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Bye-Week Game Thread

OK, the important game is obviously Giants @ Eagles. There are huge implications in the outcome of this game as it pertains to the Cowboys.

The Giants win and they take a stranglehold on the division, having beaten all division opponents once. It would put them 2 games up on the Redskins and 3 games up on the Cowboys and Eagles.

Philadelphia wins and it puts the Cowboys 2 games behind the Giants and one against the Eagles and Redskins, who will host Dallas next week after also having a bye.

I’m torn on this. If I look at it from a standpoint of winning the division, I have to root for the Eagles, as it closes the gap in the division and Dallas has already beaten the Eagles once. If I root for the [gulp] Giants, a win puts the Eagles in last place by way of tiebreaker since Dallas beat them earlier.

Maybe I’ll pull for a tie… Who you got?

Trick or Treat?

My brain keeps running in a mobius strip, going over the same offensive and defensive points.  I think Dallas can keep it close and perhaps win if they can pick Eli.

We’re going on faith that the youngsters can repeat the Bucs performance.  I believe in Orlando Scandrick and am gaining faith in Mike Jenkins.  But Alan Ball?  Hey, I want to believe, mister, but all I have is 30 minutes of play.

Looking at the series the last few years, it’s surprising how often the matchup has confounded the predictors.  Think back to 2005.  The first meeting, in Dallas, pitted two of the hottest offenses in the league.  The Giants had averaged 34 points in their first month.  The Cowboys had averaged 32 points in their three wins, and had dropped 33 on Philly the week before.  The over/under was high.

The game was a 16-13 nail biter.

There has only been one blowout since ‘05, that being the ‘06 Monday Night fiasco where Drew Bledsoe finally cracked and handed the reins to Tony Romo.  Regardless of injures, the Dallas defense matches up pretty well against the Giants.  I’m discounting last year’s opener because those games are outliers, which distort our views of matchups.  In the other two games the Cowboys allowed 20 and 21 points to New York.

The line is Giants by 9.  I’m not a betting guy but I’d take the points if I were.  New York has not overpowered the Cowboys at any time in the last three years.  Unless New York has discovered the perfect steroids- masking drug, I don’t see the Giants suddenly overpowering the Cowboys now — unless Dallas gives them help with turnovers.

The trick for me is getting the Cowboys to 20.  I’m having a hard time getting there.

Come on, Alan Ball…

New York 20, Dallas 16

Your turn.  What’s in your crystal ball?

P.S. — just a hunch, but I think Roy Williams emerges this week.

One Vote for the Rag-Arm

I’m looking at the Cowboys-Giants matchups and I see lots of statistical similarities.  But there’s one stat that’s a Giants walkover:

Turnovers:

• New York — 4
• Dallas — 13

The Giants have turned the ball over in only two games this year, once in their season opener against Washington and three times against the Browns, their only loss so far.

Dallas turned the ball over in every game until last week’s Tampa Bay game.  That blank sheet let them outlast the Bucs 13-9.

Which gets us to this week.  I’ve seen lots of calls for Brooks Bollinger to start over Brad Johnson.  Please.  Raise your hand if you think Bollinger can go four quarters against the Giants rush, in an offense he’s trying to learn on the fly and not commit a turnover.

Bollinger has played a Jim Johnson scheme once.  He replaced Kelly Holcomb in a 23-16 loss to the Eagles last year and was a respectable 7-10 for 94 yards.  But that was in a Vikings uniform.  I don’t know if he’s got the Cowboys’ scheme down, having missed all of training camp.

The Giants are a blitzing team.  They’re good and it and they have to be.  I’m not impressed with their secondary, which has two new safeties and Aaron Ross regressing in his second year.  They’re going to do what they do, overloading the middle of the line, overloading a side, bringing corner blitzes and playing zone and man behind them. They’re a 4-3 version of the Cowboys.

This will leave room for the type of throws Johnson can make.  Slants, crosses, hooks, curls and seams.

If Dallas is going to compete, they’ll need another close game, of the type that they played against the Bucs and the type which the Steelers played against New York last week.   It’s too much to ask Dallas to stop the Giants run.  They’re averaging 5.1 yards an attempt.  But they need to drop this at least a yard.  Hold New York under 4.0 yards a carry and the game goes to Eli.

The Giants are a power team.  They no longer have Tiki Barber or Jeremy Shockey, the two biggest Cowboys killers of the past few years.  They’re a ball-control unit.  They throw deep now and then, but that hasn’t been their way in ‘08.  Plaxico Burress is averaging 12.7 yards a catch, tops among the Giants’ top three WRs and their tight end.  T.O., Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin all average at least 2 yards more than Burress. (Roy Williams’ sample size is way too short to measure.)

The Cowboys didn’t go heavy with rushes last week because they didn’t want Jeff Garcia to break the pocket and make big throws while on the run.  The Cowboys also played with precise lane discipline, to keep Garcia in the middle of the field at all costs.  This cut their rushing abandon as well.

They won’t be so coy this week.  Eli isn’t a scramber.  He’s steady in the pocket and the Giants have protected him very, very well this year, but that’s partly due to their running effectiveness.  He’s rarely in 3rd and longs.

In short, the defense can afford to crowd the line more and both play the run and blitz.  If the Giants come out pass heavy, trying to attack the young corners, they’ll probably do the Cowboys a favor.  They’ll be going against their tendencies.

Something tells me they won’t.  They not the champs for nothing.  They’re not 5-1 for nothing.  The Cowboys will have to prove they can stop Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward.

If they can slow it down, we’ll have to just wait on the old guy.  Hope he hits the slant to Roy Williams when it’s open.  Hit T.O. on his crosses when he’s clear.  Find Martellus Bennett on a seam against the linebackers when the opportunity presents itself. If he does, Dallas can get some short catches and long runs.

Johnson can make these throws.  Whether he will tells the story of this week.  But I put my vote with him, rag arm and all, to make the decisions.  If he takes a handful of sacks but protects the ball, the Cowboys have a chance.

And the Newbies Shall Lead Them

A big tip of the hat today to Tom Ciskowski, the Cowboys Head of Pro and College Scouting.  His guys found Alan Ball in the 7th round last year.  They gave the grades on Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick, whom Dallas traded up to draft in the 1st and 5th rounds.  They were the starting corners in the 2nd half yesterday, after Anthony Henry injured a quad defending a bubble screen to Joey Galloway early in the 3rd.  The kids played as well as guys named Newman, Henry and Jones, keeping Tampa out of the end zone.

The value of the win they helped secure is immense.  Dallas will now go into the bye with a winning record, regardless of what happens in New York.  They get to play with house money in the Meadowlands.  Few people are expecting them to win against the Giants with their deep list of injuries.

And yet, they’ll get a chance to make plays.  They might not get a chance to show it, but Dallas has the weapons to exploit New York’s weakness.  The Giants have a highly rated pass defense, but the New York corners have given up big plays.  Aaron Ross has suffered a sophomore slump.  The Steelers had receivers open in the intermediate zones and deep last week, but could not protect Ben Roethlisberger well enough for him to find them.

The Cowboys may not be able to keep Brad Johnson clean enough to damage the Giants either, but he’ll have targets.  New York won’t sit in cover two shells and take his deep throws away.  That’s not their style.  They’re winning with their pass rush and they’ll dial it up to eleven next week.

This means that simple slants and crossing routes to T.O., Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton will be there.  The lingering question is whether Johnson can connect with them. He’s coated in rust and is missing high with consistency.  The Giants will give him routes he can make and he’s got receivers to get open.  If he can hit just a handful of timing routes the Cowboys should make more plays than they did against Tampa Bay.

On the other side of the ball, the game will be decided on first down.  The Giants run well.  Dallas, until last week, didn’t stop the run well.  We’ll know early if the Tampa Bay game was a fluke.  Some stout run defense will give the secondary a chance.  The Giants are not a speed offense.  They’re a power team.  Their best matchup advantage, Jeremy Shockey, is now a Saint.  Kevin Boss is a possession right end.  They chased Tony Gonzalez at the trade deadline for a reason.

Amani Toomer isn’t a deep threat.  Plaxico Burress hasn’t been one lately either.  Steve Smith is their one big play receiver at the moment and he’s a master of working the middle.  The Cowboys don’t have to respect Eli Manning’s scrambling ability, as they did with Jeff Garcia, so I expect more blitzing this week.  A lot more.

It’s power versus power.  If the Cowboys can slow Brandon Jacobs to three and four yard runs instead of five, six and seven yarders, they’ll be competitive.  If they can complete simple timing routes, they’ll make some plays.  I have not convinced myself to pick them yet, but I’m not as down as a lot of people on these threads appear to be.

For the first time this year, they won’t be favored.  They’ll get to play loose.  I think this will be a real game.

The NFC East is a Beast, and You Should be Ecstatic

The East is 10-2 so far, and both losses have come in divisional games.

The Redskins lone loss came to the Giants.

The Eagles lone loss came in Dallas.

The Cowboys showed the Packers are a pretender.  The Cowboys wore them out so thoroughly, several Packers were getting IVs at halftime.  At Lambeau Field.

The Eagles took arguably the best team in the AFC thus far and beat the snot out of them.  Jim Johnson’s guys sacked Steelers QBs nine times today.  At one point, game announcers were wondering out loud how Dallas could score 41 points on them and not permit a single sack.

The Redskins took a team that may be the class of the NFC West and beat them.

The Giants looked a little ragged against the Bengals, but hey, they’re 3-0.

One of these teams might finish with a winning record and miss the playoffs.  The Eagles were 8-8 last year and finished last.

That narrows the Cowboys margin for error but also improves their post-season chances, should they make the playoffs.  In his new book Blindsided, KC Joyner devotes a chapter to the myth that early schedules ease a team’s route to the offseason.  He goes back to the merger and rates each division from 1-6 in the six division era and 1-8 in the current system.

He finds overwhelming evidence that teams from tough divisions perform better in the post season.  The lowest-rated divisonal winner to win a Super Bowl is the ‘99 Rams, who came from the 6th ranked division.  Teams that feast off weak divisions fold far more often than not in January.

Playing tough rivals toughens you up.  Look at the ‘07 Giants.  They said after their title that Dallas was the toughest opponent they faced.  Michael Strahan said they were much tougher than the Patriots.

That shootout last Monday night will help to steel this team.  Ask Aaron Rodgers and his mates if the Cowboys felt the short week, or the Lambeau Field mystique.

They’ll tell you no, once they pull the IVs from their arms and take their oxygen masks off.

Beware the Week One Rush to Judgement

NFL fans can’t wait. They’ve been without football since early February and they’re getting real football back. Their hearts are racing. Their minds are spinning.

And it leads to outrageous over reactions to good play and bad. I’ve said for years that week one of the NFL schedule is the most overanalyzed. People form hard opinions of teams that are hard to shake.

Week one reveals very litte in the long run. It resembles the end of ‘07 more than it will tell us how ‘08 will unfold. There are several factors that make it unlike any other. First, it’s the only regular season game for most teams where the staffs will have more than three to four days to prepare. For the remainder of the season coaches will have to put Sunday’s game behind them and have fresh game plans ready to install that Wednesday and Thursday.

This week, coaches can unwrap game plans that have been weeks in the making. Dallas started practicing for the Browns last week, when the Vikings were still on their schedule.

There’s the conditioning issue. Some teams have been holding back injured starters to keep them for real games. This means you’ll see teams that might not have their timing down or have the stamina to go 60 minutes. If you saw the Giants/Redskins opener you know what I’m writing. The Giants looked like they were going to run Washington off the field, racing to a second-quarter 16-0 lead. But the game stalled in the second half, where neither team scored a point.

There are teams with new staffs that are learning new systems. They’re often not ready to play their best ball on opening day.

Weeks two and three are much better indicators or what a team will be. Don’t misunderstand, I’m not trying to downplay Dallas’ odds. I think they’ll win, in part because too many Cleveland starters missed too much time this summer, a point I’ll address in the final preview today. That said, there’s a chance parts of the Cowboys game will be ragged.

Think back to last year. The Cowboys won their opener against a division rival and yet a lot of fans were white hot at Wade Phillips because his team gave up 35 points. He was a fraud, they said, a defensive coach with no defense. The secondary was doomed because Terence Newman was hurt.

Was this game a true indicator of the defense’s and the team’s future? No. The Cowboys allowed 20, 10 and 7 points in the next three games and finished the month 4-0.

Root hard, my friends, but don’t root yourself sick. There will be a week two and a week three, and thirteen more game weeks after that.

Everybody Hurts

Update: Osi Umenyiora has a torn MCL and will miss the entire 2008 season.

Update 2: They’re breathing easier in Washington, where Jason Taylor’s knee sprain will only keep him out two weeks.

Update 3:  Dawkins has a “mild sprain” of his ankle and expects to be ready for the Eagles season opener.

Cowboys fans are no doubt concerned about the offensive line’s cohesion after Kyle Kosier sprained his foot. The injury will likely wipe out the first month of his season.

Kosier has plenty of company in the trainer’s room. Every team in the division suffered at least one significant injury last night.

– In New York, they’re sweating Osi Umenyiora’s MRI. He was taken from the field on a cart after injuring his knee. Umenyiora was in extreme pain and told trainers his knee “locked up.” Coach Tom Coughlin said trainers do not believe the DE suffered ligament damage but nobody will know the full extent of Umenyiora’s injury until later today.

If Umenyiora has to miss significant time the team’s defensive strength, their pass rush line, will take a body blow. Michael Strahan is resting in California after retiring. Right now New York may have to open the season without both its starting ends from ‘07. One city paper is already urging Giants GM Jerry Butler to call Strahan and try to coax him back onto the team.

– In Washington, the Redskins are concerned that DE Jason Taylor may have a significant knee injury. He’s also slated for an MRI today after hurting a knee in the 47-3 blowout loss to Carolina. The Redskins acquired Taylor because they had already lost two DEs, one of them ‘07 team sack leader Philip Daniels, for the season.

Washington also lost RT Jon Jansen with a sprained foot. Jansen missed most of ‘07 with an Achilles injury.

– Philadelphia has lost FS Brian Dawkins for an undetermined amount of time because he injured his ankle Saturday night against New England.

The Eagles are already thin at wide receiver, where Kevin Curtis will miss several weeks with a hernia and Reggie Brown is nursing a sore hamstring.

Philly also has questions on the offensive line. C Jamaal Jackson suffered a concussion last night and RG Shawn Andrews is just back after seeking treatment for despression.

The NFL season is a war of attrition. I don’t think so many teams expected to be so worn before it gets started. Add Tom Brady’s and Peyton Manning’s injuries to the equation and injuries rival Gene Upshaw’s death as the top league story heading to opening day.

Browns Unis Offend Football Gods, Lead to Their Humiliation by the Giants

Anybody else watch the Giants-Browns tilt Monday night? It looked like an intriguing matchup of teams Dallas will face this year, but it was a pushover, with New York racing to a 30-3 lead just three minutes into the second quarter.

Cleveland’s offense looked awful. Their defense looked worse. Their special teams worse still. The final embarrassment came when Jamal Lewis fumbled the ball inside the Giants five, only to see it returned for a touchdown. Add Derek Anderson’s concussion and it was a forgettable night for the Browns.

I blame their uniforms.

Look at these abominations:

They’re absolutely schizophrenic. The jerseys are classic Browns, circa 1955. Otto Graham wore that shirt. So did Jim Brown. The pants, on the other hand, are something from Flashdance. All that’s missing are the leg warmers. And dig those two-tone, color-coordinated shoes. Even the cleats match!

Cleveland has one of the most understated, influential uniforms around. The helmets lack a side decal. The white-on-white unis started the home-white trend years before the Cowboys existed. Look at the Packers’ jerseys. Knockoffs of Cleveland’s, especially the sleeves. Look at the Dolphins’ uniforms from their glory days of the early ’70s. They’re replicas of the Browns’ ’50s unis, with aqua and orange replacing the orange and dark brown.

Tonight, Cleveland defamed that uniform, and you can just imagine the ghosts of Paul Brown and Marion Motley shaking their heads in disgust, then causing mischief with the football. All-black, spandex pants look good on Olympic sprinters, not on flabby, big-butted 345 pound linemen. (T.O. wears tights like this — under his regular uniform pants.) The Browns are football players, but they look like they’re late for a Richard Simmons aerobic session.

You simply can’t win looking like this, and Cleveland didn’t come close.

God, I hope the Browns wear them again on opening day against the Cowboys.

NFC Crystal Ball

The preseason magazines have started to appear. We used to rate them here, but gave up because they have this nasty habit of taking last year’s playoff field, adding maybe one “surprise team,” though they often have none.

As we’ve pointed out time and again here, there are on average four teams that go from losing records to the playoffs each year. Most of them have been in the NFC this decade.

Let’s ignore the magazines this time around and make our own picks.

I’ve nominated the Vikings as my new standout team. But let’s take it farther.

1. Pick the six playoff teams.

2. Who will be new to the playoff dance?

3. Any bounce-back teams?

4. Who are ’08’s big droppers?

I’ll take first crack.

1. The playoff six:

1. Cowboys
2. Vikings
3. Saints
4. Cardinals
5. Giants
6. Panthers

2. I have four new playoff teams — the Vikings, Cards, Saints and Panthers. There has been roughly 50% turnover from year to year league wide and I’m seeing more churn in the NFC, which has been the more volatile conference.

My final slot came down to the Eagles and Panthers. I’m giving Carolina the nod today, though I’d like to see Jake Delhomme’s health before I lock this one in.

3. My two NFC loser-to-playoff teams are the Saints and Panthers, with the Vikings and Cardinals moving from 8-8 to the post-season. I also see San Francisco yo-yoing back into contention but just missing the playoffs.

4. Big droppers?

a. The Redskins are trying too much change. They’ve lost their head coach and their DC, which means they’re putting in new offensive and defensive systems. They’re also relying a lot on their first-day receiver and tight end draftees;

b. The Packers should be good but what do we really know about Aaron Rogers. Their division will get tougher, with the Vikings and Bears improving. I don’t see them falling to 6-10 but 9-7 could happen;

c. The Seahawks have lived off their division’s weakness; they’re the only Western team to finish above .500 since 2003. They won 9 games in ‘06 and 10 in ‘07. I see them dropping out of the divisional penthouse with the Cards and 49ers improving. I’ve been burned before picking the Cards but they’ve been building their talent base and can win that division at 10-6 or 9-7.

d. The Bucs jumped back into the race last year by riding their defense. That offense doesn’t scare me. They’ve have 83 quarterbacks, which means they don’t have one. How much longer can Joey Galloway carry that offense?

Your turn.

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