Cowboys Defense by the Numbers: Anthony Henry’s Excellent Adventure
September 23, 2008
Anthony Henry heard for much of the preseason that the Cowboys were considering moving him to safety. He showed some misgivings about the switch, seeing it as a demotion from his regular right corner spot.
Sunday night, Henry got his first extensive work as a regular safety, the move prompted by Roy Williams’ broken arm. The Cowboys used two base formations against the Packers’ spread offense. They went big and bold, using a standard 3-4 look with three CBs and one safety.
They also used a lot of their 4-2-5 nickel set, but with a twist. Henry moved from the edge to linebacker, where he and Kevin Burnett patrolled the short middle.
Henry was so productive he may stay there a while. He was sent on a host of blitzes and finished with two sacks. He also defensed a pass when he dropped into a passing lane and tipped a pass incomplete.
The Packers did have a little success running at this set when the Cowboys deployed it on first down. The Cowboys are a bit light up front when they have six in the box and the two LBs go 228 lbs. (Burnett) and 207 (Henry). Dallas was careful not to use it again on run downs and thus kept guards out of Henry’s grille.
Greg Ellis complained long and loudly when he was moved to OLB. You rarely hear him any more, because he’s having too much fun. He now gets matched up against fullbacks, tight ends and running backs, instead of 330 lb. tackles. His sack totals have skyrocketed as a result.
Williams is going to be out a few more weeks, so I imagine we’ll see more Anthony Henry as the dime linebacker. If he continues to play as he did against Green Bay he might be the one campaigning for a permanent switch.
| player | att. | comp. | yds. | YPA | Def. |
| Anthony Henry | 4 | 2 | 35 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Adam Jones | 10 | 5 | 41 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Terence Newman | 6 | 4 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mike Jenkins | 5 | 4 | 55 | 11.0 | 0 |
The Packers are the first team to attack Adam Jones and the results are promising. He’ll start getting some picks if he continues to receive the attention.
Mike Jenkins looks like a rookie. It’s very common for a new corner guy to give up big yards and then settle down halfway through a season. He had the thankless task of covering Greg Jennings one-on-one most of the night and Jenning beat him on a slant and pivot-outside for 20 yards, which greatly inflated Jenkins’ YPA. Jennings also did the same thing to Henry, spinning outside of him for 25 yards on the Packers first play from scrimmage.
Dallas’ Rush vs. Green Bay
- 3 men - 2 plays;
- 4 men — 28 plays;
- 5 men — 11 plays;
- 6 men — 3 plays
Notes:
– Ain’t Too Proud to Crib
The Eagles run a very effective overload blitz, where they flank two outside linebackers together outside their four man line, rush both linebackers off the edge and drop the weakside DE into coverage.
The Cowboys used variants of this overload from their 4-2-5 and their 3-4 base sets Sunday night. The first time Bradie James got a free run at Rodgers and forced a hot throw for a five yard gain. The second time the Cowboys got two men free and forced an incompletion.
– Don’t go Too Tall Jones on us, Jay, okay?
Jay Ratliff has a nasty punchout. At least once a day during training camp, the 290 lb. Ratliff would bow the 355 lb. Leonard Davis backwards with a two handed stunner to the chest. Ratliff used this devastating move on Packers RG Tony Moll in the 3rd. The Packer thought he was set, but Ratliff’s punchout knocked him back a solid three yards. While Moll was trying to re-establish his set, Ratliff used a swim move to get past him and sack Aaron Rodgers.
– Everybody is getting in on the fun:
Bobby Carpenter got some reps when the Cowboys played a 3-2-6 dime package in the middle quarters.
– Chaos unveiled
The Cowboys used their chaos package in the 2nd quarter when the Packers were deep in Dallas territory. Dallas lined up with two down linemen, Chris Canty and Jason Hatcher. The team stood up four more potential rushers — Jay Ratliff, Kevin Burnett, Greg Ellis and Demarcus Ware — and let them roam along the line. Just before the snap, Ratliff jumped into a three point stance on the nose. Ware roamed out to the right end spot and Ellis and Burnett lined up directly behind Ratliff. At the snap, the two inside LBs criss crossed and broke the middle of the Packers’ pocket.
The play produced the desired chaos and an incompletion.
Your Dallas Cowboys Numbers of the Day
September 22, 2008
One — mark it down. Watch it again on your Tivo, cause you saw something exceptional last night.
Marion Barber’s 4th quarter hairball was the first lost fumble of his career.
Six — The Cowboys defense has absorbed six deep drives into its territory, three against the Eagles and three last night, and held the opposition to field goals. It’s week four. Adam Jones is still making mental mistakes, but the Cowboys showed no fear last night against the Packers. Dallas didn’t make any concessions to a team that has a better passing attack than the Browns.
For much of the game the Cowboys played a base 3-4 against the Packers three receiver sets. Dallas stayed in a front seven to maximize their blitz and their run defense. The Cowboys sole adjustment was removing the strong safety, adding Adam Jones, moving Terence Newman to the slot and playing with three corners and just one safety.
Aaron Rogers had only one play longer than 20 yards against this package. That was his first play from scrimmage, when Greg Jennings caught a seven yard slant and pivoted outside away from Anthony Henry for a 25 yard gain. Mike Jenkins is showing better coverage on the outside each week. (It appears the coaches are making things easy for him and fellow rookie corner Orlando Scandrick. Jenkins is playing outside on the right exclusively and Scandrick is learning the slot. With regular slot man Newman healthy, Scandrick isn’t getting so much work right now.)
Nine — The number of sacks the Cowboys have recorded the last two weeks. They played the top two NFC offenses besides their own and racked up nine sacks. Add this component to the improving coverage and we’re seeing the steady defensive improvement we saw last season.
But this squad has more tools to work with.
Patience, Grasshoppers. Patience.
Back to Work — Cowboys @ Packers Preview
September 19, 2008
Well that didn’t take long, did it. The Cowboys enter week three of their murderer’s row opening stretch, going to Lambeau to face the revitalized Packers. Green Bay is buzzing after opening 2-0 under Aaron Rodgers, who is helping the organization put Brett Favre in its rear view mirror with incredible speed.
When the Packers Have the Ball
The Packers love to spread you out, with three and four receiver sets. They also like to motion their backs wide and give you a full “empty” look, with nobody in the backfield with the QB. The Packers run a lot of quick timing routes from these packages, utilizing WR Greg Jennings in the slot. He’s lethal on yards after the catch and beat the Cowboys repeatedly last November with short catches that he converted into large gains.
Dallas is playing with a stronger secondary this time. Anthony Henry and Terence Newman played last year but Newman left the game for a critical sequence mid-game with a bruised knee. This is when Jennings got hot, beating Nate Jones for a 43 yard pass and Roy Williams on a nine yarder on Green Bay’s second TD drive.
The Cowboys have more cornerback depth this year and I’m guessing we’ll see a lot more strength on strength matchups. Look for Newman to go against Jennings in the slot.
Dallas line will face a challenge similar to last week’s. Rodgers is a very fast and strong runner and like Tony Romo, he runs to throw the ball. The Cowboys blitzed him heavily early in last year’s game and broke their lane discipline, giving Rogers wide lanes to scramble for first downs.
Look for the Cowboys to open in nickel, with four linemen. Even if they go 3-4, look for them to maintain strict lane discipline on their rushes, in order to keep Rodgers in the pocket. If they let him get free to his right he’ll make some big plays. He can find targets down the field on the dead run.
Discipline and tackling will be key this week. The Packers don’t throw the ball down the field very much. They work the short and intermediate zones hard, with lots of slants, crosses and quick outs off three step drops or quick throws from the shotgun. This makes them hard to stop when they find a rhythm, and Rodgers has been in rhythm a lot this year.
They keys to controlling them are to tackle immediately, and hold a five yard pass to a five yard gain. Make them work for every yard and work to get a sack or tipped pass to break up their timing. This task will be made a little bit easier by Ryan Grant’s hamstring injury. He’s been on the injured list with swelling on one of his hamstrings and this has robbed him of his top gear. The Lions caught him a lot on backside slants last week and kept the Packers running game in check.
Watch for backup Brandon Jackson, who gashed the Lions for some big runs as a replacement.
When Dallas Has the Ball
Dallas has been working the deep middles of opposing defenses in the Jason Garrett era. They did it to Cleveland in week one and did it to the Eagles last week when the Eagles began to double on T.O. outside.
The Cowboys made ribbons of the Packers middle last year, targeting linebackers and safeties with T.O. and Jason Witten. Owens was motioned repeatedly inside and got matchups on inside linebackers and safeties. He got behind A.J. Hawk in the second quarter for 48 yards on such a play. In the second half, Witten abused Hawk and Nick Barnett. The damage would have been worse had Romo not ended two second and third quarter drives by overthrowing a wide open Witten on 3rd down plays. Dallas punted only once the entire game and moved the ball at will.
The good news for Green Bay is that Charles Woodson, its best secondary player, will participate in this game. He missed last year’s game with a knee injury. The bad news — for them — is that he’s playing on a broken toe suffered in the opener against Minnesota. He does not practice during the weeks and walks out each Sunday and goes.
That said, don’t think the Cowboys will go hard at him. He had one of his best games ever on that bad piggie last week against the Lions. He plays the same role in the Packers defense that Terence Newman plays in Dallas’. He plays on one edge and then slides inside when the Packers run nickel. If the Packers are going to be bold, they’ll match Woodson against Jason Witten. Woodson spent his last year in Oakland as a roverback and has some experience playing the middle of the field.
The Cowboys might aim a couple of throws his way, but I think they’ll go elsewhere. And they’ll have targets. SS Atari Bigby has not practiced this week and probably won’t dress Sunday. Backup Aaron Rouse made some big errors, blowing assignments and missing tackles in the middle of the Lions game, when Detroit made some big throws in the middle of the field and rallied from a 21-0 deficit to a 25-24 lead early in the 4th.
Dallas also won’t be coy about attacking Al Harris. He was a Pro Bowler last year, but got the nod mostly off his solid ‘06. He’s big, talks big, and goes for big plays. But as we saw last week, Terrell Owens beats everybody. And he beat Harris consistently last year, getting him on a variety of fades, stops and go routes. Roy Williams roasted Harris on a stop and go last week, and then set him up for a quick out, where the Lion caught a short pass and darted past Harris for another big gain.
The press tries to make Harris into some latter-day Deion, but don’t be fooled. Here’s a comparison of two corners’ YPA and their interception totals from 2004 through 2007:
- Corner X: 8.4; 7.7; 6.7; 6.6; Average - 7.4
- Corner Y: 7.1: 7.0: 6.3: 9.7; Average - 7.5
Interceptions, ‘04 through ‘07
- Corner X: 4; 3; 2; 6; Total — 15
- Corner Y: 1; 3; 3; 2; Total — 9
Corner Y is Harris. Corner X is none other than Anthony Henry. His 8.4 came with Cleveland and, as you can see, he’s been a steady and steadily improving corner since coming to Dallas. Harris, for all his hype, has had only one exceptional year, in ‘06. He was awful last year and T.O. helped blow up his totals. He’s the Roy Williams of corners. He’s Anthony Henry without the picks. If the Packers had T.O. and he was facing Henry, how confident would you feel?
Special Teams: Each team has a return for a score. The Packers got a punt return for a score that decided the Vikings game. Dallas got a kickoff return from Felix Jones for a score last week. The coverage teams on both sides will be taxed.
Overall: The Packers are a good team. Aaron Rodgers is the real thing at QB. They’ll move the ball. They’ll frustrate us, Eagles style, with their timing routes which will move the chains. They’re going to score. They’re at home.
That said, there’s nothing the Packers can do that’s better than what Dallas does. Rodgers is good, but Romo’s rating is as good. Romo has an even better completion percentage and is a much better downfield passer. Dallas’ line protects better than Green Bays’. Dallas gave ground against the Eagles but after two weeks they’re ranked 10th. The Packers are ranked 22nd on defense. And what’s their excuse? They have played the touchdown-challenged Vikings and the Bad News Lions.
What stands out are the matchups, which favor Dallas almost across the board. Aaron Kampman is their best rusher. Fine. A one-legged Marc Colombo shut him down last year. Kampman was the ultimate garbage man, with 8 of his 11.5 sacks coming against backup tackles. Colombo is healthy. I can’t see Green Bay getting more than one sack.
They didn’t get any last year. And they blitzed like crazy. I’m guessing they’re going to blitz more. Tony Romo will welcome that. The Packers safeties are banged up and that means more fun for Jason Witten and T.O. in the middle of the field. Unless Charles Woodson is Superman, and is matched on and shuts down Jason Witten, the Cowboys will continue to move and score points.
On the other side of the ball the Cowboys have matchup edges with their ends on the Green Bay tackles. Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher gave up eleven sacks last year, as many as the entire Dallas line. The Packers spread you out and play a lot of empty sets. This means that they give little or no help to their line. Demarcus Ware and Greg Ellis got a lot of pressure off the edge. The Lions got a lot of heat last week. Dallas will get some sacks this week.
The Packers don’t even have an edge in penalties. The Cowboys take an ungodly amount of flags but the Packers take just as many. They run a very close 1-2 in this category. Last year’s game had nine for the Packers. Look for another flag-filled game.
The Packers are good. The Cowboys are better. And they’re 6-0 in September with Wade.
Dallas 34, Green Bay 21
Romo vs. Rogers — Battle of the Young, Old-School QBs
September 18, 2008
Tony Romo’s sudden success in mid-’06 caught a lot of people by surprise. Back then we argued here at BSR that Romo was quick to adapt because he was nutured in the old-school, apprentice system that was the standard in the ’60s and ’70s. A QB, no matter how highly picked, was required to “carry the clipboard” for at least a couple of seasons while he learned the art of quarterbacking. Think of Craig Morton, a top 5 pick for Dallas in ‘65. He was Don Meredith’s understudy for four years before becoming a starter. Roger Staubach was a third year pro before he earned a start.
There was a sound reason for the apprentice method — QBs back then called their own plays. They were “field generals” to a far greater extent than today’s signal callers, who read miniature play sheets velcroed to their wrists. Quarterbacking is still a difficult craft to master but putting the play calling on your coordinator shortens the learning curse.
That said, way too many modern QBs are rushed into play. The good ones, the Payton Mannings, the Troy Aikmans, the Tom Bradys adapt faster. Romo, being an undrafted free agent from a small school, didn’t have the pressure his big name peers like Quincy Carter, Chad Hutchinson and Drew Henson did. He could learn and grow without media scrutiny, though backup QBs are some of the NFL’s most popular players, no matter the team or city.
Romo had three years of pro experience before he earned a start. He was familiar with his offense, his teammates and the speed of the pro game. Aaron Rogers has started so effectively in Green Bay because he also learned in a pressure-free environment. Rogers was a first round pick but dropped about 15 to 20 spots below his anticipated range on draft day. He also backed up Brett Favre, who was in no hurry to retire.
Look at Jacksonville’s David Garrard, who looked like an old pro when Jacksonville finally made him a starter last year. Look today at New England’s Matt Cassell. He’s another guy with multiple years of backup experience. Replacing Tom Brady has not fazed him. He doesn’t seem to have the superstar potential of Romo and Rogers, but he knows how to move his team and minimize mistakes.
Romo’s and Rogers’ backgrounds suggest an interesting game. Both are still relative newcomers to their starting lineups, but neither is a newcomer to the pro game. Another duel, to rival Monday night’s, may be in the offing.
Which Teams Have the Best Corner Units?
July 16, 2008
In part four of the series assessing cornerbacks using K.C. Joyner’s YPA stats from 2004 through 2007, I move from individual assessments to unit ratings. Joyner has a new set of ratings in Scientific Football 2008. I’m not going to rely on these numbers, though I will relay that Dallas finished ‘07 in the top ten.
I’ve chosen to overlook his ‘07 ratings for two reasons. First, they’re exclusive to 2007. Joyner rates the corner units as they performed in ‘07. That’s fine, but with Adam Jones joining the Cowboys’ roster, fans are interested in predictive stats.
For that reason I’m using any and all of Joyner’s numbers from the past four years. I figure more is better. As you’ve seen, a player’s YPA’s can fluctuate wildly from year to year. If we want an idea of how a corner is likely to perform in ‘08, I think it’s best to use all the data that’s available. In Terence Newman’s and Anthony Henry’s cases, I’m using their four-year averages, since those numbers are available. In Jones’ case, Joyner has two years of numbers on him, so I’ll go with their average and will do the same with every other CB.
I’m also rating the units three deep, since nickel backs are vital in this era of spread sets. This will lead to some omissions that cannot be helped. For example, Buffalo will be playing a rookie, Leodis McKelvin at one corner spot this year, so I can’t put a number on his performance.
Lastly, I’m simply averaging the three player’s YPAs here, which does not give proper weight to each player’s contribution, so consider these “soft” averages. Therefore, I’m going to place the units in tiers, rather than in a column. By coincidence, there are only five units that have an average YPA below 7.0, so they form my pantheon. Here they are in alphabetical order, with each player’s average YPA in parentheses:
1. Chicago — Nathan Vasher (5.7), Charles Tillman (6.6), Trumaine McBride (7.1)
Vasher is the best corner we have not discussed yet, because I have not rated players with only two seasons of YPAs. Vasher was top notch in ‘05 and ‘06 but missed 12 games last year because of injury. McBride filled in and posted a very respectable 7.1 YPA.
2. Dallas — Terence Newman (6.2), Adam Jones (6.3), Anthony Henry (7.4)
Jones has an average near Newman’s and has a career peak topping Newman’s, posting an outstanding 5.4 YPA in ‘06. (Newman’s career best is 5.7.) If Jones can approach this number again, he’ll be a starter.
3. Green Bay — Charles Woodson (6.5), Al Harris (7.5), Jarrett Bush (6.6)
Harris gets a lot of love from the press, but his YPA is lower than Anthony Henry’s. Like Henry, he’ll break up passes but give up some huge gains. Bush was very good in his first year at nickelback.
4. Pittsburgh — Deshea Townsend (6.3), Ike Taylor (7.4), Bryant McFadden (6.0)
It’s feast or famine with this bunch. Taylor has been consistently average at one corner and therefore draws most of the action. Townsend and McFadden have alternated so-so seasons with off-the-charts good ones. Both had YPAs below 5.5 last year. If the pattern holds, they’ll be off this season.
5. Washington — Shawn Springs (5.5), Fred Smoot (6.8), Carlos Rogers (7.1)
Springs outstanding play the past four years raises this bunch, but Smoot and Rogers have been steady and good, if unspectacular.
NFC Crystal Ball
June 22, 2008
The preseason magazines have started to appear. We used to rate them here, but gave up because they have this nasty habit of taking last year’s playoff field, adding maybe one “surprise team,” though they often have none.
As we’ve pointed out time and again here, there are on average four teams that go from losing records to the playoffs each year. Most of them have been in the NFC this decade.
Let’s ignore the magazines this time around and make our own picks.
I’ve nominated the Vikings as my new standout team. But let’s take it farther.
1. Pick the six playoff teams.
2. Who will be new to the playoff dance?
3. Any bounce-back teams?
4. Who are ’08’s big droppers?
I’ll take first crack.
1. The playoff six:
- Cowboys
- Vikings
- Saints
- Cardinals
- Giants
- Panthers
2. I have four new playoff teams — the Vikings, Cards, Saints and Panthers. There has been roughly 50% turnover from year to year league wide and I’m seeing more churn in the NFC, which has been the more volatile conference.
My final slot came down to the Eagles and Panthers. I’m giving Carolina the nod today, though I’d like to see Jake Delhomme’s health before I lock this one in.
3. My two NFC loser-to-playoff teams are the Saints and Panthers, with the Vikings and Cardinals moving from 8-8 to the post-season. I also see San Francisco yo-yoing back into contention but just missing the playoffs.
4. Big droppers?
a. The Redskins are trying too much change. They’ve lost their head coach and their DC, which means they’re putting in new offensive and defensive systems. They’re also relying a lot on their first-day receiver and tight end draftees;
b. The Packers should be good but what do we really know about Aaron Rogers. Their division will get tougher, with the Vikings and Bears improving. I don’t see them falling to 6-10 but 9-7 could happen;
c. The Seahawks have lived off their division’s weakness; they’re the only Western team to finish above .500 since 2003. They won 9 games in ‘06 and 10 in ‘07. I see them dropping out of the divisional penthouse with the Cards and 49ers improving. I’ve been burned before picking the Cards but they’ve been building their talent base and can win that division at 10-6 or 9-7.
d. The Bucs jumped back into the race last year by riding their defense. That offense doesn’t scare me. They’ve have 83 quarterbacks, which means they don’t have one. How much longer can Joey Galloway carry that offense?
Your turn.
Who Are This Year’s Packers?
June 20, 2008
The outlook was lukewarm for Green Bay this time last year — and that’s from their unshakably-sunny fans’ perspective. I remember boos when they picked Justin Harrell with their top selection. The so-called experts didn’t think much of their draft either. Mel Kiper gave it a C+, as did Scott Wright. The team was enduring another will-he-or-won’t-he-retire Brett Favre melodrama.
In the end the team that closed strong to reach 8-8 in ‘06 started strong in ‘07 and zipped to 13-3.
This happens every year. The year before the Saints went from homeless to a good half of play short of the Super Bowl.
I’ve talked a lot about the Fantastic Four, the teams that go from losers to the playoffs, but I want to zero in on the NFC team that will not only improve, but be a legitimate threat in January.
I nominate the Minnesota Vikings.
They had the best run defense I saw last year, with monster DTs Pat Williams and Kevin Williams gumming up everything inside. They have a lethal running game with Chester Taylor and the magnificent Adrian Peterson. They’re already well built on both offensive and defensive lines.
And they got better this offseason, trading for DE Jared Allen and signing WR Bernard Berrian. They only had one first day draft pick, after the Allen deal, but used it on SS Tyrell Johnson, who builds up their weakest defensive unit.
The Vikings have Tarvaris Jackson at QB, so they’ll attempt to play the 2000 Baltimore Ravens model or the Houston Oilers model circa 1977 and 78: ride a stout defense, a top tier running back and an opportunistic passing game to the Super Bowl. Jackson will have some passing options, in Berrian and TE Jim Kleinsasser, but his job description will nonetheless read “busdriver.”
Those Earl Campbell-led Oilers came up short, unable to get past a more balanced Steelers team, but the Ravens won it all. In the era of parity, especially in the NFC, anything is possible. I still prefer Dallas’ chances but I think the Vikings will be throwing their weight around come playoff time.
A Reminder: Check out our “beat down-o-meter” on the right and pinch Donny’s wallet. You’ll get an extra week of camp coverage out of it.
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