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What’s on Tap Today

Update II:  Waiver claims are starting to become known.  Miami, as expected signed a bunch, including Saints castoff G Andy Allerman.

– The Giants signed Eagles castoff DE Jerome McDougle to add depth to their end ranks.

– The Rams have signed former Panther and Bears CB Ricky Manning.

– Dallas has opened as a 4 point favorite versus Cleveland.

Update: Here are some possible explanations for hoarding 11 offensive linemen and 11 defensive backs.

On the former: Look at Miami. They have only two offensive tackles on their final roster. They’re scouring the wires for depth.

On d-backs. The injuries at WR may be the reason for stocking up here. Miles Austin and Sam Hurd are gunners when healthy. they play on the kickoff coverage teams. Isaiah Stanback plays on kickoff teams.

When you lose these guys you need coverage folks from somewhere, so you turn to the CBs.

Let me add I think the Cowboys made another Matt Moore-esque mistake in cutting Erik Walden. The guy can rush. In my opinion you don’t cut QBs with promise and you don’t cut rushers with promise — ever. Moore has a future, even as a backup. Walden was snapped up by the Chiefs. Several teams put in claims on him.

– The league’s notification of waiver claims was 11 am today (CT). The deadline for waivers was yesterday and teams could make claims on all players eligible for the practice squad. Any team can make a claim on a player, so a highly desirable cut may have, say, ten to twelve claims on him.

The NFL awards claims according to the draft schedule from April. Miami has first claim, all the way down to New York. The Cowboys are very low in the claiming order, so the odds of landing a player are low.

The Cowboys and other teams are probably looking at this option before choosing to cut or perhaps trade a player on their roster.

No News is No News

The Cowboys are one of three teams — the others being Green Bay and Chicago — rumored to be interested in Chris Simms. The local press in each market had no news on Simms this morning.

Keith Davis to Re-join Dallas — on Monday

Now, why would the Cowboys wait to sign Davis until then?

Are more deals in the works?

If no more moves are in play, it will be interesting to see whether they cut an offensive lineman or a defensive back. If they did the former, the Cowboys would have TWELVE d-backs on their roster.

This makes Davis the second coming of Elvis Patterson. He’s not much as a coverage safety, as today’s early story pointed out. He is a good special teams player, however, and the Cowboys could always use more of those.

Final Cuts Suggest Line Moves Ahead

Update: I’m looking at the league waivers and here’s what’s out there.

At quarterback, the list pretty much begins and ends with Chris Simms. Interested in Todd Bouman, Joey Harrington, or Brooks Bollinger ? Didn’t think so. The Tampa Bay Tribune is speculating that Dallas, Green Bay and Chicago are the most likely landing spots for Simms.

At wide receiver, the veteran pickings are slim. Guys like Reche Caldwell, Sammy Parker, Travis Taylor, and Cliff Russell. There may be a name among the rookies and 1st year vets the scouting staff knows and likes, but no names jumped out at me.

I still think another move or two is coming. The Cowboys don’t need eleven offensive linemen or seven corners.

Dallas cut 21 players today, including Larry Allen, who had been signed to a one day contract in order to retire as a Cowboy.

Here’s the full list:

1. OL Larry Allen
2. WR Danny Amendola
3. TE Drew Atchison
4. NT Remi Ayodele
5. WR Mark Bradford
6. RB Alonzo Coleman
7. FB Julius Crosslin
8. SS Dowayne Davis
9. DE Marcus Dixon
10. LB Tearrius George
11. OL Ryan Gibbons
12. TE Rodney Hannah
13. WR Mike Jefferson
14. RB Keon Lattimore
15. OL Cory Lekkerkerker
16. WR Todd Lowber
17. LB Darrell Robertson
18. NT Junior Siavii
19. DE Marcus Smith
20. LB Tyson Smith
21. LB Erik Walden

Comments:

– There’s some surprise that Dallas cut both Danny Amendola and Mike Jefferson. I’m not too surprised. Neither played exceptional football and would have made the team by default. As I wrote Thursday night, if the team finds a WR they like on waivers who is better, they’ll pick him up. If they can find a better WR for a late draft pick, a la Montrae Holland, they’ll pick him up.

This tells me the team has confidence that Miles Austin and Sam Hurd will return to full strength shortly.

– The Cowboys have 11 offensive linemen on their roster. This won’t last. None of the second unit guys were cut — Free, Berger, Procter, Marten and McQuistan. Add Montrae Holland and this is just too many linemen.

A former scout I spoke to a couple of weeks ago told me that offensive and defensive linemen are the hardest players to acquire this time of the year. While Dallas may not love any of the second five, the fact that demand far exceeds supply means a deal may be in the works for one of these guys.

– Surprising cut: Erik Walden. I don’t think the Cowboys are done shaking up their roster and he’s the most likely to be re-signed or pursued for the practice squad, in my opinion.

– Most disappointing: Marcus Dixon. Todd Grantham told me the week before the Chargers game that he was most excited to see this rookie play. Back problems wiped out his entire preseason. He’s another player who’s probably at the top of the practice squad wish list. to

Fun with SF ‘08 IV: How Ken Hamlin Got His Groove Back and Saved the Secondary

Longtime BSR readers know I’ve been using Scientific Football to bash the Cowboys’ inept free safety play under Bill Parcells. For whatever reason, the Tuna neglected the spot, trying to force a strong safety, Keith Davis, into the spot, and later trying to force feed rookie Pat Watkins into the position.

Both projects failed. Here’s a chart showing the free safety direct coverage play in ‘05 under Davis, ‘06 under Watkins, and last season under Ken Hamlin. (SF also tracks deep assists, where the safeties roll up in coverage to help corners.)

Player	Att.	Stops	Succ. %	Yards	YPA	Rank
Keith Davis ‘05	31	14	45.2	485	15.6	36th
Pat Watkins ‘06	11	4	36.4	227	20.6	36th
Ken Hamlin ‘07	22	13	59.1	107	4.9	*

After ‘05 and ‘06 it didn’t seem possible that the Cowboys’ free safety play could get any worse. Davis and Watkins ranked 36th among 36 safeties in their respective years. In other words, the Cowboys had the worst free safety play in the NFL during that time. Add in Roy Williams’ suspect coverage skills and Dallas had a gaping hole in its deep middle.

That’s not a good way to build a Super Bowl push. When Hamlin was signed in April ‘07 I wrote that regardless of whether the Cowboys got the mid-pack ‘06 Hamlin or the top-5 rated ‘05 Hamlin, they were due to improve.

Look at how much they improved. Joyner didn’t list the direct coverage stats for free safeties in this year’s book but only the late Sean Taylor produced a direct coverage YPA better than Hamlin’s. With Hamlin in the deep middle the one-play 70 yard TD pass drives Cowboys’ fans witnessed in ‘05 and ‘06 disappeared.

Hamlin’s yards allowed total is less than one quarter of what Davis allowed in ‘05. It’s less than half of Watkins’ ‘06 total. (And remember that Watkins was benched in mid-season, so his totals are only a fragment of the team total.)

If Dallas can keep its cornerbacks healthy, it can be a real force with Hamlin in the middle, no matter what type of year Roy Williams has at strong safety. Hamlin missed OTAs bargaining for a better contract but when you look at these numbers it’s hard to begrudge him one penny of his new deal.

Hangover Friday — Gustav May Have Saints Marching to Indy

With New Orleans nervously eyeing Tropical Storn Gustav’s progress — it’s anticipated track has it making landfall in the Louisiana area on either Sunday or Monday — the Saints announced last night that they would move their organization to Indianapolis if necessary.

From the league’s perspective, could the team survive another displacement?  They are already being considered as a possible tenant in a new Los Angeles stadium.

Look for Quick Cuts

There was a point early in the 3rd quarter where a play rolled up at Wade Phillips feet and he could barely be bothered to look.

He wasn’t alone.  This was a hard game to watch.  At the same time, it was an easy game to watch for the coaches.  I’m sure they had a pretty good idea of which players would make their squad before the game kicked off.  Aside from some key bubble guys — Evan Oglesby, Danny Amendola, Mike Jefferson — I doubt they’ll have to debate too vigorously about whom to keep and whom to cut.  Sam Hurd’s injury might shake up their thinking a little bit.  Otherwise, I don’t see the team hesitating to make its final cuts.

The deadline for cuts is Saturday, but with so many teams holding out their starters today, I expect tomorrow’s waiver wire to be flooded.  Teams won’t want to wait until the last minute.  They’ll want to see whom other teams cut and try to land a waiver claim or two that way.

In Dallas’ case, don’t assume Jefferson or Amendola make the team by default, given the injuries to Hurd, Austin and Stanback.  If a wideout shakes free, and the scouts rate him higher than what’s on the WR list, the Cowboys will put in a claim.

Instant Analysis — Halftime

This game will require extensive tape view.  The unanswered questions are for guys on the line and in the secondary.

Who’s given themselves a shot:

– Overall, the special teams units have been solid, pretty good on punt returns and really good on punt and kickoff coverage. Erik Walden made Dallas’ first two kickoff tackles and greatly helped his cause in doing so.

– On the line, it’s a mixed bag.  Pat McQuistan has looked okay at left guard, though he let a DT cut inside him on a running play for a loss.  Everybody had had their rough spots.  Doug Free got beaten on a pass.  Joe Berger has had his moments pulling but has also missed people.  I keep seeing Cory Procter getting jacked.  He was knocked backwards on Sam Hurd’s 35 yard reverse.

– I have not seen any single defensive player step away from the rest, though the better players are being more steady.  Stephen Bowen, Orlando Scandrick, Bobby Carpenter, Pat Watkins.  These guys are around the football.

–

Cowboys vs. Vikings 2nd Quarter Thread

Game is getting sloppy. The Cowboys lead 10-7 after a long Vikings drive.

– The Cowboys coverage teams have been solid tonight. The injury to Sam Hurd, in addition to Miles Austin’s injury, thins Dallas’ gunners ranks.

– Tyson Smith got his pick on Dallas’ first series, but has looked lost since. He let his man get free on a big bootleg pass on the Vikings’ TD drive and was lost on a good middle pass this series.

Cowboys vs. Vikings First Quarter Thread

7:37 — Joe Berger misses a switch on a twist and Bartel is pressured into a 3rd down incompletion. Nick Folk gets a 50 yard attempt which he pulls just wide.

7:33 — Bartel is moving the Cowboys again, with two big play action completions.

Minnesota is flagged for an illegal formation after a punt. Dallas starts at its 30.

Three and out for the Vikings. Pat Watkins made a good fill on 2nd down and Stephen Bowen got strong pressure up the middle to force a checkoff pass.

Great blocks on the edge by Deon Anderson and Tony Curtis caving in the left end. Joe Berger had an easy and short pull. He got a hat on the ILB and Choice had the corner.

7:24 — Deon Anderson takes a delay 14 yards to the eleven. Tashard Choice then breaks a tackle around LT for a touchdown.

Update: Sam Hurd is having his left ankle x-rayed.

7:23 — Tyson Smith picks off Booty, returning to the Minnesota 24.

7:22 — All backups for the Cowboys. John David Booty is thye QB for the Vikings.

7:21 — Folk’s kickoff is two yards deep. The Vikings returner is stopped at the Dallas 22.

You can’t tailgate like you used to at Texas Stadium anymore, but you can here!

Take it away…

Opening lineup notes:

O-line, LT to RT:

• LT — Free
• LG - McQuistan
• C- Procter
• RG — Berger
• RT — Marten

WRs are Hurd and Jefferson.

Felix and Anderson are in the backfield. Curtis is the TE. Richard Bartel is the QB.

Big plays:

35 yard reverse left to Sam Hurd.

Felix Jones bounces a run outside RT for 12 yards to the Minnesota 8.

Sam Hurd is having an ankle examined by the trainers. He appeared to have his ankle trapped under him on the reverse. Hurd is walking with a limp to the locker room right now.

The drive stalls at the Dallas five. Nick Folk converts the field goal.

Holland = Gesek?

In the summer of ‘90, the Cowboys took a small risk and gained a huge reward, shipping a 6th round pick to Oakland for guard John Gesek.  Gesek was never up to the standards of his Cowboys linemates, all of whom made the Pro Bowl.  He was steady, however and earned two Super Bowl rings in ‘92 and ‘93.

Dallas made a similar low-risk move today, sending a 5th round pick in 2010 to Denver for G Montrae Holland.  Holland had fallen out with the Denver coaching staff after reporting overweight and the move seems like an attempt by the Broncos to get something for a player they did not plan on keeping.  (The pick is in 2010, not 2009.)

The former Florida Seminole was a 4th round pick for New Orleans in 2003 and started all sixteen games for Denver last year.

Holland likely moves into the backup guard position and puts backups Joe Berger and James Marten on hot seats.  The team engages in self scouting, ranking its players at every position.  I know that one observer I spoke to rated ‘07 4th rounder Doug Free as 6 on the OL depth chart, but spots 7-9 were in flux.

Assuming backup Pat McQuistan can hold the LG spot while Kosier rehabs (we can’t assume that Holland is in game shape if the Broncos were dissatisfied enough by his conditioning to dump him), the team has a serious problem with coverage behind him.

Free worked almost exclusively at left tackle in camp.  If McQuistan is plugged in as a starter the Cowboys have no adequate backup for RT and at guard.  Consider that McQuistan got many of the starting reps in practice this week, and gets first crack at Kosier’s spot, though he’s only played RT in the preseason games.  This isn’t a good sign for second-unit guards Joe Berger and James Marten.

I’d say Marten is definitely on thin ice and Berger may be as well.  Then again, backup center Cory Procter has had all kinds of trouble with power rushers.  Watch the interior line carefully tonight to see if Berger gets any reps at center.

Holland’s addition means you’ll likely see the last of at least one of the second line C/Gs tonight.

Fun with SF ‘08 III, or Why Jason Witten Will Have a Career Year in ‘08

Update:  The Commissioner has re-instated Adam Jones.

I’ve written on many occasions the past few years about Dallas’ search for a fullback to replace Daryl Johnston. Some stats in the newest - and best — Scientific Football ‘08 illustrate how Deon Anderson’s shoulder injury hampered the Cowboys’ passing game, particularly the ways the team used Jason Witten, and how Anderson’s return can improve them.

We know that the Cowboys have been a two tight end heavy team the past few years. I doubt this is by design. The ’90s Cowboys relied mostly on what the team now calls its 21 package, with a fullback, a tailback, one tight end and two receivers.

The Bill Parcells Cowboys would have preferred this as well, but could not locate an adequate fullback in the draft. Lousaka Polite stuck around a while but never had the pop to excel as a lead blocker. The team had some success converting Oliver Hoyte from linebacker to fullback but he lacked the speed and receiving skills to play extensively.

The Cowboys appeared to have found their man when they drafted Anderson last year, but he went on IR after only four starts with a rotator cuff injury. Without him the team had to rely a lot more on their 12 packages, which have one back and two tight ends.

From this look the Cowboys use a traditional tight end, who lines up next to an offensive tackle, and an F-back, who flexes up and down the line, eventually lining up as a second tight end on the line; on a wing outside the first tight end; or in the backfield as a lead blocker.

Cowboys fans think of Jason Witten as the Cowboys tight end threat and of guys like Tony Curtis and the departed Anthony Fasano as the blocking tight ends, but in ‘07 those roles were reversed. Witten was the team’s primary blocking tight end. This is one big reason why Fasano now plays for the Dolphins. He struggled as the F-back and when the Cowboys needed tough inside blocking, they had to turn to their number one to get the job done.

That doesn’t seem to have affected Witten’s receiving stats. In ‘06, he ranked 5th among TEs with an 8.3 YPA. In ‘07, that number dipped ever so slightly, to 8.2. More consistently good play from Witten, right?

Yes and no. Take a look at the number of attempts Witten had in Sparano 2.0 in ‘06 and in Garrett 1.0 last year:

• 2006 — 90 attempts;
• 2007 — 141 attempts;

People frequently comment that Terrell Owens is the Cowboys number one and Witten is really the number two receiver. That’s close, but if you go by attempts, they’re really 1 and 1A in Garrett’s scheme. Owens had 139 attempts last year to Witten’s 141. That’s a 1:1 ratio. In ‘06 T.O. saw 152 balls while Witten had 90.

The loss of Terry Glenn last year greatly increased Witten’s load. Glenn had 112 attempts in ‘06. By comparison, Patrick Crayton had only 80 attempts as the #2 last year.

A closer look at the quality of Witten’s attempts shows how Anderson’s loss and Fasano’s flameout compromised Witten’s receiving capabilities. Let’s break down Witten’s attempts by distance:

Jason Witten	Attempts	% of Att.	YPA	Rank
Short, 1-10 yds.	97	69	6.2	8th
Medium, 11-19 yds.	32	23	7.3	6th
Deep, 20-29 yds.	10	7	10.4	5th
total	141	99	8.2	7th

Witten had an extraordinary number of short attemps. 69% of his catches were on routes of ten yards of less. That percentage was easily the highest among the bigger name tight ends. Only 49% of Antonio Gates routes were short; 59% of Tony Gonzalez’ attempts were short. Witten’s closest rival was Chris Cooley, who saw 65% of his attempts fall in the short category.

Yet, Witten was very effective in medium and deep routes. Of tight ends with more than 32 attempts (2 per game) Witten ranked first in medium YPA. Of TEs with more than 10 deep attempts, Witten far outranked his peers. His 19.5 deep YPA was more than six yards better than runner up Cooley’s 13.4 deep YPA.

Witten can make a case that he’s the best receiving tight end in the game. In ‘07, however, the Cowboys didn’t fully utilize him as a downfield receiver. Look at the number of times a TE “flexed” or lined up wide as a receiver last year:

Player	Attempts at WR	% of Att.
Heath Miller, Pitt.	14	23.3
Jason Witten, Dall.	33	23.4
Tony Gonzales, K.C.	59	41.0
Chris Cooley, Wash.	51	48.1
Antonio Gates, S.D.	68	62.4
Kellen Winslow, Cle.	105	74.5

Witten got far fewer chances in space than his peers. That’s no slam on Jason Garrett. Anderson’s injury made Witten the only dependable lead blocker the Cowboys had last year. With Anderson back and with Curtis and Martellus Bennett learning the F-back role, I expect to see Witten spending less time in the backfield and more time blasting up the field. I’m predicting a career year for him.

(If you want further evidence that Witten is the best overall tight end in football, this last chart should settle the argument. When you line up almost half of the time as a receiver, as Tony Gonzales and Chris Cooley do, you can’t be part of the discussion. When you line up as a receiver as much as Gates and Winslow do, you’re a tight end in name only.)

As good as Witten was last year, he has the teammates to let him be that much better in ‘08. That has to give the linebackers and safeties on Dallas’ schedule pause.

Toast Redux? Miami Cuts Keith Davis

In the glory seasons of ‘92 and ‘93 Jimmy Johnson was so certain of his starting depth that he dedicated roster spots exclusively to marginal players who excelled on special teams. Most notable was Elvis Patterson, known at his previous stops as “Toast” because he was burned so often when he played in the secondary. Toast was a special teams demon, and he was teamed with Kenny Gant, Matt Vanderbeek and others to form an effective coverage unit.

The chance of a Toast deja vu arose today when Miami put Keith Davis and his Amazing Bullet-Attracting Technicolor Backside back on the market, releasing him just before the Dolphins left for Miami to play their pre-season finale.

My initial reaction is no. The Cowboys have seen more of the inconsistency that hurt the coverage teams last year. However, we need to remember that Davis was on the field when the special teams had their late season problems in ‘06 and in ‘07, with Bruce DeHaven and Bruce Read. It’s not as if the units were strong and collapsed when Davis left.

What’s more, the other guys on Dallas’ core special teams list — Kevin Burnett, Bobby Carpenter, Justin Rogers and Pat Watkins, are mostly seen as having the opportunity to become future starters, or at least fill in capably if the starters ahead of them are injured. Dallas knows Davis offers little value as a free safety. He had the worst coverage metrics of any starting safety when he started in the Parcells days.

He seemed miscast and backed up Roy Williams capably last year, but obtaining him likely means cutting somebody like Courtney Brown. Would you be willing to give up on his future for the possibility of short term gain with Davis back in a Cowboys uniform?

Discuss.

Opportunity Knocks — Will McQuistan Take It?

Random thoughts and news blurbs while I work on the next Scientific Football-related post (those things take a little time to write):

1.  Bullet Bob Hayes will get another shot at a deserved Hall of Fame induction, thanks to the Veterans’ Committee;

2.  The Cowboys have sent a letter to Commissioner Roger Goodell asking for Adam Jones’ reinstatement.  It’s only eleven days till Cleveland, folks.  It’s time for an up or down fro the league.

3.  I’ve been bullish on Pat McQuistan since he was drafted.  He’s big, fast and diligent.  A source who has seen his development was also quite high on him, saying he lived in the weight room his rookie and second years and, “you could see the physical development,” with him.

It has therefore been puzzling and disappointing to see him wobble at right tackle this summer.  He’s had his good days but has also had his down days.  He seems to be one player who has struggled adjusting from Tony Sparano’s program to Hudson Houck’s.

It will therefore be interesting to see how he performs tomorrow at left guard.  The Vikings have two talented and different DTs.  Pat Williams is a Jamal Williams-sized roadblock and Kevin Williams is a large, speedy tackle.  Both are powerful.  They will be tough opponents but offer a real challenge for McQuistan and any of the other guard options.

McQuistan is 325, which is why he’s getting first crack at the spot.  Joe Berger and James Marten have had their problems inside and Dallas wants somebody who can anchor against bull rushes.  McQuistan has the body for the job.   Will he have the technique?  He could make this job his own if he’s ready for the audition.

Fun With SF ‘08 II, or why T.O. is Happy With Jason Garrett as O.C.

At Oxnard, I asked Jason Garrett to describe the Cowboys’ offensive philosophy. “People get caught up in names,” I said. “They say this team runs a West Coast offense and that team runs a run-and-shoot. What offensive schools are in your playbook?”

He didn’t give it much thought. “People everywhere in the league run the same things,” he said. “It comes down to putting your people in the right situations…”

Terrell Owens, I think, would heartily agree. When Wade Phillips took over the team he remarked that the ‘06 Cowboys had used Owens almost exclusively at the X position (split end) and that his Cowboys would motion Owens a lot more and try to create more of those favorable matchups that Garrett mentioned.

Mission accomplished. K.C. Joyner’s metrics in his brand new Scientific Football 2008 demonstrate how effective Garrett was at the matchup game with Owens last year and why he’s considered such a hotshot assistant.

Owens, as I mentioned yesterday, had a top-tier overall YPA for 2007. Among receivers who were thrown the ball over 100 times, Owens ranked 2nd behind Reggie Wayne in this metric. And he wasn’t padding his numbers beating up on weaklings, at least not all the time. Owens ranked 4th in YPA when facing top-tier “red” cornerbacks.

A look at the types of matchups Owens faced shows Garrett’s skill. Joyner breaks WR attempts into five categories — attempts versus red, yellow and green corners; attempts versus unranked CBs (those who did not have enough plays to make his final CB rankings) and attempts versus non-CBs.

Owens had 139 attempts last year, meaning Dallas threw him over nine passes per game in his 15 games. Here they are broken down by class:

Terrell Owens	Attempts	% of Att.	YPA
vs. red CBs	18	13	9.4
vs. yellow CBs	47	34	7.3
vs. green CBs	18	13	10.4
vs. non-rated CBs	12	8	4.8
vs. non CBs	44	32	13.3
total	139	100	9.7

Note the solid numbers across the board, with the notable exception of those 12 attempts against Nate Jones-caliber CBs. It’s almost as if T.O. was bored playing against those guys.

The more important stat is the remarkably high percentage of attempts against non-cornerbacks. Teams knew every week that Owens was Dallas’ prime receiving weapon. And with Jason Witten motioning so much into the backfield (he ranked near the bottom among TEs last year in plays where he was “flexed” or used as a WR) you would think secondaries could key on Owens even more.

Yet Garrett was able to get Owens 74 attempts, 53% of his total, against green-level CBs, non-rated CBs or non CBs. And Owens tore up safeties and linebackers. His 13.3 YPA against them ranked only behind Randy Moss’ and Joey Galloway among full-time starters.

When you look at the tiered YPAs the OCs who can best exploit matchups jump out. I mentioned yesterday that Joey Galloway had a poor YPA against red CBs, yet he ranked 3rd overall in raw YPAs. That’s because Jon Gruden got him 54% of his attempts against green-CBs, non-rated CBs and non-CBs.

Want to know why the Patriots set so many offensive records last year? Look at John McDaniel’s success in creating favorable matchups for his guys. Wes Welker had 138 attempts last year and 90 of them, a solid 65% were against non-cornerbacks

Think about that. Teams knew Welker was the Patriots’ second option after Randy Moss and yet they could only get a cornerback of any quality on him one third of the time.

The best OCs can get their best weapons into favorable matchups regularly. Garrett’s success in creating such matchups for T.O. last year is one big reason why Owens was so eager to re-sign with the team. And it’s one more reason why I believe the offense will continue to be successful without a big-name #2 receiver.

I want to thank K.C. Joyner again for allowing me free rein with his stats. Scientific Football 2008 and his new book “Blindsided” can be ordered at: http://thefootballscientist.com

Fun With SF ‘08, Or Why Anquan Boldin Isn’t Worth A Huge Deal

A few months ago, when the Arizona Cardinals were in a contract impasse with WR Larry Fitzgerald, I got a call from a source who wanted to discuss trade packages Dallas might assemble for him. This source has worked in the business a long time and has a very good idea of player value.

We discussed a 1st round pick and a quality player off the Dallas roster as a starting point. When I mentioned that this might remind lots of Cowboys fans about the Joey Galloway deal and invite a backlash, the source was quick and firm with his retort: “Larry Fitzgerald isn’t Joey Galloway.”

The question recurs now that the Cowboys have seen their back WR roster thinned by injury, with Miles Austin and Isaiah Stanback on the mend and with Fitzgerald’s WR partner Anquan Boldin screaming for a new deal. The Dallas papers invite trade proposals on a regular basis, with one scribe suggesting Dallas offer a 1st rounder, Marcus Spears, and Miles Austin for Boldin and a 3rd.

Fair? Not according to the metrics in the brand spanking new copy of Scientific Football 2008. K.C. Joyner’s latest is easily his best, with more nuance than any of his previous books. (I highly recomment buying it at your bookstore on or his website, where you can get an instantaneous electronic download.)

One area of greater detail is wide receiver YPA stats. In the past, Joyner has compiled simple YPA numbers, looking at attempts and yards against opposing defenses. This year, he not only looks at a receiver’s production, but the quality of the corners he’s beating. Joyner takes his cornerback YPAs and breaks NFL CBs into three categories: Red corners have YPAs under 7; numbers like this put them in the top third of the league in any given year. Yellow corners are those with YPAs between 7-9. They are what you might call “league average” corners. Green corners are those with YPAs above 9. They’re the bottom third, the guys you need to fill out rosters and nickel or dime packages, but would replace if you could.

Joyner notes that Boldin and Fitzgerald have almost identical raw YPAs. In ‘07, they were identical, with both receivers posting very respectable 9.2s, which tied them for 17th, just behind Randy Moss and just ahead of Detroit’s Roy Williams.

Not all YPAs are created equal, however, as Joyner’s ratings-per-color-level show:

Player	vs. Red CBs	vs. Yellow CBs	vs. Green CBs
Larry Fitzgerald	9.1	8.5	13.6
Anquan Boldin	4.9	7.1	15.6

These metrics tells a very different story. Fitzgerald, as we can see, beats everybody, red, yellow and green. His 9.1 versus red corners ranked 5th in that category, right behind some guy named Terrell Owens. Boldin’s 4.9? Not so good; that number tied him for 47th.

While their production numbers are almost identical, let’s not kid ourselves. Fitzgerald is the number one in Arizona’s attack. Boldin is number two. Teams assign their best corners to Fitzgerald — and he beats them anyway. Boldin is very effective at beating 2nd and 3rd tier corners, exactly as a number two should, but when Arizona has faced teams with two top quality corners, or when teams have assigned their top guy to Boldin, he’s struggled.

What can we take from this?

1. For all the abuse he’s taken in the press, Arizona GM Rod Graves absolutely made the right decision. He paid Fitzgerald number one money and is paying Boldin top dollar for a number two, as he should.
2. My guy was on the money this Spring. Larry Fitzgerald isn’t Joey Galloway. He’s much better. (Galloway, if you’re wondering, finished 3rd overall in ‘07 raw YPAs, with a 10.9, but was a lousy 53rd versus red corners, with a 4.6 average. This tells me Tampa Bay faced some poor secondaries in ‘07.)
3. These numbers should temper the outrageous packages we hear from the gallery for Boldin and Detroit’s Roy Williams. The Cowboys have a legitimate number one in Owens. The thinking pre-draft was to obtain a young receiver who could complement him and eventually replace him. Both Boldin and Williams can certainly complement T.O. but neither shows the top end performance to take his place. Williams’ YPA versus red corners was a poor 4.3, which ranked 58th overall. It’s not that much better than Patrick Crayton’s number.
4. That doesn’t mean that Boldin and Williams don’t have value. But Jerry Jones’ unwillingness to pay a number one price for a number two shows that he has good data at his disposal. If Dallas felt a real need to pursue Boldin, I’d offer Arizona a number one, but no more. Given the fact that Boldin is unhappy with getting $4 million a year, which seems like a fair salary to me given his game, I doubt that he would pout any less if the Cowboys got him and refused to re-work his deal. For that reason, I don’t think he’s worth the potential headache.

If Dallas wants to make the proverbial big splash and get a complement who can be a number one if T.O. gets injured, they’re better off asking about Steve Smith, who beats red corners for an 8.4 YPA.

Me? I’ll wait for Miles Austin to complete his rehab. If he can beat yellow and green corners, and not cost the Cowboys high picks and big money, he’s the best value.

Stop Living in the Past

I see the Kneejerk Chorus on other sites calling for Larry Allen to be re-signed to fill in for the injured Kyle Kosier. I’ll bet some of them even feel Allen could replace Kosier.

This isn’t 1998 folks. It’s 2008. Allen was an all-timer in his time, but that time has passed. Joyner’s pass protection metrics show that Kosier surrendered 2.5 sacks in 2007. That puts him in a tie for 29th, or mid-pack at his position. Allen gave up 4.5, tying him for 53rd. And Justin Blalock, the darling of so many draftniks here? He ranked dead last among guards, giving up 9.5 sacks.

Given that he’s been in retirement the past few months, I doubt a rusty Larry Allen could step in and be any better than the backup options Dallas has available.

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