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The Case for Flozell Adams

In 1977, the Houston Oilers beat the Cincinnati Bengals 21-16 in the season finale, allowing the Pittsburgh Steelers to leapfrog Cincy into a playoff berth. To show their appreciation, the Steelers players chipped in to buy every Oilers player a monogrammed leather attache case.

When Flozell Adams gets his huge payday this coming off season, be it from Jerry Jones or another owner, he should send Sports Illustrated’s Paul Zimmerman a leather case, or a case of wine of the connoisseur Zimmerman’s choosing.

Dr. Z published his annual All-Pro team, a unit that goes one deep. It has four Cowboys, who tie the Patriots for the most Z. standouts. Spots are coveted on this team because Zimmerman puts his all into it — he watches tape, grades individual players and makes sure that every finalist was watched in at least half his games.

Of Adams, he wrote:

I’d never picked Adams on my All-Pro team and I didn’t plan to this year. I mean, his technique was just so sloppy. He kind of engulfs people. I wasn’t even going to do a grading on him, along with the other lads. But then I was going through my DEs and the Giants’ Osi Umenyiora flunked out, basically because of a pair of zeros against the Cowboys.

Now a zero in my system is very rare. It doesn’t just mean no sack, it means no outstanding defensive play of any kind … force against the pass or against the run, tackle near the line, even enough penetration to blow up a play. All those get a check mark of some kind. But Flozell held Osi to nothing. So I looked at him more closely, or rather, at his opponents.

Jason Taylor of Miami. Zero. Huh? I know he’s been beaten up this year, but a zero for Jason? I’d never seen that. Rosevelt Colvin of the Patriots. Zero. Andre Carter of Washington. Zero. Schobel of Buffalo, a single force. Cole of Philly, who’s a good active rusher, two tackles on running plays. I had found the rarest commodity of all, an offensive tackle, which are just so difficult to come by these days. And I didn’t even do a grading on Flozell, his drive blocking, etc. Just the guys he faced.

When negotiations on Adams’ new deal begin, his agent won’t have to say a word. He’ll simply have to push a laminated copy of this review across the desk. Pay attention to those last two sentences, Jerry. Are you sure you’re willing to let this guy hit the open market?

I’ll say it again Flozell — Dr. Z loves wine.

– Two zeros on Osi Umenyiora. Hmmm. That’s reason for optimism this Sunday.

Fantasy Update

Just a short note — I have received registrations for 18 people for this year’s fantasy league. Of those, 5 people did not send me their Transaction ID. I have also setup a mailing list for communications about the fantasy league. The 13 people who have been identified have been sent a message. If you did not receive a message, then I do not have your Transaction ID. This should have been in the email you received after making payment.

Info on the mailing list can be found here. If you did not get the email, go to this location and subscribe.

The Blog will be mainly for football-related discussions. Any discussions on Fantasy should be using the mailing list.

Any other questions, email me at FFL@theboysblog.com.

Thanks

UPDATE: We now have only 2 people who have not identified themselves. If you signed up but have not heard from me about the league via email then you need to get me the TransactionID so I can identify you.

PSA: TheBoys Blog Fantasy League

I have received emails on what we are doing with the Fantasy league this year. Unlike last year, where the blog became inundated with Fantasy league activities (threads, drafts, etc.), this year I am only mentioning it once on the blog.

There is a link at the top of the left column that tells you how we will do the fantasy league this year and, from there, how to sign up. It also shows last year’s winner with his autographed Troy Aikman helmet. If you are interested in the fantasy league, please click on the link to the left or here to find out more.

If you have any questions you can email me at FFL@theboysblog.com …

Think Of It As Julius Jones Versus the Rest of the NFL…

…not just Julius Jones versus Marion Barber, for those of you with JJ/MB3 fatigue.

ESPN.com’s Nate Ravitz weighs in on the familiar Cowboys’ running back debate today. Ravitz’s column is ostensibly a fantasy football analysis, but he bases his analysis on the overall talent and expected production of the backs, so the article has value for the non-fantasy-motivated Cowboy fan as well.

Ravitz comes down squarely on the side of Barber. His analysis centers around the gap in YPC between the two backs, and their likeliness to get stopped behind the line versus their propensity for big plays:

Last season, Jones averaged 4.1 yards per carry, while Barber’s YPC was 4.8. That’s a glaring difference, and not just for the obvious reasons. Barber actually had a handicap in this category because he received more carries in short-yardage situations. In fact, if you remove just the touchdowns from three yards out and in, Barber’s YPC swells to 5.1, and Jones‘ … well, he didn’t score any short-yardage touchdowns.

One of the main reasons why Jones trails Barber in yards-per-carry is his propensity for getting stuffed behind the line of scrimmage. According to STATS Inc., Barber was stuffed just six times in 135 carries, and his .044 stuff percentage was the second-best mark in the NFL. In stark contrast, Jones was stuffed 26 times in 267 carries, producing a .097 rate that was among the very worst in the game.

Jones also averaged only 4.0 yards per carry on first-and-10 situations — again, one of the very worst marks in the league. And for all of the talk about his big-play ability, Jones, in those 267 carries, had just five runs of 20 yards or more, one more than Barber (135 carries),Wali Lundy (124) and Vernand Morency (91).

The YPC argument is one we’ve heard before, and as most Cowboy fans know, it is not as simple as Ravitz makes it out to be. Julius Jones got the bulk of his carries early in games against fresh defenses. MB3 logged most of his carries late in games, when defenses were tired and Dallas was in two TE road-grade mode. This can account for much of the YPC disparity, and probably SOME of Jones’ higher likelihood of getting stuffed behind the line.

The potentially new information here, though, is the comparison between Jones and the rest of the league, not just between Jones and Barber. Jones’ count of 5 big plays and his high “stuff” rating of .097 put him near the bottom of the league amongst comparable backs, and it is less easy to justify his difficulties from that perspective.

While we can understand why it would be easier for MB3 to break a 20+ yard run late in a game, there is no reason Julius should be in the same category of 20+ yarders as runners like Wali Lundy and Vernand Morency, who did not solely run late in games, who received far fewer overall carries, and who are overall not exceptionally talented or productive backs. Similarly, the .097 number is alarming because it is reportedly low relative to all the other backs in the league, not just relative to Barber.

As a Julius Jones booster, I am looking forward to what should be a make-or-break season for him in what he claims is a friendlier offense to his skill set. It is worthwhile to note that it was Bill Parcells, not Wade Phillips, who passed on Steven Jackson, Greg Jones, and others to draft Julius Jones with Dallas’ first pick of the 2004 draft. Phillips has no personal stake in Jones’ success and should feel no pressure to play him, particularly with Jones becoming a free agent at the end of this season. The competition this year should be decided solely on merit.

Final Fantasy Update

We’re on the home stretch folks…

Rafael is busy entering everyone and assigning them leagues (North, East, West, South). He told me that all should be done in about an hour. Once he’s done I’m sure he’ll post an update on this thread.

Update:  Everybody is the the program.  We have 40 confirmed players, hence four 10 team leagues.  Those who chose West and East were put there.  Those who said Central are in the South.  Everybody else was assigned at random.  Most of you are in the North.

I have activated the drafts for two divisions but for some reason am having trouble setting up the schedules.  I’ll check with Raul and the programmer tomorrow morning.  I should have all league drafts activated by Tuesday noon.  There is one minor glitch.  There is a duplicate team in the South and we need to figure out how to delete it before proceeding.  Everybody should be ready to go by early to mid-afternoon.  The machine sets draft orders at random, so don’t blame me if you’re picking tenth.

Scott Cox and Kevin Brenner — I got your emails about signing up but I NEED the Transaction IDs that were in your confirmation email. If I do not get them I cannot keep you in the league.

EVERYONE — I have 6 unclaimed Transaction IDs, meaning that there are 6 donations that I have not received an email with the ID so that I know who made those payments. If I do not get those emails verifying those IDs then I will be forced to refund the $20 payments and you will not be in the 2006 The’Boys Blog Fantasy League!!!

Please, PLEASE, everyone … email me your Transaction ID so you’re not left out in the cold…

Any unclaimed transactions will be refunded Wednesday or Thursday.

Fantasy Update III

Late Update 6:30 Central Time:

We have 45 players right now.  I’d like to get 48 to have four 12 player leagues.  I will keep the entries open another hour, until 9 pm Eastern time for anybody who wants to join.  If you are thinking about it or have a friend who loves roto ball, give them a shout.  We’ve got the space.

Right now, we’re two players short of four full leagues. There is still time to join, though we will not take any more players after Monday at 8 pm Eastern time. If you want to join, use the Amazon link in the left hand border just below the page header. Admission is $20.

Some info for those already signed up:

1. I have entered login data for everybody who has paid and given us an e-mail address. There are four of you who have not provided an e-mail. Please e-mail raul@theboys.com with your e-mail address and your Transaction ID from your confirmation email immediately so we can enter you in the system and give you a login and password.

2. For those of you who have provided e-mails, there are two notes:

• If you have already signed in and created an account for yourself, you’re in. Two of you have done this.
• For the rest of you, got to http://ffl.theboysblog.com. Your login is your last name. Your password is your last name, in lower case. Try to login and see if the passwords work and if you can find yourself in the appropriate league (see below).

3. I have created four leagues, the Boys Blog East, North, South and West. Those who gave me e-mail preferences have been put in appropriate leagues. All drafts are on Tuesday. If you have trouble making a Tuesday evening draft, try to find a proxy to draft for you.

Right now I have nine players in the BFL West. I have five in the East. I have six in the South. The leagues are tied to draft time. The Eastern players will draft at 7 pm Eastern time. The South players at 7 pm Central. The Western players at 7 pm Pacific. I have no Northern division players but will probably start them at 7 pm Mountain time. If you live in the Central zone and want to start a little later, let me know. I have one player who lives in the Eastern time zone but will play in the West because he wants to draft after putting his kids to bed. I have kids so I understand.

Sixteen of you have not given me time zones. I will place you in leagues at random if you do not. I want to make drafting easy for you but you need to help me out.

Again, we have plenty of space if you want to play. The drafts are 16 rounds, the scoring is yardage plus scoring with defense stats kept (but you won’t draft individual defensive players). We will have TEs.

Admission is $20 and will pay for some great Cowboys-related prizes. Join us.

Fantasy Update - Missing Owners

I know a lot of you are curious as to where we stand on TheBoysBlog Fantasy League. Here’s an update:

The coding has been ongoing and after a brief walk-through, all looks like it might be ready. We have contacted some of the people who have signed up to test out the mock draft process. We’re planning on doing that tomorrow evening.

We’d like to wait until after the last preseason game to do the live draft so that nobody drafts a player that gets injured in the last preseason game.

Missing Owners

If you have not received an email from me then I do not have your email address for the league. There are 8 fees paid that have not been claimed, meaning that I have not received an email from the 8 people with those Transaction IDs. If you are one of these eight people, please email me at raul@theboys.com with the Transaction ID that was sent to you via email. That ID may also be on your credit card statement.

If I do not get the final 8 participants identified I will refund the money back to the person(s), so you will see the refund. If you still want to participate you can pay the fee again.

The following IDs need “claimed”: 

Transaction ID	Date
700117979746	07/30/2006
700118906896	07/31/2006
700119976816	07/31/2006
700118940956	07/31/2006
700111970906	07/31/2006
700110021047	08/02/2006
700116079007	08/02/2006
700114100067	08/14/2006

All people joining should receive an email with the Transaction ID. You should also see the Transaction ID on the confirmation page at Amazon. That number is important because it allows me to associate your email address with the entrance fee (Amazon does not send email addresses to protect your privacy).

Mockville

I’ve been contacted to be the Cowboys “GM” in an internet mock draft to be held the 17th through the 21st. This year’s mock will only cover the first round. Trades will be allowed.

Here’s my philosophy going in (your feedback is appreciated): I’m going to act in the way I think the team will. That means no trading up, all you Vernon Davis and Michael Huff fans. (I don’t think Huff is worth a trade up anyway, to be perfectly honest.)

My short list of positional needs is: OLB, OG, FS, OT, NT in roughly that order. That winnows my list of options for the 18th pick considerably:

1. OLB — there are three possible first round options, IMO. Florida State’s Kamerion Wimbley, Ohio State’s Bobby Carpenter and N.C. State’s Manny Lawson, though the most recent mocks are putting Lawson at the very top of round two;

2. OG — There are no guards with first round grades this year;

3. FS — There are some safeties getting first round grades and I would consider Ohio State’s Donte Whitner at this spot. That said, the Cowboys have big money in Anthony Henry. Terence Newman and Roy Williams are due big new contracts soon. Selecting a FS at 18 would mean that Dallas has gone with a D-back in three of the last four first rounds. Consider: ‘02- Roy Williams; ‘03 - Newman; ‘04 - no 1st rounder; ‘05 - Demarcus Ware and Marcus Spears;

That’s a lot of cap room to put at one position. While I’ll consider it, I’m not leaning that way.

4. OT — There are only two OTs worthy of the 18th — D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Winston Justice. Ferguson will go in the top five. Justice might slide, but I can’t see him getting past Miami at 16. I’ll take him if he’s there, however.

5. NT — There is no NT worthy of the 18th pick, unless Haloti Ngata falls. I’ll be shocked if he gets past Cleveland at 12th.

Here’s my thinking of how the first 17 picks will go:

A trade between NFC South rivals could shake up the top of this year’s draft board. The Saints shipped LT Wayne Gandy to Atlanta for safety Brian Scott and a draft pick.

1. Houston — Reggie Bush, RB, USC
2. New Orleans or Jets — Matt Leinart, QB, USC. N.O. is frequently linked with DE Mario Williams. But how certain are they that Drew Brees’ shoulder is sound? The Saints are hoping somebody jumps to two and the Jets seem like the most likely prospect. In the end, the Saints might stay here. Either way, I see Leinart going here.
3. Tennessee — Vince Young, QB, Texas The rumors that he’ll drop started with the Wonderlic leak. He’s a QB and QBs rise. Titans owner Bud Adams also decided to pick a fight with Steve McNair, so it’s certain the Titans take a QB here.
4. Jets or Saints — D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia — the Jets could use him as a cornerstone tackle if they don’t get Leinart. The Saints need a LT after losing Gandy and LeCharles Bentley to free agency. It doesn’t matter which team, he’s going here.
5. Green Bay — Mario Williams, DE, N.C. State; That cry you hear is Packers GM Ted Thompson, who loves Williams. He was scared the Saints would take him but now he’s doing the happy dance. Williams has prototype Reggie White size (6′6″, 290 lbs) and rushing skill to burn. DC Jim Bates worked miracles last year, but he has very little talent on hand;
6. San Francisco — Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland; The 49ers also like Michael Huff, from what I’ve read, but how do you pass up a TE who runs like a WR? A fast WR. Eric Johnson can’t stay healthy and the ‘Niners just traded Brandon Lloyd to Washington. Alex Smith needs playmakers. Snatching Davis from Al Davis’ clutches would also feel good;
7. Oakland — A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio State; There is a lot of speculation the Raiders could take a QB. And Jay Cutler will tempt them. But the Raiders have no linebackers on their squad. Hawk makes too much sense.
8. Buffalo — Winston Justice, OT, USC; Justice raised his stock after his Pro Day workouts and fits one of Buffalo’s needs nicely;
9. Detroit — Michael Huff, DB, Texas; Does Matt Millen take Jay Cutler here? Cutler would be the prototype Mike Martz QB, a pocket passer with guts and a gun. In the end, I’m giving Detroit a defensive player. New HC Rod Marinelli was a d-line coach and I’m sure he’s reminded Millen that he’s gone offense crazy with his past few drafts.
10. Arizona — Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt; This pick will be the last of the QBs. Dennis Green will be very happy. His QB cupboard consists of Kurt Warner. Here’s his future.
11. St. Louis — Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech; the Rams have spent wisely in free agency, nabbing LaRoi Glover, Will Witherspoon and Corey Chavous to bolster a weak defense. The Rams could use a big plugger to replace Ryan Pickett, so Ngata and Brodrick Bunkley could get some attention. In the end, I think they address cornerback, where the talent level is thin;
12. Cleveland — Haloti Ngata, NT, Oregon; A big smile for Romeo Crennell, who lands the anchor to his 3-4 scheme;
13. Baltimore — Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida State; There is speculation Bunkley will go as high as eight, to Buffalo. If that’s true, then Winston Justice will go here.
14. Philadelphia — Chad Greenway, OLB, Iowa; Don’t be surprised if the Eagles take Ernie Sims here. They need linebacking help badly;
15. Denver — Chad Jackson, WR, Florida, Denver feels it’s only one to two players away from the Super Bowl. It has two number one picks. The Broncos want playmakers on offense and a pass rusher. I’ve gotten into a back and forth with ThePalisades over LenDale White at this spot, but I think his poor workout lets Denver take him with their 22nd overall pick. Here, they get their pick of the WR class;
16. Miami — Kamerion Wimbley, OLB, Florida State; The Cowboys decision will be determined in great part by the Dolphins. There is a very good chance Wimbley could fall beyond Miami; I’ve heard through the grapevine that they are impressed with Donte Whitner. My guess is that they take Wimbley.
17. Minnesota — Ernie Sims, OLB, Florida State; The Vikings will either take Sims or the RB at the top of their board;
18. Dallas — If the draft goes this way, I’ll consider trading down, but the guy I would want here is Bobby Carpenter. And since I can’t be certain that New England won’t nab him at 21 — and since this is only a first round mock, so getting a good points deal on a trade down doesn’t really matter — I’m inclined to take him here.

 

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