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T.O. Scares Everybody

In the early days of training camp, I mentioned that the workouts could be summarized with the phrase, “T.O. Beats Everybody.”  No player had a better, more productive camp than the man whose middle name is Eldorado.

The Caddy made Philadelphia’s ballyhooed corners look like refurbished Hyundais in the first half Monday night.  He not only beat Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard, he humiliated them.  Owens didn’t catch a pass in the second half, but his early level of dominance changed Philly’s second half game plan, and aided Dallas’ comeback.

Jim Johnson’s initial strategy was to blitz Tony Romo with some frequency.  On Romo’s 14 first half attempts, the Eagles blitzed five or more men on 6 plays, or 43% of the time.  The Eagles rushed four men on the remaining 8 plays.

The Eagles initially tried playing Owens with a single corner, but neither Brown nor Sheppard could stay wtih him.  He ran Brown off on a 14 yard curl route, then left both Sheppard and safety Sean Considine more than five yards in his wake on a 72 yard bomb.

Johnson showed some brass putting FS Brian Dawkins one-on-one against Owens in the second quarter. T.O. looked insulted after he easily beat Dawkins on a 4 yard slant for a touchdown.

The play that probably changed Johnson’s thinking came on Dallas’ next series.  The Cowboys had run the ball on every one of its first seven 1st-down plays and the Eagles had stuffed Marion Barber, walking eight and sometimes nine men into the box.   Romo’s 4 yarder to T.O. had caught them off guard, and probably explains why Dawkins was left alone against Owens — the Eagles were expecting another run.

Now, facing 1st and ten on his 20, Jason Garrett called his second 1st-down pass, sending Owens on a stop and go at Brown.  T.O. was again more than five yards behind the corner when he caught the ball, which he took 55 yards to the Eagles’ 25.  The play was called back by a holding penalty, but it affected the remainder of the game.

Johnson had to give the corners covering Owens deep help.  When the second half started the Eagles began playing a lot of cover two, with a safety always rotating to Owens’ side.  This meant the Eagles now were playing with seven in the box, and Marion Barber began to find running room.  He had only 14 first half yards on six carries, and he topped that on his first 2nd-half carry, a bend play around right end for 18 yards.  He gained 49 second half yards on 12 carries, a far more respectable 4.1 average.

Cover two also compromised Philly’s rush.  Thirteen of the Eagles first fourteen second-half pass calls rushed four men, a meager 7% average. The Cowboys’ line handled these rushes with relative ease, giving Romo time to work his backs and tight ends in the middle of the field against Philly linebackers.  When the Eagles went to man coverage, they still tracked T.O. with two players.  Owens cleared out the right side of the Eagles defense on a third quarter play from the Philly 17, giving Barber the space to catch a touchdown against the overmatched MLB Stewart Bradley.

That’s Why They Pay Him the Big Money

Amazingly, Garrett had the perfect play for the one time in that 14-pass sequence where Johnson blitzed.  He called a screen to Barber on a 1st down play where Johnson rushed six men.  Barber followed three blockers along the far sideline for 25 yards.  Johnson again backed off; he would blitz just twice more in the game.

In a fitting end to his evening, Owens beat the new Eagle Asante Samuel, drawing an interference call in the end zone that set up Barber’s game winning run.  T.O. left the field knowing he had gotten the better of all three Philly corners.

Owens appears to have found a 6th gear at age 34, one that makes good cornerbacks look stupid.  He not only beats everybody, he flat-out scares everybody, top-tier coordinators included.

Note: Updated offensive stats will be posted later today.

Tom Brady’s Injury: Like Deja Vu All Over Again?

I’ve been sitting on a story for a few months now, and history has forced it into the open. This spring, I put the career stats of Troy Aikman and Tom Brady side-by-side and saw an eerie resemblance. Both played hyper-efficient football, throwing very few interceptions. Aikman’s QB ratings were in the high 80s and low 90s. Until last year’s stunning 117 rating, so were Brady’s.

Both took over their teams at very young ages. Both won three Super Bowls before turning 30. Both won three titles in four years, Aikman when he was 26, 27 and 29, and Brady when he was 24, 26 and 27.

Both then saw their teams dip in performance when each lost a trusted receiver. Aikman, of course, lost Michael Irvin to a suspension and later to a career-ending neck injury. Brady lost Deion Branch when that receiver’s holdout compelled the Patriots to trade him.

Both QBs saw their teams spend big on replacement receivers. The Cowboys signed Rocket Ismail in ‘99 and then flipped two first-round picks to Seattle in 2000 for Joey Galloway. The Patriots sent a 2nd and a 6th to Miami last year for Wes Welker and fleeced the Raiders for Randy Moss, getting the veteran for a 4th round pick.

And that’s where the similarities appeared to end. Dallas’ WR gambits failed. Ismail was good, but not great and Galloway blew out a knee in his Cowboys debut. Welker and Moss had outstanding first seasons with New England and helped them go 16-0.

Aikman’s last great year came in ‘96, at age 30, when he took a one-WR and sometimes no-receiver team to the NFC Divisional round. Then, his team got old and, suddenly, he got old. The truth was clear on an October day at the Meadowlands in 2000 when Troy threw five picks, underthrowing open receiver after open receiver because his bad back had robbed his arm of its deep power. He was finished at age 34.

The 2008 Patriots looked a lot to me like the 1998 and ‘99 Cowboys as a team. The linebacking core was ancient last year and the team is trying to restock it on the fly. The secondary was so-so to begin with and lost Asante Samuel to free agency.

Yet Brady looked better than ever. He had been listed on the league’s injury report for 50 consecutive weeks with a shoulder problem but that was considered gamesmanship, especially given his performance over that time. His ‘07 rating was 25 points better than his second-best campaign. He still had Moss and Welker. Publishing the comparison would look gruesome, making it appear that I was wishing for Brady’s breakdown.

Then, Brady played the Chiefs yesterday and met his own Carson Palmer moment. Where Aikman’s body broke over time, because of too many concussions and too many sacks, Brady’s first after-30 season ended with a sudden, submarine-style blow to the knee. He’ll be 32 when he takes the field again.

Let’s hope Brady’s rehab is successful. Troy’s career ended too quickly and cruelly. To see Tom Brady continue down Troy’s path would be a shame. He and the NFL deserve a better fate.

Who Is the Best Cover Corner?

This is the first in a series of pieces on the top cover cornerbacks and secondaries.

Who is the best NFL cover corner? Who has the best coverage unit around? The question is being kicked around a lot these days, with cornerbacks getting free agent contracts that rival those of quarterbacks for sheer dollars and bonuses.

I’ve come across several lists in recent weeks, all going off reputations, some earned, some not. BSR has decided to pursue these questions with the use of the largest database of corner coverage stats around. K.C. Joyner, the author of the Scientific Football books, will soon release Scientific Football 2008, the fourth edition of his series.

Joyner’s forte is breaking down the passing game, from offensive and defensive perspectives. His CB YPA will shortly become, in my opinion, shorthand for measuring a corner’s skills, in the same way that OPS has become the one stat that can best convey a baseball hitter’s skills. It’s easy to calculate and easy to understand. It shows how many yards a corner surrendered on average every time a pass was thrown to his man.

K.C. prints out a YPA ranking every year and in this year’s book has ranked the teams by tandem, calculating the average YPAs for the starting CB duos on each team.

What he has not yet done is compile YPAs over a longer span, say the last three or four years. When he learned I was putting such a spreadsheet together, he kindly forwarded his 2007 YPA rankings, which will not be published for several more weeks, and gave me permission to publish pieces from my calculated averages. BSR readers will therefore be the first to see these numbers. If you are not a regular Joyner reader, I highly recommend his ESPN columns and his books which can be ordered here.

The spread sheet raised as many questions as it answered. Although I have four years of data at my disposal, is it fair to omit a cornerback who has only played two or three years, but at a high level? What about a player who has missed a year due to injury?

In addition, what about players who have solid numbers but show a steady decline. Should I rate them above or below a player who has a similar number but whose averages are improving?

For now, I’ve decided to offer these breakdowns as a starting point for discussion, not as the last word in the debate over which players are best and which units are best. I’m going to offer two individual lists, one showing the best cornerbacks for the last four years and one for the last three years. The reason I’m pushing the data to be comprehensive is the generally inconsistent level of CB play from one year to the next.

It’s fairly routine to see a corner, even a good one, have two stellar years, then drop off a year and then bounce back strong again. For examples, look at the lines for Deshea Townsend and Ronde Barber on the top ten list below.

I’m sure there are many factors for a dropoff. A corner might be playing hurt. He may lose his confidence for a stretch of the season or an entire campaign. His pass rush might be weaker one given year. Whatever the case, there are not many corners in my sample who strung four strong years together. Even the better ones had a so-so year somewhere in the mix.

That said, I believe that a player must display consistency in order to be considered tops at his position. So my first list will, with one exception, include only those players who have posted numbers for the last four years.

Player-team	2004	2005	2006	2007	YPA Avg.
1. Springs - Washington	4.2	5.5	6.2	6.2	5.5
2. Newman - Dallas	5.8	5.8	7.1	6.1	6.2
4T. Townsend - Pittsburgh	7.1	5.1	7.8	5.2	6.3
4T. Barber - Tampa Bay	5.7	6.7	7.9	4.9	6.3
6T. Woodson - Green Bay	7.0	*	5.3	7.2	6.5
6T. Lucas - Carolina	7.9	5.8	5.2	7.2	6.5
7. O’Neal - Cincinnati	5.8	6.6	6.8	7.0	6.6
8. Smoot - Washington	7.6	7.2	6.9	5.5	6.8
10T. Jammer - San Diego	7.8	7.5	6.2	5.9	6.9
10T. Asomugha - Oakland	7.5	6.3	6.9	7.0	6.9

(*Charles Woodson did not get a rating in ‘05 because he was playing a rover position in Oakland’s system and did not qualify for the CB ratings.)

Some observations:

– The cornerback positon is incredibly unstable. You don’t think of corner as an attrition position, like running back, but there are only 40 players who had qualifying numbers each of the last four years. That’s just 1.25 per team. This is why cornerbacks who hit the open market make so much money. The demand for solid corners does not come close to meeting demand.

– Raise your hand if you considered Shawn Springs one of the top five corners in the game. I considered him for my top-of-my-head top ten, but he’s been the best YPA guy in the league the past four years.

– Raise both hands if you had Deshea Townsend in your top 20.

– There’s Terence Newman, Cowboys’ fans, parked at #2. His highest ranking in any given year has been 8th, but as you can see he’s been Mr. Steady. His 6.1 last year is even more impressive given his heel injury.

– In the what might have been category, check out Ken Lucas at 6th. The year he hit free agency he was rated higher by the Dallas scouting staff than Anthony Henry. Bill Parcells took the recommendation of Todd Bowles, who had coached Henry in Cleveland and who is now with the Tuna in Miami. Had Parcells pursued Lucas instead — Lucas did cost more — he might still be coaching.

– Notice the big names not on this list: Champ Bailey, Chris McAlister, Nate Clements, Asante Samuel? Inconsistency put them down the list. Bailey had one of the best years Joyner has ever recorded in ‘06, but it’s his only exceptional year the last four. He ranked in the bottom half in ‘04 and ‘05.

– Lastly, YPA tells us a lot, but don’t rush to judgments on guys who are on the list or are not. One fact that nags at me is that gambling, CBs, who Joyner calls “ball-hawks,” often have higher YPAs. Antonio Cromartie, for example, only had a 7.2 YPA last year, which is about league average. Guys like this will give up more intermediate and big throws in exchange for more picks. Conversely, CBs in cover two systems tend to have lower YPAs than they do when they play in more aggresive systems. Should we take the YPAs straight or weight them somewhat depending on a player’s personal style and scheme?

I’ll repeat, take this chart as a point of departure. Discuss.

Next: The top 10 CBs by YPA for the last three years.

Programming Note: I, like our Vice President, will be spending the next few days in an “undisclosed location.” I don’t know if his getaways involve a comely blonde, but mine will. I’ll see you folks again oh, Thursday.

Maybe.

Adam Jones, CB Rankings and Ken Hamlin’s Best Position: K.C. Joyner Returns, Part I

The football scientist K.C. Joyner gave BSR an interview Friday, taking time from finishing Scientific Football 2008 to discuss Adam Jones, the Cowboys incumbent corners, whether Ken Hamlin should be moved to strong safety and other topics. Today, we focus on the defense.

BSR: Adam Jones has finally landed in the Cowboys’ secondary. There’s a lot of discussion on the site about his ability to recover from a year off. I don’t think it’s an issue. He was suspended for being a knucklead. He didn’t miss time for a major injury or behavior that damaged his body, like drug or alcohol abuse. Paul Hornung and Alex Karras missed a full year in ‘63 for gambling. Both played well after they returned and they were both 28 the year they sat. Jones was 24. I think his performance curve can actually improve.

Joyner: I agree. Physiologists and baseball analysts like Bill James say that your physical peak comes around age 27 or 28. Don’t forget that John Riggins also sat out a year and helped win a Super Bowl after he returned.

BSR: I saw a comment from an AFC pro personnel guy who said Jones has talent but was inconsistent while at Tennessee. How much can we expect him to add to the secondary this year?

Joyner: Remember, he’s replacing Jacques Reeves. Reeves had a 7.9 yards per attempt in ‘07. Now, a 7.0 YPA is about league average. Adam Jones had a 5.4 YPA in 2006 (which ranked 8th overall). Jones doesn’t have to equal that to be an improvement. Even if he’s a notch below his ‘06 play he’ll raise the secondary’s play.

As for being inconsistent, you don’t post a 5.4 YPA giving up a lot of big plays. He may have given up a decent throw here and there, but you can’t give up many and post a number like that.

BSR: How did the Cowboys’ regular corners rate?

Joyner: Anthony Henry had a 6.6 YPA. That’s in the top third. Terence Newman had a 6.2 YPA. That’s in the top 20. The Cowboys had a top ten secondary with Reeves starting 13 games. They should be as good or better with Jones.

[Note: Joyner didn't have his rankings handy, but he's on the mark. A 6.2 YPA ranked 15th in both the '05 and '06 CB ratings. A 6.6 YPA ranked 21st and 20th in those years. ]

BSR: There’s been a lot of speculation that the Cowboys will move to Anthony Henry to free safety and Ken Hamlin to strong safety, putting Roy Williams on the bench. Henry hinted at this when Jones got some reps at starting right corner in last week’s mini-camp. But Hamlin was very good at free safety last year. Would Dallas be messing with success to move him?

Joyner: Before Ken Hamlin the Cowboys were awful at free safety. [Note: Keith Davis and Pat Watkins had the worst pass coverage numbers for starting FSs in '05 and '06.]

I think Dallas might be creating one problem by trying to solve another one. I don’t have his stats but Hamlin was very, very good last year. If the Cowboys want to replace Roy Williams at strong safety, they should get another strong safety. Look, I don’t have any problems saying this on the record. I think Roy Williams is just one of those guys, like Randy Moss, who’s going to play his game, the game that he wants to play, no matter what.

BSR: Let’s look at the Dallas secondary in comparison to another top divisional unit. I’ve written a couple of pieces on the NFC and I have the Eagles as my bubble team; I’m putting them outside the playoffs but can see them in if they keep Lito Sheppard. How good can Philly’s secondary be if they keep him?

Joyner: Lito dropped off. He takes chances and has high YPAs but the Eagles put up with it because he made plays and got picks. He’s stopped doing that.

BSR: What did Asante Samuel post last year?

Joyner: He was 7.2. Good, but not great.

I think the Eagles suffered letting nickel back Rod Hood go. He posted a 6.6 YPA for Arizona, which is very respectable. They replaced him with William James, who had a YPA over 11.0 last year, which is one of the worst marks in the league.

– Come back Monday for Part II, where K.C. will discuss Tony Romo’s ‘07, the difficult matchups he faces in ‘08, Patrick Crayton’s value as a number two and whether rumored WR target Joe Horn has anything left.

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