Beware the Week One Rush to Judgement
Posted: September 4, 2008 @ 10:53 pm
NFL fans can’t wait. They’ve been without football since early February and they’re getting real football back. Their hearts are racing. Their minds are spinning.
And it leads to outrageous over reactions to good play and bad. I’ve said for years that week one of the NFL schedule is the most overanalyzed. People form hard opinions of teams that are hard to shake.
Week one reveals very litte in the long run. It resembles the end of ‘07 more than it will tell us how ‘08 will unfold. There are several factors that make it unlike any other. First, it’s the only regular season game for most teams where the staffs will have more than three to four days to prepare. For the remainder of the season coaches will have to put Sunday’s game behind them and have fresh game plans ready to install that Wednesday and Thursday.
This week, coaches can unwrap game plans that have been weeks in the making. Dallas started practicing for the Browns last week, when the Vikings were still on their schedule.
There’s the conditioning issue. Some teams have been holding back injured starters to keep them for real games. This means you’ll see teams that might not have their timing down or have the stamina to go 60 minutes. If you saw the Giants/Redskins opener you know what I’m writing. The Giants looked like they were going to run Washington off the field, racing to a second-quarter 16-0 lead. But the game stalled in the second half, where neither team scored a point.
There are teams with new staffs that are learning new systems. They’re often not ready to play their best ball on opening day.
Weeks two and three are much better indicators or what a team will be. Don’t misunderstand, I’m not trying to downplay Dallas’ odds. I think they’ll win, in part because too many Cleveland starters missed too much time this summer, a point I’ll address in the final preview today. That said, there’s a chance parts of the Cowboys game will be ragged.
Think back to last year. The Cowboys won their opener against a division rival and yet a lot of fans were white hot at Wade Phillips because his team gave up 35 points. He was a fraud, they said, a defensive coach with no defense. The secondary was doomed because Terence Newman was hurt.
Was this game a true indicator of the defense’s and the team’s future? No. The Cowboys allowed 20, 10 and 7 points in the next three games and finished the month 4-0.
Root hard, my friends, but don’t root yourself sick. There will be a week two and a week three, and thirteen more game weeks after that.
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1st!!!!!!
God that feels good!
But-that would be so realistic and take all the fun out of it, Raf!
As far as this game, I’m excited to see how Zach T plays, after our horrible angles and tackling last year. He should be good for stopping one opposing drive a game by making a play where Ayodele wouldn’t…and help make up for the safeties bad angles, or more likely, the lack of safeties to help in tackling since we’ll often have 3 corners out there…..
I’m nervous about the OLine-it’s a fact that this team never seems to handle injuries well, and especially on the OLine. Our backups never seem ready to step in and do the job. Mistakes will happen, but let’s hope Romo doesn’t get hurt as a result.
Oh, I’m not for realism. That is boring. I’m just averse to high melodrama, to ledge climbing or anointing after one game.
So you’ll have your new post ready in 2 more minutes Raf?? I won’t go to bed just yet then.
I’m wanting to see Zach play too. I’m hoping he’ll be better at coverage myself. That’s something I still think our LB’s suck at. I want to see that short, quick passing game SHUT DOWN. I’m hoping with our depth at CB, and with our ability to put Henry on TE’s, that we’re finally going to be able to cover those athletic TE’s and we’ll finally be able to stop other teams on 3rd down.
I wasn’t planning on hitting the publish button until morning but I have to shuttle mom to the doctor. What ‘ya gonna do?
http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/09/05/ted-sunquists-week-one-scouting-reports-cowboys-at-browns/
Very good break down of the browns vs Cowboys from the Browns perspective. Written by former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist
Whoops - I posted this one thread back (analysis - Part III) not realizing there was a new thread. Sorry for the double post.
X’s and O’s are not my strong suit. Focusing on Wright, if I understand your analysis, we’re trying to maximize the snaps he doesnt cover TO or PC, or put another way, we would like for him to cover Stanback as much as possible. If it works, it’ll put Stanback in the unsung hero role - he might end up with not much to show for the day in terms of personal stats, armchair QBs may use it as fodder for the “he cant produce, let’s cut bait” argument, but cognoscenti will know that he played a key role in what is hopefully a win - is that the drift?
Also, what is the latest on whether Jefferson or Amendola come up to the big boy squad? What is the closest to kickoff Sunday such a move could happen? Who would we cut to make room?
Oh, and I would like to repeat something I asked a while ago but never saw an answer to. so on the banner for this website, different pictures of cowboys are displayed for different visits. i recognize ‘em all but one - the bald guy. Who is that?
El (post #9) - I actually think that’s our heralded leader, the Raf-meister! go Raf! Anyone else know? Am I right?
Tex is enamored with Jim Zorn. Replacing Gibbs, Saunders, and Williams with this guy was a stroke of genius by little Danny Snyder. Here’s hoping the beleaguered former quarterback gets a cozy ten-year extension to stay in Washington.
PS: Tex would still like to see lil’ Phil Simms come to Dallas. Come on Chris… check the ego at the door, take the minimum, and spend the next five years backing up on a Super-Bowl caliber team. And, when Romo runs off with Tila Tequila sometime around Thanksgiving, step in and make some plays.
Sunday feels like a month away!!! Watching live fire last night has me deep in rut for the boys……
AWWWWWW YEEEEEAAHHHH…..
Norm,
Great link; a real rarity for that scumhole. I still visit that place a few times a day but usually just end up browsing over most of that junk as actually reading it might rot your brain. As the article started, it should be a real brawl between the big nasties in the middle. Leonard Davis really needs to maul Rogers like he did Jamal Williams in the preseason opener.
As for last night’s slobberknocker: What was that offense the Redskins ran in the last 7 minutes of the 4th quarter; the “no hurry, no worries?” They sure were dragging ass. Hey, I know, let’s run it up the middle every other play with Portis; they won’t be expecting that. We might catch them off guard…….or grind the clock down for them. Maybe Zorn was so nauseated by their lack of a passing game that even he just wanted the game to hurry the hell up and end.
I actually thought that throw Eli made on their first possession with that defender draped all over him was a better effort than the play in the Super Bowl where one guy only had a hand full of his jersey and the other lazy Patsies pig just sort of hugged him. Of course, Burress did an impressive juggling act just to haul it in. Nice to see that piece of trash Brandon Jacobs blatantly slap a guy across the helmet after a play but magically not draw a flag for it.
As for the fast start by the Giants, sure, some of it can be attributed to opening day malaise, and probably even the fact that the Giants had to know all they had to do was eat up the clock. However, I expect them to be this up-and-down all year. Also, Kevin Boss had a big fat zero catches and the only time he got mentioned was that he’s had trouble becoming a consistent blocker.
Onto Sunday; if Newman is more gimpy than expected and Pacman actually has to start, it might actually help him as he’ll be forced to get back in the groove sooner via trial by fire instead of gradually working his way up to taking Henry’s starting spot. Whatever the case is, it’s definitely not as dire as starting Jacques friggin’ Reeves this same time last year.
I agree with Tex ! The skins need to lock Zorn up for good maybe a lifetime contract. I’m not so sure about the spleenless wonder though.
ElBerraco
That, my friend, would be Rafael …
OK cool - but where’s a shot of your mug???
I’m not only the silent partner, I’m the invisible partner …
madmick - i can’t agree with this enough…
“Nice to see that piece of trash Brandon Jacobs blatantly slap a guy across the helmet after a play but magically not draw a flag for it.”
can’t S-T-A-N-D that dude…so here’s a thought to ponder - esp. since we play the N.Y. Ninnies @ least twice a year…Jacobs is barreling right down the middle with a full head of steam….one of our ‘boyz’, on the opposite side of the ball has the chance to get up a head of steam of his own and take on Jacobs….which Cowboy would be want that to be? I was thinking Tank….the first thought was naturally D-Ware…he’s very strong for his size, but jeez that Jacobs is a damn BULL….who is the best suited Cowboy to knock that dude not only down, but BACKwards?
Looz,
270 lbs coming at you with a head of steam is not the time to play tough guy. I say go low……..oh…….about knee level, preferrably the one he’s planted on at that instant.
I just read the PFT article. Pretty well done. We’re all spoiled by Raf. Most of the comments were from people who went nuts over in-depth analysis. We get it daily.
Loozeena- I would like to see the Roy W. of old come and lay a hit on Brandon. Roy can hit when he takes the correct angle and commits himself to initiating pain. I wish Roy would get back to laying the wood like Atwater used to do for the Broncos.
But boy oh boy, you cannot sit there like Landry did and let a moving target hit you of that size. He’s lucky he didn’t get a neck injury tackling like that. Have to admit though, that was funny to see.
uh…BC is BIG. I would love to see his “finesse” ass knock Jacobs backward and then say to himself “self…that’s how you play ball!”
Raul,
No problem staying invisible, ’cause you’re doing a great job!