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Which Teams Have the Best Corner Units?

In part four of the series assessing cornerbacks using K.C. Joyner’s YPA stats from 2004 through 2007, I move from individual assessments to unit ratings. Joyner has a new set of ratings in Scientific Football 2008. I’m not going to rely on these numbers, though I will relay that Dallas finished ‘07 in the top ten.

I’ve chosen to overlook his ‘07 ratings for two reasons. First, they’re exclusive to 2007. Joyner rates the corner units as they performed in ‘07. That’s fine, but with Adam Jones joining the Cowboys’ roster, fans are interested in predictive stats.

For that reason I’m using any and all of Joyner’s numbers from the past four years. I figure more is better. As you’ve seen, a player’s YPA’s can fluctuate wildly from year to year. If we want an idea of how a corner is likely to perform in ‘08, I think it’s best to use all the data that’s available. In Terence Newman’s and Anthony Henry’s cases, I’m using their four-year averages, since those numbers are available. In Jones’ case, Joyner has two years of numbers on him, so I’ll go with their average and will do the same with every other CB.

I’m also rating the units three deep, since nickel backs are vital in this era of spread sets. This will lead to some omissions that cannot be helped. For example, Buffalo will be playing a rookie, Leodis McKelvin at one corner spot this year, so I can’t put a number on his performance.

Lastly, I’m simply averaging the three player’s YPAs here, which does not give proper weight to each player’s contribution, so consider these “soft” averages. Therefore, I’m going to place the units in tiers, rather than in a column. By coincidence, there are only five units that have an average YPA below 7.0, so they form my pantheon. Here they are in alphabetical order, with each player’s average YPA in parentheses:

1. Chicago — Nathan Vasher (5.7), Charles Tillman (6.6), Trumaine McBride (7.1)
Vasher is the best corner we have not discussed yet, because I have not rated players with only two seasons of YPAs. Vasher was top notch in ‘05 and ‘06 but missed 12 games last year because of injury. McBride filled in and posted a very respectable 7.1 YPA.

2. Dallas — Terence Newman (6.2), Adam Jones (6.3), Anthony Henry (7.4)
Jones has an average near Newman’s and has a career peak topping Newman’s, posting an outstanding 5.4 YPA in ‘06. (Newman’s career best is 5.7.) If Jones can approach this number again, he’ll be a starter.

3. Green Bay — Charles Woodson (6.5), Al Harris (7.5), Jarrett Bush (6.6)
Harris gets a lot of love from the press, but his YPA is lower than Anthony Henry’s. Like Henry, he’ll break up passes but give up some huge gains. Bush was very good in his first year at nickelback.

4. Pittsburgh — Deshea Townsend (6.3), Ike Taylor (7.4), Bryant McFadden (6.0)
It’s feast or famine with this bunch. Taylor has been consistently average at one corner and therefore draws most of the action. Townsend and McFadden have alternated so-so seasons with off-the-charts good ones. Both had YPAs below 5.5 last year. If the pattern holds, they’ll be off this season.

5. Washington — Shawn Springs (5.5), Fred Smoot (6.8), Carlos Rogers (7.1)
Springs outstanding play the past four years raises this bunch, but Smoot and Rogers have been steady and good, if unspectacular.

Who Is the Best Cornerback: Do YPA’s Mimic the SAT?

The third story in BSR’s series exploring the question, “who is the best NFL cornerback,” looks at the value of K.C. Joyner’s YPA statistic. Does it measure innate cornerbacking skill, or does it measure performance?

The Educational Testing Service, the creators of the SAT exam, long maintained that their test was uncoachable. It, like all aptitude tests, claimed to measure innate ability, what an individual was capable of achieving, not what a particular student had learned. Therefore, cramming was deemed pointless, since it would not affect a student’s outcome. This belief has been exploded in recent years, as the test has been exposed as having a clear ideological bias.

K.C. Joyner has never claimed that his yards per attempt cornerback stats measure a corner’s aptitude. They are derived from pure empirical study; Joyner looks at tape of each NFL corner each year and measures the number of throws aimed his way, the results of each throw and the number of yards gained against each player. The results would seem transparent.

Nevertheless, readers of this blog reacted to my initial posting of corner YPA averages as if the stat did measure aptitude. Several readers questioned the stats, in part because the top ten CB list did not include Champ Bailey, the Denver corner considered the game’s best by many pundits.

Bailey missed the cut, though not by much (he ranked 14th among CBs with YPAs for every one of the last four seasons). He’s lower because he lacks consistency. Here’s his line, with his overall rank by year in parentheses:

Player-team	2004	2005	2006	2007	Avg.
14. Bailey - Denver	8.6 (66th)	7.1 (36th)	4.7 (1st)	7.8 (56th)	7.1

As you can see, Bailey’s averages floated in the bottom half in ‘04 and ‘05 before he posted one of the best seasons recorded in ‘06. He dropped back into the bottom half in ‘07, allowing more than three yards more per attempt that year. And it’s not as if Bailey sat on an island most of the game and was then surprised when an opposing QB deigned to throw his way. He was targeted 60 times, only marginally better than counterpart Dre Bly, who saw 78 balls, though Bly’s YPA was an awful 8.8.

Looking at this line, I see a mediocre cornerback, with three fair seasons and one incredible one. But what of that ‘06. Was it a fluke? These number suggest not:

Best single-season YPAs, ‘04-’07 (min. 60 att.)
1. Shawn Springs, Wash. -’04	4.2
2. Dre Bly, Detroit - ‘04	4.4
3. Champ Bailey, Denver - ‘06	4.7
3. - Fred Bennett, Houston - ‘07	4.7
5. Sheldon Brown, Phil. - ‘04	4.9

These are the only campaigns by every down corners the past four years to average under five yards per attempt. I think what we might be seeing are a general measure of a corner’s innate capabilities. These are the guys who get 1600s in the CB SATs. In Bailey’s case, he may not be the best cover corner year in and year out but his ‘06 shows that he’s more than able to play at an elite level.

In terms of using YPA as a heuristic, we can see that a YPA in the 4s signifies a sublime season, like a pitcher with an ERA around 2.00 or a hitter with an OPS above 1.300.

So Champ Bailey can be deemed the best corner in the game if we consider peak performance. But isn’t consistency the hallmark of a top player? Would you prefer a guy who can be incredible but plays that way only once a presidential administration, or somebody who can play very well year after year? Compare Bailey to the corners with the two best YPA averages since ‘04 and see how consistency ranks higher than flash:

Player-team	2004	2005	2006	2007	Avg.
1. Springs - Washington	4.2 (1st)	5.5 (3rd)	6.2 (15th)	6.2 (15th)	5.5
2. Newman - Dallas	5.8 (8th)	5.8 (7th)	7.1 (29th)	6.1 (14th)	6.2

To answer the question, I’m sure the Denver Broncos are happy to have Bailey on one edge of their defense, but if you ask Dallas fans, they’ll gladly take Terence Newman. He bounced back in ‘07, despite his plantar fascia injury and is a good bet to jump back into the top ten with more help in the Dallas secondary.

Another aspect of YPAs that deserves mention here is how they remake the term “shut down corner.” Fans take this term literally; when a blogger posted Dominique Rogers-Cromartie’s college stats, which showed opponnents completing less than 30% of passes in his direction, another blogger belittled those numbers, saying they didn’t reveal any special performance.

In fact, if an NFL corner posted Rogers-Cromartie’s line on a consistent basis he would get fast-tracked to Canton.

Stopping opponents 50% of the time appears to be the threshold for being considered a shutdown corner. In the last three years only 38 corners have achieved this — 9 in 2005, 17 in 2006 and 12 last season. Since shutdown connotes performance far above 50%, I think that the term be discarded or ignored; shut down corners simply don’t exist.

Only once in that span has a corner topped 60% in success percentage, that coming last year when the Raiders Nnamdi Asomugha posed a 62.9% success rate. Asomugha is the hardest corner to throw against, topping 50% in each of the last three years, the only cornerback to do so.

Might Asomugha then claim to be the best corner? Perhaps, but his YPAs indicate that while it’s hard to complete a throw against him, teams gain large chunks of yards when they do.

The YPA is hardly a perfect cornerback stat, but playing with YPA stats reveals a new cornerback world, one that elevates the steady over the flashy. Corners with 1600 SATs are impressive, but it’s the guys with scores in the 1200 and 1300s, the cornerback nerds who grind day-after-day and year-after-year who have the most success.

Who Are the Best Cover Corners — 3 Year Averages

In part two of the series using K.C. Joyner’s YPA metrics for cornerbacks, I look at the best three year averages for cornerbacks who qualified for ratings in any of the Scientific Football Annuals from 2004 through 2007.

The pool expanded when the threshold was lowered from four to three years. 39 CBs qualified for rankings in the first instance and 64 in this group. Many of the names carry over from the first list, though there are some surprises.

Player-team	YPA Avg.
1T. Shawn Springs - Washington	6.0
1T. Deshea Townsend - Pittsburgh	6.0
4T. Ken Lucas - Carolina	6.1
4T. Rod Hood - Arizona	6.1
5. Terence Newman - Dallas	6.3
6. Leigh Bodden - Detroit	6.4
10T. Champ Bailey - Denver	6.5
10T. Fred Smoot - Washington	6.5
10T. Quentin Jammer - San Diego	6.5
10T. Charles Woodson - Green Bay	6.5

Some of the usual suspects are here. Shawn Springs, Deshea Townsend, Ken Lucas, Terence Newman, Quentin Jammer, Fred Smoot and Charles Woodson carry over from the first list.

The must-discussed Champ Bailey shows up, with the more recent weighting increasing the value of his All-World 2006 season.

Who, however, are Rod Hood and Leigh Bodden? Hood was Philly’s nickel back, putting up standout numbers his last two years with the Eagles. They let him go and the Cards are happy to have him. His ‘07 YPA and his three year averages are better than any put up by the better known and much better paid Eagles trio of Sheldon Brown, Lito Sheppard and Asante Samuel.

Bodden may be a guy who helps Matt Millen hang on another year. He had stellar ‘05 and ‘06 YPAs for Cleveland. His average dropped a bit in ‘07 but his picks jumped to six. The Lions snapped him up in free agency and may have gotten a value signing.

Just missing the list: Charles Tillman of Chicago with a 6.6 average YPA and Oakland’s Nnamdi Asomugha, with a 6.7.

Next: Are YPAs like SATs?

Who Is the Best Cover Corner?

This is the first in a series of pieces on the top cover cornerbacks and secondaries.

Who is the best NFL cover corner? Who has the best coverage unit around? The question is being kicked around a lot these days, with cornerbacks getting free agent contracts that rival those of quarterbacks for sheer dollars and bonuses.

I’ve come across several lists in recent weeks, all going off reputations, some earned, some not. BSR has decided to pursue these questions with the use of the largest database of corner coverage stats around. K.C. Joyner, the author of the Scientific Football books, will soon release Scientific Football 2008, the fourth edition of his series.

Joyner’s forte is breaking down the passing game, from offensive and defensive perspectives. His CB YPA will shortly become, in my opinion, shorthand for measuring a corner’s skills, in the same way that OPS has become the one stat that can best convey a baseball hitter’s skills. It’s easy to calculate and easy to understand. It shows how many yards a corner surrendered on average every time a pass was thrown to his man.

K.C. prints out a YPA ranking every year and in this year’s book has ranked the teams by tandem, calculating the average YPAs for the starting CB duos on each team.

What he has not yet done is compile YPAs over a longer span, say the last three or four years. When he learned I was putting such a spreadsheet together, he kindly forwarded his 2007 YPA rankings, which will not be published for several more weeks, and gave me permission to publish pieces from my calculated averages. BSR readers will therefore be the first to see these numbers. If you are not a regular Joyner reader, I highly recommend his ESPN columns and his books which can be ordered here.

The spread sheet raised as many questions as it answered. Although I have four years of data at my disposal, is it fair to omit a cornerback who has only played two or three years, but at a high level? What about a player who has missed a year due to injury?

In addition, what about players who have solid numbers but show a steady decline. Should I rate them above or below a player who has a similar number but whose averages are improving?

For now, I’ve decided to offer these breakdowns as a starting point for discussion, not as the last word in the debate over which players are best and which units are best. I’m going to offer two individual lists, one showing the best cornerbacks for the last four years and one for the last three years. The reason I’m pushing the data to be comprehensive is the generally inconsistent level of CB play from one year to the next.

It’s fairly routine to see a corner, even a good one, have two stellar years, then drop off a year and then bounce back strong again. For examples, look at the lines for Deshea Townsend and Ronde Barber on the top ten list below.

I’m sure there are many factors for a dropoff. A corner might be playing hurt. He may lose his confidence for a stretch of the season or an entire campaign. His pass rush might be weaker one given year. Whatever the case, there are not many corners in my sample who strung four strong years together. Even the better ones had a so-so year somewhere in the mix.

That said, I believe that a player must display consistency in order to be considered tops at his position. So my first list will, with one exception, include only those players who have posted numbers for the last four years.

Player-team	2004	2005	2006	2007	YPA Avg.
1. Springs - Washington	4.2	5.5	6.2	6.2	5.5
2. Newman - Dallas	5.8	5.8	7.1	6.1	6.2
4T. Townsend - Pittsburgh	7.1	5.1	7.8	5.2	6.3
4T. Barber - Tampa Bay	5.7	6.7	7.9	4.9	6.3
6T. Woodson - Green Bay	7.0	*	5.3	7.2	6.5
6T. Lucas - Carolina	7.9	5.8	5.2	7.2	6.5
7. O’Neal - Cincinnati	5.8	6.6	6.8	7.0	6.6
8. Smoot - Washington	7.6	7.2	6.9	5.5	6.8
10T. Jammer - San Diego	7.8	7.5	6.2	5.9	6.9
10T. Asomugha - Oakland	7.5	6.3	6.9	7.0	6.9

(*Charles Woodson did not get a rating in ‘05 because he was playing a rover position in Oakland’s system and did not qualify for the CB ratings.)

Some observations:

– The cornerback positon is incredibly unstable. You don’t think of corner as an attrition position, like running back, but there are only 40 players who had qualifying numbers each of the last four years. That’s just 1.25 per team. This is why cornerbacks who hit the open market make so much money. The demand for solid corners does not come close to meeting demand.

– Raise your hand if you considered Shawn Springs one of the top five corners in the game. I considered him for my top-of-my-head top ten, but he’s been the best YPA guy in the league the past four years.

– Raise both hands if you had Deshea Townsend in your top 20.

– There’s Terence Newman, Cowboys’ fans, parked at #2. His highest ranking in any given year has been 8th, but as you can see he’s been Mr. Steady. His 6.1 last year is even more impressive given his heel injury.

– In the what might have been category, check out Ken Lucas at 6th. The year he hit free agency he was rated higher by the Dallas scouting staff than Anthony Henry. Bill Parcells took the recommendation of Todd Bowles, who had coached Henry in Cleveland and who is now with the Tuna in Miami. Had Parcells pursued Lucas instead — Lucas did cost more — he might still be coaching.

– Notice the big names not on this list: Champ Bailey, Chris McAlister, Nate Clements, Asante Samuel? Inconsistency put them down the list. Bailey had one of the best years Joyner has ever recorded in ‘06, but it’s his only exceptional year the last four. He ranked in the bottom half in ‘04 and ‘05.

– Lastly, YPA tells us a lot, but don’t rush to judgments on guys who are on the list or are not. One fact that nags at me is that gambling, CBs, who Joyner calls “ball-hawks,” often have higher YPAs. Antonio Cromartie, for example, only had a 7.2 YPA last year, which is about league average. Guys like this will give up more intermediate and big throws in exchange for more picks. Conversely, CBs in cover two systems tend to have lower YPAs than they do when they play in more aggresive systems. Should we take the YPAs straight or weight them somewhat depending on a player’s personal style and scheme?

I’ll repeat, take this chart as a point of departure. Discuss.

Next: The top 10 CBs by YPA for the last three years.

Programming Note: I, like our Vice President, will be spending the next few days in an “undisclosed location.” I don’t know if his getaways involve a comely blonde, but mine will. I’ll see you folks again oh, Thursday.

Maybe.

Source: The Questions Are On Offense

I talked to a source who broke down the issues facing the team less than a month before training camp. Although the offense ranked 2nd overall in points, averaging just more than four touchdowns per game, I was told the organization sees its biggest questions on the offensive side of the ball. Some key points:

BSR: What are the biggest concerns on each side of the ball?

– The defense looks solid. I think the secondary looks strong, the linebackers look strong and the line looks solid. In the secondary, Terence Newman is solid, Adam Jones is solid. I think Anthony Henry didn’t look like he was 100% in the mini-camps, but he should be fine.

I think one of the rookie corners will be in the mix, though I’m not sure if it will be the one [Mike Jenkins] or the five [Orlando Scandrick]. One will be in the lineup this year and the other will be inactive. We won’t really know until they put on the pads at Oxnard.

I’ll add that I think the secondary will be improved with Dave Campo running that unit. They appeared to be better fundamentally. Nothing against the last coach [Todd Bowles] but I think Campo is an exceptional teacher and the guys know he’s got their backs.

BSR: So you don’t see an overhaul positon wise? I’m of the belief that they’ll stick with Ken Hamlin at the free and limit Roy Williams’ reps, getting him off the field when they’re in nickel and dime sets.

– Absolutely. Teams find guys like that. I also think the team is playing Hamlin right. Make him do it more than one year. If he plays well again, then you think about something long term.

BSR: What about the offensive side of the ball? Where are the weak links there?

– There are a few questions there. I think the team wants to get a better sense of its offensive line depth. They have Pat McQuistan going into his third year and Doug Free entering his second year and they moved James Marten to guard. They’ll give their starters some time but you may see the young guys going two and three quarters in some games so the team can get a really good look at them against top competition.

I also have some questions about backup quarterback. Brad Johnson is a smart guy but when he’s in there the ball goes sideways a lot. I think he’s here for 2008 but I’m sure the team has an eye out for another prospect beyond this year. 95% of the teams in this league are cooked if they lose their starting QB but if Tony Romo missed any significant time I think the Cowboys are an 8-8 team without him.

Without question, the biggest issue is at wide receiver. The team isn’t panicking yet, but I do think they have some worries about the #2 position. The offense stopped scoring touchdowns when Terrell Owens got hurt last year. Patrick Crayton is okay but he’s more of a #3 than a #2.

The team was looking for a young receiver before who could become a number one and could not find a fit.

I think they might need a little luck to fill that this year. It gets harder to fill holes once camp begins.

BSR: I know the Tom Landry Cowboys often filled holes with trades for veteran receivers. Lance Alworth, Billy Parks, guys like that. Might Dallas look at a veteran who’s dependable, in the way Keenan McCardell was for the Chargers a few years ago? And does this explain the Joe Horn rumors?

– My understanding is that Horn’s agent was given permission to shop him. The Cowboys have not called Atlanta.

BSR: So this is likely his agent trying to drum up interest?

– Yes, but if you asked me would I take Terry Glenn with nicks or Joe Horn, I’d take Glenn.

BSR: If the team can’t fill this need via trade, does this mean they’ll turn more to a guy like Felix Jones as a receiver?

– I think Jason Garrett is a guy who wants to open things up and get the ball down the field. I think one of the bigger questions is: how fast can Felix Jones learn what’s going on? He has to be a blocker, a catcher and a runner.

He’s got the potential to be a matchup problem, because he’s an explosive player, and because Dallas has T.O. and Jason Witten and Marion Barber, who can play every down, and they’re legitimate weapons, so defense can’t just lock in on him. But they will if he’s not clear on his responsibilities. It’s going to be interesting to track him in the one-on-one drills in camp, to see how he does against linebackers. Will they rag doll him, or will be be able to stay square and hold his ground?

If he doesn’t picks things up fast enough he’s Reggie Bush, a guy you draw up special plays for. And he has to be better than that. If all he can do is run special plays just for him, defenses will clue in very quickly that he’s in the game to get the ball.

Submit Your Questions

… for my upcoming podcast with K.C. Joyner in the thread.

There are a lot of cornerback comparisons being submitted at this time, so I thought I would conduct my own. I’ve put together a spread sheet with the YPA averages for all NFC East CBs and some for CBs on other highly regarded units, like Denver’s, San Diego’s and Green Bay’s from 2004 through 2006.

I’m eagerly awaiting my copy of Scientific Football 2008 to factor in last year’s scores. I can tell you already that Philadelphia’s corners don’t match up to Dallas’. How do the Cowboys stack up against the rest of the field? Stay tuned.

I’m also going to list the top ten CBs by YPA over that four year span. I can also tell you that Terence Newman will rate veeeeery well but don’t yet know just how well.

NFC Crystal Ball

The preseason magazines have started to appear. We used to rate them here, but gave up because they have this nasty habit of taking last year’s playoff field, adding maybe one “surprise team,” though they often have none.

As we’ve pointed out time and again here, there are on average four teams that go from losing records to the playoffs each year. Most of them have been in the NFC this decade.

Let’s ignore the magazines this time around and make our own picks.

I’ve nominated the Vikings as my new standout team. But let’s take it farther.

1. Pick the six playoff teams.

2. Who will be new to the playoff dance?

3. Any bounce-back teams?

4. Who are ’08’s big droppers?

I’ll take first crack.

1. The playoff six:

1. Cowboys
2. Vikings
3. Saints
4. Cardinals
5. Giants
6. Panthers

2. I have four new playoff teams — the Vikings, Cards, Saints and Panthers. There has been roughly 50% turnover from year to year league wide and I’m seeing more churn in the NFC, which has been the more volatile conference.

My final slot came down to the Eagles and Panthers. I’m giving Carolina the nod today, though I’d like to see Jake Delhomme’s health before I lock this one in.

3. My two NFC loser-to-playoff teams are the Saints and Panthers, with the Vikings and Cardinals moving from 8-8 to the post-season. I also see San Francisco yo-yoing back into contention but just missing the playoffs.

4. Big droppers?

a. The Redskins are trying too much change. They’ve lost their head coach and their DC, which means they’re putting in new offensive and defensive systems. They’re also relying a lot on their first-day receiver and tight end draftees;

b. The Packers should be good but what do we really know about Aaron Rogers. Their division will get tougher, with the Vikings and Bears improving. I don’t see them falling to 6-10 but 9-7 could happen;

c. The Seahawks have lived off their division’s weakness; they’re the only Western team to finish above .500 since 2003. They won 9 games in ‘06 and 10 in ‘07. I see them dropping out of the divisional penthouse with the Cards and 49ers improving. I’ve been burned before picking the Cards but they’ve been building their talent base and can win that division at 10-6 or 9-7.

d. The Bucs jumped back into the race last year by riding their defense. That offense doesn’t scare me. They’ve have 83 quarterbacks, which means they don’t have one. How much longer can Joey Galloway carry that offense?

Your turn.

Who Are This Year’s Packers?

The outlook was lukewarm for Green Bay this time last year — and that’s from their unshakably-sunny fans’ perspective. I remember boos when they picked Justin Harrell with their top selection. The so-called experts didn’t think much of their draft either. Mel Kiper gave it a C+, as did Scott Wright. The team was enduring another will-he-or-won’t-he-retire Brett Favre melodrama.

In the end the team that closed strong to reach 8-8 in ‘06 started strong in ‘07 and zipped to 13-3.

This happens every year. The year before the Saints went from homeless to a good half of play short of the Super Bowl.

I’ve talked a lot about the Fantastic Four, the teams that go from losers to the playoffs, but I want to zero in on the NFC team that will not only improve, but be a legitimate threat in January.

I nominate the Minnesota Vikings.

They had the best run defense I saw last year, with monster DTs Pat Williams and Kevin Williams gumming up everything inside. They have a lethal running game with Chester Taylor and the magnificent Adrian Peterson. They’re already well built on both offensive and defensive lines.

And they got better this offseason, trading for DE Jared Allen and signing WR Bernard Berrian. They only had one first day draft pick, after the Allen deal, but used it on SS Tyrell Johnson, who builds up their weakest defensive unit.

The Vikings have Tarvaris Jackson at QB, so they’ll attempt to play the 2000 Baltimore Ravens model or the Houston Oilers model circa 1977 and 78: ride a stout defense, a top tier running back and an opportunistic passing game to the Super Bowl. Jackson will have some passing options, in Berrian and TE Jim Kleinsasser, but his job description will nonetheless read “busdriver.”

Those Earl Campbell-led Oilers came up short, unable to get past a more balanced Steelers team, but the Ravens won it all. In the era of parity, especially in the NFC, anything is possible. I still prefer Dallas’ chances but I think the Vikings will be throwing their weight around come playoff time.

A Reminder: Check out our “beat down-o-meter” on the right and pinch Donny’s wallet. You’ll get an extra week of camp coverage out of it.

Meanwhile, Off the Ranch — June 19th

– The Green Bay Press Gazette reports the Packers made an inquiry on Miami DE/OLB Jason Taylor’s availability.  He’s seen as a hedge in case Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila’s surgically-repaired knee heals too slowly.

Rest easy, Greg Ellis.

– Titans’ DT Albert Haynesworth has offered to sign his free agent tender if the team will agree not to franchise him again in the future.

– Injured Raiders’ WR Javon Walker is expected to heal in time for the team’s training camp.

–

In Memoriam — Sean Taylor

As fans, especially as Cowboys fans, we cannot claim to have known Sean Taylor the person. Our only way of noting his passing is as a player.

And that’s enough to make us grieve.

Pro football is going through some growing pains. The ’00s, the Patriots ’00s, are the time of high mediocrity. The super teams and superior rivalries that raised the ’70s, ’80s and ’90s are missing today. And that’s given rise to an embarrassing situation; in a day when cable TV and the Sunday Ticket give fans the greatest access to every game, they’re revealed that there has never been less reason in the modern era to watch.

How many of you found something else to do this past Sunday, when the Cowboys were sleeping off their Thanksgiving win? How many Sundays in recent years have you found yourself amazed at the poor quality of matchups on your dial?

The salary cap has damaged continuity. It churns up offensive and defensive lines, secondaries or any area of strength a team can generate. It prevents teams from building across the board and sustaining their strengths. New England found a way to get more from less and has dominated as a result.

But will anybody compare them to the super teams from past eras? Excellence is defined by the quality of your opponents, and who has New England beaten this decade?

The game appears to be catching up, as teams begin to master the cap and build long term. The Cowboys bring us optimism because they’re young and their contracts have been spaced to give them a broad winning window.

Other teams in the league are following the same pattern, offering the hope that a few super teams will emerge in the next few years and raise the game back to a level it has not seen since the mid ’90s.

Every team in the NFC East has raised its profile in that time; this year has seen intensely competitive games and any of the four teams seems capable now of winning in any given year. We seem poised to revisit the glory days of the ’70s and ’80s when Dallas tangled with all three of its divisional rivals for the title on a yearly basis. But we’re not there yet. The teams are not fully formed. Promising players are still too scarce.

Sean Taylor was one of this new breed. He was a Redskins cornerstone, a top draft pick who hit for a team that has relied too much in the Dan Snyder Era on free agency. He was one of the top young stars in the division and the conference. And now he’s gone.

It’s enough to make all of us bow our heads with the Redskins Nation today. Rest in peace, Mr. Taylor. The game will miss you.

Skins S Taylor dies of gunshot wound

Sometimes real life interjects itself into this madness that we call football. And when it does, it usually isn’t pretty.

Redskins safety Sean Taylor has passed away from a gunshot wound suffered yesterday at his home in Miami.

The would cut through the femoral artery in his leg and caused significant blood loss. ESPN reported that while undergoing six hours of surgery yesterday, the doctors at one time had to open his chest in an attempt to keep him alive.

The Miami-Dade police are investigating the incident, which came eight days after an intruder was reported at Taylor’s home. There is currently no report of any leads and the investigation is ongoing.

ESPN is reporting that family friend Richard Sharpstein found out the particulars from Taylor’s girlfriend. She told him the couple was awakened by loud noises coming from within the house. Taylor grabbed a machete he keeps in the bedroom for protection and went to investigate. Before he could leave the room, however, someone broke through the bedroom door and fired two shots, one of which hit Taylor. Neither Taylor’s girlfriend nor his 1-year-old daughter, Jackie, were injured.

Taylor was the 5th overall pick in the 2004 draft out of the University of Miami, where he was an All-American in 2003. However, in 2005, he was accused of brandishing a gun at a man during a fight over ATVs. Last year he pleaded no contest to two misdemeanors and would serve 18 months probation.

Since the birth of his daughter, teammates, especially running back Clinton Portis, who played with Taylor at Miami, said that he had matured past the person he was in college.

“It’s hard to expect a man to grow up overnight,” said Portis. “But ever since he had his child, it was like a new Sean, and everybody around here knew it. He was always smiling, always happy, always talking about his child.”

While we as fans can rile and rant against players of other teams, especially from within the division, it’s times like this that bring pause to the game.

Our thoughts and prayers are with the Taylor family and their friends.

UPDATE: According to the Washington Post, it appears that this was a premeditated attack:

[Vinny] Cerrato said Taylor’s fiancee tried to call police from the house line, only to discover that the line had been cut. She had to use her cell phone to call 911, which delayed the response time.

“This was a deliberate attack,” Cerrato said without elaborating.

If true, then it could be related to the original complaint from a couple of years ago. More to come …

T.O. Runs Rampant: A Breakdown

A long post to help you get through a short Cowboys week:

This week, Michael David Smith over at Football Outsiders has put together a detailed analysis of one of our favorite topics: Terrell Owens‘ recent success, and specifically, his shredding of the Washington Redskins.

The reason Smith has devoted an entire column just to T.O.’s Week 11 performance is that it was the 3^rd highest rated DPAR game EVER by a wide receiver.

For those of you who don’t read F.O. or need a refresher on DPAR, it’s an objective, statistical way of evaluating player contribution towards a team win, adjusted for the quality of the opposition, and taken in the context of the team and the game (so a 5 yard pass on 3^rd and 10 does not earn you much, but QBs are also not penalized if their RB keeps putting them in 3^rd and long).

Owens now has two of the top four games on the DPAR list. #1 is Chad Johnson’s 260 yard performance last year against the Chargers in Week 10. The list unfortunately only goes back to 1996, since that’s all of the seasons that F.O. has charted so far, but it is still an impressive accomplishment. Owens’ rating benefited because 1) he was up against a Redskins defense that had previously played very well against the pass, 2) he caught 8 of the 11 passes intended for him, and 3) it took him only 8 receptions to log his 4 TDs and 173 yards. That is a staggering YPC average.

Smith’s column breaks down Owens’ day in a bit more detail, and it helps to shed some light on what in particular has made Owens so successful against opposing defensive schemes recently, and also lets us know what might give him trouble down the line. (Jason Garrett, if you’re reading this, feel free to take notes, we don’t mind)

When Redskins CB Shawn Springs gave Owens a cushion at the line of scrimmage, kept #81 in front of him, and tackled soundly, he performed well. The problem is, this happened precisely three times. In the first quarter, on the game’s first pass to Owens, Springs and safety Reed Doughty kept Owens in front of them on a curl route and limited him to 10 yards. Again in the first quarter, on a 2^nd and 3 for Dallas, Tony Romo hit Owens on a quick out, but Springs had started with a 5 yard cushion off the line, closed quickly, made the tackle, and contained the play.

In the third quarter, Springs was again able to break up a pass to Owens on a 3^rdand 3. He gave him a cushion at the snap, stayed smooth in his backpedal, and turned and ran step-for-step with T.O. He did not try to jam him (pretty much impossible with a WR of TO’s strength and size), but instead kept pace on a downfield route and managed to foil the play.

This pretty much ends the accounting of successful plays by the Redskins secondary against T.O. All of the coverages were man, and on all of them Springs gave T.O. an initial cushion.

In the 3^rdquarter, for the first of his long touchdowns, Owens ran directly down the seam. The coverage was zone, not man, with the two safeties in a Cover 2. Owens split the safeties, exposing a gap in their two zones and blowing through it. He ended the play well behind Leigh Torrence and LaRon Landry, an absolute no-no for safeties whose responsibility is the deep middle in a Cover 2.

The second of his long TDs follows a similar script. London Fletcher, the MLB, was covering the intermediate zone between the two safeties–Owens faked a crossing route to fool Fletcher, then headed deep. He once again easily split the two safeties, who were cheating towards the edges of the field and could not recover.

The conclusion Smith draws is a basic one, but one the Redskins did not recognize all the same:

“The primary conclusion we can draw, I think, is that opposing defensive coordinators can’t just go out there thinking they’re going to run a standard defense, especially a Cover-2 defense, and make no adjustments for the fact that Romo-to-Owens is such a phenomenal passing combo.”

Defenses without the schemes or athleticism to adapt their schemes are going to have trouble down the deep middle all year against this offense. The Patriots, a potential Cowboys Super Bowl opponent (long way off at this point, I know), have had significant liabilities exposed in that very region of their defense — Rodney Harrison can be victimized in coverage, and the ILBs are not fast enough to cover the intermediate zones. Of course, it is highly unlikely that Bill Belichick is unaware of this, but it’s interesting food for thought as the Cowboys continue their march to the playoffs.

Two Cowboys Ranked Amongst NFL’s Top “Scheme-Busters”

For those of you looking for something to chew on besides yesterday’s loss to the Patriots, ESPN.com authored a piece last week entitled “Scheme-Busters.” The idea of the article was to identify those players in today’s NFL who could single-handedly cause an opponent to alter their gameplan to account for them — players who changed opposition’s schemes just by being on the field. The panel selecting these players were not ESPN talking heads; the group consisted of two general managers, two pro scouts, two coordinators, two position coaches, two quarterbacks and one linebacker.

The top 5 names included zero Cowboys, and were not overly surprising: Peyton Manning, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, Steve Smith, and Antonio Gates.

What is likely more interesting to a Cowboy fan was the next tier of players. The second level, made up of players who received a majority of “Scheme-Buster” votes but were not unanimous selections, included two Dallas representatives:

Terrell Owens: “As much as I hate to say it, I’d put him in that elite class.”

Demarcus Ware: “You know where Strahan is going to be,” one AFC scout said, “but Ware changes the game when he plays down, plays up. Guys who play that position in that defense must be able to rush the passer and then turn their hips to cover and drop. Ware can do it all. He’s so big and strong. He’s a young Charles Haley.”

Owens’ ranking is not really a surprise — despite the resentment he stirs up amongst the media and other players, his impact on the field has been clear for a number of years, particularly this season, particularly in the first 4 games.

Ware, however, is a bit different, and it is encouraging to see him ranked this highly (top 15 players in the NFL) by GMs, scouts, players, and people who would know.  Shawne Merriman is listed down in the next tier with Jason Taylor and Jeremy Shockey, placing Ware’s current impact significantly above his draft-mate Merriman.

This is almost certainly not a verdict that would’ve been reached last year, and is one early indication (beyond the evidence we have seen with our own eyes) that Ware is moving towards fulfilling his potential and that this year’s new defensive scheme may be a good fit for the young star’s skill set.

Final 53 Tweaking

Troy Aikman commented last night that the roster was pretty well set and that “you can probably already pencil in the first 51 names or so.”

Now that I’ve seen them in a real game, I think some back roster tweaks can be made:

Offense (25)

QB (3) Romo, Johnson, Moore

Told ‘ya Matt Moore has some skills, no? If he keeps showing moxie there’s no way Dallas risks exposing him to waivers. With the dearth of good young NFL QBs half the league would put in a claim.

RB (3) Jones, Barber, Battle one: Thompson or Battle

Tyson Thompson lacked his usual burst running the ball, opening the door for Jackie Battle, who is playing for a RB spot, not a FB spot.

FB (2) Hoyte, Battle two: Polite or Anderson

Oliver Hoyte was mashing folks again on inside running plays. I’ll need to watch Lousaka Polite and Deon Anderson some more. The better special teams guy will win out.

WR (5) Owens, Glenn, Crayton, Hurd and Austin

Miles Austin moves ahead of Jerheme Urban, though both made decent catches. Austin’s ahead in the receiver rotation. However, he was on the kickoff coverage side that gave up a huge opening return.

TE (3) Witten, Fasano and Curtis?

Tony Curtis stepped forward to be the third TE, at least this week. The guy has very good hands but couldn’t make a Parcells team the last two years because he’s not the greatest blocker. Jay Novacek wasn’t either and as you could see last night, Jason Garrett wants TEs with speed, who can get upfield. Curtis fits this role and has the inside track on the 3rd TE spot.

OL (9) Adams, Kosier, Gurode, Davis, Colombo, Free, McQuistan, Marten, Procter.

Nothing changes here. Only a serious injury to Free (keep your fingers crossed) changes this rotation.

Special Teams (3)

Snapper and Punter: Ladouceur and McBriar

Kicker: Battle three: Gramatica or Folk?

Round one to Gramatica. Both made their kicks but Martin Gramatica’s long kickoff leg (he boomed his first three yards deep into the end zone, while Nick Folk’s landed at the ten) keeps them even. If the kicking duel ends in a draw, I think Dallas goes with experience.

Defense (25)

DL (6) Spears, Ferguson, Canty, Ratliff, Hatcher, Bowen?

Stephen Bowen was the second injury from this game. I don’t know his status but if he’s really hurt, this opens the door for someone else, though none of the down roster guys stood out on first glance. I’ll have to review the tape.

LB (9) Ellis, Ware, Spencer, Ayodele, James, Carpenter, Burnett, Glymph and battle four: Obomese, Saldi, Harrington or Phillips.

Still waiting to see who wins the last spot, though Alex Obomese tipped the ball Keith Davis returned for a TD.

CB (5) Henry, Newman, Glenn, Jones, Battle five: Thomas, Reeves or Ball

Joey Thomas got a pick, but as the Cowboys post-game guys pointed out, he was beaten on a post route and caught an underthrown ball. Ball gave up a TD on a slant but had perfect coverage. The ball was placed six inches off the turf, where only his receiver could catch it. Thomas probably has an edge, but this is still up for grabs and I would not be surprised if Reeves held his roster spot.

S (5?) Williams, Hamlin, Davis, Watkins, Brown

Ken Hamlin’s fuzzy head could force Dallas to keep a third free safety. That would be Courtney Brown, who looked less confused tonight.

The lineup isn’t as set as Troy made it out to be, but he’s not off by much. Barring injury, there are only five or six spots up for grabs at this point.

One More Crack at the Final 53

Think it’s a bit early to pencil in the final roster? I don’t. There are some key players to watch on Thursday but not many roster spots up for grabs. Here’s my current 53, with rookies in italics.

Special Teams (3)

K (1) Nick Folk and Martin Gramatica

They’re 1 and 1A right now. Their game performances will tell which one gets the nod. Folk has a strong leg and gets more height on his attempts, but if he’s missing just wide, it won’t matter. They’ve both been accurate. I don’t think the Cowboys will carry two kickers. If Folk wins the field goal duel, he’ll be the guy.

P (1) Mat McBriar

Working on another Pro Bowl selection. Next…

Snapper (1) L.P. Ladouceur

Solid

Offense (25)

QB (3) Tony Romo, Brad Johnson, Matt Moore?

The pecking order is set. I give Moore the current nod over Richard Bartel for #3 but the games will answer that question.

RB (3) Julius Jones, Marion Barber, Tyson Thompson

The two headed Jones-Barber monster lives. Thompson works 3rd team and returns kickoffs. Barring injury, he’ll stick.

FB (2) Oliver Hoyte, Jackie Battle

Hoyte’s the starter, though Battle has made his case this week. He’s shown he can block blitzers effectively, catch the ball and shows a nasty streak when running. Some people want to classify him as a RB, but he’s lined up a lot as a backfield blocker.

TE (2) Jason Witten, Anthony Fasano

This seems thin. The Cowboys could carry a third, but I have not seen a backup besides Fasano do anything impressive. The Parcells Cowboys used to carry three to four TEs and one fullback. Keeping Battle as a fullback could lessen the need for depth there, though I’m shaky about keeping just two.

WR (6) Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Patrick Crayton, Sam Hurd, Jerheme Urban, Isaiah Stanback

I think at some point in the near future the Cowboys will go with five receivers and sign that third TE. Right now, however, injuries could force them to keep six. Terry Glenn will probably be back in a couple of weeks after having a cyst removed from his knee. Crayton and Hurd are #3 and #4. Urban gets #5 for the moment because he’s the punt returner. He’s the shakiest name on my offensive list and the most likely to be cut.

Stanback hasn’t practiced yet but the scouting staff loves him and shin splints are not the type of injury to keep you on the injured reserve. (There’s no way they’ll sneak him through waivers so the options are to reserve him or wait.) He’ll probably get into the action very soon and will get a crack at the #5 spot, since he’s being groomed to return kicks.

Offensive line (9) Flozell Adams, Marc Colombo, Kyle Kosier, Leonard Davis, Andre Gurode, Pat McQuistan, Doug Free, James Marten, Cory Procter

The first eight are chalk. Proctor’s likely solid too since he backs up Gurode. McQuistan could probably backup both guard and tackle positions, so Dallas needs somebody to cover the pivot and nobody else has stood out there.

Defense (25)

Linemen (6) Marcus Spears, Jason Ferguson, Chris Canty, Jason Hatcher, Jay Ratliff, Stephen Bowen

The first five are solid. Bowen gets the nod for the last spot because he’s working in more packages than the other backups. Backup nose tackle remains a mystery. The Cowboys may keep seven players here.

Linebackers (9) Demarcus Ware, Greg Ellis, Anthony Spencer, Akin Ayodele, Bradie James, Bobby Carpenter, Kevin Burnett, Junior Glymph, Blair Phillips?

The first eight seem fairly well set. Glymph is getting a lot more work and gets near the football more and more though it’s not clear how much playing time he’ll get backing up Demarcus Ware. Phillips loves to keep linebackers and stocked 10 on his ‘06 Chargers D. Phillips, Alex Obomese or Dedrick Harrington could make the team off their special teams work.

Defensive backs (10)

Corners (5) Terence Newman, Anthony Henry, Aaron Glenn, Nate Jones and ?

The first four get a lot of work. Jones backs up Newman as the slot defender in the nickel. Joey Thomas, Jacques Reeves and rookie Alan Ball are all fighting for the final spot, in my opinion.

Safety (5) Roy Williams, Ken Hamlin, Keith Davis, Pat Watkins, Courtney Brown.

Dallas may only keep four safeties. The first four go two deep, with Davis backing up Williams and Watkins playing Hamlin’s understudy. Brown has a lot of athletic ability but has a lot to learn after being switched from corner. If the Cowboys feel he’s worth it, they’ll keep him. Otherwise they may try to sneak him onto the practice squad and keep a seventh defensive lineman.

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