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Fun with SF ‘08 IV: How Ken Hamlin Got His Groove Back and Saved the Secondary

Longtime BSR readers know I’ve been using Scientific Football to bash the Cowboys’ inept free safety play under Bill Parcells. For whatever reason, the Tuna neglected the spot, trying to force a strong safety, Keith Davis, into the spot, and later trying to force feed rookie Pat Watkins into the position.

Both projects failed. Here’s a chart showing the free safety direct coverage play in ‘05 under Davis, ‘06 under Watkins, and last season under Ken Hamlin. (SF also tracks deep assists, where the safeties roll up in coverage to help corners.)

Player	Att.	Stops	Succ. %	Yards	YPA	Rank
Keith Davis ‘05	31	14	45.2	485	15.6	36th
Pat Watkins ‘06	11	4	36.4	227	20.6	36th
Ken Hamlin ‘07	22	13	59.1	107	4.9	*

After ‘05 and ‘06 it didn’t seem possible that the Cowboys’ free safety play could get any worse. Davis and Watkins ranked 36th among 36 safeties in their respective years. In other words, the Cowboys had the worst free safety play in the NFL during that time. Add in Roy Williams’ suspect coverage skills and Dallas had a gaping hole in its deep middle.

That’s not a good way to build a Super Bowl push. When Hamlin was signed in April ‘07 I wrote that regardless of whether the Cowboys got the mid-pack ‘06 Hamlin or the top-5 rated ‘05 Hamlin, they were due to improve.

Look at how much they improved. Joyner didn’t list the direct coverage stats for free safeties in this year’s book but only the late Sean Taylor produced a direct coverage YPA better than Hamlin’s. With Hamlin in the deep middle the one-play 70 yard TD pass drives Cowboys’ fans witnessed in ‘05 and ‘06 disappeared.

Hamlin’s yards allowed total is less than one quarter of what Davis allowed in ‘05. It’s less than half of Watkins’ ‘06 total. (And remember that Watkins was benched in mid-season, so his totals are only a fragment of the team total.)

If Dallas can keep its cornerbacks healthy, it can be a real force with Hamlin in the middle, no matter what type of year Roy Williams has at strong safety. Hamlin missed OTAs bargaining for a better contract but when you look at these numbers it’s hard to begrudge him one penny of his new deal.

Fun With SF ‘08 II, or why T.O. is Happy With Jason Garrett as O.C.

At Oxnard, I asked Jason Garrett to describe the Cowboys’ offensive philosophy. “People get caught up in names,” I said. “They say this team runs a West Coast offense and that team runs a run-and-shoot. What offensive schools are in your playbook?”

He didn’t give it much thought. “People everywhere in the league run the same things,” he said. “It comes down to putting your people in the right situations…”

Terrell Owens, I think, would heartily agree. When Wade Phillips took over the team he remarked that the ‘06 Cowboys had used Owens almost exclusively at the X position (split end) and that his Cowboys would motion Owens a lot more and try to create more of those favorable matchups that Garrett mentioned.

Mission accomplished. K.C. Joyner’s metrics in his brand new Scientific Football 2008 demonstrate how effective Garrett was at the matchup game with Owens last year and why he’s considered such a hotshot assistant.

Owens, as I mentioned yesterday, had a top-tier overall YPA for 2007. Among receivers who were thrown the ball over 100 times, Owens ranked 2nd behind Reggie Wayne in this metric. And he wasn’t padding his numbers beating up on weaklings, at least not all the time. Owens ranked 4th in YPA when facing top-tier “red” cornerbacks.

A look at the types of matchups Owens faced shows Garrett’s skill. Joyner breaks WR attempts into five categories — attempts versus red, yellow and green corners; attempts versus unranked CBs (those who did not have enough plays to make his final CB rankings) and attempts versus non-CBs.

Owens had 139 attempts last year, meaning Dallas threw him over nine passes per game in his 15 games. Here they are broken down by class:

Terrell Owens	Attempts	% of Att.	YPA
vs. red CBs	18	13	9.4
vs. yellow CBs	47	34	7.3
vs. green CBs	18	13	10.4
vs. non-rated CBs	12	8	4.8
vs. non CBs	44	32	13.3
total	139	100	9.7

Note the solid numbers across the board, with the notable exception of those 12 attempts against Nate Jones-caliber CBs. It’s almost as if T.O. was bored playing against those guys.

The more important stat is the remarkably high percentage of attempts against non-cornerbacks. Teams knew every week that Owens was Dallas’ prime receiving weapon. And with Jason Witten motioning so much into the backfield (he ranked near the bottom among TEs last year in plays where he was “flexed” or used as a WR) you would think secondaries could key on Owens even more.

Yet Garrett was able to get Owens 74 attempts, 53% of his total, against green-level CBs, non-rated CBs or non CBs. And Owens tore up safeties and linebackers. His 13.3 YPA against them ranked only behind Randy Moss’ and Joey Galloway among full-time starters.

When you look at the tiered YPAs the OCs who can best exploit matchups jump out. I mentioned yesterday that Joey Galloway had a poor YPA against red CBs, yet he ranked 3rd overall in raw YPAs. That’s because Jon Gruden got him 54% of his attempts against green-CBs, non-rated CBs and non-CBs.

Want to know why the Patriots set so many offensive records last year? Look at John McDaniel’s success in creating favorable matchups for his guys. Wes Welker had 138 attempts last year and 90 of them, a solid 65% were against non-cornerbacks

Think about that. Teams knew Welker was the Patriots’ second option after Randy Moss and yet they could only get a cornerback of any quality on him one third of the time.

The best OCs can get their best weapons into favorable matchups regularly. Garrett’s success in creating such matchups for T.O. last year is one big reason why Owens was so eager to re-sign with the team. And it’s one more reason why I believe the offense will continue to be successful without a big-name #2 receiver.

I want to thank K.C. Joyner again for allowing me free rein with his stats. Scientific Football 2008 and his new book “Blindsided” can be ordered at: http://thefootballscientist.com

Fun With SF ‘08, Or Why Anquan Boldin Isn’t Worth A Huge Deal

A few months ago, when the Arizona Cardinals were in a contract impasse with WR Larry Fitzgerald, I got a call from a source who wanted to discuss trade packages Dallas might assemble for him. This source has worked in the business a long time and has a very good idea of player value.

We discussed a 1st round pick and a quality player off the Dallas roster as a starting point. When I mentioned that this might remind lots of Cowboys fans about the Joey Galloway deal and invite a backlash, the source was quick and firm with his retort: “Larry Fitzgerald isn’t Joey Galloway.”

The question recurs now that the Cowboys have seen their back WR roster thinned by injury, with Miles Austin and Isaiah Stanback on the mend and with Fitzgerald’s WR partner Anquan Boldin screaming for a new deal. The Dallas papers invite trade proposals on a regular basis, with one scribe suggesting Dallas offer a 1st rounder, Marcus Spears, and Miles Austin for Boldin and a 3rd.

Fair? Not according to the metrics in the brand spanking new copy of Scientific Football 2008. K.C. Joyner’s latest is easily his best, with more nuance than any of his previous books. (I highly recomment buying it at your bookstore on or his website, where you can get an instantaneous electronic download.)

One area of greater detail is wide receiver YPA stats. In the past, Joyner has compiled simple YPA numbers, looking at attempts and yards against opposing defenses. This year, he not only looks at a receiver’s production, but the quality of the corners he’s beating. Joyner takes his cornerback YPAs and breaks NFL CBs into three categories: Red corners have YPAs under 7; numbers like this put them in the top third of the league in any given year. Yellow corners are those with YPAs between 7-9. They are what you might call “league average” corners. Green corners are those with YPAs above 9. They’re the bottom third, the guys you need to fill out rosters and nickel or dime packages, but would replace if you could.

Joyner notes that Boldin and Fitzgerald have almost identical raw YPAs. In ‘07, they were identical, with both receivers posting very respectable 9.2s, which tied them for 17th, just behind Randy Moss and just ahead of Detroit’s Roy Williams.

Not all YPAs are created equal, however, as Joyner’s ratings-per-color-level show:

Player	vs. Red CBs	vs. Yellow CBs	vs. Green CBs
Larry Fitzgerald	9.1	8.5	13.6
Anquan Boldin	4.9	7.1	15.6

These metrics tells a very different story. Fitzgerald, as we can see, beats everybody, red, yellow and green. His 9.1 versus red corners ranked 5th in that category, right behind some guy named Terrell Owens. Boldin’s 4.9? Not so good; that number tied him for 47th.

While their production numbers are almost identical, let’s not kid ourselves. Fitzgerald is the number one in Arizona’s attack. Boldin is number two. Teams assign their best corners to Fitzgerald — and he beats them anyway. Boldin is very effective at beating 2nd and 3rd tier corners, exactly as a number two should, but when Arizona has faced teams with two top quality corners, or when teams have assigned their top guy to Boldin, he’s struggled.

What can we take from this?

1. For all the abuse he’s taken in the press, Arizona GM Rod Graves absolutely made the right decision. He paid Fitzgerald number one money and is paying Boldin top dollar for a number two, as he should.
2. My guy was on the money this Spring. Larry Fitzgerald isn’t Joey Galloway. He’s much better. (Galloway, if you’re wondering, finished 3rd overall in ‘07 raw YPAs, with a 10.9, but was a lousy 53rd versus red corners, with a 4.6 average. This tells me Tampa Bay faced some poor secondaries in ‘07.)
3. These numbers should temper the outrageous packages we hear from the gallery for Boldin and Detroit’s Roy Williams. The Cowboys have a legitimate number one in Owens. The thinking pre-draft was to obtain a young receiver who could complement him and eventually replace him. Both Boldin and Williams can certainly complement T.O. but neither shows the top end performance to take his place. Williams’ YPA versus red corners was a poor 4.3, which ranked 58th overall. It’s not that much better than Patrick Crayton’s number.
4. That doesn’t mean that Boldin and Williams don’t have value. But Jerry Jones’ unwillingness to pay a number one price for a number two shows that he has good data at his disposal. If Dallas felt a real need to pursue Boldin, I’d offer Arizona a number one, but no more. Given the fact that Boldin is unhappy with getting $4 million a year, which seems like a fair salary to me given his game, I doubt that he would pout any less if the Cowboys got him and refused to re-work his deal. For that reason, I don’t think he’s worth the potential headache.

If Dallas wants to make the proverbial big splash and get a complement who can be a number one if T.O. gets injured, they’re better off asking about Steve Smith, who beats red corners for an 8.4 YPA.

Me? I’ll wait for Miles Austin to complete his rehab. If he can beat yellow and green corners, and not cost the Cowboys high picks and big money, he’s the best value.

Stop Living in the Past

I see the Kneejerk Chorus on other sites calling for Larry Allen to be re-signed to fill in for the injured Kyle Kosier. I’ll bet some of them even feel Allen could replace Kosier.

This isn’t 1998 folks. It’s 2008. Allen was an all-timer in his time, but that time has passed. Joyner’s pass protection metrics show that Kosier surrendered 2.5 sacks in 2007. That puts him in a tie for 29th, or mid-pack at his position. Allen gave up 4.5, tying him for 53rd. And Justin Blalock, the darling of so many draftniks here? He ranked dead last among guards, giving up 9.5 sacks.

Given that he’s been in retirement the past few months, I doubt a rusty Larry Allen could step in and be any better than the backup options Dallas has available.

The Scientist Visits the Doctors

Football Scientist and ESPN analyst K.C. Joyner will be our guest on The Sports Doctors on Wednesday. K.C. will discuss his new book Blindsided and the upcoming Scientific Football 2008, which goes to the publisher next week.

Submit your questions in the thread and listen in on our live stream, 5-6 pm Central Time. You can also call in live at: 888-806-1661

We’ll of course be commenting on Terence Newman’s injury and the latest camp news.  A special thanks to everybody who called in today and blogged in their questions.  We’ll try to fit in more questions tomorrow.

Which Teams Have the Best Corner Units?

In part four of the series assessing cornerbacks using K.C. Joyner’s YPA stats from 2004 through 2007, I move from individual assessments to unit ratings. Joyner has a new set of ratings in Scientific Football 2008. I’m not going to rely on these numbers, though I will relay that Dallas finished ‘07 in the top ten.

I’ve chosen to overlook his ‘07 ratings for two reasons. First, they’re exclusive to 2007. Joyner rates the corner units as they performed in ‘07. That’s fine, but with Adam Jones joining the Cowboys’ roster, fans are interested in predictive stats.

For that reason I’m using any and all of Joyner’s numbers from the past four years. I figure more is better. As you’ve seen, a player’s YPA’s can fluctuate wildly from year to year. If we want an idea of how a corner is likely to perform in ‘08, I think it’s best to use all the data that’s available. In Terence Newman’s and Anthony Henry’s cases, I’m using their four-year averages, since those numbers are available. In Jones’ case, Joyner has two years of numbers on him, so I’ll go with their average and will do the same with every other CB.

I’m also rating the units three deep, since nickel backs are vital in this era of spread sets. This will lead to some omissions that cannot be helped. For example, Buffalo will be playing a rookie, Leodis McKelvin at one corner spot this year, so I can’t put a number on his performance.

Lastly, I’m simply averaging the three player’s YPAs here, which does not give proper weight to each player’s contribution, so consider these “soft” averages. Therefore, I’m going to place the units in tiers, rather than in a column. By coincidence, there are only five units that have an average YPA below 7.0, so they form my pantheon. Here they are in alphabetical order, with each player’s average YPA in parentheses:

1. Chicago — Nathan Vasher (5.7), Charles Tillman (6.6), Trumaine McBride (7.1)
Vasher is the best corner we have not discussed yet, because I have not rated players with only two seasons of YPAs. Vasher was top notch in ‘05 and ‘06 but missed 12 games last year because of injury. McBride filled in and posted a very respectable 7.1 YPA.

2. Dallas — Terence Newman (6.2), Adam Jones (6.3), Anthony Henry (7.4)
Jones has an average near Newman’s and has a career peak topping Newman’s, posting an outstanding 5.4 YPA in ‘06. (Newman’s career best is 5.7.) If Jones can approach this number again, he’ll be a starter.

3. Green Bay — Charles Woodson (6.5), Al Harris (7.5), Jarrett Bush (6.6)
Harris gets a lot of love from the press, but his YPA is lower than Anthony Henry’s. Like Henry, he’ll break up passes but give up some huge gains. Bush was very good in his first year at nickelback.

4. Pittsburgh — Deshea Townsend (6.3), Ike Taylor (7.4), Bryant McFadden (6.0)
It’s feast or famine with this bunch. Taylor has been consistently average at one corner and therefore draws most of the action. Townsend and McFadden have alternated so-so seasons with off-the-charts good ones. Both had YPAs below 5.5 last year. If the pattern holds, they’ll be off this season.

5. Washington — Shawn Springs (5.5), Fred Smoot (6.8), Carlos Rogers (7.1)
Springs outstanding play the past four years raises this bunch, but Smoot and Rogers have been steady and good, if unspectacular.

Who Is the Best Cornerback: Do YPA’s Mimic the SAT?

The third story in BSR’s series exploring the question, “who is the best NFL cornerback,” looks at the value of K.C. Joyner’s YPA statistic. Does it measure innate cornerbacking skill, or does it measure performance?

The Educational Testing Service, the creators of the SAT exam, long maintained that their test was uncoachable. It, like all aptitude tests, claimed to measure innate ability, what an individual was capable of achieving, not what a particular student had learned. Therefore, cramming was deemed pointless, since it would not affect a student’s outcome. This belief has been exploded in recent years, as the test has been exposed as having a clear ideological bias.

K.C. Joyner has never claimed that his yards per attempt cornerback stats measure a corner’s aptitude. They are derived from pure empirical study; Joyner looks at tape of each NFL corner each year and measures the number of throws aimed his way, the results of each throw and the number of yards gained against each player. The results would seem transparent.

Nevertheless, readers of this blog reacted to my initial posting of corner YPA averages as if the stat did measure aptitude. Several readers questioned the stats, in part because the top ten CB list did not include Champ Bailey, the Denver corner considered the game’s best by many pundits.

Bailey missed the cut, though not by much (he ranked 14th among CBs with YPAs for every one of the last four seasons). He’s lower because he lacks consistency. Here’s his line, with his overall rank by year in parentheses:

Player-team	2004	2005	2006	2007	Avg.
14. Bailey - Denver	8.6 (66th)	7.1 (36th)	4.7 (1st)	7.8 (56th)	7.1

As you can see, Bailey’s averages floated in the bottom half in ‘04 and ‘05 before he posted one of the best seasons recorded in ‘06. He dropped back into the bottom half in ‘07, allowing more than three yards more per attempt that year. And it’s not as if Bailey sat on an island most of the game and was then surprised when an opposing QB deigned to throw his way. He was targeted 60 times, only marginally better than counterpart Dre Bly, who saw 78 balls, though Bly’s YPA was an awful 8.8.

Looking at this line, I see a mediocre cornerback, with three fair seasons and one incredible one. But what of that ‘06. Was it a fluke? These number suggest not:

Best single-season YPAs, ‘04-’07 (min. 60 att.)
1. Shawn Springs, Wash. -’04	4.2
2. Dre Bly, Detroit - ‘04	4.4
3. Champ Bailey, Denver - ‘06	4.7
3. - Fred Bennett, Houston - ‘07	4.7
5. Sheldon Brown, Phil. - ‘04	4.9

These are the only campaigns by every down corners the past four years to average under five yards per attempt. I think what we might be seeing are a general measure of a corner’s innate capabilities. These are the guys who get 1600s in the CB SATs. In Bailey’s case, he may not be the best cover corner year in and year out but his ‘06 shows that he’s more than able to play at an elite level.

In terms of using YPA as a heuristic, we can see that a YPA in the 4s signifies a sublime season, like a pitcher with an ERA around 2.00 or a hitter with an OPS above 1.300.

So Champ Bailey can be deemed the best corner in the game if we consider peak performance. But isn’t consistency the hallmark of a top player? Would you prefer a guy who can be incredible but plays that way only once a presidential administration, or somebody who can play very well year after year? Compare Bailey to the corners with the two best YPA averages since ‘04 and see how consistency ranks higher than flash:

Player-team	2004	2005	2006	2007	Avg.
1. Springs - Washington	4.2 (1st)	5.5 (3rd)	6.2 (15th)	6.2 (15th)	5.5
2. Newman - Dallas	5.8 (8th)	5.8 (7th)	7.1 (29th)	6.1 (14th)	6.2

To answer the question, I’m sure the Denver Broncos are happy to have Bailey on one edge of their defense, but if you ask Dallas fans, they’ll gladly take Terence Newman. He bounced back in ‘07, despite his plantar fascia injury and is a good bet to jump back into the top ten with more help in the Dallas secondary.

Another aspect of YPAs that deserves mention here is how they remake the term “shut down corner.” Fans take this term literally; when a blogger posted Dominique Rogers-Cromartie’s college stats, which showed opponnents completing less than 30% of passes in his direction, another blogger belittled those numbers, saying they didn’t reveal any special performance.

In fact, if an NFL corner posted Rogers-Cromartie’s line on a consistent basis he would get fast-tracked to Canton.

Stopping opponents 50% of the time appears to be the threshold for being considered a shutdown corner. In the last three years only 38 corners have achieved this — 9 in 2005, 17 in 2006 and 12 last season. Since shutdown connotes performance far above 50%, I think that the term be discarded or ignored; shut down corners simply don’t exist.

Only once in that span has a corner topped 60% in success percentage, that coming last year when the Raiders Nnamdi Asomugha posed a 62.9% success rate. Asomugha is the hardest corner to throw against, topping 50% in each of the last three years, the only cornerback to do so.

Might Asomugha then claim to be the best corner? Perhaps, but his YPAs indicate that while it’s hard to complete a throw against him, teams gain large chunks of yards when they do.

The YPA is hardly a perfect cornerback stat, but playing with YPA stats reveals a new cornerback world, one that elevates the steady over the flashy. Corners with 1600 SATs are impressive, but it’s the guys with scores in the 1200 and 1300s, the cornerback nerds who grind day-after-day and year-after-year who have the most success.

Who Is the Best Cover Corner?

This is the first in a series of pieces on the top cover cornerbacks and secondaries.

Who is the best NFL cover corner? Who has the best coverage unit around? The question is being kicked around a lot these days, with cornerbacks getting free agent contracts that rival those of quarterbacks for sheer dollars and bonuses.

I’ve come across several lists in recent weeks, all going off reputations, some earned, some not. BSR has decided to pursue these questions with the use of the largest database of corner coverage stats around. K.C. Joyner, the author of the Scientific Football books, will soon release Scientific Football 2008, the fourth edition of his series.

Joyner’s forte is breaking down the passing game, from offensive and defensive perspectives. His CB YPA will shortly become, in my opinion, shorthand for measuring a corner’s skills, in the same way that OPS has become the one stat that can best convey a baseball hitter’s skills. It’s easy to calculate and easy to understand. It shows how many yards a corner surrendered on average every time a pass was thrown to his man.

K.C. prints out a YPA ranking every year and in this year’s book has ranked the teams by tandem, calculating the average YPAs for the starting CB duos on each team.

What he has not yet done is compile YPAs over a longer span, say the last three or four years. When he learned I was putting such a spreadsheet together, he kindly forwarded his 2007 YPA rankings, which will not be published for several more weeks, and gave me permission to publish pieces from my calculated averages. BSR readers will therefore be the first to see these numbers. If you are not a regular Joyner reader, I highly recommend his ESPN columns and his books which can be ordered here.

The spread sheet raised as many questions as it answered. Although I have four years of data at my disposal, is it fair to omit a cornerback who has only played two or three years, but at a high level? What about a player who has missed a year due to injury?

In addition, what about players who have solid numbers but show a steady decline. Should I rate them above or below a player who has a similar number but whose averages are improving?

For now, I’ve decided to offer these breakdowns as a starting point for discussion, not as the last word in the debate over which players are best and which units are best. I’m going to offer two individual lists, one showing the best cornerbacks for the last four years and one for the last three years. The reason I’m pushing the data to be comprehensive is the generally inconsistent level of CB play from one year to the next.

It’s fairly routine to see a corner, even a good one, have two stellar years, then drop off a year and then bounce back strong again. For examples, look at the lines for Deshea Townsend and Ronde Barber on the top ten list below.

I’m sure there are many factors for a dropoff. A corner might be playing hurt. He may lose his confidence for a stretch of the season or an entire campaign. His pass rush might be weaker one given year. Whatever the case, there are not many corners in my sample who strung four strong years together. Even the better ones had a so-so year somewhere in the mix.

That said, I believe that a player must display consistency in order to be considered tops at his position. So my first list will, with one exception, include only those players who have posted numbers for the last four years.

Player-team	2004	2005	2006	2007	YPA Avg.
1. Springs - Washington	4.2	5.5	6.2	6.2	5.5
2. Newman - Dallas	5.8	5.8	7.1	6.1	6.2
4T. Townsend - Pittsburgh	7.1	5.1	7.8	5.2	6.3
4T. Barber - Tampa Bay	5.7	6.7	7.9	4.9	6.3
6T. Woodson - Green Bay	7.0	*	5.3	7.2	6.5
6T. Lucas - Carolina	7.9	5.8	5.2	7.2	6.5
7. O’Neal - Cincinnati	5.8	6.6	6.8	7.0	6.6
8. Smoot - Washington	7.6	7.2	6.9	5.5	6.8
10T. Jammer - San Diego	7.8	7.5	6.2	5.9	6.9
10T. Asomugha - Oakland	7.5	6.3	6.9	7.0	6.9

(*Charles Woodson did not get a rating in ‘05 because he was playing a rover position in Oakland’s system and did not qualify for the CB ratings.)

Some observations:

– The cornerback positon is incredibly unstable. You don’t think of corner as an attrition position, like running back, but there are only 40 players who had qualifying numbers each of the last four years. That’s just 1.25 per team. This is why cornerbacks who hit the open market make so much money. The demand for solid corners does not come close to meeting demand.

– Raise your hand if you considered Shawn Springs one of the top five corners in the game. I considered him for my top-of-my-head top ten, but he’s been the best YPA guy in the league the past four years.

– Raise both hands if you had Deshea Townsend in your top 20.

– There’s Terence Newman, Cowboys’ fans, parked at #2. His highest ranking in any given year has been 8th, but as you can see he’s been Mr. Steady. His 6.1 last year is even more impressive given his heel injury.

– In the what might have been category, check out Ken Lucas at 6th. The year he hit free agency he was rated higher by the Dallas scouting staff than Anthony Henry. Bill Parcells took the recommendation of Todd Bowles, who had coached Henry in Cleveland and who is now with the Tuna in Miami. Had Parcells pursued Lucas instead — Lucas did cost more — he might still be coaching.

– Notice the big names not on this list: Champ Bailey, Chris McAlister, Nate Clements, Asante Samuel? Inconsistency put them down the list. Bailey had one of the best years Joyner has ever recorded in ‘06, but it’s his only exceptional year the last four. He ranked in the bottom half in ‘04 and ‘05.

– Lastly, YPA tells us a lot, but don’t rush to judgments on guys who are on the list or are not. One fact that nags at me is that gambling, CBs, who Joyner calls “ball-hawks,” often have higher YPAs. Antonio Cromartie, for example, only had a 7.2 YPA last year, which is about league average. Guys like this will give up more intermediate and big throws in exchange for more picks. Conversely, CBs in cover two systems tend to have lower YPAs than they do when they play in more aggresive systems. Should we take the YPAs straight or weight them somewhat depending on a player’s personal style and scheme?

I’ll repeat, take this chart as a point of departure. Discuss.

Next: The top 10 CBs by YPA for the last three years.

Programming Note: I, like our Vice President, will be spending the next few days in an “undisclosed location.” I don’t know if his getaways involve a comely blonde, but mine will. I’ll see you folks again oh, Thursday.

Maybe.

Submit Your Questions

… for my upcoming podcast with K.C. Joyner in the thread.

There are a lot of cornerback comparisons being submitted at this time, so I thought I would conduct my own. I’ve put together a spread sheet with the YPA averages for all NFC East CBs and some for CBs on other highly regarded units, like Denver’s, San Diego’s and Green Bay’s from 2004 through 2006.

I’m eagerly awaiting my copy of Scientific Football 2008 to factor in last year’s scores. I can tell you already that Philadelphia’s corners don’t match up to Dallas’. How do the Cowboys stack up against the rest of the field? Stay tuned.

I’m also going to list the top ten CBs by YPA over that four year span. I can also tell you that Terence Newman will rate veeeeery well but don’t yet know just how well.

Tony Romo, Tough ‘08 Matchups and Who Needs a 2nd Receiver? K.C. Joyner Returns, Part II

Today, K.C. turns his attention to the offensive side of the ball.

BSR: Last year your write up of Tony Romo said he was probably NFL QB at intermediate range throws. How would you rate his ‘07 game. Did he improve, regress or stay about the same?

Joyner: I think he regressed a little bit. His bad decisions increased. I think teams forced him to be more patient, to be willing to go down the field in 10 to 12 yard throws. He wasn’t always willing to do this, as you saw in the Buffalo game.

BSR: I’m amazed at the amount of abuse he gets because the Cowboys lost to the Giants. He’s only played one full season in the league and he’s sometimes portrayed as a failure, as if he’s got this long habit of choking that he needs to overcome.

Joyner: I know what you’re saying. I remember when he dropped the field goal snap in Seattle in ‘06 and people were telling me his career was over, and I remember saying, “no, that’s a good NFL quarterback.”

He’s not the guy who’s going to be the benefit of the doubt. When Peyton Manning started in Indy, he was the cornerstone. They had a ton invested him and he had a reputation for being the hardest working guy on the team, so even though he had trouble in his early playoffs he was given a lot of slack.

The press sees Romo with starlets and they see Joe Namath. He’s not given a lot of slack.

Roger Staubach was an excellent quarterback but he lost Super Bowl 10 to the Steelers, he lost to them in ‘77 when Dallas won the title, he lost Super Bowl 13 the following year and lost Super Bowl 13 and a half in ‘79. He was 0-4 against Terry Bradshaw and the Steelers but you never hear, “oh, Roger could never beat the Steelers.”

BSR: Adam Schefter of the NFL Network reported that Dallas was supposedly interested in Joe Horn. Does he have anything left?

Joyner: Joe Horn did not have enough attempts to qualify for my ratings but his numbers were between five and six, which are not good.

I have to wonder why they feel they need another complementary receiver. I have a new rating this year, where I look at how a receiver did against three different classes of corners. I classify any CB with a YPA below 7 yards as a red corner, a CB with a YPA between 7 and 9 as a yellow corner and any corner with a YPA above 9 as a green corners. Reds are matchups you tend to avoid, yellows you attack with caution and greens are great matchups for a quarterback.

Last year, Patrick Crayton had a 5.4 YPA against red corners, which is not very good. But his YPA against yellow CBs and against green CBs was above nine. Now a YPA around ten will usually rate a receiver at the top of the league.

This means that when he was not matched up against elite corners, Patrick Crayton was a very effective receiver.

Look, Terrell Owens will probably have 150 passes thrown his way. Jason Witten will get another 100 to 120. Crayton will probably get 90 to 100 balls. The running backs and backup tight ends will get maybe 60 or so. That’s just over 400 attempts. How much will Dallas need another receiver?

Here’s another reason why I wonder if Dallas needs another receiver. I used the red/yellow/green system to rate the matchups each QB will face in ‘08, giving a zero every time a QB faces a red CB, one point for a yellow CB and two for a green one.

Tony Romo has the lowest matchup total for any QB entering 2008, meaning he faces the hardest schedule passing wise. When the Cowboys coaches look at their opponents I think they’ll rely on their running game more this season. Now, every other NFC East QB will also have a tough road, but Romo has the most difficult schedule, period.

BSR: How do you rate Dallas’ chances, given Romo’s matchup problems? 2007 came to a disappointing end but I never wavered from my belief that the ‘07 Cowboys were not going all the way. Their defense was not finished. I think they’re close enough to being complete this time. They didn’t match up against New England and could not match the Giants in producing a rush with four men.

Joyner: I think the Cowboys have an excellent chance. They have arguably the most talented team in the NFC, with San Diego being arguably the most talented team in the AFC.

BSR: Careful, K.C., you’re stealing my thunder. Dallas and San Diego meet in their first pre-season games and I see them squaring off again in the Super Bowl. Thanks again for joining us.

– K.C. Joyner will be featured in a BSR podcast later this week to answer more questions, promote “Scientific Football 2008,” his new cornerback tracking service and “Blindsided,” a new book which aims to puncture several football myths.  If you have a question for K.C., post it in the thread.

Adam Jones, CB Rankings and Ken Hamlin’s Best Position: K.C. Joyner Returns, Part I

The football scientist K.C. Joyner gave BSR an interview Friday, taking time from finishing Scientific Football 2008 to discuss Adam Jones, the Cowboys incumbent corners, whether Ken Hamlin should be moved to strong safety and other topics. Today, we focus on the defense.

BSR: Adam Jones has finally landed in the Cowboys’ secondary. There’s a lot of discussion on the site about his ability to recover from a year off. I don’t think it’s an issue. He was suspended for being a knucklead. He didn’t miss time for a major injury or behavior that damaged his body, like drug or alcohol abuse. Paul Hornung and Alex Karras missed a full year in ‘63 for gambling. Both played well after they returned and they were both 28 the year they sat. Jones was 24. I think his performance curve can actually improve.

Joyner: I agree. Physiologists and baseball analysts like Bill James say that your physical peak comes around age 27 or 28. Don’t forget that John Riggins also sat out a year and helped win a Super Bowl after he returned.

BSR: I saw a comment from an AFC pro personnel guy who said Jones has talent but was inconsistent while at Tennessee. How much can we expect him to add to the secondary this year?

Joyner: Remember, he’s replacing Jacques Reeves. Reeves had a 7.9 yards per attempt in ‘07. Now, a 7.0 YPA is about league average. Adam Jones had a 5.4 YPA in 2006 (which ranked 8th overall). Jones doesn’t have to equal that to be an improvement. Even if he’s a notch below his ‘06 play he’ll raise the secondary’s play.

As for being inconsistent, you don’t post a 5.4 YPA giving up a lot of big plays. He may have given up a decent throw here and there, but you can’t give up many and post a number like that.

BSR: How did the Cowboys’ regular corners rate?

Joyner: Anthony Henry had a 6.6 YPA. That’s in the top third. Terence Newman had a 6.2 YPA. That’s in the top 20. The Cowboys had a top ten secondary with Reeves starting 13 games. They should be as good or better with Jones.

[Note: Joyner didn't have his rankings handy, but he's on the mark. A 6.2 YPA ranked 15th in both the '05 and '06 CB ratings. A 6.6 YPA ranked 21st and 20th in those years. ]

BSR: There’s been a lot of speculation that the Cowboys will move to Anthony Henry to free safety and Ken Hamlin to strong safety, putting Roy Williams on the bench. Henry hinted at this when Jones got some reps at starting right corner in last week’s mini-camp. But Hamlin was very good at free safety last year. Would Dallas be messing with success to move him?

Joyner: Before Ken Hamlin the Cowboys were awful at free safety. [Note: Keith Davis and Pat Watkins had the worst pass coverage numbers for starting FSs in '05 and '06.]

I think Dallas might be creating one problem by trying to solve another one. I don’t have his stats but Hamlin was very, very good last year. If the Cowboys want to replace Roy Williams at strong safety, they should get another strong safety. Look, I don’t have any problems saying this on the record. I think Roy Williams is just one of those guys, like Randy Moss, who’s going to play his game, the game that he wants to play, no matter what.

BSR: Let’s look at the Dallas secondary in comparison to another top divisional unit. I’ve written a couple of pieces on the NFC and I have the Eagles as my bubble team; I’m putting them outside the playoffs but can see them in if they keep Lito Sheppard. How good can Philly’s secondary be if they keep him?

Joyner: Lito dropped off. He takes chances and has high YPAs but the Eagles put up with it because he made plays and got picks. He’s stopped doing that.

BSR: What did Asante Samuel post last year?

Joyner: He was 7.2. Good, but not great.

I think the Eagles suffered letting nickel back Rod Hood go. He posted a 6.6 YPA for Arizona, which is very respectable. They replaced him with William James, who had a YPA over 11.0 last year, which is one of the worst marks in the league.

– Come back Monday for Part II, where K.C. will discuss Tony Romo’s ‘07, the difficult matchups he faces in ‘08, Patrick Crayton’s value as a number two and whether rumored WR target Joe Horn has anything left.

Coming Attactions, Rock-Hard Performance Boosters and a Final Camp Pitch

– The NFL year is heading farther into the dead zone, with the coaches due to take their vacations before the camp grind begins. The team did release its camp schedule so we have a target. Workouts begin on July 25th, just four weeks from today.

We’re not slowing down here at BSR. I’m interviewing K.C. Joyner tonight and will publish his comments over the weekend. We’ll be talking about Adam Jones, the Cowboys secondary in general, T.O., possible second wideouts, Tony Romo and a host of other topics.

K.C. will also discuss Scientific Football 2008, which is about to be released, and a new cornerback tracking feature that his web site will feature this year. Check in for that.

We’re also going to talk about Cowboys fandom with the folks at Barry Switzer Ate My Hamster Too, better known as The Hamster, a U.K.-based Cowboys fanzine that’s been around since the mid ’90s. The lads will tell us what it’s like to root for the good team from almost half way around the globe. I wonder if they have any Page 3 girls for their fanzine? Hmmmm, I wonder if we can get some Page 3 girls for BSR!? (Page 3 Girls are a “feature” of The Sun, the biggest daily “red top” in England. Warning — may not be work safe.)

– They’re not just corking their bats any more — A few years ago, when Viagra was first introduced, an NBA official joked that “the league should test for a lot of drugs but if it really wants to scare the players, it should announce its testing for Viagra.”

Seems there might be something to that line. Sports officials now think the little blue pill might enhance on-field performance. The major sports leagues might just have to test for it after all — or put medicine jars full of them in every trainers room!

Viva Viagra indeed.

Finally — we’re in the home stretch of our fund drive. We’re at $1,835 now and are closing in on $2,000, which is the amount which would make it comfortable for me to cover all two initial weeks of camp. I’m closing the drive on Monday, so pitch in if you can and help us reach our goal.

A big thanks to the generous people who have already donated. We won’t let you down.

An Interview with K.C. Joyner, Part II

K.C Joyner returns with answers to questions about Terrell Owens, Chris Canty, Marcus Spears, Anthony Henry and Roy Williams.

5. BSR — Some readers have asked how T.O.’s suspension affected the Eagles’ passing game? How much will losing him hurt them?

K.C. — My take on the Eagles has always been that they believe in their passing system more than they believe in talent. Andy Reid has been successful for many years now with sub-par receiving talent, so there is evidence to back up that this works. As far as T.O. goes, his numbers were not that good last year. He had a poor success rate at every level. Some of this was probably due to Donovan McNabb’s poor accuracy after his week-1 injury. Eagles fans should probably worry more about McNabb coming back from the injury to his previous form than they should about the loss of T.O.

6. BSR – Can you say a little about the rookie DEs, Chris Canty and Marcus Spears?

K.C. — Canty had an excellent success rate, beating over 26% of his point of attack blocs, which ranked him 10th among DEs in that category. Spears didn’t do as well, beating only 14.1% of his POA blocks. Spears also gave up over 5 yards per POA run to Canty’s 4.0.

7. BSR — Can you put Anthony Henry’s season in context? He seemed to be playing very well before his groin injury. Where did he rate when he went down?

K.C. — the Cowboys’ opponents quickly figured out last year that Henry should be targeted over Terence Newman. In fact, the Chiefs, Chargers and Eagles all made Henry their primary target.

I haven’t split out his before/after injury numbers but I can tell you that Henry still had a 48.7% success rate for the entire season, which placed him 13th in the league in that category. He had a sub-par yards-per-attempt allowed, though, and much of his success came against short passes. I think Bill Parcells and company were more miffed at Henry’s inability to fight through the injury than they were with his performance.

8. BSR — Nobody gets more attention on this site than Roy Williams. His last minutes in the first Redskins loss earned him a bad reputation with national scribes. We started to see a lot of “Roy Williams is overrated” lines as the season went on. To my eyes he’s the same guy — he’s always had coverage issues, but is also a playmaker.

Was his ‘05 any worse than previous years and where would you rate him among league strong safeties?

K.C. — I’ll give you a quick excerpt from Scientific Football 2006 regarding Williams play last year,

“Roy Williams was the better of the two (Williams and Davis) when it came to run support and coverage. Williams had 11 run supports (a metric I go over in greater detail in the book) and probably would have ranked higher in that category had I not place the five-yard rule as a cutoff point for that metric.

No one expects Roy Williams to be great in coverage but the best measure of his coverage skills might be how he did against deep passes. Williams was solid on these passes, with a 70% success rate and a #14 ranking in the overall safety metric. Not great numbers, but not a bad tradeoff for the upside Williams gives the team against the run.”

Mind the Gap(s) — An Interview with K.C. Joyner, Part One

Scientific Football series author and ESPNet analyst K.C. Joyner continues his attempt to bring thorough, tape-based analysis to the world of football annuals. He’s taken time out from finishing Scientific Football 2006 to answer your questions. Today, in the first of four Q-&-A sessions, K.C. uses the book’s new run-blocking metrics to analyze Flozell Adams, Marco Rivera, the overall offensive line play and the 2005 Cowboys nose tackles.

1. The Blue and Silver Report – Many Cowboys fans view the 2005 offensive line as a failure. Did it perform poorly across the board or was it a case of three guys bailing but two huge holes letting water in?

K.C. Joyner — It was a case of the tackles being awful and the inside blockers being very good. Torrin Tucker had a terrible blocking percentage and Rob Petitti’s was one of the worst in the NFL. All the inside blockers (guards and centers) had 80%+ success rates. A 90% success rate is excellent and anything in the 80s is good.

2. BSR — Can you assess Flozell Adams’ run blocking before his injury?

K.C. — He didn’t get enough blocks to be listed as a qualifier. Based on the limited number of blocks he did have last year, he would have been pretty good but not great. His success rate was 90%, which is a great number, but his yards-per-attempt was only 4.0. If he can block at a 90% rate next year he’ll be a big upgrade over Tucker and I would expect the 4.0 YPA to increase.

3. BSR — Marco Rivera got a lot of grief for his 2005, being a big-ticket signing. Where did he fall in your ratings?

K.C. — His 82.4% success rate tied him for 22nd among guards, so that was a plus. He was in the lower 3rd of the league in YPA though, so it looks like a case where Rivera was able to get a block but the holes he created may not have been that big.

4. BSR — LaRoi Glover has left. Can you compare his play as a run stuffer to Jason Ferguson’s?

K.C. — Ferguson did a much better job vs. the run than Glover. I rank DTs by three criteria. The first is yards per attempt given up on runs to their point of attack. Glover allowed 5.4 yards per run, which ranked 79th among DTs. Ferguson gave up 4.3 yards, which isn’t great (tied for 51st among DTs) but it’s a heckuva lot better than Glover.

The second criterion I use is success percentage. This basically states how often the DT beat the blocker(s) on the play. Glover was horrible at this last year, beating a mere 7% of his blocks. Ferguson did much better, beating 20% of his blocks.

The last criterion is a combination of the first two. I multiply the yards-per-run by the success percentage. Glover’s total in that metric was 5.0 yards, while Ferguson’s was 3.4. It’s not a case of Ferguson being a great player but he is a lot better [against the run] than Glover.

To order a copy of Scientific Football 2006, go to: www.thefootballscientist.com.

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