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Who Are the Best Cover Corners — 3 Year Averages

July 11, 2008

In part two of the series using K.C. Joyner’s YPA metrics for cornerbacks, I look at the best three year averages for cornerbacks who qualified for ratings in any of the Scientific Football Annuals from 2004 through 2007.

The pool expanded when the threshold was lowered from four to three years. 39 CBs qualified for rankings in the first instance and 64 in this group. Many of the names carry over from the first list, though there are some surprises.

Player-team YPA Avg.
1T. Shawn Springs - Washington 6.0
1T. Deshea Townsend - Pittsburgh 6.0
4T. Ken Lucas - Carolina 6.1
4T. Rod Hood - Arizona 6.1
5. Terence Newman - Dallas 6.3
6. Leigh Bodden - Detroit 6.4
10T. Champ Bailey - Denver 6.5
10T. Fred Smoot - Washington 6.5
10T. Quentin Jammer - San Diego 6.5
10T. Charles Woodson - Green Bay 6.5

Some of the usual suspects are here. Shawn Springs, Deshea Townsend, Ken Lucas, Terence Newman, Quentin Jammer, Fred Smoot and Charles Woodson carry over from the first list.

The must-discussed Champ Bailey shows up, with the more recent weighting increasing the value of his All-World 2006 season.

Who, however, are Rod Hood and Leigh Bodden? Hood was Philly’s nickel back, putting up standout numbers his last two years with the Eagles. They let him go and the Cards are happy to have him. His ‘07 YPA and his three year averages are better than any put up by the better known and much better paid Eagles trio of Sheldon Brown, Lito Sheppard and Asante Samuel.

Bodden may be a guy who helps Matt Millen hang on another year. He had stellar ‘05 and ‘06 YPAs for Cleveland. His average dropped a bit in ‘07 but his picks jumped to six. The Lions snapped him up in free agency and may have gotten a value signing.

Just missing the list: Charles Tillman of Chicago with a 6.6 average YPA and Oakland’s Nnamdi Asomugha, with a 6.7.

Next: Are YPAs like SATs?

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under NFL | 17 Comments 

Who Is the Best Cover Corner?

July 7, 2008

This is the first in a series of pieces on the top cover cornerbacks and secondaries.

Who is the best NFL cover corner? Who has the best coverage unit around? The question is being kicked around a lot these days, with cornerbacks getting free agent contracts that rival those of quarterbacks for sheer dollars and bonuses.

I’ve come across several lists in recent weeks, all going off reputations, some earned, some not. BSR has decided to pursue these questions with the use of the largest database of corner coverage stats around. K.C. Joyner, the author of the Scientific Football books, will soon release Scientific Football 2008, the fourth edition of his series.

Joyner’s forte is breaking down the passing game, from offensive and defensive perspectives. His CB YPA will shortly become, in my opinion, shorthand for measuring a corner’s skills, in the same way that OPS has become the one stat that can best convey a baseball hitter’s skills. It’s easy to calculate and easy to understand. It shows how many yards a corner surrendered on average every time a pass was thrown to his man.

K.C. prints out a YPA ranking every year and in this year’s book has ranked the teams by tandem, calculating the average YPAs for the starting CB duos on each team.

What he has not yet done is compile YPAs over a longer span, say the last three or four years. When he learned I was putting such a spreadsheet together, he kindly forwarded his 2007 YPA rankings, which will not be published for several more weeks, and gave me permission to publish pieces from my calculated averages. BSR readers will therefore be the first to see these numbers. If you are not a regular Joyner reader, I highly recommend his ESPN columns and his books which can be ordered here.

The spread sheet raised as many questions as it answered. Although I have four years of data at my disposal, is it fair to omit a cornerback who has only played two or three years, but at a high level? What about a player who has missed a year due to injury?

In addition, what about players who have solid numbers but show a steady decline. Should I rate them above or below a player who has a similar number but whose averages are improving?

For now, I’ve decided to offer these breakdowns as a starting point for discussion, not as the last word in the debate over which players are best and which units are best. I’m going to offer two individual lists, one showing the best cornerbacks for the last four years and one for the last three years. The reason I’m pushing the data to be comprehensive is the generally inconsistent level of CB play from one year to the next.

It’s fairly routine to see a corner, even a good one, have two stellar years, then drop off a year and then bounce back strong again. For examples, look at the lines for Deshea Townsend and Ronde Barber on the top ten list below.

I’m sure there are many factors for a dropoff. A corner might be playing hurt. He may lose his confidence for a stretch of the season or an entire campaign. His pass rush might be weaker one given year. Whatever the case, there are not many corners in my sample who strung four strong years together. Even the better ones had a so-so year somewhere in the mix.

That said, I believe that a player must display consistency in order to be considered tops at his position. So my first list will, with one exception, include only those players who have posted numbers for the last four years.

Player-team 2004 2005 2006 2007 YPA Avg.
1. Springs - Washington
 4.2 5.5 6.2 6.2 5.5
2. Newman - Dallas
 5.8 5.8 7.1 6.1 6.2
4T. Townsend - Pittsburgh
 7.1 5.1 7.8 5.2 6.3
4T. Barber - Tampa Bay
 5.7 6.7 7.9 4.9 6.3
6T. Woodson - Green Bay
 7.0 * 5.3 7.2 6.5
6T. Lucas - Carolina 7.9 5.8 5.2 7.2 6.5
7. O’Neal - Cincinnati
 5.8 6.6 6.8 7.0 6.6
8. Smoot - Washington
 7.6 7.2 6.9 5.5 6.8
10T. Jammer - San Diego 7.8 7.5 6.2 5.9 6.9
10T. Asomugha - Oakland
 7.5 6.3 6.9 7.0 6.9

(*Charles Woodson did not get a rating in ‘05 because he was playing a rover position in Oakland’s system and did not qualify for the CB ratings.)

Some observations:

– The cornerback positon is incredibly unstable. You don’t think of corner as an attrition position, like running back, but there are only 40 players who had qualifying numbers each of the last four years. That’s just 1.25 per team. This is why cornerbacks who hit the open market make so much money. The demand for solid corners does not come close to meeting demand.

– Raise your hand if you considered Shawn Springs one of the top five corners in the game. I considered him for my top-of-my-head top ten, but he’s been the best YPA guy in the league the past four years.

– Raise both hands if you had Deshea Townsend in your top 20.

– There’s Terence Newman, Cowboys’ fans, parked at #2. His highest ranking in any given year has been 8th, but as you can see he’s been Mr. Steady. His 6.1 last year is even more impressive given his heel injury.

– In the what might have been category, check out Ken Lucas at 6th. The year he hit free agency he was rated higher by the Dallas scouting staff than Anthony Henry. Bill Parcells took the recommendation of Todd Bowles, who had coached Henry in Cleveland and who is now with the Tuna in Miami. Had Parcells pursued Lucas instead — Lucas did cost more — he might still be coaching.

– Notice the big names not on this list: Champ Bailey, Chris McAlister, Nate Clements, Asante Samuel? Inconsistency put them down the list. Bailey had one of the best years Joyner has ever recorded in ‘06, but it’s his only exceptional year the last four. He ranked in the bottom half in ‘04 and ‘05.

– Lastly, YPA tells us a lot, but don’t rush to judgments on guys who are on the list or are not. One fact that nags at me is that gambling, CBs, who Joyner calls “ball-hawks,” often have higher YPAs. Antonio Cromartie, for example, only had a 7.2 YPA last year, which is about league average. Guys like this will give up more intermediate and big throws in exchange for more picks. Conversely, CBs in cover two systems tend to have lower YPAs than they do when they play in more aggresive systems. Should we take the YPAs straight or weight them somewhat depending on a player’s personal style and scheme?

I’ll repeat, take this chart as a point of departure. Discuss.

Next: The top 10 CBs by YPA for the last three years.

Programming Note: I, like our Vice President, will be spending the next few days in an “undisclosed location.” I don’t know if his getaways involve a comely blonde, but mine will. I’ll see you folks again oh, Thursday.

Maybe.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under NFL, Players | 95 Comments 

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