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How ‘Bout That NFC?!

September 7, 2008

I’m watching the Bears smack the Colts around and I wonder if the NFL’s center of gravity is shifting? Consider the AFC/NFC matchups this weekend:

  • Dallas 28, Cleveland 10
  • Carolina 26, San Diego 24
  • Buffalo 34, Seattle 10
  • Chicago 29, Indianapolis 13

Yeah, it’s week one, but look at the assumed cream of the AFC. The Patriots are in disarray, fearful that Tom Brady could be lost for the year with an ACL tear. Carolina didn’t play Steve Smith and still stunned the Chargers. The Colts are sputtering with a rusty Peyton Manning under center. They look a half step slow in comparison to the swarming Bears.

Only Pittsburgh looked dominant in the AFC today. It’s early, but we may be witnessing the AFC dropping back to the NFC’s level, which means the Super Bowl race is truly wide open.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under General | 50 Comments 

NFC Crystal Ball

June 22, 2008

The preseason magazines have started to appear. We used to rate them here, but gave up because they have this nasty habit of taking last year’s playoff field, adding maybe one “surprise team,” though they often have none.

As we’ve pointed out time and again here, there are on average four teams that go from losing records to the playoffs each year. Most of them have been in the NFC this decade.

Let’s ignore the magazines this time around and make our own picks.

I’ve nominated the Vikings as my new standout team. But let’s take it farther.

1. Pick the six playoff teams.

2. Who will be new to the playoff dance?

3. Any bounce-back teams?

4. Who are ’08’s big droppers?

I’ll take first crack.

1. The playoff six:

  1. Cowboys
  2. Vikings
  3. Saints
  4. Cardinals
  5. Giants
  6. Panthers

2. I have four new playoff teams — the Vikings, Cards, Saints and Panthers. There has been roughly 50% turnover from year to year league wide and I’m seeing more churn in the NFC, which has been the more volatile conference.

My final slot came down to the Eagles and Panthers. I’m giving Carolina the nod today, though I’d like to see Jake Delhomme’s health before I lock this one in.

3. My two NFC loser-to-playoff teams are the Saints and Panthers, with the Vikings and Cardinals moving from 8-8 to the post-season. I also see San Francisco yo-yoing back into contention but just missing the playoffs.

4. Big droppers?

a. The Redskins are trying too much change. They’ve lost their head coach and their DC, which means they’re putting in new offensive and defensive systems. They’re also relying a lot on their first-day receiver and tight end draftees;

b. The Packers should be good but what do we really know about Aaron Rogers. Their division will get tougher, with the Vikings and Bears improving. I don’t see them falling to 6-10 but 9-7 could happen;

c. The Seahawks have lived off their division’s weakness; they’re the only Western team to finish above .500 since 2003. They won 9 games in ‘06 and 10 in ‘07. I see them dropping out of the divisional penthouse with the Cards and 49ers improving. I’ve been burned before picking the Cards but they’ve been building their talent base and can win that division at 10-6 or 9-7.

d. The Bucs jumped back into the race last year by riding their defense. That offense doesn’t scare me. They’ve have 83 quarterbacks, which means they don’t have one. How much longer can Joey Galloway carry that offense?

Your turn.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under NFL | 29 Comments 

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