Pre-Training Camp Practices: What We Learned About the Cowboys Offense
June 15, 2010
Tony Gutierrez - AP
We learned that Doug Free is the Cowboys starting left tackle. Will DeMarcus Ware teach him a thing or two in training camp?
The exciting expectations for the 2010 Dallas Cowboys made for some newsworthy weeks during OTAs and this past weekend’s mini-camp.
Having a first round pick at wide receiver showcasing his skills helped to draw even more national media attention to Valley Ranch. The pick even caused a ripple effect at the position as one veteran chose to sit out the first few weeks of OTAs.
Aside from Dez Bryant, Patrick Crayton and the rest of the Dallas wideouts, we learned many other things about what this offense will take with it into training camp. It will certainly take with it at least one new starter from the ‘09 offense: left tackle Doug Free. At that position and several more, such as at running back, slot receiver, fullback, and just about every backup spot on the offensive line, this unit will also take into camp a high level of competition.
Other than a few nicks and sore muscles, the Cowboys offense ran through a relatively healthy string of practices. This allowed the coaches to try some players at different positions. We learned that Miles Austin could be utilized more from the slot this season, and that the coaching staff will test the versatility of the tight ends and offensive linemen.
The Offensive Gameplan
We learned that the offense will focus on being more efficient in the red zone.
On 50 trips into what turned out to be their Twilight Zone too many times, the Cowboys scored points on 80-percent of their possessions (40). While that might sound decent, guess again. That ranked them just 24th out of 32 teams, hanging out in the neighborhood of Detroit (80.6), Oakland (79.3), Atlanta (80.4) and even a far cry from Buffalo’s 86.8.
Now of the 50 trips into this 20-yard piece of bumpy real estate where you just have to be money in this league, the Cowboys scored 26 touchdowns, checking them in at a 52-percent rate. That ranked them 14th, or middle of the pack. Heck, Tampa Bay was 51.6 percent.
At Quarterback
We learned that Tony Romo has been working hard on improving a specific aspect to his game, which he prefers to keep a secret. I think Tim MacMahon has it on the nose though.
Romo hasn’t revealed it, but my bet is that he’s trying to improve his back-shoulder throws. Those are especially important in the red zone, where the Cowboys were mediocre last season. He has weapons — Roy Williams, Dez Bryant, Martellus Bennett — who are built to make those kind of catches.
Or perhaps Romo is working on unleashing some aspect of his game that continues the improvement of his accuracy.
Quarterback Tony Romo is known for a number of things — his improvisational skills, his ability to throw on the run, even his golf game and his famous girlfriends. But he showed off some remarkable accuracy Friday, finding his receivers on several very accurate passes, including one he threaded to wide receiver Miles Austin through triple coverage by safety Alan Ball and cornerbacks Cletis Gordon and Jamar Wall.
As for the backups, we learned that soon-to-be 38-year old Jon Kitna still has a rocket arm and that Stephen McGee must make the most of an extended preseason to show he can be Kitna’s successor.
“The fact that he wasn’t in a real sophisticated pass offense in college and then getting hurt in training camp, all those things kind of compounded on him,” Cowboys quarterbacks coach Wade Wilson said.
“Then, you get no reps once the season starts except for the scout team. He was a little bit behind as far as that part of it. But the year was gained as far as learning the offense, the mental part of it. He’s real good with that. He just needs to apply it to what he’s seeing out there.”
This is a big preseason for McGee. Kitna will turn 38 in September, and the Cowboys need to find out if McGee is their backup of the future.
On Protecting the Quarterbacks
We learned that Andre Gurode can hold his own against Jay Ratliff and Marcus Spears and that Pat McQuistan is one of the stronger players on the team. We also learned more about Doug Free’s learning curve.
“He’s doing great,” line coach Hudson Houck said.
“Each day he gets a little bit better. That’s what we’re looking at. Does a guy hit a wall or does he get even better? He’s got all the tools. Got good feet, good reach, he understands the offense and he tries hard. So if we don’t screw him up as coaches, we’ll be OK.”
We learned that Alex Barron has some skills against pass-rushers.
When facing a team with an exceptionally fast right defensive end, the Cowboys might consider playing Barron instead of Free. Demarcus Ware — who, admittedly, makes a lot of blockers look bad — blazed untouched past Free, but Barron had both the size and quickness to keep Ware at bay.
We learned what the Cowboys plans would be if Leonard Davis was out.
With Davis out, the Cowboys mixed-and-matched their offensive line using Kyle Kosier at center and moving Pat McQuistan to both guard spots. One formation had Kosier at center and Andre Gurode, the starting center, moved to right guard.
We also learned that RT Robert Brewster’s progress hasn’t disappointed.
Cowboys coaches and scouts praised the work of backup right tackle Robert Brewster.
O-Line coach Hudson Houck considers his players’ versatility as essential to preparing for the season.
“We will always do that,” Houck said of some occasional shuffling.
“We have to have guys play different sides. If we have a center go down immediately, we might have to move a center to guard. It’s all about experimenting and moving guys around. The starting unit is going to be the starting unit. There’s nothing radical going on here.”
About All Those Receivers
We learned Roy Williams is working on getting lower, improving his initial step, and that Dez Bryant just needs as much time on the field as possible.
“I think for him just like with everybody else, it’s just getting the reps on the field,” Garrett said. “Being with the system, breaking the huddle, playing with our players, against our defense at more of a game-type tempo. Those are important things. So that’s valuable time for him.”
Also from Garrett, we learned that Bryant is learning the playbook at a good pace.
“That’s when you learn the so-called alphabet of the system,” Garrett said. “You learn the formations. You learn how we call different routes by numbers. You learn the progression of the numbers in the routes. And when you get that it’s like learning how to read. You’re just putting things together, and it becomes a sentence, it becomes a paragraph, it becomes a play in our case.
“But he has some familiarity with this kind of system where he came from at Oklahoma State, so he seemed to pick it up well right from the start and he’s been fine with that part of it.”
We learned of some grumblings that Kevin Ogletree hasn’t shown much progress.
Ogletree has shined whenever he’s gotten a chance in the games, but whispers around Valley Ranch suggest he’s had some trouble with assignments in practices this summer - lining up in the right spot and running his routes correctly.
But you wouldn’t get that if you heard how Jerry Jones “gushed” about him.
“I see a really focused player that is being called upon to play every position out there,” Jones said. “They are asking him to do everything there is at receiver — Slot, X, Y — and that is impressive. Boy, is he up to the challenge.
“He’s having to concentrate and having to work. After his first about 120 days here, there was no question about his speed, his quickness, his athletic ability and his instincts. He’s got it, but if he’ll carry it through and focus and be more consistent … then he’s got a chance to be a real player.”
We learned that Martellus Bennett is improving as a receiving threat.
TE Martellus Bennett looked to have made some progress over the weekend. He made a nice catch and a better first move on a quick throw from second string quarterback Jon Kitna during practice Saturday morning. After running a crisp route and receiving the ball over the middle in 7-on-7 drills, Bennett made a quick turn upfield to shuck the attempted tackler, and it looked as though there was some considerable real estate in front of him.
Bennett did, however, have a false start on the weekend, as well as a couple of drops.
Marty B is also focusing on building a rapport with Romo.
“It’s kind of like pleasing a woman,” Bennett said, referring to his attempt to establish a rapport with Tony Romo. “Whatever he likes, that’s what I try to do. Wherever Romo needs me to be, that’s where I try to be.”
[snip]
“Me and Romo are getting on the same page,” said Bennett, who frequently asks Romo for feedback after running routes in practice. “He knows what’s in my repertoire. Now he knows what I do and what I don’t do.”
On Team Chemistry
Finally, we learned that all the way from the ownership on down to the players’ pets, the Cowboys are very close-knit–almost like family.
Felix Jones and Miles Austin walked onto the practice field wearing sunglasses. Marcus Spears and Roy E. Williams wore stylish hats during stretching. Martellus Bennett had his dog, tied up to the playclock, watch practice. Marc Colombo chatted with his kids before practice.
Jerry Jones parked his black towncar next to his two-story suite sitting next to the practice fields before walking into the hot sun to watch things. He had a long talk with Romo as the second-and-third teamers got some snaps.
Pre-Training Camp Practices: What We Learned About the Cowboys Offense
June 15, 2010
Tony Gutierrez - AP
We learned that Doug Free is the Cowboys starting left tackle. Will DeMarcus Ware teach him a thing or two in training camp?
The exciting expectations for the 2010 Dallas Cowboys made for some newsworthy weeks during OTAs and this past weekend’s mini-camp.
Having a first round pick at wide receiver showcasing his skills helped to draw even more national media attention to Valley Ranch. The pick even caused a ripple effect at the position as one veteran chose to sit out the first few weeks of OTAs.
Aside from Dez Bryant, Patrick Crayton and the rest of the Dallas wideouts, we learned many other things about what this offense will take with it into training camp. It will certainly take with it at least one new starter from the ‘09 offense: left tackle Doug Free. At that position and several more, such as at running back, slot receiver, fullback, and just about every backup spot on the offensive line, this unit will also take into camp a high level of competition.
Other than a few nicks and sore muscles, the Cowboys offense ran through a relatively healthy string of practices. This allowed the coaches to try some players at different positions. We learned that Miles Austin could be utilized more from the slot this season, and that the coaching staff will test the versatility of the tight ends and offensive linemen.
The Offensive Gameplan
We learned that the offense will focus on being more efficient in the red zone.
On 50 trips into what turned out to be their Twilight Zone too many times, the Cowboys scored points on 80-percent of their possessions (40). While that might sound decent, guess again. That ranked them just 24th out of 32 teams, hanging out in the neighborhood of Detroit (80.6), Oakland (79.3), Atlanta (80.4) and even a far cry from Buffalo’s 86.8.
Now of the 50 trips into this 20-yard piece of bumpy real estate where you just have to be money in this league, the Cowboys scored 26 touchdowns, checking them in at a 52-percent rate. That ranked them 14th, or middle of the pack. Heck, Tampa Bay was 51.6 percent.
At Quarterback
We learned that Tony Romo has been working hard on improving a specific aspect to his game, which he prefers to keep a secret. I think Tim MacMahon has it on the nose though.
Romo hasn’t revealed it, but my bet is that he’s trying to improve his back-shoulder throws. Those are especially important in the red zone, where the Cowboys were mediocre last season. He has weapons — Roy Williams, Dez Bryant, Martellus Bennett — who are built to make those kind of catches.
Or perhaps Romo is working on unleashing some aspect of his game that continues the improvement of his accuracy.
Quarterback Tony Romo is known for a number of things — his improvisational skills, his ability to throw on the run, even his golf game and his famous girlfriends. But he showed off some remarkable accuracy Friday, finding his receivers on several very accurate passes, including one he threaded to wide receiver Miles Austin through triple coverage by safety Alan Ball and cornerbacks Cletis Gordon and Jamar Wall.
As for the backups, we learned that soon-to-be 38-year old Jon Kitna still has a rocket arm and that Stephen McGee must make the most of an extended preseason to show he can be Kitna’s successor.
“The fact that he wasn’t in a real sophisticated pass offense in college and then getting hurt in training camp, all those things kind of compounded on him,” Cowboys quarterbacks coach Wade Wilson said.
“Then, you get no reps once the season starts except for the scout team. He was a little bit behind as far as that part of it. But the year was gained as far as learning the offense, the mental part of it. He’s real good with that. He just needs to apply it to what he’s seeing out there.”
This is a big preseason for McGee. Kitna will turn 38 in September, and the Cowboys need to find out if McGee is their backup of the future.
On Protecting the Quarterbacks
We learned that Andre Gurode can hold his own against Jay Ratliff and Marcus Spears and that Pat McQuistan is one of the stronger players on the team. We also learned more about Doug Free’s learning curve.
“He’s doing great,” line coach Hudson Houck said.
“Each day he gets a little bit better. That’s what we’re looking at. Does a guy hit a wall or does he get even better? He’s got all the tools. Got good feet, good reach, he understands the offense and he tries hard. So if we don’t screw him up as coaches, we’ll be OK.”
We learned that Alex Barron has some skills against pass-rushers.
When facing a team with an exceptionally fast right defensive end, the Cowboys might consider playing Barron instead of Free. Demarcus Ware — who, admittedly, makes a lot of blockers look bad — blazed untouched past Free, but Barron had both the size and quickness to keep Ware at bay.
We learned what the Cowboys plans would be if Leonard Davis was out.
With Davis out, the Cowboys mixed-and-matched their offensive line using Kyle Kosier at center and moving Pat McQuistan to both guard spots. One formation had Kosier at center and Andre Gurode, the starting center, moved to right guard.
We also learned that RT Robert Brewster’s progress hasn’t disappointed.
Cowboys coaches and scouts praised the work of backup right tackle Robert Brewster.
O-Line coach Hudson Houck considers his players’ versatility as essential to preparing for the season.
“We will always do that,” Houck said of some occasional shuffling.
“We have to have guys play different sides. If we have a center go down immediately, we might have to move a center to guard. It’s all about experimenting and moving guys around. The starting unit is going to be the starting unit. There’s nothing radical going on here.”
About All Those Receivers
We learned Roy Williams is working on getting lower, improving his initial step, and that Dez Bryant just needs as much time on the field as possible.
“I think for him just like with everybody else, it’s just getting the reps on the field,” Garrett said. “Being with the system, breaking the huddle, playing with our players, against our defense at more of a game-type tempo. Those are important things. So that’s valuable time for him.”
Also from Garrett, we learned that Bryant is learning the playbook at a good pace.
“That’s when you learn the so-called alphabet of the system,” Garrett said. “You learn the formations. You learn how we call different routes by numbers. You learn the progression of the numbers in the routes. And when you get that it’s like learning how to read. You’re just putting things together, and it becomes a sentence, it becomes a paragraph, it becomes a play in our case.
“But he has some familiarity with this kind of system where he came from at Oklahoma State, so he seemed to pick it up well right from the start and he’s been fine with that part of it.”
We learned of some grumblings that Kevin Ogletree hasn’t shown much progress.
Ogletree has shined whenever he’s gotten a chance in the games, but whispers around Valley Ranch suggest he’s had some trouble with assignments in practices this summer - lining up in the right spot and running his routes correctly.
But you wouldn’t get that if you heard how Jerry Jones “gushed” about him.
“I see a really focused player that is being called upon to play every position out there,” Jones said. “They are asking him to do everything there is at receiver — Slot, X, Y — and that is impressive. Boy, is he up to the challenge.
“He’s having to concentrate and having to work. After his first about 120 days here, there was no question about his speed, his quickness, his athletic ability and his instincts. He’s got it, but if he’ll carry it through and focus and be more consistent … then he’s got a chance to be a real player.”
We learned that Martellus Bennett is improving as a receiving threat.
TE Martellus Bennett looked to have made some progress over the weekend. He made a nice catch and a better first move on a quick throw from second string quarterback Jon Kitna during practice Saturday morning. After running a crisp route and receiving the ball over the middle in 7-on-7 drills, Bennett made a quick turn upfield to shuck the attempted tackler, and it looked as though there was some considerable real estate in front of him.
Bennett did, however, have a false start on the weekend, as well as a couple of drops.
Marty B is also focusing on building a rapport with Romo.
“It’s kind of like pleasing a woman,” Bennett said, referring to his attempt to establish a rapport with Tony Romo. “Whatever he likes, that’s what I try to do. Wherever Romo needs me to be, that’s where I try to be.”
[snip]
“Me and Romo are getting on the same page,” said Bennett, who frequently asks Romo for feedback after running routes in practice. “He knows what’s in my repertoire. Now he knows what I do and what I don’t do.”
On Team Chemistry
Finally, we learned that all the way from the ownership on down to the players’ pets, the Cowboys are very close-knit–almost like family.
Felix Jones and Miles Austin walked onto the practice field wearing sunglasses. Marcus Spears and Roy E. Williams wore stylish hats during stretching. Martellus Bennett had his dog, tied up to the playclock, watch practice. Marc Colombo chatted with his kids before practice.
Jerry Jones parked his black towncar next to his two-story suite sitting next to the practice fields before walking into the hot sun to watch things. He had a long talk with Romo as the second-and-third teamers got some snaps.
Old Moose Wine in New Cowboys Bottles: Conclusions
June 4, 2010
Matt Slocum - AP
The Cowboys need G Leonard Davis to block as hard as he rocks. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Today I end my series on the Cowboys running game, and the role fullbacks and H-back have and will play in it by offering four conclusions:
1. Strick around a while, Mr. Anderson. Deon Anderson is one of this year’s “black hats” the small list of Cowboys fans love to hate. I’ve been guilty of downplaying his value myself, but the numbers prove me wrong. With perennials Flozell Adams, Cory Proctor and Bobby Carpenter joining Roy Williams the safety on the out list, Anderson will nonetheless inch up a bit to a spot nearer Roy Williams the receiver atop the bad Cowboys totem.
Don’t make the same mistake. Yes, his receiving skills leave a lot to be desired, but fullback, as I demonstrated on Wednesday, retains a very important role in the Cowboys run attack. Compare the average number of snaps from scrimmage Anderson took last year, compared to 3rd WR Patrick Crayton:
- Crayton — 21 snaps per game;
- Anderson — 19 snaps per game
Unless John Phillips takes a quantum leap forward, or Martellus Bennett has a Miles Austin-like breakout which puts Jason Witten on near full-time H-back duty, Deon not only has a fairly secure roster spot, but an important part-time role.
Consequently:
2. Rent, don’t buy, Mr. Sicko. Unless Scott Sicko makes a rookie splash, and shows blocking skills which surpass everybody’s expectations, the undrafted free agent faces long, long odds. He’s already one of the players fans will look to root for, in the Justin Beriault mold, but that 5.4 average Dallas posted from the 22 set last year shows Anderson is the main lead blocker, and it’s going to take exceptional, sustained blocking from one of the young TEs to move Deon aside.
3. Maybe Patrick Crayton is on to something. I’m opposed to moving Crayton. Dez Bryant is still a rookie and Roy Williams has never played on par with his talking in a Cowboys uniform, but the large percentage of one-wideout sets suggest that the 4th receiver will barely see the field. Dez Bryant will likely grab those 21 or so snaps Crayton got last year, and Miles Austin will likely get the vast majority of plays when Dallas goes with just one receiver.
Crayton has a lot of value to Dallas as an insurance receiver, but he may have little more beyond that. I doubt the 4th wideout gets more than four or five snaps a game in 2010.
4. Keep your eyes on the guards. The Cowboys running attack has its strengths but the tell on any eventual return to dominance will come from improved guard play, not from any dramatic change in fullback or tight end play. When the Cowboys can find two big youngster who can plow defensive tackles into the astroturf the coaches can won’t have to bring in three support blockers in addition to the linemen. They can make do with two. They’ll be able to run regularly when the team is facing a 3rd and goal from the four yard line.
The team will be able to regularly convert 3rd-and-goal from the one!
In the meantime, super-size your game-time snacks and beverages of choice. If the Cowboys are going to keep running heavy, and I expect them to do it again, you may as well load up with them.
The VRR: 2010 NFL Draft Dallas Cowboys Edition
April 23, 2010
Intermission. Time to stretch our legs, crack our backs, and do a little VRR-style reflecting.
Let’s see. In the first round, a new weapon on the outside in Dez Bryant. You’re welcome, Tony Romo. And in the second, a straight-up football player of an inside backer in Sean Lee. You’re welcome Wade Phillips.
The Cowboys deemed both players as worthy of necessitating trades to move up. And that they did, rolling away their 3rd to the Patriots for their 4th to grab Bryant, and then trading their original 4th to the Eagles to secure Lee. The last time the Eagles allowed Dallas to trade up for a LB it was for Anthony Spencer. That turned out pretty well for the ‘Boys.
Tomorrow, the draft recommences with Rounds 4-7 at 10AM (EST).
While we wait, shall we debate a little about some veteran trade bait rumors? With a new top-notch WR and a future tackling machine in the hopper, those two positions are getting rather crowded.
Wouldn’t we all love to have another 4th to look forward to with our Saturday morning coffee? How ’bout a 5th to replace the one lost from the Montrae Holland trade?
Free safety and offensive line are obviously still needs. Are we going to pore over who is still left? Of course, BTBers. That’s what we do here!
Make the jump for more VRR.
Draft hats, ON!
Mocking Dan at SBN’s Mocking the Draft lists his Best-available players still left on the board. Using his list, let’s first check out the offensive linemen.
Bruce Campbell | OT | 6′7, 310 pounds | Maryland
Ciron Black | OT | 6′5, 328 pounds | LSU
Selvish Capers | OT | 6′6, 290 pounds | West Virginia
Kyle Calloway | OT | 6′7, 315 pounds | Iowa
Sergio Render | G | 6′3, 314 pounds | Virginia Tech
Mitch Petrus | G | 6′5, 288 pounds | Arkansas
Matt Tennant | C | 6′4, 291 pounds | Boston College
And did I miss something, or is Marshall Newhouse still available? And don’t forget about OT Jason Fox from Miami and the controversial (is that the right word?) Tony Washington.
As for safeties:
Reshad Jones | S | 6′2, 212 pounds | Georgia
Robert Johnson | S | 6′2, 200 pounds | Utah
Kam Chancellor | S | 6′4, 224 pounds | Virginia Tech
Terrell Skinner | S | 6′2, 214 pounds | Maryland
Harry Coleman from LSU and Kurt Coleman from Ohio State are also still available.
Other names of note that might interest the ‘Boys are CBs Akwasi Owusu-Ansah and Walter Thurmond III, NT Cam Thomas, and OLB Roddrick Muckelroy.
And if a trade involving a DE, TE, or RB should occur, there are plenty options still available at those positions.
A lot of players left to be drafted. Throw any other names you think the Cowboys might go after in the comments.
Speaking of trades, will the Cowboys unload a player or two for an extra pick or what? We’ve been hearing all about the possibility for the last few days. Tomorrow will be the day if such a deal is done.
Jay Glazer reports that the Cowboys led the league in offering current players as trade bait.
The team dangling the most players was the Dallas Cowboys, who offered up former first-round pick Marcus Spears, former first-round pick Bobby Carpenter and wide receiver Sam Hurd, among others, to the masses.
Wide receiver Patrick Crayton was offered to a select few teams.
Calvin Watkins says that “A source said Thursday night the Cowboys will entertain offers for backup wide receiver Sam Hurd.” Another source also told him the team is shopping Patrick Crayton.
The Dallas Cowboys have given agent Fred Lyles permission to seek a trade for wide receiver Patrick Crayton, according to a source. The Cowboys are shopping two wide receivers after selecting Dez Bryant in the first round of NFL draft Thursday night.
Sam Hurd was placed on the trading block after his agent, Ian Greengross, expressed concerns over his client’s role with the team.
Brad Biggs speculates that perhaps the Chiefs would want a Dallas wideout.
Maybe the Cowboys can make a minor deal with the Kansas City Chiefs. After all, coach Todd Haley is familiar with Hurd from his time in Dallas. The Chiefs certainly have needs at receiver and every team can use a boost on special teams.
Soooo…Mr. Jones, is Roy Williams on the trade block as well?
“We won’t be moving Roy,” the owner and GM said.
Before the draft, Coach Phillips did his best to put players’ minds at ease about their future with the team.
“I told them we draft players every year and there’s always competition, but I’m counting on you guys to make the difference on this football team,” Phillips said.
“If somebody comes in to compete, that’s part of the game, but don’t get your feeling hurt no matter who we take. I even kidded Romo, if we take a quarterback you’ve got to smile and go on.”
Here is what the trade up for Sean Lee entailed:
Dallas acquired the 55th overall pick from the Philadelphia Eagles to use on Lee. The Cowboys gave their second-rounder, No. 59 overall, and one of their fourth-rounders (No. 125) to the Eagles.
That leaves Dallas with these remaining picks:
Round 4, Pick 21 (119) (From Patriots)
Round 6, Pick 27 (196)
Round 7, Pick 27 (234)
Matt Mosely received a text from within the War Room about what the team thinks of Lee.
Here’s what someone from the Cowboys’ draft room just texted me about Lee: “Character, instincts, production, work ethic.”
Eric Edholm at PFT is quite impressed with Dallas’ draft so far.
Bryant was one of the stories of the first day of the draft, a classic Jerry Jones coup. He has it all: pure talent, No. 1 WR ability and maturity questions. Sounds like a classic Cowboys pick to me. Keep him away from Deion, and the kid likely will be a star.
But don’t overlook Lee. Sure, that LB position is loaded in Dallas, but Lee will be a special-teams maven, he’ll fight his way onto the field any way he can and will be a factor in a few different spots.
Dez Bryant has got to be an even bigger Cowboys fan now that he’s on the team!
“I couldn’t believe that I was being drafted by the Dallas Cowboys,” Bryant said. “It was just unreal. I’ve said that word a million times. But that’s the feeling. It’s just unreal.”
Jerry Jones on the reports that Dez Bryant has an irregular heartbeat:
“All of our doctors reviewed that and it’s just not something we were concerned about,” Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones told ESPNDallas.
“As a matter of fact, in visiting with experts in that area, they really did not in any way make a special notice of it. More importantly, more than anything, it isn’t and it wouldn’t have a negative impact on his ability to be a ball player or effect his ability to have a normal life.”
The NFL Draft by Numbers: Do the Cowboys draft well?
April 19, 2010
By now, you’ve immersed yourself so thoroughly in all things to do with the draft, little could surprise you anymore. You’ve scoured all the mocks, you’ve looked at all the footage you could find, you’ve read all the scouting reports - and like me, you’ve most assuredly fallen prey to the NFL’s hype machine.
This is the deepest draft ever! Studded with future hall of famers! This draft will turn that franchise around! Tebow a first rounder! All offensive linemen are instant starters! You get the drift.
Like every year, a handful of “future Hall of Famers” will turn out to be busts, some late round picks will turn out to be franchise players, and a draft class that gets a mediocre grade immediately after the draft may turn into an excellent draft class after a couple of years.
The truth will eventually come to light, and it’ll start with the first minicamps where every team begins to find out whether their draft picks can actually play football.
But is the draft really such a crap shoot? Today we take a quantitative look at some of the Cowboys’ recent drafts to find out.
In my recent post Building through the Draft? I showed that there was little to no correlation between a teams’ winning record and its roster make-up, i.e. how many players on a team were drafted by that team and how many were UDFAs and how many joined as free agents. But the findings did not answer the questions of whether teams that draft well also have better W/L records.
To answer that question, we will first have to define what constitutes a good draft versus a bad draft. To do that, I will once again the “Approximate Value” (AV) metric developed by Doug Drinen at Pro-football-reference.com (PFR).
In my own words: Approximate Value is an attempt to assign a value to any player at any position for any given year, by weighting position specific metrics (i.e. yards or points scored/allowed) with an indicator for durability (total games played and seasons as their team’s primary starter) and quality (Pro Bowl and All Pro nominations) and then normalizing all this at a team level. Read up on it at PFR if you need to know more.
Career Approximate Value (CarAV) then sums up the AV per season for the entire NFL career of a given player. This means that an average player who starts for 12 years could end up with a higher CarAV than a two-time Pro Bowler whose career ends after 5 years.
If you’re still with me so far, now would be a good time to prepare yourself for some statistical mumbo jumbo. I’ve tried hard to make the data visually self-explanatory without going into more mathematical detail than is suitable for an NFL blog. Still there’s no avoiding the number crunching if you want to evaluate drafts.
I’ve chosen to look at the draft classes from 1980 through 2008. This gives me 29 years worth of data, which I think is large enough to draw some fairly robust conclusions from. The analysis covers all 8,321 players drafted in those 29 years, and each one has his own CarAV.
1. Draft class value by year
In the graph on the left, I’ve plotted the total value of a draft class by year for the 29 years we’re looking at. You’ll notice that the values hover roughly between four and five thousand from 1980 to about 2001, where they then start to decline. The decline is simply due to the fact that the players drafted e.g. in 2005 have an NFL career of ‘only’ 5 years so far, whereas a player drafted in the 80s could easily have had a 10 year or longer NFL career in which to accumulate AV ‘points’. In time, the later draft classes will all move up close to the mean.
I’ve also highlighted four years in red, which the data says were standout drafts. You’ve always heard that the ‘83 draft was the strongest draft in recent history? Well, here’s the proof: in terms of AV, the class of 1983 is the best draft class of the last 30 years. Leading the AV rankings are six Hall of Famers, Dan Marino, John Elway, Bruce Matthews, Darell Green, Jim Kelly and Eric Dickerson. The 1993 and 1996 classes also stand out. Four of the top ten players of the class of ‘96 (Ray Lewis, Terrell Owens, Brian Dawkins and Muhsin Muhammad) are still active as of today, as are many others, so that AV number may still move up. I’ll get to the 2006 class a little later.
For these yearly numbers, I’ve summed up every single draft pick, which means the number of draft picks by year is significantly different, from a high of 336 in ‘84 and ‘85 to a low of 222 in ‘94. If I were to limit the draft picks to only 222 per year, the numbers in the graph would not change significantly, an indication that on average there is little value left towards the end of the draft.
2. The value of recent drafts
The graph on the right shows the AV of the draft classes from 2003 through 2008. I’ve excluded the 2009 class from this whole analysis because the values after one year are too low to even begin any type of coherent analysis.
Importantly, to keep these numbers as comparable as possible, I’ve limited this analysis to 224 picks per year (7 rounds with 32 picks each).
A linear regression (the black line) across these six data points shows two things: A) an astonishingly high R², meaning that the model is highly accurate, and B) early indications are that the class of 2006 could turn out to be an exceptionally good draft class.
In terms of AV the class of 2006 is already 20% better than the other 5 years along the regression line. The Dallas draft class in 2006? The top four picks were: 1st round: Bobby Carpenter, 2nd: Anthony Fasano, 3rd: Jason Hatcher, 4th: Skyler Green. There is no question that the Cowboys whiffed on this draft. Whiffing and a draft is bad enough, whiffing on a draft that has above average value is even worse.
3. The Approximate Value of each draft pick
To understand if some teams draft better than others, we first need to understand the historical value of each draft pick. The assumption here obviously is that the no. 1 pick generates more value than the no. 5 pick, which in turn generates more value than the no. 10 pick, and so on.
Taking a quarter century of data from 1980-2004 (I left out 05-08 because the low numbers screw up the data too much), and looking at the first 224 picks (the equivalent to 32 picks in 7 rounds), we get the result we see in the graph on left. The graph clearly shows that there is a very high correlation between the Career Approximate Value of a player and the position in which he was picked, and the very high r squared of 0.92 confirms it.
What this data means is that we can now predict, with a fairly high degree of certainty, how high the CarAV of a player will be, simply based on his position in the draft. There is one minor caveat here though. If you look closely, you’ll see that at the end of the first and second rounds (around picks 32 and 64), there seems to be a higher level of fluctuation than elsewhere. We will correct for this by doing a regression by rounds.
4. The Approximate Value of each pick in each round
Ok, bear with me here. I’ve broken down the seven rounds into four chunks, and ran a linear regression against them.
I needed to do this to get a better fix on the value of each pick. You’ll see that the angle of the regression line is different by round, most pronounced between the first and second round.
As described in a previous post (Moving up by trading down?), on average, the picks at the top of the second round generate more value than the picks at the end of the first.
Also, rounds one, two and three-through-five still have a fairly high r squared, but there is no correlation whatsoever between the pick number and the eventual AV in rounds six and beyond (160-244). For round 6 and beyond, the mathematically precise formula is: Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don’t.
5. What now?
I now know the average expected AV of each draft pick. I also have the actual AV of each draft round in each year. I can now compute the ‘Draft Success’ of each draft pick by comparing the actual AV against the expected AV for each round and year. Here’s an example:
Over 25 years, the average Career AV for the no. 25 pick in the draft is 27 AV points out of a total of 1,340 AV points for the first 32 picks in a draft, or 2.5%. Now let’s take the no. 25 pick in 2008, the Cowboys’ Mike Jenkins. The first 32 picks in 2008 have a combined Career AV of 387 so far. 2.5% of 387 are 9.6 AV points. Mike Jenkins has already accumulated 10 Career AV points. Dallas has therefore gotten 0.4 more points for this pick than could have been historically expected. The ‘Draft Success’ for Dallas is therefore 4% (0.4 divided by 9.6). The positive ‘Draft Success’ percentage means Dallas so far has gotten slightly more value than they could have historically expected from their 25th pick.
By looking at ‘Draft Success’ in the way described, I can tell how good each team was at maximizing the draft picks it had available. Draft Success does not evaluate how many picks a team had, simply how efficient they were in getting value for the picks they did have. Similarly, it doesn’t matter which slots a team had in a draft. By only comparing the same slot numbers, it doesn’t matter if you had the first or tenth pick.
Finally, I didn’t adjust what percentage of the player’s career value was accrued with the team that drafted him. The Cowboys get full credit for drafting Anthony Fasano (incredibly, the player with the best AV out of Dallas’ 06 draft class), although he’s playing for Miami now.
So without further ado, here are the ten Dallas Cowboys drafts from 1999 through 2008:
The figures here should not come as a big surprise for anybody familier with the Cowboys’ recent drafts.
The 2005 class with DeMarcus Ware, Marcus Spears, Marion Barber, Chris Canty and Jay Ratliff is a stand-out draft any way you measure it.
The 2004 class may seem a bit surprising given that the Cowboys did not have a first rounder that year, but relative to the picks they had, the Cowboys actually did a pretty good job of getting value for their money.
In terms of value for money or bang for buck, the Cowboys drafts have been a hit and miss affair. In the years in which they had a positive Draft Success figure the Cowboys ranked in the top third of the league in terms of Draft Success every time (99: 11th, 02: 12th, 03: 8th, 04: 8th, 05: 2nd, 08: 9th). Conversely, when the Cowboys had a negative number, they ranked at the very bottom of the NFL: (00: 30th, 01: 28th, 06: 29th, 07: 26th).
Do the Cowboys draft well? The Cowboys had a positive Draft Success number in six out of the ten years I looked at. That’s tied for sixth in the NFL with five other teams. Not bad at all. It’s when they miss that they miss badly.
Two teams had a positive Draft Success number in nine out of ten years. One team had a negative number in nine out ten years. Care to take a guess who these teams are?
All will be revealed in the next and final part of this NFL Draft by Numbers series in which we’ll look at how Draft Success correlates with winning across the whole NFL.
Blame it on Cain, and Bobby, and Mike, and Cory, and Pat and Flozell…
August 17, 2009
by Eric Gay - AP
All right or all wet? Tony Romo always straddles the goat fence. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
“Blame it on Cain,
Don’t blame it on me,
oh, oh, it’s nobody’s fault,
but we need somebody to burn.”– Elvis Costello, Blame it on Cain
Every July 7th, the residents of Pamplona, Spain hold the Running of the Bulls, where brave — and crazy? — residents and tourists don red bandannas and march the animals through the city streets to the bull ring, where the bulls are later killed.
Every year, roughly one month later, the Cowboys Nation engages in its annual “Running of the Goats,” where the old, the infirm, and the disappointing on the roster are rounded up and run down the streets of the blogs, forums and call-in shows. Take a quick look at the right hand column of this site, or in the game-day threads, and you’ll see what I mean.
There are always a group of Cowboys the fans love to hate. Think of the doomed players from just the last five years, guys who couldn’t take a proper step: Jacob Rogers, Drew Bledsoe, Julius Jones, Akin Ayodele.
Last year, I handicapped the field, which had several perennials, led by the safety Roy Williams.
The Cowboys figuratively took the sword to several of last year’s goats. Adam Jones, Tank Johnson, Keith Davis, Greg Ellis, Roy Willie? All reduced to cabrito. T.O.? While some fans pleaded for him to receive an indulto, the front office showed no mercy.
This year? Get serious. There will be no shortage of goats to roast. Bobby Carpenter, Isaiah Stanback, Pat Watkins, Marcus Spears. Band together, gents. The rippers are putting on their blue bandannas and are ready to run you out of town. Flozell Adams went from goat to stud and now is back on the goat list, at least with some of the more bloodthirsty. Were Doug Free not ahead of him on the goat list, the toreadors would be preparing for his old bones. Tony Romo? Your first pick and the swords will come out. Wade and Jason? Don’t think for a second you won’t hit the streets if the losses come too quickly.
I understand. It’s part of fandom. I’ve chased Roy Williams down those streets more than once myself. I’ve had Pat Watkins measured for a while now. I’m just as guilty as the next guy. All Cowboys fans are, to some degree. All football fans are.
Yet, I’m amazed by the speed with which some guys are tagged. What has Mike Jenkins done to deserve his roasting? He’s a second year player who looked very, very good to my eyes. He’s going to have a very good season, health permitting, yet some people are ready to doom him to permanent second class status behind Orlando Scandrick, sight unseen.
Some players get no patience, even if they’ve produced. Marion Barber was the people’s choice in ‘07. Take any week and you could find numerous posts insisting he should start and that Julius Jones needed to be run down immediately, never mind in the summer. Less than a year later, after a toe injury, some goat runners were already shoving number 24 into the street, ready to trade him for the first available receiver, or to demote him behind Tashard Choice, who no doubt will see his day on the streets the minute a fresher back hits town.
My point? Be deliberate in choosing your goats. Don’t mistake an injury for incompetence. Football hurts, and even the best ones get pummeled. Be sure a guy isn’t playing hurt, instead of losing his edge, before you run him into the ring. Have patience with the kids. Not all of them develop at the same rate. Don’t assume that what you saw from a rookie determines how he’ll play this year, or next year.
Some guys deserve their horns. Some have disappointed and will continue to disappoint. Some of these guys may be a week or just a month from breaking out. Let’s try and do a better job of distinguishing between them.
It’s August 17th. Put those blue scarves back in your pocket, at least until next week.
“Blame it on Cain,
Please don’t blame it on me.
It’s nobody’s fault,
but it just seems to be his turn.”
Trading Black Hats for White Ones — Or Not?
July 24, 2008
Duane Thomas once commented that the Dallas Cowboys have never won anything without controversy. Thomas of course generated his fair share of it, but he has a point. Let’s look at some of the Cowboys’ championship seasons and consider the distractions that accompanied each one:
1971 — 1970 Rookie of the Year Thomas is traded during the preseason, has his trade to New England reversed after a bustup with Pats’ coach John Mazur, returns and then plays the season without speaking to his teammates. Meanwhile, Tom Landry employs a quarterback rotation system, which craters in week seven when he alternates Roger Staubach and Craig Morton on each offensive play in an embarrassing loss to a bad Chicago Bears team.
The offense settles down after Staubach is named the starter and the Cowboys run the table.
1993 — The Cowboys have little time to celebrate their third title before Emmitt Smith and Jerry Jones stage a contract showdown. Smith holds out and Dallas stumbes into the season with two losses. The team settles down and swaggers through the playoffs, though it has to overcome several key injuries, namely Mark Stepnoski’s ACL tear, Smith’s separated shoulder and Troy Aikman’s concussion, which wipes out his memory of the Super Bowl.
Simmering beneath the surface is the rift between Jones and Jimmy Johnson, which erupts almost immediately after they accept their second Lombardi trophy. Jimmy clumsily dodges a question in the locker room about his readiness to pursue a third consecutive title and days later mocks Jones on The Tonight Show. The J.J.s part shortly thereafter.
1995 — Dallas pursues it’s third title of the Jones era with the widely-despised Barry Switzer at the helm. Jones picks a fight with the league over sponsorship deals and is served with a lawsuit during a league meeting. The Cowboys are ripped for “buying a title” after they outbid San Francisco for Deion Sanders’ services. The cries for Switzer’s dismissal peak after his two 4th-and-1 gambles fail in Philadelphia. When Dallas beats the Steelers in the Super Bowl the sighs of relief are as loud as the cheers.
It seems the Cowboys require discord to fuel their title runs. Perhaps that’s why the Terry Glenn tiff feels like home; I’d be far more worried if everything were hunky dory.
I think many Cowboys fans feel the same way. One character trait I’ve noticed in the three plus years of running this site is that the Cowboys nation cannot exist without creating villains on their own team.
Look at the Parcells years. Drew Bledsoe was always the instant scapegoat, even when losses were not directly his fault. More recently, Julius Jones served as a whipping boy for the fans.
Even today, with the Cowboys coming off a 13-3 season, there are several black hats riding in the posse. I give you the Cowboys you love to hate, ‘08 edition:
- Roy Williams
- Terry Glenn
- Marcus Spears
- Bobby Carpenter
and give you these potential baddies:
- Wade Phillips
- Tony Romo
- Anthony Henry
- Adam Jones
- Tank Johnson
a former black hat gone straight:
- Flozell Adams
and these wild cards:
- Greg Ellis
- Terrell Owens
Too much controversy? Too many loose cannons? From my perspective, the blend looks great. The Cowboys thrive on crazy and Jerry has done his best the past two years to raise the instability quotient. Outsiders may deride his gambles on T.O. and the former Pacman Jones but team history suggests he’s right where he needs to be.
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