Cowboys Pre-season Schedule Aug. 8: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys, Canton, Ohio (NBC) TBD:…
March 31, 2010
Cowboys Pre-season Schedule
Aug. 8: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys, Canton, Ohio (NBC)
TBD: Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys
TBD: Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers
Aug. 28: Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (CBS)
TBD: Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys
The VRR: It’s a Busy Day for the Dallas Cowboys Down at Valley Ranch
March 31, 2010
Jay LaPrete - AP
Illinois’ WR Arrelious Benn is one of several potential Dallas draft picks visiting the Cowboys today at Valley Ranch.
[Ed. Note]: Before jumping into the VRR, here’s a quick update on the training camp fundraiser. So far 14 readers have contributed just under $600. That’s a pretty good start, thanks guys! Anybody else wanting to donate, just hit the button below.
— Dave and Raf
——
Day number three of the offseason workout program. Potential draftees making their visits. Valley Ranch is indeed abuzz today.
Obviously, the biggest name arriving is Idaho’s Mike Iupati; although, he may not be there when the Cowboys are on the clock. Here are the other players visiting Valley Ranch right now…as you read this!
Indiana (Pa.) defensive back Akwasi Owusu-Ansah
Illinois receiver Arrelious Benn
Ohio receiver Taylor Price
Umass offensive lineman Vladimir Ducasse
Penn State linebackers Sean Lee and Navarro Bowman
Cal defensive end Tyson Alualu
Georgia Tech safety Morgan Burnett
LSU safety Chad Jones
Wake Forest defensive back Brandon Ghee.
More VRR after the jump.
What could the Cowboys be thinking with Penn State OLB Navarro Bowman?
If the Cowboys draft Bowman, projected as a late first rounder, it adds some pressure to a crowded core of outside linebackers behind Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware.
Jerry Jones will have dinner tonight with OSU receiver Dez Bryant.
Bryant’s Pro Day workout is receiving mixed reviews. But it’s all good; he just forgot his cleats.
We’re told that Bryant forgot to bring his cleats, and that as a result he had to wear a pair of brand-new shoes, which had not properly been broken in. As a result, Bryant was slipping, as NFLN’s Mike Mayock pointed out when discussing the workout on the air.
Per a league source, at least one team measured Bryant’s times in the 40-yard dash at 4.57 and 4.62 seconds, within the 4.52 to 4.68 range reported by NFL.com. He presumably would have run faster, but for the slipping.
Nick Eatman examines the possibility of the Cowboys drafting Dexter McCluster. Hmmm…
So how’s a fourth back going to figure into the mix? Well, he better figure into something else, too. Like he better be able return kickoffs, punts or even both. Or maybe he can be a slot receiver, run the Razorback or even cover kicks on special teams. But the point to all this is that if the Cowboys are indeed going to increase the role for Jones, then maybe adding a player that can at least simulate his skills would be important, too. Anyone out there like that?
Well, the obvious answer is Ole Miss tailback Dexter McCluster. Right now, no one really knows what he is in terms of an NFL player. Is he a running back? A third-down back? A slot receiver? A return guy? The Cowboys know one thing - he’s a good football player. And fortunately for them, they’re in the business of taking good players first, and then figuring out where to play them.
Echoing Raf’s post on the flexibility Alan Ball provides the Cowboys, Todd Archer looks at three prospects who may fit with the Cowboys as players who can contribute at different positions.
Three guys come to mind: Cal defensive lineman Tyson Alualu, Indiana (Pa.) defensive back Akwasi Owusu-Ansah and Idaho guard Mike Iupati. On his highlight tape we had the other day Alualu played both defensive end spots and nose tackle. Owusu-Ansah is a cornerback by trade but some think he can play safety, and he could also return kicks and punts. Iupati is the best guard in the draft, according to many, but there were rumblings coming out of the Senior Bowl of him having tackle feet.
It’s strength and conditioning coach Joe Juraszek’s time to shine with the players right now.
The workloads are equal, but the methods vary a little from player to player. Juraszek and his coaches develop specific plans for each, and they work closely with the Cowboys’ medical and training staff to create specialized programs for rehabbing players. Three rookies from 2009 - offensive lineman Robert Brewster and linebackers Stephen Hodge and Brandon Williams - had season-ending injuries last year.
“Early it’s real general because we’re trying to set general physical preparation for everyone,” Juraszek said. “Once we get to a point and we achieve that, then we become specialized - 1) to the individual and 2) to the guys at the position they play and the physical demands of that.”
After missing Monday’s voluntary workout, Ken Hamlin rejoined the team yesterday at Valley Ranch.
Will one day of lifting and running make a significant difference in Hamlin’s prospects for this season? Probably not. But it does send a curious message to a team who, judging by reports, is debating cutting ties with him after three seasons.
With Flozell Adams and Hamlin participating in the offseason program, it’s looking less likely that they will be released.
The fact the Cowboys have waited almost a month into free agency without cutting ties with either player is seemingly a good sign for them as well. Typically the club would want to be fair with its players, and give them a legitimate chance to land on their feet. Terrell Owens and safety Roy Williams were released just a week into free agency last year.
The Cowboys haven’t shown any urgency to move on from Adams or Hamlin.
The Marion Barber trade talk is all speculation at this point.
We watched Jason La Canfora of NFL Network’s report about Barber Monday. He was careful not to say the Cowboys were shopping Barber, just that executives around the league believe Barber could be available. That’s hardly a stunner.
Barber is set to make $7.8 million in 2010 and has two cheap, excellent young teammates at running back. With those circumstances, it would be surprising if Barber wasn’t available — whether the Cowboys have shopped him or not.
Nice Q & A here between the Star-Telegram and Roy Williams. Here’s a taste:
Quarterback Tony Romo says he still trusts you. Do you believe he has confidence in you?
Of course if I throw to a guy in the game and he is tripping by not catching the ball I would lose confidence in him, too. He won’t say it publicly, but what quarterback wouldn’t lose trust. I’m going to try to get in good with him and be his buddy. You have to make plays in the game to get the ball and get plays drawn for you. I have to make plays.
Remember Bill Parcells’ 11 Commandments to being a successful NFL quarterback?
I - Ignore others’ opinions
II - Clowns can’t run a huddle
III - Fat QBs can’t avoid the rush
IV - Know your job cold
V - Know your own players
VI - Be the same guy every day
VII - Throwing the ball away is a good play
VIII - Learn to manage the game: clock, clock, clock
IX - Get your team in the end zone
X - Don’t panic
XI - Don’t be a celebrity quarterback
JJT reviewed how Tony Romo has progressed in each. These two stood out to me:
V Know your own players: Miles Austin had one of the best seasons in franchise history, and Jason Witten continues to be among the best tight ends in the league. Patrick Crayton was a solid contributor, and Kevin Ogletree looks like he’s ready to find a niche in the offense.
The only player Romo failed to consistently connect with is Roy Williams, who caught just 38 of 86 passes (44.1 percent) directed his way. Austin caught 81 of 124 passes (65.3 percent), and Crayton caught 37 of 67 passes (55.2 percent), so it certainly seems like the issue is more with Williams than with Romo.
VI Be the same guy every day: Romo has never been a moody guy. Or a player who pouts when he has a bad game. He’s already figured out not to get too high or too low after a game.
If Romo is a celebrity quarterback, then he uses his “celebrity” well, as portrayed here in this story about #9 connecting with one of his young fans.
Tony, who was having lunch with his father and some friends, invited Robbie and Jim to sit down and join them while they had lunch. For the next 30 minutes, Tony and Robbie talked football and golf, with Robbie offering Tony a few football tips and recounting some Cowboys history.
“He tells Robbie that the Cowboys are going to have a better year next year,” Jim said, “And Rob jumps up and shows him how you throw the ball. Tony is a very young man, but he’s a super human being because he took time with Robbie. He is a gracious gentleman. They were finishing up and he told Rob, ‘I’ve got to have another hug.’ He got up and gave him another hug and then Tony asked him to give his dad a hug, too. So he had hugs all around. It’s really hard to imagine how it could have been any better, particularly from our side. It was a once-in-a-lifetime deal.”
The DMN is running a poll where you can Vote for the best Dallas Cowboys draft pick of all-time. Currently, Troy Aikman is matched up against Harvey Martin.
Once Texas Stadium is imploded on April 11, what will the city of Irving do to fill that void?
Texas Stadium, built for the Dallas Cowboys in 1971, “was what people saw as the main entryway to Irving,” said Maura Gast, executive director of the convention and visitors bureau in Irving, which has a population of 201,000.
“We’re literally changing the face, the front entry, of the city.”
Exactly how remains to be seen. It is likely redevelopment of the site won’t begin for another one to two years, until the Texas Department of Transportation completes an overhaul of the highway intersection. And a new public rail line to the site won’t be completed until the end of 2011.
DC.com profiles Martellus Bennett.
DeMarcus Ware sits down with Dia Wall on The Blitz and discusses what the emergence of Anthony…
March 31, 2010
DeMarcus Ware sits down with Dia Wall on The Blitz and discusses what the emergence of Anthony Spencer does for the defense, as well as the potential of Victor Butler and Brandon Williams.
Can We Tease Out the Mystery Team Trying to Grab the Raiders’ #8 Pick?
March 31, 2010
Paul Sakuma - AP
A mystery team has made Dom Raider an offer he can’t refuse — maybe. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)
A very intriguing and somewhat confusing story from the San Francisco Chronicle this evening. The paper’s Raiders Blog reports:
An unnamed team has offered the Raiders a second-round pick this year and a first-round pick next year in exchange for the Raiders’ No. 8 overall pick. (Well, the team has a name, but our league source wouldn’t share).
Let’s take an old Cowboys trade as an illustration. In ‘04 Dallas had the 22nd overall pick, worth 780 points on the charts. (See one here) The Buffalo Bills wanted to move up from the 43rd pick and draft QB J.P. Losman. The Bills pick is worth 470 points. The difference is 310 points, or a late 2nd rounder, the 59th overall. Dallas took the difference between the 59th 310 and the lowest 2nd round pick (270) and asked Buffalo to give a pick worth roughly 40 points that year, in addition to their 2nd rounder.
Buffalo surrendered its ‘04 5th rounder, (34 points) the ‘05 1st, and the deal was done. Dallas didn’t know where the pick could have wound up but valued it as a late 2nd +1 round.
Which gets us back to Oakland today and that mystery team, which I am convinced is lurking in Dallas’ neighborhood. Lets do some more draft value math:
Oakland 8th overall = 1400 points.
Now, lets’ use Dallas as the hypothetical mystery team. Their 1st is worth 680 points. Their 2nd is worth 310 points. That’s 990 points, leaving a difference of 410 points. That’s the value of a mid 2nd, the 49th overall in fact. Dallas, of course, has only one 2nd rounder and can’t flip two this year, as a team like New England could. They could, however, flip their 2011 1st and perhaps satisfy the Raiders.
The Raiders would leave the Raiders with the 27th pick, their 2nd rounder, the 39th overall and Dallas’ pick at 59. Oakland could then flip the 39 to the Eagles and come away with Donovan McNabb, meeting Philly’s demand of a pick in the top 42 for the veteran. Oakland would still retain a 1st and a 2nd rounder this draft, not to mention an extra 1st next year.
I want to reiterate this is merely conjecture on my point. I have heard nothing to suggest that Dallas is contemplating a move like this. I simply used them to test the numbers and to point out that the Chronicle’s reported offer only makes sense to Oakland if it involves a late ‘10 1st in addition to the ‘10 2nd and ‘11 1st.
In fact, the numbers suggest that the mystery team may be a little higher in the pecking order than the Cowboys, somebody closer to 20.
On the other hand, Jerry Jones has made many trades with Al Davis in the past. Jerry is feeling the need to make a Super Bowl push. But if he’s the crazy man willing to pitch a deal like this to Crazy Al, who is he after? Would you attempt a deal like this to get a Bryan Bulaga and short up Tony Romo’s blind side? Is this what the Dez Bryant due diligence is all about?
Or is this a team like San Diego making a push for a back like C.J. Spiller, who could keep their Super Bowl hopes on track?
It’s all in Al Davis’ hands, which could mean anything, or nothing at all.
Can We Tease Out the Mystery Team Trying to Grab the Raiders’ #8 Pick?
March 31, 2010
Paul Sakuma - AP
A mystery team has made Dom Raider an offer he can’t refuse — maybe. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)
A very intriguing and somewhat confusing story from the San Francisco Chronicle this evening. The paper’s Raiders Blog reports:
An unnamed team has offered the Raiders a second-round pick this year and a first-round pick next year in exchange for the Raiders’ No. 8 overall pick. (Well, the team has a name, but our league source wouldn’t share).
Let’s take an old Cowboys trade as an illustration. In ‘04 Dallas had the 22nd overall pick, worth 780 points on the charts. (See one here) The Buffalo Bills wanted to move up from the 43rd pick and draft QB J.P. Losman. The Bills pick is worth 470 points. The difference is 310 points, or a late 2nd rounder, the 59th overall. Dallas took the difference between the 59th 310 and the lowest 2nd round pick (270) and asked Buffalo to give a pick worth roughly 40 points that year, in addition to their 2nd rounder.
Buffalo surrendered its ‘04 5th rounder, (34 points) the ‘05 1st, and the deal was done. Dallas didn’t know where the pick could have wound up but valued it as a late 2nd +1 round.
Which gets us back to Oakland today and that mystery team, which I am convinced is lurking in Dallas’ neighborhood. Lets do some more draft value math:
Oakland 8th overall = 1400 points.
Now, lets’ use Dallas as the hypothetical mystery team. Their 1st is worth 680 points. Their 2nd is worth 310 points. That’s 990 points, leaving a difference of 410 points. That’s the value of a mid 2nd, the 49th overall in fact. Dallas, of course, has only one 2nd rounder and can’t flip two this year, as a team like New England could. They could, however, flip their 2011 1st and perhaps satisfy the Raiders.
The Raiders would leave the Raiders with the 27th pick, their 2nd rounder, the 39th overall and Dallas’ pick at 59. Oakland could then flip the 39 to the Eagles and come away with Donovan McNabb, meeting Philly’s demand of a pick in the top 42 for the veteran. Oakland would still retain a 1st and a 2nd rounder this draft, not to mention an extra 1st next year.
I want to reiterate this is merely conjecture on my point. I have heard nothing to suggest that Dallas is contemplating a move like this. I simply used them to test the numbers and to point out that the Chronicle’s reported offer only makes sense to Oakland if it involves a late ‘10 1st in addition to the ‘10 2nd and ‘11 1st.
In fact, the numbers suggest that the mystery team may be a little higher in the pecking order than the Cowboys, somebody closer to 20.
On the other hand, Jerry Jones has made many trades with Al Davis in the past. Jerry is feeling the need to make a Super Bowl push. But if he’s the crazy man willing to pitch a deal like this to Crazy Al, who is he after? Would you attempt a deal like this to get a Bryan Bulaga and short up Tony Romo’s blind side? Is this what the Dez Bryant due diligence is all about?
Or is this a team like San Diego making a push for a back like C.J. Spiller, who could keep their Super Bowl hopes on track?
It’s all in Al Davis’ hands, which could mean anything, or nothing at all.
Cowboys Draft ‘10, Part 21: the Ball Pivot
March 30, 2010
Eric Gay - AP
Alan Ball lets Dallas choose either corner or safety with their early secondary pick. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Look at the list of Cowboys invitees which began to emerge yesterday and you’ll notice a trend. The usual suspect safeties are there, but so are an abundance of cornerbacks. This year’s draft lacks truly high-end corners, in the Deion Sanders, Charles Woodson mold (Joe Haden might not make the top ten, whereas guys like those were top-5 picks). The class nonetheless shows depth. A source told me the Cowboys think the position will certainly offer quality at the 1st/2nd round turn, depending on which player(s) remain. It’s therefore possible that corner could be the first pick, though it’s not the position most Cowboys fans would choose first.
We’ve discussed the reasons for replenishing corner before. The NFL continues to privilege passing over running, with the spread attacks so prevalent in the college game seeping more and more into pro playbooks. Three quality corners is the minimum for a team which wants to compete. With the inconsistency and injuries at the position, four corners is a luxury all teams desire, but which few, if any, can claim.
Dallas has three solid corners in Terence Newman, Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick, but understands that Newman is past 30 and the clock could be winding down on his days as a top man-to-man cover corner. If he were to decline, the lack of depth could hurt the Cowboys playoff designs.
The key to the Dallas’ secondary plans may be reserve defensive back Alan Ball. The 7th-round pick currently occupies two key secondary spots. He’s the 4th corner behind Scandrick and doubles as Ken Hamlin’s backup at free safety. The team has expressed some interest in letting Ball battle Hamlin for the starting spot, but Ball seems stuck in between; playing inside and outside is retarding his ability to master one of them.
With Dallas having needs on the offensive line, inside linebacker, receiver and nose tackle, it seems unlikely that it would pick a safety and a corner in the early rounds. I think Ball’s flexibility means the team does not have to force a safety pick. If the best option in the 1st or 2nd is a corner, the Cowboys will take him and make Ball a safety full time. If one of the better frees is there, a Nate Allen or Morgan Burnett in the 2nd, say, the Cowboys will pick him and keep Ball on the outside.
If the board breaks corner, what will the Cowboys’ want? They like big, athletic corners. The Cowboys like their corners to excel in man-to-man and zone coverage, but Wade Phillips is all pressuring the quarterback. He’ll blitz as much as his secondary lets him.
When you look at corner prospects, look for these qualities:
- Can the player excel in man coverage? Does he have the speed and quick-reaction skills to mirror quality receivers?
- Can he be physical? Good press coverage requires that corners jam their man at the LOS.
- Does he possess a short memory? All corners, even the best ones, get beaten from time to time. Does the prospect linger on his miscues, and invite more big plays, or does he shake them off and make the remainder of the game hard for his opponents?
- Can he tackle effectively? Poor tackling corners will give as much yards ole-ing a toss play as they will on a deep out. Whiffing on a catch downfield is the difference between a big play and a big score.
- Can he play special teams, as a returner or in coverage? Corners and linebackers form the backbone of special teams and any prospect has to offer value here in addition to plays from scrimmage.
Dallas wants size. They don’t need huge corners, but you won’t see them take guys under 5′10″ unless those mighty mites possess exceptional speed. The Cowboys starters are not the tallest guys (Newman is 5′11″ and Jenkins and Scandrick both 5′10″ but they’re not shrimps either. Short corners who lack warp speed become targets, and Dallas tends to steer clear of guys like this.
All of the Dallas corners of interest, the Wilsons, the Ghees, the Owusu-Ansahs, fits these profiles. This means Dallas should have maximum flexibility on draft weekend. Barring a trade down which brings an extra pick or two, they’ll go corner OR safety. Which one? We won’t know until the Cowboys come on the clock.
Cowboys Draft ‘10, Part 21: the Ball Pivot
March 30, 2010
Eric Gay - AP
Alan Ball lets Dallas choose either corner or safety with their early secondary pick. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Look at the list of Cowboys invitees which began to emerge yesterday and you’ll notice a trend. The usual suspect safeties are there, but so are an abundance of cornerbacks. This year’s draft lacks truly high-end corners, in the Deion Sanders, Charles Woodson mold (Joe Haden might not make the top ten, whereas guys like those were top-5 picks). The class nonetheless shows depth. A source told me the Cowboys think the position will certainly offer quality at the 1st/2nd round turn, depending on which player(s) remain. It’s therefore possible that corner could be the first pick, though it’s not the position most Cowboys fans would choose first.
We’ve discussed the reasons for replenishing corner before. The NFL continues to privilege passing over running, with the spread attacks so prevalent in the college game seeping more and more into pro playbooks. Three quality corners is the minimum for a team which wants to compete. With the inconsistency and injuries at the position, four corners is a luxury all teams desire, but which few, if any, can claim.
Dallas has three solid corners in Terence Newman, Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick, but understands that Newman is past 30 and the clock could be winding down on his days as a top man-to-man cover corner. If he were to decline, the lack of depth could hurt the Cowboys playoff designs.
The key to the Dallas’ secondary plans may be reserve defensive back Alan Ball. The 7th-round pick currently occupies two key secondary spots. He’s the 4th corner behind Scandrick and doubles as Ken Hamlin’s backup at free safety. The team has expressed some interest in letting Ball battle Hamlin for the starting spot, but Ball seems stuck in between; playing inside and outside is retarding his ability to master one of them.
With Dallas having needs on the offensive line, inside linebacker, receiver and nose tackle, it seems unlikely that it would pick a safety and a corner in the early rounds. I think Ball’s flexibility means the team does not have to force a safety pick. If the best option in the 1st or 2nd is a corner, the Cowboys will take him and make Ball a safety full time. If one of the better frees is there, a Nate Allen or Morgan Burnett in the 2nd, say, the Cowboys will pick him and keep Ball on the outside.
If the board breaks corner, what will the Cowboys’ want? They like big, athletic corners. The Cowboys like their corners to excel in man-to-man and zone coverage, but Wade Phillips is all pressuring the quarterback. He’ll blitz as much as his secondary lets him.
When you look at corner prospects, look for these qualities:
- Can the player excel in man coverage? Does he have the speed and quick-reaction skills to mirror quality receivers?
- Can he be physical? Good press coverage requires that corners jam their man at the LOS.
- Does he possess a short memory? All corners, even the best ones, get beaten from time to time. Does the prospect linger on his miscues, and invite more big plays, or does he shake them off and make the remainder of the game hard for his opponents?
- Can he tackle effectively? Poor tackling corners will give as much yards ole-ing a toss play as they will on a deep out. Whiffing on a catch downfield is the difference between a big play and a big score.
- Can he play special teams, as a returner or in coverage? Corners and linebackers form the backbone of special teams and any prospect has to offer value here in addition to plays from scrimmage.
Dallas wants size. They don’t need huge corners, but you won’t see them take guys under 5′10″ unless those mighty mites possess exceptional speed. The Cowboys starters are not the tallest guys (Newman is 5′11″ and Jenkins and Scandrick both 5′10″ but they’re not shrimps either. Short corners who lack warp speed become targets, and Dallas tends to steer clear of guys like this.
All of the Dallas corners of interest, the Wilsons, the Ghees, the Owusu-Ansahs, fits these profiles. This means Dallas should have maximum flexibility on draft weekend. Barring a trade down which brings an extra pick or two, they’ll go corner OR safety. Which one? We won’t know until the Cowboys come on the clock.
Inside the Numbers: The Ferociousness of DeMarcus Ware
March 30, 2010
Jim Dietz - AP
Dallas Cowboys’ DeMarcus Ware showing off his ferocity by forcing Saints quarterback Drew Brees to fumble under pressure.
“ |
I never play timid, or non-aggressive. If I’m going to be out there I’m going to give 110 percent“ | ||
| — DeMarcus Ware |
There is no question that DeMarcus Ware is one of the best, if not the best, pass rusher in the NFL today.
His 20 sacks in 2008 rank sixth on the all time single season record list (the NFL did not recognize sacks as a statistic until 1982).
With his eleven sacks last year, Ware now has an active streak of four consecutive seasons with 10+ sacks, best among all active NFL players. Jared Allen is next with an active streak of three successive seasons above ten sacks, and only four more players (James Harrison, Dwight Freeney, LaMarr Woodley and Julius Peppers) have an active streak of two consecutive season.
So if you’re DeMarcus Ware, what kind of targets do you set for yourself? According to Todd Archer, Ware’s self declared target is nothing less than to set the NFL record for consecutive seasons with 10 or more sacks. The current record is nine consecutive seasons with 10+ sacks, and is held by Reggie White (13-time Pro Bowler and 8-time first team All Pro) who set the mark between 1985-1993 with the Eagles and the Packers.
The impact of sacks
The ability to generate and prevent sacks is a key factor in determining games in the NFL. In 256 games last year, NFL record keepers recorded 1,101 sacks. I recently looked at sack differential (sacks recorded minus sacks allowed) for all of those 256 games and found that the team that allowed more sacks lost 74% of the time. Knocking the other guy down and keeping your guy standing is highly correlated to success. The table below shows the effect of allowing more sacks than your opponent:
| Losing probability by sack differential | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sack | 2 Sacks | 3 Sacks | 4 Sacks | |
| Losing %-age | 70% | 67% | 87% | 80% |
| Losing record | 55-79 | 37-55 | 34-39 | 23-29 |
Are all sacks created equal?
“From both [the offensive and defensive] standpoints, the sack is a difference-maker,” said Baltimore linebacker Terrell Suggs, who has averaged 8.2 sacks per season in his seven-year career and has five sacks in the Ravens‘ past four postseason contests. “For a defense, the sack generates a lot of excitement and momentum, almost like a dunk in basketball. For the offense, it can be deflating on the field, and psychologically, too.” - ESPN
In the table below, you have a ranking of the top ten players by sacks recorded last year. Are there sacks in that list that were more ‘deflating on the field’ than others? Should the fact that three of Julius Peppers’ 10.5 sacks resulted in zero loss of yards be held against him, or should Jared Allen’s stats be boosted somehow by the fact that five of his sacks produced a fumble?
| NFL Sack Leaders 2009 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | Team | Sacks | Sacks resulting in fumbles |
Sacks resulting in Turnovers |
| 1 | Elvis Dumerville | DEN | 17 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Jared Allen | MIN | 14.5 | 5 | 3 |
| T3 | Dwight Freeney | IND | 13.5 | 1 | 0 |
| T3 | LaMarr Woodley | PIT | 13.5 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Will Smith | NO | 13 | 4 | 2 |
| 6 | Trent Cole | PHI | 12.5 | 1 | 1 |
| T7 | DeMarcus Ware | DAL | 11 | 5 | 4 |
| T7 | Andre Carter | WAS | 11 | 4 | 3 |
| T7 | Brian Orakpo | WAS | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | Julius Peppers | CAR | 10.5 | 3 | 2 |
I’ve added sacks that resulted in fumbles and sacks that resulted in turnovers to the list in the hopes of providing a better gauge of how much impact those sacks had for the teams. But is there a better way to measure the impact of these sacks? Sure there is.
Today, we turn the all seeing eye of Expected Points Value (EPV) on the NFL’s top ten pass rushers to find out.
Expected Points Value and sacks
EPV is the average points a team can expect from any given down and distance situation. If you’re unfamiliar with the concept of EPV, read up on it in this post.
EPV can be applied to sacks just as it can be applied to any other part of the game. This is how it works, using Ware’s first sack of last season as an example:
2-10-KC 38 (14:14) M.Cassel sacked at KC 28 for -10 yards (D.Ware).
The starting EPV for the Chiefs on second-and-ten on their own 38 yard line is 0.81. The 10 yard sack resulted in a third-and-twenty on the Chiefs 28 yard line with an EPV of -0.57. The play therefore set the Chiefs back by -1.38 EPV. Ware is therefore credited with an EPV of +1.38 for this play.
The table below shows the EPV of the top ten leaders in sacks. To calculate this, I have made the following assumptions: A) Where a sack resulted in a turnover (fumble recovered or turnover on downs) the turnover is fully credited to the player who recorded the sack. B) Where two players are credited with a sack, each player gets half the EPV generated by the play. C) Will Smith and Trent Cole are credited with the full 6.3 EPV for the touchdowns that came as the direct result of a fumble recovery from their sacks.
| NFL Sack Leaders by EPV, 2009 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | Team | EPV/Sack | Total Sacks | Total EPV |
| 1 | DeMarcus Ware | DAL | 2.00 | 11 | 22.1 |
| T2 | Jared Allen | MIN | 1.70 | 14.5 | 24.7 |
| T2 | Andre Carter | WAS | 1.70 | 11 | 18.7 |
| 4 | Trent Cole | PHI | 1.62 | 12.5 | 21.1 |
| 5 | Julius Peppers | CAR | 1.56 | 10.5 | 16.4 |
| 6 | Brian Orakpo | WAS | 1.49 | 11 | 16.4 |
| T7 | Dwight Freeney | IND | 1.39 | 13.5 | 18.8 |
| T7 | Will Smith | NO | 1.39 | 13 | 18.1 |
| 9 | Elvis Dumerville | DEN | 1.39 | 17 | 23.6 |
| 10 | Lamarr Woodley | PIT | 1.17 | 13.5 | 15.8 |
On a per sack basis, DeMarcus Ware has generated the most value for his team among the 10 elite pass rushers listed in this table. In my book, that gets him the title of most ferocious pass rusher. Four forced fumbles resulting in turnovers, in addition to his other sacks, push him to the top of the heap in terms of EPV/sack.
Now he just needs to keep it up for six more seasons.
Inside the Numbers: The Ferociousness of DeMarcus Ware
March 30, 2010
Jim Dietz - AP
Dallas Cowboys’ DeMarcus Ware showing off his ferocity by forcing Saints quarterback Drew Brees to fumble under pressure.
“ |
I never play timid, or non-aggressive. If I’m going to be out there I’m going to give 110 percent“ | ||
| — DeMarcus Ware |
There is no question that DeMarcus Ware is one of the best, if not the best, pass rusher in the NFL today.
His 20 sacks in 2008 rank sixth on the all time single season record list (the NFL did not recognize sacks as a statistic until 1982).
With his eleven sacks last year, Ware now has an active streak of four consecutive seasons with 10+ sacks, best among all active NFL players. Jared Allen is next with an active streak of three successive seasons above ten sacks, and only four more players (James Harrison, Dwight Freeney, LaMarr Woodley and Julius Peppers) have an active streak of two consecutive season.
So if you’re DeMarcus Ware, what kind of targets do you set for yourself? According to Todd Archer, Ware’s self declared target is nothing less than to set the NFL record for consecutive seasons with 10 or more sacks. The current record is nine consecutive seasons with 10+ sacks, and is held by Reggie White (13-time Pro Bowler and 8-time first team All Pro) who set the mark between 1985-1993 with the Eagles and the Packers.
The impact of sacks
The ability to generate and prevent sacks is a key factor in determining games in the NFL. In 256 games last year, NFL record keepers recorded 1,101 sacks. I recently looked at sack differential (sacks recorded minus sacks allowed) for all of those 256 games and found that the team that allowed more sacks lost 74% of the time. Knocking the other guy down and keeping your guy standing is highly correlated to success. The table below shows the effect of allowing more sacks than your opponent:
| Losing probability by sack differential | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sack | 2 Sacks | 3 Sacks | 4 Sacks | |
| Losing %-age | 70% | 67% | 87% | 80% |
| Losing record | 55-79 | 37-55 | 34-39 | 23-29 |
Are all sacks created equal?
“From both [the offensive and defensive] standpoints, the sack is a difference-maker,” said Baltimore linebacker Terrell Suggs, who has averaged 8.2 sacks per season in his seven-year career and has five sacks in the Ravens‘ past four postseason contests. “For a defense, the sack generates a lot of excitement and momentum, almost like a dunk in basketball. For the offense, it can be deflating on the field, and psychologically, too.” - ESPN
In the table below, you have a ranking of the top ten players by sacks recorded last year. Are there sacks in that list that were more ‘deflating on the field’ than others? Should the fact that three of Julius Peppers’ 10.5 sacks resulted in zero loss of yards be held against him, or should Jared Allen’s stats be boosted somehow by the fact that five of his sacks produced a fumble?
| NFL Sack Leaders 2009 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | Team | Sacks | Sacks resulting in fumbles |
Sacks resulting in Turnovers |
| 1 | Elvis Dumerville | DEN | 17 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Jared Allen | MIN | 14.5 | 5 | 3 |
| T3 | Dwight Freeney | IND | 13.5 | 1 | 0 |
| T3 | LaMarr Woodley | PIT | 13.5 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Will Smith | NO | 13 | 4 | 2 |
| 6 | Trent Cole | PHI | 12.5 | 1 | 1 |
| T7 | DeMarcus Ware | DAL | 11 | 5 | 4 |
| T7 | Andre Carter | WAS | 11 | 4 | 3 |
| T7 | Brian Orakpo | WAS | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | Julius Peppers | CAR | 10.5 | 3 | 2 |
I’ve added sacks that resulted in fumbles and sacks that resulted in turnovers to the list in the hopes of providing a better gauge of how much impact those sacks had for the teams. But is there a better way to measure the impact of these sacks? Sure there is.
Today, we turn the all seeing eye of Expected Points Value (EPV) on the NFL’s top ten pass rushers to find out.
Expected Points Value and sacks
EPV is the average points a team can expect from any given down and distance situation. If you’re unfamiliar with the concept of EPV, read up on it in this post.
EPV can be applied to sacks just as it can be applied to any other part of the game. This is how it works, using Ware’s first sack of last season as an example:
2-10-KC 38 (14:14) M.Cassel sacked at KC 28 for -10 yards (D.Ware).
The starting EPV for the Chiefs on second-and-ten on their own 38 yard line is 0.81. The 10 yard sack resulted in a third-and-twenty on the Chiefs 28 yard line with an EPV of -0.57. The play therefore set the Chiefs back by -1.38 EPV. Ware is therefore credited with an EPV of +1.38 for this play.
The table below shows the EPV of the top ten leaders in sacks. To calculate this, I have made the following assumptions: A) Where a sack resulted in a turnover (fumble recovered or turnover on downs) the turnover is fully credited to the player who recorded the sack. B) Where two players are credited with a sack, each player gets half the EPV generated by the play. C) Will Smith and Trent Cole are credited with the full 6.3 EPV for the touchdowns that came as the direct result of a fumble recovery from their sacks.
| NFL Sack Leaders by EPV, 2009 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | Team | EPV/Sack | Total Sacks | Total EPV |
| 1 | DeMarcus Ware | DAL | 2.00 | 11 | 22.1 |
| T2 | Jared Allen | MIN | 1.70 | 14.5 | 24.7 |
| T2 | Andre Carter | WAS | 1.70 | 11 | 18.7 |
| 4 | Trent Cole | PHI | 1.62 | 12.5 | 21.1 |
| 5 | Julius Peppers | CAR | 1.56 | 10.5 | 16.4 |
| 6 | Brian Orakpo | WAS | 1.49 | 11 | 16.4 |
| T7 | Dwight Freeney | IND | 1.39 | 13.5 | 18.8 |
| T7 | Will Smith | NO | 1.39 | 13 | 18.1 |
| 9 | Elvis Dumerville | DEN | 1.39 | 17 | 23.6 |
| 10 | Lamarr Woodley | PIT | 1.17 | 13.5 | 15.8 |
On a per sack basis, DeMarcus Ware has generated the most value for his team among the 10 elite pass rushers listed in this table. In my book, that gets him the title of most ferocious pass rusher. Four forced fumbles resulting in turnovers, in addition to his other sacks, push him to the top of the heap in terms of EPV/sack.
Now he just needs to keep it up for six more seasons.
Cowboys’ Draft ‘10: Your Breakfast Scenarios & A Training Camp Plea
March 30, 2010
Donna McWilliam - AP
If this man and Dez Bryant are both on the board, who would you choose? (AP Photo/Donna McWilliam)
We play the scenario game and this morning I’m going to give you two difficult choices. Leave your responses in the thread.
I. Dave and I took our turn last night at a mock which you might call the nightmare scenario. All the top 5 OTs — gone. Mike Iuputi and Maurkice Pouncey? Gone. The 1st tier FS, Berry, Thomas and Mays? Gone. Joe Haden and Kyle WIlson, the top two CBs? Gone. Dez Bryant — gone. Jared Odrick, Dan Williams and Bryan Price? Gone too.
This was a mock where every 1st round graded guy was certainly gone. Who would you take in this circumstance? We’ll reveal our pick when the mock is completed.
II. Pat Kirwan’s latest mock presents a difficult choice of another type. In his scenario, Dez Bryant and Earl Thomas are both on the board at pick 27. Kirwan picks Thomas for the Cowboys. Would you do the same? I’m torn. I think Thomas hits the spot, but I also think Bryant would be an incredible value. I’m waffling on this choice. To be honest, I’m leaning towards the receiver, though he’s probably a bigger risk. I think he’s also got the bigger upside.
One rock solid pick you can make is a contribution to BTB’s Training Camp Fund. We’re off to a good start but need your help to ensure beginning-to-end coverage. The Cowboys will cover America this summer, starting in Texas, invading Ohio to play on Emmitt Smith’s induction weekend and then moving on to the West Coast. We plan to follow them, and you can help.
Cowboys Draft ‘10: Build Your Preliminary Board
March 29, 2010
Brody Schmidt - AP
He may be beyond Dallas’ reach, but the Cowboys will kick Dez Bryant’s tires nonetheless. (AP Photo/Brody Schmidt, File)
The names of Cowboys pre-draft invitees is trickling out, with Todd Archer serving up ten of the 30 each team is allowed in this piece.
Here we have clear evidence of teams hiding prospects in plain sight. Not all of the players who show up are serious prospects, though most are. I’d say, based on past experience, that 80% to 90% of these guys are real players of interest.
Conversely, this list is not comprehensive. The Cowboys may love a handful of players who won’t be invited. They’re drafted guys in the first round who did not attend their meet-and-greets. Note, for instance, that not a single offensive tackle is on the invitees list, at least not on this partial one. We know Dallas will work out Vlad Ducasse, and I fully expect to see more OTs in the coming days.
Here, however, is the clearest chance to build a preliminary board, no matter how meager it may be. The ten names here are spread out through the early rounds. Let’s slot them:
| 1st Round | 2nd Round | 3rd Round | 4th Round & Later Rounds |
|
– Dez Bryant, WR,Ok. St. - Mike Iuputi, G, Idaho - Jared Odrick, DE, Penn St. |
– Morgan Burnett, FS, Georgia Tech – Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU |
– Brandon Ghee, CB Wake Forest – Novarro Bowman, LB, Penn St. |
– Sean Lee, ILB, Penn St. – Taylor Price, WR, Ohio – John Conner, FB, Kentucky
|
Positions are relative, especially after we leave the 1st. I think it’s safe to say Bryant, Iuputi and Odrick have 1st round grades. What about Burnett? High 2nd, or low? A candidate if Dallas trades down from 27 or one for 59? Ditto for LaFell.
With Dallas picking so low in the 2nd, are Ghee and Bowman solid 3rd round grades or guys Dallas considers at 59? Is Price a guy who sneaks into the 3rd round thinking? And so on, and so on.
Update. Here’s more on Price’s visit.
The Cowboys’ Top Pick: Offense or Defense?
March 29, 2010
Kevin Rivoli - AP
What a bold pick this guy would be for the Cowboys in the first round. Could they go defense again?
Between David LaFleur (1997) and Felix Jones (2008) every first-round pick selected by the Cowboys has been a defensive player. Ekuban, Ellis, Roy Williams, T-New, Spears, Ware, Carpenter, Spencer, and then they followed the Felix Jones pick with Mike Jenkins.
Such a run has got to make you wonder if the Cowboys will again go defense in this draft’s first round.
What if?
First, Thanks to all for your vote in yesterday’s poll: The Dallas Cowboys are on the Mock Clock. What if the draft dominoes did end up falling similar to that mock? The Cowboys could conceivably have their choice between a top OT in Anthony Davis and the draft’s best center in Maurkice Pouncey. Everybody knows the team needs to get younger on the offensive line. It would just make too much sense to draft either of those guys.
Left Tackle
But what if the Cowboys plan on bringing Flozell Adams back for another season and project Doug Free as the sole backup/heir apparent at LT? Anthony Davis would essentially be red-shirted unless he could compete on the right side. Taking a year to learn the nuances of the pro game may not be a bad thing for him, especially if you are one to worry about his question marks.
He arrived at Rutgers at 368 pounds as a freshman, and had to lose nearly 40 pounds to earn a starting job then.
As a sophomore in 2008, he was suspended from the Morgan State game for violating team policy, and this summer he was demoted to second team for six days in preseason camp for being overweight.
“It’s minor stuff,” he said. “I have no weight issue. I’ll be ready to explain all the questions they have about me missing the Morgan State game last year.”
Guard/Right Tackle
If the Cowboys choose to stick with what they’ve got at LT for one more year, this could then push their top O-line need to guard, and then RT. Robert Brewster could backup either position, but is he starting material - enough to push Kyle Kosier, or enough to supplant Doug Free at RT if Marc Colombo went down again?
In this mock, Mike Iupati was long gone (#11 to the Denver blog) before Dallas’ pick. For now, let’s scratch his name off the list and suppose the Cowboys are looking at guys like Vladimir Ducasse and John Jerry as second round targets. Both of those guys could easily compete with Brewster and inspire the team to move on from Pat McQuistan.
They could even further stabilize the guard and RT depth later in the draft by nabbing a guy like TCU’s Marshall Newhouse, who even has experience at LT. Also, the team will be bringing in Newhouse’s teammate, RT Nic Richmond, for a “Dallas Day” visit. Richmond is expected to be a late round consideration, which suggests that the Cowboys are willing to go with a developmental prospect on the O-line.
The 6’8″, 322-pounder from Garland, Tex. was a three-year starter for the Horned Frogs and is currently the NFP’s 26th ranked offensive tackle prospect. Richmond was an integral part of last year’s 12-1 TCU team that earned a trip to the Fiesta Bowl.
Center/Guard
Finally, I must address Florida C Maurkice Pouncey. In the poll, he’s not too far behind Anthony Davis in BTB votes. It’s interesting to see that a good number of fans would pass up on a quality LT to draft what essentially would be a backup center on the Cowboys. Now, Pouncey could compete at guard. And he is considered to be the best center prospect, which suggests solid value at #27.
I know many of you are ready to run Cory Procter out of town, but he signed his tender and will at least be in training camp. Andre Gurode is a perennial Pro Bowler and arguably the best center in the conference. For Pouncey to play, Gurode would have to miss time unless they rotated him in for shotgun snaps (I kid!). At guard - presumably the left side - he would compete with Kosier and Brewster.
Argument Against Drafting an O-lineman in the First
The Cowboys feel as if Free can provide quality depth at either tackle position. If they do not plan on cutting Flo in June, then maybe they address the LT position next year after seeing how well Free progresses.
If the Cowboys see good value in Gs and RTs beginning in the 2nd round, then what do they do with that #27? Although taking O-linemen in both the 1st and 2nd would give them talented depth up front, it’s hard to see them doing that. Of all the positions in football, the offensive line’s are some of the least likely to be rotated; there’s a solid chance that the rookies won’t see much playing time. That’s not what the Cowboys’ War Room would want from their two top picks, is it?
Argument For Drafting a Defensive Playmaker in the First
In Sunday’s poll, I figured the offensive linemen would garner most of the votes, especially with Davis falling and Pouncey right there. But I submitted my pick before posting that poll and went a different direction. With the 27th pick in the 2010 Draft I had the Cowboys selecting SFU’s DE Jason Pierre-Paul, .
Before flinging your tomatoes, hear me out. Of the players listed in the poll (I used CBS’ Top 50 List), I narrowed the available players down to four: Davis, Pouncey, Pierre-Paul, and Jared Odrick.
Because of the reasons listed above along with the Cowboys’ tendency to go defensive in first rounds, I trimmed it down to Pierre-Paul and Odrick. Now, I really like Odrick and would be ecstatic if the Cowboys took him, but there is a possibility that Marcus Spears, Stephen Bowen, and Jason Hatcher will all sign their tenders to remain with the team. As of now, Odrick would be entering a team stacked with DEs, especially if Marcus Dixon develops and Igor Olshansky continues to man the running downs.
That left me with Pierre-Paul.
What if?
What if the Cowboys drafted another college DE to move to OLB? It could certainly be frustrating to many fans. They already have starters set in DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer. And they snagged a couple of these DE/OLB tweeners with their 4th-round picks last year in Victor Butler and Brandon Williams. We saw some flashes of playmaking ability out of Butler early on, but he wasn’t much of a factor late in the season. Williams showed promise before tearing his ACL in the preseason game against the Titans.
Steve Octavien seems like a decent special teams player, but a bit smallish at 6′0″/245 to hold up as a solid backup OLB candidate. Curtis Johnson, listed at 6′3″/237, never saw any action to warrant nicknaming him CuJo. Butler (6′2″/246) and Williams (6′3″/248) are solid in size, but Spencer (6′3″/256) and Ware (6′4″/262) offer even more bulk to the front seven.
At the Combine, Pierre-Paul measured 6′5″/270.
If All You Have is Potential, Then That’s All You Have
Having just spent one season with South Florida and two in junior college, Pierre-Paul is a raw talent. Any team drafting him would be drafting him for potential. But he does have a ton of potential. He is a very athletic pass-rusher with a good burst off the line to complement his large frame.
Last season with the Bulls, Pierre-Paul registered 45 tackles with 16.5 for losses along with 6.5 sacks. That’s quite a productive year for a guy who only started seven games.
Again, if the Cowboys are looking to beef up their offensive line in rounds two through four, then why not take a chance at 27? In Wade Phillips’ defense, pass rushers are of the utmost importance. He’s a defensive-minded coach, and the Cowboys are all about drafting defense in the first round. It sounds like a great fit. Plus, Pierre-Paul can provide the team another dynamic player on passing downs. Check out his goods and bads…
The way this mock fell, there’s another playmaking position the team could consider - safety - but it was rather thin with Earl Thomas going at 12 to the Dolphins and Taylor Mays going at 17 to the 49ers. Pierre-Paul’s teammate, Nate Allen, may be too high of a reach at 27.
The team could go with Terrence Cody if they felt that a backup nose tackle was a pressing issue. Also on defense, CBs Patrick Robinson, Devin McCourty, Kareem Jackson, and Chris Cook could also be had; though, the Cowboys have enough young players at that position to go elsewhere with their first pick.
Besides, on Draft Day, the chips should fall for the Cowboys to be able to grab value at 27 instead of having to reach.
And Pierre-Paul Would Fit in With the Cowboys…How?
Initially, as a pass-rushing DE in sub-packages. Being so inexperienced, I would assume that Coach Phillips would bring him along slowly as an OLB. Butler and Williams will both be a step ahead of Pierre-Paul in the OLB learning curve, but his talent should get him some time on the nickel and dime.
While Anthony Spencer stayed healthy, we saw how banged-up DeMarcus Ware was over the course of the season. Ware rarely leaves the field. Much of that is because he leads the league in awesomeness, but part of that has to do with the available backups. As of now, Butler will be asked to be Ware’s primary backup. If so, much of his focus will be on making that transition to weakside OLB, while Williams will be doing the same behind Spencer. Having one more DE/OLB such as Pierre-Paul could further the development of Butler and Williams.
Remember, that both Octavien and Curtis Johnson were on the 53-man roster for much of the year. That shows that Coach Phillips will have at least five OLBs make the team. One or both of those two can be bumped. With Williams returning from injury, another spot could be up for grabs. Someone with unique pass-rushing skills would fit nicely.
The Cowboys’ Top Pick: Defense
Looking back at all the defensive names the Cowboys have drafted in the first round since ‘98, they have many more hits than misses. Ekuban did not have a stellar career in Dallas, but enjoyed a long tenure in the NFL. Carpenter’s future remains to be seen, though Phillips may have found a niche for him as a nickel ‘backer. All the other names, other than Spears - a solid starter - have each seen at least one Pro Bowl. Not bad for the Cowboys’ brass.
Barring any trades, if a top WR or OT falls to the Cowboys, they very well could go offense next month. That’s a story for another post.
For now, I’m sticking with defense at 27. Unless they earn a starting job, defensive rookies are more likely to see the field than offensive ones. Teams don’t rotate offensive linemen like they do with defensive ones. There are far more sub-packages for LBs and DBs to get in on than there would be for WRs learning Jason Garrett’s playbook. Not to mention, Jerry Jones sounds content with his young group of receivers.
Unlike 2008 when many of us saw Felix Jones and/or Mike Jenkins projected to the Cowboys, this draft has possibilities galore. Just checking out OCC’s Mocking the Cowboys Draft post, pundits have them selecting positions all along the O-line to WR, DB, and LB.
I guess it’s good that the Cowboys don’t have glaring holes entering the draft. The team could remain much the same. Still, I want a playmaker on defense. If JPP’s name is called late Thursday night on April 22, I won’t be disappointed.
The Cowboys’ Top Pick: Offense or Defense?
March 29, 2010
Kevin Rivoli - AP
What a bold pick this guy would be for the Cowboys in the first round. Could they go defense again?
Between David LaFleur (1997) and Felix Jones (2008) every first-round pick selected by the Cowboys has been a defensive player. Ekuban, Ellis, Roy Williams, T-New, Spears, Ware, Carpenter, Spencer, and then they followed the Felix Jones pick with Mike Jenkins.
Such a run has got to make you wonder if the Cowboys will again go defense in this draft’s first round.
What if?
First, Thanks to all for your vote in yesterday’s poll: The Dallas Cowboys are on the Mock Clock. What if the draft dominoes did end up falling similar to that mock? The Cowboys could conceivably have their choice between a top OT in Anthony Davis and the draft’s best center in Maurkice Pouncey. Everybody knows the team needs to get younger on the offensive line. It would just make too much sense to draft either of those guys.
Left Tackle
But what if the Cowboys plan on bringing Flozell Adams back for another season and project Doug Free as the sole backup/heir apparent at LT? Anthony Davis would essentially be red-shirted unless he could compete on the right side. Taking a year to learn the nuances of the pro game may not be a bad thing for him, especially if you are one to worry about his question marks.
He arrived at Rutgers at 368 pounds as a freshman, and had to lose nearly 40 pounds to earn a starting job then.
As a sophomore in 2008, he was suspended from the Morgan State game for violating team policy, and this summer he was demoted to second team for six days in preseason camp for being overweight.
“It’s minor stuff,” he said. “I have no weight issue. I’ll be ready to explain all the questions they have about me missing the Morgan State game last year.”
Guard/Right Tackle
If the Cowboys choose to stick with what they’ve got at LT for one more year, this could then push their top O-line need to guard, and then RT. Robert Brewster could backup either position, but is he starting material - enough to push Kyle Kosier, or enough to supplant Doug Free at RT if Marc Colombo went down again?
In this mock, Mike Iupati was long gone (#11 to the Denver blog) before Dallas’ pick. For now, let’s scratch his name off the list and suppose the Cowboys are looking at guys like Vladimir Ducasse and John Jerry as second round targets. Both of those guys could easily compete with Brewster and inspire the team to move on from Pat McQuistan.
They could even further stabilize the guard and RT depth later in the draft by nabbing a guy like TCU’s Marshall Newhouse, who even has experience at LT. Also, the team will be bringing in Newhouse’s teammate, RT Nic Richmond, for a “Dallas Day” visit. Richmond is expected to be a late round consideration, which suggests that the Cowboys are willing to go with a developmental prospect on the O-line.
The 6’8″, 322-pounder from Garland, Tex. was a three-year starter for the Horned Frogs and is currently the NFP’s 26th ranked offensive tackle prospect. Richmond was an integral part of last year’s 12-1 TCU team that earned a trip to the Fiesta Bowl.
Center/Guard
Finally, I must address Florida C Maurkice Pouncey. In the poll, he’s not too far behind Anthony Davis in BTB votes. It’s interesting to see that a good number of fans would pass up on a quality LT to draft what essentially would be a backup center on the Cowboys. Now, Pouncey could compete at guard. And he is considered to be the best center prospect, which suggests solid value at #27.
I know many of you are ready to run Cory Procter out of town, but he signed his tender and will at least be in training camp. Andre Gurode is a perennial Pro Bowler and arguably the best center in the conference. For Pouncey to play, Gurode would have to miss time unless they rotated him in for shotgun snaps (I kid!). At guard - presumably the left side - he would compete with Kosier and Brewster.
Argument Against Drafting an O-lineman in the First
The Cowboys feel as if Free can provide quality depth at either tackle position. If they do not plan on cutting Flo in June, then maybe they address the LT position next year after seeing how well Free progresses.
If the Cowboys see good value in Gs and RTs beginning in the 2nd round, then what do they do with that #27? Although taking O-linemen in both the 1st and 2nd would give them talented depth up front, it’s hard to see them doing that. Of all the positions in football, the offensive line’s are some of the least likely to be rotated; there’s a solid chance that the rookies won’t see much playing time. That’s not what the Cowboys’ War Room would want from their two top picks, is it?
Argument For Drafting a Defensive Playmaker in the First
In Sunday’s poll, I figured the offensive linemen would garner most of the votes, especially with Davis falling and Pouncey right there. But I submitted my pick before posting that poll and went a different direction. With the 27th pick in the 2010 Draft I had the Cowboys selecting SFU’s DE Jason Pierre-Paul, .
Before flinging your tomatoes, hear me out. Of the players listed in the poll (I used CBS’ Top 50 List), I narrowed the available players down to four: Davis, Pouncey, Pierre-Paul, and Jared Odrick.
Because of the reasons listed above along with the Cowboys’ tendency to go defensive in first rounds, I trimmed it down to Pierre-Paul and Odrick. Now, I really like Odrick and would be ecstatic if the Cowboys took him, but there is a possibility that Marcus Spears, Stephen Bowen, and Jason Hatcher will all sign their tenders to remain with the team. As of now, Odrick would be entering a team stacked with DEs, especially if Marcus Dixon develops and Igor Olshansky continues to man the running downs.
That left me with Pierre-Paul.
What if?
What if the Cowboys drafted another college DE to move to OLB? It could certainly be frustrating to many fans. They already have starters set in DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer. And they snagged a couple of these DE/OLB tweeners with their 4th-round picks last year in Victor Butler and Brandon Williams. We saw some flashes of playmaking ability out of Butler early on, but he wasn’t much of a factor late in the season. Williams showed promise before tearing his ACL in the preseason game against the Titans.
Steve Octavien seems like a decent special teams player, but a bit smallish at 6′0″/245 to hold up as a solid backup OLB candidate. Curtis Johnson, listed at 6′3″/237, never saw any action to warrant nicknaming him CuJo. Butler (6′2″/246) and Williams (6′3″/248) are solid in size, but Spencer (6′3″/256) and Ware (6′4″/262) offer even more bulk to the front seven.
At the Combine, Pierre-Paul measured 6′5″/270.
If All You Have is Potential, Then That’s All You Have
Having just spent one season with South Florida and two in junior college, Pierre-Paul is a raw talent. Any team drafting him would be drafting him for potential. But he does have a ton of potential. He is a very athletic pass-rusher with a good burst off the line to complement his large frame.
Last season with the Bulls, Pierre-Paul registered 45 tackles with 16.5 for losses along with 6.5 sacks. That’s quite a productive year for a guy who only started seven games.
Again, if the Cowboys are looking to beef up their offensive line in rounds two through four, then why not take a chance at 27? In Wade Phillips’ defense, pass rushers are of the utmost importance. He’s a defensive-minded coach, and the Cowboys are all about drafting defense in the first round. It sounds like a great fit. Plus, Pierre-Paul can provide the team another dynamic player on passing downs. Check out his goods and bads…
The way this mock fell, there’s another playmaking position the team could consider - safety - but it was rather thin with Earl Thomas going at 12 to the Dolphins and Taylor Mays going at 17 to the 49ers. Pierre-Paul’s teammate, Nate Allen, may be too high of a reach at 27.
The team could go with Terrence Cody if they felt that a backup nose tackle was a pressing issue. Also on defense, CBs Patrick Robinson, Devin McCourty, Kareem Jackson, and Chris Cook could also be had; though, the Cowboys have enough young players at that position to go elsewhere with their first pick.
Besides, on Draft Day, the chips should fall for the Cowboys to be able to grab value at 27 instead of having to reach.
And Pierre-Paul Would Fit in With the Cowboys…How?
Initially, as a pass-rushing DE in sub-packages. Being so inexperienced, I would assume that Coach Phillips would bring him along slowly as an OLB. Butler and Williams will both be a step ahead of Pierre-Paul in the OLB learning curve, but his talent should get him some time on the nickel and dime.
While Anthony Spencer stayed healthy, we saw how banged-up DeMarcus Ware was over the course of the season. Ware rarely leaves the field. Much of that is because he leads the league in awesomeness, but part of that has to do with the available backups. As of now, Butler will be asked to be Ware’s primary backup. If so, much of his focus will be on making that transition to weakside OLB, while Williams will be doing the same behind Spencer. Having one more DE/OLB such as Pierre-Paul could further the development of Butler and Williams.
Remember, that both Octavien and Curtis Johnson were on the 53-man roster for much of the year. That shows that Coach Phillips will have at least five OLBs make the team. One or both of those two can be bumped. With Williams returning from injury, another spot could be up for grabs. Someone with unique pass-rushing skills would fit nicely.
The Cowboys’ Top Pick: Defense
Looking back at all the defensive names the Cowboys have drafted in the first round since ‘98, they have many more hits than misses. Ekuban did not have a stellar career in Dallas, but enjoyed a long tenure in the NFL. Carpenter’s future remains to be seen, though Phillips may have found a niche for him as a nickel ‘backer. All the other names, other than Spears - a solid starter - have each seen at least one Pro Bowl. Not bad for the Cowboys’ brass.
Barring any trades, if a top WR or OT falls to the Cowboys, they very well could go offense next month. That’s a story for another post.
For now, I’m sticking with defense at 27. Unless they earn a starting job, defensive rookies are more likely to see the field than offensive ones. Teams don’t rotate offensive linemen like they do with defensive ones. There are far more sub-packages for LBs and DBs to get in on than there would be for WRs learning Jason Garrett’s playbook. Not to mention, Jerry Jones sounds content with his young group of receivers.
Unlike 2008 when many of us saw Felix Jones and/or Mike Jenkins projected to the Cowboys, this draft has possibilities galore. Just checking out OCC’s Mocking the Cowboys Draft post, pundits have them selecting positions all along the O-line to WR, DB, and LB.
I guess it’s good that the Cowboys don’t have glaring holes entering the draft. The team could remain much the same. Still, I want a playmaker on defense. If JPP’s name is called late Thursday night on April 22, I won’t be disappointed.
Entering his fourth season as head coach, the Dallas Cowboys are now Wade Phillips’ team. "In…
March 29, 2010
Entering his fourth season as head coach, the Dallas Cowboys are now Wade Phillips’ team.
“In three years, every team has changed a lot of personnel,” Phillips said. “It’s guys that are more familiar with you. It’s my team.
“It’s like the quarterback, I think, like Tony Romo. More and more everybody says it’s his team, because they’re familiar with the things he’s done … and his style and his leadership. Same thing with me.”
Sunday Poll: The Dallas Cowboys are on the Mock Clock
March 28, 2010
Jason DeCrow - AP
11 months ago:
The NFL Draft is held at Radio City Music Hall Saturday, April 25, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)
Here’s something a little different for this edition of the Sunday Poll. I mentioned in earlier posts that BTB is participating in a 1st-round mock draft among blogs on the Browns’ blog, No Logo Needed.
Each representative blog for their respective NFL team had 24 hours to make their selection. 26 picks have been made. Now, the Cowboys are on the clock.
Listed in the poll, are some of the top players still available at #27 in this mock. Before selecting which player you would choose, make the jump to see who picked whom between #1 and #26.
Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
2. Detroit Lions: The Wayne Fontes Experience
Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucs Central
Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
4. Washington Redskins: The Curly R
Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
5. Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs Report
Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
6. Seattle Seahawks: Dave Krieg’s Strike Beard
Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
7. Cleveland Browns: No Logo Needed
Eric Berry, DB, Tennessee
8. Oakland Raiders: Just Blog Baby
Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
9. Buffalo Bills: Buffalo Sports Now
Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
10. Jacksonville Jaguars: Black and Teal
Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
Mike Iupati, G, Iowa
Earl Thomas, S, Texas
13. San Francisco 49ers: Niners Nation
C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
14. Seattle Sehawks (from Denver Broncos): Dave Krieg’s Strike Beard
Charles Brown, OT, USC
15. New York Giants: Ultimate NYG
Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas
16. Tennessee Titans: Music City Miracles
Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
17. San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina Panthers): Niners Nation
Taylor Mays, S, USC
18. Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers Today
Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
19. Atlanta Falcons: The Falcoholic
Sean Witherspoon, OLB, Missouri
20. Houston Texans: Houston Die Hards
Joe Haden, CB, Florida
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Bengal Stripes
Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
22. New England Patriots: Blauhg: A New England Patriots Blog
Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame
23. Green Bay Packers: Lombardi Ave
Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU
24. Philadelphia Eagles: Iggles Blog
Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
25. Baltimore Ravens: The Ebony Bird
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
26. Arizona Cardinals: Voice of the Cardinals
Brandon Graham, DE/OLB, Michigan
27. Dallas Cowboys: Blogging the Boys
?????
-
"The Sports Doctors"
iTunes/
Winamp
Windows
Media
RealOne -
Cowboy Up
Dedicated to providing the best Cowboys analysis anywhere, our efforts are free of charge but not free of expense. Your kind donation today will keep our drive alive.
Thank you
Or mail payment to:
RV2 Enterprises
P.O. Box 150093
Austin TX 78715-0093
Advertisers
-
Fave it!
-
SiteMeter
Burst Media
