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NFC Crystal Ball

June 22, 2008

The preseason magazines have started to appear. We used to rate them here, but gave up because they have this nasty habit of taking last year’s playoff field, adding maybe one “surprise team,” though they often have none.

As we’ve pointed out time and again here, there are on average four teams that go from losing records to the playoffs each year. Most of them have been in the NFC this decade.

Let’s ignore the magazines this time around and make our own picks.

I’ve nominated the Vikings as my new standout team. But let’s take it farther.

1. Pick the six playoff teams.

2. Who will be new to the playoff dance?

3. Any bounce-back teams?

4. Who are ’08’s big droppers?

I’ll take first crack.

1. The playoff six:

  1. Cowboys
  2. Vikings
  3. Saints
  4. Cardinals
  5. Giants
  6. Panthers

2. I have four new playoff teams — the Vikings, Cards, Saints and Panthers. There has been roughly 50% turnover from year to year league wide and I’m seeing more churn in the NFC, which has been the more volatile conference.

My final slot came down to the Eagles and Panthers. I’m giving Carolina the nod today, though I’d like to see Jake Delhomme’s health before I lock this one in.

3. My two NFC loser-to-playoff teams are the Saints and Panthers, with the Vikings and Cardinals moving from 8-8 to the post-season. I also see San Francisco yo-yoing back into contention but just missing the playoffs.

4. Big droppers?

a. The Redskins are trying too much change. They’ve lost their head coach and their DC, which means they’re putting in new offensive and defensive systems. They’re also relying a lot on their first-day receiver and tight end draftees;

b. The Packers should be good but what do we really know about Aaron Rogers. Their division will get tougher, with the Vikings and Bears improving. I don’t see them falling to 6-10 but 9-7 could happen;

c. The Seahawks have lived off their division’s weakness; they’re the only Western team to finish above .500 since 2003. They won 9 games in ‘06 and 10 in ‘07. I see them dropping out of the divisional penthouse with the Cards and 49ers improving. I’ve been burned before picking the Cards but they’ve been building their talent base and can win that division at 10-6 or 9-7.

d. The Bucs jumped back into the race last year by riding their defense. That offense doesn’t scare me. They’ve have 83 quarterbacks, which means they don’t have one. How much longer can Joey Galloway carry that offense?

Your turn.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under NFL | 29 Comments 

Who Are This Year’s Packers?

June 20, 2008

The outlook was lukewarm for Green Bay this time last year — and that’s from their unshakably-sunny fans’ perspective. I remember boos when they picked Justin Harrell with their top selection. The so-called experts didn’t think much of their draft either. Mel Kiper gave it a C+, as did Scott Wright. The team was enduring another will-he-or-won’t-he-retire Brett Favre melodrama.

In the end the team that closed strong to reach 8-8 in ‘06 started strong in ‘07 and zipped to 13-3.

This happens every year. The year before the Saints went from homeless to a good half of play short of the Super Bowl.

I’ve talked a lot about the Fantastic Four, the teams that go from losers to the playoffs, but I want to zero in on the NFC team that will not only improve, but be a legitimate threat in January.

I nominate the Minnesota Vikings.

They had the best run defense I saw last year, with monster DTs Pat Williams and Kevin Williams gumming up everything inside. They have a lethal running game with Chester Taylor and the magnificent Adrian Peterson. They’re already well built on both offensive and defensive lines.

And they got better this offseason, trading for DE Jared Allen and signing WR Bernard Berrian. They only had one first day draft pick, after the Allen deal, but used it on SS Tyrell Johnson, who builds up their weakest defensive unit.

The Vikings have Tarvaris Jackson at QB, so they’ll attempt to play the 2000 Baltimore Ravens model or the Houston Oilers model circa 1977 and 78: ride a stout defense, a top tier running back and an opportunistic passing game to the Super Bowl. Jackson will have some passing options, in Berrian and TE Jim Kleinsasser, but his job description will nonetheless read “busdriver.”

Those Earl Campbell-led Oilers came up short, unable to get past a more balanced Steelers team, but the Ravens won it all. In the era of parity, especially in the NFC, anything is possible. I still prefer Dallas’ chances but I think the Vikings will be throwing their weight around come playoff time.

A Reminder: Check out our “beat down-o-meter” on the right and pinch Donny’s wallet. You’ll get an extra week of camp coverage out of it.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under History, NFL | 14 Comments 

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