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Keith Davis to Re-join Dallas — on Monday

Now, why would the Cowboys wait to sign Davis until then?

Are more deals in the works?

If no more moves are in play, it will be interesting to see whether they cut an offensive lineman or a defensive back. If they did the former, the Cowboys would have TWELVE d-backs on their roster.

This makes Davis the second coming of Elvis Patterson. He’s not much as a coverage safety, as today’s early story pointed out. He is a good special teams player, however, and the Cowboys could always use more of those.

Fun with SF ‘08 IV: How Ken Hamlin Got His Groove Back and Saved the Secondary

Longtime BSR readers know I’ve been using Scientific Football to bash the Cowboys’ inept free safety play under Bill Parcells. For whatever reason, the Tuna neglected the spot, trying to force a strong safety, Keith Davis, into the spot, and later trying to force feed rookie Pat Watkins into the position.

Both projects failed. Here’s a chart showing the free safety direct coverage play in ‘05 under Davis, ‘06 under Watkins, and last season under Ken Hamlin. (SF also tracks deep assists, where the safeties roll up in coverage to help corners.)

Player	Att.	Stops	Succ. %	Yards	YPA	Rank
Keith Davis ‘05	31	14	45.2	485	15.6	36th
Pat Watkins ‘06	11	4	36.4	227	20.6	36th
Ken Hamlin ‘07	22	13	59.1	107	4.9	*

After ‘05 and ‘06 it didn’t seem possible that the Cowboys’ free safety play could get any worse. Davis and Watkins ranked 36th among 36 safeties in their respective years. In other words, the Cowboys had the worst free safety play in the NFL during that time. Add in Roy Williams’ suspect coverage skills and Dallas had a gaping hole in its deep middle.

That’s not a good way to build a Super Bowl push. When Hamlin was signed in April ‘07 I wrote that regardless of whether the Cowboys got the mid-pack ‘06 Hamlin or the top-5 rated ‘05 Hamlin, they were due to improve.

Look at how much they improved. Joyner didn’t list the direct coverage stats for free safeties in this year’s book but only the late Sean Taylor produced a direct coverage YPA better than Hamlin’s. With Hamlin in the deep middle the one-play 70 yard TD pass drives Cowboys’ fans witnessed in ‘05 and ‘06 disappeared.

Hamlin’s yards allowed total is less than one quarter of what Davis allowed in ‘05. It’s less than half of Watkins’ ‘06 total. (And remember that Watkins was benched in mid-season, so his totals are only a fragment of the team total.)

If Dallas can keep its cornerbacks healthy, it can be a real force with Hamlin in the middle, no matter what type of year Roy Williams has at strong safety. Hamlin missed OTAs bargaining for a better contract but when you look at these numbers it’s hard to begrudge him one penny of his new deal.

Fun with SF ‘08 III, or Why Jason Witten Will Have a Career Year in ‘08

Update:  The Commissioner has re-instated Adam Jones.

I’ve written on many occasions the past few years about Dallas’ search for a fullback to replace Daryl Johnston. Some stats in the newest - and best — Scientific Football ‘08 illustrate how Deon Anderson’s shoulder injury hampered the Cowboys’ passing game, particularly the ways the team used Jason Witten, and how Anderson’s return can improve them.

We know that the Cowboys have been a two tight end heavy team the past few years. I doubt this is by design. The ’90s Cowboys relied mostly on what the team now calls its 21 package, with a fullback, a tailback, one tight end and two receivers.

The Bill Parcells Cowboys would have preferred this as well, but could not locate an adequate fullback in the draft. Lousaka Polite stuck around a while but never had the pop to excel as a lead blocker. The team had some success converting Oliver Hoyte from linebacker to fullback but he lacked the speed and receiving skills to play extensively.

The Cowboys appeared to have found their man when they drafted Anderson last year, but he went on IR after only four starts with a rotator cuff injury. Without him the team had to rely a lot more on their 12 packages, which have one back and two tight ends.

From this look the Cowboys use a traditional tight end, who lines up next to an offensive tackle, and an F-back, who flexes up and down the line, eventually lining up as a second tight end on the line; on a wing outside the first tight end; or in the backfield as a lead blocker.

Cowboys fans think of Jason Witten as the Cowboys tight end threat and of guys like Tony Curtis and the departed Anthony Fasano as the blocking tight ends, but in ‘07 those roles were reversed. Witten was the team’s primary blocking tight end. This is one big reason why Fasano now plays for the Dolphins. He struggled as the F-back and when the Cowboys needed tough inside blocking, they had to turn to their number one to get the job done.

That doesn’t seem to have affected Witten’s receiving stats. In ‘06, he ranked 5th among TEs with an 8.3 YPA. In ‘07, that number dipped ever so slightly, to 8.2. More consistently good play from Witten, right?

Yes and no. Take a look at the number of attempts Witten had in Sparano 2.0 in ‘06 and in Garrett 1.0 last year:

• 2006 — 90 attempts;
• 2007 — 141 attempts;

People frequently comment that Terrell Owens is the Cowboys number one and Witten is really the number two receiver. That’s close, but if you go by attempts, they’re really 1 and 1A in Garrett’s scheme. Owens had 139 attempts last year to Witten’s 141. That’s a 1:1 ratio. In ‘06 T.O. saw 152 balls while Witten had 90.

The loss of Terry Glenn last year greatly increased Witten’s load. Glenn had 112 attempts in ‘06. By comparison, Patrick Crayton had only 80 attempts as the #2 last year.

A closer look at the quality of Witten’s attempts shows how Anderson’s loss and Fasano’s flameout compromised Witten’s receiving capabilities. Let’s break down Witten’s attempts by distance:

Jason Witten	Attempts	% of Att.	YPA	Rank
Short, 1-10 yds.	97	69	6.2	8th
Medium, 11-19 yds.	32	23	7.3	6th
Deep, 20-29 yds.	10	7	10.4	5th
total	141	99	8.2	7th

Witten had an extraordinary number of short attemps. 69% of his catches were on routes of ten yards of less. That percentage was easily the highest among the bigger name tight ends. Only 49% of Antonio Gates routes were short; 59% of Tony Gonzalez’ attempts were short. Witten’s closest rival was Chris Cooley, who saw 65% of his attempts fall in the short category.

Yet, Witten was very effective in medium and deep routes. Of tight ends with more than 32 attempts (2 per game) Witten ranked first in medium YPA. Of TEs with more than 10 deep attempts, Witten far outranked his peers. His 19.5 deep YPA was more than six yards better than runner up Cooley’s 13.4 deep YPA.

Witten can make a case that he’s the best receiving tight end in the game. In ‘07, however, the Cowboys didn’t fully utilize him as a downfield receiver. Look at the number of times a TE “flexed” or lined up wide as a receiver last year:

Player	Attempts at WR	% of Att.
Heath Miller, Pitt.	14	23.3
Jason Witten, Dall.	33	23.4
Tony Gonzales, K.C.	59	41.0
Chris Cooley, Wash.	51	48.1
Antonio Gates, S.D.	68	62.4
Kellen Winslow, Cle.	105	74.5

Witten got far fewer chances in space than his peers. That’s no slam on Jason Garrett. Anderson’s injury made Witten the only dependable lead blocker the Cowboys had last year. With Anderson back and with Curtis and Martellus Bennett learning the F-back role, I expect to see Witten spending less time in the backfield and more time blasting up the field. I’m predicting a career year for him.

(If you want further evidence that Witten is the best overall tight end in football, this last chart should settle the argument. When you line up almost half of the time as a receiver, as Tony Gonzales and Chris Cooley do, you can’t be part of the discussion. When you line up as a receiver as much as Gates and Winslow do, you’re a tight end in name only.)

As good as Witten was last year, he has the teammates to let him be that much better in ‘08. That has to give the linebackers and safeties on Dallas’ schedule pause.

Fun With SF ‘08 II, or why T.O. is Happy With Jason Garrett as O.C.

At Oxnard, I asked Jason Garrett to describe the Cowboys’ offensive philosophy. “People get caught up in names,” I said. “They say this team runs a West Coast offense and that team runs a run-and-shoot. What offensive schools are in your playbook?”

He didn’t give it much thought. “People everywhere in the league run the same things,” he said. “It comes down to putting your people in the right situations…”

Terrell Owens, I think, would heartily agree. When Wade Phillips took over the team he remarked that the ‘06 Cowboys had used Owens almost exclusively at the X position (split end) and that his Cowboys would motion Owens a lot more and try to create more of those favorable matchups that Garrett mentioned.

Mission accomplished. K.C. Joyner’s metrics in his brand new Scientific Football 2008 demonstrate how effective Garrett was at the matchup game with Owens last year and why he’s considered such a hotshot assistant.

Owens, as I mentioned yesterday, had a top-tier overall YPA for 2007. Among receivers who were thrown the ball over 100 times, Owens ranked 2nd behind Reggie Wayne in this metric. And he wasn’t padding his numbers beating up on weaklings, at least not all the time. Owens ranked 4th in YPA when facing top-tier “red” cornerbacks.

A look at the types of matchups Owens faced shows Garrett’s skill. Joyner breaks WR attempts into five categories — attempts versus red, yellow and green corners; attempts versus unranked CBs (those who did not have enough plays to make his final CB rankings) and attempts versus non-CBs.

Owens had 139 attempts last year, meaning Dallas threw him over nine passes per game in his 15 games. Here they are broken down by class:

Terrell Owens	Attempts	% of Att.	YPA
vs. red CBs	18	13	9.4
vs. yellow CBs	47	34	7.3
vs. green CBs	18	13	10.4
vs. non-rated CBs	12	8	4.8
vs. non CBs	44	32	13.3
total	139	100	9.7

Note the solid numbers across the board, with the notable exception of those 12 attempts against Nate Jones-caliber CBs. It’s almost as if T.O. was bored playing against those guys.

The more important stat is the remarkably high percentage of attempts against non-cornerbacks. Teams knew every week that Owens was Dallas’ prime receiving weapon. And with Jason Witten motioning so much into the backfield (he ranked near the bottom among TEs last year in plays where he was “flexed” or used as a WR) you would think secondaries could key on Owens even more.

Yet Garrett was able to get Owens 74 attempts, 53% of his total, against green-level CBs, non-rated CBs or non CBs. And Owens tore up safeties and linebackers. His 13.3 YPA against them ranked only behind Randy Moss’ and Joey Galloway among full-time starters.

When you look at the tiered YPAs the OCs who can best exploit matchups jump out. I mentioned yesterday that Joey Galloway had a poor YPA against red CBs, yet he ranked 3rd overall in raw YPAs. That’s because Jon Gruden got him 54% of his attempts against green-CBs, non-rated CBs and non-CBs.

Want to know why the Patriots set so many offensive records last year? Look at John McDaniel’s success in creating favorable matchups for his guys. Wes Welker had 138 attempts last year and 90 of them, a solid 65% were against non-cornerbacks

Think about that. Teams knew Welker was the Patriots’ second option after Randy Moss and yet they could only get a cornerback of any quality on him one third of the time.

The best OCs can get their best weapons into favorable matchups regularly. Garrett’s success in creating such matchups for T.O. last year is one big reason why Owens was so eager to re-sign with the team. And it’s one more reason why I believe the offense will continue to be successful without a big-name #2 receiver.

I want to thank K.C. Joyner again for allowing me free rein with his stats. Scientific Football 2008 and his new book “Blindsided” can be ordered at: http://thefootballscientist.com

Fun With SF ‘08, Or Why Anquan Boldin Isn’t Worth A Huge Deal

A few months ago, when the Arizona Cardinals were in a contract impasse with WR Larry Fitzgerald, I got a call from a source who wanted to discuss trade packages Dallas might assemble for him. This source has worked in the business a long time and has a very good idea of player value.

We discussed a 1st round pick and a quality player off the Dallas roster as a starting point. When I mentioned that this might remind lots of Cowboys fans about the Joey Galloway deal and invite a backlash, the source was quick and firm with his retort: “Larry Fitzgerald isn’t Joey Galloway.”

The question recurs now that the Cowboys have seen their back WR roster thinned by injury, with Miles Austin and Isaiah Stanback on the mend and with Fitzgerald’s WR partner Anquan Boldin screaming for a new deal. The Dallas papers invite trade proposals on a regular basis, with one scribe suggesting Dallas offer a 1st rounder, Marcus Spears, and Miles Austin for Boldin and a 3rd.

Fair? Not according to the metrics in the brand spanking new copy of Scientific Football 2008. K.C. Joyner’s latest is easily his best, with more nuance than any of his previous books. (I highly recomment buying it at your bookstore on or his website, where you can get an instantaneous electronic download.)

One area of greater detail is wide receiver YPA stats. In the past, Joyner has compiled simple YPA numbers, looking at attempts and yards against opposing defenses. This year, he not only looks at a receiver’s production, but the quality of the corners he’s beating. Joyner takes his cornerback YPAs and breaks NFL CBs into three categories: Red corners have YPAs under 7; numbers like this put them in the top third of the league in any given year. Yellow corners are those with YPAs between 7-9. They are what you might call “league average” corners. Green corners are those with YPAs above 9. They’re the bottom third, the guys you need to fill out rosters and nickel or dime packages, but would replace if you could.

Joyner notes that Boldin and Fitzgerald have almost identical raw YPAs. In ‘07, they were identical, with both receivers posting very respectable 9.2s, which tied them for 17th, just behind Randy Moss and just ahead of Detroit’s Roy Williams.

Not all YPAs are created equal, however, as Joyner’s ratings-per-color-level show:

Player	vs. Red CBs	vs. Yellow CBs	vs. Green CBs
Larry Fitzgerald	9.1	8.5	13.6
Anquan Boldin	4.9	7.1	15.6

These metrics tells a very different story. Fitzgerald, as we can see, beats everybody, red, yellow and green. His 9.1 versus red corners ranked 5th in that category, right behind some guy named Terrell Owens. Boldin’s 4.9? Not so good; that number tied him for 47th.

While their production numbers are almost identical, let’s not kid ourselves. Fitzgerald is the number one in Arizona’s attack. Boldin is number two. Teams assign their best corners to Fitzgerald — and he beats them anyway. Boldin is very effective at beating 2nd and 3rd tier corners, exactly as a number two should, but when Arizona has faced teams with two top quality corners, or when teams have assigned their top guy to Boldin, he’s struggled.

What can we take from this?

1. For all the abuse he’s taken in the press, Arizona GM Rod Graves absolutely made the right decision. He paid Fitzgerald number one money and is paying Boldin top dollar for a number two, as he should.
2. My guy was on the money this Spring. Larry Fitzgerald isn’t Joey Galloway. He’s much better. (Galloway, if you’re wondering, finished 3rd overall in ‘07 raw YPAs, with a 10.9, but was a lousy 53rd versus red corners, with a 4.6 average. This tells me Tampa Bay faced some poor secondaries in ‘07.)
3. These numbers should temper the outrageous packages we hear from the gallery for Boldin and Detroit’s Roy Williams. The Cowboys have a legitimate number one in Owens. The thinking pre-draft was to obtain a young receiver who could complement him and eventually replace him. Both Boldin and Williams can certainly complement T.O. but neither shows the top end performance to take his place. Williams’ YPA versus red corners was a poor 4.3, which ranked 58th overall. It’s not that much better than Patrick Crayton’s number.
4. That doesn’t mean that Boldin and Williams don’t have value. But Jerry Jones’ unwillingness to pay a number one price for a number two shows that he has good data at his disposal. If Dallas felt a real need to pursue Boldin, I’d offer Arizona a number one, but no more. Given the fact that Boldin is unhappy with getting $4 million a year, which seems like a fair salary to me given his game, I doubt that he would pout any less if the Cowboys got him and refused to re-work his deal. For that reason, I don’t think he’s worth the potential headache.

If Dallas wants to make the proverbial big splash and get a complement who can be a number one if T.O. gets injured, they’re better off asking about Steve Smith, who beats red corners for an 8.4 YPA.

Me? I’ll wait for Miles Austin to complete his rehab. If he can beat yellow and green corners, and not cost the Cowboys high picks and big money, he’s the best value.

Stop Living in the Past

I see the Kneejerk Chorus on other sites calling for Larry Allen to be re-signed to fill in for the injured Kyle Kosier. I’ll bet some of them even feel Allen could replace Kosier.

This isn’t 1998 folks. It’s 2008. Allen was an all-timer in his time, but that time has passed. Joyner’s pass protection metrics show that Kosier surrendered 2.5 sacks in 2007. That puts him in a tie for 29th, or mid-pack at his position. Allen gave up 4.5, tying him for 53rd. And Justin Blalock, the darling of so many draftniks here? He ranked dead last among guards, giving up 9.5 sacks.

Given that he’s been in retirement the past few months, I doubt a rusty Larry Allen could step in and be any better than the backup options Dallas has available.

Now We’re Gonna Remember “the Other Guy’s” Name

Remember that old Seinfeld joke about The Three Tenors, where the cast members could all recall Luciano Pavarotti and Placido Domingo but couldn’t remember, “the other guy?”

Kyle Kosier has been “the other guy” on the Cowboys Five Redwoods line. People know Flozell Adams, Leonard Davis and Andre Gurode. They’re Pro Bowlers. We even mention Marc Colombo’s name, since tackles are visible on the edge and since he’s had a good camp.

People tend to ignore Kosier, except to rip him for being the guy who succeeded Larry Allen. When he was signed some folks posted links to YouTube clips of him getting beaten in his 49ers days, when he played out of position at tackle.

Come draft day, he’s always a whipping boy, whom some people are itching to bench. Last year there was a special section of bloggers here just dying to draft Texas’ Justin Blalock and drop him into Kosier’s spot, though Blalock was unproven.

In the meantime, Kosier has become the steady Eddie of the line, playing a solid, consistent left guard. He’s this decade’s John Gesek, the “other guy” from the ’90s,who toiled alongside bigger names like Erik Williams, Nate Newton, Mark Tuinei and Mark Stepnoski.

Last week, I mentioned that the Cowboys’ weakness is their interior offensive line depth. That fact could be rudely demonstrated next week against the Vikings because Kosier has suffered an apparent foot sprain and has an MRI scheduled for this afternoon to learn its severity.

Pray it’s not serious because the team needs him. The backups in the interior line, Joe Berger, Cory Procter and James Marten has been consistently underwhelming. Procter and Marten have looked just awful thus far and a source I spoke to this week, one who has seen game tape of the San Diego and Denver games, seconded that opinion. He also said Joe Berger had a poor performance against Denver.

I watched their games last night, brief as they were — the trio did not play until the last two series in the 4th quarter. I’m sorry to report that nothing has improved.

Berger and Procter are consistently being pushed backwards by bull rushes. This is a big no-no for an interior lineman. If you can’t anchor, how can your QB step up in the pocket and throw? Marten has had a lot of trouble handing quick interior rushers.

In short, I don’t trust any of these guys to sub in the absence of Kosier, Gurode or Davis. If Kosier’s injury is serious, I think the team might move RT Pat McQuistan to left guard. He worked at multiple positions in camp, but took most of his reps at RT and LG. He’s bigger and more athletic than any of the other three guys and played guard in college.

The Cowboys can’t afford any interior line leaks. The Vikings have two massive, athletic DTs in Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. They’re probably the best DT duo in football right now. If the Cowboys have to put Berger in at left guard I’m not confident he can keep the Williams boys off Tony Romo without center help. If Kosier isn’t around for the season opener, new Brown and former Lion Shaun Rogers will be lined up over Berger a lot.

It’s said you often don’t know what you have till it’s gone. If Kosier is gone for any appreciable amount of time, Cowboys fans may learn what he’s really worth — the hard way.

Update: Kosier is out up to six weeks. This is bad news, though the big brains at the DMN think Isaiah Stanback’s injury, which will cost him two weeks, is “the biggest blow.” I’ll refer you again to the title of my post.

Draftee Watch

It’s unfair to peg rookies before their initial seasons. However, I think we can make some assessments about their fitness to make team. Here, a simple up and down on their fitness to be Cowboys.

1A. Felix Jones — Had a down game after two up ones, making his first NFL fumble. He’s dangerous all the same and the way Dallas used him is not really the way they’ve been working with him in camp. Jones got reps as the backup tailback in the I-formation. He’ll get some plays this way when the games count, but he’ll also work a lot in 3rd down packages and in packages with Marion Barber.

He blocked well, which is the key sign. I won’t worry about his fumble unless he starts coughing up the ball on a regular basis.

1B. Mike Jenkins — a sure bet to make the team but somebody likely to get the Bobby Carpenter treatment, though no fault of his own. Dallas has three vets ahead of him, in Newman, Henry and Jones, and Orlando Scandrick’s fast start puts that rookie at 4th.

This means that with good health Jenkins will dress and play special teams or see weeks where he’s inactive, if the Cowboys choose other options to be the gunners on their coverage units. That’s no knock on Jenkins, but it does mean the more impulsive sector of Cowboys Nation will try to put a black hat on his head.

2. Martellus Bennett — I think everybody now sees the skills that moved Dallas to draft him. And hopefully those skills will disabuse the Kneejerk Chorus from again calling for his immediate trading, as they did during San Diego week, when Hard Knocks made him look like a clown.

He can block, he can catch, and he can run. He can be a special player. It’s up to him.

4. Tashard Choice — a number 29 was flying around on the coverage teams last night, giving people the impression Keith Davis had been regained. It was Choice, who has his role as Barber’s backup down. He runs, he blocks and he’s bringing his enthusiasm to special teams.

5. Orlando Scandrick — Has made plays every week and played very well in the Dallas nickel last night. Teams try to run him out of his zone with a receiver and run another player into the cleared out zone. He’s been very good at reading the combinations and breaking up the shorter throws. He did it playing on the right corner against Denver and broke up plays from the slot and the left corner last night.

He’s the defensive equivalent of Bennett, a physically gifted player who drifted down the draft charts because teams doubted his maturity. Right now he looks confident and aware. And don’t say we didn’t give you a heads-up here at BSR. Here’s what a source told us three months ago:

“He wasn’t covering Terry Glenn or T.O. out there but you can see his athletic ability. He’s got the backpedal, the change of direction… I talked to people around the league before the draft — and again, this wasn’t from the Cowboys — and there were some questions about his intelligence. But there were some people who told me they thought that if he was able to pick things up that he could be a better corner than [Mike] Jenkins in the long run… he went to Boise St. but this kid has Pac 10 talent. He could have easily played at a USC or a UCLA or an Arizona or Arizona St. You could see that on the practice field…”

– Guarded Optimism for the Top Rookies, BSR, May 18th, 2008.

6. Erik Walden — the only Cowboys rookie draftee who’s at risk of missing the final cut. His spot will depend on whether the Cowboys keep eight or nine linebackers. With Kevin Burnett and Anthony Spencer on the mend, Walden may get an early shot. He needs to add upper body strength and a lot will depend on his special teams play.

Last night, Walden didn’t enter the game until the 4th quarter. He looks okay in coverage and help his point against right ends on runs his way. His issue is his rush. He looks downright Dexter Coakley-esque on the edge; he’s not short by human standards (6′2″) but he looks like a runt against NFL OTs. Walden has great quickness and change of direction but needs to use his hands better. He was trying to bull rush tackles who outweigh him by 75 pounds last night and he’s not big enough (242 lbs.) to do that. He needs to get the linemens’ hands off his body and let his explosiveness work for him.

He should get a lot more playing time against Minnesota and will need to make some plays. His roster spot might depend on it.

Overall: Early impressions suggest a solid draft for Dallas. The team’s first five picks look like locks and the 6th-rounder has a fighting chance. What’s more, Jones, Bennett and Scandrick could all be immediate contributors, with Jenkins and Choice able to add value on special teams.

Cowboys 23, Texans 22. Next…

The final score reads 23-22 Dallas, but as we all know, pre-season scores don’t tell the story. That line was close because the Cowboys made three costly turnovers. When the regulars were in the game, the Cowboys offense and defense dominated. A Tony Romo pass that floated a foot beyond Terrell Owens’ hands in the Cowboys’ second drive forced them to settle for a field goal. On the ensuing drive, Dallas rolled to the Texans two where Romo forced a 1st and goal bootleg pass and had it intercepted.

The Texans did not stop the Cowboys offense in the first half and had the Cowboys not stopped themselves they would have entered the locker room with a 31-10 lead.

The defense gave up one sustained TD drive but showed a better rush and coverage. Andre Johnson was mostly invisible and the front four and five harrassed Matt Schaub all night.

The team still has things to work on but its not far from being ready for Cleveland.

Who looked good:

1. Marcus Spears — played on Houston’s side of the ball all night. I told you way back that Todd Grantham would help this team. Spears’ greatly improved play is exhibit A.

2. Marc Colombo — another guy in the last year of his deal. Sweeps and toss plays to his side gained big yards. He’s showing more pop on run plays than he ever has in Dallas.

3. The rest of the starting offensive line: overwhelmed the Texans front four and didn’t allow a Texan near Tony Romo on passing plays.

4. Orlando Scandrick — he can recognize pattern combinations and react to them quicker than most. He’s aggressive and can tackle with a bad attitude.

5. Ken Hamlin — lived in the passing lanes. He got his hands on two 1st quarter Matt Schaub throws and could have had two picks.

6. Marion Barber — You almost take him for granted, he’s so dependable. Had 74 yards by halftime. The hot start he showed in the Giants game was no fluke. If Felix Jones can provide some well timed series, and let the Cowboys pace Barber, he’ll still be ripping defenses in the second half.

7. Nick Folk — a guy I have started taking for granted. Three for three last night.

8. Jason Garrett — no gimmicks. No flim-flam. His offense lined up and gouged the Texans. Six of Dallas first ten plays went for ten or more yards. The team had 266 yards at the half. They moved on the ground and the air, at a slow pace and quickly. Their zip down the field to get a field goal in the last 34 seconds of the first half is not something Bill Parcells would have tried.

9. Demarcus Ware — The Texans ran at him, ran reverses at him and Ware stuffed them all. He rushed well too.

10. Roy Williams — played in his confort zone. Dallas kept him in the box and he blew up people on running plays, though he was stiff armed by Steve Slaton early in the 3rd quarter.

Not Quite

Tony Romo — was sharp most of the time, but just missed T.O. on a sure TD over Jacques Reeves in the first quarter and had a stunning force on the Texans 2 that was picked off. He’s was that close to a 31point first half.

Isaiah Stanback — showed the ballyhooed open field skills on his opening 44 yard kickoff return. Was making a second strong return to start the second half when he fumbled. Hurt his shoulder on the play, though the injury does not appear serious.

Felix Jones — blocked well but was mostly corralled by the Texans. He also lost a fumble inside the Texans’ ten.

Kickoff coverage units — gave up a long return on the opening kickoff but then were solid. Jacoby Jones got a long 4th quarter return, but that came against a 2nd unit. Nick Folk also kicked a low, short ball that gave them little time to get downfield.

Others

Bobby Carpenter — got a lot of reps with the second team and even the first. Seems to have taken good notes on Zach Thomas’ play, because he looks much, much better at getting around guard and centers on running plays. Was also able to get into Matt Schaub’s face on blitzes. He’s fine.

Deon Anderson — the fullback is returning as an option in the Cowboys passing game. Anderson has quickness and can do more than catch a ball at five yards and fall down. Both of his receptions had lots of added YAC. His blocking is also much improved. He’s the Cowboys fullback and will make sure Dallas doesn’t go overboard on two tight end sets.

Danny Amendola — Had a 24 yard kick return of his own and caught a deep seam route from Brad Johnson. Needed to make plays to keep his name in the mix and he did.

Martellus Bennett — lined up in the backfield on a 3rd and eight, caught a short pass in the left flat and broke three arm tackles on his way to a 28 yard gain. Be a little patient with the self-proclaimed “Aquaman” ’cause he’s got skills. His blocking was solid for a second straight week.

Mike Jefferson — a bubble guy who took advantage of his reps last night. Brad Johnson looks for him and Jefferson not only caught a lot of passes, but made tacklers miss. He had a chance for a really big gain but appeared to lose the pass in the lights. A 4th quarter drop will keep him on the bubble, however.

Adam Jones — okay, but not as precise as last week. Had a shot at deflecting or intercepting a 3rd quarter pass that was deflected over him for a completion.

Notes: Think the Cowboys did a little game planning, and that the wild experimentation Tank Johnson talked about this week has ended? Houston put in a heavy package, with two tight ends and two backs, with Andre Johnson the only receiver on a 2nd and 6 play. Dallas countered with a 3-5-3 package with the starting line and five linebackers — Ware and Ellis on the outside and Carpenter, James, and Thomas in the middle. Dallas had the interior muscle to stop a run for a one yard gain.

The Todd Grantham Effect, Part II — Chris Canty flashed an effective spin move in the game.

Not a good sign for — Joe Berger, Cory Procter and James Marten. When Dallas started inserted subs in the 4th, Doug Free and Pat McQuistan entered the game with starters Kosier, Gurode and Davis.

The Cowboys starters committed just one four yard penalty.

Instant Analysis — Halftime

Romo opens the quarter with a brain freeze, tossing a pick on 1st and goal from the two.

– The second teamers are starting to work in for both teams. Steve Slaton for the Texans, Stephen Bowen and Bobby Carpenter for the Cowboys, among others.

– Dallas is mixing five man blitzes in with four man blitzes and Matt Schaub is getting hit on every play.

– Schaub is finding a rhythm, finding Kevin Walter for a 2nd first down, on decent Scandrick coverage.

– Adam Jones got lost on a 19 yard pass.

– Jeff Triplett’s crew is calling a much cleaner game than Ed Hochuli’s hyper-active group did last week. They called their first penalty at the 9 minute mark of the second quarter.

– Marcus Spears again. He’s on his salary drive too. That’s fine with me.

– Touchdown Texans on a shallow cross in front of Bradie James.

– Orlando Scandrick can’t return the pass to the 20. A 15 yard penalty on the Texans helps the cause.

– Romo to T.O. on Jacques Reeves. It’s not a fair fight.

– Romo converts a 3rd and 8 to Crayton, who spins Bennett around for 18.

– There’s some Norv Turner in Jason Garrett. Throw on 1st down, run draws on 2nd and long. This Barber draw gains eight.

– A fullback sighting. Romo to Anderson to the Houston nine.

– Marion Barber is averaging over 7 yards a carry thus far.

– Barber takes it in with ease. The Romo miscue separates them from being 4-4 this half.

– Mike Jenkins is getting his reps now at left corner in the nickel D.

– Orlando Scandrick breaks up a pass from the slot spot. His stock is rising by the series.

– Demarcus Ware and Bobby Carpenter met at Schaub to cause a 3rd down incompletion.

– Danny Amendola gets a shot and lets the ball go into the end zone for a touchback. It’s the right move, but he has to hate the lack of opportunity to make an impression.

– Romo gets one more shot with 34 seconds left. Will the offense shoot the moon or take it to the half?

– They’re shooting the moon. A scramble and a 32 yarder to Sam Hurd gets Dallas to the Houston 30 in 18 seconds. To quote Keith Jackson, Hurd was so alone, he was lonesome.

– Two more short outs move Dallas to the Houston 23.

– Folks nails a 41 yarder to end the half.

Dallas goes 52 yards in 32 seconds.

– Isaiah Stanback hustles down to make a tackle on the final kickoff. He’ll get lots of second half reps.

Summary: the offense is ready to go. The pass rush is much better. The coverage has been good for the most part. Romo’s jaw dropping goalline pass is all that separates the Cowboys from a 27-10 halftime lead.

Houston had one steady drive and one big kickoff return.

It’s not perfect, but the Cowboys are ready for the regular season. I would be surprised if the offense played more than one series on the second half, if they play at all.

Instant Analysis — 1st Quarter

Has Marc Colombo muscled up over the summer? He’s been a powerhouse at right tackle tonight.

His line buddies are steady as well. Dallas got bit yardage to the left and right and Romo has time to work through several options on his TD pass to Patrick Crayton.

Isaiah Stanback has taken early advantage of his one touch, breaking two tackles on a 49 yard return.

Here’s a sign of a guy on the move: The Cowboys have move Orlando Scandrick into the slot on their nickel, a spot Evan Oglesby held the last two weeks. And the kid is around the football.

Two kickoffs for Houston — one a huge gain inside the Cowboys’ 30. Another stopped at the Texans’ 27.

Marcus Spears continues his big summer. He’s getting into opposing backfields regularly. He just blew up a Texans’ stretch play left from the backside.

Dallas is getting consistent pressure with four men in Houston’s first two series.

Here I go out on a limb: Adam Jones will make people forget Patrick Crayton as a returner. He just ripped off an 18 yarder on his first return. That’s what, a 21 yard average thus far? I know, I know, two is not a valid sample size. Still…

It’s official. Marc Colombo is in full-on salary push: he’s mauling people on the right side.

Dallas is vanilla, folks. Sure, the’re mixing packages on every play but there’s no motion. I’ve seen them bring one guy in motion thus far.

T.O. just torched Jacques Reeves — but Romo’s throw is a foot beyond him.

Fred Bennett is the much, much better corner, stopping T.O. on a smoke route for a five yard gain on the next play.

Thank you, Nick Folk. I, for one, still remember Mike Vanderjagt and Jose Cortez.

Dallas makes another kickoff stop inside the Houston 27.

Matt Schaub looks awful. He looks spooked — he’s rushing every pass and throwing them high, even when he has time. Ken Hamlin just missed a pick of a forced pass.

Dallas executes a screen to Marion Barber for eight yards, even though the Houston linemen read it.

Fred Bennett is good, but Dallas doesn’t care. T.O. just beat him for 16 and Jason Witten beat him one play later for 14.

Marion Barber ends the quarter with a 17 yard draw to the Houston two. The right side of the Dallas line is destroying their Texans counterparts.

• Dallas for the quarter: one TD drive, a FG drive and a third drive that’s at the Houston two.
• Houston for the quarter: a long opening kickoff return and nothing else.

Cowboys vs. Texans Open Thread

Here ya go.

Cheat Sheet — Texans @ Cowboys

Yes, it’s still preseason and yes, the game means nothing but I expect Dallas to approach tonight’s game with a better plan.  So here are some things to watch:

– When Houston Has the Ball

It will be rookie time for the Texans, who are force feeding top draft pick Duane Brown the left tackle position.  He and second year man Eric Winston are trying to provide bookend protection for QB Matt Schaub.  If Dallas is scheming tonight, watch for them to run some games at Brown and LG Chester Pitts.

When Schaub looks to throw, he’ll look for WR Andre Johnson first.  The vet from the U. of Miami has a Pro Bowl game but is overlooked playing with Houston’s rag-tag o-line, which has not given Johnson’s QBs time to find him often enough.   Brandon Marshall made some big plays on the Cowboys secondary last week and the big speedy Johnson will take his turn, though he’ll find Adam Jones waiting on the left side, instead of rookie Mike Jenkins.

Johnson will give us a much better sense of Jones’ progression.  The cornerback formerly known as Pacman looked like his old self against Denver, but was not facing Denver’s best.  Hope that Houston sends Johnson his way.

The Texans have invested heavily in running backs, trying to restore the balance they lost when Domanic Davis was lost to injury.  Last year Houston paid Ahman Green a small fortune to join them.  They also obtained former Titan Chris Brown and have been impressed with rookie Steve Slaton, who is their version of Felix Jones, a  speedy, change-of-pace back.

Brown and Slaton should get a lot more work because Green has been slowed by a groin injury.  That injury moved the team to sign former Card Marcel Shipp this past week.

When Dallas Has the Ball

The Cowboys looked sharp against San Diego but lost their edge last week against Denver.  They look to get it back when they face the young and improving Texans D.  Houston took intense media abuse for passing up Reggie Bush for Mario Williams, but is having the last laugh, as the former N.C. State standout took a giant step forward as a pass rusher last year.  He’s the key to a very young line that also features DT Travis Johnson, whom Houston picked over Marcus Spears in ‘05, and Omobi Okoye, the 20 year old prodigy whom Houston drafted as a 19 year old last year. He’s had difficulty adjusting to the NFL game but would probably be a redshirt sophomore at many big college programs right now.

The Dallas rushing attack has looked good when the starters have played.  Look for them to challenge the interior of the Texans line and push right, where Marc Colombo has showed previously unseen pop this summer.

When Dallas runs inside, watch the matchup of Andre Gurode and MLB DeMeco Ryans.  Ryans is the clear standout of this unit.  He’s a bit on the smallish side but has great quickness and instincts.  Gurode is pure power and the winner of this matchup will give his team an edge.

When Tony Romo drops back to pass, he’ll have two intriguing corners to attack.  On the Texans left is Fred Bennett, who posted one of the NFL’s best YPAs last year, according to K.C. Joyner’s final ‘07 stats.  Bennett cracked the starting lineup halfway through his rookie campaign and defensed 17 passes, a team record.

On the Texans right is Jacques Reeves, the former Cowboy who appears to be struggling adjusting to the right side.  (He played on the left for Dallas last year.)  I’m guessing the Cowboys will challenge Reeves a lot.

Special Teams

Jacoby Jones made a name for himself returning a punt for a TD against Dallas last year.  He will challenge the Dallas coverage units, which looked much better last week, after a horrible start in San Diego.   When Dallas receives kicks watch to see if Adam Jones gets more reps.  He was dazzling on his line effort last week.  Dallas might give more opportunities to Danny Amendola, who got two more returns after fumbling a punt against the Chargers.

Other players to watch:

– Bobby Carpenter might get reps across the board, since inside backup Kevin Burnett and rotation OLB Anthony Spencer are both out with injury.  This could be a chance for Erik Walden to shine.  He’s been erratic; the small school draftee has quickness and shiftiness, but lacks strength.  He’ll likely get a lot more snaps in Spencer’s place, as will Justin Rogers.

– Sam Hurd will get a lot more reps with Miles Austin on the mend.  The wideout with the real opportunity is Isaiah Stanback, who now gets to work with the second team and show how much he has progressed.

– Martellus Bennett needs to show that he can be counted on week-to-week.  He was much better against Denver, after his “Hard Knocks” embarrassment.  Talent isn’t his issue.  Maturity and consistency are and he’ll get the chance to show he’s learning to take care of his business.

– I’ve heard Dallas likes their safety play.  Does this mean Courtney Brown or Dowayne Davis are making plays?  Or both?

– Look at the pass protection and run blocking skills of the Dallas second offensive line.  This unit has been ragged at best so far.

Jones Move to Left Corner Likely a Peek at Regular Season Nickel

Dallas coaches and brass have been very careful not to sound presumptuous about Adam Jones’ status, claiming in every interview I’ve seen this summer that they’re not locking him into their lineup. They’ve been very coy about naming any starters thus far.

However, Wade Phillips’ claim that Jones will start at left corner against the Texans suggests Dallas is tipping its hand on its preferred nickel package for the upcoming season.

Consider:

1. Dallas will likely start the season with Terence Newman at his familiar left corner spot and Anthony Henry at his regular spot on the right.
2. Newman has been sliding inside to play the slot receiver the past few years any time Dallas goes to the nickel package.
3. Jones played left corner at Tennessee.
4. Given the choice, Dallas will use Jones in his old spot rather than going with the rookie Mike Jenkins, who started in Newman’s place against Denver.

It’s time. Phillips said his team had its best practice of the summer Tuesday, in part because the team had a precise game plan. The Cowboys have begun to prepare the team for the rhythm and pace of the season. Hence, the move to Jones.

Watch what they do, not what they say. They’re not going to make any statements to offend Roger Goodell, but they’re not going to enter Cleveland week unprepared either.

Corner Watch, Post-Denver

Corner is supposed to be a new strength on the team. How did they play, with Terence Newman out of the lineup:

Here are the six guys behind Newman in the pecking order:

Anthony Henry:

• Thrown at: 3
• Completions: 3
• Yards: 54

Eddie Royal blew up Henry’s line with a 32 yard catch where Henry got his hands on the ball but could not bat it away from the Bronco. Played soft on a Brandon Marshall comeback on the next play and surrendered a four yarder later.

Mike Jenkins

• Thrown at: 4
• Completions: 4
• Yards: 54

Welcome to the NFL rookie. Denver went after him on their opening drive. Brandon Marshall ran him off on a comeback; Jenkins was still running up the field when Marshall made his cut. Denver then crossed him up, running a stop and go to Royal that got Jenkins to bite. He slipped, letting Royal cruise for 35. Marshall ended Jenkins’ evening by executing Sprint Right Option, otherwise known to Dallas fans as “The Catch” play. Marshall ran what looked like a square in, then pivoted and took off for the deep right corner, where he caught Jay Cutler’s pass for a touchdown.

Evan Oglesby

• Thrown at: 6
• Completed: 3
• Yards: 37

A decent line, but it’s actually less than meets the eye. Twice he was beaten but saw his receivers drop the passes, at eight and 19 yards. Brandon Stokley beat him with ease when the Broncos starters were in. Oglesby’s good camp work may be eroding, because…

Adam Jones

• Thrown at: 4
• Completed: 3
• Yards: 6

How about that YPA of 1.5. Jones looked much more comfortable than he did in San Diego. His tackling was much better and he dropped an interception. He’ll likely start in the nickel on the right corner, with Newman playing the slot when teams go three wide. If Jones continues to play this way, Oglesby is back on the bench, and the fans will resume their chants to get Anthony Henry benched too.

Mike Lombardi said on last week’s show that Jones is not Deion Sanders. Who is these days? If Jones can play nickel corner like this, we’ll all be ecstatic. Jacques Reeves could never sub like this.

Orlando Scandrick

• Thrown at: 1
• Completed: 1
• Yards: 0

Scandrick’s lone throw was a memorable one. He blew up Broncos wideout Glenn Martinez on the goalline; Scandrick tracked his man into the end zone, saw Martinez cutting beneath him, released his original WR and rolled up to pop Martinez. The kid is making big hits on a regular basis. He also came within an eyelash of blocking a field goal and had a 32 yard kickoff return. Those are three good ways to keep yourself on the active roster on Sundays.

Alan Ball

• Thrown at: 4
• Completed: 1
• Yards: 20

Another less-than-meets-the-eye line. Ball took a penalty on one of the other plays, escaped a completion on another play because Marcus Smith tipped the ball and avoided being beaten for a TD on a fade when Patrick Ramsey’s pass floated wide and out of bounds. Ball looked lost on a couple of these plays and needs to make some positive plays to earn another year on the roster.

– Two weeks ago, Oglesby looked like he might force the coaches to keep six corners. He looked pretty good against San Diego but Adam Jones and Orlando Scandrick have probably jumped him in the pecking order. Oglesby still has a decent chance but he’ll need big games against Houston and Minnesota to turn momentum back in his favor. If the decision had to be made today, I think Dallas would keep five corners.

Selective Perception is Alive and Well in Cowboys Land

“Nobody knows anything…”

– William Goldman

Goldman was a highly successful screenwriter and said that oft-quoted line about Hollywood, but it could apply today, given the knee-jerk reactions in some quarters after yesterday’s loss to Denver.

To those in Hype-land, last night’s perfromance by the first team was “pathetic,” “putrid” and worse. Yeah, so? And if it was, what would it mean? Those same guys were dominant against the Chargers, who will have a better year than Denver. Did the Cowboys become chopped liver in seven days? Did they lose the killer instinct for winning meaningless mid-August games?

For those who need reminding:

• Dallas’ record at this time in ‘07: 2-0.
• New England’s record at this time in ‘07: 0-2.
• Miami’s record at this time in ‘07: 2-0.

Nobody knows anything at this point, at least based on pre-season performances.

You can say the Cowboys hot start helped propel them to a strong season, but that would be logically inconsistent. Because:

Dallas went 0-2 in their last two pre-season games, finishing 2-2. After last year’s Broncos game, Denver was hot because the Cowboys were blitzing like mad. The third game is supposed to be “the dress rehearsal” and yet Dallas looked awful losing to the Texans.

Do we take the two early wins as being indicative of future performance, or the last two? Or concede that none of these games mean anything?

Last year Wade had “Camp Cupcake.” This year he’s had “Camp Marshmallow.” Yet he was 2-0 last year with the softies. And he’s 0-2 this year with the softies. Do we say that the softness made for a healthier, better team in ‘07 or a weaker, less disciplined team this year? Or again conclude that we can’t conclude anything from the results so far?

I’ll go off camp performance. I’ve watched the last four. In ‘05, Dallas had no pass rush, save for Demarcus Ware, and Bill Parcells was trying to make do with Rob Petitti at RT and Keith Davis at FS. Those gambles went snake eyes and his guys were a disappointing 9-7.

In ‘06, Parcells started with Drew Bledsoe, in spite of hot-shot Tony Romo’s hot camp. In one late camp practice, the Tuna took a long, slow walk to an empty end of the practice field after watching his guys blow assignment after assignment. He looked skywards, as if to say, “why me? Why am I still doing this?” That team lived down to his fears, with a maddening tendency to yo-yo from week to week, playing up to tougher opponents like Indy and playing down to mediocrities like that year’s Raiders.

Last year Romo looked razor sharp in San Antonio, T.O. was unstoppable and the defense showed more athleticism and speed. Those tells carried over to the season, not the up and down pre-season performances.

My point? Camp performances have been pretty consistent indicators of team performance. And this year’s camp was the best of the bunch. The one thing that concerned me was the over-aggressive play of the secondary, which drew a lot of laundry when the real refs arrived.

Seeing Adam Jones‘ play jump up made me feel a lot better. Anthony Henry gave up one big throw, but had his hands on the football that play. He’ll be there. So will Terence Newman. Getting Mike Jenkins farther along his learning curve will help. The special team’s overall performance last night matched the level of attention its received this summer.

Since everybody is tailoring the Cowboys performances to their own biases, I’m taking the liberty of staying calm. The first teamers looked good in Oxnard and they looked good in San Diego. That works for me, last night notwithstanding. The defense looked like it had more rush options and showed that against the Chargers. I’ll rely on those performances.

Hey, I know just as much as anybody else, which at this point is exactly nothing.

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