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Keith Davis to Re-join Dallas — on Monday

Now, why would the Cowboys wait to sign Davis until then?

Are more deals in the works?

If no more moves are in play, it will be interesting to see whether they cut an offensive lineman or a defensive back. If they did the former, the Cowboys would have TWELVE d-backs on their roster.

This makes Davis the second coming of Elvis Patterson. He’s not much as a coverage safety, as today’s early story pointed out. He is a good special teams player, however, and the Cowboys could always use more of those.

Fun with SF ‘08 IV: How Ken Hamlin Got His Groove Back and Saved the Secondary

Longtime BSR readers know I’ve been using Scientific Football to bash the Cowboys’ inept free safety play under Bill Parcells. For whatever reason, the Tuna neglected the spot, trying to force a strong safety, Keith Davis, into the spot, and later trying to force feed rookie Pat Watkins into the position.

Both projects failed. Here’s a chart showing the free safety direct coverage play in ‘05 under Davis, ‘06 under Watkins, and last season under Ken Hamlin. (SF also tracks deep assists, where the safeties roll up in coverage to help corners.)

Player	Att.	Stops	Succ. %	Yards	YPA	Rank
Keith Davis ‘05	31	14	45.2	485	15.6	36th
Pat Watkins ‘06	11	4	36.4	227	20.6	36th
Ken Hamlin ‘07	22	13	59.1	107	4.9	*

After ‘05 and ‘06 it didn’t seem possible that the Cowboys’ free safety play could get any worse. Davis and Watkins ranked 36th among 36 safeties in their respective years. In other words, the Cowboys had the worst free safety play in the NFL during that time. Add in Roy Williams’ suspect coverage skills and Dallas had a gaping hole in its deep middle.

That’s not a good way to build a Super Bowl push. When Hamlin was signed in April ‘07 I wrote that regardless of whether the Cowboys got the mid-pack ‘06 Hamlin or the top-5 rated ‘05 Hamlin, they were due to improve.

Look at how much they improved. Joyner didn’t list the direct coverage stats for free safeties in this year’s book but only the late Sean Taylor produced a direct coverage YPA better than Hamlin’s. With Hamlin in the deep middle the one-play 70 yard TD pass drives Cowboys’ fans witnessed in ‘05 and ‘06 disappeared.

Hamlin’s yards allowed total is less than one quarter of what Davis allowed in ‘05. It’s less than half of Watkins’ ‘06 total. (And remember that Watkins was benched in mid-season, so his totals are only a fragment of the team total.)

If Dallas can keep its cornerbacks healthy, it can be a real force with Hamlin in the middle, no matter what type of year Roy Williams has at strong safety. Hamlin missed OTAs bargaining for a better contract but when you look at these numbers it’s hard to begrudge him one penny of his new deal.

Toast Redux? Miami Cuts Keith Davis

In the glory seasons of ‘92 and ‘93 Jimmy Johnson was so certain of his starting depth that he dedicated roster spots exclusively to marginal players who excelled on special teams. Most notable was Elvis Patterson, known at his previous stops as “Toast” because he was burned so often when he played in the secondary. Toast was a special teams demon, and he was teamed with Kenny Gant, Matt Vanderbeek and others to form an effective coverage unit.

The chance of a Toast deja vu arose today when Miami put Keith Davis and his Amazing Bullet-Attracting Technicolor Backside back on the market, releasing him just before the Dolphins left for Miami to play their pre-season finale.

My initial reaction is no. The Cowboys have seen more of the inconsistency that hurt the coverage teams last year. However, we need to remember that Davis was on the field when the special teams had their late season problems in ‘06 and in ‘07, with Bruce DeHaven and Bruce Read. It’s not as if the units were strong and collapsed when Davis left.

What’s more, the other guys on Dallas’ core special teams list — Kevin Burnett, Bobby Carpenter, Justin Rogers and Pat Watkins, are mostly seen as having the opportunity to become future starters, or at least fill in capably if the starters ahead of them are injured. Dallas knows Davis offers little value as a free safety. He had the worst coverage metrics of any starting safety when he started in the Parcells days.

He seemed miscast and backed up Roy Williams capably last year, but obtaining him likely means cutting somebody like Courtney Brown. Would you be willing to give up on his future for the possibility of short term gain with Davis back in a Cowboys uniform?

Discuss.

Adam Jones, CB Rankings and Ken Hamlin’s Best Position: K.C. Joyner Returns, Part I

The football scientist K.C. Joyner gave BSR an interview Friday, taking time from finishing Scientific Football 2008 to discuss Adam Jones, the Cowboys incumbent corners, whether Ken Hamlin should be moved to strong safety and other topics. Today, we focus on the defense.

BSR: Adam Jones has finally landed in the Cowboys’ secondary. There’s a lot of discussion on the site about his ability to recover from a year off. I don’t think it’s an issue. He was suspended for being a knucklead. He didn’t miss time for a major injury or behavior that damaged his body, like drug or alcohol abuse. Paul Hornung and Alex Karras missed a full year in ‘63 for gambling. Both played well after they returned and they were both 28 the year they sat. Jones was 24. I think his performance curve can actually improve.

Joyner: I agree. Physiologists and baseball analysts like Bill James say that your physical peak comes around age 27 or 28. Don’t forget that John Riggins also sat out a year and helped win a Super Bowl after he returned.

BSR: I saw a comment from an AFC pro personnel guy who said Jones has talent but was inconsistent while at Tennessee. How much can we expect him to add to the secondary this year?

Joyner: Remember, he’s replacing Jacques Reeves. Reeves had a 7.9 yards per attempt in ‘07. Now, a 7.0 YPA is about league average. Adam Jones had a 5.4 YPA in 2006 (which ranked 8th overall). Jones doesn’t have to equal that to be an improvement. Even if he’s a notch below his ‘06 play he’ll raise the secondary’s play.

As for being inconsistent, you don’t post a 5.4 YPA giving up a lot of big plays. He may have given up a decent throw here and there, but you can’t give up many and post a number like that.

BSR: How did the Cowboys’ regular corners rate?

Joyner: Anthony Henry had a 6.6 YPA. That’s in the top third. Terence Newman had a 6.2 YPA. That’s in the top 20. The Cowboys had a top ten secondary with Reeves starting 13 games. They should be as good or better with Jones.

[Note: Joyner didn't have his rankings handy, but he's on the mark. A 6.2 YPA ranked 15th in both the '05 and '06 CB ratings. A 6.6 YPA ranked 21st and 20th in those years. ]

BSR: There’s been a lot of speculation that the Cowboys will move to Anthony Henry to free safety and Ken Hamlin to strong safety, putting Roy Williams on the bench. Henry hinted at this when Jones got some reps at starting right corner in last week’s mini-camp. But Hamlin was very good at free safety last year. Would Dallas be messing with success to move him?

Joyner: Before Ken Hamlin the Cowboys were awful at free safety. [Note: Keith Davis and Pat Watkins had the worst pass coverage numbers for starting FSs in '05 and '06.]

I think Dallas might be creating one problem by trying to solve another one. I don’t have his stats but Hamlin was very, very good last year. If the Cowboys want to replace Roy Williams at strong safety, they should get another strong safety. Look, I don’t have any problems saying this on the record. I think Roy Williams is just one of those guys, like Randy Moss, who’s going to play his game, the game that he wants to play, no matter what.

BSR: Let’s look at the Dallas secondary in comparison to another top divisional unit. I’ve written a couple of pieces on the NFC and I have the Eagles as my bubble team; I’m putting them outside the playoffs but can see them in if they keep Lito Sheppard. How good can Philly’s secondary be if they keep him?

Joyner: Lito dropped off. He takes chances and has high YPAs but the Eagles put up with it because he made plays and got picks. He’s stopped doing that.

BSR: What did Asante Samuel post last year?

Joyner: He was 7.2. Good, but not great.

I think the Eagles suffered letting nickel back Rod Hood go. He posted a 6.6 YPA for Arizona, which is very respectable. They replaced him with William James, who had a YPA over 11.0 last year, which is one of the worst marks in the league.

– Come back Monday for Part II, where K.C. will discuss Tony Romo’s ‘07, the difficult matchups he faces in ‘08, Patrick Crayton’s value as a number two and whether rumored WR target Joe Horn has anything left.

An Interview With K.C. Joyner, Part III

K.C. Joyner has completed Scientific Football 2006. Today he provides an extended excerpt from his SF 2006 Cowboys introduction, plus answers to questions on Terence Newman, Drew Bledsoe and the free safety position.

The Dallas Cowboys were the toughest team to play in the NFL last year. I don’t mean they were the toughtest team physically (although they may have been). I mean that the ‘Boys were mentally taxing to play.

Arizona found this out in week 8. The Cardinals had already played the Giants, Seahawks and Panthers, so they had been physically tested, but they came through those games with their mental toughness intact. After playing Dallas, however, the Cardinals admitted they were dominated and manhandled by a tougher team. It was so bad that Arizona benched their quarterback and a number of their offensive linemen and blockers after the game.

Detroit also found out how tough playing Dallas can be. The Lioins had earlier battles with tough teams, including a hard-hitting Baltimore squad that tried to intimidate the Lions but came up short. Dallas overpowered the Lions so badly that the Silver and Blue gave up on their head coach during the game.

It wasn’t just the cellar-dwellers who said this. Trent Green of the Chiefs said that he held onto the loss to the Cowboys a bit longer than he would usually hang onto a loss. In addition, the Chiefs defense was so worn out after the game they could barely muster the effort to tackle Tiki Barber the next week. That game wasn’t a physical domination by Dallas, but it was additional evidence that no team was going to come out of a game versus the Cowboys without having their psyche tested.

– Dallas Cowboys team summary, Scientific Football 2006

9. Blue and Silver Report – Terence Newman played better in ‘05 than in ‘04. There are some fans who think he’s ready for stardom and others who think he’s money already. Can he — is he — playing at a top level already? We ask in part because he’s getting a split decision from the national media. Sports Illustrated’s Paul Zimmerman named Newman as one of his All Pros last year but other scribes remember his whiff against Chris Cooley in the second Redskins game and beat his ratings up over that.

K.C. Joyner — I have to agree with Dr. Z on this one. A part of my take on Newman from SF 2006: “Newman placed in the top 12 in all of the major cornerback metric categories in the medium and deep pass levels and his short pass metrics were also good. He was possibly the most consistent cornerback in the NFL last year.”

10. BSR — How much would a good free safety help the Dallas secondary and did they bring anybody on board who can fill the need?

K.C. — I would like to be able to tell you that the acquisition of Marcus Coleman is going to help, but I don’t think it will. Coleman has had coverage issues the past two years. He ranked near dead last in coverage metrics for free safeties last year. He was so bad that the Texans ended up moving a strong safety over to free safety to take Coleman’s place.

If Coleman isn’t the answer and last year proved that [Keith] Davis isn’t the answer, then the Cowboys may end up having to go with Pat Watkins. I don’t do college metrics but I happen to follow FSU football very closely. Watkins is a hitter and a ballhawk. He may not be the best in coverage but if he can assimilate himself into [Mike] Zimmer’s defensive schemes quickly, he may be the best option they have.

11. BSR — Drew Bledsoe had an up-and-down season, peaking with a 98 QB rating at mid-season then dropping as the season progressed. How much of this was due to his o-line’s problems and how much was due to his own foibles?

K.C. — The metrics say that the o-line affected Bledsoe as much on his accuracy as it did anything else. Bledsoe had very good bad-decision numbers (he was 4th in bad decision percentage and 11th in weighted bad-decision percentage) but he was 31st overall in pass accuracy.

12. BSR — You mentioned in the ‘05 book that Bledsoe could still perform at a high level if he was used properly and given more of the throws he made well. Did Dallas game plan better for him than Buffalo had his last two seasons there?

K.C. – It’s just my opinion but yes, I do think that Dallas used Bledsoe better than Buffalo did. Bledsoe ranked 12th among all QBs in yards per attempt, which is better than his ‘05 numbers. His bad decision percentages were much lower, nearly 1/2 what they were in 2004. That he did this behind a line that was falling apart by year’s end says a lot for what Dallas was able to do for and with him.

To order a copy of Scientific Football 2006, visit www.thefootballscientist.com. You can read a 37-page excerpt from this year’s book there.

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