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It’s Adjustment Time

Pro football is a game of adjustment and adaptation.  You create an edge for your team and opponents respond.  If you’re a winner, you acknowledge their changes and make your own.

We’re one quarter of the way through the season and it’s time for the Cowboys to adapt.  On offense, they had strategies that worked very effectively against the Browns and Eagles but not as well against the Packers and Redskins.

Let’s go back to the Green Bay game.  The Cowboys had one pick in the red zone when Tony Romo tried a pass to a very well covered Jason Witten. Later, just before halftime, the Cowboys were in second and goal when they lined up in a shotgun formation, with Marion Barber to Romo’s right.  Dallas faked a draw to Barber and attempted a pass to T.O. running a post. This play had worked twice for touchdowns last year, most notably against New England, when the play fake sent Rodney Harrison into a conniption fit.

One problem.  One big problem.  Green Bay knew it was coming, and had both of Romo’s receiving targets double covered.  The play went for a huge loss.

The Eagles, in the second half of their game, went double on T.O. putting a corner tight on him and a safety behind him.  Green Bay did this with Charles Woodson.  Washington did this with Shawn Springs.  It hasn’t completely slowed Owens down, but it has slowed his production down from his first outstanding six quarters of the year.

This isn’t a call to panic.  Michael Irvin faced this type of attention regularly the last few years of his career.  But it’s clear that the better defenses have caught up to some of Dallas’ tendencies.  And it’s time to see how Jason Garrett adjusts.

On defense, better strong safety play is needed.  It’s funny, two years ago Dallas had no free safety.  Then Ken Hamlin was signed and closed the deep middle.  Now, however, Pat Watkins is looking confused.  Courtney Brown is playing some at the strong but has yet to distinguish himself.

It’s almost enough to make you miss Roy Williams.  Almost.

We haven’t talked ‘09 draft, and we always talk draft here.  Mark it down — Day one next April will target two offensive linemen and a strong safety.

It’s Hard to be Humble

This has been a trend going back the the old site in the mid ’90s, but I don’t know if I’ve ever shared it with you.

Traffic goes way down on the days after a Cowboys loss.  Yesterday’s traffic was only two thirds of what we normally get on a Monday.  But most Mondays, our biggest days, people are looking for affirmation of how great their team is.

Yesterday?  Not so many people looking for confirmation that their team played poorly.

Fun with SF ‘08 IV: How Ken Hamlin Got His Groove Back and Saved the Secondary

Longtime BSR readers know I’ve been using Scientific Football to bash the Cowboys’ inept free safety play under Bill Parcells. For whatever reason, the Tuna neglected the spot, trying to force a strong safety, Keith Davis, into the spot, and later trying to force feed rookie Pat Watkins into the position.

Both projects failed. Here’s a chart showing the free safety direct coverage play in ‘05 under Davis, ‘06 under Watkins, and last season under Ken Hamlin. (SF also tracks deep assists, where the safeties roll up in coverage to help corners.)

Player	Att.	Stops	Succ. %	Yards	YPA	Rank
Keith Davis ‘05	31	14	45.2	485	15.6	36th
Pat Watkins ‘06	11	4	36.4	227	20.6	36th
Ken Hamlin ‘07	22	13	59.1	107	4.9	*

After ‘05 and ‘06 it didn’t seem possible that the Cowboys’ free safety play could get any worse. Davis and Watkins ranked 36th among 36 safeties in their respective years. In other words, the Cowboys had the worst free safety play in the NFL during that time. Add in Roy Williams’ suspect coverage skills and Dallas had a gaping hole in its deep middle.

That’s not a good way to build a Super Bowl push. When Hamlin was signed in April ‘07 I wrote that regardless of whether the Cowboys got the mid-pack ‘06 Hamlin or the top-5 rated ‘05 Hamlin, they were due to improve.

Look at how much they improved. Joyner didn’t list the direct coverage stats for free safeties in this year’s book but only the late Sean Taylor produced a direct coverage YPA better than Hamlin’s. With Hamlin in the deep middle the one-play 70 yard TD pass drives Cowboys’ fans witnessed in ‘05 and ‘06 disappeared.

Hamlin’s yards allowed total is less than one quarter of what Davis allowed in ‘05. It’s less than half of Watkins’ ‘06 total. (And remember that Watkins was benched in mid-season, so his totals are only a fragment of the team total.)

If Dallas can keep its cornerbacks healthy, it can be a real force with Hamlin in the middle, no matter what type of year Roy Williams has at strong safety. Hamlin missed OTAs bargaining for a better contract but when you look at these numbers it’s hard to begrudge him one penny of his new deal.

The Sports Doctors — 07/31/08

Welcome to the July 31^st thread for The Sports Doctors, streamed live from KSOX, ESPN Radio 1240.

Once again, the Doctors will be in at 6 pm ET, 5 pm CT. We’ll go over today’s practice and and have an in-depth discussion about the Cowboys’ secondary. We’ll also have comments from Dave Campo, Terence Newman, Anthony Henry and Ken Hamlin.

And, as always, we’ll take your calls at 888-806-1661.

If you do not feel like calling in, post your questions on this thread. Just post your Name and Town (and country, if not in the United States) and we’ll try to answer them on the air.

To listen live, click on one of the links to the right. If all goes well, we’ll have a replay after the show.

Camp Cowboys: Compare and Contrast, ‘07 vs. ‘08

It’s hard to get a definite read on anything after three days of camp. Hudson Houck laughed when I asked him on Saturday what, if anything he could tell me after one day in pads? “That I still have 22 practices to go,” was his reply.

Still, Cowboys fans hate deferred gratification. Especially after 12 years without a playoff victory. With that in mind, I went back one year to see where the team was at the same stage in their Phillips Over San Antonio ‘07 Tour. This year’s tour is already looking much better. Consider:

– At quarterback, Tony Romo was looking sharp but everybody was wondering if his dropped ball in Seattle would harm his development. Now, he’s trying to stay out of the tabloids. Call this one a wash.

– At running back, Dallas was staying with the status quo, starting Julius Jones and rotating Marion Barber into the lineup. This year, the unit looks faster and deeper. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice have not played pro games yet, but I can already say with confidence that Felix will be a better receiver than Julius and I’ll take Choice already over Tyson Thompson. Score: plus one for the ‘08 squad.

– On the offensive line, the Cowboys were waiting for starters Flozell Adams and Marc Columbo to return from knee scopes. Jim Molinaro and Pat McQuistan were manning the tackle spots. This year, McQuistan is at right tackle and second year man Doug Free is at the left tackle spot. The starting lineup looks set. Score: plus one for the ‘08 squad, based on health and continuity.

– At wide receiver, Terry Glenn was about to drop off the roster with a knee injury, not to return until January. Isaiah Stanback was in a walking boot. This year, Glenn is gone again, perhaps for good. Stanback is playing, though he’s still far from polished. Sam Hurd looks better, but if he’s not displacing Patrick Crayton, he’s risen to his level. That’s a step down from ‘06, when T.O., Glenn and Crayton were the trio, but a minor step up from last year, when Hurd was an unknown. Score: a wash

– At tight end, Jason Witten was a sure thing and Anthony Fasano was the clear backup. Tony Curtis was a promising backup. This year, Curtis is the number two. Martellus Bennett has replaced Fasano, who’s now a Dolphin. He’s a big, talented player, but nobody knows how Bennett will play this year. Score: minus one, because of inexperience.

– On the defensive line, Jason Hatcher’s promising start was wiped out by a hamstring injury. Jason Ferguson was the starting nose tackle. Chris Canty and Marcus Spears were eager to wipe out underachiever labels. This year, Canty and Jay Ratliff are set at RE and NT, after stepping up their respective games last year. Tank Johnson replaces the departed Ferguson. He shows some explosion in drills, but I’ll wait until I see him in some real games before I rate him against Ferguson. Score: plus one for ‘08, because there is far less uncertainty this year.

– At linebacker in ‘07 it was Demarcus Ware and a lot of questions. Greg Ellis was rehabbing a torn Achilles and was grumpy about his contract. Anthony Spencer was an unknown rookie. Inside, Bradie James was claiming his poor ‘06 was due to playing overweight in Bill Parcells’ scheme. Kevin Burnett was an injury prone enigma and Bobby Carpenter had the eau de bust about him.

This year, many experts are touting the Cowboys’ LB corps as the league’s best. Ware and Ellis both had double digit sacks last year. Spencer looked good in a backup role. James bounced back with a steady season. Burnett found a home in the nickel, where he excelled in coverage. And the Cowboys added Zack Thomas to replace Ayodele, who’s also joined Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami. Score: plus one for the ‘08 guys.

– In the secondary, the Cowboys were hoping for better health and play at several positions. Anthony Henry was trying to come back from a knee injury that hobbled him in ‘06. Terence Newman was days away from a plantar fascia tear. Ken Hamlin was a low budget signing from Seattle but hardly a sure thing. He had a so-so ‘06 after missing ten games in ‘05 with a severe head injury. It was far from clear if he could regain his outstanding ‘04 form. One year ago, Roy Williams was the surest bet in the secondary.

Today, he’s the most maligned. Hamlin earned his first Pro Bowl berth in ‘07. Newman overcame his heel injury and earned his first trip to Honolulu. Henry was leading the league in picks when he suffered a high ankle sprain that cost him six starts.

In addition, the Cowboys have Adam Jones and first rounder Mike Jenkins replacing Jacques Reeves and Nate Jones. Score: plus two for the ‘08 team, based on better health, and much greater depth.

Overall, the ‘08 team looks much deeper and has far fewer question marks than Wade 1.0. The injury questions at offensive tackle, outside linebacker and cornerback are gone. You could pencil in the entire starting 22 for Dallas today, where you could not do so for several positions last year.

It’s far too early to hit the giddy button, but there’s clearly far less reason to even consider locating the panic button this time around. Let’s hope things stay this way.

The Free Doesn’t Come Cheap: Hamlin Re-Signs for 6 years, $39 M

ESPN is reporting that free safety Ken Hamlin has signed a six-year, $39 million deal with the Cowboys. The contract has a $9 million signing bonus and $15 million in guaranteed money.

Source: The Questions Are On Offense

I talked to a source who broke down the issues facing the team less than a month before training camp. Although the offense ranked 2nd overall in points, averaging just more than four touchdowns per game, I was told the organization sees its biggest questions on the offensive side of the ball. Some key points:

BSR: What are the biggest concerns on each side of the ball?

– The defense looks solid. I think the secondary looks strong, the linebackers look strong and the line looks solid. In the secondary, Terence Newman is solid, Adam Jones is solid. I think Anthony Henry didn’t look like he was 100% in the mini-camps, but he should be fine.

I think one of the rookie corners will be in the mix, though I’m not sure if it will be the one [Mike Jenkins] or the five [Orlando Scandrick]. One will be in the lineup this year and the other will be inactive. We won’t really know until they put on the pads at Oxnard.

I’ll add that I think the secondary will be improved with Dave Campo running that unit. They appeared to be better fundamentally. Nothing against the last coach [Todd Bowles] but I think Campo is an exceptional teacher and the guys know he’s got their backs.

BSR: So you don’t see an overhaul positon wise? I’m of the belief that they’ll stick with Ken Hamlin at the free and limit Roy Williams’ reps, getting him off the field when they’re in nickel and dime sets.

– Absolutely. Teams find guys like that. I also think the team is playing Hamlin right. Make him do it more than one year. If he plays well again, then you think about something long term.

BSR: What about the offensive side of the ball? Where are the weak links there?

– There are a few questions there. I think the team wants to get a better sense of its offensive line depth. They have Pat McQuistan going into his third year and Doug Free entering his second year and they moved James Marten to guard. They’ll give their starters some time but you may see the young guys going two and three quarters in some games so the team can get a really good look at them against top competition.

I also have some questions about backup quarterback. Brad Johnson is a smart guy but when he’s in there the ball goes sideways a lot. I think he’s here for 2008 but I’m sure the team has an eye out for another prospect beyond this year. 95% of the teams in this league are cooked if they lose their starting QB but if Tony Romo missed any significant time I think the Cowboys are an 8-8 team without him.

Without question, the biggest issue is at wide receiver. The team isn’t panicking yet, but I do think they have some worries about the #2 position. The offense stopped scoring touchdowns when Terrell Owens got hurt last year. Patrick Crayton is okay but he’s more of a #3 than a #2.

The team was looking for a young receiver before who could become a number one and could not find a fit.

I think they might need a little luck to fill that this year. It gets harder to fill holes once camp begins.

BSR: I know the Tom Landry Cowboys often filled holes with trades for veteran receivers. Lance Alworth, Billy Parks, guys like that. Might Dallas look at a veteran who’s dependable, in the way Keenan McCardell was for the Chargers a few years ago? And does this explain the Joe Horn rumors?

– My understanding is that Horn’s agent was given permission to shop him. The Cowboys have not called Atlanta.

BSR: So this is likely his agent trying to drum up interest?

– Yes, but if you asked me would I take Terry Glenn with nicks or Joe Horn, I’d take Glenn.

BSR: If the team can’t fill this need via trade, does this mean they’ll turn more to a guy like Felix Jones as a receiver?

– I think Jason Garrett is a guy who wants to open things up and get the ball down the field. I think one of the bigger questions is: how fast can Felix Jones learn what’s going on? He has to be a blocker, a catcher and a runner.

He’s got the potential to be a matchup problem, because he’s an explosive player, and because Dallas has T.O. and Jason Witten and Marion Barber, who can play every down, and they’re legitimate weapons, so defense can’t just lock in on him. But they will if he’s not clear on his responsibilities. It’s going to be interesting to track him in the one-on-one drills in camp, to see how he does against linebackers. Will they rag doll him, or will be be able to stay square and hold his ground?

If he doesn’t picks things up fast enough he’s Reggie Bush, a guy you draw up special plays for. And he has to be better than that. If all he can do is run special plays just for him, defenses will clue in very quickly that he’s in the game to get the ball.

Adam Jones, CB Rankings and Ken Hamlin’s Best Position: K.C. Joyner Returns, Part I

The football scientist K.C. Joyner gave BSR an interview Friday, taking time from finishing Scientific Football 2008 to discuss Adam Jones, the Cowboys incumbent corners, whether Ken Hamlin should be moved to strong safety and other topics. Today, we focus on the defense.

BSR: Adam Jones has finally landed in the Cowboys’ secondary. There’s a lot of discussion on the site about his ability to recover from a year off. I don’t think it’s an issue. He was suspended for being a knucklead. He didn’t miss time for a major injury or behavior that damaged his body, like drug or alcohol abuse. Paul Hornung and Alex Karras missed a full year in ‘63 for gambling. Both played well after they returned and they were both 28 the year they sat. Jones was 24. I think his performance curve can actually improve.

Joyner: I agree. Physiologists and baseball analysts like Bill James say that your physical peak comes around age 27 or 28. Don’t forget that John Riggins also sat out a year and helped win a Super Bowl after he returned.

BSR: I saw a comment from an AFC pro personnel guy who said Jones has talent but was inconsistent while at Tennessee. How much can we expect him to add to the secondary this year?

Joyner: Remember, he’s replacing Jacques Reeves. Reeves had a 7.9 yards per attempt in ‘07. Now, a 7.0 YPA is about league average. Adam Jones had a 5.4 YPA in 2006 (which ranked 8th overall). Jones doesn’t have to equal that to be an improvement. Even if he’s a notch below his ‘06 play he’ll raise the secondary’s play.

As for being inconsistent, you don’t post a 5.4 YPA giving up a lot of big plays. He may have given up a decent throw here and there, but you can’t give up many and post a number like that.

BSR: How did the Cowboys’ regular corners rate?

Joyner: Anthony Henry had a 6.6 YPA. That’s in the top third. Terence Newman had a 6.2 YPA. That’s in the top 20. The Cowboys had a top ten secondary with Reeves starting 13 games. They should be as good or better with Jones.

[Note: Joyner didn't have his rankings handy, but he's on the mark. A 6.2 YPA ranked 15th in both the '05 and '06 CB ratings. A 6.6 YPA ranked 21st and 20th in those years. ]

BSR: There’s been a lot of speculation that the Cowboys will move to Anthony Henry to free safety and Ken Hamlin to strong safety, putting Roy Williams on the bench. Henry hinted at this when Jones got some reps at starting right corner in last week’s mini-camp. But Hamlin was very good at free safety last year. Would Dallas be messing with success to move him?

Joyner: Before Ken Hamlin the Cowboys were awful at free safety. [Note: Keith Davis and Pat Watkins had the worst pass coverage numbers for starting FSs in '05 and '06.]

I think Dallas might be creating one problem by trying to solve another one. I don’t have his stats but Hamlin was very, very good last year. If the Cowboys want to replace Roy Williams at strong safety, they should get another strong safety. Look, I don’t have any problems saying this on the record. I think Roy Williams is just one of those guys, like Randy Moss, who’s going to play his game, the game that he wants to play, no matter what.

BSR: Let’s look at the Dallas secondary in comparison to another top divisional unit. I’ve written a couple of pieces on the NFC and I have the Eagles as my bubble team; I’m putting them outside the playoffs but can see them in if they keep Lito Sheppard. How good can Philly’s secondary be if they keep him?

Joyner: Lito dropped off. He takes chances and has high YPAs but the Eagles put up with it because he made plays and got picks. He’s stopped doing that.

BSR: What did Asante Samuel post last year?

Joyner: He was 7.2. Good, but not great.

I think the Eagles suffered letting nickel back Rod Hood go. He posted a 6.6 YPA for Arizona, which is very respectable. They replaced him with William James, who had a YPA over 11.0 last year, which is one of the worst marks in the league.

– Come back Monday for Part II, where K.C. will discuss Tony Romo’s ‘07, the difficult matchups he faces in ‘08, Patrick Crayton’s value as a number two and whether rumored WR target Joe Horn has anything left.

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