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Trick or Treat?

My brain keeps running in a mobius strip, going over the same offensive and defensive points.  I think Dallas can keep it close and perhaps win if they can pick Eli.

We’re going on faith that the youngsters can repeat the Bucs performance.  I believe in Orlando Scandrick and am gaining faith in Mike Jenkins.  But Alan Ball?  Hey, I want to believe, mister, but all I have is 30 minutes of play.

Looking at the series the last few years, it’s surprising how often the matchup has confounded the predictors.  Think back to 2005.  The first meeting, in Dallas, pitted two of the hottest offenses in the league.  The Giants had averaged 34 points in their first month.  The Cowboys had averaged 32 points in their three wins, and had dropped 33 on Philly the week before.  The over/under was high.

The game was a 16-13 nail biter.

There has only been one blowout since ‘05, that being the ‘06 Monday Night fiasco where Drew Bledsoe finally cracked and handed the reins to Tony Romo.  Regardless of injures, the Dallas defense matches up pretty well against the Giants.  I’m discounting last year’s opener because those games are outliers, which distort our views of matchups.  In the other two games the Cowboys allowed 20 and 21 points to New York.

The line is Giants by 9.  I’m not a betting guy but I’d take the points if I were.  New York has not overpowered the Cowboys at any time in the last three years.  Unless New York has discovered the perfect steroids- masking drug, I don’t see the Giants suddenly overpowering the Cowboys now — unless Dallas gives them help with turnovers.

The trick for me is getting the Cowboys to 20.  I’m having a hard time getting there.

Come on, Alan Ball…

New York 20, Dallas 16

Your turn.  What’s in your crystal ball?

P.S. — just a hunch, but I think Roy Williams emerges this week.

Cowboys-Eagles Preview. Who Will Execute? Only the QBs Know

If you’ve been hanging around here a while you know that few rants crank me up like the blanket “the play calling sucked,” lament.

Sometimes, it does.  More often than not, the Cowboys lose because their execution sucks.  Let’s take the two Eagles games last year as examples.  In game one, the Eagles got a lot of early pressure on Tony Romo, with their blitzes.  Romo, however, was able to consistently slide in the pocket and find late releasing backs and tight ends and keep drives going.  He started 8-8 and posted TDs on his first two drives.

Donovan McNabb was matching him for about 25 minutes, hitting short timing routes and keeps the Eagles’ chains moving.  He was finally forced out of his rhythm and threw a pick late in the first half that turned the game in Dallas’ favor.

In game two, Romo had several big plays available in the first 20 minutes.  Terrell Owens was two steps behind Lito Sheppard on a go route and Romo badly overthrew him.  Later in the sequence Romo floated left, away from pressure, and just overthrew Sam Hurd, who could not make a diving catch for a big gain.

In the second quarter, with Dallas in the Eagles’ red zone, Romo missed an easy crossing route to a wide open Owens that would have been another touchdown. He started 0-6 in this game.

In between, Terence Newman dropped a 25 yard interception TD when he eyed the goalline and let a McNabb pass slip through his fingers.

In game one, the Cowboys executed, and had a 21-7 halftime lead.  In game two, proper execution would have given them another 21-7 halftime lead.  Instead, their drops and errant throws sent them to intermission down 7-3.

That’s the difference between winning and losing.  These teams know each other very well.  There wasn’t any great change in strategy from game one to game two, just a dropoff in playmaking by Dallas.  Here are some points to look for.

When Dallas Has the Ball

1.  Romo needs to go West Coast.  Brett Favre and McNabb have made a living with delays to running backs. You blitz them, a back stays in, they slide away from the pressure and make big plays with short dumpoffs to those same running backs who block and then release.

In game one, Romo jabbed effectively at the soft midsection of Philly coverage by doing a superb McNabb imitation.  He would side step pressure and then make short tosses to Marion Barber and Julius Jones.  The Eagles zone blitz a lot, and give heavy attention to T.O. and Jason Witten.  Delayed passes to the backs are big gainers because the linebackers have dropped deep and the backs have lots of open space in which to run.  Look for these plays as ways of blunting blitzes.

2.  Send Jason Witten vertically — The Eagles use FS Brian Dawkins a lot to help their corners over the top on Terrell Owens.  Jim Johnson brackets Witten as well, but he has done this with linebackers.  Dallas had big plays in both games sending Witten up the field on seam routes.  He’s too fast for the Philly backers, who are very, very big.  They’re better at rushing upfield than in covering downfield.

3.  Get good blocking from the backs.  Johnson likes to overload an offensive line up the middle.  He’ll give a split-six look, where all four of his d-linemen will shade the outside shoulders of your guards and tackles.  Then, he’ll line up two linebackers over your center and rush both.

When lines begin sliding their protection inside, to help the center, Johnson will bring two outside rushers, usually a linebacker and a safey or corner, off the weakside edge and drop the strong side defensive end into coverage.  Dallas countered this in the October game last year with stellar blitz pickups from Barber and Deon Anderson.  Felix Jones was hot and cold as a blocker and his playing time this week will depend on how much he complements the starters.

4.  Get T.O. invested in the game early.  The Cowboys wins over Philly have seen Owens or Terry Glenn get hot early.  The Eagles wins have seen their secondary start hot.  They’re a bully team, that gets a lead and pours it on.  If you can get ahead of them, their nature changes.  They press even harder and increase your chances for making big plays.

5.  Maintain the third and short advantage.  The Cowboys were superb in both games at beating the Eagles with draws on 3rd-and-3s and 3rd-and-4s.  The Eagles sold out blizing on many of those plays and the Cowboys interior line did a great job of blocking them.  Cory Procter will have to produce another quality game as a run blocker.

6.  Keep Flozell Adams motivated.  Adams dominated Trent Cole in both matchups last year, which allowed the Cowboys to help other linemen.  Johnson will no doubt test Adams and Procter with lots of twists.  He beat Adams and Kyle Kosier repeatedly with games like this in the Eagles’ 06 win at home.  Kosier was slow to switch and overextended.  Procter will have to prove he can recognize and make the switches.  The Browns went at him last week and he was okay, though big DTs like Shaun Rogers got by him one-on-one.

When the Eagles Have the Ball

1.  Tackle well –  Philly’s design is to hit passes in the short zones off three step drops and then take their shots up field when you commit more to jumping their short routes.  The Cowboys will concede a lot of four, five and six yard passes, if McNabb is in rhythm.  They can live with this, so long as their corners and linebackers make immediate tackles and eliminate yards after the catch.

2.  Attack Philly’s left side — the Eagles’ offensive line was leaky last year.  Their linemen gave up 23 sacks, compared to 11 for Dallas’ guys.  LG Todd Herremans surrendered five sacks and LT William Thomas gave up six, though he played only part of the season.  Dallas had a lot of success in the second game looping Demarcus Ware off the edge inside, at Herremans.

I look for Dallas to send more inside pressure, a la Philly, at McNabb, using Ware and ILBs Bradie James and Zach Thomas to shake McNabb out of his comfort zone.

3.  Defend against Philly’s right side.  The Eagles are right handed.  RG Shawn Andrews and RT Jon Runyan are their best power blockers.  The Cowboys played a lot of six man fronts against Cleveland last week, but they will stay in their base 3-4 or keep a SS in the box if the they deploy in a 4-3-5 nickel.  Dallas will not show six man fronts against Brian Westbrook.  Jay Ratliff told me at Oxnard that the Eagles and Vikings were the toughest opposing lines Dallas faced, because they’re both big and physical.  Ratliff won his battles against Jamal Jackson last year.  Marcus Spears and Ratliff need to stalemate Runyan.

4.  Mix up coverages — Dallas got two huge first half turnovers from McNabb because they mixed looks.  The Cowboys played a lot of zone, taking away big throws and forcing McNabb to make long sustained drives, in the hope that they could sack him or pressure him into risky throws.

The strategy worked.  I think Dallas will stay with heavy zone coverages, mixing in some man-to-man, for obvious reasons.  Westbrook and McNabb are Philly’s two biggest running weapons.  If you play lots of man-to-man, and either of them breaks containments, your d-backs are chasing their men and will have their backs turned to the line of scrimmage.  They won’t see either Eagle breaking into the open field.  This is how big plays occur.

Dallas’ strategy will be to get McNabb throwing short almost by rote, and then calling a M-2-M play, hoping he’ll relexively throw into the suddenly tight coverage.  This worked in the second game, but Newman, as I have said, dropped a gift-wrapped interception.

5.  Mind the screens — Dallas gives extra attention to Westbrook as a matter of course and the Cowboys were outstanding at recognizing and nullifying screens to him in both games last year.

Overall — You’ll know about ten minutes into the game what you’ll see.  If Romo starts hot, Dallas will have a good day.  If he doesn’t, it’s gonna be a 60 minute taffy pull.

Jason Garrett said in camp that the second Eagles game was their one real stinker from ‘07.  Not only was their execution poor, but their game plan seems to lack the snap from the first.  I think he and Romo will do a better job this time.

Defensively, I’m curious to see if the Cowboys give any attention to DeSean Jackson.  He’s the only receiver who poses a threat to the secondary.  I think they’ll start in their nickel and mix in 3-4 packages to keep McNabb and OC Marty Morhinweg guessing.

Dallas 23, Philadelphia 14

Cowboys @ Browns, Part IV: Rushing against Cleveland

The matchup of Dallas’ rushing attack against Cleveland’s rush defense provides the most intrigue, because it has the least carryover from last year. Both teams have re-armed, Cleveland on its defensive line and Dallas in its backfield and at tight end.

The Browns were uniformly bad on defense last year, ranking in the bottom quarter in both rushing and pass defense. The D-backs had respectable YPAs in one-on-one matchups, which suggests Cleveland had a poor rush and played a lot of zone to minimize the exposure to their secondary. The team’s woeful sack totals bear this out.

Cleveland was even worse stopping the run, allowing an average of 130 yards per game. GM Phil Savage and HC Romeo Crennell understand that if you can’t stop the run, you can’t stop anything and they paid a steep price this offseason to beef up their front seven. They traded Cleveland’s 2nd round pick in this past year’s draft to Green Bay for 320 lb. DT Corey Williams, who was immediately installed at LE in the Browns’ 3-4 front.

The team later traded its 3rd round pick and starting CB Leigh Bodden (a very good corner, BTW) to Detroit for DT Shaun Rogers. The Lions had grown tired of Rogers’ continual tease; he’s good but only in short doses, because he’s 350 lbs. and wears out quickly. The Browns penciled him in at nose tackle and plan on rotating him with 325 lb. backup Shaun Smith, in order to keep the new Shaun fresh.

Rogers will line up against Andre Gurode, who’s coming off a Pro Bowl ‘07 and who looked very good blocking big interior linemen. He got the better of Jamal Williams last month, though it must be said that Williams had only returned to practice two days before that game. Nonetheless, Gurode’s weakness has been getting out in space and cutting off quick linebackers. He’s better suited to playing big boys right in front of him, because he’s strong and can outquick nose tackles who are usually bigger than him.

Outside, Williams will square off with Marc Colombo, who had a very strong preseason. Colombo played with an injured ankle last year and he looked much stronger this summer. Dallas was decidedly left handed in it’s runs even before Kyle Kosier injured his foot. When Dallas does run inside, look for them to go behind Colombo and 355 lb. Leonard Davis.

The questions entering game one are how often the Cowboys will run early and with whom? As I mentioned yesterday, Dallas’ strategy in the brief Jason Garrett era has been to pass heavy early, wear out opposing defensive lines and then hammer Marion Barber late. Barber had an incredible second half line last year attacking fatigued defenses.

He’s the starter now, but I suspect the Cowboys will use the same formula. Look for them to pass a lot early. Also look for them to run wide a lot, to keep the Browns big fatties running. Dallas has favorable matchups on the edges, where Pro Bowler Jason Witten will match up against OLBs’ Willie McGinnest and Kamerion Wimbley. Both Browns are huge (McGinnest goes 270 and Wimbley goes 255). They’re going to play the entire game, however, since the Browns lost key rotation OLB Antwaan Peek to injury.

Dallas ran a lot of tosses to its right and I look for that tendency to continue, at least in the first half. It will also be interesting to see how Dallas mixes Barber and new RB Felix Jones. Last year the Cowboys balanced their carries, with Barber averaging 13 carries a game and Julius Jones getting 10. I think Barber will get a lot more carries, closer to 18 to 20 this year. That said, I think the new Jones will get his early touches.

The Cowboys ran a lot of passing plays for Felix. When he carried the ball, the calls of choice were off tackle plays, tosses and draws. I think he’ll figure heavily in the Cowboys’ game plan against that thin linebacking corps. While Dallas throws early to wear out the linemen, I think Garrett will also run Felix wide and get him out in space on short passes. Then, in the second quarter, the dose of Barber will increase. Dallas could come out and try butting heads with the Browns, but that hasn’t been Garrett’s style.

Special Teams

Injuries are the story here. The Browns have lost elite return man Joshua Cribbs to injury. That’s a relief for Dallas coverage teams that continue to be inconsistent. The injuries to Dallas’ receiving corps have messed with the team’s special teams rotations. Miles Austin and Sam Hurd were the team’s primary gunners last year and both are out. The lack of depth here was one reason why Alan Ball was kept and Evan Oglesby was cut when the Cowboys re-signed Keith Davis. Ball excelled at gunner at the end of preseason and may be active Sunday to play that role.

Isaiah Stanback’s injury may also scramble the team’s kickoff return plans. He and Austin were the team’s two designated kickoff returners and I wonder if Stanback will return kicks, being the only healthy WR behind T.O. and Patrick Crayton? Watch the Cowboys active roster tomorrow to see if Danny Amendola has been activated to play. The more likely candidate is Orlando Scandrick, who will likely be active as the 4th CB and as a kick cover man.

One returner who should play and who could impact the final is Adam Jones. He got two returns in preseason and showed he’s just as dangerous as he was in ‘06, when he rivaled Devin Hester as a top return man.

Prediction:

I wrote earlier that some teams are not fully ready for week one. The Browns look like one of those teams to me. A large number of key starters have not been able to practice much of the preseason. Derek Anderson only returned to practice this week after suffering a concussion three weeks ago. Braylon Edwards missed almost all of pre-season with a gashed foot. He too returned to practice this week.

Jamal Lewis is nursing a sore hamstring and has barely practiced the past couple of weeks. Safety Brodney Pool may not play because of a concussion.

It’s one thing to be a bit ragged because you didn’t play much in the preseason games. Cleveland is hoping its skill position core can step on the field and light it up with little preparation. They’re talented guys but they run a timing offense, so their task is harder.

The Cowboys offense has been smooth this preseason. If they can avoid turnovers, they should be able to move the ball.

Dallas 31, Cleveland 21

Cowboys @ Browns Preview, Part III

When Dallas Throws the Ball

The Cowboys run many of the same sets the Browns do, because the OC pedigrees are similar. Follow the bouncing ball: Jason Garrett played for Norv Turner and Ernie Zampese last decade and uses many of their aggressive, timing plays. Browns OC Rob Chudzinski was San Diego’s TE coach when Cam Cameron ran the Chargers’ offense under Marty Schottenheimer. Cameron runs the same schemes Turner does. When Chudzinski and Cameron both left last season, Chargers GM A.J. Smith hired Turner back because he would keep the same offensive fundamentals, allowing for a smooth transition to the new regime.

The bottom line is that you’ll see many of the same personnel packages from each team. A look at Dallas’ passing breakdown shows patterns similar to those we saw from the Browns in Part I of the preview:

Targets	Att.	% of Romo’s Att.	YPA
Terrell Owens	139	26	9.7
Jason Witten	141	27	8.2
Patrick Crayton	80	15	9.5
Totals	360	68

Look at the Cowboys’ table and look at the Browns. The percentages to the first three targets are almost uncanny. Dallas also uses its #1 WR and TE as options 1 and 1A. The second receiver also gets 15% of the passes.

The wideouts will be playing an underrated set of Browns corners. Last season Cleveland lined up Eric Wright and Leigh Bodden and got very good play from both. Wright was superb out of the collegiate box, posting a 6.1 YPA. He was very good against red-level wideouts and is Cleveland’s top cover man.

The Browns lost Bodden in free agency and are confident that nickel and dime backs Daven Holly and Brandon McDonald can step up. Both had YPAs under 7 last year, which is red-level, but have struggled in the ‘08 pre-season games.

The key to Dallas’ success will be getting T.O. away from Wright. Garrett was excellent at this last year, motioning Owens into the slot and working him on shallow crosses and seams over the middle, where he was matched up on linebackers and safeties. Nearly half of Owen’s ‘07 attempts came against these coverages.

The Browns use a lot of zone so look for more of the same. Don’t be surprised if Patrick Crayton has a strong game. He had a strong 9.5 YPA in ‘07, which ranked 11th overall. Crayton’s downfall is red-level corners. He posted a lousy 2.6 against top tier corners, so look for the Cowboys to line him up away from Wright as much as possible. Crayton was 9.2 or better against mid and low-level corners, so he may put up some big numbers working the rest of the Cleveland secondary. He had a Bob Hayes-esque 19.4 YPA against non-rated CBs.

If Isaiah Stanback can stay on the field and flash some deep speed (getting his hands on a deep ball will suffice, to keep the Browns corners honest) Crayton could get the favorable matchups he’s destroyed in the past.

It will be interesting to see how many times Jason Witten plays the F-back, motioning into the backfield and how often he lines up on the line of scrimmage and can run deeper routes up field. Deon Anderson’s health should see Dallas playing more two back sets, putting Witten outside an OT or in the slots, usually on the same side as Owens. This puts the safety on that side in the difficult position of trying to choose which option to cover deep.

When Tony Romo drops back to pass, he’ll be protected by one of the best units in the game. The Browns get a lot of ink because their starting five only allowed 10 sacks last year but Dallas’ starters only gave up 11. Flozell Adams allowed a league best one sack at left tackle and Andre Gurode was stellar inside. Mark Colombo is a bit weaker on the right side, giving up 5 sacks last year, but was gritty against top rushers.

The Cowboys line is dinged, with LG Kyle Kosier out with an injured foot. After shuffling several interior linemen into the LG slot, backup C Cory Procter will get the start. There’s some concern that Procter could have trouble with massive NT Shawn Rogers, the Browns big offseason acquistion on defense.

Procter will likely get help from his center and his offensive coordinator. Last year, Jason Garrett ran a 56/44 pass/run blend. What’s more, he skewed his play calling heavily towards the pass early and the run late. This tactic was very effective at wearing out defensive lines early, as it’s taxing for 330-340 lb. DTs to run several sprints in heat, especially when they’re chasing an active QB like Tony Romo.

Garrett used this strategy to perfection in week two last year against the Dolphins, when he had Miami’s DTs worn out before the half. I expect him to try the same tactic Sunday. Rogers is very talented, but is also very overweight and wears out quickly. I think Dallas will make him rush a lot the first two to three series, and send him to the oxygen tank as quickly as possible.

Dallas will be facing a Browns front that could muster only 28 sacks last year. Kamerion Wimbley led the team with 5 sacks. Cleveland’s top four rushers combined for 17 sacks. Demarcus Ware, by comparison, had 14 all by himself. The Browns rush may be further weakened by OLB Antwaan Peek’s knee injury. Watch his status as game time approaches.

Cleveland’s weak rush may be the deciding factor in the game. The Browns were criticized last year for sitting in zones and playing it safe early on. Their rush came on down the stretch and they have the talent to be troublesome when they’re healthy, but right now they’re not at full strength. Peek appears hurt, as is safety Brodney Pool, who recently suffered a concussion. He has not been practicing and may not play.

Romeo Crennell was Bill Belichick’s DL coach and he’ll try some creative ways to get his guys to Romo. If they fail early, he may call on heavy blitzing, which is exactly what Dallas is hoping for. Cleveland has talent in its secondary, but its young and somewhat erratic. If the Cowboys can prevent leaks at left guard, Romo will get some chances for big plays.

Cowboys @ Browns Preview, Part II: Stopping Cleveland’s Rush

It appears, at first glance, that the Cowboys have formidable opponents in Jamal Lewis and the Cleveland offensive line. The Browns showed great balance last year, with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow keeping secondaries honest. This kept eight man fronts to a minimum and created space for Lewis to run.

The Ravens gave up on Lewis but he showed he still has tread left on his football tires, rushing for 1,304 yards, averaging a very good 4.4 yards per attempt.

Lewis’ season can be broken down into two halves. He started slowly, carrying only once each in early losses to New England and Oakland and missing the Dolphins game completely. He averaged a pedestrian 64 yards per game in the Browns’ first nine contests and were it not for a breakout 216 yard game against Cincinnati in week two, Lewis would have averaged just 43 yards per game in that span.

He was a different runner in the Browns’ last 7 games, averaging 113 yards per contest and notching four 100 yard games. Only once in that stretch of games was he held below 92 yards.

These numbers suggest the Browns line gelled at mid-season and began steamrolling opponents, right?

Not exactly. Let’s look at Lewis’ performances when broken down by his opponents’ run-defense rankings:

Opp. Rush Defense Rank	Gms.	Att.	Yds.	Yds. Game	Yds. Att.
1-10	6	89	258	43.0	2.9
11-20	3	66	232	77.3	3.5
21-32	6	143	773	128.8	5.4

These numbers demonstrate that the Browns’ rushing game was good but not dominant in 2007. Cleveland had six games against rush defenses ranked in the top 10 — two against Pittsburgh, two against Baltimore and one each against Arizona and New England. Cleveland ran poorly in those matches. Lewis averaged less than three yards per carry and 43 yards per game.

Against mid-level rush defenses, those ranked 11th through 20th, the Browns put up solid numbers. Lewis averaged 3.5 yards a carry and just over 77 yards per game against the Seahawks, Texans and Rams.

When the Browns played poor run defenses, they ripped them apart. In their six games against the Bengals, Raiders, Jets, Bills and 49ers, Lewis ran wild, averaging over five yards a carry and nearly 130 yards per game. It’s a coincidence that Cleveland’s toughest run opponents clotted their early schedule and the weakest ones filled their second half.

Dallas’ run defense ranked 6th last year, and is likely stronger this season. Zach Thomas looks much more instinctive and productive than Akin Ayodele did last year. He shows no effects from the head problems that shortened his ‘07 campaign.

Dallas also has better depth at nose tackle, with Tank Johnson and Marcus Spears rotating inside with Jay Ratliff. These changes make Dallas stronger up the middle, the softest area in their ‘07 rush defense.

New DL coach Todd Grantham has Spears playing his best ball ever. He looked far more active in the preseason games and made a lot of plays in the backfield.

As I wrote yesterday, Cleveland does not run a lot of power formations, because Kellen Winslow lines up as a wide receiver so often. The Browns rely on second TE Steve Heiden, a 270 lb. load, to block on the edge when they line up in two-TE sets. When the Browns go standard, 250 lb. fullback Lawrence Vickers provides interference for Lewis.

Because Winslow blocks so poorly and because Dallas’ run defense is sound, I’ll again contend that we won’t see Roy Williams much on Sunday, as the Cowboys probably won’t keep an eighth man in the box. That player is better used in coverage. Dallas has the size at OLB to match up to Cleveland’s line and lead blocker with its standard 3-4 front.

I would not be surprised to see Dallas line up the strong side OLB, which is usually Greg Ellis, out in space on Winslow, to jam his release. Ellis would then turn Winslow over to the CB behind him and pursue runs inside or to the weakside. He would be counted on to beat Winslow at the point of attack on any outside runs his way.

In any case, don’t expect Dallas to go overboard trying to shut Lewis down. As the chart demonstrates, he and his teammates have trouble against good rush defenses, and Dallas has a good one.

Next: Dallas’ passing offense versus the Browns pass defense.

Cowboys @ Browns Preview, Part One

Why wait?

Opening Sunday is coming and you’re no doubt past due for some real football. Today, we begin by considering the matchups when the Browns offense faces the Dallas defense.

The Browns rocketed to a 10-6 mark last year on the shoulders of their offense. Ranked 12th in yards per game and 8th in points per game, Cleveland overcame a horrible preseason, in which all of its QBs struggled to settle into new OC Rob Chudzinski’s scheme, which he brought from San Diego, where Chudzinski served as Cam Cameron’s understudy.

The Browns appeared headed for a long year when they were drubbed 34-7 by the Steelers in week one. HC Romeo Crennell made what appeared to be a panic move when he benched starter Charlie Frye in the second quarter of the game and replaced him with Derek Anderson.

Crennell was actually making a bold statement, in showing confidence in Anderson’s wide open game. Crennell amplified the move by trading Frye to Seattle the following week, leaving only rookie Brady Quinn as a backup. Anderson and his mates responsed by hanging 51 points on Cincinnati the following week, scoring through the air and on the ground, where RB Jamal Lewis rushed for 216 yards.

The keys to Cleveland’s success were the concurrent breakouts of Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr. Both were top picks, Winslow going 6th overall in 2004 and Edwards going 3rd in 2005. Both missed significant time in ‘05 and ‘06 with knee injuries. Both regained their health in ‘07 and tore up opposing secondaries. They form the core of Cleveland’s passing attack:

Targets	Att.	% of Anderson’s Att.	YPA
Braylon Edwards	147	27	8.8
Kellen Winslow	141	26	7.9
Donte Stallworth, J. Jurivicius	79	15	10.4
total	367	68

(Stallworth played as the 3rd option for New England last year and his attempts from Tom Brady were almost identical to those Joe Jurivicius got from Anderson. Both QBs had very similar attempt totals and given good health for Edwards and Winslow, I see Stallworth filling the same role for the Browns.)

The table shows that Anderson is indeed a down-the-field thrower. More than two thirds of his passes went to his starting receivers and his tight end. He checks down grudgingly, which is one reason why he had the second highest QB bad decision total last year.

As I noted yesterday, Winslow lined up as a receiver on 75% of his plays, far more than any TE in the game.The Browns in effect run a three receiver offense, which suggests Dallas may go to its nickel a lot on early downs in order to match up. Dallas won’t go man-to-man on every down or maybe even on the majority of its downs, as the Cowboys like to zone blitz a lot.

When Dallas does match up, we might see a repeat of the strategy the team employed against New England’s three WR sets last year. In that game Dallas gave safety help to the corner who matched up against Randy Moss and took its chances on Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker. The Cowboys matched up well against the wide outs for three quarters but could not win in the slot, where Welker destroyed Nate Jones.

Terence Newman did not play in that game and his presence Sunday could allow the Cowboys to match up 1 through 3. Newman will likely get Edwards. #2 Anthony Henry, the biggest Cowboys corner at 6′1″, 207, would get the 6′4″ 240 lb. Winslow and Adam Jones will get Stallworth. Jones has improved every game for Dallas but would likely get some safety assistance; he’s a hyper-aggressive CB who tries to jump everything short and he had a lot of trouble in Oxnard and in the early games when he faced fast WRs.

Cleveland could use more three WR sets to try and create better interior matchups for Winslow, but they’ve lost Joe Jurivicius for the season and #4 Joshua Cribbs for the game. They will rely on 4th and 5th WRs Syndric Steptoe and Paul Hubbard. Dallas can emphathize.

Up front, the Cowboys front seven will match up against a Browns line considered one of the best in the NFL. The Cleveland line allowed just 10 sacks last year, according to Scientific Football ’08’s line blocking metrics, lowest in the game. The Browns invested heavily in their line last year, picking LT Joe Thomas 3rd overall in the draft and spending a mint to lure LG Eric Steinbach from Cincinnati. They formed an effective left side of the Browns line.

The line was doubly effective when you consider that Cleveland flexed Winslow off the tackles so much, meaning the Browns backup tight ends and backs were very effective at assisting their linemen.

The Cowboys are a blitzing team that likes to rush five men on most passing downs. They prefer to send both OLBs, Demarcus Ware and Greg Ellis together, in addition to the line. Dallas will probably try this early, to learn if the Browns can handle both of them without assistance. Ware and Ellis combined for 26.5 sacks last year, almost as many as the entire Cleveland team (28 sacks). The Browns have two very good pass blocking tackles, in Thomas and RT Kevin Shaffer. Each gave up only two sacks last year. However, it’s very hard to block two blitzing OLBs with an offensive line without sacrificing interior protection.

And the interior is probably the weakness of Cleveland’s protection. Steinback gave up 3.5 sacks and C Hank Fraley surrendered 2.5, the two highest totals on the line. The Cowboys will likely rotate rushing NTs Jay Ratliff and Tank Johnson at Fraley. Also look for Dallas to fake outside blitzes and try interior stunts and blitzes with SOLB Bradie James. The Browns had a lot of trouble in their preseason games handling interior blitzes and their QBs took a lot of shots. I expect the Cowboys to test the Browns inside and keep testing then until the blitzes don’t work.

Dallas will want to hit Anderson early and test his mettle. He missed the last two Browns games recovering from a concussion he suffered when Osi Umenyiora slammed his head into the Meadowland’s turf. Reports today said the Browns are optimistic Anderson can play. The Cowboys will try to make his afternoon a short one. If the can stay upright, they’re hoping the pressure can produce more bad decisions and several turnovers.

Wednesday: The Cowboys defense versus the Browns running attack.

“Are you ready for some sock-ker!?”

– The Simpsons, mocking Hank Williams Jr.’s tired opening line.

Finally. Real action that everybody can see. For those living in a cave, the NFL Network will broadcast the Cowboys/Chargers game, so get yourself to a friend with cable, or a sports bar. The game will be visible nationwide. It’s only a preseason game, meaning the starters will play at most a quarter. That said, here are some matchups to look for, some rookies to track and where to find them.

When Dallas Has the Ball

– The same starting 11 will return to the field from the Giants playoff game, with Marion Barber now the man at running back. Deon Anderson will play fullback when Dallas goes to its 21 packages (two backs) and Tony Curtis will join Jason Witten when Dallas calls for its 12 sets (two TEs). See how often Martellus Bennett spells Curtis. The more he plays in the first quarter, the more ready the coaches feel he is. He’ll play a lot, regardless.

When the starters are in, take a look to see how Andre Gurode fares against mammoth NT Jamal Williams. And don’t dawdle. Williams sat out the first week of camp and likely won’t play more than a series or two, if he plays at all.

The Chargers front appears a bit dinged. Starting DEs Igor Olashansky and Luis Castillo have missed time with back problems and may also miss the game entirely.

At linebacker, former 49ers ILB Derek Smith will start for Stephen Cooper, who will miss the first month on suspension.

In the secondary, however, the Chargers appear loaded and will challenge the Cowboys receiving corps. Quentin Jammer has resumed with strong ‘07 with a strong training camp. He and Antonio Cromartie will match up against T.O. and Patrick Crayton. Crayton was very strong against league-average CBs but really struggled against blue-chippers, so Dallas may throw away from him if Jammer gets him.

The game will also let us see Chargers 1st rounder Antoine Cason, whom the San Diego scribes call one of the team’s best performers in camp.

Watch to see if Felix Jones gets some reps with the first team. The Cowboys have installed some special sets that get him on the field with Marion Barber and on 3rd down but they may be kept under wraps until the games count.

When the second quarter begins, watch the second line. Doug Free has been working exclusively at left tackle but watch James Marten and Pat McQuistan, who have both been rotating at left guard and right tackle. If Dallas goes all backups, look for a Free, Marten, Cory Proctor, Joe Berger, McQuistan lineup from left tackle to right tackle. Dallas won’t keep all five of these guys, with Berger and Marten probably facing the longest odds at this point.

When San Diego Has the Ball

The Chargers are really beaten up here, so the Dallas starting eleven will match up against a lot of backups. Center Nick Hardwick has yet to practice while rehabbing an injured ankle. Former 49er Jeremy Newberry will take his place until at least October, as Hardwick is expected to miss four games. That said, Newberry is being paced slowly; the 12 year vet’s knees are cartilage deficient.

The Cowboys will also miss three key Chargers skill-position players. WR Vincent Jackson played lights out week one, but strained a hamstring and has missed the last week. He’s out. So is Antonio Gates, who is rehabbing a surgically-repaired big toe and is aiming for the season opener.

Dallas will also miss LaDainian Tomlinson, who will be held out of every pre-season game, according to head coach Norv Turner. Tomlinson has nothing to prove and with the other injuries, Turner will not risk his biggest offensive weapon.

Rookie Watch

Where some Dallas bubble boys are working out:

– Danny Amemdola has been playing the slot, gunner on punt coverage teams, punt and kickoff returner.

– Alonzo Coleman has been playing RB, and coverage on punts and kickoff teams. The same is true for Keon Lattimore. They are both batting to be the 4th running back, if the Cowboys keep four.

– Erik Walden is backing up Demarcus Ware at WOLB and is on the coverage teams as well.

Trading Black Hats for White Ones — Or Not?

Duane Thomas once commented that the Dallas Cowboys have never won anything without controversy. Thomas of course generated his fair share of it, but he has a point. Let’s look at some of the Cowboys’ championship seasons and consider the distractions that accompanied each one:

1971 — 1970 Rookie of the Year Thomas is traded during the preseason, has his trade to New England reversed after a bustup with Pats’ coach John Mazur, returns and then plays the season without speaking to his teammates. Meanwhile, Tom Landry employs a quarterback rotation system, which craters in week seven when he alternates Roger Staubach and Craig Morton on each offensive play in an embarrassing loss to a bad Chicago Bears team.

The offense settles down after Staubach is named the starter and the Cowboys run the table.

1993 — The Cowboys have little time to celebrate their third title before Emmitt Smith and Jerry Jones stage a contract showdown. Smith holds out and Dallas stumbes into the season with two losses. The team settles down and swaggers through the playoffs, though it has to overcome several key injuries, namely Mark Stepnoski’s ACL tear, Smith’s separated shoulder and Troy Aikman’s concussion, which wipes out his memory of the Super Bowl.

Simmering beneath the surface is the rift between Jones and Jimmy Johnson, which erupts almost immediately after they accept their second Lombardi trophy. Jimmy clumsily dodges a question in the locker room about his readiness to pursue a third consecutive title and days later mocks Jones on The Tonight Show. The J.J.s part shortly thereafter.

1995 — Dallas pursues it’s third title of the Jones era with the widely-despised Barry Switzer at the helm. Jones picks a fight with the league over sponsorship deals and is served with a lawsuit during a league meeting. The Cowboys are ripped for “buying a title” after they outbid San Francisco for Deion Sanders’ services. The cries for Switzer’s dismissal peak after his two 4th-and-1 gambles fail in Philadelphia. When Dallas beats the Steelers in the Super Bowl the sighs of relief are as loud as the cheers.

It seems the Cowboys require discord to fuel their title runs. Perhaps that’s why the Terry Glenn tiff feels like home; I’d be far more worried if everything were hunky dory.

I think many Cowboys fans feel the same way. One character trait I’ve noticed in the three plus years of running this site is that the Cowboys nation cannot exist without creating villains on their own team.

Look at the Parcells years. Drew Bledsoe was always the instant scapegoat, even when losses were not directly his fault. More recently, Julius Jones served as a whipping boy for the fans.

Even today, with the Cowboys coming off a 13-3 season, there are several black hats riding in the posse. I give you the Cowboys you love to hate, ‘08 edition:

• Roy Williams
• Terry Glenn
• Marcus Spears
• Bobby Carpenter

and give you these potential baddies:

• Wade Phillips
• Tony Romo
• Anthony Henry
• Adam Jones
• Tank Johnson

a former black hat gone straight:

• Flozell Adams

and these wild cards:

• Greg Ellis
• Terrell Owens

Too much controversy? Too many loose cannons? From my perspective, the blend looks great. The Cowboys thrive on crazy and Jerry has done his best the past two years to raise the instability quotient. Outsiders may deride his gambles on T.O. and the former Pacman Jones but team history suggests he’s right where he needs to be.

Dallas May Be America’s Team…

but the Patriots are Hungary’s Team, dammit!

Check out this site.

It seems the Hungarians also love themselves some Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cowboys, based on visitors, are mid-pack.

Coming Attactions, Rock-Hard Performance Boosters and a Final Camp Pitch

– The NFL year is heading farther into the dead zone, with the coaches due to take their vacations before the camp grind begins. The team did release its camp schedule so we have a target. Workouts begin on July 25th, just four weeks from today.

We’re not slowing down here at BSR. I’m interviewing K.C. Joyner tonight and will publish his comments over the weekend. We’ll be talking about Adam Jones, the Cowboys secondary in general, T.O., possible second wideouts, Tony Romo and a host of other topics.

K.C. will also discuss Scientific Football 2008, which is about to be released, and a new cornerback tracking feature that his web site will feature this year. Check in for that.

We’re also going to talk about Cowboys fandom with the folks at Barry Switzer Ate My Hamster Too, better known as The Hamster, a U.K.-based Cowboys fanzine that’s been around since the mid ’90s. The lads will tell us what it’s like to root for the good team from almost half way around the globe. I wonder if they have any Page 3 girls for their fanzine? Hmmmm, I wonder if we can get some Page 3 girls for BSR!? (Page 3 Girls are a “feature” of The Sun, the biggest daily “red top” in England. Warning — may not be work safe.)

– They’re not just corking their bats any more — A few years ago, when Viagra was first introduced, an NBA official joked that “the league should test for a lot of drugs but if it really wants to scare the players, it should announce its testing for Viagra.”

Seems there might be something to that line. Sports officials now think the little blue pill might enhance on-field performance. The major sports leagues might just have to test for it after all — or put medicine jars full of them in every trainers room!

Viva Viagra indeed.

Finally — we’re in the home stretch of our fund drive. We’re at $1,835 now and are closing in on $2,000, which is the amount which would make it comfortable for me to cover all two initial weeks of camp. I’m closing the drive on Monday, so pitch in if you can and help us reach our goal.

A big thanks to the generous people who have already donated. We won’t let you down.

Cowboys vs. Giants 3.0 Preview

Two old rivals meet for the very first time in the playoffs Sunday as the Giants travel to Texas Stadium.

For all the hype about the Giants win over Tampa Bay and their near miss against the Patriots, lets understand one major point — the Bucs game is meaningless. The Bucs had one speed threat in Joey Galloway and when he went gimpy, the Giants played the run and the short zones. In the second half the corners played press coverage and the safeties were just five and six yards off the line of scrimmage.

Eight man fronts? No, try eleven man fronts. They wouldn’t dare try this against Dallas. The Cowboys would go over the top immediately.

The season opener is also meaningless. It was eighteen weeks ago. Jeremy Shockey played then. He won’t Sunday. Terence Newman didn’t play then but he will this time around.

The November rematch should provide the best picture of what the teams will try in the rubber game.

When The Giants Have the Ball

New York has relied more on the running game since Shockey broke his ankle in December. They’ll need to rely heavily on the run if they want to continue the ball control approach they used against Tampa Bay.

They can do this for two reasons. One, they used a similar short-pass, ball control approach in Giants Stadium. The Giants ran effectively on first and second down and then used Shockey as their primary passing weapon. He had 129 receiving yards in that game, out gaining the rest of the Giants receiving corps combined.

The Giants had their best success running at the edges of the Dallas 3-4. They preferred running to their right, to Marcus Spears’ side, though they had some success running left as well.

New York ran two seemingly different plays effectively that day. When they went right, they would set a strong formation that way and have the tight end block down on Spears while right tackle Kareem McKenzie would pull and go after the outside linebacker. The Giants fullback would lock on to the strong side linebacker and Brandon Jacobs had regular lanes that he exploited for five, six and seven yard gains.

When New York went right, they would load up to that side, but pull right guard Chris Snee off the weakside. The assignments were basically the same; New York used the lineman on each side — McKenzie and Snee, who are their best pullers. If the Giants succeed with these plays, they can give Eli Manning short downs on which to throw ball control.

And ball control is what the Giants have. Plaxico Burress went crazy in week one, but was quiet in the rematch when Newman tracked him all over the field. Expect Dallas to repeat this tactic. Burress is their lone deep threat and if Newman can contain him the Cowboys can rotate coverage towards Amani Toomer, who has been the only New York receiver to average more than six yards per reception since Shockey went down. The Giants will have to make do with backup Kevin Boss playing in Shockey’s role.

This matchup, as I mentioned early this week, will turn on first down. If the Giants are in second and short, they’ll move the ball. They had three drives of more than seven minutes in the rematch. If Dallas keeps the Giants in second and third and long, they’ll play their game.

When New York is in certain passing downs look for the Cowboys to blitz heavily up the middle, with Bradie James or Roy Williams coming into the pocket. The Giants were effective at keeping these two blitzers off of Manning, but Dallas won the strategic matchup. Manning wasn’t sacked but he didn’t have to be; whenever the Cowboys succeeded in making Manning slide laterally and throw on the move, his accuracy went way down. He’s at his best when he’s able to stand and deliver. Wade Phillips will try to limit these situations for him.

When Dallas Has the Ball

T.O.’s back. And that makes a huge difference. He was THE focus of the Giants secondary in game two. Whenever he lined up in the slot he was guaranteed double coverage and sometimes triple coverage.

Owens was most effective lining up outside, because the blitz-heavy Giants like to play their safeties closer to the field. This made it harder to give help over the top on first and second downs. The Giants tried matching Sam Madison on him and Owens simply out muscled him and later outraced him for a touchdown. Look for Dallas to throw his way early if Tony Romo sees tight coverage.

Madison is injured so the Giants may play looser coverage, in order to give their backups some help against him.

Patrick Crayton ended up being the early star in game two, working the middle on crossing routes and stops against the linebackers and safeties. Dallas may also look at backup Anthony Fasano for first downs in order to shift attention away from Owens and from Jason Witten.

The ‘06 Cowboys used Julius Jones as a down the field weapons in situations like these, going to an open set. The ‘07 Cowboys rarely go four or five wide, but we could see Jones working up field on wheel routes to take his crack at the soft middle defenders in the Giants’ secondary.

New York has a choice to make. Will they double Owens and Witten or will they blitz? Their line has been poor at pressuring Romo with just four men. Osi Umenyiora, as Paul Zimmerman noted, has been nullified by Flozell Adams this year. The Cowboys have been able to give tight end and running back chip help to RT Marc Colombo in his matchup against Michael Strahan because Adams can handle Umenyiora alone.

For this reason the Giants have had to bring heavy pressure to help their ends. Dallas has been very good this year at anticipating the blitzes and getting Witten, Owens and Crayton open on crossing routes.

When Dallas runs, they’ll likely go more to their right, where Strahan looks vulnerable. He’s very good at tracking plays down from behind but is not so good when teams go right at him.

Prediction:

Dallas has attacked the Giants in the air in both games. They’ve averaged 38 points. I see no reason for them to back off. The Giants will play the other way, trying to go ball control. They’re not one dimensional, but they’re far less effective throwing the ball without Shockey.

Dallas 31, New York 17

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Cowboys vs. Giants 3.0, Part Two — The Battle of First Down

The Giants are getting a lot of love from some pundits, who feel they’ve turned a corner after their near upset of New England and their solid win over Tampa Bay. They do have a chance to beat the Cowboys Sunday afternoon, but that will depend not so much on Eli Manning, the Giant receiving all the ink, but on RB Brandon Jacobs and on the Giants offensive line.

In week one, Manning had a huge passing game. His starting receivers, Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer, went crazy. Toomer caught 9 passes for 91 yards and Burress hit the Cowboys’ corners for 144 yards on eight catches. Three of those receptions were for touchdowns. Burress was an equal opportunity abuser, beating Anthony Henry for 60 yards on the game’s second play from scrimmage. He later caught two TDs on Jacques Reeves.

Dallas clamped down the receivers in game two — Burress and Toomer combined for only seven catches for 61 yards. That strategy opened the middle of the field for Jeremy Shockey, who burned Roy Williams and friends for 12 catches and 129 yards.

Shockey broke his ankle late in the season and will miss the game. In his absence, New York has gone to a three receiver look a lot more, utilizing rookie WR Steve Smith. The Giants have had mixed success; both Smith and Burress had yards per attempt averages of 5.8 and 5.2 respectively the last month of the season, according to K.C. Joyner. Those are poor marks and were only offset by Toomer’s very good 10.8 YPA.

The Giants, in short, have become a dink and dunk team. Burress has played the entire season on a bad ankle and seems to have lost his deep gear. For this reason, and because Shockey is out, I look for Dallas to use the same game plan they used in November — take Toomer and Burress away and force the Giants to beat them with Smith and new TE Kevin Boss.

New York can win this way — provided it can run effectively on first and second down. The Giants were very good on the ground in both Dallas games. In week one, they averaged 6.0 yards per carry. In the rematch, Brandon Jacobs ran 24 times for 95 yards, one short of a neat 4.0 average.

This game, from Dallas’ perspective, will be won or lost on first down. If the Cowboys can shut down the Giants run — a task that’s easier said than done — and leave the Giants in second and long and third and long, they can pressure Manning. If Jacobs is ripping off four and five yard runs and the Giants find themselves in second and five or less, then OC Kevin Gilbride can continue calling the short, timing plays that Manning executed so well against the Bucs.

Cowboys vs. Giants 3.0 — The Middle is always open

Here’s a quick game analysis to take your mind off the “the media doesn’t respect us” and “Eli Manning is transmogrifying into Johnny Unitas before our very eyes” memes that are already corrupting the Cowboys/Giants buildup.

Forget all those angles. There’s a trend that the Giants backers have to account for, one that remains in Dallas’ favor.

I’m talking about New York’s weak linebacker and safety coverage.

In the lead up to Cowboys/Giants 2.0 in the Meadowlands, we heard a lot of hot air about the improved play of New York’s defense, and how they were a different unit now, and how their healthy ends Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan were going to expose Tony Romo as a fraud.

Let’s look at little closer at the results:

Scores:

• Dallas 45, New York 35
• Dallas 31, New York 20

Okay, the Giants were fourteen points better at defending Dallas in the rematch, but the Cowboys were fifteen points better.

Let’s look a little closer still:

• Romo, game one: 15-24, 345 yds. 4 TDs, 1 Int., sacked once for a 9 yard loss.
• Romo, game two: 20-28, 247 yds. 4 TDs, 1 Int., sacked once for a 4 yard loss.

Funny, but I don’t see any evidence of a Giants rush in either game. Which brings me to my third point:

• Cowboys’ TEs and RBs, game one: 8 catches for 156 yards;
• Cowboys’ TEs and RBs, game two: 5 catches for 11 yards;

In the initial shootout, the Giants could not cover Jason Witten, who finished with 6 catches for 116 yards. Nor could they stop Marion Barber and Julius Jones, who combined for two catches for 40 yards. The Giants focused on shutting down Terrell Owens, who didn’t catch a ball until the second half, but were consistently gashed in the deep and intermediate middle of the field. Witten and the backs had a 19.5 yards per reception average. That will get you killed.

Fast forward to game two. The Giants learned their lesson, clamping down on Witten. And they put bracket coverage on T.O. and baited Romo into a pick in the second quarter, when they took a 14-10 lead.

But Dallas adjusted. Jason Garrett began calling plays for Patrick Crayton in the middle of the field. He converted a few key third downs motioning into the slot and running past Giants linebackers and safeties. Crayton caught a TD just before the half when he beat Aaron Ross on a slant and walked in for the score because the Giants had rushed eight men.

In the second half, Garrett broke the game open by moving T.O. to the slot and matching him on a safety. The 50 yard TD bomb provided the final margin of victory.

Whether it’s with tight ends, back or receviers, Dallas has killed New York in the middle of the field. The New York linebackers are suspect in coverage and while Gibril Wilson makes plays, the Giants safeties can also be burned. Look at what another top tier offense did two weeks ago:

• Wes Welker — 11 catches, 122 yards;
• Kevin Faulk — 8 catches, 64 yards;
• Randy Moss — 6 catches, 100 yards;

The Giants took a similar approach to the Eagles, who slowed the Pats down by doubling Moss and forcing Tom Brady to find other targets. The strategy should not surprise; Eagles DC Jim Johnson was Giants DC Steve Spagnuolo’s mentor. And the first part of the game plan worked. Through three quarters, Moss had only 30 yards receiving.

However, the New York secondary was unable to stop Welker or Faulk. Faulk made two key fourth quarter plays, gaining 10 yards on a 3rd-and-9 to keep a Pats scoring drive alive and then gaining 13 on a third-and-11, when he caught a pass at seven yards and beat poor linebacker tackling to gain the final six yards.

Moss finally came alive early in the 4th when New York increased their pressure on Brady, giving him single coverage. Moss immediately got behind the New York secondary.

The middle is always open, if you have the weapons to pressure the Giants’ coverage. Tampa Bay could not. First, they had the poorest offensive line I’ve seen on a playoff team in a long time. New York regularly pressured Jeff Garcia up the middle and regularly got one and sometimes two men through untouched. That never happened when Dallas faced the Giants; New York sacked Romo only twice this year.

Secondly, whom did Tampa have at the tight end and running backs positions who could distress the Giants’ coverage? Earnest Graham, Alex Smith and Jerramy Stevens don’t match up to Jason Witten and Marion Barber.

So long as Terrell Owens plays, and he practiced today, the Cowboys can create matchup problems for New York at all levels in the center of the field.

Cowboys @ Panthers Preview

Can Dallas bounce back? Is Tony Romo’s thumb well? We’ll find out a day early when the Cowboys travel to Carolina Saturday night. Find your local sports bar or your buddy with satellite programming. This one’s on the NFL Network, as the Packers game was.

When Carolina Has The Ball

Cowboys’ castoff Matt Moore will make his second career start against his old team. When I saw him in camp, I saw a guy with a strong arm, sure delivery but some softness to his accuracy. His first start against Seattle was typical of a first time starter’s game.

Carolina called about a 55/45% run-pass mix. So option one will be stopping the run. The Panthers don’t want to put the game on Moore’s shoulders, so the Cowboys should expect some heavy running on first and second downs. The Panthers are using a platoon system similar to the Cowboys’ with D’Angelo Williams and Deshaun Foster splitting the carries.

The Cowboys, as we know, play better in pursuit. The Lions and the Eagles have had some success running zone blocking plays at the Cowboys triad of Jay Ratliff, Akin Ayodele and Bradie James. The ILBs in particular have had some difficulty disengating from guards when the action comes right at them.

A key to stopping inside runs will be Keith Davis. He’s getting the start at SS in place of suspended Roy Williams, as the Cowboys are leaving Ken Hamlin at FS. This seems like a smart move. Replacing Hamlin leaves Dallas at risk of giving up the big play, something they have avoided for the most part this year. What’s more, Davis is far better in run support than he is as a cover guy. He’s a smaller version of Roy Williams, so SS plays to his strengths.

Another reason to leave Hamlin deep is that Carolina throws almost exclusively to its wide receivers. It lacks a real tight end threat and Moore only uses his backs as a last resort. The key to stopping the Panthers passing attack is simple — slow down Steve Smith. In years past, Dallas would put Terence Newman on Smith and give him help over the top. I look for more of the same tomorrow.

Take away Moore’s primary and force him to go through his progressions and the Cowboys will have opportunties to sack him or force errant throws. He’s smart, but he’s not the most mobile guy. Dallas used a lot of press coverage against Donovan McNabb last week and I look for more pressure.

When the Cowboys Have the Ball

Run it, boys. Seattle got in trouble last week by abandoning the run, giving only 11 carries to Shawn Alexander and friends, while giving Matt Hasselbeck 41 attempts. Sound familiar? Look at the play scripts from the Eagles’ loss. Too many throws by a sore-thumbed Romo and not enough attempts for Marion Barber and Julius Jones.

The reasons are understandable. Jason Garrett’s calls were getting guys open — repeatedly. Tony Romo simply could not make the throws he has all year. Dallas had multiple opportunties for a quick strike but could not excute.

We may see a more deliberate approach this week because the Panthers are not a heavy blitzing team. When healthy they rely on their front four to generate a rush and play a lot of zone behind it.

This could mean a replay of the Lions play sheet, when Romo made heavy use of his tight ends and backs as targets, as the Lions worked to take Terrell Owens’ big plays away. The Panthers don’t score a lot so they cannot get into a shootout with the Cowboys. A bend-bit-don’t-break approach will likely be Carolina’s.

Romo can eat up opponents who try this — if he’s healthy. I’ve seen very little on his thumb. If he opens spraying the ball, as he did last week, we could be in for a long evening.

Prediction:

The Panthers are 2-6 in their last eight games. They’ve topped 13 points just twice in that span, once when they scored 17 points in a 31-17 loss to Green Bay and 31 in a blowout win over the 49ers. They’re averaging 12.5 points since their bye.

Carolina does not score points. The Cowboys defense should be able to contain them. Carolina’s hope of winning will hinge on holding Dallas well under their season total. The Panthers held the Seahawks down last week and upset them 13-10. With Tony Romo’s thumb out of sorts, this is a concern. Carolina has a good defense and can hold an opponent down at home.

It does appear, however, that Julius Peppers will not play, and will not be near full strength if he manages to make the field.

Romo had his choice of receivers last week. It was not a matter of finding open targets, but of getting them the ball. The Panthers are not a big blitzing team and I think that Romo will get the time he needs to make his throws.

Don’t be surprised if the game is close at half of even after three quarters. Dallas blew open a one point game last year in the 4th and cruised to to 35-14 win. We could be looking at another such game on a short week.

Dallas 27 — Carolina 13

Cowboys vs. Eagles Preview

Round Two between the divisional rivals when the Cowboys host the Eagles this Sunday in the national game. The teams have gone in opposite directions since they met in early November. Dallas’ win over Philly that Sunday night propelled them to a three game romp through the division and was the second in a now seven game winning streak.

The Eagles appeared to have recovered the Dallas loss with two wins that put them at 5-5, but have lost three close games since to drop to 5-8.

Is this the week the Eagles give it up, or will they continue to fight?

When Dallas Has the Ball

The offensive line was the key to Dallas first win, holding the Eagles’ blitz at bay and running over them in the second half. Flozell Adams led the line, shutting out then NFC sack leader Trent Cole. The Cowboys chipped Cole then ran at him.

When Jim Johnson’s linemen broke through, Tony Romo had the mobility to evade them and break the pressure with a series of dumpoffs to Julius Jones and Marion Barber.

Dallas was able to effectively counter the pressure through the air and on the ground. The Eagles game was one of the first to feature that Cowboys bunch toss, which ran to such great effect last week in Detroit. Catching a team bringing heavy inside pressure with a flanking run can produce big plays, so look for the toss some more this week.

Dallas also broke the Eagle’s double coverage on Terrell Owens by using lots of slot packages and three receiver sets with Owens inside. This made it harder for the Eagles to bracket Owens as they had in the ‘06 meetings. The Eagles did not play matchup all the time and Owens made some big plays working against third corners. Don’t expect Johnson to make the same mistake twice. Lito Sheppard or Sheldon Brown will be on him this week, no matter where he goes. The Eagles were able to do something similar to Randy Moss in their near upset of New England three weeks ago and I don’t think they’ll let T.O. rip them up again.

It come down to Romo to use Jason Witten, he of the helmetless run in the first game, and some other receiving weapons, eat least early on. Last year, the Eagles tried to frustrate Owens and succeeded. This year, Romo showed he could beat their pressure to secondary targets and found Owens more and more as the game progressed.

When Philadelphia Has the Ball

In game one, the Eagles had early success throwing at Jacques Reeves. Reggie Brown beat him for a big play, which set up an Eagles’ TD. Terence Newman is ailing this week, so Reeves may be manning the left corner spot again. Look for Philly to to there immediately if he is.

On the other side, Anthony Henry is slowly rounding back into form. The Eagles tried beating him with double moves last year, which bedeviled young Pat Watkins. Those combos are harder this year, with Ken Hamlin manning the deep center. He got a pick in the first matchup and has made deep throws much harder to complete.

The key to game one was steady Dallas pressure. Demarcus Ware got a strip on Dallas’ opening play and the Cowboys were off to a quick start. He and Greg Ellis and Chris Canty will look to get into whichever Eagles’ QB’s face.

The key to beating the Eagles is always containing Brian Westbrook. The Cowboys contained him in Philly. He got 155 yards rushing and receiving, but needed 30 touches to amass that. Bradie James was most responsible for identifying and snuffing out his trademark screens.

Overall

There are not many secrets between these teams.  The difference the first time around was that Dallas simply overmatched the Eagles, on both lines of scrimmage.

I think the Eagles will still bring their A game and feel this could be a dangerous matchup.  Philly owned this rivalry until recently and they cannot be happy thinking it’s slipping in Dallas’ favor.  They can move the ball on Dallas and if the Cowboys don’t respond with their top play, this could be another long day.

On the other hand, who knows how the Eagles will respond to their near elimination.  The best they can finish is 8-8.  There are rumors that Donovan McNabb could be traded this coming offseason and we may be seeing them begin preparations for 2008.

I look for a rugged game.  I’ll be very happy to be wrong.

Dallas 28, Philadelphia 21

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