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Turning Into the ‘07 Patriots in the Blink of an Eye

Update:  Multiple sources now say the deal is a 1st, 3rd and 6th for Roy Williams.

The NFL is a copycat league.  Last year the New England Patriots looked at their good but not great defense, their good but not great offense, their all world QB and decided that with limited cap space and draft picks, they would go all in on the offensive side of the ball.

They put their receiving corps on steroids, adding Dante Stallworth, Randy Moss and Wes Welker and figured their offense could outpoint any opponent.  The plan worked until the Super Bowl.

This offseason, other teams tried emulating the Pats.  The Redskins drafted a bushel of young wideouts and tight ends to supplement Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle-El.  Dallas approached the Lions and Cards for Roy Williams and Anquan Boldin.  When those moves failed, the Cowboys went all in for defense, trading for Pacman Jones and drafting Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick.

In one afternoon, the Cowboys went back to plan A.  Circumstances partly forced their hand.  Jones’ recessive knucklehead gene went dominant in a Dallas hotel bathroom last week when he got drunk and duked it out with a bodyguard.  The drinking violated Jones probation and earned him a four game suspension today.

Detroit’s slow start and the firing of Matt Millen made Williams available and the Cowboys snagged him for three picks.  Consider that Dallas added Felix Jones in the draft and its clear the Cowboys will be able to field their own version of the ‘07 Patriots in about a month.

Heal quickly, Messrs. Romo, Jones and Kosier.

In the meantime, how lucky must Brad Johnson feel?  He’s working with a depleted cast, with LG Kosier missing and Jones likely out a month with a slight hamstring tear.  Still, he’ll have Owens, Witten, Williams, Crayton and Austin as passing targets.  And Marion Barber had his finest receiving game this past week, with Jones injured and the Cards bracketing T.O. and Witten.

The short term still looks daunting, but the longer view just got a lot better.

*     *     *     *     *     *     *

The Detroit News says, “it involves at least a number one pick.”

This makes the receiving corps very interesting and deep.  We now see T.O., Williams, Patrick Crayton in his #3 slot, where he should tear it up again, and Miles Austin gets to keep developing without pressure.

The kneejerk reactions amaze me.  Pat Kirwan said on NFL Radio a few minutes ago that the deal, “gives Dallas some leverage with Terrell Owens.”

Is Pat one of those scriptwriting manatees from South Park who lives in a giant tank and nudges idea balls into our collective conscious with his nose?

Earth to Pat.  The Cowboys gave T.O. a big contract extension a few months ago.  Do you really think they’re going to eat his deal now?  And isn’t the idea to improve your talent level?

And let’s stomp out the “T.O. and Roy can’t co-exist” meme before it gets started.  T.O. was eager to get Terry Glenn back last year and have a “three headed monster,” in his own words, along with Jason Witten.  He knows from his San Francisco days playing with Jerry Rice and J.J. Stokes that the more weapons, the fewer double teams. I’m guessing he’s happy.  His owner just made a big move to take the double teams away from him.

Roy Williams was pouting in Detroit and didn’t like playing Calvin Johnson’s sidekick, and here, he’s again a supporting guy.  He’s probably the third option behind Owens and Witten, who are 1 and 1A in Jason Garrett’s scheme.

The linked story says the Cowboys re-worked Williams deal, so let’s hope he gave his team the much discussed, but rarely seen hometown discount.

It’s Adjustment Time

Pro football is a game of adjustment and adaptation.  You create an edge for your team and opponents respond.  If you’re a winner, you acknowledge their changes and make your own.

We’re one quarter of the way through the season and it’s time for the Cowboys to adapt.  On offense, they had strategies that worked very effectively against the Browns and Eagles but not as well against the Packers and Redskins.

Let’s go back to the Green Bay game.  The Cowboys had one pick in the red zone when Tony Romo tried a pass to a very well covered Jason Witten. Later, just before halftime, the Cowboys were in second and goal when they lined up in a shotgun formation, with Marion Barber to Romo’s right.  Dallas faked a draw to Barber and attempted a pass to T.O. running a post. This play had worked twice for touchdowns last year, most notably against New England, when the play fake sent Rodney Harrison into a conniption fit.

One problem.  One big problem.  Green Bay knew it was coming, and had both of Romo’s receiving targets double covered.  The play went for a huge loss.

The Eagles, in the second half of their game, went double on T.O. putting a corner tight on him and a safety behind him.  Green Bay did this with Charles Woodson.  Washington did this with Shawn Springs.  It hasn’t completely slowed Owens down, but it has slowed his production down from his first outstanding six quarters of the year.

This isn’t a call to panic.  Michael Irvin faced this type of attention regularly the last few years of his career.  But it’s clear that the better defenses have caught up to some of Dallas’ tendencies.  And it’s time to see how Jason Garrett adjusts.

On defense, better strong safety play is needed.  It’s funny, two years ago Dallas had no free safety.  Then Ken Hamlin was signed and closed the deep middle.  Now, however, Pat Watkins is looking confused.  Courtney Brown is playing some at the strong but has yet to distinguish himself.

It’s almost enough to make you miss Roy Williams.  Almost.

We haven’t talked ‘09 draft, and we always talk draft here.  Mark it down — Day one next April will target two offensive linemen and a strong safety.

It’s Hard to be Humble

This has been a trend going back the the old site in the mid ’90s, but I don’t know if I’ve ever shared it with you.

Traffic goes way down on the days after a Cowboys loss.  Yesterday’s traffic was only two thirds of what we normally get on a Monday.  But most Mondays, our biggest days, people are looking for affirmation of how great their team is.

Yesterday?  Not so many people looking for confirmation that their team played poorly.

T.O. Scares Everybody

In the early days of training camp, I mentioned that the workouts could be summarized with the phrase, “T.O. Beats Everybody.”  No player had a better, more productive camp than the man whose middle name is Eldorado.

The Caddy made Philadelphia’s ballyhooed corners look like refurbished Hyundais in the first half Monday night.  He not only beat Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard, he humiliated them.  Owens didn’t catch a pass in the second half, but his early level of dominance changed Philly’s second half game plan, and aided Dallas’ comeback.

Jim Johnson’s initial strategy was to blitz Tony Romo with some frequency.  On Romo’s 14 first half attempts, the Eagles blitzed five or more men on 6 plays, or 43% of the time.  The Eagles rushed four men on the remaining 8 plays.

The Eagles initially tried playing Owens with a single corner, but neither Brown nor Sheppard could stay wtih him.  He ran Brown off on a 14 yard curl route, then left both Sheppard and safety Sean Considine more than five yards in his wake on a 72 yard bomb.

Johnson showed some brass putting FS Brian Dawkins one-on-one against Owens in the second quarter. T.O. looked insulted after he easily beat Dawkins on a 4 yard slant for a touchdown.

The play that probably changed Johnson’s thinking came on Dallas’ next series.  The Cowboys had run the ball on every one of its first seven 1st-down plays and the Eagles had stuffed Marion Barber, walking eight and sometimes nine men into the box.   Romo’s 4 yarder to T.O. had caught them off guard, and probably explains why Dawkins was left alone against Owens — the Eagles were expecting another run.

Now, facing 1st and ten on his 20, Jason Garrett called his second 1st-down pass, sending Owens on a stop and go at Brown.  T.O. was again more than five yards behind the corner when he caught the ball, which he took 55 yards to the Eagles’ 25.  The play was called back by a holding penalty, but it affected the remainder of the game.

Johnson had to give the corners covering Owens deep help.  When the second half started the Eagles began playing a lot of cover two, with a safety always rotating to Owens’ side.  This meant the Eagles now were playing with seven in the box, and Marion Barber began to find running room.  He had only 14 first half yards on six carries, and he topped that on his first 2nd-half carry, a bend play around right end for 18 yards.  He gained 49 second half yards on 12 carries, a far more respectable 4.1 average.

Cover two also compromised Philly’s rush.  Thirteen of the Eagles first fourteen second-half pass calls rushed four men, a meager 7% average. The Cowboys’ line handled these rushes with relative ease, giving Romo time to work his backs and tight ends in the middle of the field against Philly linebackers.  When the Eagles went to man coverage, they still tracked T.O. with two players.  Owens cleared out the right side of the Eagles defense on a third quarter play from the Philly 17, giving Barber the space to catch a touchdown against the overmatched MLB Stewart Bradley.

That’s Why They Pay Him the Big Money

Amazingly, Garrett had the perfect play for the one time in that 14-pass sequence where Johnson blitzed.  He called a screen to Barber on a 1st down play where Johnson rushed six men.  Barber followed three blockers along the far sideline for 25 yards.  Johnson again backed off; he would blitz just twice more in the game.

In a fitting end to his evening, Owens beat the new Eagle Asante Samuel, drawing an interference call in the end zone that set up Barber’s game winning run.  T.O. left the field knowing he had gotten the better of all three Philly corners.

Owens appears to have found a 6th gear at age 34, one that makes good cornerbacks look stupid.  He not only beats everybody, he flat-out scares everybody, top-tier coordinators included.

Note: Updated offensive stats will be posted later today.

Scientific Cowboys: Dallas Flies Delta Past the Browns

One of the bigger questions facing Dallas during Cleveland week was how to maintain its attacking style with only three healthy, dependable receivers on the roster. Sure, the Cowboys activated Mike Jefferson for the game but he was a backstop, there in case any of the Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, Isaiah Stanback trio went down.

Last week, I predicted that Dallas would flex TE Jason Witten a lot more, to give him chances to get up the field. Of all the marquee tight ends in the game, none flexed — or lined up as a receiver — fewer times than Witten, whom Dallas used this way just 23% of the time. (Compare that to Kellen Winslow, who flexed 75% of the time in Cleveland’s scheme last year.)

The Cowboys flexed Witten a lot more in this game, 15 times of their 32 attempts, for a 47% average. The tactic benefitted the Cowboys in several ways. First, it put Witten out in space, where it is harder for linebackers to jam him inside and funnel him into traffic. Second, it diminished an already weak Browns rush.

A play from the early 2nd quarter shows Jason Garrett’s thinking. Dallas put in its 12 package, with one back and two tight ends. Teams normally put both tight ends on the line of scrimmage, outside each tackle, or put one in the traditional TE position on the left or right side and move the second around, lining him up in the backfield, on a wing outside the first TE, giving an overload to that side, or out in space, in the slot.

On this play Dallas flexed both Witten and Tony Curtis, lining each up in a slot, about seven to eight yards wide of Flozell Adams and Marc Colombo. Cleveland, lined up in its base 3-4, had to pull both outside LBs, Willie McGinnest and Kamerion Wimbley, out to cover the tight ends.

As a result, the Browns had only five men “in the box,” their three down linemen and two inside linebackers. The Browns don’t blitz very often and this formation meant that Wimbley and McGinnest, their two best rushers, were lined up far from the line. They could rush, but would never get to Tony Romo in time. The Browns either had to blitz an inside ‘backer or go with just their line. Cleveland rushed the three DLs and the Cowboys line handled them. The package dictated the rush options to the defense and made blitz recognition easy.

The Cowboys did most of their flexed-TE damage from a package I’ll call delta. It is a two-TE set in which one TE lines up in the standard position just outside a tackle and the second TE flexes on the opposite side. The two WRs flank the flexed TE, with each wideout a yard behind the tight end. The three form a triangle, with the TE creating the point.

The formation is a zone buster. It overloads one side of a zone, and can generate delicious mismatches. The first time Dallas used the formation it got Terrell Owens a clean release and no coverage on his 35 yard TD pass, a play I detailed yesterday.

Another play from the late 3rd quarter shows how the delta package again put Owens in a huge mismatch. Dallas lined up in Delta right, with Witten flexed to that side. This time, however, Tony Curtis flanked to Witten’s left and T.O. flanked to Witten’s right. Patrick Crayton lined up as the split end on the far left, with Marion Barber and Tony Romo in the backfield shotgun set.

Cleveland again played zone, with LOLB McGinnest in space opposite Witten and LCB Eric Wright lined up five yards off the ball on T.O.’s outside shoulder.

Before the snap, Curtis went in motion to the right. He lined up as a flanker, far outside T.O. This forced the Browns to slide their coverage with Curtis and switch responsibilities; Wright, responsible for the wide man on his side, now played Curtis; McGinnest switched from Witten to T.O.; Witten went from being covered by McGinnest to being in open space.

The Browns rushed four men, and played a four-across zone behind them, meaning the three non-rushing LBs and the SS took the short zones and the CBs and FS played three across in the deep zone.

On the right, Dallas got its two best targets ideal matchups. Witten got a free release off the line ran a square in at eight yards and held the inside linebacker’s attention.

Owens beat a McGinnest jam, and ran a seam route. Tony Romo waited for him to get clear of McGinnest, and made an easy toss to T.O. who was tackled by centerfield safety Mike Adams at the Browns six.

Look at the production from the variants of the delta package:

1. 35 yard TD pass to Owens;
2. 5 yard completion on a quick out to Crayton;
3. A 22 yard seam right to Witten that the TE dropped;
4. A 31 yard skinny post to T.O. that was negated by a questionable offensive pass interference call;
5. A 17 yard fade left to Crayton;
6. The 22 yard seam to Owens highlighted above;
7. A 3 yard screen to Tashard Choice run away from the delta grouping;
8. A 15 yard comeback to Isaiah Stanback, who lined up as the split end away from the delta group.

Total – 8 plays for 150 raw yards, a 18.7 yard average.

Completions — 6 plays for 97 yards, a 16.1 yard average.

The Browns simply lacked the rush and secondary depth to handle the delta look. The Cowboys got huge gains almost every time they ran this set. The only failures were unforced. A Witten drop cost the Cowboys at least 22 yards and the dubious interference call cost Dallas another huge chunk of real estate.

So long as the Cowboys line and backs can protect Tony Romo, it appears the Cowboys have more than enough firepower in their tight end and receiving ranks to play attacking football.

Cowboys @ Browns Preview, Part III

When Dallas Throws the Ball

The Cowboys run many of the same sets the Browns do, because the OC pedigrees are similar. Follow the bouncing ball: Jason Garrett played for Norv Turner and Ernie Zampese last decade and uses many of their aggressive, timing plays. Browns OC Rob Chudzinski was San Diego’s TE coach when Cam Cameron ran the Chargers’ offense under Marty Schottenheimer. Cameron runs the same schemes Turner does. When Chudzinski and Cameron both left last season, Chargers GM A.J. Smith hired Turner back because he would keep the same offensive fundamentals, allowing for a smooth transition to the new regime.

The bottom line is that you’ll see many of the same personnel packages from each team. A look at Dallas’ passing breakdown shows patterns similar to those we saw from the Browns in Part I of the preview:

Targets	Att.	% of Romo’s Att.	YPA
Terrell Owens	139	26	9.7
Jason Witten	141	27	8.2
Patrick Crayton	80	15	9.5
Totals	360	68

Look at the Cowboys’ table and look at the Browns. The percentages to the first three targets are almost uncanny. Dallas also uses its #1 WR and TE as options 1 and 1A. The second receiver also gets 15% of the passes.

The wideouts will be playing an underrated set of Browns corners. Last season Cleveland lined up Eric Wright and Leigh Bodden and got very good play from both. Wright was superb out of the collegiate box, posting a 6.1 YPA. He was very good against red-level wideouts and is Cleveland’s top cover man.

The Browns lost Bodden in free agency and are confident that nickel and dime backs Daven Holly and Brandon McDonald can step up. Both had YPAs under 7 last year, which is red-level, but have struggled in the ‘08 pre-season games.

The key to Dallas’ success will be getting T.O. away from Wright. Garrett was excellent at this last year, motioning Owens into the slot and working him on shallow crosses and seams over the middle, where he was matched up on linebackers and safeties. Nearly half of Owen’s ‘07 attempts came against these coverages.

The Browns use a lot of zone so look for more of the same. Don’t be surprised if Patrick Crayton has a strong game. He had a strong 9.5 YPA in ‘07, which ranked 11th overall. Crayton’s downfall is red-level corners. He posted a lousy 2.6 against top tier corners, so look for the Cowboys to line him up away from Wright as much as possible. Crayton was 9.2 or better against mid and low-level corners, so he may put up some big numbers working the rest of the Cleveland secondary. He had a Bob Hayes-esque 19.4 YPA against non-rated CBs.

If Isaiah Stanback can stay on the field and flash some deep speed (getting his hands on a deep ball will suffice, to keep the Browns corners honest) Crayton could get the favorable matchups he’s destroyed in the past.

It will be interesting to see how many times Jason Witten plays the F-back, motioning into the backfield and how often he lines up on the line of scrimmage and can run deeper routes up field. Deon Anderson’s health should see Dallas playing more two back sets, putting Witten outside an OT or in the slots, usually on the same side as Owens. This puts the safety on that side in the difficult position of trying to choose which option to cover deep.

When Tony Romo drops back to pass, he’ll be protected by one of the best units in the game. The Browns get a lot of ink because their starting five only allowed 10 sacks last year but Dallas’ starters only gave up 11. Flozell Adams allowed a league best one sack at left tackle and Andre Gurode was stellar inside. Mark Colombo is a bit weaker on the right side, giving up 5 sacks last year, but was gritty against top rushers.

The Cowboys line is dinged, with LG Kyle Kosier out with an injured foot. After shuffling several interior linemen into the LG slot, backup C Cory Procter will get the start. There’s some concern that Procter could have trouble with massive NT Shawn Rogers, the Browns big offseason acquistion on defense.

Procter will likely get help from his center and his offensive coordinator. Last year, Jason Garrett ran a 56/44 pass/run blend. What’s more, he skewed his play calling heavily towards the pass early and the run late. This tactic was very effective at wearing out defensive lines early, as it’s taxing for 330-340 lb. DTs to run several sprints in heat, especially when they’re chasing an active QB like Tony Romo.

Garrett used this strategy to perfection in week two last year against the Dolphins, when he had Miami’s DTs worn out before the half. I expect him to try the same tactic Sunday. Rogers is very talented, but is also very overweight and wears out quickly. I think Dallas will make him rush a lot the first two to three series, and send him to the oxygen tank as quickly as possible.

Dallas will be facing a Browns front that could muster only 28 sacks last year. Kamerion Wimbley led the team with 5 sacks. Cleveland’s top four rushers combined for 17 sacks. Demarcus Ware, by comparison, had 14 all by himself. The Browns rush may be further weakened by OLB Antwaan Peek’s knee injury. Watch his status as game time approaches.

Cleveland’s weak rush may be the deciding factor in the game. The Browns were criticized last year for sitting in zones and playing it safe early on. Their rush came on down the stretch and they have the talent to be troublesome when they’re healthy, but right now they’re not at full strength. Peek appears hurt, as is safety Brodney Pool, who recently suffered a concussion. He has not been practicing and may not play.

Romeo Crennell was Bill Belichick’s DL coach and he’ll try some creative ways to get his guys to Romo. If they fail early, he may call on heavy blitzing, which is exactly what Dallas is hoping for. Cleveland has talent in its secondary, but its young and somewhat erratic. If the Cowboys can prevent leaks at left guard, Romo will get some chances for big plays.

Three Factoids That May Shape the Cowboys-Browns Bottom Line

1. New DL coach Todd Grantham is already paying dividends, getting Marcus Spears to play far above his Kacey Rogers-era level and getting Tank Johnson into opposing backfields with regularity this preseason.

He may pay another dividend — as a spy. Grantham was Cleveland’s defensive coordinator last year and has as much insight into the Browns defensive capabilities and thinking as anybody in the Cowboys meeting room. I’m guessing he’s spent some time talking to the offensive coaches the last two weeks.

2. We’ve heard since OTAs that the Cowboys are working on nickel and especially dime packages that line up Anthony Henry inside, on opposing tight ends.

You won’t have to wait long to see them. As I pointed out in Thurday’s piece on Jason Witten, the Browns use TE Kellen Winslow Jr. as a wide receiver. He was “flexed” off the line, or lined up as a receiver on 75% of Cleveland’s plays last year, easily the most for any NFL tight end.

Dallas usually slides Terence Newman inside when it plays nickel, but the Browns signed speedster Donte Stallworth this offseason to pair with Braylon Edwards. In effect, they’re running a three-WR base set, with the 6′4″, 250 lb. Winslow as their slot option.

There’s no way Dallas is going to stay in their base and put Roy Williams in coverage against Winslow. The Cowboys may open in their nickel with Henry over the tight end and Newman and Adam Jones lining up over the wideouts.

3. How well would the Cowboys do against their offense? And vice versa? I’ve watched the Browns the last three weeks and notice their packages and offensive plays greatly mirror Dallas’. Cleveland OC Rob Chudzinski and Cowboys OC Jason Garrett are both aggressive play callers with gunslinger QBs who like to throw down the field.

Tony Romo had the third-highest percentage of bad decisions among starting QBs last year. Derek Anderson had the second-highest percentage. The difference is that Romo was more accurate and had a solidly higher YPA and a significantly higher SYPA (success % times YPA). Whichever defense is better able to throw their opposing QB out of his confort zone and press him into more bad decisions will have a huge edge.

4. Bonus crumb — A review of the Vikings video showed Alan Ball making several tackles as a gunner on the punt coverage teams. With Miles Austin and Sam Hurd hurt, Ball bought himself a longer stay with his special special-teams play.

Fun with SF ‘08 III, or Why Jason Witten Will Have a Career Year in ‘08

Update:  The Commissioner has re-instated Adam Jones.

I’ve written on many occasions the past few years about Dallas’ search for a fullback to replace Daryl Johnston. Some stats in the newest - and best — Scientific Football ‘08 illustrate how Deon Anderson’s shoulder injury hampered the Cowboys’ passing game, particularly the ways the team used Jason Witten, and how Anderson’s return can improve them.

We know that the Cowboys have been a two tight end heavy team the past few years. I doubt this is by design. The ’90s Cowboys relied mostly on what the team now calls its 21 package, with a fullback, a tailback, one tight end and two receivers.

The Bill Parcells Cowboys would have preferred this as well, but could not locate an adequate fullback in the draft. Lousaka Polite stuck around a while but never had the pop to excel as a lead blocker. The team had some success converting Oliver Hoyte from linebacker to fullback but he lacked the speed and receiving skills to play extensively.

The Cowboys appeared to have found their man when they drafted Anderson last year, but he went on IR after only four starts with a rotator cuff injury. Without him the team had to rely a lot more on their 12 packages, which have one back and two tight ends.

From this look the Cowboys use a traditional tight end, who lines up next to an offensive tackle, and an F-back, who flexes up and down the line, eventually lining up as a second tight end on the line; on a wing outside the first tight end; or in the backfield as a lead blocker.

Cowboys fans think of Jason Witten as the Cowboys tight end threat and of guys like Tony Curtis and the departed Anthony Fasano as the blocking tight ends, but in ‘07 those roles were reversed. Witten was the team’s primary blocking tight end. This is one big reason why Fasano now plays for the Dolphins. He struggled as the F-back and when the Cowboys needed tough inside blocking, they had to turn to their number one to get the job done.

That doesn’t seem to have affected Witten’s receiving stats. In ‘06, he ranked 5th among TEs with an 8.3 YPA. In ‘07, that number dipped ever so slightly, to 8.2. More consistently good play from Witten, right?

Yes and no. Take a look at the number of attempts Witten had in Sparano 2.0 in ‘06 and in Garrett 1.0 last year:

• 2006 — 90 attempts;
• 2007 — 141 attempts;

People frequently comment that Terrell Owens is the Cowboys number one and Witten is really the number two receiver. That’s close, but if you go by attempts, they’re really 1 and 1A in Garrett’s scheme. Owens had 139 attempts last year to Witten’s 141. That’s a 1:1 ratio. In ‘06 T.O. saw 152 balls while Witten had 90.

The loss of Terry Glenn last year greatly increased Witten’s load. Glenn had 112 attempts in ‘06. By comparison, Patrick Crayton had only 80 attempts as the #2 last year.

A closer look at the quality of Witten’s attempts shows how Anderson’s loss and Fasano’s flameout compromised Witten’s receiving capabilities. Let’s break down Witten’s attempts by distance:

Jason Witten	Attempts	% of Att.	YPA	Rank
Short, 1-10 yds.	97	69	6.2	8th
Medium, 11-19 yds.	32	23	7.3	6th
Deep, 20-29 yds.	10	7	10.4	5th
total	141	99	8.2	7th

Witten had an extraordinary number of short attemps. 69% of his catches were on routes of ten yards of less. That percentage was easily the highest among the bigger name tight ends. Only 49% of Antonio Gates routes were short; 59% of Tony Gonzalez’ attempts were short. Witten’s closest rival was Chris Cooley, who saw 65% of his attempts fall in the short category.

Yet, Witten was very effective in medium and deep routes. Of tight ends with more than 32 attempts (2 per game) Witten ranked first in medium YPA. Of TEs with more than 10 deep attempts, Witten far outranked his peers. His 19.5 deep YPA was more than six yards better than runner up Cooley’s 13.4 deep YPA.

Witten can make a case that he’s the best receiving tight end in the game. In ‘07, however, the Cowboys didn’t fully utilize him as a downfield receiver. Look at the number of times a TE “flexed” or lined up wide as a receiver last year:

Player	Attempts at WR	% of Att.
Heath Miller, Pitt.	14	23.3
Jason Witten, Dall.	33	23.4
Tony Gonzales, K.C.	59	41.0
Chris Cooley, Wash.	51	48.1
Antonio Gates, S.D.	68	62.4
Kellen Winslow, Cle.	105	74.5

Witten got far fewer chances in space than his peers. That’s no slam on Jason Garrett. Anderson’s injury made Witten the only dependable lead blocker the Cowboys had last year. With Anderson back and with Curtis and Martellus Bennett learning the F-back role, I expect to see Witten spending less time in the backfield and more time blasting up the field. I’m predicting a career year for him.

(If you want further evidence that Witten is the best overall tight end in football, this last chart should settle the argument. When you line up almost half of the time as a receiver, as Tony Gonzales and Chris Cooley do, you can’t be part of the discussion. When you line up as a receiver as much as Gates and Winslow do, you’re a tight end in name only.)

As good as Witten was last year, he has the teammates to let him be that much better in ‘08. That has to give the linebackers and safeties on Dallas’ schedule pause.

Fun With SF ‘08 II, or why T.O. is Happy With Jason Garrett as O.C.

At Oxnard, I asked Jason Garrett to describe the Cowboys’ offensive philosophy. “People get caught up in names,” I said. “They say this team runs a West Coast offense and that team runs a run-and-shoot. What offensive schools are in your playbook?”

He didn’t give it much thought. “People everywhere in the league run the same things,” he said. “It comes down to putting your people in the right situations…”

Terrell Owens, I think, would heartily agree. When Wade Phillips took over the team he remarked that the ‘06 Cowboys had used Owens almost exclusively at the X position (split end) and that his Cowboys would motion Owens a lot more and try to create more of those favorable matchups that Garrett mentioned.

Mission accomplished. K.C. Joyner’s metrics in his brand new Scientific Football 2008 demonstrate how effective Garrett was at the matchup game with Owens last year and why he’s considered such a hotshot assistant.

Owens, as I mentioned yesterday, had a top-tier overall YPA for 2007. Among receivers who were thrown the ball over 100 times, Owens ranked 2nd behind Reggie Wayne in this metric. And he wasn’t padding his numbers beating up on weaklings, at least not all the time. Owens ranked 4th in YPA when facing top-tier “red” cornerbacks.

A look at the types of matchups Owens faced shows Garrett’s skill. Joyner breaks WR attempts into five categories — attempts versus red, yellow and green corners; attempts versus unranked CBs (those who did not have enough plays to make his final CB rankings) and attempts versus non-CBs.

Owens had 139 attempts last year, meaning Dallas threw him over nine passes per game in his 15 games. Here they are broken down by class:

Terrell Owens	Attempts	% of Att.	YPA
vs. red CBs	18	13	9.4
vs. yellow CBs	47	34	7.3
vs. green CBs	18	13	10.4
vs. non-rated CBs	12	8	4.8
vs. non CBs	44	32	13.3
total	139	100	9.7

Note the solid numbers across the board, with the notable exception of those 12 attempts against Nate Jones-caliber CBs. It’s almost as if T.O. was bored playing against those guys.

The more important stat is the remarkably high percentage of attempts against non-cornerbacks. Teams knew every week that Owens was Dallas’ prime receiving weapon. And with Jason Witten motioning so much into the backfield (he ranked near the bottom among TEs last year in plays where he was “flexed” or used as a WR) you would think secondaries could key on Owens even more.

Yet Garrett was able to get Owens 74 attempts, 53% of his total, against green-level CBs, non-rated CBs or non CBs. And Owens tore up safeties and linebackers. His 13.3 YPA against them ranked only behind Randy Moss’ and Joey Galloway among full-time starters.

When you look at the tiered YPAs the OCs who can best exploit matchups jump out. I mentioned yesterday that Joey Galloway had a poor YPA against red CBs, yet he ranked 3rd overall in raw YPAs. That’s because Jon Gruden got him 54% of his attempts against green-CBs, non-rated CBs and non-CBs.

Want to know why the Patriots set so many offensive records last year? Look at John McDaniel’s success in creating favorable matchups for his guys. Wes Welker had 138 attempts last year and 90 of them, a solid 65% were against non-cornerbacks

Think about that. Teams knew Welker was the Patriots’ second option after Randy Moss and yet they could only get a cornerback of any quality on him one third of the time.

The best OCs can get their best weapons into favorable matchups regularly. Garrett’s success in creating such matchups for T.O. last year is one big reason why Owens was so eager to re-sign with the team. And it’s one more reason why I believe the offense will continue to be successful without a big-name #2 receiver.

I want to thank K.C. Joyner again for allowing me free rein with his stats. Scientific Football 2008 and his new book “Blindsided” can be ordered at: http://thefootballscientist.com

Trickeration Tuesday: Cowboys Camp Report, August 5th

…otherwise known as the Felix Jones Show.

The Cowboys showed some of their more creative plays today, all designed to get Felix Jones and Marion Barber the ball in space.  The team tried them in their initial sessions, where the plays are shown to the team on note cards and run against nobody.

They were later implemented in the 11-on-11 drills to end the session, and worked effectively.  Mostly, they showcased the elusiveness, speed and receiving skills of the rookie running back from Arkansas.

Three plays were out of the ordinary in the initial drills.  On the first, Dallas went four wides, with Isaiah Stanback as the split end and Patrick Crayton, Sam Hurd and Miles Austin on the opposite side.  On the snap, Stanback ran a slant towards the center of the field.  Tony Romo took a semi-roll right towards the trio of receivers, stopped and threw left, where Felix Jones had three linemen leading him in a screen down field.

On the next play, Dallas put Terrell Owens as the split end, with Jason Witten, Hurd and Crayton on the opposite side.  Before the snap, Owens came in motion right.  He continued into the backfield, as if to take a reverse right.  Romo faked to T.O. pivoted left and threw a throwback screen, this time to Marion Barber, who followed his escourt to an imaginary touchdown.

On the last play, Dallas had Stanback and Owens left, with T.O. in the slot.  Jason Witten was flexed off the left tackle, giving Dallas three receiving options upfield.  Felix Jones was alone in the backfield with Crayton on the right.

Owens again motioned towards the backfield and this time lined up as the tailback behind Jones.  At the snap, T.O. flared to the right, and Romo feignted a throw in his direction.

On the left side, Witten and Stanback both angled towards the post, clearing out the left side.  After Romo completed his fake right to T.O., he again turned left and threw back to Jones.

The offense tried these plays in their final drill, with the throwback to Barber off the T.O. I-formation look working for an effective gain on Romo’s next-to-last series.

On the final series of the day, Brad Johnson and Jason Garrett called three consecutive plays for Jones, and they hinted at the explosiveness the rookie can add.  On the first series play, Jones caught a throwback screen after the fake reverse to Owens and took the ball far upfield.

On the next play, he ran a draw left and slithered back towards the right for a healthy gain.

On Felix’ final play he again lined up as the lone back and ran a wheel route up the left sideline.  Felix got far behind his linebacker and caught what would have been a touchdown in a real game.

We likely won’t see these plays until the regular season, but we can see Jones’ raw skills on display Saturday against the Chargers.

Get your popcorn ready…

Source: The Questions Are On Offense

I talked to a source who broke down the issues facing the team less than a month before training camp. Although the offense ranked 2nd overall in points, averaging just more than four touchdowns per game, I was told the organization sees its biggest questions on the offensive side of the ball. Some key points:

BSR: What are the biggest concerns on each side of the ball?

– The defense looks solid. I think the secondary looks strong, the linebackers look strong and the line looks solid. In the secondary, Terence Newman is solid, Adam Jones is solid. I think Anthony Henry didn’t look like he was 100% in the mini-camps, but he should be fine.

I think one of the rookie corners will be in the mix, though I’m not sure if it will be the one [Mike Jenkins] or the five [Orlando Scandrick]. One will be in the lineup this year and the other will be inactive. We won’t really know until they put on the pads at Oxnard.

I’ll add that I think the secondary will be improved with Dave Campo running that unit. They appeared to be better fundamentally. Nothing against the last coach [Todd Bowles] but I think Campo is an exceptional teacher and the guys know he’s got their backs.

BSR: So you don’t see an overhaul positon wise? I’m of the belief that they’ll stick with Ken Hamlin at the free and limit Roy Williams’ reps, getting him off the field when they’re in nickel and dime sets.

– Absolutely. Teams find guys like that. I also think the team is playing Hamlin right. Make him do it more than one year. If he plays well again, then you think about something long term.

BSR: What about the offensive side of the ball? Where are the weak links there?

– There are a few questions there. I think the team wants to get a better sense of its offensive line depth. They have Pat McQuistan going into his third year and Doug Free entering his second year and they moved James Marten to guard. They’ll give their starters some time but you may see the young guys going two and three quarters in some games so the team can get a really good look at them against top competition.

I also have some questions about backup quarterback. Brad Johnson is a smart guy but when he’s in there the ball goes sideways a lot. I think he’s here for 2008 but I’m sure the team has an eye out for another prospect beyond this year. 95% of the teams in this league are cooked if they lose their starting QB but if Tony Romo missed any significant time I think the Cowboys are an 8-8 team without him.

Without question, the biggest issue is at wide receiver. The team isn’t panicking yet, but I do think they have some worries about the #2 position. The offense stopped scoring touchdowns when Terrell Owens got hurt last year. Patrick Crayton is okay but he’s more of a #3 than a #2.

The team was looking for a young receiver before who could become a number one and could not find a fit.

I think they might need a little luck to fill that this year. It gets harder to fill holes once camp begins.

BSR: I know the Tom Landry Cowboys often filled holes with trades for veteran receivers. Lance Alworth, Billy Parks, guys like that. Might Dallas look at a veteran who’s dependable, in the way Keenan McCardell was for the Chargers a few years ago? And does this explain the Joe Horn rumors?

– My understanding is that Horn’s agent was given permission to shop him. The Cowboys have not called Atlanta.

BSR: So this is likely his agent trying to drum up interest?

– Yes, but if you asked me would I take Terry Glenn with nicks or Joe Horn, I’d take Glenn.

BSR: If the team can’t fill this need via trade, does this mean they’ll turn more to a guy like Felix Jones as a receiver?

– I think Jason Garrett is a guy who wants to open things up and get the ball down the field. I think one of the bigger questions is: how fast can Felix Jones learn what’s going on? He has to be a blocker, a catcher and a runner.

He’s got the potential to be a matchup problem, because he’s an explosive player, and because Dallas has T.O. and Jason Witten and Marion Barber, who can play every down, and they’re legitimate weapons, so defense can’t just lock in on him. But they will if he’s not clear on his responsibilities. It’s going to be interesting to track him in the one-on-one drills in camp, to see how he does against linebackers. Will they rag doll him, or will be be able to stay square and hold his ground?

If he doesn’t picks things up fast enough he’s Reggie Bush, a guy you draw up special plays for. And he has to be better than that. If all he can do is run special plays just for him, defenses will clue in very quickly that he’s in the game to get the ball.

NFL Trends ‘08 - The Return of Lenny Moore?

Lenny Moore was the first double threat in the modern NFL era. He played halfback and flanker for the Johnny Unitas-led Baltimore Colts in the late ’50s and ’60s and was a blue-chipper at both positions. He made the Hall of Fame and a panel of former players and personnel men recently named him one of the ten best running backs of all time.

Recent news from NFL mini-camps suggests to me that we may see a resurgence in Lenny Moore-type running backs this year.

We have seen two major offensive trends in the recent NFL. One is towards spread offenses, which use base three and four receiver sets. The Patriots’ success last year with a base 3-WR, 1-RB package will no doubt be duplicated in this copycat league. The other sees more teams using running back platoons.

Reports from Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Dallas hint that the OCs there will combine both trends, producing an offense that features two running backs on the field at the same time, with one of the backs displaying Moore’s running and receiving skills.

Let’s begin in Tennessee, where the Titans’ OC Mike Heimerdinger was drawing up plays as fast as his hands could write them at the team’s first camp to get Chris Johnson on the field. His 4.2 speed was evident and the Titans will try to get him on the field in space in combination with Lendale White or Chris Brown. With Vince Young under center, the Titans are the closest thing the NFL has to an option-capable team.

In Pittsburgh, the Steelers are drooling about Rashard Mendenhall’s potential and are trying to get him on the field as much as possible. The linked story says he’s being tried as a kickoff returner but I would not be surprised if the Steelers tried some packages with Mendenhall and Willie Parker together.

Of course, we’ve seen reports from Dallas that have the Cowboys placing Marion Barber and rookie Felix Jones on the field together. Dallas tried this once in a while with Barber and Julius Jones but Felix has better hands and appears to have better open-field moxie than the older Jones.

One more tactic the two-RB package could revive is the no-huddle offense. The Bengals ran a slow version of a no-huddle, called the “sugar huddle” in the late ’80s when Boomer Esiason had Ickey Woods and double threat James Brooks in his backfield. That team would line up at the line of scrimmage and calls plays in a deliberate fashion, looking to take an offsides penalty when a defense tried to make a substitution.

Buffalo ran a more active and lethal version of a no-huddle in the early ’90s with its “K-gun,” a three-WR, one back set with Thurman Thomas in the backfield. Thomas could move all over the field and the Bills would exploit matchups while keeping a defense in its base or nickel packages.

The closest models to what we might see from Jason Garrett this year are the sometimes no-huddle packages the 49ers and Cowboys ran in the mid-90s. Dallas tried a power-version of this set, using FB Daryl Johnston as the flex back. He would move to the slot and sometimes line up wide. Johnston could do his damage — he made some enormous catches in a ‘96 win over the ‘49ers — but no one would ever confuse his moves with Moore’s or Jones’.

In San Francisco, the 49ers would sometimes open a game in their base set, with RB Ricky Watters and FB Tom Rathman in the backfield, and then go no-huddle, moving Watters into the slot or lining him up at flanker. Watters had played receiver while at Notre Dame and was a legitimate receiving threat. Because the defense could not substitute, it would either have to burn a time out or risk matching a LB or S on Watters in space.

Opposing safeties had to respect Jerry Rice and John Taylor’s skills, meaning Watters could run seam and post patterns from the slot and leave linebackers in his dust.

I imagine the Cowboys will use packages that more closely mimic what the 49ers did, with Jones playing Watters’ role. Since Marion Barber is a much better runner than Tom Rathman, and can pass block effectively, opposing linebackers face a conundrum: do they focus on Barber’s inside game and leave Jones in isolation or do they play the pass more and take their chances with Dallas’ run?

Whatever the case, we may have a new nickname for Felix Jones before the season is over — “Lenny.”

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