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30 Minute Men

The Cowboys defense played with fury in the first half, keeping the Cards offense scoreless for 30 minutes while the offensive line struggled.

Then, they were given a lead when the Cowboys scored on a 6:49 touchdown drive to open the second half.  The Cowboys had their first lead.  They had momentum.  So what does the defense allow?

• 11 play, 60 yard TD drive;
• 8 play, 89 yard TD drive;
• 9 play, 43 yard FG drive;

Arizona was 5-6 on 3rd downs.

The offensive line was a mess.  The tackles were being whipped.  The running game was suspect.  Yet, they had stabilized to give Dallas a lead.  They made big plays at the end of each half to score.

But the defense broke, badly, making just one stop, when Arizona was simply trying to run out the clock.

Then, the special teams stepped up, or down as it were.

• They gave up a 93 yard kickoff return to open the game.
• Then, they allowed a punt block after Dallas’ initial series in overtime, which was recovered for a touchdown.

I’m not an advocate of changing coaches during a season, like, ever.

But the special teams gave up 13 today, and that’s the difference.

As Willie Mays famously said, when he took his first cuts in Candlestick Park and saw the wind for left field knock down home run after home run into long outs:

“Changes have got to be made.”

Cowboys @ Cardinals 2nd Half Thread

It’s dial a culprit.

• The coverage team tackling sucks out loud.
• Flozell Adams has been whipped twice in pass protection.
• Andre Gurode has been whipped in pass protection.
• Marc Colombo has committed a holding penalty.
• Jason Witten has been flagged twice and dropped a pass.
• Tony Romo has put the ball on the ground again.

This isn’t one of those games where you can replace the offending part because every play it’s somebody new.

And yet, Jason Garrett started getting ancillary receivers open down the field late in the half.

But the forces of wierdness are everywhere.  Nick Folk’s clanker off the left upright makes that plain.

Okay, take a deep breath.  Dallas gets the second half kickoff.

Damn the Torpedoes and Bring the Gatorade! Cowboys @ Cards Preview

An important playoff game is about to be held in the desert, as the Cowboys will face an improved and inspired Cardinals team that just ran the previously unbeaten Buffalo Bills out of town and knocked their quarterback out in the process.

This could be a statement game for the Cards; a win would put them in control of the NFC West.

For the Cowboys, coming off a win that had them feeling as if they had lost and the media roasting from the Pacman Jones non-arrest (how is it that a police statement that doesn’t name you gets in the papers with your name attached to it? Remind me never to visit Dallas again) a game has to feel good.

When Dallas Has the Ball

It’s old Cowboys week. The Cardinals have four former Cowboys assistants on their staff and one of them, Clancy Pendergast, coordinates their defense. Pendergast was a secondary assistant for the Cowboys when Dave Campo ran the show and he has a reputation of being a mad scientist as the Cards DC. That’s because he’s had to work underhanded for most of his tenure.

He has a base of talent and his defense has jumped to mid-pack this year. The Cards are respectable in all areas of defense, though their points allowed has jumped, in part because their offense coughed up seven turnovers in a 56-35 loss to the Jets two weeks ago.

Pendergast has good rushers on every level of his defense and likes to blitz a lot.  On his line, ends Travis LeBoy and Bert Berry bring the heat.  Berry has been injured recently, so watch the injury reports on him.  Pendergast also likes using OLK Karlos Dansby as an inside or edge rusher.

The linchpin of his scheme is SS Adrian Wilson.  He’s the player Roy Williams wants to be, a 220 lb. in-the-box enforcer who frequently blitzes off the edges, in a Leroy Butler-style.  Wilson knocked out Trent Edwards on Buffalo’s first offensive series last week, setting the tone for the Cards big win.

Arizona blitzed him a ton two years ago when Tony Romo was making one of his first starts.  Romo made a couple of big escapes and throws to Patrick Crayton in a Cowboys’ blowout win.  Expect Arizona to blitz Wilson and Dansby just as much on Sunday, if not more.

Dallas’ level of success will depend on how well they can pick up the Cardinals blitz and  on how well Jason Garrett and Romo anticipate the pressure and react to it.  As I said, the Cardinals play a lot of man-to-man behind their blitzes, so the opportunity for big plays will be there, either with max protection schemes that will set up deep throws to Terrell Owens and Miles Austin and intermediate diagonals and crossing routes by T.O. and Crayton, or, through screens to the backs.  Garrett called screens at the right times against the Eagles and Marion Barber had some big catches and runs.

When Arizona Has the Ball

It’s Parcells West on this side of the ball:  Todd Haley is the Cards’ OC, Maurice Carthon coaches the running backs and Freddie Kitchens handles the tight ends.

Arizona has tried to run the ball a lot more, with Ken Whisenhunt and OL coach Russ Grimm laboring to instill the Steelers’ grind-it-out ethic.  They’ve had modest success, as Edgerrin James has lost a step.  He’s platooning a lot more with Tim Hightower.

The Cards will try to establish the run and run a balanced attack with a lot of two TE or two back sets, as the Parcells Cowboys used to.  Arizona’s TEs are banged up, so you might see a lot more three WR sets by default.

That choice will depend on whether Anquan Boldin is healthy.  He’s a big physical WR and has given Anthony Henry a very hard time the past few years.  If he’s healthy he and Larry Fitzgerald will play along with third WR Steve Breaston, whose career has taken off this year.

The Cardinals will try to isolate super star WR Larry Fitzgerald in the middle of the field when they go three wide.  He’s a true blue-chipper and he’s destroyed safeties this year.  Fortunately for Dallas, Ken Hamlin has retained his Pro Bowl-level play and has held the secondary together while the staff has tried to mix and match cornerbacks.

The key, as it has been the past few weeks, will be Dallas’ pressure.  The young right side of Arizona’s O-line, RG Deuce Latui and RT Levi Brown, are mashers who can and will give up sacks.  Look for Dallas to scheme their blitzes and overloads off this side.

If they want to win, the Cowboys have to knock Kurt Warner around.  He’s sporting a 102 QB rating and is deadly to opponents when he gets time and is deadly to his own team when he’s pressured.  He was brought up in the Mike Martz scheme and he’ll stubbornly hold onto the ball, Drew Bledsoe-style, looking for a receiver to break open deep and late.

Overall

This is the battle of the high-wire QBs.  Both Warner and Romo make huge plays for their own team and huge plays for the other side.  The guy who makes the fewest will walk out the winner.

I’m going to lean in Arizona’s direction.  Warner has been clean with his ball custody in Arizona’s three wins and a mess in the Cards’ two losses.  Romo has been coughing up turnovers in every Dallas game.  It’s almost guaranteed that he’ll put the ball on the ground again.  You can’t say the same thing about Warner.

Arizona, with some help from Romo - 31, Dallas with some help from Romo - 27

Cowboys About to Enter the Wild, Wild West

Ken Whisenhunt’s Cardinals are one of those teams on the come.  They have a quality you see in teams that are on their way but not there yet:

Their home/road splits are extreme.  Consider:

– Under Whisenhunt they have an overall record of 11-10.

• They are 8-2 at home;
• They are 3-8 on the road;

They’ve beaten good teams at their place. They knocked off the Seahawks, Browns and Steelers in the desert last year.  They tattooed Buffalo there last week.

Right now, they’re riding their high-test offense, which is averaging 29.4 points a game. Only the Redskins have held them under 23 this year.

If the Cowboys were playing at home, I’d chalk this up as a high-scoring W.  But the game is in Arizona, so I’m dubious.

One other stat that adds to the uncertainty:  the Cards have committed zero turnovers in their three wins.  They’ve turned the ball over nine times in their two losses.  The Jets put heavy pressure on Kurt Warner two weeks ago and he threw two picks and lost five fumbles.

• Have the Cowboys been able to force turnovers so far this year?
• Have they been able to consistently generate pressure?

The answer to question two is yes, but the Dallas rush was sluggish against the Bengals.

Get your popcorn ready.  And your Tums.

Fun With SF ‘08, Or Why Anquan Boldin Isn’t Worth A Huge Deal

A few months ago, when the Arizona Cardinals were in a contract impasse with WR Larry Fitzgerald, I got a call from a source who wanted to discuss trade packages Dallas might assemble for him. This source has worked in the business a long time and has a very good idea of player value.

We discussed a 1st round pick and a quality player off the Dallas roster as a starting point. When I mentioned that this might remind lots of Cowboys fans about the Joey Galloway deal and invite a backlash, the source was quick and firm with his retort: “Larry Fitzgerald isn’t Joey Galloway.”

The question recurs now that the Cowboys have seen their back WR roster thinned by injury, with Miles Austin and Isaiah Stanback on the mend and with Fitzgerald’s WR partner Anquan Boldin screaming for a new deal. The Dallas papers invite trade proposals on a regular basis, with one scribe suggesting Dallas offer a 1st rounder, Marcus Spears, and Miles Austin for Boldin and a 3rd.

Fair? Not according to the metrics in the brand spanking new copy of Scientific Football 2008. K.C. Joyner’s latest is easily his best, with more nuance than any of his previous books. (I highly recomment buying it at your bookstore on or his website, where you can get an instantaneous electronic download.)

One area of greater detail is wide receiver YPA stats. In the past, Joyner has compiled simple YPA numbers, looking at attempts and yards against opposing defenses. This year, he not only looks at a receiver’s production, but the quality of the corners he’s beating. Joyner takes his cornerback YPAs and breaks NFL CBs into three categories: Red corners have YPAs under 7; numbers like this put them in the top third of the league in any given year. Yellow corners are those with YPAs between 7-9. They are what you might call “league average” corners. Green corners are those with YPAs above 9. They’re the bottom third, the guys you need to fill out rosters and nickel or dime packages, but would replace if you could.

Joyner notes that Boldin and Fitzgerald have almost identical raw YPAs. In ‘07, they were identical, with both receivers posting very respectable 9.2s, which tied them for 17th, just behind Randy Moss and just ahead of Detroit’s Roy Williams.

Not all YPAs are created equal, however, as Joyner’s ratings-per-color-level show:

Player	vs. Red CBs	vs. Yellow CBs	vs. Green CBs
Larry Fitzgerald	9.1	8.5	13.6
Anquan Boldin	4.9	7.1	15.6

These metrics tells a very different story. Fitzgerald, as we can see, beats everybody, red, yellow and green. His 9.1 versus red corners ranked 5th in that category, right behind some guy named Terrell Owens. Boldin’s 4.9? Not so good; that number tied him for 47th.

While their production numbers are almost identical, let’s not kid ourselves. Fitzgerald is the number one in Arizona’s attack. Boldin is number two. Teams assign their best corners to Fitzgerald — and he beats them anyway. Boldin is very effective at beating 2nd and 3rd tier corners, exactly as a number two should, but when Arizona has faced teams with two top quality corners, or when teams have assigned their top guy to Boldin, he’s struggled.

What can we take from this?

1. For all the abuse he’s taken in the press, Arizona GM Rod Graves absolutely made the right decision. He paid Fitzgerald number one money and is paying Boldin top dollar for a number two, as he should.
2. My guy was on the money this Spring. Larry Fitzgerald isn’t Joey Galloway. He’s much better. (Galloway, if you’re wondering, finished 3rd overall in ‘07 raw YPAs, with a 10.9, but was a lousy 53rd versus red corners, with a 4.6 average. This tells me Tampa Bay faced some poor secondaries in ‘07.)
3. These numbers should temper the outrageous packages we hear from the gallery for Boldin and Detroit’s Roy Williams. The Cowboys have a legitimate number one in Owens. The thinking pre-draft was to obtain a young receiver who could complement him and eventually replace him. Both Boldin and Williams can certainly complement T.O. but neither shows the top end performance to take his place. Williams’ YPA versus red corners was a poor 4.3, which ranked 58th overall. It’s not that much better than Patrick Crayton’s number.
4. That doesn’t mean that Boldin and Williams don’t have value. But Jerry Jones’ unwillingness to pay a number one price for a number two shows that he has good data at his disposal. If Dallas felt a real need to pursue Boldin, I’d offer Arizona a number one, but no more. Given the fact that Boldin is unhappy with getting $4 million a year, which seems like a fair salary to me given his game, I doubt that he would pout any less if the Cowboys got him and refused to re-work his deal. For that reason, I don’t think he’s worth the potential headache.

If Dallas wants to make the proverbial big splash and get a complement who can be a number one if T.O. gets injured, they’re better off asking about Steve Smith, who beats red corners for an 8.4 YPA.

Me? I’ll wait for Miles Austin to complete his rehab. If he can beat yellow and green corners, and not cost the Cowboys high picks and big money, he’s the best value.

Stop Living in the Past

I see the Kneejerk Chorus on other sites calling for Larry Allen to be re-signed to fill in for the injured Kyle Kosier. I’ll bet some of them even feel Allen could replace Kosier.

This isn’t 1998 folks. It’s 2008. Allen was an all-timer in his time, but that time has passed. Joyner’s pass protection metrics show that Kosier surrendered 2.5 sacks in 2007. That puts him in a tie for 29th, or mid-pack at his position. Allen gave up 4.5, tying him for 53rd. And Justin Blalock, the darling of so many draftniks here? He ranked dead last among guards, giving up 9.5 sacks.

Given that he’s been in retirement the past few months, I doubt a rusty Larry Allen could step in and be any better than the backup options Dallas has available.

Adam Jones, CB Rankings and Ken Hamlin’s Best Position: K.C. Joyner Returns, Part I

The football scientist K.C. Joyner gave BSR an interview Friday, taking time from finishing Scientific Football 2008 to discuss Adam Jones, the Cowboys incumbent corners, whether Ken Hamlin should be moved to strong safety and other topics. Today, we focus on the defense.

BSR: Adam Jones has finally landed in the Cowboys’ secondary. There’s a lot of discussion on the site about his ability to recover from a year off. I don’t think it’s an issue. He was suspended for being a knucklead. He didn’t miss time for a major injury or behavior that damaged his body, like drug or alcohol abuse. Paul Hornung and Alex Karras missed a full year in ‘63 for gambling. Both played well after they returned and they were both 28 the year they sat. Jones was 24. I think his performance curve can actually improve.

Joyner: I agree. Physiologists and baseball analysts like Bill James say that your physical peak comes around age 27 or 28. Don’t forget that John Riggins also sat out a year and helped win a Super Bowl after he returned.

BSR: I saw a comment from an AFC pro personnel guy who said Jones has talent but was inconsistent while at Tennessee. How much can we expect him to add to the secondary this year?

Joyner: Remember, he’s replacing Jacques Reeves. Reeves had a 7.9 yards per attempt in ‘07. Now, a 7.0 YPA is about league average. Adam Jones had a 5.4 YPA in 2006 (which ranked 8th overall). Jones doesn’t have to equal that to be an improvement. Even if he’s a notch below his ‘06 play he’ll raise the secondary’s play.

As for being inconsistent, you don’t post a 5.4 YPA giving up a lot of big plays. He may have given up a decent throw here and there, but you can’t give up many and post a number like that.

BSR: How did the Cowboys’ regular corners rate?

Joyner: Anthony Henry had a 6.6 YPA. That’s in the top third. Terence Newman had a 6.2 YPA. That’s in the top 20. The Cowboys had a top ten secondary with Reeves starting 13 games. They should be as good or better with Jones.

[Note: Joyner didn't have his rankings handy, but he's on the mark. A 6.2 YPA ranked 15th in both the '05 and '06 CB ratings. A 6.6 YPA ranked 21st and 20th in those years. ]

BSR: There’s been a lot of speculation that the Cowboys will move to Anthony Henry to free safety and Ken Hamlin to strong safety, putting Roy Williams on the bench. Henry hinted at this when Jones got some reps at starting right corner in last week’s mini-camp. But Hamlin was very good at free safety last year. Would Dallas be messing with success to move him?

Joyner: Before Ken Hamlin the Cowboys were awful at free safety. [Note: Keith Davis and Pat Watkins had the worst pass coverage numbers for starting FSs in '05 and '06.]

I think Dallas might be creating one problem by trying to solve another one. I don’t have his stats but Hamlin was very, very good last year. If the Cowboys want to replace Roy Williams at strong safety, they should get another strong safety. Look, I don’t have any problems saying this on the record. I think Roy Williams is just one of those guys, like Randy Moss, who’s going to play his game, the game that he wants to play, no matter what.

BSR: Let’s look at the Dallas secondary in comparison to another top divisional unit. I’ve written a couple of pieces on the NFC and I have the Eagles as my bubble team; I’m putting them outside the playoffs but can see them in if they keep Lito Sheppard. How good can Philly’s secondary be if they keep him?

Joyner: Lito dropped off. He takes chances and has high YPAs but the Eagles put up with it because he made plays and got picks. He’s stopped doing that.

BSR: What did Asante Samuel post last year?

Joyner: He was 7.2. Good, but not great.

I think the Eagles suffered letting nickel back Rod Hood go. He posted a 6.6 YPA for Arizona, which is very respectable. They replaced him with William James, who had a YPA over 11.0 last year, which is one of the worst marks in the league.

– Come back Monday for Part II, where K.C. will discuss Tony Romo’s ‘07, the difficult matchups he faces in ‘08, Patrick Crayton’s value as a number two and whether rumored WR target Joe Horn has anything left.

NFC Crystal Ball

The preseason magazines have started to appear. We used to rate them here, but gave up because they have this nasty habit of taking last year’s playoff field, adding maybe one “surprise team,” though they often have none.

As we’ve pointed out time and again here, there are on average four teams that go from losing records to the playoffs each year. Most of them have been in the NFC this decade.

Let’s ignore the magazines this time around and make our own picks.

I’ve nominated the Vikings as my new standout team. But let’s take it farther.

1. Pick the six playoff teams.

2. Who will be new to the playoff dance?

3. Any bounce-back teams?

4. Who are ’08’s big droppers?

I’ll take first crack.

1. The playoff six:

1. Cowboys
2. Vikings
3. Saints
4. Cardinals
5. Giants
6. Panthers

2. I have four new playoff teams — the Vikings, Cards, Saints and Panthers. There has been roughly 50% turnover from year to year league wide and I’m seeing more churn in the NFC, which has been the more volatile conference.

My final slot came down to the Eagles and Panthers. I’m giving Carolina the nod today, though I’d like to see Jake Delhomme’s health before I lock this one in.

3. My two NFC loser-to-playoff teams are the Saints and Panthers, with the Vikings and Cardinals moving from 8-8 to the post-season. I also see San Francisco yo-yoing back into contention but just missing the playoffs.

4. Big droppers?

a. The Redskins are trying too much change. They’ve lost their head coach and their DC, which means they’re putting in new offensive and defensive systems. They’re also relying a lot on their first-day receiver and tight end draftees;

b. The Packers should be good but what do we really know about Aaron Rogers. Their division will get tougher, with the Vikings and Bears improving. I don’t see them falling to 6-10 but 9-7 could happen;

c. The Seahawks have lived off their division’s weakness; they’re the only Western team to finish above .500 since 2003. They won 9 games in ‘06 and 10 in ‘07. I see them dropping out of the divisional penthouse with the Cards and 49ers improving. I’ve been burned before picking the Cards but they’ve been building their talent base and can win that division at 10-6 or 9-7.

d. The Bucs jumped back into the race last year by riding their defense. That offense doesn’t scare me. They’ve have 83 quarterbacks, which means they don’t have one. How much longer can Joey Galloway carry that offense?

Your turn.

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