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“Are you ready for some sock-ker!?”

– The Simpsons, mocking Hank Williams Jr.’s tired opening line.

Finally. Real action that everybody can see. For those living in a cave, the NFL Network will broadcast the Cowboys/Chargers game, so get yourself to a friend with cable, or a sports bar. The game will be visible nationwide. It’s only a preseason game, meaning the starters will play at most a quarter. That said, here are some matchups to look for, some rookies to track and where to find them.

When Dallas Has the Ball

– The same starting 11 will return to the field from the Giants playoff game, with Marion Barber now the man at running back. Deon Anderson will play fullback when Dallas goes to its 21 packages (two backs) and Tony Curtis will join Jason Witten when Dallas calls for its 12 sets (two TEs). See how often Martellus Bennett spells Curtis. The more he plays in the first quarter, the more ready the coaches feel he is. He’ll play a lot, regardless.

When the starters are in, take a look to see how Andre Gurode fares against mammoth NT Jamal Williams. And don’t dawdle. Williams sat out the first week of camp and likely won’t play more than a series or two, if he plays at all.

The Chargers front appears a bit dinged. Starting DEs Igor Olashansky and Luis Castillo have missed time with back problems and may also miss the game entirely.

At linebacker, former 49ers ILB Derek Smith will start for Stephen Cooper, who will miss the first month on suspension.

In the secondary, however, the Chargers appear loaded and will challenge the Cowboys receiving corps. Quentin Jammer has resumed with strong ‘07 with a strong training camp. He and Antonio Cromartie will match up against T.O. and Patrick Crayton. Crayton was very strong against league-average CBs but really struggled against blue-chippers, so Dallas may throw away from him if Jammer gets him.

The game will also let us see Chargers 1st rounder Antoine Cason, whom the San Diego scribes call one of the team’s best performers in camp.

Watch to see if Felix Jones gets some reps with the first team. The Cowboys have installed some special sets that get him on the field with Marion Barber and on 3rd down but they may be kept under wraps until the games count.

When the second quarter begins, watch the second line. Doug Free has been working exclusively at left tackle but watch James Marten and Pat McQuistan, who have both been rotating at left guard and right tackle. If Dallas goes all backups, look for a Free, Marten, Cory Proctor, Joe Berger, McQuistan lineup from left tackle to right tackle. Dallas won’t keep all five of these guys, with Berger and Marten probably facing the longest odds at this point.

When San Diego Has the Ball

The Chargers are really beaten up here, so the Dallas starting eleven will match up against a lot of backups. Center Nick Hardwick has yet to practice while rehabbing an injured ankle. Former 49er Jeremy Newberry will take his place until at least October, as Hardwick is expected to miss four games. That said, Newberry is being paced slowly; the 12 year vet’s knees are cartilage deficient.

The Cowboys will also miss three key Chargers skill-position players. WR Vincent Jackson played lights out week one, but strained a hamstring and has missed the last week. He’s out. So is Antonio Gates, who is rehabbing a surgically-repaired big toe and is aiming for the season opener.

Dallas will also miss LaDainian Tomlinson, who will be held out of every pre-season game, according to head coach Norv Turner. Tomlinson has nothing to prove and with the other injuries, Turner will not risk his biggest offensive weapon.

Rookie Watch

Where some Dallas bubble boys are working out:

– Danny Amemdola has been playing the slot, gunner on punt coverage teams, punt and kickoff returner.

– Alonzo Coleman has been playing RB, and coverage on punts and kickoff teams. The same is true for Keon Lattimore. They are both batting to be the 4th running back, if the Cowboys keep four.

– Erik Walden is backing up Demarcus Ware at WOLB and is on the coverage teams as well.

Trading Black Hats for White Ones — Or Not?

Duane Thomas once commented that the Dallas Cowboys have never won anything without controversy. Thomas of course generated his fair share of it, but he has a point. Let’s look at some of the Cowboys’ championship seasons and consider the distractions that accompanied each one:

1971 — 1970 Rookie of the Year Thomas is traded during the preseason, has his trade to New England reversed after a bustup with Pats’ coach John Mazur, returns and then plays the season without speaking to his teammates. Meanwhile, Tom Landry employs a quarterback rotation system, which craters in week seven when he alternates Roger Staubach and Craig Morton on each offensive play in an embarrassing loss to a bad Chicago Bears team.

The offense settles down after Staubach is named the starter and the Cowboys run the table.

1993 — The Cowboys have little time to celebrate their third title before Emmitt Smith and Jerry Jones stage a contract showdown. Smith holds out and Dallas stumbes into the season with two losses. The team settles down and swaggers through the playoffs, though it has to overcome several key injuries, namely Mark Stepnoski’s ACL tear, Smith’s separated shoulder and Troy Aikman’s concussion, which wipes out his memory of the Super Bowl.

Simmering beneath the surface is the rift between Jones and Jimmy Johnson, which erupts almost immediately after they accept their second Lombardi trophy. Jimmy clumsily dodges a question in the locker room about his readiness to pursue a third consecutive title and days later mocks Jones on The Tonight Show. The J.J.s part shortly thereafter.

1995 — Dallas pursues it’s third title of the Jones era with the widely-despised Barry Switzer at the helm. Jones picks a fight with the league over sponsorship deals and is served with a lawsuit during a league meeting. The Cowboys are ripped for “buying a title” after they outbid San Francisco for Deion Sanders’ services. The cries for Switzer’s dismissal peak after his two 4th-and-1 gambles fail in Philadelphia. When Dallas beats the Steelers in the Super Bowl the sighs of relief are as loud as the cheers.

It seems the Cowboys require discord to fuel their title runs. Perhaps that’s why the Terry Glenn tiff feels like home; I’d be far more worried if everything were hunky dory.

I think many Cowboys fans feel the same way. One character trait I’ve noticed in the three plus years of running this site is that the Cowboys nation cannot exist without creating villains on their own team.

Look at the Parcells years. Drew Bledsoe was always the instant scapegoat, even when losses were not directly his fault. More recently, Julius Jones served as a whipping boy for the fans.

Even today, with the Cowboys coming off a 13-3 season, there are several black hats riding in the posse. I give you the Cowboys you love to hate, ‘08 edition:

• Roy Williams
• Terry Glenn
• Marcus Spears
• Bobby Carpenter

and give you these potential baddies:

• Wade Phillips
• Tony Romo
• Anthony Henry
• Adam Jones
• Tank Johnson

a former black hat gone straight:

• Flozell Adams

and these wild cards:

• Greg Ellis
• Terrell Owens

Too much controversy? Too many loose cannons? From my perspective, the blend looks great. The Cowboys thrive on crazy and Jerry has done his best the past two years to raise the instability quotient. Outsiders may deride his gambles on T.O. and the former Pacman Jones but team history suggests he’s right where he needs to be.

Dallas May Be America’s Team…

but the Patriots are Hungary’s Team, dammit!

Check out this site.

It seems the Hungarians also love themselves some Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cowboys, based on visitors, are mid-pack.

Coming Attactions, Rock-Hard Performance Boosters and a Final Camp Pitch

– The NFL year is heading farther into the dead zone, with the coaches due to take their vacations before the camp grind begins. The team did release its camp schedule so we have a target. Workouts begin on July 25th, just four weeks from today.

We’re not slowing down here at BSR. I’m interviewing K.C. Joyner tonight and will publish his comments over the weekend. We’ll be talking about Adam Jones, the Cowboys secondary in general, T.O., possible second wideouts, Tony Romo and a host of other topics.

K.C. will also discuss Scientific Football 2008, which is about to be released, and a new cornerback tracking feature that his web site will feature this year. Check in for that.

We’re also going to talk about Cowboys fandom with the folks at Barry Switzer Ate My Hamster Too, better known as The Hamster, a U.K.-based Cowboys fanzine that’s been around since the mid ’90s. The lads will tell us what it’s like to root for the good team from almost half way around the globe. I wonder if they have any Page 3 girls for their fanzine? Hmmmm, I wonder if we can get some Page 3 girls for BSR!? (Page 3 Girls are a “feature” of The Sun, the biggest daily “red top” in England. Warning — may not be work safe.)

– They’re not just corking their bats any more — A few years ago, when Viagra was first introduced, an NBA official joked that “the league should test for a lot of drugs but if it really wants to scare the players, it should announce its testing for Viagra.”

Seems there might be something to that line. Sports officials now think the little blue pill might enhance on-field performance. The major sports leagues might just have to test for it after all — or put medicine jars full of them in every trainers room!

Viva Viagra indeed.

Finally — we’re in the home stretch of our fund drive. We’re at $1,835 now and are closing in on $2,000, which is the amount which would make it comfortable for me to cover all two initial weeks of camp. I’m closing the drive on Monday, so pitch in if you can and help us reach our goal.

A big thanks to the generous people who have already donated. We won’t let you down.

Cowboys vs. Giants 3.0 Preview

Two old rivals meet for the very first time in the playoffs Sunday as the Giants travel to Texas Stadium.

For all the hype about the Giants win over Tampa Bay and their near miss against the Patriots, lets understand one major point — the Bucs game is meaningless. The Bucs had one speed threat in Joey Galloway and when he went gimpy, the Giants played the run and the short zones. In the second half the corners played press coverage and the safeties were just five and six yards off the line of scrimmage.

Eight man fronts? No, try eleven man fronts. They wouldn’t dare try this against Dallas. The Cowboys would go over the top immediately.

The season opener is also meaningless. It was eighteen weeks ago. Jeremy Shockey played then. He won’t Sunday. Terence Newman didn’t play then but he will this time around.

The November rematch should provide the best picture of what the teams will try in the rubber game.

When The Giants Have the Ball

New York has relied more on the running game since Shockey broke his ankle in December. They’ll need to rely heavily on the run if they want to continue the ball control approach they used against Tampa Bay.

They can do this for two reasons. One, they used a similar short-pass, ball control approach in Giants Stadium. The Giants ran effectively on first and second down and then used Shockey as their primary passing weapon. He had 129 receiving yards in that game, out gaining the rest of the Giants receiving corps combined.

The Giants had their best success running at the edges of the Dallas 3-4. They preferred running to their right, to Marcus Spears’ side, though they had some success running left as well.

New York ran two seemingly different plays effectively that day. When they went right, they would set a strong formation that way and have the tight end block down on Spears while right tackle Kareem McKenzie would pull and go after the outside linebacker. The Giants fullback would lock on to the strong side linebacker and Brandon Jacobs had regular lanes that he exploited for five, six and seven yard gains.

When New York went right, they would load up to that side, but pull right guard Chris Snee off the weakside. The assignments were basically the same; New York used the lineman on each side — McKenzie and Snee, who are their best pullers. If the Giants succeed with these plays, they can give Eli Manning short downs on which to throw ball control.

And ball control is what the Giants have. Plaxico Burress went crazy in week one, but was quiet in the rematch when Newman tracked him all over the field. Expect Dallas to repeat this tactic. Burress is their lone deep threat and if Newman can contain him the Cowboys can rotate coverage towards Amani Toomer, who has been the only New York receiver to average more than six yards per reception since Shockey went down. The Giants will have to make do with backup Kevin Boss playing in Shockey’s role.

This matchup, as I mentioned early this week, will turn on first down. If the Giants are in second and short, they’ll move the ball. They had three drives of more than seven minutes in the rematch. If Dallas keeps the Giants in second and third and long, they’ll play their game.

When New York is in certain passing downs look for the Cowboys to blitz heavily up the middle, with Bradie James or Roy Williams coming into the pocket. The Giants were effective at keeping these two blitzers off of Manning, but Dallas won the strategic matchup. Manning wasn’t sacked but he didn’t have to be; whenever the Cowboys succeeded in making Manning slide laterally and throw on the move, his accuracy went way down. He’s at his best when he’s able to stand and deliver. Wade Phillips will try to limit these situations for him.

When Dallas Has the Ball

T.O.’s back. And that makes a huge difference. He was THE focus of the Giants secondary in game two. Whenever he lined up in the slot he was guaranteed double coverage and sometimes triple coverage.

Owens was most effective lining up outside, because the blitz-heavy Giants like to play their safeties closer to the field. This made it harder to give help over the top on first and second downs. The Giants tried matching Sam Madison on him and Owens simply out muscled him and later outraced him for a touchdown. Look for Dallas to throw his way early if Tony Romo sees tight coverage.

Madison is injured so the Giants may play looser coverage, in order to give their backups some help against him.

Patrick Crayton ended up being the early star in game two, working the middle on crossing routes and stops against the linebackers and safeties. Dallas may also look at backup Anthony Fasano for first downs in order to shift attention away from Owens and from Jason Witten.

The ‘06 Cowboys used Julius Jones as a down the field weapons in situations like these, going to an open set. The ‘07 Cowboys rarely go four or five wide, but we could see Jones working up field on wheel routes to take his crack at the soft middle defenders in the Giants’ secondary.

New York has a choice to make. Will they double Owens and Witten or will they blitz? Their line has been poor at pressuring Romo with just four men. Osi Umenyiora, as Paul Zimmerman noted, has been nullified by Flozell Adams this year. The Cowboys have been able to give tight end and running back chip help to RT Marc Colombo in his matchup against Michael Strahan because Adams can handle Umenyiora alone.

For this reason the Giants have had to bring heavy pressure to help their ends. Dallas has been very good this year at anticipating the blitzes and getting Witten, Owens and Crayton open on crossing routes.

When Dallas runs, they’ll likely go more to their right, where Strahan looks vulnerable. He’s very good at tracking plays down from behind but is not so good when teams go right at him.

Prediction:

Dallas has attacked the Giants in the air in both games. They’ve averaged 38 points. I see no reason for them to back off. The Giants will play the other way, trying to go ball control. They’re not one dimensional, but they’re far less effective throwing the ball without Shockey.

Dallas 31, New York 17

– A reminder to cast your vote for this site in the Bloggies Awards.

Cowboys vs. Giants 3.0, Part Two — The Battle of First Down

The Giants are getting a lot of love from some pundits, who feel they’ve turned a corner after their near upset of New England and their solid win over Tampa Bay. They do have a chance to beat the Cowboys Sunday afternoon, but that will depend not so much on Eli Manning, the Giant receiving all the ink, but on RB Brandon Jacobs and on the Giants offensive line.

In week one, Manning had a huge passing game. His starting receivers, Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer, went crazy. Toomer caught 9 passes for 91 yards and Burress hit the Cowboys’ corners for 144 yards on eight catches. Three of those receptions were for touchdowns. Burress was an equal opportunity abuser, beating Anthony Henry for 60 yards on the game’s second play from scrimmage. He later caught two TDs on Jacques Reeves.

Dallas clamped down the receivers in game two — Burress and Toomer combined for only seven catches for 61 yards. That strategy opened the middle of the field for Jeremy Shockey, who burned Roy Williams and friends for 12 catches and 129 yards.

Shockey broke his ankle late in the season and will miss the game. In his absence, New York has gone to a three receiver look a lot more, utilizing rookie WR Steve Smith. The Giants have had mixed success; both Smith and Burress had yards per attempt averages of 5.8 and 5.2 respectively the last month of the season, according to K.C. Joyner. Those are poor marks and were only offset by Toomer’s very good 10.8 YPA.

The Giants, in short, have become a dink and dunk team. Burress has played the entire season on a bad ankle and seems to have lost his deep gear. For this reason, and because Shockey is out, I look for Dallas to use the same game plan they used in November — take Toomer and Burress away and force the Giants to beat them with Smith and new TE Kevin Boss.

New York can win this way — provided it can run effectively on first and second down. The Giants were very good on the ground in both Dallas games. In week one, they averaged 6.0 yards per carry. In the rematch, Brandon Jacobs ran 24 times for 95 yards, one short of a neat 4.0 average.

This game, from Dallas’ perspective, will be won or lost on first down. If the Cowboys can shut down the Giants run — a task that’s easier said than done — and leave the Giants in second and long and third and long, they can pressure Manning. If Jacobs is ripping off four and five yard runs and the Giants find themselves in second and five or less, then OC Kevin Gilbride can continue calling the short, timing plays that Manning executed so well against the Bucs.

Cowboys vs. Giants 3.0 — The Middle is always open

Here’s a quick game analysis to take your mind off the “the media doesn’t respect us” and “Eli Manning is transmogrifying into Johnny Unitas before our very eyes” memes that are already corrupting the Cowboys/Giants buildup.

Forget all those angles. There’s a trend that the Giants backers have to account for, one that remains in Dallas’ favor.

I’m talking about New York’s weak linebacker and safety coverage.

In the lead up to Cowboys/Giants 2.0 in the Meadowlands, we heard a lot of hot air about the improved play of New York’s defense, and how they were a different unit now, and how their healthy ends Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan were going to expose Tony Romo as a fraud.

Let’s look at little closer at the results:

Scores:

• Dallas 45, New York 35
• Dallas 31, New York 20

Okay, the Giants were fourteen points better at defending Dallas in the rematch, but the Cowboys were fifteen points better.

Let’s look a little closer still:

• Romo, game one: 15-24, 345 yds. 4 TDs, 1 Int., sacked once for a 9 yard loss.
• Romo, game two: 20-28, 247 yds. 4 TDs, 1 Int., sacked once for a 4 yard loss.

Funny, but I don’t see any evidence of a Giants rush in either game. Which brings me to my third point:

• Cowboys’ TEs and RBs, game one: 8 catches for 156 yards;
• Cowboys’ TEs and RBs, game two: 5 catches for 11 yards;

In the initial shootout, the Giants could not cover Jason Witten, who finished with 6 catches for 116 yards. Nor could they stop Marion Barber and Julius Jones, who combined for two catches for 40 yards. The Giants focused on shutting down Terrell Owens, who didn’t catch a ball until the second half, but were consistently gashed in the deep and intermediate middle of the field. Witten and the backs had a 19.5 yards per reception average. That will get you killed.

Fast forward to game two. The Giants learned their lesson, clamping down on Witten. And they put bracket coverage on T.O. and baited Romo into a pick in the second quarter, when they took a 14-10 lead.

But Dallas adjusted. Jason Garrett began calling plays for Patrick Crayton in the middle of the field. He converted a few key third downs motioning into the slot and running past Giants linebackers and safeties. Crayton caught a TD just before the half when he beat Aaron Ross on a slant and walked in for the score because the Giants had rushed eight men.

In the second half, Garrett broke the game open by moving T.O. to the slot and matching him on a safety. The 50 yard TD bomb provided the final margin of victory.

Whether it’s with tight ends, back or receviers, Dallas has killed New York in the middle of the field. The New York linebackers are suspect in coverage and while Gibril Wilson makes plays, the Giants safeties can also be burned. Look at what another top tier offense did two weeks ago:

• Wes Welker — 11 catches, 122 yards;
• Kevin Faulk — 8 catches, 64 yards;
• Randy Moss — 6 catches, 100 yards;

The Giants took a similar approach to the Eagles, who slowed the Pats down by doubling Moss and forcing Tom Brady to find other targets. The strategy should not surprise; Eagles DC Jim Johnson was Giants DC Steve Spagnuolo’s mentor. And the first part of the game plan worked. Through three quarters, Moss had only 30 yards receiving.

However, the New York secondary was unable to stop Welker or Faulk. Faulk made two key fourth quarter plays, gaining 10 yards on a 3rd-and-9 to keep a Pats scoring drive alive and then gaining 13 on a third-and-11, when he caught a pass at seven yards and beat poor linebacker tackling to gain the final six yards.

Moss finally came alive early in the 4th when New York increased their pressure on Brady, giving him single coverage. Moss immediately got behind the New York secondary.

The middle is always open, if you have the weapons to pressure the Giants’ coverage. Tampa Bay could not. First, they had the poorest offensive line I’ve seen on a playoff team in a long time. New York regularly pressured Jeff Garcia up the middle and regularly got one and sometimes two men through untouched. That never happened when Dallas faced the Giants; New York sacked Romo only twice this year.

Secondly, whom did Tampa have at the tight end and running backs positions who could distress the Giants’ coverage? Earnest Graham, Alex Smith and Jerramy Stevens don’t match up to Jason Witten and Marion Barber.

So long as Terrell Owens plays, and he practiced today, the Cowboys can create matchup problems for New York at all levels in the center of the field.

Cowboys @ Panthers Preview

Can Dallas bounce back? Is Tony Romo’s thumb well? We’ll find out a day early when the Cowboys travel to Carolina Saturday night. Find your local sports bar or your buddy with satellite programming. This one’s on the NFL Network, as the Packers game was.

When Carolina Has The Ball

Cowboys’ castoff Matt Moore will make his second career start against his old team. When I saw him in camp, I saw a guy with a strong arm, sure delivery but some softness to his accuracy. His first start against Seattle was typical of a first time starter’s game.

Carolina called about a 55/45% run-pass mix. So option one will be stopping the run. The Panthers don’t want to put the game on Moore’s shoulders, so the Cowboys should expect some heavy running on first and second downs. The Panthers are using a platoon system similar to the Cowboys’ with D’Angelo Williams and Deshaun Foster splitting the carries.

The Cowboys, as we know, play better in pursuit. The Lions and the Eagles have had some success running zone blocking plays at the Cowboys triad of Jay Ratliff, Akin Ayodele and Bradie James. The ILBs in particular have had some difficulty disengating from guards when the action comes right at them.

A key to stopping inside runs will be Keith Davis. He’s getting the start at SS in place of suspended Roy Williams, as the Cowboys are leaving Ken Hamlin at FS. This seems like a smart move. Replacing Hamlin leaves Dallas at risk of giving up the big play, something they have avoided for the most part this year. What’s more, Davis is far better in run support than he is as a cover guy. He’s a smaller version of Roy Williams, so SS plays to his strengths.

Another reason to leave Hamlin deep is that Carolina throws almost exclusively to its wide receivers. It lacks a real tight end threat and Moore only uses his backs as a last resort. The key to stopping the Panthers passing attack is simple — slow down Steve Smith. In years past, Dallas would put Terence Newman on Smith and give him help over the top. I look for more of the same tomorrow.

Take away Moore’s primary and force him to go through his progressions and the Cowboys will have opportunties to sack him or force errant throws. He’s smart, but he’s not the most mobile guy. Dallas used a lot of press coverage against Donovan McNabb last week and I look for more pressure.

When the Cowboys Have the Ball

Run it, boys. Seattle got in trouble last week by abandoning the run, giving only 11 carries to Shawn Alexander and friends, while giving Matt Hasselbeck 41 attempts. Sound familiar? Look at the play scripts from the Eagles’ loss. Too many throws by a sore-thumbed Romo and not enough attempts for Marion Barber and Julius Jones.

The reasons are understandable. Jason Garrett’s calls were getting guys open — repeatedly. Tony Romo simply could not make the throws he has all year. Dallas had multiple opportunties for a quick strike but could not excute.

We may see a more deliberate approach this week because the Panthers are not a heavy blitzing team. When healthy they rely on their front four to generate a rush and play a lot of zone behind it.

This could mean a replay of the Lions play sheet, when Romo made heavy use of his tight ends and backs as targets, as the Lions worked to take Terrell Owens’ big plays away. The Panthers don’t score a lot so they cannot get into a shootout with the Cowboys. A bend-bit-don’t-break approach will likely be Carolina’s.

Romo can eat up opponents who try this — if he’s healthy. I’ve seen very little on his thumb. If he opens spraying the ball, as he did last week, we could be in for a long evening.

Prediction:

The Panthers are 2-6 in their last eight games. They’ve topped 13 points just twice in that span, once when they scored 17 points in a 31-17 loss to Green Bay and 31 in a blowout win over the 49ers. They’re averaging 12.5 points since their bye.

Carolina does not score points. The Cowboys defense should be able to contain them. Carolina’s hope of winning will hinge on holding Dallas well under their season total. The Panthers held the Seahawks down last week and upset them 13-10. With Tony Romo’s thumb out of sorts, this is a concern. Carolina has a good defense and can hold an opponent down at home.

It does appear, however, that Julius Peppers will not play, and will not be near full strength if he manages to make the field.

Romo had his choice of receivers last week. It was not a matter of finding open targets, but of getting them the ball. The Panthers are not a big blitzing team and I think that Romo will get the time he needs to make his throws.

Don’t be surprised if the game is close at half of even after three quarters. Dallas blew open a one point game last year in the 4th and cruised to to 35-14 win. We could be looking at another such game on a short week.

Dallas 27 — Carolina 13

Cowboys vs. Eagles Preview

Round Two between the divisional rivals when the Cowboys host the Eagles this Sunday in the national game. The teams have gone in opposite directions since they met in early November. Dallas’ win over Philly that Sunday night propelled them to a three game romp through the division and was the second in a now seven game winning streak.

The Eagles appeared to have recovered the Dallas loss with two wins that put them at 5-5, but have lost three close games since to drop to 5-8.

Is this the week the Eagles give it up, or will they continue to fight?

When Dallas Has the Ball

The offensive line was the key to Dallas first win, holding the Eagles’ blitz at bay and running over them in the second half. Flozell Adams led the line, shutting out then NFC sack leader Trent Cole. The Cowboys chipped Cole then ran at him.

When Jim Johnson’s linemen broke through, Tony Romo had the mobility to evade them and break the pressure with a series of dumpoffs to Julius Jones and Marion Barber.

Dallas was able to effectively counter the pressure through the air and on the ground. The Eagles game was one of the first to feature that Cowboys bunch toss, which ran to such great effect last week in Detroit. Catching a team bringing heavy inside pressure with a flanking run can produce big plays, so look for the toss some more this week.

Dallas also broke the Eagle’s double coverage on Terrell Owens by using lots of slot packages and three receiver sets with Owens inside. This made it harder for the Eagles to bracket Owens as they had in the ‘06 meetings. The Eagles did not play matchup all the time and Owens made some big plays working against third corners. Don’t expect Johnson to make the same mistake twice. Lito Sheppard or Sheldon Brown will be on him this week, no matter where he goes. The Eagles were able to do something similar to Randy Moss in their near upset of New England three weeks ago and I don’t think they’ll let T.O. rip them up again.

It come down to Romo to use Jason Witten, he of the helmetless run in the first game, and some other receiving weapons, eat least early on. Last year, the Eagles tried to frustrate Owens and succeeded. This year, Romo showed he could beat their pressure to secondary targets and found Owens more and more as the game progressed.

When Philadelphia Has the Ball

In game one, the Eagles had early success throwing at Jacques Reeves. Reggie Brown beat him for a big play, which set up an Eagles’ TD. Terence Newman is ailing this week, so Reeves may be manning the left corner spot again. Look for Philly to to there immediately if he is.

On the other side, Anthony Henry is slowly rounding back into form. The Eagles tried beating him with double moves last year, which bedeviled young Pat Watkins. Those combos are harder this year, with Ken Hamlin manning the deep center. He got a pick in the first matchup and has made deep throws much harder to complete.

The key to game one was steady Dallas pressure. Demarcus Ware got a strip on Dallas’ opening play and the Cowboys were off to a quick start. He and Greg Ellis and Chris Canty will look to get into whichever Eagles’ QB’s face.

The key to beating the Eagles is always containing Brian Westbrook. The Cowboys contained him in Philly. He got 155 yards rushing and receiving, but needed 30 touches to amass that. Bradie James was most responsible for identifying and snuffing out his trademark screens.

Overall

There are not many secrets between these teams.  The difference the first time around was that Dallas simply overmatched the Eagles, on both lines of scrimmage.

I think the Eagles will still bring their A game and feel this could be a dangerous matchup.  Philly owned this rivalry until recently and they cannot be happy thinking it’s slipping in Dallas’ favor.  They can move the ball on Dallas and if the Cowboys don’t respond with their top play, this could be another long day.

On the other hand, who knows how the Eagles will respond to their near elimination.  The best they can finish is 8-8.  There are rumors that Donovan McNabb could be traded this coming offseason and we may be seeing them begin preparations for 2008.

I look for a rugged game.  I’ll be very happy to be wrong.

Dallas 28, Philadelphia 21

Cowboys @ Lions Preview

Two teams moving in opposite directions meet Sunday when Dallas travels to Detroit. The Cowboys are taking the field for the first time after assuming the NFC lead with a win over Green Bay. The Lions are trying to right their season after a four game losing streak dropped them from 6-2 to 6-6.

When Detroit Has the Ball

Mike Martz believes in playing without a net. The Lions OC runs the same offense the Cowboys do, the Sid Gillman-Don Coryell-Ernie Zampete-Norv Turner-Jason Garrett system. Only Martz runs it full throttle — all the time. He wants to go down the field on every down. He wants to spread opponents and work every segment of the field. This requires a fearless QB, because Martz will eschew protection schemes to put the maximum stress on a back seven.

When he was with the Rams he had three great receivers and an all-world RB in Marshall Faulk and a blue-chip QB in Kurt Warner. He also had a veteran offensive line anchored by Orlando Pace that could protect without much support.

Martz lacks that talent in Detroit but makes no concessions. As a result he has an offense that can be explosive at times but awful at others. The Lions line does not have blue chip tackles and has had to shuffle personnel around. As a result it has given up 51 sacks already this year. What’s more, Martz has eschewed the run; Detroit has the league’s worst running attack. That puts even more pressure on QB Jon Kitna, who has completed a remarkable 66 percent of his passes despite the weekly beatings.

The one-dimensional nature of the attack plays into Dallas’ hands. The Cowboys will likely employ more of the 4-1-6 scheme that bottled up Green Bay’s deep attack. Kevin Burnett has found his niche as a cover linebacker in this scheme. Dallas has been using their best rushers in this scheme with Demarcus Ware, Greg Ellis at ends — and sometimes with Ellis inside. The Cowboys are rotating linemen and could break the Lions down, as Green Bay did on Thanksgiving Day with their rotation.

Dallas’ pass rush has gotten slowly better the past month and this might be the breakout game.

If Dallas is in this package, look for lots of blitzing from corners in the slot. Nate Jones has been very good at this all year, sacking Tom Brady in the Pats game and knocking Brett Favre out of the Packers game. Terence Newman will probably get some reps out of this package as well. He’s come close to some sacks this year but has never closed the sale. The Lions will be without stat WR Roy Williams, so Newman might get to freelance a bit more this week.

The Lions will have to play rookie Calvin Johnson be default but he’s been benched the past few weeks, so it will be on Mike Furrey to lead the attack.

When Dallas Has the Ball

The Lions looked to be rising when then pinned a 44-7 home win on the Broncos a month ago. Then, the lazy gene kicked in. Players like Shaun Rogers, who have top talent, started believing their clippings and the Lions D has faltered. They’ve given up 31 or more points in three of the four losses and are averaging 31 points allowed in that span.

Detroit plays a Tampa style cover-2.  As we saw earlier this year versus Chicago, which runs the same scheme, the Cowboys approach is pass first, run second.  Expect them to do so this week as well, because the Lions have the 31st rated passing defense.

The scheme depends on taking away your deep passes, especially to the flanks.  Dallas beat Chicago two ways. First, they used Jason Witten on deep routes in the seams and then to the sidelines.  The cover-2 relies on rotation to the sidelines to lock up the receives.   Jason Garrett knew Witten would be matched up on linebackers and let him outrun them upfield.

Witten became the outside threat and Terrell Owens became the inside threat.  Look for T.O. to motion into the middle yet again and run intermediate and deep routes on safeties and middle linebackers.  He has feasted on New York’s, Washington’s, Philly’s and Green Bay’s secondaries of late doing this.  Detroit’s is the worst he’ll face in his run.

Detroit’s run defense ranks 15th, though that’s probably because teams are so successful passing that they continue to throw.  Look again for Julius Jones early and a heavy fourth quarter dose of Marion Barber once the linemen are gassed from chasing Tony Romo for three quarters.

Prediction:

Every other NFC East team has beaten the Lions up.  And Dallas is the biggest, most physical team of the group.  I look for Romo to come out firing.  An early Dallas lead could make for a long Detroit day.

Dallas 38, Detroit 21.

Cowboys vs. Packers Preview

10-1 vs. 10-1. Think the NFL Network is happy?

When the Packers Have the Ball

Brett Favre took a sip from the fountain of youth this offseason. Or maybe having more talent around him has calmed him and curbed the bad decision machine we’ve seen in recent years.

The Packers have undergone a conversion in the past few years. Under Mike Sherman they had one of the best, most experienced offensive lines in the game and used Ahman Green to wear opponents out. The line was ripped up by age and free agency — guards Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera both left after ‘04.

The offensive overhaul began last year when the Packers force fed young guards Jason Spitz and Darren Colledge into the lineup, with veteran tackles Kyle Clifton and Mark Tauscher. The kids integrated themselves quickly and shored up the Packers protection.

Green Bay also rebuilt the receiving corps on the fly, teaming youngsters Greg Jennings and James Jones with veteran standout Donald Driver. Driver has thrived with quality help, posting over 800 yards so far. The Packers struggled badly early in the year but have jump-started their running game the past month, with Ryan Grant posting a 4.7 yard average, with teams so concerned with the Packers passing attack.

Green Bay alternates spread formations with four and five receiver sets with two tight end sets; they have a diamond-like formation, with the fullback and tight end each lining up behind each tackle with Grant as the lone back. The Packers have balance and try to break cutback runs off this package, as Grant has the quickness to break runs outside to the backside should an opponent over-pursue.

Dallas will likely play pass first, using a lot of the 3-3-5 package they unveiled against the Jets. They’ll have to tackle well, as the Packers like to run lots of flanker screens and smoke routes.

We’ll also see if the Cowboys will pounce on the Packers inside routes; Green Bay runs slants more than any other team in the game. Teams have been wary of overplaying these routes as the Packers’ WRs have the speed to get upfield if a corner is cheating inside. Look for Terence Newman to lock on to Driver, in an attempt to take Favre’s favorite option away.

When Dallas Has the Ball

The Cowboys offense has been the most potent this side of New England, but they’re facing a quality defense this week. The Packers have been a top ten scoring defense all year and rank 6th right now.

That’s a huge step up from a unit that ranked 20th in ‘05 and 25th in ‘06 in scoring. Green Bay’s turnaround there began with two key veteran signings. Green Bay paired CB Charles Woodson with Al Harris and got immediate quality corner play. The Packers also stole DT Ryan Pickett from the Rams. Pickett anchors the Pack’s run defense. The Packers also made a key philosophical adjustment, taking DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila off the field on run downs in favor of the much bigger Cullen Jenkins. KGB is a feared rusher, but teams were running him over with running plays.

Green Bay also made the most of their top ten pick, adding A.J. Hawk to a linebacking corps that already sports MLB Nick Barnett. The Packers have improved significantly at every level the past couple of years and now are a top level defense.

Dallas is also a pass first team and the key matchup will be keeping 11 sack LE Aaron Kampman under control. The Packers don’t blitz much and Tony Romo will have time to get the ball downfield if his protection holds.

Green Bay plays a lot of man coverage and that will have Terrell Owens and Jason Witten smiling.  Dallas loves to send their tight end up the field and will try to do so again tomorrow.  The Packers are strong overall but give up a lot of yards on throwing plays.

I would not be surprised if the Cowboys give Green Bay some of their medicine, spreading the field early to throw and then hammering with the Jones/Barber duo later.

Overall:

Fasten your chinstraps. This should be a wild, open game. And I’m not at all certain Dallas will win it. The game will come down to matchups and in my opinion everything rides on Anthony Henry’s ankle. The Packers are the team most able to attack Dallas the same way that New England did.

The Cowboys missed Henry badly in that game, as the Pats abused Nate Jones over and over. Henry has played lately but does not looked fully healthy.

I’m going to offer a qualified return. A sound Henry will see a four point Dallas win. If he’s gimpy, I’m giving it to the Pack by a point.

Cowboys vs. Redskins Preview

Dallas finally gets its first crack at the Redskins this Sunday. Washington is wobbly, losing two of its last three and winning the third in overtime. Dallas, on the other hand, has a chance to complete a sweep of the division if it defends its home turf.

When Washington Has the Ball

The Redskins suffered a rash of injuries to their offensive line early this year and made some hasty roster moves to overcome them. Washington signed Jason Fabini off waivers and traded with the Jets for disgruntled G Pete Kendall. These moves have saved the team, as Kendall has filled the left guard spot and Fabini has manned RG, allowing Todd Wade to slide wide to RT.

They and veterans Chris Samuels (LT) and Casey Rabach (C) are the foundation for the offense and the main reason I am wary of this game. They have gelled in recent weeks, allowing Clinton Portis to run for over 360 yards the past two weeks. They also form a stout pass pocket, allowing young Jason Campbell the time to execute play action passes and pick apart the short and intermediate zones.

Washington’s receivers have had a poor ‘07 as a group, catching their first TD passes of the season against Philadelphia. They came to life because the ‘Skins running game was so effective. Washington likes to run left, behind Samuels and Kendall. Samuels’ matchup with Cowboys RDE Chris Canty will be a bellwether for the Cowboys’ D. Canty is on a fast track to stardom. He’s become a rock against runs and has started to show some push and slaloming skills as a pass rusher.

Former Chiefs OC Al Saunders calls the Redskins plays but you won’t see the sweeps and tosses that Larry Johnson used to effectively against the Cowboys two years ago. Kendall and Fabini don’t run well in space so Washington uses a lot of zone blocking, using their bulk and smarts to create running lanes for Portis. Portis does get to the corner quickly, so the Dallas OLBs will have to play tough on the corners. If Demarcus Ware and Greg Ellis can hold the perimeters, Dallas should be able to tee off on Campbell.

That’s if they can hold their ground.

Saunders and Joe Gibbs run fairly simple game plans for Campbell. Run first, keep the linebackers honest, then hit the flats and intermediate zones behind them once they begin to favor the run. Washington does not show a deep threat. Antwaan Randle-El averages over 16 yards per reception but has only 32 catches this year. The bigger disappointment has been Santana Moss, who does not have even 300 yard receiving. Consider that Terrell Owens has more receiving yards (855 to 820) and TDs (8 to 0) than Randle-El and Moss combined.

The run sets up Campbell’s passing game, which consists of Chris Cooley working the short zones and lots of short crossing routes and passes to the flanks. Portis has put Campbell in a lot of second and short situations lately, which make these passes very effective.

Consider that the Philly game plan is exactly the one Washington used with great effect against Dallas last November in their 22-19 win. Gibbs put the Cowboys’ linebackers on oscillating cycle, pulling them to the line to stop Portis, then throwing over and between them.

First down will be key this week. If Dallas can slow Portis and put the Redskins in second and longs, they’ll control the game. Otherwise, the Redskins could rack up time of possession, as they did against the Eagles.

When Dallas Has the Ball

Gregg Williams is a fine coordinator and he was able to rebuild his secondary over the offseason, which allowed him to play more man to man and blitz more often, a tonic to his weak front that ranked among the league worst in sack totals last year.

His defense keyed the team’s 4-2 start but was hobbled by injuries to CBs Carlos Rogers and Fred Smoot against New England in a 52-7 blowout. Washington had the Eagles under wraps for three quarters until S Sean Taylor had to leave the game. Philly scored four second half TDs, two on long pass plays in the middle of the field against Taylor’s backup Pierson Priolieu.

Williams did not back off blitzing against opponents after his secondary was wiped out. He knows his team does not generate a consistent rush with four men. Therefore, look for more Redskins blitzes this week.

On the flip side, don’t be surprised if the Cowboys don’t come out winging the ball, as they did against the Giants last week.  Dallas did use a lot of two TE, two RB sets early to set up play action later, but with Taylor out, I see no need to wait.  I expect we’ll see lots of three WR and two TE sets on early downs with Tony Romo going vertical, looking for an early lead.  Dallas has scored on its opening drive in both games since the bye and I see no reason why they will back off this week, being at home.

Prediction:

Can the Cowboys slow Clinton Portis down?  If they can, they can make this an early afternoon.  Washington’s defense has surrendered 105 points the last three games, exactly 35 per.  That’s just above Dallas average of 34 points per game.   I don’t see a problem for Dallas moving the ball or scoring points, so long as the turnover bug stays away.

If Portis gets untracked, the Redskins can play keep away and stay close.

I see Dallas hitting its average, but having to wait a little to get there.

Cowboys 35, Redskins 17

Cowboys @ Giants Preview

The rematch is here, with first place in the NFC East at stake and a shot at home field advantage. Dallas can put the division down with a win, which would give them a New York sweep.

When New York has the Ball

Giants OC Kevin Gilbride was a run-and-shoot disciple, leading Warren Moon and the Oilers in this scheme. In week one, he used some three receiver packages that used basic run and shoot principles in more conventional sets. One base package for the run and shoot put three receivers on one side of the field and one split alone on the opposite side, with a single back behind the QB.

In the opener, New York would put two receivers and TE Jeremy Shockey on one side of the field and isolate Plaxico Burress on the opposite side, usually against LCB Jacques Reeves, though he had his biggest plays against RCB Anthony Henry.

Gilbride also tweaked the package putting Burress in the slot and splitting Shockey wide, where he got soft single coverage against SS Roy Williams.

Dallas’ key will be keeping Burress in check. This week look for CB Terence Newman to shadow Burress everywhere he goes. The Cowboys have downplayed Anthony Henry’s availability but he played a lot last week and I would not be suprised to see him play extensively this week.

I don’t look for anything radical from the Cowboys. They’ve been staying with their defense and it has slowly been improving week by week, especially at pass rushing and on preventing big plays.

The bigger concern this week is keeping New York’s run game in check. The Cowboys have been strong against the run all year but the Giants gashed them with big runs in the first matchup, especially up the middle where Akin Ayodele and Bradie James had a hard time containing Brandon Jacobs and Dedrick Ward. Dallas had to go four quarters with Jay Ratliff, who filled in for the injured Jason Ferguson. Ratliff has been a pleasant surprise and this week he’ll get some experienced support from Tank Johnson, who can finally play after his suspension.

When Dallas Has the Ball

Jason Garrett played some spread formation football of his own in week one, ripping the Giants defense by going three wide and flexing out TE Jason Witten, giving New York a four WR look many times. Witten was isolated in space on LB Mathius Kiwanuka and the converted DE didn’t have a chance. The Giants finally started using safeties to stop Witten, but this only left them vulnerable to man coverage on the corners; Sam Hurd took a short slant for 59 yards to seal the game because he was free once he beat the short coverage.

Against Philly, Garrett made minor adjustments. He kept sending Witten deep, up the seams and on deep crosses and outs. With Witten keeping the safeties busy, he lined up Terrell Owens in the slot, either in base slot formations (where two WRs set opposite the TE with two backs in the backfield) or in three WR sets. This gave Owens single coverage in the shallow zones and he went crazy catching short passes and running for extensive yardage.

Owens also beat bracket coverage with some well executed slants and post-corner routes. Tony Romo is money on all passes in the intermediate ranges and to the sidelines and he made his throws, finishing 20-of-25 for the night.

The Giants bring lots of heat off the slots, with corners and with linebacker overloads. Garrett always has one option short as a hot option for Romo when these blitzes come. In week one Romo beat a corner blitz off Patrick Crayton in the slot for a 15 yard gain just before the half. Last week, Dallas ran the same play early in the 3rd quarter and got a long TD pass to Owens when the safety turned the wrong way and left him free in the middle of the field.

Also look for the Dallas running backs to keep getting the football. Dallas has been throwing a lot more to Julius Jones and Marion Barber since the Buffalo game and they’re getting huge gains on delayed routes, after chipping DEs.

Also look for Dallas to continue attacking the perimeter. Both Witten and Anthony Fasano have taken quantum leaps forward as blockers and both can seal DEs on the edges. As a result, Dallas has finally unearthed the overload toss they ran so much in preseason. Garrett called it twice against the Eagles last week; Barber took one toss for 17 yards and Jones ran the other for 15. If Dallas can catch the Giants in a run blitz and flank it with this play, one of these guys could go the distance.

Prediction:

The Giants are a better team than the Eagles but I see a similar matchup for Dallas. The Cowboys are comfortable playing against New York’s defensive scheme. I’ve reviewed the season opener and last week’s Eagles game and Jason Garrett and Tony Sparano had their guys utterly prepared for the blitzes. The protection was superb. When one team did get a linebacker or corner free on an overload Dallas had a hot read available. Tony Romo’s elusiveness helps, but its no fluke that Dallas has scored 41.5 points against these two defenses this year.

The scoring will be lower. It’s November. It’s New York. It will be cold. And the tackling will be better than week one, when both teams were awful.

It comes down the evolution. The Cowboys pass rush has taken a step forward since Greg Ellis returned. They had Donovan McNabb on the run last week. Eli Manning has a better protecting line but he’s also less mobile, so Dallas should get some sacks.

On the other side of the ball, the Giants can win if their front four, especially their ends, can get a rush without blitz help. They’re capable, but Flozell Adams just put Trent Cole in a box. Osi Umenyiora has eight sacks this season, but six of them came against Eagles’ scrub Winston Justice. Michael Strahan will need a huge game against Marc Colombo to give the Giants a shot.

Nobody but the Cowboys offense has slowed the Dallas offense this year. Unless the turnovers return, I don’t see it happening this week.

Dallas 31, New York 21

Cowboys @ Eagles Preview

The old rivals finally meet this year when Dallas goes to Philadelphia for the teams third Sunday night game of the still-young season.

When Dallas Has the Ball

The Eagles beat Dallas twice last year using a fairly basic game plan. They double-teamed Terrell Owens, frustrating him and used a lot of stunting and twisting off four man rushes to frustrate Drew Bledsoe. In the second game, they saw that Tony Romo was even more dependent on Owens than Bledsoe and kept him off balance by taking his primary away. The Eagles then stopped Dallas with a goal line stand and played keep away the rest of the way, hammering the ball for over 200 yards on the ground.

The Cowboys played a version of the stunting, blitzing Jim Johnson scheme in week one. Then the Giants tried hitting Dallas with a lot of early blitzes off the edges. On third and long situations the Giants would line up in a 4-2-5 nickel, fake rushes by the linebackers and then bring corners and safeties off the slot.

Dallas destroyed these blitzes by stretching the field laterally and isolating Jason Witten on Giants linebackers.

Johnson does not blitz his secondary as much, preferring to bring linebackers. That said I think his approach will mirror last years — take Owens away and force Dallas to march methodically down the field on short and intermediate throws.

The Cowboys have shown the last two weeks that they can move the ball effectively this way, though they have shown a maddening tendency to bog down inside an opponents red zone, with turnovers being the main culprit.

When the Eagles go with their standard package the primary matchup to watch will be Eagles RE Trent Cole vs. LT Flozell Adams. The Eagles have 24 sacks on the year and Cole has 11 of them. Expect Adams to get lots of chip help from TEs and RBs to slow Cole down.

Also look for Dallas to attack through the air. The book on the Eagles in recent years was to hammer inside on them but they’ve become much more stout this season. Dallas will try hammering at the Eagles — they try this on everyone — but Jason Garrett’s tactics of late have been to throw first and run later. Since the Eagles have more trouble stopping the pass than the run, I look for this strategy to continue.

When Romo does throw look for a more Eagles-like approach, something we saw against New England and Minnesota — throw a lot more to running backs, fullbacks and tight ends. Against New York, Garrett showed a lot of three WR sets and would send backs in motion. If the Eagles want to double Owens in these situations or blitz, Dallas will get one on one matchups and should be able to exploit them, especially in the middle of the field.

When Philadelphia Has the Ball

This week should offer the chance to see the Dallas defense at full strength for the first time this year. CB Anthony Henry is practicing again and Greg Ellis has shown that he still knows how to reach the passer.

Dallas will face an Eagles offense that is rounding back to health. Philadelphia was crippled by line injuries, most notably LT William Thomas’ leg injury. TE L.J. Smith has been the only holdout the last couple of weeks and his return would give the Eagles a full deck.

Some things never change, however and this is Brian Westbrook’s team. He’s the teams leading rusher and leading receiver. The Eagles love the screen and it will a challenge for Dallas not to get caught out of position, as Wade Phillips loves to blitz 5 men as a default.

The Eagles passing game is okay, but lacks the consistent firepower to really scare an opponent. Kevin Curtis has provided a deep threat to complement Reggie Brown, but almost 40% of his 582 receiving yards came in one game. The Cowboys have been good at preventing the deep pass this year and if Curtis does not break free for a 60 yard bomb the Eagles will have to grind downfield in methodical fashion as well, which will give the rush more chances to force a Donovan McNabb miscue.

Summary:

The Eagles are only 1-2 at home this year. They’ve only topped 16 points twice this campaign. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have yet to be held to less than 24 in a game.  Philly’s last home match saw Brian Griese rip them for 333 yards.  He drove his Bears 90+ yards in the final moments for the win.  That’s not the type of Eagles game we’ve seen in recent years.  Philadelphia is a slow starting team, but we’re at the halfway point now.  I think some trends are starting to harden.

Turnovers will again tell the tale. If Dallas holds on to the football, they’ll have an excellent chance to keep their mojo working. If they handle it the way they did against Minnesota, we’ll all have a frustrating evening. Nobody this side of New England has derailed the Cowboys yet, so while I’m wary of the Eagles and playing in their park, I’m sticking with the streaks:

Dallas 24, Philadelphia 16.

Cowboys vs. Vikings Preview

What good is a bye? Did the Vikings retool their game or was it a coincidence that their best game of the year came after their break?

Minnesota had averaged just 16 points a game through the first month before hanging 34 on the Bears last week. Rookie flash Adrian Peterson led the way, cutting around and through the Bears for 224 yards and three long TD runs.

He and the Vikings offer the opposite of the Patriots attack, a run first, pass later scheme. To be fair to New England, the Pats have more balance but prefer to go over the top.

When Minnesota Has the Ball

How do you slow Peterson down? First, make sure your corners eat their Wheaties. Peterson has the full package, with explosive speed to the corners. Only Washington and Detroit call more tosses to the perimeters of defenses than Minnesota. The corners must be able to beat blocks and pinch Peterson to the inside, allowing time for pursuit to close in.

Inside, the defense must maintain gap discipline and not allow Peterson wide cutback lanes. Against Chicago everything flowed from the Vikings ability to get solid push on the Bears right side. Peterson got big yardage starting to his left, then later cutting back when the Bears would slant or stack that side.

The Vikings run defense gets well deserved credit for stopping the run but the Cowboys front deserves some credit of its own, ranking 6th in the Football Outsiders adjusted run stats. Dallas d-line ranks first in runs off left tackle (Chris Canty, take a bow) and 5th on runs up the middle (Jay Ratliff, take your own). Who said the run defense would collapse without Jason Ferguson? The matchups of Canty vs. LT Brian McKinney and LG Steve Hutchinson vs. Akin Ayodele and Bradie James will tell a lot about Dallas’ chances.

The Vikings line got regular and deep pushes against the Bears across the board. Look at Peterson’s runs and you’ll see he’s well onto Chicago’s side of the line before he encounters any resistance. Dallas has a much bigger front and should be able to hold its ground better.

That said, Dallas weakness if off left end, where Anthony Spencer is learning the ropes. The Cowboys have to guard against over-pursuing off this edge and giving Peterson room for big counters.

The Cowboys can overemphasize the run because Minnesota has a poor passing attack. Tarvaris Jackson and Kelly Holcomb have alternated starts this year and neither has a passer rating above 70. Jackson looks to be the starter this week though he’s been the weaker of the two.

To give you an idea of how anemic the Vikings have been though the air consider that Peterson is the team’s best downfield threat, with a receiving average of 17.5 yards. Sidney Rice ranks second on the team in receptions with 11 for 119 yards, stats that Jason Witten nearly matched in the season opener.

When Dallas Has the Ball

We’ve heard all week about the Vikings stout run defense. It’s #1 and plays off the DT duo of Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. Pat is the beefier fireplug. Kevin the more athletic member of the pair. Behind them, MLB E.J. Henderson completes a dominant trio. Henderson has size and quickness between the hashes.

This year, Minnesota has also improved its run stopping ability to its right side. DE Ray Edwards and second year LB Chad Greenaway give the Vikings athleticism to match the inside bulk. Teams are averaging a microscopic one yard per carry trying to run wide their way.

Is there any hope of running on the Vikings? Yes. Go right. The left perimeter of Minnesota’s defense, with DE Kenechi Udeze and WOLB Ben Leber is much smaller and slower than their opposites. They ran 25th in yards allowed per rush.

Look for the Dallas game play to include the gamut of traps, tosses and off tackle runs to their side. The Cowboys found success running right last week against the Patriots. TE Jason Witten’s outstanding perimeter blocks keyed Julius Jones’ long 3rd quarter runs. Look for Dallas to use two TE sets a lot to spread Minnesota’s front and get Witten head up on Leber.

The most likely early tactic will be passes — lots of them. The flip side to Minnesota’s stout front is a 32nd ranked pass defense.  Opponents are averaging 288 yards per game and the last two QBs to test the Vikings both topped 340 yards.  One reason is the Vikings tepid rush;  they have a respectable 13 sacks for the year but when you look at the number of passes they’ve had to face they rank in the bottom quarter of sacks per attempt.

Special Teams

Look out for Superman.  Not only is Peterson the Vikings best running and receiving weapon but he’s averaging a team best 31 yards per attempt on kickoffs.   Dallas will need consistent inside pentration and land discipline from its kickoff coverage units no matter whom the Vikings field;  they have three returners averaging over 28 yards.

The kicking game looks like a wash.  Dallas duo of Mat McBriar and Nick Folk are money but the Vikings pair of Chris Kluwe and Ryan Longwell can match them on distance. Longwell’s 53 yarder at the gun won the game.

Prediction

Be prepared to be dazzled by Peterson.  He’s got the game.  The key for Dallas is to keep him from running amok.  100 to 110 yards and Dallas wins.  150-200 and we’ll all be sweating.   The Cowboys will move the ball and get points.  Avoiding turnovers should put them back in the win column.

Dallas 27  Minnesota 17