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Romo vs. Rogers — Battle of the Young, Old-School QBs

Tony Romo’s sudden success in mid-’06 caught a lot of people by surprise.  Back then we argued here at BSR that Romo was quick to adapt because he was nutured in the old-school, apprentice system that was the standard in the ’60s and ’70s.  A QB, no matter how highly picked, was required to “carry the clipboard” for at least a couple of seasons while he learned the art of quarterbacking.  Think of Craig Morton, a top 5 pick for Dallas in ‘65.  He was Don Meredith’s understudy for four years before becoming a starter.  Roger Staubach was a third year pro before he earned a start.

There was a sound reason for the apprentice method — QBs back then called their own plays.  They were “field generals” to a far greater extent than today’s signal callers, who read miniature play sheets velcroed to their wrists.  Quarterbacking is still a difficult craft to master but putting the play calling on your coordinator shortens the learning curse.

That said, way too many modern QBs are rushed into play.  The good ones, the Payton Mannings, the Troy Aikmans, the Tom Bradys adapt faster.  Romo, being an undrafted free agent from a small school, didn’t have the pressure his big name peers like Quincy Carter, Chad Hutchinson and Drew Henson did.  He could learn and grow without media scrutiny, though backup QBs are some of the NFL’s most popular players, no matter the team or city.

Romo had three years of pro experience before he earned a start.  He was familiar with his offense, his teammates and the speed of the pro game.  Aaron Rogers has started so effectively in Green Bay because he also learned in a pressure-free environment.  Rogers was a first round pick but dropped about 15 to 20 spots below his anticipated range on draft day.  He also backed up Brett Favre, who was in no hurry to retire.

Look at Jacksonville’s David Garrard, who looked like an old pro when Jacksonville finally made him a starter last year.  Look today at New England’s Matt Cassell.  He’s another guy with multiple years of backup experience.  Replacing Tom Brady has not fazed him.  He doesn’t seem to have the superstar potential of Romo and Rogers, but he knows how to move his team and minimize mistakes.

Romo’s and Rogers’ backgrounds suggest an interesting game.  Both are still relative newcomers to their starting lineups, but neither is a newcomer to the pro game.  Another duel, to rival Monday night’s, may be in the offing.

Tom Brady’s Injury: Like Deja Vu All Over Again?

I’ve been sitting on a story for a few months now, and history has forced it into the open. This spring, I put the career stats of Troy Aikman and Tom Brady side-by-side and saw an eerie resemblance. Both played hyper-efficient football, throwing very few interceptions. Aikman’s QB ratings were in the high 80s and low 90s. Until last year’s stunning 117 rating, so were Brady’s.

Both took over their teams at very young ages. Both won three Super Bowls before turning 30. Both won three titles in four years, Aikman when he was 26, 27 and 29, and Brady when he was 24, 26 and 27.

Both then saw their teams dip in performance when each lost a trusted receiver. Aikman, of course, lost Michael Irvin to a suspension and later to a career-ending neck injury. Brady lost Deion Branch when that receiver’s holdout compelled the Patriots to trade him.

Both QBs saw their teams spend big on replacement receivers. The Cowboys signed Rocket Ismail in ‘99 and then flipped two first-round picks to Seattle in 2000 for Joey Galloway. The Patriots sent a 2nd and a 6th to Miami last year for Wes Welker and fleeced the Raiders for Randy Moss, getting the veteran for a 4th round pick.

And that’s where the similarities appeared to end. Dallas’ WR gambits failed. Ismail was good, but not great and Galloway blew out a knee in his Cowboys debut. Welker and Moss had outstanding first seasons with New England and helped them go 16-0.

Aikman’s last great year came in ‘96, at age 30, when he took a one-WR and sometimes no-receiver team to the NFC Divisional round. Then, his team got old and, suddenly, he got old. The truth was clear on an October day at the Meadowlands in 2000 when Troy threw five picks, underthrowing open receiver after open receiver because his bad back had robbed his arm of its deep power. He was finished at age 34.

The 2008 Patriots looked a lot to me like the 1998 and ‘99 Cowboys as a team. The linebacking core was ancient last year and the team is trying to restock it on the fly. The secondary was so-so to begin with and lost Asante Samuel to free agency.

Yet Brady looked better than ever. He had been listed on the league’s injury report for 50 consecutive weeks with a shoulder problem but that was considered gamesmanship, especially given his performance over that time. His ‘07 rating was 25 points better than his second-best campaign. He still had Moss and Welker. Publishing the comparison would look gruesome, making it appear that I was wishing for Brady’s breakdown.

Then, Brady played the Chiefs yesterday and met his own Carson Palmer moment. Where Aikman’s body broke over time, because of too many concussions and too many sacks, Brady’s first after-30 season ended with a sudden, submarine-style blow to the knee. He’ll be 32 when he takes the field again.

Let’s hope Brady’s rehab is successful. Troy’s career ended too quickly and cruelly. To see Tom Brady continue down Troy’s path would be a shame. He and the NFL deserve a better fate.

How ‘Bout That NFC?!

I’m watching the Bears smack the Colts around and I wonder if the NFL’s center of gravity is shifting? Consider the AFC/NFC matchups this weekend:

• Dallas 28, Cleveland 10
• Carolina 26, San Diego 24
• Buffalo 34, Seattle 10
• Chicago 29, Indianapolis 13

Yeah, it’s week one, but look at the assumed cream of the AFC. The Patriots are in disarray, fearful that Tom Brady could be lost for the year with an ACL tear. Carolina didn’t play Steve Smith and still stunned the Chargers. The Colts are sputtering with a rusty Peyton Manning under center. They look a half step slow in comparison to the swarming Bears.

Only Pittsburgh looked dominant in the AFC today. It’s early, but we may be witnessing the AFC dropping back to the NFC’s level, which means the Super Bowl race is truly wide open.

Fun With SF ‘08 II, or why T.O. is Happy With Jason Garrett as O.C.

At Oxnard, I asked Jason Garrett to describe the Cowboys’ offensive philosophy. “People get caught up in names,” I said. “They say this team runs a West Coast offense and that team runs a run-and-shoot. What offensive schools are in your playbook?”

He didn’t give it much thought. “People everywhere in the league run the same things,” he said. “It comes down to putting your people in the right situations…”

Terrell Owens, I think, would heartily agree. When Wade Phillips took over the team he remarked that the ‘06 Cowboys had used Owens almost exclusively at the X position (split end) and that his Cowboys would motion Owens a lot more and try to create more of those favorable matchups that Garrett mentioned.

Mission accomplished. K.C. Joyner’s metrics in his brand new Scientific Football 2008 demonstrate how effective Garrett was at the matchup game with Owens last year and why he’s considered such a hotshot assistant.

Owens, as I mentioned yesterday, had a top-tier overall YPA for 2007. Among receivers who were thrown the ball over 100 times, Owens ranked 2nd behind Reggie Wayne in this metric. And he wasn’t padding his numbers beating up on weaklings, at least not all the time. Owens ranked 4th in YPA when facing top-tier “red” cornerbacks.

A look at the types of matchups Owens faced shows Garrett’s skill. Joyner breaks WR attempts into five categories — attempts versus red, yellow and green corners; attempts versus unranked CBs (those who did not have enough plays to make his final CB rankings) and attempts versus non-CBs.

Owens had 139 attempts last year, meaning Dallas threw him over nine passes per game in his 15 games. Here they are broken down by class:

Terrell Owens	Attempts	% of Att.	YPA
vs. red CBs	18	13	9.4
vs. yellow CBs	47	34	7.3
vs. green CBs	18	13	10.4
vs. non-rated CBs	12	8	4.8
vs. non CBs	44	32	13.3
total	139	100	9.7

Note the solid numbers across the board, with the notable exception of those 12 attempts against Nate Jones-caliber CBs. It’s almost as if T.O. was bored playing against those guys.

The more important stat is the remarkably high percentage of attempts against non-cornerbacks. Teams knew every week that Owens was Dallas’ prime receiving weapon. And with Jason Witten motioning so much into the backfield (he ranked near the bottom among TEs last year in plays where he was “flexed” or used as a WR) you would think secondaries could key on Owens even more.

Yet Garrett was able to get Owens 74 attempts, 53% of his total, against green-level CBs, non-rated CBs or non CBs. And Owens tore up safeties and linebackers. His 13.3 YPA against them ranked only behind Randy Moss’ and Joey Galloway among full-time starters.

When you look at the tiered YPAs the OCs who can best exploit matchups jump out. I mentioned yesterday that Joey Galloway had a poor YPA against red CBs, yet he ranked 3rd overall in raw YPAs. That’s because Jon Gruden got him 54% of his attempts against green-CBs, non-rated CBs and non-CBs.

Want to know why the Patriots set so many offensive records last year? Look at John McDaniel’s success in creating favorable matchups for his guys. Wes Welker had 138 attempts last year and 90 of them, a solid 65% were against non-cornerbacks

Think about that. Teams knew Welker was the Patriots’ second option after Randy Moss and yet they could only get a cornerback of any quality on him one third of the time.

The best OCs can get their best weapons into favorable matchups regularly. Garrett’s success in creating such matchups for T.O. last year is one big reason why Owens was so eager to re-sign with the team. And it’s one more reason why I believe the offense will continue to be successful without a big-name #2 receiver.

I want to thank K.C. Joyner again for allowing me free rein with his stats. Scientific Football 2008 and his new book “Blindsided” can be ordered at: http://thefootballscientist.com

Dallas May Be America’s Team…

but the Patriots are Hungary’s Team, dammit!

Check out this site.

It seems the Hungarians also love themselves some Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cowboys, based on visitors, are mid-pack.

So Sue Me! BSR Roundup, June 26th

– A federal judge has given a New York Jets season-ticket holder more time to amend a lawsuit that seeks millions from the New England Patriots and coach Bill Belichick for “deceiving customers” by videotaping opponents’ signals.

– Failed comedian and social commentator Don Imus’ recent comments about Adam Jones may have killed whatever chance he had of regaining advertisers lost after he was fired by CBS. Proof that sometimes stupidity doesn’t pay.

NFL Trends ‘08 - The Return of Lenny Moore?

Lenny Moore was the first double threat in the modern NFL era. He played halfback and flanker for the Johnny Unitas-led Baltimore Colts in the late ’50s and ’60s and was a blue-chipper at both positions. He made the Hall of Fame and a panel of former players and personnel men recently named him one of the ten best running backs of all time.

Recent news from NFL mini-camps suggests to me that we may see a resurgence in Lenny Moore-type running backs this year.

We have seen two major offensive trends in the recent NFL. One is towards spread offenses, which use base three and four receiver sets. The Patriots’ success last year with a base 3-WR, 1-RB package will no doubt be duplicated in this copycat league. The other sees more teams using running back platoons.

Reports from Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Dallas hint that the OCs there will combine both trends, producing an offense that features two running backs on the field at the same time, with one of the backs displaying Moore’s running and receiving skills.

Let’s begin in Tennessee, where the Titans’ OC Mike Heimerdinger was drawing up plays as fast as his hands could write them at the team’s first camp to get Chris Johnson on the field. His 4.2 speed was evident and the Titans will try to get him on the field in space in combination with Lendale White or Chris Brown. With Vince Young under center, the Titans are the closest thing the NFL has to an option-capable team.

In Pittsburgh, the Steelers are drooling about Rashard Mendenhall’s potential and are trying to get him on the field as much as possible. The linked story says he’s being tried as a kickoff returner but I would not be surprised if the Steelers tried some packages with Mendenhall and Willie Parker together.

Of course, we’ve seen reports from Dallas that have the Cowboys placing Marion Barber and rookie Felix Jones on the field together. Dallas tried this once in a while with Barber and Julius Jones but Felix has better hands and appears to have better open-field moxie than the older Jones.

One more tactic the two-RB package could revive is the no-huddle offense. The Bengals ran a slow version of a no-huddle, called the “sugar huddle” in the late ’80s when Boomer Esiason had Ickey Woods and double threat James Brooks in his backfield. That team would line up at the line of scrimmage and calls plays in a deliberate fashion, looking to take an offsides penalty when a defense tried to make a substitution.

Buffalo ran a more active and lethal version of a no-huddle in the early ’90s with its “K-gun,” a three-WR, one back set with Thurman Thomas in the backfield. Thomas could move all over the field and the Bills would exploit matchups while keeping a defense in its base or nickel packages.

The closest models to what we might see from Jason Garrett this year are the sometimes no-huddle packages the 49ers and Cowboys ran in the mid-90s. Dallas tried a power-version of this set, using FB Daryl Johnston as the flex back. He would move to the slot and sometimes line up wide. Johnston could do his damage — he made some enormous catches in a ‘96 win over the ‘49ers — but no one would ever confuse his moves with Moore’s or Jones’.

In San Francisco, the 49ers would sometimes open a game in their base set, with RB Ricky Watters and FB Tom Rathman in the backfield, and then go no-huddle, moving Watters into the slot or lining him up at flanker. Watters had played receiver while at Notre Dame and was a legitimate receiving threat. Because the defense could not substitute, it would either have to burn a time out or risk matching a LB or S on Watters in space.

Opposing safeties had to respect Jerry Rice and John Taylor’s skills, meaning Watters could run seam and post patterns from the slot and leave linebackers in his dust.

I imagine the Cowboys will use packages that more closely mimic what the 49ers did, with Jones playing Watters’ role. Since Marion Barber is a much better runner than Tom Rathman, and can pass block effectively, opposing linebackers face a conundrum: do they focus on Barber’s inside game and leave Jones in isolation or do they play the pass more and take their chances with Dallas’ run?

Whatever the case, we may have a new nickname for Felix Jones before the season is over — “Lenny.”

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