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T.O. Scares Everybody

September 17, 2008

In the early days of training camp, I mentioned that the workouts could be summarized with the phrase, “T.O. Beats Everybody.”  No player had a better, more productive camp than the man whose middle name is Eldorado.

The Caddy made Philadelphia’s ballyhooed corners look like refurbished Hyundais in the first half Monday night.  He not only beat Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard, he humiliated them.  Owens didn’t catch a pass in the second half, but his early level of dominance changed Philly’s second half game plan, and aided Dallas’ comeback.

Jim Johnson’s initial strategy was to blitz Tony Romo with some frequency.  On Romo’s 14 first half attempts, the Eagles blitzed five or more men on 6 plays, or 43% of the time.  The Eagles rushed four men on the remaining 8 plays.

The Eagles initially tried playing Owens with a single corner, but neither Brown nor Sheppard could stay wtih him.  He ran Brown off on a 14 yard curl route, then left both Sheppard and safety Sean Considine more than five yards in his wake on a 72 yard bomb.

Johnson showed some brass putting FS Brian Dawkins one-on-one against Owens in the second quarter. T.O. looked insulted after he easily beat Dawkins on a 4 yard slant for a touchdown.

The play that probably changed Johnson’s thinking came on Dallas’ next series.  The Cowboys had run the ball on every one of its first seven 1st-down plays and the Eagles had stuffed Marion Barber, walking eight and sometimes nine men into the box.   Romo’s 4 yarder to T.O. had caught them off guard, and probably explains why Dawkins was left alone against Owens — the Eagles were expecting another run.

Now, facing 1st and ten on his 20, Jason Garrett called his second 1st-down pass, sending Owens on a stop and go at Brown.  T.O. was again more than five yards behind the corner when he caught the ball, which he took 55 yards to the Eagles’ 25.  The play was called back by a holding penalty, but it affected the remainder of the game.

Johnson had to give the corners covering Owens deep help.  When the second half started the Eagles began playing a lot of cover two, with a safety always rotating to Owens’ side.  This meant the Eagles now were playing with seven in the box, and Marion Barber began to find running room.  He had only 14 first half yards on six carries, and he topped that on his first 2nd-half carry, a bend play around right end for 18 yards.  He gained 49 second half yards on 12 carries, a far more respectable 4.1 average.

Cover two also compromised Philly’s rush.  Thirteen of the Eagles first fourteen second-half pass calls rushed four men, a meager 7% average. The Cowboys’ line handled these rushes with relative ease, giving Romo time to work his backs and tight ends in the middle of the field against Philly linebackers.  When the Eagles went to man coverage, they still tracked T.O. with two players.  Owens cleared out the right side of the Eagles defense on a third quarter play from the Philly 17, giving Barber the space to catch a touchdown against the overmatched MLB Stewart Bradley.

That’s Why They Pay Him the Big Money

Amazingly, Garrett had the perfect play for the one time in that 14-pass sequence where Johnson blitzed.  He called a screen to Barber on a 1st down play where Johnson rushed six men.  Barber followed three blockers along the far sideline for 25 yards.  Johnson again backed off; he would blitz just twice more in the game.

In a fitting end to his evening, Owens beat the new Eagle Asante Samuel, drawing an interference call in the end zone that set up Barber’s game winning run.  T.O. left the field knowing he had gotten the better of all three Philly corners.

Owens appears to have found a 6th gear at age 34, one that makes good cornerbacks look stupid.  He not only beats everybody, he flat-out scares everybody, top-tier coordinators included.

Note: Updated offensive stats will be posted later today.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under Wrapup | 39 Comments 

Who Are the Best Cover Corners — 3 Year Averages

July 11, 2008

In part two of the series using K.C. Joyner’s YPA metrics for cornerbacks, I look at the best three year averages for cornerbacks who qualified for ratings in any of the Scientific Football Annuals from 2004 through 2007.

The pool expanded when the threshold was lowered from four to three years. 39 CBs qualified for rankings in the first instance and 64 in this group. Many of the names carry over from the first list, though there are some surprises.

Player-team YPA Avg.
1T. Shawn Springs - Washington 6.0
1T. Deshea Townsend - Pittsburgh 6.0
4T. Ken Lucas - Carolina 6.1
4T. Rod Hood - Arizona 6.1
5. Terence Newman - Dallas 6.3
6. Leigh Bodden - Detroit 6.4
10T. Champ Bailey - Denver 6.5
10T. Fred Smoot - Washington 6.5
10T. Quentin Jammer - San Diego 6.5
10T. Charles Woodson - Green Bay 6.5

Some of the usual suspects are here. Shawn Springs, Deshea Townsend, Ken Lucas, Terence Newman, Quentin Jammer, Fred Smoot and Charles Woodson carry over from the first list.

The must-discussed Champ Bailey shows up, with the more recent weighting increasing the value of his All-World 2006 season.

Who, however, are Rod Hood and Leigh Bodden? Hood was Philly’s nickel back, putting up standout numbers his last two years with the Eagles. They let him go and the Cards are happy to have him. His ‘07 YPA and his three year averages are better than any put up by the better known and much better paid Eagles trio of Sheldon Brown, Lito Sheppard and Asante Samuel.

Bodden may be a guy who helps Matt Millen hang on another year. He had stellar ‘05 and ‘06 YPAs for Cleveland. His average dropped a bit in ‘07 but his picks jumped to six. The Lions snapped him up in free agency and may have gotten a value signing.

Just missing the list: Charles Tillman of Chicago with a 6.6 average YPA and Oakland’s Nnamdi Asomugha, with a 6.7.

Next: Are YPAs like SATs?

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under NFL | 17 Comments 

Adam Jones, CB Rankings and Ken Hamlin’s Best Position: K.C. Joyner Returns, Part I

June 29, 2008

The football scientist K.C. Joyner gave BSR an interview Friday, taking time from finishing Scientific Football 2008 to discuss Adam Jones, the Cowboys incumbent corners, whether Ken Hamlin should be moved to strong safety and other topics. Today, we focus on the defense.

BSR: Adam Jones has finally landed in the Cowboys’ secondary. There’s a lot of discussion on the site about his ability to recover from a year off. I don’t think it’s an issue. He was suspended for being a knucklead. He didn’t miss time for a major injury or behavior that damaged his body, like drug or alcohol abuse. Paul Hornung and Alex Karras missed a full year in ‘63 for gambling. Both played well after they returned and they were both 28 the year they sat. Jones was 24. I think his performance curve can actually improve.

Joyner: I agree. Physiologists and baseball analysts like Bill James say that your physical peak comes around age 27 or 28. Don’t forget that John Riggins also sat out a year and helped win a Super Bowl after he returned.

BSR: I saw a comment from an AFC pro personnel guy who said Jones has talent but was inconsistent while at Tennessee. How much can we expect him to add to the secondary this year?

Joyner: Remember, he’s replacing Jacques Reeves. Reeves had a 7.9 yards per attempt in ‘07. Now, a 7.0 YPA is about league average. Adam Jones had a 5.4 YPA in 2006 (which ranked 8th overall). Jones doesn’t have to equal that to be an improvement. Even if he’s a notch below his ‘06 play he’ll raise the secondary’s play.

As for being inconsistent, you don’t post a 5.4 YPA giving up a lot of big plays. He may have given up a decent throw here and there, but you can’t give up many and post a number like that.

BSR: How did the Cowboys’ regular corners rate?

Joyner: Anthony Henry had a 6.6 YPA. That’s in the top third. Terence Newman had a 6.2 YPA. That’s in the top 20. The Cowboys had a top ten secondary with Reeves starting 13 games. They should be as good or better with Jones.

[Note: Joyner didn't have his rankings handy, but he's on the mark. A 6.2 YPA ranked 15th in both the '05 and '06 CB ratings. A 6.6 YPA ranked 21st and 20th in those years. ]

BSR: There’s been a lot of speculation that the Cowboys will move to Anthony Henry to free safety and Ken Hamlin to strong safety, putting Roy Williams on the bench. Henry hinted at this when Jones got some reps at starting right corner in last week’s mini-camp. But Hamlin was very good at free safety last year. Would Dallas be messing with success to move him?

Joyner: Before Ken Hamlin the Cowboys were awful at free safety. [Note: Keith Davis and Pat Watkins had the worst pass coverage numbers for starting FSs in '05 and '06.]

I think Dallas might be creating one problem by trying to solve another one. I don’t have his stats but Hamlin was very, very good last year. If the Cowboys want to replace Roy Williams at strong safety, they should get another strong safety. Look, I don’t have any problems saying this on the record. I think Roy Williams is just one of those guys, like Randy Moss, who’s going to play his game, the game that he wants to play, no matter what.

BSR: Let’s look at the Dallas secondary in comparison to another top divisional unit. I’ve written a couple of pieces on the NFC and I have the Eagles as my bubble team; I’m putting them outside the playoffs but can see them in if they keep Lito Sheppard. How good can Philly’s secondary be if they keep him?

Joyner: Lito dropped off. He takes chances and has high YPAs but the Eagles put up with it because he made plays and got picks. He’s stopped doing that.

BSR: What did Asante Samuel post last year?

Joyner: He was 7.2. Good, but not great.

I think the Eagles suffered letting nickel back Rod Hood go. He posted a 6.6 YPA for Arizona, which is very respectable. They replaced him with William James, who had a YPA over 11.0 last year, which is one of the worst marks in the league.

– Come back Monday for Part II, where K.C. will discuss Tony Romo’s ‘07, the difficult matchups he faces in ‘08, Patrick Crayton’s value as a number two and whether rumored WR target Joe Horn has anything left.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under Interviews | 12 Comments 

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