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Which Teams Have the Best Corner Units?

In part four of the series assessing cornerbacks using K.C. Joyner’s YPA stats from 2004 through 2007, I move from individual assessments to unit ratings. Joyner has a new set of ratings in Scientific Football 2008. I’m not going to rely on these numbers, though I will relay that Dallas finished ‘07 in the top ten.

I’ve chosen to overlook his ‘07 ratings for two reasons. First, they’re exclusive to 2007. Joyner rates the corner units as they performed in ‘07. That’s fine, but with Adam Jones joining the Cowboys’ roster, fans are interested in predictive stats.

For that reason I’m using any and all of Joyner’s numbers from the past four years. I figure more is better. As you’ve seen, a player’s YPA’s can fluctuate wildly from year to year. If we want an idea of how a corner is likely to perform in ‘08, I think it’s best to use all the data that’s available. In Terence Newman’s and Anthony Henry’s cases, I’m using their four-year averages, since those numbers are available. In Jones’ case, Joyner has two years of numbers on him, so I’ll go with their average and will do the same with every other CB.

I’m also rating the units three deep, since nickel backs are vital in this era of spread sets. This will lead to some omissions that cannot be helped. For example, Buffalo will be playing a rookie, Leodis McKelvin at one corner spot this year, so I can’t put a number on his performance.

Lastly, I’m simply averaging the three player’s YPAs here, which does not give proper weight to each player’s contribution, so consider these “soft” averages. Therefore, I’m going to place the units in tiers, rather than in a column. By coincidence, there are only five units that have an average YPA below 7.0, so they form my pantheon. Here they are in alphabetical order, with each player’s average YPA in parentheses:

1. Chicago — Nathan Vasher (5.7), Charles Tillman (6.6), Trumaine McBride (7.1)
Vasher is the best corner we have not discussed yet, because I have not rated players with only two seasons of YPAs. Vasher was top notch in ‘05 and ‘06 but missed 12 games last year because of injury. McBride filled in and posted a very respectable 7.1 YPA.

2. Dallas — Terence Newman (6.2), Adam Jones (6.3), Anthony Henry (7.4)
Jones has an average near Newman’s and has a career peak topping Newman’s, posting an outstanding 5.4 YPA in ‘06. (Newman’s career best is 5.7.) If Jones can approach this number again, he’ll be a starter.

3. Green Bay — Charles Woodson (6.5), Al Harris (7.5), Jarrett Bush (6.6)
Harris gets a lot of love from the press, but his YPA is lower than Anthony Henry’s. Like Henry, he’ll break up passes but give up some huge gains. Bush was very good in his first year at nickelback.

4. Pittsburgh — Deshea Townsend (6.3), Ike Taylor (7.4), Bryant McFadden (6.0)
It’s feast or famine with this bunch. Taylor has been consistently average at one corner and therefore draws most of the action. Townsend and McFadden have alternated so-so seasons with off-the-charts good ones. Both had YPAs below 5.5 last year. If the pattern holds, they’ll be off this season.

5. Washington — Shawn Springs (5.5), Fred Smoot (6.8), Carlos Rogers (7.1)
Springs outstanding play the past four years raises this bunch, but Smoot and Rogers have been steady and good, if unspectacular.

Who Is the Best Cover Corner?

This is the first in a series of pieces on the top cover cornerbacks and secondaries.

Who is the best NFL cover corner? Who has the best coverage unit around? The question is being kicked around a lot these days, with cornerbacks getting free agent contracts that rival those of quarterbacks for sheer dollars and bonuses.

I’ve come across several lists in recent weeks, all going off reputations, some earned, some not. BSR has decided to pursue these questions with the use of the largest database of corner coverage stats around. K.C. Joyner, the author of the Scientific Football books, will soon release Scientific Football 2008, the fourth edition of his series.

Joyner’s forte is breaking down the passing game, from offensive and defensive perspectives. His CB YPA will shortly become, in my opinion, shorthand for measuring a corner’s skills, in the same way that OPS has become the one stat that can best convey a baseball hitter’s skills. It’s easy to calculate and easy to understand. It shows how many yards a corner surrendered on average every time a pass was thrown to his man.

K.C. prints out a YPA ranking every year and in this year’s book has ranked the teams by tandem, calculating the average YPAs for the starting CB duos on each team.

What he has not yet done is compile YPAs over a longer span, say the last three or four years. When he learned I was putting such a spreadsheet together, he kindly forwarded his 2007 YPA rankings, which will not be published for several more weeks, and gave me permission to publish pieces from my calculated averages. BSR readers will therefore be the first to see these numbers. If you are not a regular Joyner reader, I highly recommend his ESPN columns and his books which can be ordered here.

The spread sheet raised as many questions as it answered. Although I have four years of data at my disposal, is it fair to omit a cornerback who has only played two or three years, but at a high level? What about a player who has missed a year due to injury?

In addition, what about players who have solid numbers but show a steady decline. Should I rate them above or below a player who has a similar number but whose averages are improving?

For now, I’ve decided to offer these breakdowns as a starting point for discussion, not as the last word in the debate over which players are best and which units are best. I’m going to offer two individual lists, one showing the best cornerbacks for the last four years and one for the last three years. The reason I’m pushing the data to be comprehensive is the generally inconsistent level of CB play from one year to the next.

It’s fairly routine to see a corner, even a good one, have two stellar years, then drop off a year and then bounce back strong again. For examples, look at the lines for Deshea Townsend and Ronde Barber on the top ten list below.

I’m sure there are many factors for a dropoff. A corner might be playing hurt. He may lose his confidence for a stretch of the season or an entire campaign. His pass rush might be weaker one given year. Whatever the case, there are not many corners in my sample who strung four strong years together. Even the better ones had a so-so year somewhere in the mix.

That said, I believe that a player must display consistency in order to be considered tops at his position. So my first list will, with one exception, include only those players who have posted numbers for the last four years.

Player-team	2004	2005	2006	2007	YPA Avg.
1. Springs - Washington	4.2	5.5	6.2	6.2	5.5
2. Newman - Dallas	5.8	5.8	7.1	6.1	6.2
4T. Townsend - Pittsburgh	7.1	5.1	7.8	5.2	6.3
4T. Barber - Tampa Bay	5.7	6.7	7.9	4.9	6.3
6T. Woodson - Green Bay	7.0	*	5.3	7.2	6.5
6T. Lucas - Carolina	7.9	5.8	5.2	7.2	6.5
7. O’Neal - Cincinnati	5.8	6.6	6.8	7.0	6.6
8. Smoot - Washington	7.6	7.2	6.9	5.5	6.8
10T. Jammer - San Diego	7.8	7.5	6.2	5.9	6.9
10T. Asomugha - Oakland	7.5	6.3	6.9	7.0	6.9

(*Charles Woodson did not get a rating in ‘05 because he was playing a rover position in Oakland’s system and did not qualify for the CB ratings.)

Some observations:

– The cornerback positon is incredibly unstable. You don’t think of corner as an attrition position, like running back, but there are only 40 players who had qualifying numbers each of the last four years. That’s just 1.25 per team. This is why cornerbacks who hit the open market make so much money. The demand for solid corners does not come close to meeting demand.

– Raise your hand if you considered Shawn Springs one of the top five corners in the game. I considered him for my top-of-my-head top ten, but he’s been the best YPA guy in the league the past four years.

– Raise both hands if you had Deshea Townsend in your top 20.

– There’s Terence Newman, Cowboys’ fans, parked at #2. His highest ranking in any given year has been 8th, but as you can see he’s been Mr. Steady. His 6.1 last year is even more impressive given his heel injury.

– In the what might have been category, check out Ken Lucas at 6th. The year he hit free agency he was rated higher by the Dallas scouting staff than Anthony Henry. Bill Parcells took the recommendation of Todd Bowles, who had coached Henry in Cleveland and who is now with the Tuna in Miami. Had Parcells pursued Lucas instead — Lucas did cost more — he might still be coaching.

– Notice the big names not on this list: Champ Bailey, Chris McAlister, Nate Clements, Asante Samuel? Inconsistency put them down the list. Bailey had one of the best years Joyner has ever recorded in ‘06, but it’s his only exceptional year the last four. He ranked in the bottom half in ‘04 and ‘05.

– Lastly, YPA tells us a lot, but don’t rush to judgments on guys who are on the list or are not. One fact that nags at me is that gambling, CBs, who Joyner calls “ball-hawks,” often have higher YPAs. Antonio Cromartie, for example, only had a 7.2 YPA last year, which is about league average. Guys like this will give up more intermediate and big throws in exchange for more picks. Conversely, CBs in cover two systems tend to have lower YPAs than they do when they play in more aggresive systems. Should we take the YPAs straight or weight them somewhat depending on a player’s personal style and scheme?

I’ll repeat, take this chart as a point of departure. Discuss.

Next: The top 10 CBs by YPA for the last three years.

Programming Note: I, like our Vice President, will be spending the next few days in an “undisclosed location.” I don’t know if his getaways involve a comely blonde, but mine will. I’ll see you folks again oh, Thursday.

Maybe.

Submit Your Questions

… for my upcoming podcast with K.C. Joyner in the thread.

There are a lot of cornerback comparisons being submitted at this time, so I thought I would conduct my own. I’ve put together a spread sheet with the YPA averages for all NFC East CBs and some for CBs on other highly regarded units, like Denver’s, San Diego’s and Green Bay’s from 2004 through 2006.

I’m eagerly awaiting my copy of Scientific Football 2008 to factor in last year’s scores. I can tell you already that Philadelphia’s corners don’t match up to Dallas’. How do the Cowboys stack up against the rest of the field? Stay tuned.

I’m also going to list the top ten CBs by YPA over that four year span. I can also tell you that Terence Newman will rate veeeeery well but don’t yet know just how well.

In Memoriam — Sean Taylor

As fans, especially as Cowboys fans, we cannot claim to have known Sean Taylor the person. Our only way of noting his passing is as a player.

And that’s enough to make us grieve.

Pro football is going through some growing pains. The ’00s, the Patriots ’00s, are the time of high mediocrity. The super teams and superior rivalries that raised the ’70s, ’80s and ’90s are missing today. And that’s given rise to an embarrassing situation; in a day when cable TV and the Sunday Ticket give fans the greatest access to every game, they’re revealed that there has never been less reason in the modern era to watch.

How many of you found something else to do this past Sunday, when the Cowboys were sleeping off their Thanksgiving win? How many Sundays in recent years have you found yourself amazed at the poor quality of matchups on your dial?

The salary cap has damaged continuity. It churns up offensive and defensive lines, secondaries or any area of strength a team can generate. It prevents teams from building across the board and sustaining their strengths. New England found a way to get more from less and has dominated as a result.

But will anybody compare them to the super teams from past eras? Excellence is defined by the quality of your opponents, and who has New England beaten this decade?

The game appears to be catching up, as teams begin to master the cap and build long term. The Cowboys bring us optimism because they’re young and their contracts have been spaced to give them a broad winning window.

Other teams in the league are following the same pattern, offering the hope that a few super teams will emerge in the next few years and raise the game back to a level it has not seen since the mid ’90s.

Every team in the NFC East has raised its profile in that time; this year has seen intensely competitive games and any of the four teams seems capable now of winning in any given year. We seem poised to revisit the glory days of the ’70s and ’80s when Dallas tangled with all three of its divisional rivals for the title on a yearly basis. But we’re not there yet. The teams are not fully formed. Promising players are still too scarce.

Sean Taylor was one of this new breed. He was a Redskins cornerstone, a top draft pick who hit for a team that has relied too much in the Dan Snyder Era on free agency. He was one of the top young stars in the division and the conference. And now he’s gone.

It’s enough to make all of us bow our heads with the Redskins Nation today. Rest in peace, Mr. Taylor. The game will miss you.

Skins S Taylor dies of gunshot wound

Sometimes real life interjects itself into this madness that we call football. And when it does, it usually isn’t pretty.

Redskins safety Sean Taylor has passed away from a gunshot wound suffered yesterday at his home in Miami.

The would cut through the femoral artery in his leg and caused significant blood loss. ESPN reported that while undergoing six hours of surgery yesterday, the doctors at one time had to open his chest in an attempt to keep him alive.

The Miami-Dade police are investigating the incident, which came eight days after an intruder was reported at Taylor’s home. There is currently no report of any leads and the investigation is ongoing.

ESPN is reporting that family friend Richard Sharpstein found out the particulars from Taylor’s girlfriend. She told him the couple was awakened by loud noises coming from within the house. Taylor grabbed a machete he keeps in the bedroom for protection and went to investigate. Before he could leave the room, however, someone broke through the bedroom door and fired two shots, one of which hit Taylor. Neither Taylor’s girlfriend nor his 1-year-old daughter, Jackie, were injured.

Taylor was the 5th overall pick in the 2004 draft out of the University of Miami, where he was an All-American in 2003. However, in 2005, he was accused of brandishing a gun at a man during a fight over ATVs. Last year he pleaded no contest to two misdemeanors and would serve 18 months probation.

Since the birth of his daughter, teammates, especially running back Clinton Portis, who played with Taylor at Miami, said that he had matured past the person he was in college.

“It’s hard to expect a man to grow up overnight,” said Portis. “But ever since he had his child, it was like a new Sean, and everybody around here knew it. He was always smiling, always happy, always talking about his child.”

While we as fans can rile and rant against players of other teams, especially from within the division, it’s times like this that bring pause to the game.

Our thoughts and prayers are with the Taylor family and their friends.

UPDATE: According to the Washington Post, it appears that this was a premeditated attack:

[Vinny] Cerrato said Taylor’s fiancee tried to call police from the house line, only to discover that the line had been cut. She had to use her cell phone to call 911, which delayed the response time.

“This was a deliberate attack,” Cerrato said without elaborating.

If true, then it could be related to the original complaint from a couple of years ago. More to come …

T.O. Runs Rampant: A Breakdown

A long post to help you get through a short Cowboys week:

This week, Michael David Smith over at Football Outsiders has put together a detailed analysis of one of our favorite topics: Terrell Owens‘ recent success, and specifically, his shredding of the Washington Redskins.

The reason Smith has devoted an entire column just to T.O.’s Week 11 performance is that it was the 3^rd highest rated DPAR game EVER by a wide receiver.

For those of you who don’t read F.O. or need a refresher on DPAR, it’s an objective, statistical way of evaluating player contribution towards a team win, adjusted for the quality of the opposition, and taken in the context of the team and the game (so a 5 yard pass on 3^rd and 10 does not earn you much, but QBs are also not penalized if their RB keeps putting them in 3^rd and long).

Owens now has two of the top four games on the DPAR list. #1 is Chad Johnson’s 260 yard performance last year against the Chargers in Week 10. The list unfortunately only goes back to 1996, since that’s all of the seasons that F.O. has charted so far, but it is still an impressive accomplishment. Owens’ rating benefited because 1) he was up against a Redskins defense that had previously played very well against the pass, 2) he caught 8 of the 11 passes intended for him, and 3) it took him only 8 receptions to log his 4 TDs and 173 yards. That is a staggering YPC average.

Smith’s column breaks down Owens’ day in a bit more detail, and it helps to shed some light on what in particular has made Owens so successful against opposing defensive schemes recently, and also lets us know what might give him trouble down the line. (Jason Garrett, if you’re reading this, feel free to take notes, we don’t mind)

When Redskins CB Shawn Springs gave Owens a cushion at the line of scrimmage, kept #81 in front of him, and tackled soundly, he performed well. The problem is, this happened precisely three times. In the first quarter, on the game’s first pass to Owens, Springs and safety Reed Doughty kept Owens in front of them on a curl route and limited him to 10 yards. Again in the first quarter, on a 2^nd and 3 for Dallas, Tony Romo hit Owens on a quick out, but Springs had started with a 5 yard cushion off the line, closed quickly, made the tackle, and contained the play.

In the third quarter, Springs was again able to break up a pass to Owens on a 3^rdand 3. He gave him a cushion at the snap, stayed smooth in his backpedal, and turned and ran step-for-step with T.O. He did not try to jam him (pretty much impossible with a WR of TO’s strength and size), but instead kept pace on a downfield route and managed to foil the play.

This pretty much ends the accounting of successful plays by the Redskins secondary against T.O. All of the coverages were man, and on all of them Springs gave T.O. an initial cushion.

In the 3^rdquarter, for the first of his long touchdowns, Owens ran directly down the seam. The coverage was zone, not man, with the two safeties in a Cover 2. Owens split the safeties, exposing a gap in their two zones and blowing through it. He ended the play well behind Leigh Torrence and LaRon Landry, an absolute no-no for safeties whose responsibility is the deep middle in a Cover 2.

The second of his long TDs follows a similar script. London Fletcher, the MLB, was covering the intermediate zone between the two safeties–Owens faked a crossing route to fool Fletcher, then headed deep. He once again easily split the two safeties, who were cheating towards the edges of the field and could not recover.

The conclusion Smith draws is a basic one, but one the Redskins did not recognize all the same:

“The primary conclusion we can draw, I think, is that opposing defensive coordinators can’t just go out there thinking they’re going to run a standard defense, especially a Cover-2 defense, and make no adjustments for the fact that Romo-to-Owens is such a phenomenal passing combo.”

Defenses without the schemes or athleticism to adapt their schemes are going to have trouble down the deep middle all year against this offense. The Patriots, a potential Cowboys Super Bowl opponent (long way off at this point, I know), have had significant liabilities exposed in that very region of their defense — Rodney Harrison can be victimized in coverage, and the ILBs are not fast enough to cover the intermediate zones. Of course, it is highly unlikely that Bill Belichick is unaware of this, but it’s interesting food for thought as the Cowboys continue their march to the playoffs.

Two Cowboys Ranked Amongst NFL’s Top “Scheme-Busters”

For those of you looking for something to chew on besides yesterday’s loss to the Patriots, ESPN.com authored a piece last week entitled “Scheme-Busters.” The idea of the article was to identify those players in today’s NFL who could single-handedly cause an opponent to alter their gameplan to account for them — players who changed opposition’s schemes just by being on the field. The panel selecting these players were not ESPN talking heads; the group consisted of two general managers, two pro scouts, two coordinators, two position coaches, two quarterbacks and one linebacker.

The top 5 names included zero Cowboys, and were not overly surprising: Peyton Manning, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, Steve Smith, and Antonio Gates.

What is likely more interesting to a Cowboy fan was the next tier of players. The second level, made up of players who received a majority of “Scheme-Buster” votes but were not unanimous selections, included two Dallas representatives:

Terrell Owens: “As much as I hate to say it, I’d put him in that elite class.”

Demarcus Ware: “You know where Strahan is going to be,” one AFC scout said, “but Ware changes the game when he plays down, plays up. Guys who play that position in that defense must be able to rush the passer and then turn their hips to cover and drop. Ware can do it all. He’s so big and strong. He’s a young Charles Haley.”

Owens’ ranking is not really a surprise — despite the resentment he stirs up amongst the media and other players, his impact on the field has been clear for a number of years, particularly this season, particularly in the first 4 games.

Ware, however, is a bit different, and it is encouraging to see him ranked this highly (top 15 players in the NFL) by GMs, scouts, players, and people who would know.  Shawne Merriman is listed down in the next tier with Jason Taylor and Jeremy Shockey, placing Ware’s current impact significantly above his draft-mate Merriman.

This is almost certainly not a verdict that would’ve been reached last year, and is one early indication (beyond the evidence we have seen with our own eyes) that Ware is moving towards fulfilling his potential and that this year’s new defensive scheme may be a good fit for the young star’s skill set.

Final 53 Tweaking

Troy Aikman commented last night that the roster was pretty well set and that “you can probably already pencil in the first 51 names or so.”

Now that I’ve seen them in a real game, I think some back roster tweaks can be made:

Offense (25)

QB (3) Romo, Johnson, Moore

Told ‘ya Matt Moore has some skills, no? If he keeps showing moxie there’s no way Dallas risks exposing him to waivers. With the dearth of good young NFL QBs half the league would put in a claim.

RB (3) Jones, Barber, Battle one: Thompson or Battle

Tyson Thompson lacked his usual burst running the ball, opening the door for Jackie Battle, who is playing for a RB spot, not a FB spot.

FB (2) Hoyte, Battle two: Polite or Anderson

Oliver Hoyte was mashing folks again on inside running plays. I’ll need to watch Lousaka Polite and Deon Anderson some more. The better special teams guy will win out.

WR (5) Owens, Glenn, Crayton, Hurd and Austin

Miles Austin moves ahead of Jerheme Urban, though both made decent catches. Austin’s ahead in the receiver rotation. However, he was on the kickoff coverage side that gave up a huge opening return.

TE (3) Witten, Fasano and Curtis?

Tony Curtis stepped forward to be the third TE, at least this week. The guy has very good hands but couldn’t make a Parcells team the last two years because he’s not the greatest blocker. Jay Novacek wasn’t either and as you could see last night, Jason Garrett wants TEs with speed, who can get upfield. Curtis fits this role and has the inside track on the 3rd TE spot.

OL (9) Adams, Kosier, Gurode, Davis, Colombo, Free, McQuistan, Marten, Procter.

Nothing changes here. Only a serious injury to Free (keep your fingers crossed) changes this rotation.

Special Teams (3)

Snapper and Punter: Ladouceur and McBriar

Kicker: Battle three: Gramatica or Folk?

Round one to Gramatica. Both made their kicks but Martin Gramatica’s long kickoff leg (he boomed his first three yards deep into the end zone, while Nick Folk’s landed at the ten) keeps them even. If the kicking duel ends in a draw, I think Dallas goes with experience.

Defense (25)

DL (6) Spears, Ferguson, Canty, Ratliff, Hatcher, Bowen?

Stephen Bowen was the second injury from this game. I don’t know his status but if he’s really hurt, this opens the door for someone else, though none of the down roster guys stood out on first glance. I’ll have to review the tape.

LB (9) Ellis, Ware, Spencer, Ayodele, James, Carpenter, Burnett, Glymph and battle four: Obomese, Saldi, Harrington or Phillips.

Still waiting to see who wins the last spot, though Alex Obomese tipped the ball Keith Davis returned for a TD.

CB (5) Henry, Newman, Glenn, Jones, Battle five: Thomas, Reeves or Ball

Joey Thomas got a pick, but as the Cowboys post-game guys pointed out, he was beaten on a post route and caught an underthrown ball. Ball gave up a TD on a slant but had perfect coverage. The ball was placed six inches off the turf, where only his receiver could catch it. Thomas probably has an edge, but this is still up for grabs and I would not be surprised if Reeves held his roster spot.

S (5?) Williams, Hamlin, Davis, Watkins, Brown

Ken Hamlin’s fuzzy head could force Dallas to keep a third free safety. That would be Courtney Brown, who looked less confused tonight.

The lineup isn’t as set as Troy made it out to be, but he’s not off by much. Barring injury, there are only five or six spots up for grabs at this point.

One More Crack at the Final 53

Think it’s a bit early to pencil in the final roster? I don’t. There are some key players to watch on Thursday but not many roster spots up for grabs. Here’s my current 53, with rookies in italics.

Special Teams (3)

K (1) Nick Folk and Martin Gramatica

They’re 1 and 1A right now. Their game performances will tell which one gets the nod. Folk has a strong leg and gets more height on his attempts, but if he’s missing just wide, it won’t matter. They’ve both been accurate. I don’t think the Cowboys will carry two kickers. If Folk wins the field goal duel, he’ll be the guy.

P (1) Mat McBriar

Working on another Pro Bowl selection. Next…

Snapper (1) L.P. Ladouceur

Solid

Offense (25)

QB (3) Tony Romo, Brad Johnson, Matt Moore?

The pecking order is set. I give Moore the current nod over Richard Bartel for #3 but the games will answer that question.

RB (3) Julius Jones, Marion Barber, Tyson Thompson

The two headed Jones-Barber monster lives. Thompson works 3rd team and returns kickoffs. Barring injury, he’ll stick.

FB (2) Oliver Hoyte, Jackie Battle

Hoyte’s the starter, though Battle has made his case this week. He’s shown he can block blitzers effectively, catch the ball and shows a nasty streak when running. Some people want to classify him as a RB, but he’s lined up a lot as a backfield blocker.

TE (2) Jason Witten, Anthony Fasano

This seems thin. The Cowboys could carry a third, but I have not seen a backup besides Fasano do anything impressive. The Parcells Cowboys used to carry three to four TEs and one fullback. Keeping Battle as a fullback could lessen the need for depth there, though I’m shaky about keeping just two.

WR (6) Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Patrick Crayton, Sam Hurd, Jerheme Urban, Isaiah Stanback

I think at some point in the near future the Cowboys will go with five receivers and sign that third TE. Right now, however, injuries could force them to keep six. Terry Glenn will probably be back in a couple of weeks after having a cyst removed from his knee. Crayton and Hurd are #3 and #4. Urban gets #5 for the moment because he’s the punt returner. He’s the shakiest name on my offensive list and the most likely to be cut.

Stanback hasn’t practiced yet but the scouting staff loves him and shin splints are not the type of injury to keep you on the injured reserve. (There’s no way they’ll sneak him through waivers so the options are to reserve him or wait.) He’ll probably get into the action very soon and will get a crack at the #5 spot, since he’s being groomed to return kicks.

Offensive line (9) Flozell Adams, Marc Colombo, Kyle Kosier, Leonard Davis, Andre Gurode, Pat McQuistan, Doug Free, James Marten, Cory Procter

The first eight are chalk. Proctor’s likely solid too since he backs up Gurode. McQuistan could probably backup both guard and tackle positions, so Dallas needs somebody to cover the pivot and nobody else has stood out there.

Defense (25)

Linemen (6) Marcus Spears, Jason Ferguson, Chris Canty, Jason Hatcher, Jay Ratliff, Stephen Bowen

The first five are solid. Bowen gets the nod for the last spot because he’s working in more packages than the other backups. Backup nose tackle remains a mystery. The Cowboys may keep seven players here.

Linebackers (9) Demarcus Ware, Greg Ellis, Anthony Spencer, Akin Ayodele, Bradie James, Bobby Carpenter, Kevin Burnett, Junior Glymph, Blair Phillips?

The first eight seem fairly well set. Glymph is getting a lot more work and gets near the football more and more though it’s not clear how much playing time he’ll get backing up Demarcus Ware. Phillips loves to keep linebackers and stocked 10 on his ‘06 Chargers D. Phillips, Alex Obomese or Dedrick Harrington could make the team off their special teams work.

Defensive backs (10)

Corners (5) Terence Newman, Anthony Henry, Aaron Glenn, Nate Jones and ?

The first four get a lot of work. Jones backs up Newman as the slot defender in the nickel. Joey Thomas, Jacques Reeves and rookie Alan Ball are all fighting for the final spot, in my opinion.

Safety (5) Roy Williams, Ken Hamlin, Keith Davis, Pat Watkins, Courtney Brown.

Dallas may only keep four safeties. The first four go two deep, with Davis backing up Williams and Watkins playing Hamlin’s understudy. Brown has a lot of athletic ability but has a lot to learn after being switched from corner. If the Cowboys feel he’s worth it, they’ll keep him. Otherwise they may try to sneak him onto the practice squad and keep a seventh defensive lineman.

Glass Half Empty or Half Full? K.C. Rates the Corners

Conventional wisdom among Cowboys fans holds that Dallas has superior talent to San Diego’s and that Wade Phillips can build upon the superior secondary talent he has in Dallas.

Can he really? KC Joyner’s ratings of the Cowboys’ corners raise some unsettling questions, particularly about Aaron Glenn’sdependability Here are some excerpts on each of the top three cornerbacks:

On Anthony Henry:

Henry took a lot of grief from a lot of the media and fans for his perceived lack of performance last year, but taken as a whole, his metrics were actually pretty solid. His 6.7 overall YPA ranked 21st best and he ranked 45th in overall success percentage.

On the plus side, Henry had the highest number of passes defensed among cornerbacks. Six of those passes defensed prevented touchdowns, so he did perform very well in the end zone. Henry’s pass defense prowess also led him to rank #1 in forced incompletions for cornerbacks.

On the negative side, Henry did have 213 yards in missed pass completions, so in some cases he was lucky, but even if every one of those passes were completed, his YPA would be 8.8 yards.

That isn’t good but every cornerback has some luck and Henry simply had more than his share last year.

In Henry’s defense, he played the second half with a knee that locked up on occasion. A source told me he thought Henry probably should have been shelved for a couple of weeks to heal but continued to play under Parcells’ edict that you play if you can walk.

Joyner had a piece on ESPN.comat midseason naming Henry as one of the underappreciated CBs, so it’s clear his numbers nosedived as Dallas went through a unit dropoff; as he lost his top gear, Greg Elliswent down, the hole at FS became more obvious, as did the problems with pass coverage by the ILBs and the whole process snowballed.

Henry received a lot of razzing during the early days of camp but looks the same to me. We’ll see.

Of Terence Newman:

If Henry’s reputation suffered from a high number of pass attempts, Newman’s was improved by it. Newman is a good cornerback but his YPA was actually .4 yards higher than Henry’s last year. His success percentage was also only 3.5% better than Henry’s. Newman also had more than his share of luck, as he ranked 79th in the receiver dropped pass percentage metric…

Haven’t I mentioned that Newman had a down year last season? One of the most upsetting aspects of the December defensive fade was hearing Newman calling out other defenders, decrying the lack of leadership and then falling flat on his own face. He was awful in the Detroit game, though he had problems as early as Jacksonville in week one, when Matt Jones burned him.

Newman had stellar Joyner ratings in ‘05 and ‘06, so I’m going to chalk this up to a down season. He shows no signs of slowing down.

On Aaron Glenn:

His YPA would say he is an average cornerback but his low success percentage says he is in the bottom ¼ of the league. He did play some coverage safety last year, so that could account for a portion of the high numbers.

Even taking that into account, Glenn is still something of a risk. His will be in his 14th season this year and is also coming off of injuries. Injured, aging cornerbacks who have poor performance metrics are the stuff of defensive coordinator nightmares, so don’t be surprised if the Cowboys try to find someone on their roster to replace Glenn rather quickly.

Glenn was flying around before his knee acted up on him last week. I wonder if the extra camp time afforded backups Jacques Reeves, Nate Jones, Quincy Butler and Alan Ball is a blessing in disguise. Glenn played the left corner in the Cowboys nickel — Newman played the harder and more important slot — so any of these guys who seized the moment could find himself getting extensive nickel package play this year.

Anthony Spencer Signs 5 Year deal

Rotoworld is reporting that the Cowboys have signed first round draft pick Anthony Spencer. The deal is worth $9 million over 5 years, with a signing bonus of roughly $6 million.

Spencer was reportedly in Indiana yesterday and this morning, so the earliest he could be at training camp is probably late afternoon today. Greg Ellis is not participating in drills after aggravating his Achilles injury, so there is a gaping hole at OLB for Spencer to get his reps in.

UPDATE: OT James Marten has signed a 4 year deal. All Cowboys draft picks are now signed.

Linebacking to Prosperity?

Linebacker used to be a necessary evil in the early days of free agency. For the first few years of the salary cap era, Jerry Jones refused to give any linebacker a contract averaging more than $1 million per season, preferring to invest heavily in his defensive line and secondary.

In the Cowboys speed 4-3, this made some sense. The smallish linebackers Dallas drafted were not coveted by other teams and were easier to replace, though Jones probably regretted letting Ken Norton leave.

What a difference a decade makes. In the Parcells-Phillips 3-4 era, linebacker is the position: the Cowboys have drafted linebackers #1 the last three years.

Scouts have noticed. Scouts Inc. in particular has noticed the linebacker stockpiling, rating the Cowboys’ LB corp fifth overall, behind San Diego, Chicago, New England and Baltimore.

The rating is partially based on potential, as Greg Ellis is rehabbing a torn Achilles and Anthony Spencer has yet to play a regulation down. The Cowboys will have to record sacks on pace with the Chargers and Ravens if they hope to keep their high perch.

Think Of It As Julius Jones Versus the Rest of the NFL…

…not just Julius Jones versus Marion Barber, for those of you with JJ/MB3 fatigue.

ESPN.com’s Nate Ravitz weighs in on the familiar Cowboys’ running back debate today. Ravitz’s column is ostensibly a fantasy football analysis, but he bases his analysis on the overall talent and expected production of the backs, so the article has value for the non-fantasy-motivated Cowboy fan as well.

Ravitz comes down squarely on the side of Barber. His analysis centers around the gap in YPC between the two backs, and their likeliness to get stopped behind the line versus their propensity for big plays:

Last season, Jones averaged 4.1 yards per carry, while Barber’s YPC was 4.8. That’s a glaring difference, and not just for the obvious reasons. Barber actually had a handicap in this category because he received more carries in short-yardage situations. In fact, if you remove just the touchdowns from three yards out and in, Barber’s YPC swells to 5.1, and Jones‘ … well, he didn’t score any short-yardage touchdowns.

One of the main reasons why Jones trails Barber in yards-per-carry is his propensity for getting stuffed behind the line of scrimmage. According to STATS Inc., Barber was stuffed just six times in 135 carries, and his .044 stuff percentage was the second-best mark in the NFL. In stark contrast, Jones was stuffed 26 times in 267 carries, producing a .097 rate that was among the very worst in the game.

Jones also averaged only 4.0 yards per carry on first-and-10 situations — again, one of the very worst marks in the league. And for all of the talk about his big-play ability, Jones, in those 267 carries, had just five runs of 20 yards or more, one more than Barber (135 carries),Wali Lundy (124) and Vernand Morency (91).

The YPC argument is one we’ve heard before, and as most Cowboy fans know, it is not as simple as Ravitz makes it out to be. Julius Jones got the bulk of his carries early in games against fresh defenses. MB3 logged most of his carries late in games, when defenses were tired and Dallas was in two TE road-grade mode. This can account for much of the YPC disparity, and probably SOME of Jones’ higher likelihood of getting stuffed behind the line.

The potentially new information here, though, is the comparison between Jones and the rest of the league, not just between Jones and Barber. Jones’ count of 5 big plays and his high “stuff” rating of .097 put him near the bottom of the league amongst comparable backs, and it is less easy to justify his difficulties from that perspective.

While we can understand why it would be easier for MB3 to break a 20+ yard run late in a game, there is no reason Julius should be in the same category of 20+ yarders as runners like Wali Lundy and Vernand Morency, who did not solely run late in games, who received far fewer overall carries, and who are overall not exceptionally talented or productive backs. Similarly, the .097 number is alarming because it is reportedly low relative to all the other backs in the league, not just relative to Barber.

As a Julius Jones booster, I am looking forward to what should be a make-or-break season for him in what he claims is a friendlier offense to his skill set. It is worthwhile to note that it was Bill Parcells, not Wade Phillips, who passed on Steven Jackson, Greg Jones, and others to draft Julius Jones with Dallas’ first pick of the 2004 draft. Phillips has no personal stake in Jones’ success and should feel no pressure to play him, particularly with Jones becoming a free agent at the end of this season. The competition this year should be decided solely on merit.

Meet Your Draft Picks: Courtney Brown

Courtney Brown, CB, Cal-Poly, 7^th Round Draft Pick 

Measurables: 6′1”, 196 pounds, 4.39 forty yard dash, 41.5 inch vertical jump 

Positives: Possesses the physical tools necessary to become a top-flight NFL defensive back. Excellent size and overall athleticism. After tearing his ACL in 2004, appears to have recovered almost completely in terms of speed, jumping ability, and quickness. Can run with most receivers, possesses a second gear when the ball is in the air, and accelerates well when closing. Shows good burst and change-of-direction necessary for man-to-man coverage. Has the strength and size to be an effective press corner. Originally recruited to college as a WR and competes well for jump balls. Dangerous open field runner after INTs. Is an adequate open field tackler in run support and could potentially contribute on special teams at the NFL level. Tied the Cal-Poly single season INT record with 7 picks in 2005 and was recognized as a second team All-American. 

Negatives: Although Brown was not originally invited to the combine because of doubts about his speed (ran a 4.6 in the spring prior to his senior season), he ran in the 4.3’s at his Pro Day workouts, which should lay those concerns to rest. As a DI-AA player, he did not face top WR/QB competition very often. Gave up 9 catches for 92 yards, including a 43 yard completion, to James Jones last season. Occasionally has problems with footwork, particularly when forced to turn and run. Can be fooled by play action and is at times too aggressive. Though he possesses good size overall, is somewhat thin for his frame and could possibly get pushed around by bigger WRs. Very little kick return experience and could not be expected to contribute as a return man right out of the gate. Additionally, comes with all the standard concerns about a skill position player who has sustained a major knee injury. 

Outlook: Like many small school prospects, it is difficult to get a true read on Brown’s NFL potential at this point. He faced very little elite competition while at Cal-Poly, and only recorded 1 INT his senior season. Since this followed his 7 INT season his junior year, this was likely due in large part to opposing offenses avoiding Brown’s side of the field. His junior and senior seasons were strong, but there is little film against quality opponents upon which to judge Brown’s ability to compete at the next level.

That said, he certainly has all the physical tools necessary to give him a shot at making an NFL roster. He’s fast, he’s big, and he’s got the burst and closing ability required of an NFL DB. He was able to get by on athletic ability quite a bit in college, and will need to be coached well on proper technique before he can be trusted on the field, even as a nickel or dime package guy.

At this point, Brown is a developmental player. However, he is an exciting developmental player who has the potential to turn into an absolute steal in the 7^th a few seasons from now. This tidbit from Brown’s scouting report on NFL.com should give hope to any Cowboys fan:

“Compares To: Chris McAlister, Baltimore — Brown has exceptional quickness and is a big cornerback with natural hands for the interception, but like McAlister he tends to like making open-field tackles or attacking the ball rather than play in run support. He has a developing frame with good strength, showing it well when jamming receivers, but is not an explosive tackler. He will bring good value in the nickel and dime packages, but needs to get more aggressive in run force.”

Chris McAlister was arguably the NFL’s best corner in 2003-2004, when Champ Bailey was still getting lit up by Jerry Porter on MNF twice a year, so it is a bit of a stretch to compare a 7^th round rookie to him right off the bat. However, the comparison at least makes it clear that Brown COULD be a real contributor at some point down the line, if he is coached appropriately and puts the time in in the film and weight rooms.

Meet Your Draft Picks: Deon Anderson

Deon Anderson, FB, University of Connecticut, 6th round draft pick

Measurables: 5′10″, 243 pounds, 4.73 forty-yard dash, 403 pound bench press, 600 pound squat, 27/31 Wonderlic score

Positives: Possesses good size for an NFL fullback. Rarely goes down on the first hit and is a weapon as a short-yardage runner. Displays good physical toughness and seems to enjoy contact. Possesses above average hands and does not drop many passes. Fairly good speed for his size. Has special teams experience and excels on coverage duty; he tackles well (originally recruited to play linebacker) and can be an immediate contributor for an NFL team in that area. Despite pedestrian rushing and receiving numbers his senior year, Anderson was awarded the Huskies; Most Valuable Player award due to his attitude, leadership, and the enthusiasm with which he practiced and played.

Negatives: Demonstrates average to below-average blocking ability. Has poor balance, fails to lock onto defenders at times and has some problems sustaining blocks. Is not fundamentally sound as a blocker; displays poor technique and does not hit with much explosion, despite his strength and speed. Appears hesitant at times and has problems getting into position at the second level. Doesn’t have the burst to get to the corner. Is not a big play threat. Has some character concerns regarding his academics and off-field issues while at UConn; missed the 2005 season for unspecified reasons and looked into transferring before returning to the team as a walk-on in January of 2006.

Outlook: Anderson is a bit of a “tweener” when it comes to the fullback position, in that he does not excel at any one particular thing. He is a decent short-yardage runner but displays very little elusiveness and is not a threat to do anything on the second level. He has adequate hands as a check-down receiver, but cannot do much after the catch. And perhaps most importantly for a Cowboys team which already has two above average running backs, Anderson is not a naturally talented blocker. Despite his zeal for contact and physical toughness, he does not excel at delivering the blow at the point of attack, and he has trouble locking onto defenders.

So while Anderson is not particularly good at any of the typical things upon which a fullback is evaluated, he is not horrible at any of them either. Combine this with his excellent special teams coverage experience at Connecticut, and it is reasonable that an NFL team would have taken a chance on him. Anderson is capable of contributing on special teams right away. He was originally recruited by the Huskies to play linebacker, and took to his role as wedge-buster during the 2004 and 2006 seasons. He has the speed to get downfield in a hurry and he tackles well. If he makes the Dallas opening day roster, it would be reasonable to expect him to be on the field as a special teamer right from Week 1. The question remains as to whether or not he can improve his fullback play, particularly his blocking ability, enough to warrant that roster spot.

Anderson also comes with some minor but not insignificant character concerns. He missed the 2005 season due to unspecified problems with the law related to disorderly conduct. However, Anderson walked on to the 2006 UConn team and paid his own way in tuition his entire senior year so that he could be a part of the team and graduate. Anderson was a favorite of teammates and seems to have partially alleviated any concern that he would be a liability in the locker room.

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