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Blog Merger

The AFL and NFL merged in 1966, ending the rancor and player stashing that existed between the leagues and ushering the Super Bowl era.

I can’t say if I’m going to play Tex Schramm or Lamar Hunt in this scenario, or even that you’re about to get the Super Bowl of Cowboys blogs, but  I can report that a blog merger has been in the works for some time and this Friday, Raul and I will join forces with Dave Halprin at Blogging the Boys.com.

The merger will bring together the two biggest, longest-standing Cowboys blogs and offer readers the biggest and best Cowboys blogging experience.

We’ll keep posting here through Friday but starting Saturday, you’ll find Raul and me and our story archive at http://www.bloggingtheboys.com.

You will have to re-register but I’m assuming many of you are already readers of both sites.

They Love the Nightlife

Big pressure?  A season in the balance?  A national stage?

Should feel like home to these guys.

Tony Romo made his first career start on a Sunday night in Carolina two seasons ago, with his team teetering at 3-3 after the Giants had cleaned their clocks on a Monday Night.

He overcame a rough start to close out a 35-14 win and start the Cowboys on a five-of-six run which propelled them into the playoffs.

This Sunday, Romo will again face a so-called “must win” gave with his team at 5-4 after the Giants cleaned their clocks at the Meadowlands.

The schedule makers may have put Dallas in their comfort zone:  they are 10-1 in the Romo era in prime-time games.  They were 6-0 on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday nights last year and are 2-0 this year.  The only defeat was the 42-17 spanking the Saints applied in ‘06.

What’s more, the Cowboys have posted some of their biggest wins in these games.  Here’s the record for night games with Romo under center:

2006

• Dallas 35, Carolina 14 - Sunday night
• New Orleans 42, Dallas 17 - Sunday night;
• Dallas 38, Atlanta 28 - Saturday night;

2007

• Dallas 45, New York 35 - Sunday night;
• Dallas 34, Chicago 10 - Sunday night;
• Dallas 25, Buffalo 24 - Monday night;
• Dallas 38, Philadelphia 17 - Sunday night;
• Dallas 37, Green Bay 27 - Thursday night;
• Dallas 20, Carolina 13 - Saturday night;

2008

• Dallas 41, Philadelphia 37 - Monday night;
• Dallas 27, Green Bay 16 - Sunday night;

Overall

• Thursday night:  1-0
• Saturday night: 2-0
• Sunday night: 5-1
• Monday night: 2-0

Average score:  Dallas 32, opponent 24

Will this record translate into a win against the Redskins?  Who knows.  Some of these games have been the ultimate Pepto evenings.  Last year’s Buffalo game and this year’s Philly game come immediately to mind.  It does seem that the Cowboys offense generally focuses better in these games.

If the profile holds, we’re due a shootout of the Landry/Gibbs vintage.

Persons of Interest

Two guys to watch, as I’m sure Dallas is watching them:

B.J. Raji and Ron Brace, defensive tackles, Boston College

The Eagles have the two biggest DTs in this year’s crop.  They’re the only two who top 310 lbs.  Both list at 323 lbs. and either could be a needed fireplug to play on the nose and draw double teams.

The Eagles alternate an over and undershifting 4-3 with a 3-3 package.  Raji is the squattier of the two, at 6′1″, 323, but he always plays the under in the 4-3.  He’s got a massive lower body, with great power and a nifty spin move on his rushes.  He’s rated in the top half of the 2nd round right now and while a wave of early-entry juniors could push him down, defensive tackles rise.  He may be too good for Dallas’ reach.

Brace plays the nose in both B.C. schemes and he “passes the eyeball test,” as the late draft guru Joel Buchsbaum used to say.  Like Raji, he’s got a thick lower body and a low center of gravity.  He’s quick, has a strong punchout and can walk guards back to the quarterback when he’s one-on-one.  He plays in a one-gap scheme but he holds his ground very well when double-teamed.  B.C. calls a lot of zone blitzes and Brace drops into shallow coverage a lot.  Against Notre Dame, he shadowed running backs a couple of times and didn’t look lost in space.

That said, he’s a space eater, and that’s one type of player the Cowboys need.   He’s rated in the 3rd to 4th round in the early mocks I’ve seen.

Watch both of these guys if you get the chance.

Don’t Curb Your Enthusiasm, Adapt It

I started in the Cowboys blogging business before the term blog exited.  My first campaign covering the team was in ‘95, when the won their last Super Bowl, so I have a nice stack of tapes with every game in that 19 game title drive.

And I look at them from time to time, to recall what a title team looks like.

When I do, I’m reminded that there are many ways to a championship.  I say that because the defense on that ‘95 team was just not very good.  Oh, it had talent, but it was very uneven and inconsistent.  Dallas had two superstars in its secondary — Deion Sanders and Darren Woodson.  It also had Larry Brown and James Washington, who were okay, but not very good.

The nickelback was often Bill Bates, whom 49ers OC Marc Trestman matched up with Jerry Rice in November.  The results were not pretty.

Dallas signed Scott Case, the Webster’s definition of band-aid, to add depth to safety. Case was known as a big hitter, but he hit mostly air that year because he was too slow to slam flesh-and-blood receivers.

The Cowboys linebackers were awful that year.  The Cowboys had signed former Oilers’ DC and LB coach Jim Eddy — the scapegoat of that epic ‘93 playoff fail versus Buffalo — to oversee them.

They jettisoned Eddy as soon as the season was over.

The Cowboys had a pass rush, but it lost a lot of juice when Charles Haley’s back gave out.  He didn’t play in the playoffs, made a brief cameo in the Super Bowl, and then was done as a Dallas dominator.  The Cowboys relied on Tony Tolbert’s creaky knees, which held up for a career year, and on manchild Leon Lett, who went nuts down the stretch;  he blew up the Eagles line in the divisional playoffs and picked off a Brett Favre screen pass in the NFC Championship Game.

Beyond that, the ‘95 Cowboys defense was big plays and a lot of crossed fingers.  It relied on its offense to carry it.  When Troy Aikman went out five minutes into game five, the Cowboys offense sputtered with Wade Wilson at the controls and they lost their 4-0 record to a 1-3 Redskins team that riddled their Deion-deficient secondary.

That defense never recovered from the whipping the 49ers put on them in week ten, when Trestman spread the offense, threw traffic at Sanders and got Rice to run amok on the opposite side of the field against Dallas’ linebackers and safeties.  The Cowboys won in Oakland the following week but held on in the 4th quarter when the ancient Vince Evans almost overcame a huge early Dallas lead.  Woodson’s late pick prevented a 24 point Raiders rally.

Barry Switzer was crucified for going twice on 4th and 1 from his own 29 in the game fourteen loss to the Eagles.  But he called this play twice because he didn’t trust his defense to stop the Eagles from driving for the game winner.  And he was right to doubt them.

Rodney Hampton and his Giants mates ripped the Cowboys for 244 rushing yards the following week and the Cowboys used a controversial holding penalty against New York as the springboard for a late, game-winning field goal.

The D got a reprieve in the Philly playoff rematch;  Darren Woodson knocked Rodney Peete out of the game early and Randall Cunningham, who had spent the entire week in Las Vegas to attend his child’s birth, was unprepared to step in.   The Lett pick and Larry Brown’s late interception slowed Favre down just enough to let the offense outscore Green Bay.  Dallas had no answer for TE Keith Jackson or Green Bay’s deep passing game, which roasted Brown to a crisp.

The Steelers controlled the clock and possession for the final 40 minutes of the Super Bowl.  An ability to stop the Steelers inside the red zone and Larry Brown’s sure hands on two gimme picks kept the Steelers from ever catching up to an early 13-0 Dallas lead.

That team won on offense.  The Triplets were in their prime.  Jay Novacek’s back was healthy.  The offensive line was dominating.

But don’t let a title cloud the fact that that team was one sided.  It outscored people.  The dominant overall performances from ‘92 and ‘93 were not in the cards.

This year’s Cowboys team reminds me a lot of that one.  It has a turbo-charged offense and a so-so defense.  There are some playmakers on the defensive side of the ball — Jay Ratliff, Demarcus Ware, Terence Newman and Ken Hamlin — and some youngsters who intrigue — Orlando Scandrick and Mike Jenkins.  Bradie James and Zach Thomas appear when their linemen protect them, which is not often, but they’re there to keep opponents under control.  Dominance is not in their vocabulary.

It may seem heretical to compare this offense to that one, but this year’s model has a greater margin for error.  It has far more tools at its disposal.  The ‘95 line was far more consistent, but turn your attention to the skill positions.  Emmitt Smith took over 90% of the carries that year because Sherman Williams was his backup.

This year’s team has Felix Jones.  That’s no contest.

That offense had Michael Irvin, in the middle of his career year.

It also had Kevin Williams opposite him and Corey Fleming as the 3rd receiving option.

Kevin Williams might be the 5th best receiver on this team.   He can’t compete with Roy Williams or Patrick Crayton and I’d take Miles Austin’s future over Williams’ past.

Fleming?  Sam Hurd is better than him.  And by that I mean Sam Hurd today, rehabbing in a walking boot, is better than Corey Fleming.

The ‘95 Cowboys offense was a blunt instrument, relentless and steady.  This year’s team is more like an exotic sports car, flashy, but prone to breakdowns.  But it also has more horsepower under its hood.

Don’t misunderstand me.  I’m not saying this year’s team will get on a roll.  It may lay down in Washington ten days from now and fade quietly away.  If it does right the season, it will proceed as the ‘95 team did, scoring in bunches and counting on the defense to hold the bad guys at 20 points.

It will not win the way the ‘92 team did and it will not win the way the ‘07 Giants did.  They got their turnovers under control and rode the defense — Eli’s guys scored 20, 21, 23 and 17 points in their title run.  Nobody will ever compare that offense with the ’80s 49ers or the ’90s Cowboys.

I’m sure the team knows this.  Get ready for the return of down-the-field passing, to T.O. and Roy Williams.  Get ready for heavier doses of Felix.  Get ready for Tony Romo to do his Joe Namath impersonation.  Get ready for Jason Garrett to channel his inner Sid Gillman.  He’s calling deep and Romo will throw deep — a lot.

This is how it has to be. Expecting the Cowboys to win any other way will bend your mind out of shape.

Adjust your expectations accordingly.  Your nervous system will thank you.

Early Shopping List — Updated

Updated:  Losing Makes Everybody Stupid.

Including the fans.  I’m seeing sites calling for Mike Jenkins to get benched for his olé in the 4th quarter.

People.  Keep your senses.  Mike Jenkins is getting better every week.  He’s the future at one CB spot.  He had a pick six Sunday.  He’s doing crazy things but he’s got an excuse.  He’s a rookie.  If he keeps doing crazy things, fine, but he’s got one stupid example on his resume.  Adam Jones, by comparison, has a career’s worth of ass-clownery.

But seriously, you gonna bench him and play Anthony Henry, the one-legged man?  Who’s better going forward?  A guy who’s getting better every week, or a guy who’s slowing down every week and who is again injured?

Would you have benched Leon Lett after Thanksgiving ‘03 for being a knucklehead?  And what would it have cost you if you did?

*       *       *       *       *       *

I’m not bailing on ‘08 by any means, but we don’t have to wait until January to list the areas of weakness on this team:

Defense:

Safety — Keith Davis was a special teams ace, who was released outright by Miami and now he’s starting at strong safety for the Cowboys.  We can debate his value versus Roy Williams ’till we’re breathless, but Dallas has nothing at their position right now.  I would not be surprised to see safety at the top of Dallas draft wish list next April.  Imagine the secondary with a Bob Sanders instead of Davis and the potential improvement is obvious.

Nose Tackle — Jay Ratliff is Dallas’ best D-lineman, and it’s not even close.  He got the big money first — and so far alone at his spot — as the Cowboys have wisely held off splurging on either Marcus Spears or Chris Canty.  The Cowboys would love to move Ratliff to DE, but can you trust Tank Johnson as your every down NT?  He had 10 starts for Chicago in ‘06 and has never started more than four games in any other season.

Defensive end — who bookends Ratliff if he moves outside?  Marcus Spears looked like a goner before this year but has showed flashes this season.  Still, he’s been very erratic in his four years.  And is any defensive player more disappointing this year than Chris Canty?  When a player disappears in his salary-drive year, that’s a huge red flag.  Jason Hatcher is MIA.

Guard/Center — The injury to Kyle Kosier showed the cupboard is bare at interior line.  Cory Proctor was a short-term band aid, but he’s regressed with every passing game.  A bigger, meaner version of Proctor, who can play center and guard, would be a godsend.

Tackle — Teams will tell you, they don’t draft guys to be backups.  Pat McQuistan and Doug Free looked like up-and-coming players under Tony Sparano but they have looked lost under Hudson Houck.  Which brings up…

Offensive Line Coach?  — The Cowboys had a choice this spring.  Hudson Houck was available, but so was Mike Solari.  Solari started his coaching career working with the Cowboys, working with the tight ends and assisting Jim Erkenbeck in the late Landry days.  He moved on and coached those nasty Kansas City lines which paved lanes for Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson.  He washed out in his trial as K.C.’s offensive coordinator last year but he’s got a solid track record.  Think back to December ‘05, when Johnson ran wild in Dallas, behind Pro Bowlers Willie Roaf and Brian Watters.  That was Solari’s calling card.

Solari has brought a fair Seahawks line up from 20th to 12th in rushing this year.  The Cowboys have improved a bit in that department under Houck, but the sacks-allowed mushroomed, even when Tony Romo was hurt.

Wade Phillips apparently recommended Solari for the OL job.  The Cowboys brought back Houck.  We’ll get a much better idea of things when Kyle Kosier returns but this is the offseason move I ponder the most.

Back to School

I expect half the team to return from the bye in good working order — the offensive half.  Tony Romo will make an enormous difference.  I’m sure lots of folks were having some nasty Ryan Leaf/Chad Hutchinson/Drew Henson/Anthony Wright flashbacks on Sunday.  QBs with ratings near 100, even those with wild streaks, change your football world view — tremendously.

It was lost in the debris of the Cardinals loss, but that game was Romo’s 32nd as a starter.  News flash — he’s good:

Splitting his numbers down the middle — and that’s fair because he’s been remarkably consistent — we get this average season line:

528 att.; 341 comp.;  64.6 comp. %; 8.3 YPA; 35 TDs; 19 Int.; 97.8 Rating

W-L:  23-9,  72%

Remember this — Romo has been throwing all along.  He has not been playing because he can’t take a snap, transition the ball to his hand and get a pass off quickly under a rush.  But he’s been able to throw all along.

Which means he’s been developing timing with Roy Williams.

– Felix Jones will be back.  He’s not practicing now, as a precaution, but he’s running with no pain.  We should see him in Washington.  He’s another guy whose value became immediately apparent when he left.  Defenses had no answer for him.  He was averaging at TD a game.

And Jason Garrett didn’t use him in the first Redskins game, so he’s still a mystery to them.

– Kyle Kosier should also be back.  I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Dallas’ best rushing game of the season came in his lone start versus Green Bay.  I don’t want to make him out as a miracle worker, but offensive lines function as a unit, and losing a starter often hurts you more than his individual value, because the entire unit is weaker.  He may only be 10% better of a player than Cory Proctor, but it’s hard to put an accurate estimate on how much his loss has hurt the line’s overall play. I’d put it as more than 10%.

I do think his return makes Flozell Adams and Andre Gurode better players.  And it makes the Cowboys a more balanced running team.  They have been very right-handed so far this year.

The Cowboys offense should be humming again after the bye.  Romo’s return alone makes them much better.  Adding Jones and Kosier, not to mention the unknown potential of a Romo-Williams connection and the points should return.

And every point will be vital, because I don’t know what can be done to fix the run defense.  That’s the task facing the staff, because they’re going to be the Chargers East if they don’t figure that one out.  A source I spoke to yesterday said the front seven defenders “are having a hard time getting off blocks.”

Getting them free will determine this season — and the future employment of a lot of defensive players and coaches.

Developing…

Mea Culpa

I wrote in the spring that coaching changes might bring out better play in the Cowboys’ lines and give them that small edge they needed to improve.

It seems I was wrong.

Oh, I don’t care about Brad Johnson.  He did what he did.  But Tony Romo will replace him in two weeks.  That’s not the bigger issue to me.

What about the offensive and defensive lines?  Nobody is going to replace them in two weeks.

Todd Grantham has failed to get his guys to play better than Kacey Rogers did.   The Giants are a very good running team, the best in the game.  But Dallas prepped for them and didn’t slow them down.

And they got mauled by the Redskins.

And they were abused by the Rams.

The defensive ends are playing terribly.  The inside linebackers are rarely making plays.  The Cowboys are getting gouged inside and outside.  Who replaces them?

On the offensive line, I wonder if Jerry erred when he chose Hudson Houck over Wade Phillips’ choice Mike Solari?  Because the meltdown in pass protection and the inability to get a push can’t be all Brad Johnson’s fault.

These are the same guys as last year.  Flozell Adams is not playing as well now that he has his money and the line clearly misses Kyle Kosier.  But they look soft and disorganized.

Kosier will probably come back in two weeks.  But who replaces the rest of these guys?

Trick or Treat?

My brain keeps running in a mobius strip, going over the same offensive and defensive points.  I think Dallas can keep it close and perhaps win if they can pick Eli.

We’re going on faith that the youngsters can repeat the Bucs performance.  I believe in Orlando Scandrick and am gaining faith in Mike Jenkins.  But Alan Ball?  Hey, I want to believe, mister, but all I have is 30 minutes of play.

Looking at the series the last few years, it’s surprising how often the matchup has confounded the predictors.  Think back to 2005.  The first meeting, in Dallas, pitted two of the hottest offenses in the league.  The Giants had averaged 34 points in their first month.  The Cowboys had averaged 32 points in their three wins, and had dropped 33 on Philly the week before.  The over/under was high.

The game was a 16-13 nail biter.

There has only been one blowout since ‘05, that being the ‘06 Monday Night fiasco where Drew Bledsoe finally cracked and handed the reins to Tony Romo.  Regardless of injures, the Dallas defense matches up pretty well against the Giants.  I’m discounting last year’s opener because those games are outliers, which distort our views of matchups.  In the other two games the Cowboys allowed 20 and 21 points to New York.

The line is Giants by 9.  I’m not a betting guy but I’d take the points if I were.  New York has not overpowered the Cowboys at any time in the last three years.  Unless New York has discovered the perfect steroids- masking drug, I don’t see the Giants suddenly overpowering the Cowboys now — unless Dallas gives them help with turnovers.

The trick for me is getting the Cowboys to 20.  I’m having a hard time getting there.

Come on, Alan Ball…

New York 20, Dallas 16

Your turn.  What’s in your crystal ball?

P.S. — just a hunch, but I think Roy Williams emerges this week.

One Vote for the Rag-Arm

I’m looking at the Cowboys-Giants matchups and I see lots of statistical similarities.  But there’s one stat that’s a Giants walkover:

Turnovers:

• New York — 4
• Dallas — 13

The Giants have turned the ball over in only two games this year, once in their season opener against Washington and three times against the Browns, their only loss so far.

Dallas turned the ball over in every game until last week’s Tampa Bay game.  That blank sheet let them outlast the Bucs 13-9.

Which gets us to this week.  I’ve seen lots of calls for Brooks Bollinger to start over Brad Johnson.  Please.  Raise your hand if you think Bollinger can go four quarters against the Giants rush, in an offense he’s trying to learn on the fly and not commit a turnover.

Bollinger has played a Jim Johnson scheme once.  He replaced Kelly Holcomb in a 23-16 loss to the Eagles last year and was a respectable 7-10 for 94 yards.  But that was in a Vikings uniform.  I don’t know if he’s got the Cowboys’ scheme down, having missed all of training camp.

The Giants are a blitzing team.  They’re good and it and they have to be.  I’m not impressed with their secondary, which has two new safeties and Aaron Ross regressing in his second year.  They’re going to do what they do, overloading the middle of the line, overloading a side, bringing corner blitzes and playing zone and man behind them. They’re a 4-3 version of the Cowboys.

This will leave room for the type of throws Johnson can make.  Slants, crosses, hooks, curls and seams.

If Dallas is going to compete, they’ll need another close game, of the type that they played against the Bucs and the type which the Steelers played against New York last week.   It’s too much to ask Dallas to stop the Giants run.  They’re averaging 5.1 yards an attempt.  But they need to drop this at least a yard.  Hold New York under 4.0 yards a carry and the game goes to Eli.

The Giants are a power team.  They no longer have Tiki Barber or Jeremy Shockey, the two biggest Cowboys killers of the past few years.  They’re a ball-control unit.  They throw deep now and then, but that hasn’t been their way in ‘08.  Plaxico Burress is averaging 12.7 yards a catch, tops among the Giants’ top three WRs and their tight end.  T.O., Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin all average at least 2 yards more than Burress. (Roy Williams’ sample size is way too short to measure.)

The Cowboys didn’t go heavy with rushes last week because they didn’t want Jeff Garcia to break the pocket and make big throws while on the run.  The Cowboys also played with precise lane discipline, to keep Garcia in the middle of the field at all costs.  This cut their rushing abandon as well.

They won’t be so coy this week.  Eli isn’t a scramber.  He’s steady in the pocket and the Giants have protected him very, very well this year, but that’s partly due to their running effectiveness.  He’s rarely in 3rd and longs.

In short, the defense can afford to crowd the line more and both play the run and blitz.  If the Giants come out pass heavy, trying to attack the young corners, they’ll probably do the Cowboys a favor.  They’ll be going against their tendencies.

Something tells me they won’t.  They not the champs for nothing.  They’re not 5-1 for nothing.  The Cowboys will have to prove they can stop Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward.

If they can slow it down, we’ll have to just wait on the old guy.  Hope he hits the slant to Roy Williams when it’s open.  Hit T.O. on his crosses when he’s clear.  Find Martellus Bennett on a seam against the linebackers when the opportunity presents itself. If he does, Dallas can get some short catches and long runs.

Johnson can make these throws.  Whether he will tells the story of this week.  But I put my vote with him, rag arm and all, to make the decisions.  If he takes a handful of sacks but protects the ball, the Cowboys have a chance.

And the Newbies Shall Lead Them

A big tip of the hat today to Tom Ciskowski, the Cowboys Head of Pro and College Scouting.  His guys found Alan Ball in the 7th round last year.  They gave the grades on Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick, whom Dallas traded up to draft in the 1st and 5th rounds.  They were the starting corners in the 2nd half yesterday, after Anthony Henry injured a quad defending a bubble screen to Joey Galloway early in the 3rd.  The kids played as well as guys named Newman, Henry and Jones, keeping Tampa out of the end zone.

The value of the win they helped secure is immense.  Dallas will now go into the bye with a winning record, regardless of what happens in New York.  They get to play with house money in the Meadowlands.  Few people are expecting them to win against the Giants with their deep list of injuries.

And yet, they’ll get a chance to make plays.  They might not get a chance to show it, but Dallas has the weapons to exploit New York’s weakness.  The Giants have a highly rated pass defense, but the New York corners have given up big plays.  Aaron Ross has suffered a sophomore slump.  The Steelers had receivers open in the intermediate zones and deep last week, but could not protect Ben Roethlisberger well enough for him to find them.

The Cowboys may not be able to keep Brad Johnson clean enough to damage the Giants either, but he’ll have targets.  New York won’t sit in cover two shells and take his deep throws away.  That’s not their style.  They’re winning with their pass rush and they’ll dial it up to eleven next week.

This means that simple slants and crossing routes to T.O., Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton will be there.  The lingering question is whether Johnson can connect with them. He’s coated in rust and is missing high with consistency.  The Giants will give him routes he can make and he’s got receivers to get open.  If he can hit just a handful of timing routes the Cowboys should make more plays than they did against Tampa Bay.

On the other side of the ball, the game will be decided on first down.  The Giants run well.  Dallas, until last week, didn’t stop the run well.  We’ll know early if the Tampa Bay game was a fluke.  Some stout run defense will give the secondary a chance.  The Giants are not a speed offense.  They’re a power team.  Their best matchup advantage, Jeremy Shockey, is now a Saint.  Kevin Boss is a possession right end.  They chased Tony Gonzalez at the trade deadline for a reason.

Amani Toomer isn’t a deep threat.  Plaxico Burress hasn’t been one lately either.  Steve Smith is their one big play receiver at the moment and he’s a master of working the middle.  The Cowboys don’t have to respect Eli Manning’s scrambling ability, as they did with Jeff Garcia, so I expect more blitzing this week.  A lot more.

It’s power versus power.  If the Cowboys can slow Brandon Jacobs to three and four yard runs instead of five, six and seven yarders, they’ll be competitive.  If they can complete simple timing routes, they’ll make some plays.  I have not convinced myself to pick them yet, but I’m not as down as a lot of people on these threads appear to be.

For the first time this year, they won’t be favored.  They’ll get to play loose.  I think this will be a real game.

Tampa’s Extreme Defensive Splits Give Dallas Hope

I’ve argued that the Bucs have been the most consistent NFC team so far this year, going 4-0 against winners and avoiding a blowout loss, something every other NFC contender has endured.

Blog-regular David looks deeper into Tampa Bay’s extreme home/road splits and finds that opposing QB play much better against Monte Kiffin’s guys when they can play them at home:

So far in 2008, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are two different teams on the road, at least when it comes to their defense. Here’s how four opposing quarterbacks have done in the surroundings of hostile (“Nobody Loves”) Raymond James Stadium:

Matt Ryan: 33-13-158, 0 TDs, 2 Int.,  Tampa Bay won
Aaron Rodgers: 27-13-165, 2 TDs, 3 Int.,  Tampa Bay won
Jake Delhomme: 39-20-247, 0 TDs, 2 Int.,  Tampa Bay won
Seneca Wallace: 23-12-73, 1 TD, 1 Int.,  Tampa Bay won

Total: 121-58-643, 3 TDs, 8 Int.

When opposing QB’s visit Tampa, they are a combined 0-4, are completing 47% of their passes, have thrown 5 more interceptions than touchdowns, and are averaging a wretched 5.31 yards per attempt. They’ve also been sacked seven times in those four games.

Three of these visiting QB’s have hardly any starting experience (Ryan was in his second career start, Aaron Rodgers his 4th career start and Seneca Wallace in his 5th career start). Rodgers was injured midway through the Green Bay game and Wallace’s top receivers were out with injuries.

On the other hand, Delhomme is a grizzled veteran, but Tampa’s defense should be starting to figure him out by now, having played him eight times since 2003. And Steve Smith did drop at least one long TD pass against Tampa.

Tampa’s defense also has shut down decent runners in the comfy confines of home as well, including Atlanta’s Michael Turner, Green Bay’s Ryan Grant, Carolina’s tandem of DeAngelo Willams and Jonathan Stewart, and our old friend in Seattle, Julius Jones. In fact, in four home games their defense is allowing 69 rushing yards per game at 3.3 yards per clip.

Now let’s looks at the three “away” games on the Buccaneers schedule so far; specifically, how the “home” quarterbacks have performed against Monte Kiffin’s defense:

Drew Brees: 32-23-343, 3 TDs, 1 Int.,  New Orleans won
Kyle Orton:  34-22-268, 2 TDs, 2 Int.,  Tampa Bay won
Jay Cutler:  34-23-227, 1 TD, 0 Int.,  Denver won

Total: 100-68-828, 6 TDs, 4 Int.

It’s a small sample so far, but the evidence bears out that Tampa’s defense – when playing “away” games - allows opposing QB’s to complete 68% of their passes, for 8.28 yards per attempt, and a couple more touchdowns than interceptions.

These opposing QB’s have been sacked four times in those three games.

Meanwhile, Tampa’s defense has allowed 123 yards per game (and 100+ in all three) and 4.0 yards per carry when playing in another team’s stadium. Per contest, Tampa’s defense is allowing 10 more carries for 54 more yards when playing away games.

No doubt a successful passing game feeds off a successful running attack, or vice versa. The fact is that the statistics show so far in 2008 that Tampa Bay’s defense is playing much better at home than away, against less experienced QB’s for the most part. Over the four home games, Tampa’s defense has allowed just under 220 total yards and just nine points (I’m not counting Green Bay’s interception return for a TD) per contest. During their three visiting match-ups, Tampa’s defense has allowed over 380 yards and 23 points per game. The stats don’t lie, nor are they even really just misleading – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have thus far been playing much better in home games than away games.

Whether the Dallas Cowboys, playing at home and led by a grizzled veteran QB of their own (and who Tampa’s defense should have some background info on), can take advantage of this recent trend remains to be seen.

Good News — Romo’s Out

Tony Romo announced today he won’t play against Tampa Bay this Sunday and probably won’t play again until the Cowboys return from their bye against Washington.

Why is this good news?

Because Romo is almost halfway through his rehab, which will take four weeks.  I was told by Dr. Luis Rios that re-fracturing the finger resets the rehab clock at four weeks.

“If you were going to try to play with it, last week would have been the time.  If Romo re-injures the finger then, well, then just you add a week to the rehab, that’s not too bad.  But what if he’s three weeks in, and you play him against the Giants and he re-breaks the finger because it’s not fully healed.  Then, you’re back to square one and he misses four more weeks…”

The Cowboys have already had an awful history this year of injured players trying to rush back and re-injuring themselves.  Kyle Kosier was going to miss three September games, came back after two games and re-broke his foot.  Now, halfway through the season, Kosier has just one appearance.

Terence Newman was going to miss the Browns opener rehabbing his injured groin, played three weeks in apparent pain, didn’t look like himself and last week had surgery for a hernia.  We’re halfway through ‘08 and have yet to see a healthy, pain-free Newman.

Roy Williams tried coming back as soon as possible and re-broke his forearm.  Now, he’s out for the year.  Anthony Spencer is now rehabbing a hamstring after rehabbing a knee.

Dallas needs to bite the bullet and let Romo’s finger heal completely.  It does not matter what the Cowboys record is the next two games.  Whether they are 4-5 after the bye, 5-4 or 6-3, they don’t have the slightest chance without number 9 under center.  Jerry should take some of Tex’s deposit money for his seats in the new stadium and send Tony and Jessica back to Cancun until the bye is over.

Same As It Ever Was

• 2006, at this point — 4-3;
• 2008, at this point — 4-3;

• 2006, penalty yards rank:  5th;
• 2008, penalty yards rank:  2nd;

• 2006, net punting - 38.0;
• 2008, net punting - 38.7;

• 2006 KO ret. avg./rank — 23.3/8th
• 2008 KO ret. avg./rank — 23.9/11th;

• 2006 punt ret. avg./rank - 8.4/19th;
• 2008 punt ret. avg./rank - 6.7/27th;

• 2006 opponent avg. start after kickoff — 28 yard line;
• 2008 opponent avg. start after kickoff - 31.5 yard line;

Bill Parcells was known as a disciplinarian.  A hardass.  He told Jerry when he was hired that he would need to win right away because his act would not wear well over time.  Kind of like Jimmy Johnson’s.  The Tuna’s teams didn’t take stupid penalties.

Bruce DeHaven had a reputation as one of the league’s better special teams coaches.  His Buffalo squads, with Hall-of-Famer Steve Tasker leading, were superb.

Then, both of them came to Dallas.  Their last team couldn’t stop committing stupid penalties.  It was mediocre on special teams.  It’s numbers are about the same as this year’s team.

We can cry for Wade Phillips’ head and Brian Stewart’s head and Bruce Read’s head but lets put the fair share of blame on the players.  Hard coach/soft coach.  Well known special teams coach/no-name special teams coach.  The results are almost identical.

And what has changed on the roster?  On defense, there are only two starters who were not here in ‘06 — Ken Hamlin and Zach Thomas.  On offense, Leonard Davis is the only member of the starting eleven who wasn’t a starter or key role player two years ago.

You can bring in a Bill Cowher or a Jimmy Johnson but if you don’t give him the saws and scalpels to perform radical roster surgery you have what you have.

Unless the players hearts — and brains — grow three sizes, Grinch style, it’s the same as it ever was.

It’s Time to Name These ‘Boys Sue

“And he said: ‘Son, this world is rough,
And if a man’s gonna make it, he’s got to be tough,
And I knew I wouldn’t be there to help you along.
So I give you that name and I said goodbye,
I knew you’d have to get tough or die…”

– Johnny Cash, A Boy Named Sue

Rams 34, Cowboys 14.

We’re angry.  We’re indignant.  We’re embarrassed. But we’re Cowboys’ fans.  Let’s not pretend we’ve never seen this before:

• 1970, week 9 — Cardinals 38, Cowboys 0.  A second consecutive loss that drops the ‘Pokes to 5-4;
• 1971, week 7 — Bears 23, Cowboys 19.  A loss to a weak Bears team in the infamous QB rotation game leaves Dallas 4-3.
• 1978, week 10 — Dolphins 23, Cowboys 16.  A second consecutive loss, this one in dreaded Miami, where Tom Landry always lost, drops the Cowboys to 6-4.
• 1981, week 6 — 49ers 45, Cowboys 14.  A second consecutive loss drops Dallas to 4-2 after a 4-0 start.
• 1992, week 5 — Eagles 31, Cowboys 7.  Dallas comes out of its bye week and gets thrashed on a Monday Night in Philly.
• 1995, week 15 — Eagles 20, Cowboys 17.  Dallas loses its second in a row and third in five weeks in the infamous 4th-and-1-x-2 game.  Their record is 10-4 but they’re being written off as yesterday’s champs, done in by Jerry’s meddling and Barry’s ineptitude.

Every one of these teams made it to the conference championship game.  Five of them made it to the Super Bowl.  Three of them won it.

I’m sure most of the Max Mercys in the press corps are writing about a coaching change today.  I’m sure if they were around in ‘70 they would have been calling for Tom’s head too.  Some of them were around in ‘95 and I know they wanted Barry axed immediately.   Don’t be led along.  You might want Wade Phillips and a couple of assistants fired too.  He might deserve to be fired.  But it’s not going to happen now.  When did a mid-season firing ever send a team on a tear?

This year’s team will have to look within itself, as these other Cowboys teams did.  It will have to draw on the devotion and camaraderie voiced by Nate Newton in the Philly locker room after that embarrassing ‘95 loss, when he said, “there’s too much love in this locker room for us to turn on each other.”

We’re going to learn how much these guys love each other, and how much they really trust each other.  Because today, each other is all they got.

So in the spirit of helping, and because I need to laugh to keep from grinding my teeth to the gums, I’m going to do my small part.  I will henceforth refer to the ‘08 team as “the ‘Boys Named Sue.”

They’ll either get tough or die.

There are No Heroes

13 Pro Bowlers, huh?  Let’s see:

1. Terence Newman — rehabbing an ailing groin;
2. Tony Romo — standing on the sideline with a broken finger;
3. Nick Folk — short kickoffs and a missed field goal;
4. Flozell Adams — an undistinguished day and a key offsides penalty on a 3rd-and-one.  Had another awful day blocking a speed rusher;
5. Andre Gurode — started the offensive meltdown by throwing a shotgun snap on an early drive.
6. Leonard Davis — did you recall anything he did, pro or con?
7. Marion Barber — fumbled for the third time in four weeks;
8. Jason Witten — committed another awful motion penalty in a key moment, snuffing out a scoring drive late in the first half;
9. Terrell Owens — was doubled again while his offensive mates fell apart;
10. Greg Ellis — invisible.  Was run at on the Rams second TD drive;
11. Roy Williams — where was Roy?  Probably with Waldo.  The Thong is cashing Demarcus Ware’s checks right now;
12. Ken Hamlin — missed tackles, not doing anything distinctive;

Demarcus Ware was the one guy who made plays today.  He’s the only Pro Bowler Dallas had on the field.

Mentally tough teams are not suspectible to extreme momentum swings.  The Rams scored on a big run immediately after Nick Folk missed his field goal early in the 3rd quarter.  These guys let down when they’re entrusted with a lead and they completely deflate when the offense isn’t leading the way.

Last year, in the world of soccer, Liverpool owner Tom Hicks made headlines when he allegedly interviewed former German national team coach Jurgen Klinsmann.  Hicks’ manager Rafael Benitez had won a suprise Champions’ League cup in his first year and lost another final, but was posting mediocre records in the regular league standings, even though he was given the big money signings he requested.

The team denied a new manager was being interviewed behind the scenes, but Benitez got the message.  His team is playing much better this year, and is today tied for top of the league.

Jerry Jones should take a page from Tom Hicks’ book.  (That’s right, I’m actually recommending emulating Tom Hicks.)  He’s got a lot of complacent players.  They shook off Bill Parcells and got the players’ guy they wanted.  The results have been the same.  Don’t listen to any finger pointing in the press.  Nobody not named Demarcus Ware should even speak to the press this week.

If Jerry wants to get his coaches’ and his players’ attention, he should schedule a “clandestine” meeting with Bill Cowher, and invite every paparazzo he can find.

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