henry (7.4)
Jones has an average near Newman’s and has a career peak topping Newman’s, posting an outstanding 5.4 YPA in ‘06. (Newman’s career best is 5.7.) If Jones can approach this number again, he’ll be a starter.
3. Green Bay — Charles Woodson (6.5), Al Harris (7.5), Jarrett Bush (6.6)
Harris gets a lot of love from the press, but his YPA is lower than Anthony Henry’s. Like Henry, he’ll break up passes but give up some huge gains. Bush was very good in his first year at nickelback.
4. Pittsburgh — Deshea Townsend (6.3), Ike Taylor (7.4), Bryant McFadden (6.0)
It’s feast or famine with this bunch. Taylor has been consistently average at one corner and therefore draws most of the action. Townsend and McFadden have alternated so-so seasons with off-the-charts good ones. Both had YPAs below 5.5 last year. If the pattern holds, they’ll be off this season.
5. Washington — Shawn Springs (5.5), Fred Smoot (6.8), Carlos Rogers (7.1)
Springs outstanding play the past four years raises this bunch, but Smoot and Rogers have been steady and good, if unspectacular.
Comments
11 Responses to “Which Teams Have the Best Corner Units?”
Got something to say?
You must be logged in to post a comment.
-
"The Sports Doctors"
iTunes/
Winamp
Windows
Media
RealOne -
Cowboy Up
Dedicated to providing the best Cowboys analysis anywhere, our efforts are free of charge but not free of expense. Your kind donation today will keep our drive alive.
Thank you
Or mail payment to:
RV2 Enterprises
P.O. Box 150093
Austin TX 78715-0093
Advertisers
-
Fave it!
-
SiteMeter
Burst Media
I believe with the additions this year, we’ve got the best unit in the league.
However, not having Denver with Bailey, Dre Bly, and whomever (especially having drafted my favorite guy Antoine Cason) certainly shows the limitation of a flawed statistic.
As a comparison, I simply looked at the final rankings of the entire defensive rankings of teams as a unit (the only recognized stat by the NFL). The best defenses vs. the pass last year were:
1. Tampa
2. Indy
3. Pitts
4. Miami
5. KC
Now obviously, the total yards is misleading because a 1-13 Miami unit basically was never thrown on because teams didn’t have to. And the 32nd ranked Vikings certainly weren’t the worst unit, but teams couldn’t run, therefore…
Now, using the YPA as a unit, the rankings are thus:
1. Pitts
2. Indy
3. Tampa
4. Wash
5. Tenn
6. Dallas
Much more in line with subjective opinion…but the consensus leaders (Denver) are still missing in action. So are last years #1 ranked unit (via Scout’s inc) Baltimore.
So the question is, are the pundits wrong? Are those units overrated? Does it really matter?
Again, my opinion is that NO stat is indicative of individual talent as the pass defense is dependent on:
- Scheme
- Pass Rush
- Entire DB unit
Dallas had 3/4 of it’s unit in the Pro Bowl, yet the team finished around 10th in all team statistical rankings and only T-New makes the top 10 in individual statistical ratings.
Something simply doesn’t match up!
My rankings (purely subjective) are as follows:
1. Dallas - 5 Pro Bowl caliber DBs…no one even close
2. Indy - The Tampa 2 can shut down most teams
3. Pitts - Mainly based on pass rush and Safety play, but their CBs are good
4. S.D. - Very weak at safety, but they get more turnovers than anyone.
5. Denver - If they had a better pass rush, they’d be higher
6. Green Bay - Great corners, average safeties, good front 7 pressure.
Honorable mentions include Tampa, Washington, Baltimore, and Philthy. NE should be there but I believe the exodus and age finally catch up to them.
Sorry, for what its worth even though we’ve moved on to a new thread, i meant to say on my post on the last thread that “hamlin was paid a large chunk of money”…not that it was eating up cap space…my bad, i’m not sure where i was goin there, my bad
I’m still agree with Fighter on this one. Those secondary stats are tied to scheme, pass rush and game situations.
For example three top QBs, Tony Romo, Brett Favre and Tom Brady each with a fantastic statistical year, ended their 07 seasons with interceptions. Can the Giants secondary (not mentioned in this article) be that strong?
Fighter15,
You answer your own question many times over. You say:
“Dallas had 3/4 of it’s unit in the Pro Bowl, yet the team finished around 10th in all team statistical rankings and only T-New makes the top 10 in individual statistical ratings.
Something simply doesn’t match up!”
Yes, many things don’t match up.
1. Roy Williams Pro Bowl berth was based wholly on reputation, not performance;
2. The series looks at *cornerback* play. The title is “who has the best CORNER units,” not who has the best secondaries. Newman is the only corner in the top ten corner ratings because Ken Hamlin and Roy Williams are safeties… Are you contending that Anthony Henry is a top ten corner?
3. Denver was on the edge of the list, but they had a nickel corner (Foxworth) who is mediocre and a second year guy (Paymah) who was outstanding last year, but only has 32 attempts on his list. I left them off because I think that’s too small a sample size to skew them.
4. You go from “consensus” and say that because the stats don’t confirm the consensus they’re flawed.
I’ll conceded that YPA needs a lot of development but who’s to say the consensus isn’t wrong? That’s the whole point of developing systems like YPA, to challenge conventional wisdom.
As for Scouts Inc., whatever. You notice they’re all “former scouts.” I wonder why…
The numbers suggest to me that Dallas does in fact have the best set of corners in the league. Now, will that translate into great secondary play? Depends on how the safeties play. But, well, duh.
– And San Diego drafted Cason
What I like about this is:
1. It confirms that Adam Jones ought to be the starter over Anthony Henry. Henry will get plenty of reps, but maybe with a bit less work he can stay healthy for the season.
2. Dallas has a great secondary on paper. Now the pressure is on them, and on Wade & Co., to turn this into the best defense in the NFL. That ought to be the goal on the defensive side. Fewest points, fewest yards. A championship.
From previous thread
Realist Larry,
What are you talking about. Free agency works just fine in the NFL and has done the Cowboys very very well.
“Also, there has been a real watershed in the last few years. The time of big free agent signings and filling holes with a lot of proven talent is over.
The GM’s finally wised up, and we are back to the importance of the draft, and then signing and keeping your own players….FA just didn’t work for the NFL,,,,We may be seeing a return to haves/have nots based on a team’s ability to evaluate talent”
Huh…Nearly half the starters on the roster are free agents.
Bill Parcell’s taught us that the 3rd corner and wide receiver are really starters. Likewise the team has four starting D-lineman and 4 starting linebacker spots. Add the kicker and punter and you got 27 starting positions. Of the 27 starters on the Cowboy roster 14 were drafted and 13 were signed as free agents.
Drafted Starters
3 of 4 starting Defensive lineman
3 of 4 starting Linebackers
1 of 3 starting corners
1 of 2 starting safeties
0 of 3 starting wide receivers
1 of 1 starting TE
2 of 5 starting o-lineman
1 of 2 starting specialist
Free Agent Starters
1 of 4 starting linebackers
1 of 4 starting d-lineman
1 of 2 starting safeties
2 of 3 starting corners
1 of 1 starting QB.
3 of 3 starting wide receiver
3 of 5 starting offensive lineman
1 of 2 specialist
Jones has done a great job of building the roster because he uses every tool in the deck and does not stick to any restrictive philosophy. Drafting well was key, but even more was his willingness to spend as much as the rules will let him spend and a Parcells instilled disciple to develop undrafted free agents over time.
This year Dallas focused on their own players more then the last few years because they had FIVE pro-bowl players to resign to long term deals in the same year. They still added a starting corner and would have paid big dollars to get another star FA wide receiver if they could have gotten one without parting with multiple first round picks. How many teams would have kept all five players? Many here called for letting one or more of our all-pro players go because they did not think that Jones could sign them all.
Next year they only need to resign Ware and maybe Burnett. After that he will add starting quality free agents to an already star studded roster. He always has added talented players any way he can.
Rafael,
Nice work. I wonder if Chicago’s corner numbers are as good as they are because their linebackers reduce the coverage area they need to protect.
The best corner unit is a bit of an odd question because it looks at a couple of parts of a larger unit (pass coverage) and it can’t factor in that 3 corners in chicago have a reduced role compared to the 3 starting corners in a Blitizing defense like Phily.
I’m just trying to think aloud Rafael. I really don’t have the answer.
I THINK that we have the best secondary. The fact that YPA, averaged among our 3 makes a statistical basis doesn’t make me feel any better when I see the rest of the list.
Chicago finished 27th as a team based on YPA (yes, all passing plays, not just CBs) and total passing defense. No way does the best set of corners play on the 27th ranked passing defense.
I do, however, agree that the “consensus” could very well be wrong. That Roy Willy was a Pro Bowler on rep is definitely true…if you only consider pass defense. He still might be the best run supporter in the league, not withstanding Reed or Sanders, but I digress.
But like many others here and reflected by rankings in the mediot mainstream rankings, the units are almost always considered as a group.
I know it’s a tired argument, but I’m simply trying to counter that the best indicator is as a team, because measuring one CB against another without taking into account scheme, surrounding talent, and “impact” (i.e., INTs, FFs, tackles, # thrown against) is misleading. Your (K.C.’s) rankings vs overall defensive performance simply does not jive.
Leigh Bodden, Nathan Vasher–these guys came from nowhere in the draft. Chad Johnson said that Leigh was the best corner he faced in ‘05. I’ll take WR’s opinion over the experts. You have to wonder if Scandrick will turn into something special.
Fighter,
Regarding Chicago’s YPA.
1. Vasher missed 12 games and only started 2 last year.
2. I have not seen the safety numbers but I’m guessing Adam Archuleta had awful YPAs. The Cowboys ripped him to pieces in their game. Mike Brown went down one quarter into the season with an ACL tear.
They had Tillman and a rookie playing at the league average on the other side. He was likely supposed to be their nickel. I’m guessing the guy who played nickel for them was awful too.
The Bears played the whole season without their best CB and safety. Look at Dallas and imagine them going all the ‘07 season without Newman and Hamlin, playing Henry, Reeves and Jones at the corners and Keith Davis and Roy W. at safety.
I can easily see that unit finishing 27th or so.
And look beyond one year. Look at Chicago in ‘05 and ‘06. They were 2nd and 1st in yards allowed per pass attempt. They fell to 21st in that stat last year. Did they fall into sucktitude overnight or did they get hurt?