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Holland = Gesek?

August 28, 2008

In the summer of ‘90, the Cowboys took a small risk and gained a huge reward, shipping a 6th round pick to Oakland for guard John Gesek.  Gesek was never up to the standards of his Cowboys linemates, all of whom made the Pro Bowl.  He was steady, however and earned two Super Bowl rings in ‘92 and ‘93.

Dallas made a similar low-risk move today, sending a 5th round pick in 2010 to Denver for G Montrae Holland.  Holland had fallen out with the Denver coaching staff after reporting overweight and the move seems like an attempt by the Broncos to get something for a player they did not plan on keeping.  (The pick is in 2010, not 2009.)

The former Florida Seminole was a 4th round pick for New Orleans in 2003 and started all sixteen games for Denver last year.

Holland likely moves into the backup guard position and puts backups Joe Berger and James Marten on hot seats.  The team engages in self scouting, ranking its players at every position.  I know that one observer I spoke to rated ‘07 4th rounder Doug Free as 6 on the OL depth chart, but spots 7-9 were in flux.

Assuming backup Pat McQuistan can hold the LG spot while Kosier rehabs (we can’t assume that Holland is in game shape if the Broncos were dissatisfied enough by his conditioning to dump him), the team has a serious problem with coverage behind him.

Free worked almost exclusively at left tackle in camp.  If McQuistan is plugged in as a starter the Cowboys have no adequate backup for RT and at guard.  Consider that McQuistan got many of the starting reps in practice this week, and gets first crack at Kosier’s spot, though he’s only played RT in the preseason games.  This isn’t a good sign for second-unit guards Joe Berger and James Marten.

I’d say Marten is definitely on thin ice and Berger may be as well.  Then again, backup center Cory Procter has had all kinds of trouble with power rushers.  Watch the interior line carefully tonight to see if Berger gets any reps at center.

Holland’s addition means you’ll likely see the last of at least one of the second line C/Gs tonight.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under News | 10 Comments 

NFC Crystal Ball

June 22, 2008

The preseason magazines have started to appear. We used to rate them here, but gave up because they have this nasty habit of taking last year’s playoff field, adding maybe one “surprise team,” though they often have none.

As we’ve pointed out time and again here, there are on average four teams that go from losing records to the playoffs each year. Most of them have been in the NFC this decade.

Let’s ignore the magazines this time around and make our own picks.

I’ve nominated the Vikings as my new standout team. But let’s take it farther.

1. Pick the six playoff teams.

2. Who will be new to the playoff dance?

3. Any bounce-back teams?

4. Who are ’08’s big droppers?

I’ll take first crack.

1. The playoff six:

  1. Cowboys
  2. Vikings
  3. Saints
  4. Cardinals
  5. Giants
  6. Panthers

2. I have four new playoff teams — the Vikings, Cards, Saints and Panthers. There has been roughly 50% turnover from year to year league wide and I’m seeing more churn in the NFC, which has been the more volatile conference.

My final slot came down to the Eagles and Panthers. I’m giving Carolina the nod today, though I’d like to see Jake Delhomme’s health before I lock this one in.

3. My two NFC loser-to-playoff teams are the Saints and Panthers, with the Vikings and Cardinals moving from 8-8 to the post-season. I also see San Francisco yo-yoing back into contention but just missing the playoffs.

4. Big droppers?

a. The Redskins are trying too much change. They’ve lost their head coach and their DC, which means they’re putting in new offensive and defensive systems. They’re also relying a lot on their first-day receiver and tight end draftees;

b. The Packers should be good but what do we really know about Aaron Rogers. Their division will get tougher, with the Vikings and Bears improving. I don’t see them falling to 6-10 but 9-7 could happen;

c. The Seahawks have lived off their division’s weakness; they’re the only Western team to finish above .500 since 2003. They won 9 games in ‘06 and 10 in ‘07. I see them dropping out of the divisional penthouse with the Cards and 49ers improving. I’ve been burned before picking the Cards but they’ve been building their talent base and can win that division at 10-6 or 9-7.

d. The Bucs jumped back into the race last year by riding their defense. That offense doesn’t scare me. They’ve have 83 quarterbacks, which means they don’t have one. How much longer can Joey Galloway carry that offense?

Your turn.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under NFL | 29 Comments 

Who Are This Year’s Packers?

June 20, 2008

The outlook was lukewarm for Green Bay this time last year — and that’s from their unshakably-sunny fans’ perspective. I remember boos when they picked Justin Harrell with their top selection. The so-called experts didn’t think much of their draft either. Mel Kiper gave it a C+, as did Scott Wright. The team was enduring another will-he-or-won’t-he-retire Brett Favre melodrama.

In the end the team that closed strong to reach 8-8 in ‘06 started strong in ‘07 and zipped to 13-3.

This happens every year. The year before the Saints went from homeless to a good half of play short of the Super Bowl.

I’ve talked a lot about the Fantastic Four, the teams that go from losers to the playoffs, but I want to zero in on the NFC team that will not only improve, but be a legitimate threat in January.

I nominate the Minnesota Vikings.

They had the best run defense I saw last year, with monster DTs Pat Williams and Kevin Williams gumming up everything inside. They have a lethal running game with Chester Taylor and the magnificent Adrian Peterson. They’re already well built on both offensive and defensive lines.

And they got better this offseason, trading for DE Jared Allen and signing WR Bernard Berrian. They only had one first day draft pick, after the Allen deal, but used it on SS Tyrell Johnson, who builds up their weakest defensive unit.

The Vikings have Tarvaris Jackson at QB, so they’ll attempt to play the 2000 Baltimore Ravens model or the Houston Oilers model circa 1977 and 78: ride a stout defense, a top tier running back and an opportunistic passing game to the Super Bowl. Jackson will have some passing options, in Berrian and TE Jim Kleinsasser, but his job description will nonetheless read “busdriver.”

Those Earl Campbell-led Oilers came up short, unable to get past a more balanced Steelers team, but the Ravens won it all. In the era of parity, especially in the NFC, anything is possible. I still prefer Dallas’ chances but I think the Vikings will be throwing their weight around come playoff time.

A Reminder: Check out our “beat down-o-meter” on the right and pinch Donny’s wallet. You’ll get an extra week of camp coverage out of it.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under History, NFL | 14 Comments 

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